SWODY2
SPC AC 141700
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1100 AM CST WED DEC 14 2011
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...TN VALLEY TO SOUTH TX...
LATEST GFS AND NAM AGREE THAT THE SWRN U.S. TROUGH WILL OPEN AND
EJECT INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS BY 16/00Z. THE DOWNSTREAM SPEED MAX
THAT INDUCED WEAK PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS DURING THE DAY1 PERIOD WILL
QUICKLY TRANSLATE INTO THE OH VALLEY WITH NEUTRAL TO WEAK HEIGHT
RISES EXPECTED ALONG TRAILING FRONTAL ZONE FROM WRN KY...ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX INTO SCNTRL TX THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...LLJ WILL REFOCUS
WELL DOWNSTREAM OF ANY MEANINGFUL INSTABILITY THAT WOULD OTHERWISE
DEVELOP DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING. ASIDE FROM A GRADUALLY
MOISTENING WARM SECTOR AND A WEAKLY CONVERGENT SFC FRONT...THERE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF LARGE SCALE SUPPORT TO
SUGGEST ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE ALONG THE WIND
SHIFT AS IT PROGRESSES SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS THE WRN TN VALLEY INTO
SCNTRL TX. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POOR LAPSE RATES WILL
LIMIT MUCAPE TO ROUGHLY 500 J/KG AND WITH WEAKENING LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE MUCH OF THE CONVECTION THAT EVOLVES WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE
TO ATTAIN ROBUST UPDRAFTS. FOR THIS REASON HAVE OPTED TO LOWER
SEVERE PROBS AS FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PROVE TOO WEAK TO
WARRANT MORE THAN MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
..DARROW.. 12/14/2011
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