KMPX [202301]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 202301
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
601 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0550 PM HAIL GOLDEN VALLEY 44.99N 93.36W
09/20/2007 E1.00 INCH HENNEPIN MN NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

$$

CARLYON

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KMPX [202255]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 202255
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
555 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0550 PM HAIL NEW HOPE 45.04N 93.39W
09/20/2007 E0.75 INCH HENNEPIN MN CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

$$

CARLYON

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KMPX [202251]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 202251
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
551 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0550 PM TSTM WND DMG GOLDEN VALLEY 44.99N 93.36W
09/20/2007 HENNEPIN MN NWS EMPLOYEE

TREES DOWN...POWER OUT.

&&

$$

CARLYON

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KMPX [202247]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 202247
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
547 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0534 PM TSTM WND DMG WATERTOWN 44.96N 93.85W
09/20/2007 CARVER MN AMATEUR RADIO

TREES DOWN...JUST NORTH OF TOWN. 4-6 INCH BRANCHES DOWN
IN TOWN.

0538 PM HAIL PLYMOUTH 45.02N 93.46W
09/20/2007 E0.88 INCH HENNEPIN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0527 PM HAIL LORETTO 45.06N 93.64W
09/20/2007 E0.75 INCH HENNEPIN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

CARLYON

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 674

WWUS20 KWNS 202242
SEL4
SPC WW 202242
MNZ000-WIZ000-210600-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 674
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
535 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 535 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF EAU CLAIRE WISCONSIN TO 65 MILES EAST OF EAU CLAIRE
WISCONSIN. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 673...

DISCUSSION...SLIGHTLY ELEVATED MCS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS NOW IN
THE TWIN CITIES AREA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GENERALLY E INTO WI
THROUGH MID EVENING. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY CONTINUE TO OCCUR
ON SSW FLANK OF SYSTEM...I.E. IN DIRECTIONAL OF 40+ KT LLJ.
RECOVERING AIR MASS ALONG AND N OF WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESE INTO
CNTRL WI SHOULD ALLOW SVR THREAT TO PERSIST DESPITE FACT THAT
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL BECOME FARTHER REMOVED FROM GREATEST ELEVATED
THETA-E INFLOW. WHILE A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...MAIN THREATS
SHOULD BE WIND/HAIL GIVEN CURRENT AND EXPECTED STORM MODE...AND LESS
FAVORABLE SFC WARM SECTOR AIR MASS WITH EWD EXTENT.
FARTHER N...OTHER MORE ELEVATED STORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE E ACROSS
NW WI. THESE SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY BECOME FURTHER ELEVATED AND
INCREASINGLY REMOVED FROM ELEVATED MOIST INFLOW.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27035.

..CORFIDI

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1988

ACUS11 KWNS 202228
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202227
NEZ000-SDZ000-210000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1988
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0527 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 202227Z - 210000Z

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS ACROSS CNTRL AND NE NEB. SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. WW ISSUANCE REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INCREASES EARLY THIS
EVENING.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SWD FROM SW SD
ACROSS WRN NEB. AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
MAXIMIZED ALONG A NARROW AXIS FROM MCCOOK NEWD TO NEAR O'NEILL NEB.
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS CORRIDOR ALONG THE
WRN EDGE OF BOTH STRONG INSTABILITY AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET.
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THAT
STRONG AND SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS KEEP THE ACTIVITY RELATIVELY
ISOLATED EARLY THIS EVENING. THE MOST WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ACROSS NE NEB WHERE MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN AREAS FURTHER SOUTHWEST.

THE LATEST PROFILER FROM MCCOOK SUGGESTS 30 TO 35 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR
EXISTS IN SCNTRL NEB. THIS APPEARS REPRESENTATIVE OF THE SHEAR
ACROSS MOST OF CNTRL AND NE NEB AS WELL WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES EVIDENT ON OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ALSO SUGGESTS ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

.BROYLES.. 09/20/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...GID...LBF...UNR...

40360044 40580078 41020087 42130031 42810007 43239961
43039853 42239849 40879920 40359983

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KMPX [202227]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 202227
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
527 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0415 PM TSTM WND DMG MORA 45.88N 93.29W
09/20/2007 KANABEC MN TRAINED SPOTTER

HIGH WINDS. MANY TREES DOWN IN CITY. 18 INCHS IN
DIAMETER. MINOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO SOME HOMES.

0527 PM HAIL HANOVER 45.16N 93.66W
09/20/2007 E0.75 INCH HENNEPIN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

CARLYON

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KMPX [202223]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 202223
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
523 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0523 PM HAIL BUFFALO 45.18N 93.87W
09/20/2007 E1.00 INCH WRIGHT MN TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

CARLYON

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KMPX [202223]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 202223
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
523 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0522 PM HAIL MAPLE PLAIN 45.01N 93.66W
09/20/2007 E0.88 INCH HENNEPIN MN AMATEUR RADIO

&&

$$

CARLYON

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KMPX [202222]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 202222
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
522 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0520 PM HAIL WATERTOWN 44.96N 93.85W
09/20/2007 E1.75 INCH CARVER MN PUBLIC

0520 PM HAIL PLYMOUTH 45.02N 93.46W
09/20/2007 E0.88 INCH HENNEPIN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

CARLYON

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KMPX [202220]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 202220
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
519 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0515 PM HAIL BUFFALO 45.18N 93.87W
09/20/2007 E1.00 INCH WRIGHT MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0517 PM HAIL DELANO 45.04N 93.79W
09/20/2007 E0.88 INCH WRIGHT MN TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

CARLYON

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KMPX [202217]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 202217
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
517 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0505 PM HAIL MONTROSE 45.07N 93.91W
09/20/2007 E0.75 INCH WRIGHT MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0512 PM HAIL 2 SW BUFFALO 45.16N 93.90W
09/20/2007 E1.00 INCH WRIGHT MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0505 PM HAIL WAVERLY 45.07N 93.97W
09/20/2007 E1.75 INCH WRIGHT MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0510 PM HAIL 2 N MONTROSE 45.10N 93.91W
09/20/2007 E1.75 INCH WRIGHT MN TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

CARLYON

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KTBW [202211]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTBW 202211
LSRTBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
611 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0558 PM TSTM WND GST 2 SE ODESSA 28.18N 82.56W
09/20/2007 M62 MPH PASCO FL PUBLIC

MEASURED AT HOME WEATHER STATION.

&&

$$

RJS

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KABR [202200]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KABR 202200
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
500 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0730 AM HAIL 5 NW TORONTO 44.62N 96.71W
09/20/2007 E1.00 INCH DEUEL SD PUBLIC

ALSO 60+MPH WIND GUSTS ESTIMATED WITH FALLEN BRANCHES.

&&

$$

NWSABR

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KMPX [202156]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 202156
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
455 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0454 PM HAIL COKATO 45.08N 94.19W
09/20/2007 E0.75 INCH WRIGHT MN AMATEUR RADIO

&&

$$

CARLYON

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KMPX [202148]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 202148
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
448 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0415 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 S MORA 45.85N 93.29W
09/20/2007 KANABEC MN TRAINED SPOTTER

LARGE PINE TREES DOWN.

&&

$$

CARLYON

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KTBW [202142]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTBW 202142
LSRTBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
542 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0518 PM TSTM WND GST 5 SE TAMPA 27.91N 82.42W
09/20/2007 M44 MPH HILLSBOROUGH FL C-MAN STATION

MEASURED AT PORT OF TAMPA.

&&

$$

RJS

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KMPX [202136]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 202136
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
436 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0425 PM HAIL LITCHFIELD 45.12N 94.53W
09/20/2007 E0.88 INCH MEEKER MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0410 PM TSTM WND DMG ISANTI 45.49N 93.25W
09/20/2007 ISANTI MN PUBLIC

20 INCH DIAMETER TREE DOWN ACROSS ROAD.

0430 PM TSTM WND DMG LITCHFIELD 45.12N 94.53W
09/20/2007 MEEKER MN AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON MOBILE HOME NORTH SIDE OF LITCHFIELD.

0433 PM HAIL LITCHFIELD 45.12N 94.53W
09/20/2007 E1.75 INCH MEEKER MN AMATEUR RADIO

&&

$$

CARLYON

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KMPX [202126]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 202126
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
426 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0423 PM TSTM WND DMG LITCHFIELD 45.12N 94.53W
09/20/2007 MEEKER MN AMATEUR RADIO

22 INCH DIAMETER TREES DOWN.

&&

$$

CARLYON

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KMPX [202124]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 202124
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
423 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0418 PM TSTM WND DMG LITCHFIELD 45.12N 94.53W
09/20/2007 MEEKER MN AMATEUR RADIO

TREES SHREADED.

&&

$$

CARLYON

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KJAX [202123]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 202123
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
523 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0415 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 WNW SILVER SPRINGS SH 29.13N 82.05W
09/20/2007 MARION FL UTILITY COMPANY

A POWERLINE DOWN WITH OVER 700 RESIDENTS WITHOUT POWER
BETWEEN BETWEEN 415 PM TO 500 PM.

&&

$$

ARS

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KMPX [202113]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 202113
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
412 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0410 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 N SAUK CENTRE 45.77N 94.96W
09/20/2007 STEARNS MN TRAINED SPOTTER

4.85 INCHES RAIN SINCE 1000 AM. SPOTTER REPORTS ONE FOOT
DEEP IN TOWN AT RAILROAD CROSSING.

&&

$$

CARLYON

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KABR [202059]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KABR 202059
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
359 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0735 AM TSTM WND DMG 5 S CLEAR LAKE 44.69N 96.68W
09/20/2007 DEUEL SD PUBLIC

LARGE TREE BRANCHES AND LIMBS BROKEN ALONG HIGHWAY 15

&&

$$

NWSABR

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 673

WWUS20 KWNS 202047
SEL3
SPC WW 202047
MNZ000-210300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 673
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
345 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 345 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTHWEST OF
REDWOOD FALLS MINNESOTA TO 25 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF MINNEAPOLIS
MINNESOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES WELL N OF THE SURFACE
WARM FRONT...WHICH HAS NOW DEVELOPED NWD INTO THE MSP AREA. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM/MOISTEN S OF THE BOUNDARY...AND
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN FOR SURFACE-BASED
PARCELS ACROSS SW AND S CENTRAL MN. THE NEWER STORM DEVELOPMENT TO
THE W OF MSP MAY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...BUT IT IS VERY CLOSE
TO SURFACE BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PRESENT...ANY
STORMS ROOTED IN THE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
TORNADOES. OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH LATE EVENING.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26030.

..THOMPSON

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1987

ACUS11 KWNS 202048
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202048
FLZ000-GAZ000-202315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1987
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL...FAR SERN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 202048Z - 202315Z

A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH AN ISOLATED BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO
POSSIBLE.

MARGINAL INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS NRN FL/SRN GA WHERE SOME
HEATING HAS TAKEN PLACE. SLIGHTLY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR EXISTS
ALONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY FROM SRN GA INTO FAR NRN FL
WHERE SURFACE WINDS BACK FROM ELY TO NELY. CURRENT VWPS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATING 0-1 KM SRH ON THE ORDER OF 100-200 M2/S2.

LARGE SCALE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD SURFACE LOW AS WELL AS
SEA BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS STORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY HAVE AN INCREASED THREAT OF
ROTATION AND PERHAPS A WEAK TORNADO AS THEY MOVE NWD INTO A STRONGER
LOW LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. OVERALL THREAT SHOULD DECREASE CLOSER
TO SUNSET WHEN AIR MASS STABILIZES.

.JEWELL.. 09/20/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

29108107 28658108 28658138 28698151 28928186 29198261
29228275 29968379 30328379 30698346 30938309 31188282
31368229 31508160 31308129 30658140

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1986

ACUS11 KWNS 202017
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202016
MNZ000-202215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1986
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0316 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 202016Z - 202215Z

SRN MN IS BEING MONITORED FOR SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. TRENDS ARE BEING
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE TORNADO WATCH.

CLUSTER OF ELEVATED STORMS CONTINUES PROGRESSING EWD THROUGH E CNTRL
MN CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EMANATING
FROM THIS ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED SWD INTO SRN MN REINFORCING THE
BOUNDARY ALREADY IN PLACE OVER THIS REGION. NEW STORMS ARE
DEVELOPING OVER CHIPPEWA COUNTY APPARENTLY ALONG WRN END OF THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE LIFT AND THETA-E ADVECTION ARE MAXIMIZED
ALONG 60+ KT SWLY LOW LEVEL JET. THE WARM SECTOR CONTINUES TO
DESTABILIZE WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS
RISING INTO THE 60S CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG
OVER SWRN MN. STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARE IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO FEED OF UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR AND MAY
INTENSIFY AS THEY DEVELOP EWD. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS ALONG THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS OVER SRN MN ARE FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE
HAIL AND TORNADOES WITH ANY SURFACE BASED STORMS THAT MANAGE TO
DEVELOP. SPACIAL EXTENT OF TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED BY
SHARPLY COOLER AIR NORTH OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...SUGGESTING BEST
TORNADIC POTENTIAL WILL BE WITH STORMS THAT CAN MOVE EWD ALONG THE
BOUNDARY.

.DIAL.. 09/20/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...

44019391 44149556 44489638 45089578 45129451 45079311
44639278 44249316

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KMPX [202012]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 202012
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
311 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0257 PM TSTM WND DMG ST STEPHEN 45.70N 94.28W
09/20/2007 STEARNS MN AMATEUR RADIO

20 INCH TREE DOWN.

0257 PM TSTM WND DMG ST STEPHEN 45.70N 94.28W
09/20/2007 STEARNS MN AMATEUR RADIO

PARTIAL BARN ROOF BLOWN OFF.

0259 PM TSTM WND DMG SARTELL 45.62N 94.21W
09/20/2007 STEARNS MN AMATEUR RADIO

MULTIPLE ONE AND A HALF TO TWO FOOT TREES DOWN.

0304 PM TSTM WND DMG SARTELL 45.62N 94.21W
09/20/2007 STEARNS MN AMATEUR RADIO

TIN OF MEDICAL BUILDING ROOF BLOWN OFF.

&&

$$

CARLYON

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KGGW [201949]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KGGW 201949
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
148 PM MDT THU SEP 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1155 PM HAIL 17 SW GLENDIVE 46.93N 104.97W
09/19/2007 E0.75 INCH DAWSON MT PUBLIC

0115 AM HAIL 3 N LINDSAY 47.26N 105.15W
09/20/2007 E0.75 INCH DAWSON MT PUBLIC

0130 AM TSTM WND GST 8 W LINDSAY 47.21N 105.32W
09/20/2007 E60.00 MPH DAWSON MT TRAINED SPOTTER

WIND ESTIMATED AT 50 TO 60 MPH.

0132 PM HAIL LINDSAY 47.22N 105.15W
09/20/2007 E0.75 INCH DAWSON MT PUBLIC

HAIL COVERED GROUND

0132 PM HAIL 8 NW LINDSAY 47.30N 105.27W
09/20/2007 E0.75 INCH DAWSON MT PUBLIC

SMALL DRIFTS OF HAIL

&&

$$

RSMITH

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 201944
SWODY1
SPC AC 201941

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0241 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2007

VALID 202000Z - 211200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN
PLAINS TO THE UPR MS VLY...

..NRN PLAINS TO THE UPR MS VLY...
MID-AFTN SFC ANALYSIS PLACED A 1004 MB LOW S OF KBIS WITH A
LEE-TROUGH SWD INTO NCNTRL NEB AND NWD INTO SERN SASK. ONGOING
ELEVATED TSTM CLUSTERS CONTINUE TO ENHANCE A BAROCLINIC ZONE SEWD
FROM THE LOW ACROSS NERN SD AND SRN MN.

REGIONAL VWPS/PROFILERS CONFIRM EARLIER GUIDANCE IN SHIFTING THE 50
KT SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET NEWD WITH TIME THIS AFTN. STG-SVR ELEVATED
TSTM CLUSTERS THAT HAVE AFFECTED CNTRL MN MOST OF THE DAY HAVE BEEN
WEAKENING AND SHIFTING NEWD IN TANDEM WITH THIS JET. ADDITIONAL
ELEVATED STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG THE
SWRN FLANK OF THE MCS AS THE ENHANCED SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IMPINGES
ON THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS
GUSTY WINDS.

SOUTH OF THE FRONT...AIRMASS HAS HEATED CONSIDERABLY OWING TO AMPLE
INSOLATION AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. THE 18Z ABR SOUNDING...
HOWEVER...SAMPLED A STOUT EML /CINH OF 138 J/KG/. ABSENCE OF
MEANINGFUL LARGE SCALE FORCING IN WAKE OF THE MORNING MID-LEVEL WAVE
SUGGESTS THAT HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE NEEDED
TO INITIATE SFC-BASED STORMS /CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE OF 94 DEG F/.
GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE EML AND THE WARM TEMPERATURES
NEEDED...UNCERTAINTY HAS NOT DECREASED WITH RESPECT TO SFC-BASED
INITIATION. NONETHELESS...GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE RUC/WRF...
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SFC-BASED STORMS AND THIS OTLK
WILL REFLECT CONDITIONAL SVR PROBABILITIES. RECENT DEVELOPMENT
NEAR/NORTH OF WOOD LAKE MN CLOSER TO THE FRONT MAY BE SIGNS THAT
EARLIER GUIDANCE WILL NOT BE TOTALLY OFF-BASE. GIVEN A STORM...THE
VERTICAL SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...DMGG WIND GUSTS AND ISOLD
TORNADOES.

OTHERWISE...STRONG MID-LEVEL WAVE DIGGING THROUGH ALBERTA WILL REACH
THE NRN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT. STRONG ASCENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
SECONDARY ENHANCEMENT OF THE SLY LL-FLOW LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
DEEPENING CYCLONE OVER ND. TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE WARM
ADVECTION REGIME WHERE LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL REMAIN QUITE STEEP AND
BULK SHEAR STRONG. AS A RESULT...A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS ACROSS PARTS OF ND.

.RACY.. 09/20/2007

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KGGW [201936]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGGW 201936
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
135 PM MDT THU SEP 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0132 PM HAIL LINDSAY 47.22N 105.15W
09/20/2007 E0.75 INCH DAWSON MT PUBLIC

HAIL COVERED GROUND

0132 PM HAIL 8 NW LINDSAY 47.30N 105.27W
09/20/2007 E0.75 INCH DAWSON MT PUBLIC

SMALL DRIFTS OF HAIL

&&

$$

RSMITH

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KMPX [201915]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected...time

NWUS53 KMPX 201915 CCA
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED...TIME
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
212 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

200 PM FLASH FLOOD SAUK CENTRE 45.74N 94.96W
09/20/2007 STEARNS MN LAW ENFORCEMENT

ROADS ARE GETTING BARRICADED AROUND TOWN...DUE TO
FLOODING.

&&
CORRECTED TIME...AND SOURCE.
$$

CARLYON

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KMPX [201912]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 201912
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
212 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1042 AM FLASH FLOOD SAUK CENTRE 45.74N 94.96W
09/20/2007 STEARNS MN TRAINED SPOTTER

ROADS ARE GETTING BARRICADED AROUND TOWN...DUE TO
FLOODING.

&&

$$

CARLYON

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KTBW [201911]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTBW 201911
LSRTBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
311 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0255 PM WATER SPOUT 2 SW LONGBOAT KEY 27.40N 82.67W
09/20/2007 GMZ853 FL NEWSPAPER

NEWS MEDIA RELAYED PUBLIC REPORT OF WATERSPOUT NEARING
SHORE OFF LONGBOAT KEY. EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION
UNCERTAIN.

&&

$$

RJS

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KJAX [201906]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 201906
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
306 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 PM FLOOD HILLIARD 30.69N 81.92W
09/20/2007 NASSAU FL NWS EMPLOYEE

CAR STUCK IN MUD ON DIRT ROAD- POOLE RD.- NEAR HILLIARD.

&&

$$

MZ

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KCHS [201858]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 201858
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
258 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0225 PM HIGH SURF FOLLY BEACH 32.65N 79.94W
09/20/2007 CHARLESTON SC PARK/FOREST SRVC

FOLLY BEACH COUNTY PARK SERVICES REPORTED 4 TO 5 FOOT
BREAKERS.

0226 PM HIGH SURF 10 E SHELLMAN BLUFF 31.57N 81.15W
09/20/2007 LIBERTY GA PUBLIC

1 RIP CURRENT HAS BEEN REPORTED ON THE SOUTH TIP OF ST.
CATHERINES ISLAND. 4 TO 5 FOOT BREAKERS WERE ALSO
REPORTED.

0227 PM HIGH SURF 8 SE HALFMOON LANDING 31.62N 81.18W
09/20/2007 LIBERTY GA PUBLIC

1 RIP CURRENT REPORTED NEAR MCQUEENS INLET. 4 TO 5 FOOT
BREAKERS WERE ALSO REPORTED.

0228 PM HIGH SURF KIAWAH ISLAND 32.61N 80.08W
09/20/2007 CHARLESTON SC PARK/FOREST SRVC

KIAWAH ISLAND COUNTY PARK SERVICES REPORTED 3 TO 5 FOOT
BREAKERS.

&&

$$

REV

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KABR [201849]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KABR 201849
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
149 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 AM HAIL 6 E HENRY 44.88N 97.34W
09/20/2007 E1.75 INCH CODINGTON SD PUBLIC

&&

$$

NWSABR

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KABR [201819]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KABR 201819
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
119 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0342 AM TSTM WND GST 12 S BRISTOL 45.17N 97.75W
09/20/2007 E60 MPH DAY SD PUBLIC

ESTIMATED WIND GUST OF 60 MPH.

0345 AM HAIL 24 N HIGHMORE 44.87N 99.44W
09/20/2007 E0.75 INCH HYDE SD PUBLIC

0400 AM HAIL 9 S SENECA 44.93N 99.51W
09/20/2007 E1.75 INCH FAULK SD PUBLIC

MOSTLY QUARTER SIZE HAIL WITH A FEW GOLF BALL SIZE.

0455 AM HAIL 5 E NORBECK 45.19N 99.10W
09/20/2007 E0.88 INCH FAULK SD PUBLIC

0452 AM HAIL 6 W DOLAND 44.89N 98.22W
09/20/2007 E0.88 INCH SPINK SD PUBLIC

0600 AM HAIL 9 S BRISTOL 45.22N 97.75W
09/20/2007 E0.88 INCH DAY SD PUBLIC

ALSO MEASURED 4.60 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.

0600 AM HAIL 6 W HENRY 44.88N 97.59W
09/20/2007 E1.75 INCH CLARK SD PUBLIC

0620 AM HAIL 10 S BRISTOL 45.20N 97.75W
09/20/2007 E1.00 INCH DAY SD PUBLIC

1021 AM HAIL MILBANK 45.22N 96.63W
09/20/2007 E0.88 INCH GRANT SD CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

$$

NWSABR

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KMPX [201802]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 201802
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
101 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1258 PM HAIL STARBUCK 45.61N 95.53W
09/20/2007 E1.00 INCH POPE MN LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

TDK

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KMFL [201748]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 201748
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
147 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1255 PM TSTM WND DMG TAMARAC 26.21N 80.27W
09/20/2007 BROWARD FL LAW ENFORCEMENT

POWERLINES DOWN AT COMMERCIAL BLVD AND 70TH AVE

&&

$$

BRABANDER

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 201730
SWODY2
SPC AC 201728

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2007

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPR MS
VLY AND WRN GRTLKS REGION...

..UPR MS VLY/UPR GRTLKS REGION...
POTENT MID-LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY DIGGING SEWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES WILL REACH THE NRN PLAINS TONIGHT...THEN TRANSLATE EWD INTO
THE UPR GRTLKS REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY 90+ METER/12 HR HEIGHT FALLS AND 75+ KT H5 WINDS. A
SFC LOW OVER ERN ND AT 12Z FRI WILL DEEPEN INTO A SUB-990 MB LOW AS
IT MOVES INTO NRN ONTARIO BY 00Z SAT. TRAILING THIS LOW...A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SEWD ACROSS THE UPR MS VLY AND UPR GRTLKS FRI
AFTN/NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE SVR TSTMS.

PRE-EXISTING STRONG SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A HEALTHY ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE UPR
MS VLY REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
SEVERAL TSTM CLUSTERS OVER A BROAD AREA FROM NRN/CNTRL MN EWD INTO
NRN WI...SOME WITH LARGE HAIL...FRIDAY MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD SHIFT ENEWD TOWARD THE LAKE SUPERIOR AREA BY AFTN.

AIR MASS WILL LIKELY DESTABILIZE S OF THE MORNING ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE UPR MS VLY...THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW MORNING
ACTIVITY WILL MODULATE THE NWD EXPANSION OF THIS INSTABILITY AXIS.
CURRENT ANTICIPATION IS FOR AN AXIS OF 1000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE TO
EXIST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM NERN IA INTO NWRN WI BY EARLY
AFTN. AS STRONGER ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE WARM SECTOR...TSTMS SHOULD
ERUPT ALONG THE FRONT. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT BOTH LOW AND
DEEP LAYER SHEARS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL.
IF CELLS CAN REMAIN DISCRETE FOR A SUFFICIENT TIME...TORNADOES MAY
OCCUR. BUT...ORIENTATION OF THE 2-8KM SHEAR WITH RESPECT TO THE
BOUNDARY AND MAGNITUDE OF THE FORCING SHOULD YIELD A SQUALL LINE
WITH PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS. THE STORMS SHOULD PEAK IN INTENSITY
BY LATE AFTN...THEN WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING BEFORE REACHING LAKE
MI.

..CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST...
NON-TROPICAL UPR LOW WEST OF THE FL PENINSULA MAY ACQUIRE
SUB-TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND DRIFT WWD JUST OFF THE CNTRL/ERN
GULF COAST ON FRIDAY. RATHER STRONG BELT OF SLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW/SHEAR WILL EXIST ALONG THE ERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. COUPLED
WITH LOW LCL/S AND THREAT FOR CONVECTIVE BANDS MOVING
ONSHORE...THREAT FOR ISOLD TORNADOES WILL EXIST.

..LWR CO RVR VLY NWD INTO THE SRN NV...
BROAD WARM CONVEYOR WILL EVOLVE WELL AHEAD OF THE UPR LOW OFF THE
SRN CA COAST FRIDAY AFTN/NIGHT. INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO SPORADIC HIGH-BASED TSTMS...PARTICULARLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN STRADDLING THE LWR CO RVR. ISOLD STORMS MAY
PRODUCE GUSTY/SVR WINDS.

..SRN CA COAST INCLUDING THE CHANNEL ISLANDS...
UPR LOW DRIFTING S OFF THE SANTA BARBARA COAST TODAY WILL BEGIN TO
REVERSE COURSE AND EJECT NEWD INTO SRN CA BY 12Z SATURDAY. COLDEST
TEMPERATURES ALOFT /H5 AOB MINUS 20 DEG C/ ASSOCD WITH THE LOW WILL
SPREAD NEWD FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY...CONTRIBUTING TO STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING TSTM PROBABILITIES. STRONGEST FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL LIKELY ARRIVE LATE IN THE PERIOD AND SUPPORT BANDS
OF TSTMS MOVING NEWD THROUGH THE CHANNEL ISLANDS AND APPROACHING THE
SRN CA COASTLINE BY 12Z SATURDAY. ISOLD STORMS COULD PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AND PERHAPS WATERSPOUTS/TORNADOES.

.RACY.. 09/20/2007

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KMPX [201705]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 201705
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1205 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1202 PM HAIL MELROSE 45.68N 94.81W
09/20/2007 M0.75 INCH STEARNS MN AMATEUR RADIO

MEASURED 0.8 INCH DIAMETER.

&&

$$

TDK

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KFSD [201650]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFSD 201650
LSRFSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1150 AM CDT THU SEP 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 AM HAIL 6 ENE BADGER 44.53N 97.11W
09/20/2007 E1.00 INCH BROOKINGS SD PUBLIC

&&

$$

PS

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KAMA [201648]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KAMA 201648
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1148 AM CDT THU SEP 20 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0645 PM TSTM WND DMG 19 E DUMAS 35.86N 101.63W
09/19/2007 MOORE TX EMERGENCY MNGR

EMERGENCY MANAGER IN MOORE COUNTY CONFIRMED PREVIOUS
REPORT OF POWER LINES DOWN. HE INDICATED THAT 6
TELEPHONE POLES WERE SNAPPED...ALL POINTING TO THE NE.
THIS WAS JUST WEST OF FARM ROAD 1060 ON HWY 152 IN MOORE
COUNTY.

0646 PM HAIL 11 SW GRUVER 36.14N 101.55W
09/19/2007 E1.00 INCH HANSFORD TX PUBLIC

ALONG FM 520

0649 PM TSTM WND GST GRUVER 36.26N 101.41W
09/19/2007 M69 MPH HANSFORD TX BROADCAST MEDIA

0725 PM TSTM WND GST 5 NE PRINGLE 36.00N 101.39W
09/19/2007 E60 MPH HUTCHINSON TX PUBLIC

REPORTED SOME BRANCHES BROKEN AND OBJECTS RELOCATED ON
HIS PROPERTY JUST BEFORE 730 PM...TIME ESTIMATED.

0730 PM FLASH FLOOD 4 NNE PRINGLE 36.00N 101.43W
09/19/2007 HUTCHINSON TX PUBLIC

8 TO 12 INCHES OF FAST FLOWING WATER OVER COUNTY ROAD E

&&

$$

KRAMAR

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KMPX [201644]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 201644
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1144 AM CDT THU SEP 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1125 AM HAIL 4 S BELGRADE 45.39N 95.00W
09/20/2007 E0.88 INCH KANDIYOHI MN LAW ENFORCEMENT

RELAYED VIA HAM RADIO.

1135 AM HAIL BROOTEN 45.50N 95.12W
09/20/2007 E0.88 INCH STEARNS MN LAW ENFORCEMENT

RELAYED VIA HAM RADIO.

&&

$$

TDK

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KFGF [201643]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 201643
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
1143 AM CDT THU SEP 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1037 AM HAIL CROOKSTON 47.77N 96.61W
09/20/2007 E0.75 INCH POLK MN PUBLIC

GROUND COVERED WITH HAIL.

1050 AM HAIL 9 SE EUCLID 47.88N 96.50W
09/20/2007 E0.88 INCH POLK MN PUBLIC

HAIL COVERED GROUND.

1052 AM HAIL 12 SW THIEF RIVER FALLS 47.99N 96.36W
09/20/2007 E1.00 INCH PENNINGTON MN PUBLIC

1052 AM HAIL 1 S WYLIE 47.95N 96.35W
09/20/2007 E1.00 INCH RED LAKE MN PUBLIC

1114 AM HAIL 11 E THIEF RIVER FALLS 48.11N 95.94W
09/20/2007 E0.88 INCH PENNINGTON MN LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

KRAMLICH

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KCHS [201640]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 201640
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1240 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1236 PM HIGH SURF KIAWAH ISLAND 32.61N 80.08W
09/20/2007 CHARLESTON SC LAW ENFORCEMENT

KIAWAH ISLAND BEACH PATROL REPORTS 3 TO 4 FOOT BREAKERS
WITH AN OCCASIONAL 5 FOOT BREAKER. A STRONG LONG SHORE
CURRENT FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.

&&

$$

33

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KAMA [201638]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 201638
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1137 AM CDT THU SEP 20 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0730 PM FLASH FLOOD 4 NNE PRINGLE 36.00N 101.43W
09/19/2007 HUTCHINSON TX PUBLIC

8 TO 12 INCHES OF FAST FLOWING WATER OVER COUNTY ROAD E

&&

$$

KRAMAR

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 201631
SWODY1
SPC AC 201628

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CDT THU SEP 20 2007

VALID 201630Z - 211200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
THE ERN DAKOTAS AND MN...

..MN/DAKOTAS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
A LARGE CLUSTER OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING OVER W CENTRAL
MN IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA ON THE NOSE OF A 40-50
KT LLJ...AND A SUBTLE MID LEVEL SPEED MAX. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
DEVELOP SLOWLY EWD ACROSS CENTRAL MN DURING THE DAY...WITH OTHER
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED FARTHER NW. THE INITIAL
ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ROOTED IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER...WHERE MUCAPE
OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KT WILL SUPPORT
SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES TO LOCALLY ENHANCE THE LARGE HAIL THREAT.

THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NEWD ACROSS ERN SD/SW MN AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES NEWD INTO THE ZONE OF STORM GENERATION
ACROSS W CENTRAL/SW MN. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG
THE WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WITH WAA ABOVE THE GROUND TO THE
NE OF THE FRONT. SW OF THIS BOUNDARY...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
ANY CLEAR FOCUS FOR WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE A
RELATIVELY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER MAY PROVIDE A CAP. A POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE REMNANT LEE TROUGH ACROSS NRN NEB/SRN
SD...WHERE STRONG SURFACE HEATING MAY SUFFICIENTLY WEAKEN THE CAP.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED
STORMS ALONG THE WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN MN.
IF SUCH DEVELOPMENT OCCURS...MLCAPE NEAR 2500 J/KG AND STRONG
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE
HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES.

MEANWHILE...A STRONG NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN BC WILL
AMPLIFY ESEWD TOWARD THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SE MT AREA EARLY TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THIS MID LEVEL
WAVE...AND THE SURFACE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP EWD INVOF THE
ND/SD BORDER THROUGH 21/12Z. STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS DEEPENING CYCLONE AND MID LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS
CENTRAL/ERN ND LATE TONIGHT...WHERE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST. ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS THIS AREA OVERNIGHT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING GUSTS.

.THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 09/20/2007

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KKEY [201624]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 201624
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1223 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0959 AM TSTM WND GST 8 ENE FORT JEFFERSON AT 24.69N 82.77W
09/20/2007 M39 MPH GMZ075 XX C-MAN STATION

WIND GUST OF 34 KNOTS AT PULASKI SHOAL C-MAN STATION

1018 AM TSTM WND GST 8 ENE FORT JEFFERSON AT 24.69N 82.77W
09/20/2007 M39 MPH GMZ075 XX C-MAN STATION

WIND GUST OF 34 KNOTS AT PULASKI SHOAL C-MAN STATION

&&

$$

COTTRILL

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KMPX [201620]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 201620
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1119 AM CDT THU SEP 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1042 AM TSTM WND DMG BENSON 45.32N 95.61W
09/20/2007 SWIFT MN LAW ENFORCEMENT

TWO TREES DOWN IN TOWN. ONE BLOCKING A STREET.

&&

$$

CARLYON

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KCRP [200412]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KCRP 200412
LSRCRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1112 PM CDT WED SEP 19 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 AM WATER SPOUT 2 E PORT ARANSAS 27.83N 97.05W
09/18/2007 GMZ250 TX BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

$$

JR

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