KDLH [141712]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 141712
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1112 AM CST WED DEC 14 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1019 AM SNOW PALISADE 46.71N 93.49W
12/14/2011 E0.5 INCH AITKIN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

MSTEWART

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KILX [141701]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KILX 141701
LSRILX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1101 AM CST WED DEC 14 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 AM HEAVY RAIN ALTONA 41.12N 90.16W
12/14/2011 M1.74 INCH KNOX IL CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

$$

25

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 141701
SWODY2
SPC AC 141700

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1100 AM CST WED DEC 14 2011

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...TN VALLEY TO SOUTH TX...

LATEST GFS AND NAM AGREE THAT THE SWRN U.S. TROUGH WILL OPEN AND
EJECT INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS BY 16/00Z. THE DOWNSTREAM SPEED MAX
THAT INDUCED WEAK PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS DURING THE DAY1 PERIOD WILL
QUICKLY TRANSLATE INTO THE OH VALLEY WITH NEUTRAL TO WEAK HEIGHT
RISES EXPECTED ALONG TRAILING FRONTAL ZONE FROM WRN KY...ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX INTO SCNTRL TX THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...LLJ WILL REFOCUS
WELL DOWNSTREAM OF ANY MEANINGFUL INSTABILITY THAT WOULD OTHERWISE
DEVELOP DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING. ASIDE FROM A GRADUALLY
MOISTENING WARM SECTOR AND A WEAKLY CONVERGENT SFC FRONT...THERE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF LARGE SCALE SUPPORT TO
SUGGEST ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE ALONG THE WIND
SHIFT AS IT PROGRESSES SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS THE WRN TN VALLEY INTO
SCNTRL TX. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POOR LAPSE RATES WILL
LIMIT MUCAPE TO ROUGHLY 500 J/KG AND WITH WEAKENING LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE MUCH OF THE CONVECTION THAT EVOLVES WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE
TO ATTAIN ROBUST UPDRAFTS. FOR THIS REASON HAVE OPTED TO LOWER
SEVERE PROBS AS FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PROVE TOO WEAK TO
WARRANT MORE THAN MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS.

..DARROW.. 12/14/2011

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KAPX [141630]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 141630
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1130 AM EST WED DEC 14 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 AM FREEZING RAIN 1 NNW WELLSTON 44.23N 85.96W
12/14/2011 E0.00 INCH MANISTEE MI TRAINED SPOTTER

PRECIPITATION STARTED AS ONE HOUR OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.

&&

$$

JARNOTT

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KDVN [141624]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KDVN 141624
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1024 AM CST WED DEC 14 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0535 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 NE COLUSA 40.59N 91.14W
12/14/2011 M1.06 INCH HANCOCK IL TRAINED SPOTTER

TOTAL SO FAR...STILL RAINING

0609 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 NNW MUSCATINE 41.44N 91.08W
12/14/2011 M1.04 INCH MUSCATINE IA TRAINED SPOTTER

24HR AMOUNT

0703 AM HEAVY RAIN W BERTRAM 41.95N 91.54W
12/14/2011 M1.50 INCH LINN IA TRAINED SPOTTER

0752 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 ESE WASHINGTON 41.30N 91.68W
12/14/2011 M1.00 INCH WASHINGTON IA TRAINED SPOTTER

TOTAL SO FAR

0812 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 W BETTENDORF 41.56N 90.49W
12/14/2011 M1.05 INCH SCOTT IA TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL SO FAR

0816 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 WSW SHERRARD 41.31N 90.53W
12/14/2011 M1.44 INCH MERCER IL TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL SO FAR

0840 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 N NEW WINDSOR 41.23N 90.45W
12/14/2011 M1.63 INCH MERCER IL TRAINED SPOTTER

AS OF 7AM

0900 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 ESE KEOSAUQUA 40.72N 91.92W
12/14/2011 M2.60 INCH VAN BUREN IA TRAINED SPOTTER

TOTAL EVENT THROUGH 9 AM...STILL RAINING.

0918 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 WNW MORRISON 41.81N 89.98W
12/14/2011 M1.10 INCH WHITESIDE IL TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL SO FAR

0918 AM HEAVY RAIN W CANTRIL 40.64N 92.07W
12/14/2011 M2.00 INCH VAN BUREN IA TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL SO FAR

0920 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 SSW BURLINGTON 40.77N 91.14W
12/14/2011 M1.61 INCH DES MOINES IA TRAINED SPOTTER

0949 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 NW KEWANEE 41.26N 89.96W
12/14/2011 M1.51 INCH HENRY IL TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL SO FAR

&&

$$

TOMO

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KDLH [141620]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 141620
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1020 AM CST WED DEC 14 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1019 AM SNOW 5 NW TWO HARBORS 47.08N 91.75W
12/14/2011 M1.0 INCH LAKE MN TRAINED SPOTTER

ONLY A DUSTING IN THE CITY OF TWO HARBORS

&&

$$

MSTEWART

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 141616
SWODY1
SPC AC 141615

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1015 AM CST WED DEC 14 2011

VALID 141630Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NCNTRL TX NEWD TO OZARK PLATEAU...
12Z UPR AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE TROUGH OVER THE SWRN STATES WAS
MERGING WITH NRN STREAM SYSTEM OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. WITHIN THE
TROUGH...A LEAD IMPULSE WAS EJECTING ENE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH
A SECONDARY MID-LVL JET STREAK NOTED OVER NWRN SONORA MEXICO.

SWLY LLJ OF 45-55 KTS HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED FROM TX INTO THE MID-MS
VLY AHEAD OF THE LARGE-SCALE UPR TROUGH. THIS HAS BEEN SUPPORTING
CONSIDERABLE ELEVATED CONVECTION AND THE MOST NUMEROUS TSTMS WERE
CONFINED ALONG/N OF A WARM FRONT SITUATED FROM A 1008 MB LOW OVER SW
KS TO CNTRL MO.

SFC LOW WILL MOVE ENE INTO THE UPR GRTLKS REGION TONIGHT WITH A
MOISTENING/WARMING AIR MASS TO THE EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN WEAK
DESTABILIZATION...PARTICULARLY FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU SWWD INTO
PARTS OF TX. MOST LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT WILL TRANSLATE TOWARD THE
GRTLKS REGION WITH ONLY WEAK/MODEST HEIGHT FALLS FARTHER S. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH VEERING LLVL WINDS AND CLOUD-MITIGATING BOUNDARY
LAYER DESTABILIZATION SUGGESTS THAT ONLY A MINIMAL SVR THREAT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

HAVE MAINTAINED LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SVR HAIL/WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE
OZARK PLATEAU WHERE STRONGER SUPPORT WILL EXIST COINCIDENT WITH
STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND NEAR 7 DEG C PER KM H5-H7 LAPSE RATES
EXIST. FARTHER S ACROSS ERN OK/WRN AR AND NCNTRL TX...SLIGHTLY
STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL BE COMMON AND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
SECONDARY MID-LVL JET STREAK APPROACHES THE REGION /EFFECTIVELY
WEAKENING 700 MB CAP/...A REGENERATION OF STORMS ALONG THE PACIFIC
FRONT MAY OCCUR LATER TONIGHT. ONLY ISOLD DMGG WINDS/HAIL ARE
EXPECTED.

..RACY/LEITMAN.. 12/14/2011

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KGRB [141616]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRB 141616
LSRGRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1016 AM CST WED DEC 14 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0929 AM SNOW LAKE TOMAHAWK 45.81N 89.59W
12/14/2011 E0.5 INCH ONEIDA WI TRAINED SPOTTER

1015 AM SNOW RHINELANDER 45.63N 89.41W
12/14/2011 M0.5 INCH ONEIDA WI BROADCAST MEDIA

TV12

&&

$$

TH

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KFGZ [141608]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KFGZ 141608
LSRFGZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
908 AM MST WED DEC 14 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0907 AM SNOW ARIZONA SNOWBOWL 35.35N 111.70W
12/14/2011 M12.0 INCH COCONINO AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

TOTAL SNOWFALL RANGED FROM 7 TO 12 INCHES.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1100320

$$

MCS

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KILX [141603]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KILX 141603
LSRILX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1003 AM CST WED DEC 14 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 AM HEAVY RAIN GALESBURG 40.95N 90.38W
12/14/2011 M2.40 INCH KNOX IL TRAINED SPOTTER

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 NE DAHINDA 40.96N 90.09W
12/14/2011 M1.72 INCH KNOX IL CO-OP OBSERVER

0630 AM HEAVY RAIN KNOXVILLE 40.91N 90.29W
12/14/2011 M1.57 INCH KNOX IL MESONET

&&

$$

25

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KDLH [141558]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 141558
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
958 AM CST WED DEC 14 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM SNOW 4 NNE TWO HARBORS 47.08N 91.64W
12/14/2011 M1.0 INCH LAKE MN COCORAHS

0700 AM SNOW 3 WNW TWO HARBORS 47.05N 91.73W
12/14/2011 M2.0 INCH LAKE MN COCORAHS

0700 AM SNOW 4 NNE DULUTH 46.83N 92.09W
12/14/2011 M1.5 INCH ST. LOUIS MN COCORAHS

0700 AM SNOW 3 NE DULUTH 46.81N 92.07W
12/14/2011 M0.5 INCH ST. LOUIS MN COCORAHS

0800 AM SNOW 9 NE HERMANTOWN 46.90N 92.11W
12/14/2011 M2.0 INCH ST. LOUIS MN COCORAHS

&&

$$

GRANING

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KTOP [141557]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 141557
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
957 AM CST WED DEC 14 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0940 AM HAIL 3 WNW TOPEKA 39.06N 95.73W
12/14/2011 E0.50 INCH SHAWNEE KS PUBLIC

QUICK BURST OF PEA TO HALF INCH HAIL.

&&

$$

BARJENBRUCH

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KGJT [141556]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 141556
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
855 AM MST WED DEC 14 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0854 AM HEAVY SNOW 1 W NORWOOD 38.13N 108.31W
12/14/2011 M7.1 INCH SAN MIGUEL CO COCORAHS

24 HOUR SNOWFALL

&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1100654

$$

TB

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KGJT [141550]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 141550
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
850 AM MST WED DEC 14 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM SNOW 3 ESE MONTROSE 38.46N 107.82W
12/14/2011 M5.5 INCH MONTROSE CO COCORAHS

24 HOUR SNOWFALL

&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1100653

$$

TB

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KDVN [141550]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 141550
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
950 AM CST WED DEC 14 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0949 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 NW KEWANEE 41.26N 89.96W
12/14/2011 M1.51 INCH HENRY IL TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL SO FAR

&&

$$

TOMO

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KDLH [141541]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 141541
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
941 AM CST WED DEC 14 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0934 AM SNOW 4 S BRUNO 46.22N 92.67W
12/14/2011 E0.6 INCH PINE MN CO-OP OBSERVER

BAKM5

0934 AM SNOW NW DULUTH 46.78N 92.12W
12/14/2011 M2.5 INCH ST. LOUIS MN BROADCAST MEDIA

RECORDED AT PIKE LAKE. REPORTED BY KBJR

&&

$$

MSTEWART

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KGJT [141538]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 141538
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
838 AM MST WED DEC 14 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 AM HEAVY SNOW 6 S MESA 39.08N 108.13W
12/14/2011 M12.0 INCH MESA CO CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR SNOWFALL...WATER EQUIVALENT OF 1.00 INCHES

&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1100652

$$

TB

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KDVN [141525]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 141525
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
925 AM CST WED DEC 14 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0920 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 SSW BURLINGTON 40.77N 91.14W
12/14/2011 M1.61 INCH DES MOINES IA TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

ERVIN

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KGJT [141520]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 141520
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
820 AM MST WED DEC 14 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW 15 W MONTROSE 38.48N 108.15W
12/14/2011 M7.0 INCH MONTROSE CO TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR SNOWFALL

&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1100651

$$

TB

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KDVN [141519]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 141519
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
919 AM CST WED DEC 14 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0918 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 WNW MORRISON 41.81N 89.98W
12/14/2011 M1.10 INCH WHITESIDE IL TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL SO FAR

0918 AM HEAVY RAIN W CANTRIL 40.64N 92.07W
12/14/2011 M2.00 INCH VAN BUREN IA TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL SO FAR

&&

$$

TOMO

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KDVN [141513]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 141513
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
913 AM CST WED DEC 14 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 ESE KEOSAUQUA 40.72N 91.92W
12/14/2011 M2.60 INCH VAN BUREN IA TRAINED SPOTTER

TOTAL EVENT THROUGH 9 AM...STILL RAINING.

&&

$$

ERVIN

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KGJT [141506]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 141506
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
805 AM MST WED DEC 14 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW COAL BANK PASS 37.70N 107.78W
12/14/2011 M6.0 INCH SAN JUAN CO DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

24 HOUR SNOWFALL...2-DAY SNOWFALL TOTAL OF 15.5 INCHES

&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1100650

$$

TB

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KGJT [141505]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 141505
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
804 AM MST WED DEC 14 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW MOLAS PASS 37.73N 107.70W
12/14/2011 M6.0 INCH SAN JUAN CO DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

24 HOUR SNOWFALL...2-DAY SNOWFALL TOTAL OF 10.5 INCHES

&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1100649

$$

TB

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KGJT [141504]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 141504
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
802 AM MST WED DEC 14 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW RED MOUNTAIN PASS 37.90N 107.70W
12/14/2011 M5.5 INCH OURAY CO DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

24 HOUR SNOWFALL...2-DAY TOTAL SNOWFALL 17.0 INCHES

&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1100648

$$

TB

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KGJT [141501]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 141501
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
801 AM MST WED DEC 14 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW MONUMENT (HIGHWAY 550) 37.97N 107.66W
12/14/2011 M4.0 INCH OURAY CO DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

24 HOUR SNOWFALL...2-DAY SNOWFALL TOTAL 10.0 INCHES

&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1100647

$$

TB

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KGJT [141457]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 141457
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
756 AM MST WED DEC 14 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0725 AM SNOW 4 NNE CEDAREDGE 38.95N 107.90W
12/14/2011 M5.0 INCH DELTA CO TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR SNOWFALL

&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1100646

$$

TB

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KDVN [141441]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 141441
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
841 AM CST WED DEC 14 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0840 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 N NEW WINDSOR 41.23N 90.45W
12/14/2011 M1.63 INCH MERCER IL TRAINED SPOTTER

AS OF 7AM

&&

$$

TOMO

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KDLH [141433]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KDLH 141433
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
832 AM CST WED DEC 14 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0537 AM SNOW BUTTERNUT 46.01N 90.50W
12/14/2011 M0.5 INCH ASHLAND WI CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM SNOW 4 W CLAM LAKE 45.79N 92.41W
12/14/2011 M0.5 INCH BURNETT WI CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM SNOW 2 SE ESKO 46.69N 92.33W
12/14/2011 M1.7 INCH CARLTON MN NWS EMPLOYEE

0720 AM SNOW BRIMSON 47.28N 91.87W
12/14/2011 E0.5 INCH ST. LOUIS MN CO-OP OBSERVER

0723 AM SNOW 3 W PHILLIPS 45.70N 90.46W
12/14/2011 M0.8 INCH PRICE WI TRAINED SPOTTER

0725 AM SNOW GILE 46.43N 90.23W
12/14/2011 M0.5 INCH IRON WI TRAINED SPOTTER

0728 AM SNOW 3 S TURTLE FLAMBEAU FLO 46.03N 90.18W
12/14/2011 E0.5 INCH IRON WI BROADCAST MEDIA

SPRINGSTEAD WI REPORTED BY KBJR

0728 AM SNOW DULUTH 46.78N 92.12W
12/14/2011 M1.3 INCH ST. LOUIS MN NWS EMPLOYEE

DULUTH HEIGHTS

0755 AM SNOW 4 S SAWYER 46.61N 92.63W
12/14/2011 M1.4 INCH CARLTON MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0800 AM SNOW UPSON 46.37N 90.41W
12/14/2011 M0.5 INCH IRON WI CO-OP OBSERVER

0800 AM SLEET CROSSLAKE 46.68N 94.09W
12/14/2011 M0.05 INCH CROW WING MN CO-OP OBSERVER

MIX OF SLEET/RAIN/SNOW ON GROUND

0800 AM SNOW 3 NE FLOODWOOD 46.96N 92.87W
12/14/2011 M0.5 INCH ST. LOUIS MN CO-OP OBSERVER

0800 AM SNOW 3 S ASHLAND 46.54N 90.87W
12/14/2011 M0.4 INCH ASHLAND WI CO-OP OBSERVER

0800 AM SNOW SARONA 45.71N 91.81W
12/14/2011 M1.0 INCH WASHBURN WI CO-OP OBSERVER

MIX OF SNOW AND DRIZZLE

0800 AM SNOW 7 NE BRUNO 46.35N 92.56W
12/14/2011 M0.7 INCH PINE MN CO-OP OBSERVER

0826 AM SNOW 12 N ISLE 46.32N 93.46W
12/14/2011 M0.3 INCH AITKIN MN CO-OP OBSERVER

0831 AM SNOW 5 NW DULUTH 46.83N 92.19W
12/14/2011 M2.5 INCH ST. LOUIS MN OFFICIAL NWS OBS

&&

$$

GRANING

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KDLH [141432]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 141432
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
831 AM CST WED DEC 14 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM SNOW 4 W CLAM LAKE 45.79N 92.41W
12/14/2011 M0.5 INCH BURNETT WI CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM SNOW 2 SE ESKO 46.69N 92.33W
12/14/2011 M1.7 INCH CARLTON MN NWS EMPLOYEE

0800 AM SNOW SARONA 45.71N 91.81W
12/14/2011 M1.0 INCH WASHBURN WI CO-OP OBSERVER

MIX OF SNOW AND DRIZZLE

0800 AM SNOW 3 S ASHLAND 46.54N 90.87W
12/14/2011 M0.4 INCH ASHLAND WI CO-OP OBSERVER

0800 AM SNOW 3 NE FLOODWOOD 46.96N 92.87W
12/14/2011 M0.5 INCH ST. LOUIS MN CO-OP OBSERVER

0800 AM SLEET CROSSLAKE 46.68N 94.09W
12/14/2011 M0.05 INCH CROW WING MN CO-OP OBSERVER

MIX OF SLEET/RAIN/SNOW ON GROUND

0800 AM SNOW UPSON 46.37N 90.41W
12/14/2011 M0.5 INCH IRON WI CO-OP OBSERVER

0800 AM SNOW 7 NE BRUNO 46.35N 92.56W
12/14/2011 M0.7 INCH PINE MN CO-OP OBSERVER

0826 AM SNOW 12 N ISLE 46.32N 93.46W
12/14/2011 M0.3 INCH AITKIN MN CO-OP OBSERVER

0831 AM SNOW 5 NW DULUTH 46.83N 92.19W
12/14/2011 M2.5 INCH ST. LOUIS MN OFFICIAL NWS OBS

&&

$$

GRANING

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KGJT [141424]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 141424
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
724 AM MST WED DEC 14 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0614 AM SNOW 5 WNW HOTCHKISS 38.83N 107.80W
12/14/2011 M4.5 INCH DELTA CO CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR SNOWFALL

&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1100645

$$

TB

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KDVN [141417]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 141417
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
817 AM CST WED DEC 14 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0816 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 WSW SHERRARD 41.31N 90.53W
12/14/2011 M1.44 INCH MERCER IL TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL SO FAR

&&

$$

TOMO

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KDVN [141413]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 141413
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
813 AM CST WED DEC 14 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0812 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 W BETTENDORF 41.56N 90.49W
12/14/2011 M1.05 INCH SCOTT IA TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL SO FAR

&&

$$

TOMO

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KPUB [141413]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 141413
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
713 AM MST WED DEC 14 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0628 AM SNOW 1 SSE WOLF CREEK PASS 37.47N 106.79W
12/14/2011 M8.0 INCH MINERAL CO PUBLIC

8 INCHES IN THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH A STORM TOTAL OF 14
INCHES REPORTED BY WOLF CREEK SKI

&&

$$

MW

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KDLH [141356]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 141356
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
756 AM CST WED DEC 14 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0755 AM SNOW 4 S SAWYER 46.61N 92.63W
12/14/2011 M1.4 INCH CARLTON MN TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

MSTEWART

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KDVN [141352]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 141352
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
752 AM CST WED DEC 14 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0752 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 ESE WASHINGTON 41.30N 91.68W
12/14/2011 M1.00 INCH WASHINGTON IA TRAINED SPOTTER

TOTAL SO FAR

&&

$$

TOMO

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KDLH [141351]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 141351
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
750 AM CST WED DEC 14 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0728 AM SNOW 3 S TURTLE FLAMBEAU FLO 46.03N 90.18W
12/14/2011 E0.5 INCH IRON WI BROADCAST MEDIA

SPRINGSTEAD WI REPORTED BY KBJR

&&

$$

MSTEWART

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KDLH [141340]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 141340
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
739 AM CST WED DEC 14 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0728 AM SNOW DULUTH 46.78N 92.12W
12/14/2011 M1.3 INCH ST. LOUIS MN NWS EMPLOYEE

DULUTH HEIGHTS

&&

$$

MSTEWART

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KDLH [141325]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 141325
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
725 AM CST WED DEC 14 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0720 AM SNOW BRIMSON 47.28N 91.87W
12/14/2011 E0.5 INCH ST. LOUIS MN CO-OP OBSERVER

0723 AM SNOW 3 W PHILLIPS 45.70N 90.46W
12/14/2011 M0.8 INCH PRICE WI TRAINED SPOTTER

0725 AM SNOW GILE 46.43N 90.23W
12/14/2011 M0.5 INCH IRON WI TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

MSTEWART

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KDLH [141318]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KDLH 141318
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
718 AM CST WED DEC 14 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0537 AM SNOW BUTTERNUT 46.01N 90.50W
12/14/2011 M0.5 INCH ASHLAND WI CO-OP OBSERVER

0710 AM SNOW 5 NNW DULUTH 46.85N 92.16W
12/14/2011 M1.4 INCH ST. LOUIS MN OFFICIAL NWS OBS

&&
CORRECTED TIME OF NWS DLH OBSERVATION
$$

MSTEWART

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KDLH [141314]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KDLH 141314
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
714 AM CST WED DEC 14 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0537 AM SNOW BUTTERNUT 46.01N 90.50W
12/14/2011 M0.5 INCH ASHLAND WI CO-OP OBSERVER

0537 AM SNOW 5 NNW DULUTH 46.85N 92.16W
12/14/2011 M1.4 INCH ST. LOUIS MN OFFICIAL NWS OBS

&&

$$

EOM

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KMPX [141308]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 141308
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
708 AM CST WED DEC 14 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM SLEET 7 S HILLMAN 45.91N 93.89W
12/14/2011 M0.60 INCH MORRISON MN TRAINED SPOTTER

FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET SLUSHY COVERED ROADS.

&&

$$

CARLYON

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KDVN [141303]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 141303
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
703 AM CST WED DEC 14 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0703 AM HEAVY RAIN W BERTRAM 41.95N 91.54W
12/14/2011 M1.50 INCH LINN IA TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

BILLN

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 141224
SWODY1
SPC AC 141223

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0623 AM CST WED DEC 14 2011

VALID 141300Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

A LARGE AND DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS IN PLACE THIS MORNING OVER THE
WESTERN STATES...WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTHEAST CO/EASTERN NM. THIS IMPULSE WILL TRACK
QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THU MORNING. VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY PRESENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...RESULTING IN A LARGE AREA OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND
LIFT FROM PARTS OF TX/OK INTO MO/IA. THIS LOW LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...HELPING TO DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD
AND TO DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND MID MS
VALLEY. THE RESULT IS A RATHER LARGE AREA WITH SOME THREAT OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

...OK/KS/MO/AR...
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT THE SURFACE LOW OVER
WESTERN KS WILL TRACK INTO IA BY THIS EVENING. AS THIS
OCCURS...STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW ACROSS MUCH OF OK/KS/MO. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS SLOWLY RETURNING TO THIS REGION WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER
50S CURRENTLY AS FAR NORTH AS THE KS/OK BORDER. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
WILL HAMPER INSOLATION AND LIMIT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/
DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS REGION SHOW
VERY FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...HAVE EXPANDED LOW
SEVERE PROBABILITIES FARTHER NORTH INTO KS/MO WHERE A STRONG/SEVERE
STORM MIGHT BE POSSIBLE DESPITE THE VERY WEAK CAPE VALUES EXPECTED.

...TX/OK...
THE LOW LEVEL JET AND PRIMARY LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL SHIFT AWAY
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WARM NOSE AROUND 700MB THAT IS LIKELY
TO LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH IN THE STORMS THAT DO OCCUR ACROSS THIS
REGION. FOR THESE REASONS...HAVE LOWERED SEVERE PROBABILITIES ACROSS
THIS AREA. LATE TONIGHT...A REJUVENATION OF CONVECTION MAY OCCUR
ALONG THE SAGGING COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TX.
HOWEVER...WEAK WIND FIELDS BY THAT TIME SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE RISK
WITH THESE STORMS AS WELL.

..HART/GARNER.. 12/14/2011

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KDVN [141210]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 141210
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
610 AM CST WED DEC 14 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0535 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 NE COLUSA 40.59N 91.14W
12/14/2011 M1.06 INCH HANCOCK IL TRAINED SPOTTER

TOTAL SO FAR...STILL RAINING

0609 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 NNW MUSCATINE 41.44N 91.08W
12/14/2011 M1.04 INCH MUSCATINE IA TRAINED SPOTTER

24HR AMOUNT

&&

$$

TOMO

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KMPX [141149]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 141149
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
548 AM CST WED DEC 14 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0546 AM SLEET 6 N RICE LAKE 45.58N 91.74W
12/14/2011 M0.50 INCH BARRON WI TRAINED SPOTTER

ACCUMULATING ON THE ROADS.

&&

$$

CARLYON

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KDLH [141139]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 141139
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
538 AM CST WED DEC 14 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0537 AM SNOW BUTTERNUT 46.01N 90.50W
12/14/2011 M0.5 INCH ASHLAND WI CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

$$

EOM

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KBIS [141121]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 141121
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
521 AM CST WED DEC 14 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0520 AM FREEZING RAIN DRAKE 47.92N 100.37W
12/14/2011 U0.00 INCH MCHENRY ND PUBLIC

US HIGHWAY 52 AT DRAKE REPORTED TO BE VERY ICY DUE TO
FREEZING DRIZZLE. REPORT RELAYED BY MEDIA.

&&

$$

PAYD

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KBIS [141108]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 141108
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
508 AM CST WED DEC 14 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0506 AM FREEZING RAIN HARVEY 47.77N 99.94W
12/14/2011 U0.00 INCH WELLS ND BROADCAST MEDIA

US HIGHWAY 52 NEAR HARVEY REPORTED TO BE EXTREMLY ICY.

&&

$$

PAYD

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KBIS [140937]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 140937
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
337 AM CST WED DEC 14 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 AM FREEZING RAIN JAMESTOWN 46.91N 98.71W
12/14/2011 U0.00 INCH STUTSMAN ND LAW ENFORCEMENT

EXTREMLY ICY CONDITIONS NEAR JAMESTOWN DUE TO FREEZING
DRIZZLE. VERY LOW VISIBILITIES IN FOG ALSO REPORTED.

&&

$$

PAYD

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 140932
SWOD48
SPC AC 140931

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0331 AM CST WED DEC 14 2011

VALID 171200Z - 221200Z

...POTENTIAL FOR A REGIONAL SVR THREAT APPEARS LOW...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFS AND ECMWF...AND THEIR
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES...CONTINUE TO DISPLAY A HIGH LEVEL OF
VARIABILITY CONCERNING DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN THE PREVAILING SPLIT
UPPER FLOW REGIME LATE THIS COMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE TIMING OF THE NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION OF THE NEXT SOUTHERN
STREAM CLOSED LOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST REMAINS UNCERTAIN...AS DOES
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TO THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WHICH PROBABLY WILL BE NEEDED TO SUPPORT
SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR A SUBSTANTIVE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
IT IS AT LEAST FAIR TO SAY THAT THE PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO
ASCERTAIN THE RISK FOR A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT...AND THE
GENERAL TRENDS STILL SEEM TO SUGGEST THAT POTENTIAL ITSELF IS LOW TO
NEGLIGIBLE. HOWEVER...THE COLD INTRUSION INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE
THIS WEEK APPEARS LIKELY TO BE WEAKER THAN THE PRIOR ONE OR
TWO...AND MAY BE ABLE TO MODIFY MORE QUICKLY.

..KERR.. 12/14/2011

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