SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202016
MNZ000-202215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1986
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0316 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 202016Z - 202215Z
SRN MN IS BEING MONITORED FOR SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. TRENDS ARE BEING
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE TORNADO WATCH.
CLUSTER OF ELEVATED STORMS CONTINUES PROGRESSING EWD THROUGH E CNTRL
MN CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EMANATING
FROM THIS ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED SWD INTO SRN MN REINFORCING THE
BOUNDARY ALREADY IN PLACE OVER THIS REGION. NEW STORMS ARE
DEVELOPING OVER CHIPPEWA COUNTY APPARENTLY ALONG WRN END OF THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE LIFT AND THETA-E ADVECTION ARE MAXIMIZED
ALONG 60+ KT SWLY LOW LEVEL JET. THE WARM SECTOR CONTINUES TO
DESTABILIZE WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS
RISING INTO THE 60S CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG
OVER SWRN MN. STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARE IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO FEED OF UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR AND MAY
INTENSIFY AS THEY DEVELOP EWD. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS ALONG THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS OVER SRN MN ARE FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE
HAIL AND TORNADOES WITH ANY SURFACE BASED STORMS THAT MANAGE TO
DEVELOP. SPACIAL EXTENT OF TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED BY
SHARPLY COOLER AIR NORTH OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...SUGGESTING BEST
TORNADIC POTENTIAL WILL BE WITH STORMS THAT CAN MOVE EWD ALONG THE
BOUNDARY.
.DIAL.. 09/20/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...
44019391 44149556 44489638 45089578 45129451 45079311
44639278 44249316
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment