MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1987

ACUS11 KWNS 202048
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202048
FLZ000-GAZ000-202315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1987
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL...FAR SERN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 202048Z - 202315Z

A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH AN ISOLATED BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO
POSSIBLE.

MARGINAL INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS NRN FL/SRN GA WHERE SOME
HEATING HAS TAKEN PLACE. SLIGHTLY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR EXISTS
ALONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY FROM SRN GA INTO FAR NRN FL
WHERE SURFACE WINDS BACK FROM ELY TO NELY. CURRENT VWPS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATING 0-1 KM SRH ON THE ORDER OF 100-200 M2/S2.

LARGE SCALE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD SURFACE LOW AS WELL AS
SEA BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS STORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY HAVE AN INCREASED THREAT OF
ROTATION AND PERHAPS A WEAK TORNADO AS THEY MOVE NWD INTO A STRONGER
LOW LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. OVERALL THREAT SHOULD DECREASE CLOSER
TO SUNSET WHEN AIR MASS STABILIZES.

.JEWELL.. 09/20/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

29108107 28658108 28658138 28698151 28928186 29198261
29228275 29968379 30328379 30698346 30938309 31188282
31368229 31508160 31308129 30658140

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