MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2278

ACUS11 KWNS 230359
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230358
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-230500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2278
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1058 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NE NEB INTO ERN SD...PARTS OF SE ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 906...

VALID 230358Z - 230500Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 906
CONTINUES.

A LOCAL EXTENSION OF WW 906 IN AREA/TIME MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS
OF NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

LATEST RUC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT LOW-LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IS WEAKENING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS
...AND ASSOCIATED LINE OF STORMS APPEARS TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF
WEAKENING. STRONGEST ACTIVITY LINGERS NORTH/EAST OF A WEAK SURFACE
LOW/FRONTAL WAVE NEAR PIERRE...WHERE BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS
MAINTAINING STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG CONVECTIVE
ENHANCED FRONTAL ZONE. THIS FORCING...BENEATH DIFLUENT AND
DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW...COULD SUPPORT THE NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION
OF VIGOROUS CONVECTION ACROSS AND NORTHEAST OF THE ABERDEEN AREA
BETWEEN NOW AND 05-06Z...BEFORE UPDRAFTS WEAKEN IN A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT. UNTIL STORMS DIMINISH...DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF HIGHER
MOMENTUM AIR NEAR A 50-60 KT SOUTHERLY 850 JET CORE CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A RISK FOR STRONG DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS.

..KERR.. 09/23/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...

45509979 46049879 46259720 45709676 44809758 43509965
44849964

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KABR [230349]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KABR 230349
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1049 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1048 PM TSTM WND GST GETTYSBURG 45.01N 99.95W
09/22/2008 E60 MPH POTTER SD TRAINED SPOTTER

WIND GUSTS ESTIMATED AROUND 60 MPH

&&

$$

TMT

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KABR [230348]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KABR 230348
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1048 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1038 PM TSTM WND GST AGAR 44.84N 100.07W
09/22/2008 E60 MPH SULLY SD TRAINED SPOTTER

WIND GUSTS ESTIMATED TO BE IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH

&&

$$

TMT

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2277

ACUS11 KWNS 230321
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230321
MNZ000-NDZ000-SDZ000-230415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2277
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1021 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ND THRU NWRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 907...

VALID 230321Z - 230415Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 907
CONTINUES.

SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF
ND EXTENDING NEWD INTO NWRN MN. A TRANSITION TO A MORE LINEAR
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE WITH ISOLD DMGG
WINDS BECOMING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER PARTS OF
WALSH/PEMBINA CO. ND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NE AT 4O KTS
REACHING THE I-29 CORRIDOR BY 4Z. RADAR TRENDS OVER THE PAST HR
INDICATE THE SEVERE THREAT HAS WANED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. FURTHER S
ACROSS NRN SD INTO SRN ND...SUB-SEVERE LINEAR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
THAT HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE PAST 1-2 HRS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE
NE AS LOW LEVEL WAA AND FORCING ALOFT AID IN SUSTAINING THIS
ACTIVITY. THE MOST ROBUST TSTMS AT 0315Z ARE ORIENTED N-S IN A
CONVECTIVE LINE OVER CENTRAL SD AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO TRACK
NEWD AND MOVE INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS. WITH 50KT LLJ NOW EVIDENT
IN ABR VWP...THESE TSTMS WILL MOVE INTO THE SRN PART OF WW 907
AROUND 5Z AND POSE A CONTINUED RISK FOR PRIMARILY ISOLD DMGG WINDS.

..SMITH.. 09/23/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

45949800 45920198 46980208 46930082 48979945 48979526
48539531 48509557 47449556 47489683 47259685 47239769
46649767 46599802

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KUNR [230244]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KUNR 230244
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
844 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0705 PM HAIL 8 SSE POTATO CREEK 43.42N 101.95W
09/22/2008 E2.00 INCH JACKSON SD TRAINED SPOTTER

LASTED FROM 705 PM TO 715 PM.

0740 PM HAIL 8 N KADOKA 43.94N 101.48W
09/22/2008 E2.50 INCH JACKSON SD TRAINED SPOTTER

0747 PM HAIL 11 ENE WANBLEE 43.64N 101.45W
09/22/2008 E1.75 INCH JACKSON SD TRAINED SPOTTER

0755 PM HAIL 8 E PHILIP 44.05N 101.50W
09/22/2008 E1.50 INCH HAAKON SD PUBLIC

&&

$$

LCZEPYHA

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KUNR [230210]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 230210
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
810 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0747 PM HAIL 11 ENE WANBLEE 43.64N 101.45W
09/22/2008 E1.75 INCH JACKSON SD TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

LCZEPYHA

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KUNR [230205]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 230205
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
805 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0755 PM HAIL 8 E PHILIP 44.05N 101.50W
09/22/2008 E1.50 INCH HAAKON SD PUBLIC

&&

$$

LCZEPYHA

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KUNR [230147]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 230147
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
747 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0740 PM HAIL 8 N KADOKA 43.94N 101.48W
09/22/2008 E2.50 INCH JACKSON SD TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

LCZEPYHA

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2276

ACUS11 KWNS 230128
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230127
SDZ000-NEZ000-230300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2276
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0827 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF W CNTRL NEB THRU CNTRL SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 906...

VALID 230127Z - 230300Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 906
CONTINUES.

AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY NOT BE NEEDED...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
FOR THIS POSSIBILITY...PARTICULARLY NORTH NORTHWEST OF BROKEN BOW
NEB INTO THE ABERDEEN SD VICINITY.

POTENTIAL FOR PRE-FRONTAL STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE
DIMINISHING. PRIMARY ACTIVITY NOW APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING IN
RESPONSE TO A ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WHICH HAS
ADVANCED INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...SOUTH OF A WEAK
FRONTAL WAVE TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF PIERRE. RUC GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THIS FORCING WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER 03Z...BUT THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL IN LINGERING CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE WW AREA MAY BE A BIT SLOWER TO DIMINISH.

INTENSIFICATION OF THE PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL JET IS UNDERWAY...AND
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS COULD STRENGTHEN IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS...AS
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING CONTINUES THIS EVENING. AS THE DEVELOPING
LINE OF STORMS APPROACHES THE JET CORE...EVAPORATIVE COOLING
ASSOCIATED WITH DRY-SUB CLOUD AIR WITHIN THE REMNANT ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER COULD AID DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR TO THE
SURFACE. SO...THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY INCREASE DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND POSSIBLY PERSIST THROUGH LATE
EVENING.

..KERR.. 09/23/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...

41510255 42720217 43880181 45360063 45769938 45429823
42779906 41250002 40960176

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KBIS [230127]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 230127
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
827 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0745 PM HAIL 10 SW CARRINGTON 47.35N 99.27W
09/22/2008 E0.75 INCH WELLS ND TRAINED SPOTTER

ALSO VERY HEAVY RAIN. LATE REPORT.

&&

$$

NHEINERT

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KUNR [230124]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 230124
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
724 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0705 PM HAIL 8 SSE POTATO CREEK 43.42N 101.95W
09/22/2008 E2.00 INCH JACKSON SD TRAINED SPOTTER

LASTED FROM 705 PM TO 715 PM.

&&

$$

LCZEPYHA

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KLBF [230117]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 230117
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
817 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0759 PM HAIL 6 N GORDON 42.89N 102.20W
09/22/2008 E0.88 INCH SHERIDAN NE PUBLIC

&&

$$

JSWEET

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 230056
SWODY1
SPC AC 230054

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2008

VALID 230100Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NRN PLAINS AND
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

...NRN PLAINS/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
CNTRL ROCKIES WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS.
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING QUICKLY NEWD WITH LIFT AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG A
COLD FRONT ORIENTED FROM WRN ND EXTENDING SWD ACROSS WRN SD INTO WRN
NEB. OTHER STORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IN WCNTRL
NEB...CNTRL SD AND ECNTRL ND. MODEL FORECASTS GREATLY INCREASE
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE EARLY THIS EVENING...ORGANIZING AN MCS AS THE
FRONT MOVES EWD AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS.

THE RUC CURRENTLY ANALYZES A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS MOST OF NEB AND SD WHERE MLCAPE VALUES
RANGE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. THIS THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT COUPLED
WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH A 50 TO 60 KT
MID-LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE LATEST 00Z SOUNDING FROM NORTH PLATTE NEB HAS AN
850-500 MB LAPSE RATE AROUND 8.5 C/KM. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
PLUME OF VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXTENDING NWD ACROSS WRN
NEB INTO SW SD WHERE THE LARGE HAIL THREAT SHOULD BE THE GREATEST
THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...THE HAIL THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY
INCREASE EWD AND NWD AS A CONVECTIVE LINE ORGANIZES OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. ACCORDING TO THE RUC...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO
STEEP AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THIS
EVENING WHICH ALSO SHOULD AID A POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE. HAIL AND
WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS ERN ND WHERE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT IS SLIGHTLY GREATER. THE SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD DECREASE LATE THIS EVENING AS THE STORMS BECOME ELEVATED IN
NATURE.

..BROYLES.. 09/23/2008

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 907

WWUS20 KWNS 230034
SEL7
SPC WW 230034
MNZ000-NDZ000-230700-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 907
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
735 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 735 PM UNTIL
200 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF HALLOCK MINNESOTA TO 20 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
JAMESTOWN NORTH DAKOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH
SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 906...

DISCUSSION...STORMS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER CENTRAL ND IN AREA OF
ASCENT VICINITY NE/SW BOUNDARY. WITH MLCAPES TO 1500 J/KG AND
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE SHEAR DURING EVENING AS LLJ
INTENSIFIES...SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH PRIMARILY
LARGE HAIL AND BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24035.

...HALES

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KCYS [230011]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 230011
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
611 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 PM HAIL 15 S CHADRON 42.61N 103.00W
09/22/2008 M1.00 INCH DAWES NE TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

SRUBIN

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KTFX [230003]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 230003
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
603 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 S SUNBURST 48.82N 111.91W
09/21/2008 M4.30 INCH TOOLE MT PUBLIC

THIS RAIN FELL OVER A TWO HOUR PERIOD FROM 2 PM TO 4 PM
MDT. ANOTHER TIPPING BUCKET GAUGE ABOUT ONE MILE AWAY HAD
2.71 INCHES FROM THE STORM. TWO OTHER REPORTS OF 2.70
INCHES CAME FROM THIS SAME AREA.

&&
THE STORM THAT DROPPED THIS RAIN WAS VERY SMALL...BUT DROPPED VERY
HEAVY RAIN IN THIS SMALL AREA. THE STORM DIMINISHED RAPIDLY AS IT
CROSSED I-15.
$$

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 906

WWUS20 KWNS 222257
SEL6
SPC WW 222257
NEZ000-SDZ000-230500-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 906
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
600 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND PARTS OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT FROM 600 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES EAST OF
SIDNEY NEBRASKA TO 30 MILES NORTH OF MOBRIDGE SOUTH DAKOTA. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY IN NUMBER AND
INTENSITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF VIGOROUS COLD FRONT NOW MOVING EWD INTO
WRN NE/SWRN SD. WITH MLCAPES TO 1500 J/KG AND 40-50 KT OF SHEAR IN
ADVANCE OF S/WV TROUGH MOVING THRU WY...SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE.
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS WILL
EVOLVE INTO A LINE LATER THIS EVENING AS THEY MOVE FURTHER E ACROSS
THE WATCH.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24035.

...HALES

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2275

ACUS11 KWNS 222221
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222221
SDZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-222345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2275
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0521 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN NEB INTO W CNTRL SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 222221Z - 222345Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF A WW.

BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER ADVECTING NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...THE
BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BECOME FAIRLY DEEPLY MIXED AND POTENTIALLY
UNSTABLE WITH CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO WEST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS ENVIRONMENT
HAS EVOLVED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE WHICH HAS
TEMPORARILY STALLED NEAR THE WYOMING/NEBRASKA BORDER INTO AREAS
WEST/NORTHWEST OF PHILIP AND MOBRIDGE SOUTH DAKOTA.
BUT...OBSERVATIONAL AND MODEL FORECAST DATA SUGGEST THAT THIS FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO SURGE EASTWARD OUT OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING BY
23/00-03Z...IN THE WAKE OF A DEVELOPING WEAK SURFACE WAVE ACROSS
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS IS EXPECTED IN
RESPONSE TO FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE
NOW ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN.

WHILE IT APPEARS THE BULK OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAY BE POST-FRONTAL...A WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY APPEARS TO EXIST FOR PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER BASED
STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE MID-EVENING HOURS. IF THIS
OCCURS...DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH 30-50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION TO THE RISK FOR
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL BOUNDARY
LAYER STABILIZATION OCCURS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONSET OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER THIS EVENING.

..KERR.. 09/22/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...

41770388 42560405 43260379 44250245 45500139 45660070
45490010 44999970 44109985 43250074 42840120 42020196
41490304

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2274

ACUS11 KWNS 222211
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222210
NDZ000-SDZ000-222315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2274
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0510 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN ND...FAR CNTRL SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 222210Z - 222315Z

A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP BEFORE 00Z. LARGE HAIL
WILL BE LIKELY...WITH A LESSER CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH ACROSS WRN ND..EXTENDING SWD
INTO WRN SD WHERE A LOW IS DEVELOPING. EARLIER ELEVATED CONVECTION
ACROSS NW SD/CNTRL ND HAS CREATED A RELATIVELY COOL AIR MASS AT THE
SURFACE...BUT A WEAK WARM FRONT WAS FORMING ACROSS NWRN SD AS WELL
AS CNTRL ND.

CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS WARM FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR NEW STORM
DEVELOPMENT...FROM EXTREME N CNTRL SD INTO SRN ND. THE 18Z BIS
SOUNDING SHOWED RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...WITH AMPLE WIND FIELDS FOR SUPERCELLS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES...SO WILL LIFT AND STORM COVERAGE.

THE COOL AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH LONG HODOGRAPHS WILL EASILY SUPPORT
LARGE HAIL. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE MARGINAL ACROSS CNTRL ND AND
NWRN SD...BUT INCREASE IN SPEED FARTHER E WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET
AXIS WILL SET UP. THUS...A TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST WITH SUPERCELLS
THAT TRAVEL EWD INTO ERN ND/NERN SD WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS
STRONGEST. WARMER SURFACE AIR WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FURTHER SUGGESTS THE LIKELIHOOD THAT
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SURFACE BASED.

..JEWELL.. 09/22/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

45360073 45410106 46280122 47960049 48659951 48739842
48479751 47819717 46619741 45859829 45539920

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KFGF [222204]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 222204
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
504 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 3 S MAHNOMEN 47.27N 95.97W
09/13/2008 MAHNOMEN MN LAW ENFORCEMENT

A BRIEF COLD CORE FUNNEL WAS VIEWED SOUTH OF MAHNOMEN. TO
TOUCHDOWN WAS OBSERVED.

&&

$$

GGUST

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KFGF [222204]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 222204
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
503 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0337 PM HAIL HARWOOD 46.98N 96.88W
09/08/2008 E0.75 INCH CASS ND CO-OP OBSERVER

0531 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 3 N ELIZABETH 46.42N 96.13W
09/08/2008 OTTER TAIL MN LAW ENFORCEMENT

TWO COLD CORE FUNNELS VIEWED NORTH OF ELIZABETH. FUNNELS
STAYED HIGH...NEAR THE CLOUD BASE. NP TOUCHDONS WERE
OBSERVED.

&&

$$

GGUST

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KFGF [222203]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 222203
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
503 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 AM FLASH FLOOD BRECKENRIDGE 46.26N 96.59W
09/02/2008 WILKIN MN LAW ENFORCEMENT

RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IN 4 HOURS RESULTED IN
LOCALIZED FLOODING OF FARM FIELDS AND FARM ACCESS ROADS.
AREAS OF STREET FLOODING ALSO OCCURRED.

0200 AM FLASH FLOOD WAHPETON 46.27N 96.61W
09/02/2008 RICHLAND ND LAW ENFORCEMENT

RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IN 4 HOURS RESULTED IN
LOCALIZED FLOODING OF FARM FIELDS AND FARM ACCESS ROADS.
AREAS OF STREET FLOODING ALSO OCCURRED.

&&

$$

GGUST

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 221954
SWODY1
SPC AC 221951

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2008

VALID 222000Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLNS...

...NRN PLNS...
NEXT IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WAS BEGINNING TO TURN BASE AND
HEAD ENE TOWARD THE NRN HIGH PLNS AT MID-AFTN AND IS PROGD TO
TRANSLATE ACROSS THE NRN PLNS TONIGHT. TSTMS DVLPG OVER NW CO/SW WY
APPEARS TO MARK THE STRONGER LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCD WITH THIS
FEATURE. LEADING EDGE OF THIS ASCENT IS EXTRAPOLATED INTO ERN WY
AFT 21Z AND THE ADJACENT WRN DAKS/PNHDL NEB NEAR 00Z.

THIS MORNING SOUNDINGS EXHIBITED A STRONG CAP AND THE 18Z BIS
SOUNDING IS NO DIFFERENT. ASIDE FROM ELEVATED CONVECTION LIFTING
NWD THROUGH ND...STRONG ASCENT/MOISTENING IN THE H85-H7 LAYER WILL
BE NEEDED TO ERODE THE CINH IN PLACE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
OCCUR THROUGH THIS EVENING. FIRST TSTMS WILL EVOLVE AS HIGH-BASED
ACTIVITY OVER NRN CO/WY THAT MAY GIVE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. MORE
SUBSTANTIAL STORMS WILL FORM PRIOR TO SUNSET ALONG A N-S ORIENTED
BOUNDARY FROM WRN NEB PNHDL NWD INTO CNTRL ND.

STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT WILL EXIST W OF THE PRIMARY INSTABILITY
AXIS...BUT 35-40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED
INITIATION ZONE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SVR STORMS. STEEP H7-H5 LAPSE
RATES WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL PRIMARILY...BUT AS ACTIVITY GROWS MORE
LINEARLY WITH TIME...DMGG WINDS WILL BE AN ADDED THREAT.

..RACY.. 09/22/2008

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KCHS [221835]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 221835
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
235 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0130 PM RIP CURRENTS FOLLY BEACH 32.66N 79.92W
09/22/2008 CHARLESTON SC COUNTY OFFICIAL

FEW RIP CURRENTS SPOTTED BY LIFEGUARDS AT FOLLY BEACH
COUNTY PARK.

&&

$$

JHP

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 221720
SWODY2
SPC AC 221717

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1217 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2008

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LAST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER
SCALE TROUGH OVER THE NWRN STATES WILL MOVE FROM THE NRN/CNTRL
ROCKIES EARLY ON TUESDAY TO THE NRN PLNS STATES/UPR MS VLY BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. PRIMARY SFC LOW WILL TRAVEL NWD OUT OF THE NRN PLNS
MONDAY AND INTO MANITOBA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. TRAILING
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE REINFORCED AS THE LAST UPR SYSTEM SPREADS
ACROSS THE NRN PLNS. THIS FRONT WILL TRANSLATE E TO LIE FROM THE
UPR GRTLKS SWWD INTO IA AND SRN NEB BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.

...UPR MS VLY AND ERN PARTS OF NRN/CNTRL PLNS...
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING FROM THE ERN DAKS AND NW MN SWD
INTO PARTS OF CNTRL NEB AT 12Z TUESDAY...ALONG THE TRAILING PORTION
OF AN EJECTING LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH/COLD FRONT. CONVECTION/CLOUDS
SHOULD LINGER IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR OVER ESPECIALLY MN
THROUGH THE AFTN...LIMITING HEATING/DESTABILIZATION.

LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR FORCING WILL INCREASE QUICKLY DURING THE AFTN
AS THE NEXT IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE NRN/CNTRL PLNS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN 1/INTENSIFICATION OF EXISTING CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF MN
AND 2/DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL TSTMS SWWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO
THE MO VLY AND KS. COMPARATIVELY WEAKER INSTABILITY IN MN WILL
OFFSET STRONGER CONVERGENCE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXPECTED...LIMITING
THREATS FOR WIDESPREAD SVR WEATHER. FARTHER SW...STRONGER HEATING
AND STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES TO 1500
J/KG FROM THE MO VLY SWWD INTO KS. HOWEVER...THIS REGION WILL
REMAIN JUST S THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE
IS APT TO BE WEAKER. AS A RESULT...COVERAGE OF TSTMS...AND
ATTENDANT SVR THREATS...ARE EXPECTED TO ALSO BE ISOLD AT MORE SLY
LATITUDES ALONG THE FRONT. GIVEN A SVR STORM...LRG HAIL AND DMGG
WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY SVR THREAT.

TSTM INTENSITY WILL PEAK DURING THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE...WITH AN
EVOLUTION INTO A LOOSELY ORGANIZED LINEAR BAND FROM THE UPR MS VLY
SWWD INTO THE CORN BELT. THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
AFTER DARK WITH THE NRN END OF THE BAND MOVING INTO THE UPR GRTLKS
REGION AND THE SRN END MOVING MORE SLOWLY THROUGH IA AND KS.

..RACY.. 09/22/2008

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 221627
SWODY1
SPC AC 221624

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1124 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2008

VALID 221630Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

...NORTHERN PLAINS...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTHWEST
QUARTER OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY...WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS TRACKING FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
PRIMARY TROUGH IS CURRENTLY SHOWN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER PARTS
OF WESTERN WY-NORTHERN UT. THIS TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED LARGE
SCALE FORCING WILL OVERSPREAD THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS BY EARLY EVENING. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWED A SUBSTANTIAL
CAPPING INVERSION THAT WILL SUPPRESS SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION UNTIL
LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL MAINTAIN
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WITH POCKETS OF MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG
EXPECTED BY PEAK HEATING.

PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY EVENTUALLY
BECOME SURFACE-BASED AND INTENSIFY NEAR SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER
SOUTHERN ND/NORTHERN SD BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL THEN
LIKELY DEVELOP SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE FRONT TOWARD THE BLACK HILLS
AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE EVENING AS STORMS SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS RISK AREA.
SUPERCELL STORMS STRUCTURES ARE EXPECTED WITH A RISK OF LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CORES. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT
OVERALL TORNADO RISK.

..HART/JEWELL.. 09/22/2008

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KIND [221533]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KIND 221533
LSRIND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1133 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0443 PM HAIL 5 E INDIANAPOLIS 39.78N 86.05W
09/20/2008 U0.75 INCH MARION IN TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL REPORTED AT 38TH STREET AND SHADELAND.

0446 PM HAIL 3 ESE BAINBRIDGE 39.74N 86.76W
09/20/2008 U0.25 INCH PUTNAM IN LAW ENFORCEMENT

HAIL REPORTED IN THE HERITAGE LAKE AREA.

0507 PM TSTM WND GST 2 N CARPENTERSVILLE 39.83N 86.80W
09/20/2008 M67.00 MPH PUTNAM IN PUBLIC

A COUPLE OF TREES BLOWN OVER.

0530 PM TSTM WND DMG FISHERS 39.95N 86.02W
09/20/2008 HAMILTON IN DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

TREE DOWNED AT OLIO RD AND 104TH ST.

0535 PM HAIL TRAFALGAR 39.42N 86.15W
09/20/2008 E0.88 INCH JOHNSON IN EMERGENCY MNGR

HAIL DURATION 20 MINUTES.

&&

$$

DTUCEK

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KJAX [221425]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 221425
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1025 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0950 AM FUNNEL CLOUD 1 E PALM COAST 29.57N 81.20W
09/22/2008 FLAGLER FL PUBLIC

THE PUBLIC REPORTED A THIN ROPE-LIKE FUNNEL CLOUD. IT
LASTED FOR 5 MINUTES AND THEN DISSIPATED.

&&

$$

SHULER

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 221253
SWODY1
SPC AC 221250

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2008

VALID 221300Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT FROM WRN NEB TO THE DAKOTAS/NW MN...

...CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER NRN NV WILL EJECT NEWD TO
CENTRAL/ERN WY THIS EVENING AND THE DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT. LEE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH INVOF
THE NEB/WY/SD BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CYCLONE WILL THEN DEVELOP
NNEWD TOWARD NE ND LATE TONIGHT...WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES EWD
ACROSS NEB AND THE DAKOTAS. THE SURFACE FRONT AND LEE CYCLONE WILL
HELP FOCUS WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FROM SW NEB INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS...WHILE MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH
THE SURFACE LOW AND MID LEVEL TROUGH.

A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS OCCURRED DURING THE
PAST 24-48 HOURS...AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS NOW RANGE FROM 60-64
F FROM SE ND SWD TO ERN KS AND OK. RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND AN ASSOCIATED CAP WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE MOIST
AXIS FROM THE W...PRIOR TO MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING
THAT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE CAP WEAKENS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH AND FOCUSED ASCENT. EXPECT MLCAPE VALUES TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 1500 J/KG WITH DAYTIME HEATING FROM THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS INTO NEB BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A SLY LLJ OF
35-45 KT WILL BE MAINTAINED DURING THE DAY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TO THE ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN...AND THIS LLJ WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN SOME
TONIGHT. MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH FROM WY...LEADING TO SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NEB INTO THE DAKOTAS.

BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL BECOME RELATIVELY
LARGE DURING THE AFTERNOON TO THE E OF THE LEE CYCLONE IN WRN
NEB...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS
WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS. SOMEWHAT RICHER MOISTURE AND
COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS...WHERE THE
THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO SHOULD BE GREATER AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
INCREASES THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL
SD AND ERN ND AS CONVECTION LIKELY GROWS UPSCALE INTO AN MCS/SQUALL
LINE...THOUGH DIMINISHING INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO LIMIT THE SEVERE
THREAT BY ABOUT 06Z.

..THOMPSON/SMITH.. 09/22/2008

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 220834
SWOD48
SPC AC 220833

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0333 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2008

VALID 251200Z - 301200Z

...DISCUSSION...

COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SIGNIFICANT SHEAR WILL BE AT A
PREMIUM IN THE DAY4-5 TIME FRAME AS PRIMARY HIGH LEVEL WLY CURRENT
WILL REMAIN ALONG/NORTH OF THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY REGION THURSDAY PRIOR TO FRONTAL INTRUSION ON
FRIDAY. ASSOCIATED MOISTENING/ASCENT MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH INCREASED LLJ...THEN
ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT FRIDAY. HOWEVER FORECAST INSTABILITY IS
JUST TOO WEAK GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN TO WARRANT AN OUTLOOK AT
THIS TIME. BEYOND THE DAY5 TIME FRAME MODELS ARE TOO DIVERSE FOR
ANY MEANINGFUL PREDICTABILITY.

..DARROW.. 09/22/2008

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 220718
SWODY3
SPC AC 220716

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0216 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2008

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL NOT PROVE PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION DURING THE DAY3 PERIOD. WHILE MODEST
WLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE CONUS...WEAK LARGE
SCALE FORCING WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS MOST OF THE U.S. WHERE ANY
MEANINGFUL INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. ONE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ALONG WEAKLY CONVERGENT FRONTAL ZONE FROM NRN LOWER MI...SWWD INTO
IA. SRN FRINGE OF UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRUSH THIS REGION
WITH GFS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE NAM. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH THE LIKELIHOOD THAT IT
WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE ALONG SFC FRONT...WILL OPT NOT TO
INCLUDE SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.

FARTHER SOUTH...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN TO THE SERN U.S. AS AN UPPER LOW BECOMES BETTER
ORGANIZED AND PROPAGATES WWD INTO SC TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY OFFSHORE WITH THIS FEATURE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

..DARROW.. 09/22/2008

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 220546
SWODY2
SPC AC 220545

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2008

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...UPPER MS VALLEY TO CENTRAL PLAINS...

SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER MANITOBA AS IT LIFTS NORTH WITHIN
EXIT REGION OF STRONG JET TUESDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM OCCLUDES WELL
NORTH OF THE BORDER THE ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT WILL ARC ACROSS
MN...SWWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON. FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY THIS FRONTAL ZONE WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY NOTEWORTHY AS LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE RATHER WEAK. HOWEVER...BOTH THE
NAM...AND ESPECIALLY THE GFS SUGGEST A SECONDARY STRONG SPEED MAX
WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST WITHIN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS TOWARD MN. THIS SECONDARY FEATURE SHOULD SHARPEN THE
FRONTAL ZONE AND ENHANCE BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE...PRIMARILY OVER
THE UPPER MS VALLEY. DAYTIME HEATING ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE...COMBINED WITH ENHANCED ASCENT LATE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY AID
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS MN. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT
DESTABILIZE THIS REGION PARTICULARLY WELL WITH SFC-BASED CAPE
FORECAST TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG...TO PERHAPS 1000 J/KG NEAR
THE IA BORDER. STRONGER HEATING ALONG THE TRAILING FRONT INTO KS
SHOULD PROVE MORE UNSTABLE WITH UP TO 1500 J/KG SBCAPE...THROUGH
WEAKLY FORCED. IF INSTABILITY IS GREATER THAN FORECAST OVER MN THEN
A SLIGHT RISK COULD CERTAINLY BE WARRANTED DUE TO STRONGLY
FORCED/SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. REGARDLESS...A SQUALL LINE SHOULD
EVOLVE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD WITH THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION OF LAKE SUPERIOR/NWRN WI BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FARTHER SW...MORE ISOLATED...DIURNALLY DOMINANT...THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP SWWD ACROSS IA...SERN NEB INTO CNTRL KS. GUSTY WINDS
AND SOME HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONTAL ZONE.

..DARROW.. 09/22/2008

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 220537
SWODY1
SPC AC 220534

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2008

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS
AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

...NRN PLAINS AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IS FORECAST TO
MOVE QUICKLY NEWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES TODAY WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
ASCENT REACHING THE NRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC...A
WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT WILL ORGANIZE AND MOVE EWD INTO THE CNTRL
DAKOTAS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A 40 TO 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE PLAINS WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS LIKELY REACHING THE LOWER 60S F INTO PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS
BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AN AXIS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY FROM ERN ND SSWWD INTO NW NEB WITH MLCAPE VALUES LIKELY
REACHING THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS SHOW A
CAPPING INVERSION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THE CAP IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN BY LATE AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED STORM INITIATION
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT RAPIDLY INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS EVENING WITH
AN MCS DEVELOPING IN THE CNTRL DAKOTAS. DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE EJECTING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...A LARGE CLUSTER OF
STORMS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO ERN ND AND NW MN.

CONCERNING THE WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...A 50 TO 60 KT MID-LEVEL JET
IS FORECAST TO EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE JET
MAX WILL STRENGTHEN VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF
THE INSTABILITY AXIS WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING 0-6 KM SHEAR
GENERALLY REACHING THE 45 TO 55 KT RANGE. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY WITH STORMS THAT REMAIN DISCRETE
ALONG THE FRONT OR EWD INTO THE WARM SECTOR. THE THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL MAY BE GREATEST IN WCNTRL SD AND NW NEB WHERE TEMPS ALOFT WILL
BE COOL AND THE INSTABILITY/VERTICAL SHEAR COMBINATION IS FORECAST
TO BE MAXIMIZED. AN ISOLATED ROTATING STORM MAY ALSO OCCUR IN ERN WY
WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE STRONG AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
BE QUITE STEEP. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS EARLY THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE PLAINS...DISCRETE ROTATING STORMS IN THE CNTRL DAKOTAS
SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. THE
AMOUNT OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTATION OF THE
BOUNDARY MAY ALSO ENCOURAGE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SQUALL-LINE. IF
THIS OCCURS...HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS BY
THE EARLY TO MID-EVENING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY MARGINAL DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD AS STORMS BECOME ELEVATED IN NATURE.

..BROYLES/SMITH.. 09/22/2008

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