SWODY2
SPC AC 221717
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1217 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2008
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
LAST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER
SCALE TROUGH OVER THE NWRN STATES WILL MOVE FROM THE NRN/CNTRL
ROCKIES EARLY ON TUESDAY TO THE NRN PLNS STATES/UPR MS VLY BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. PRIMARY SFC LOW WILL TRAVEL NWD OUT OF THE NRN PLNS
MONDAY AND INTO MANITOBA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. TRAILING
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE REINFORCED AS THE LAST UPR SYSTEM SPREADS
ACROSS THE NRN PLNS. THIS FRONT WILL TRANSLATE E TO LIE FROM THE
UPR GRTLKS SWWD INTO IA AND SRN NEB BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
...UPR MS VLY AND ERN PARTS OF NRN/CNTRL PLNS...
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING FROM THE ERN DAKS AND NW MN SWD
INTO PARTS OF CNTRL NEB AT 12Z TUESDAY...ALONG THE TRAILING PORTION
OF AN EJECTING LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH/COLD FRONT. CONVECTION/CLOUDS
SHOULD LINGER IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR OVER ESPECIALLY MN
THROUGH THE AFTN...LIMITING HEATING/DESTABILIZATION.
LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR FORCING WILL INCREASE QUICKLY DURING THE AFTN
AS THE NEXT IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE NRN/CNTRL PLNS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN 1/INTENSIFICATION OF EXISTING CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF MN
AND 2/DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL TSTMS SWWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO
THE MO VLY AND KS. COMPARATIVELY WEAKER INSTABILITY IN MN WILL
OFFSET STRONGER CONVERGENCE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXPECTED...LIMITING
THREATS FOR WIDESPREAD SVR WEATHER. FARTHER SW...STRONGER HEATING
AND STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES TO 1500
J/KG FROM THE MO VLY SWWD INTO KS. HOWEVER...THIS REGION WILL
REMAIN JUST S THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE
IS APT TO BE WEAKER. AS A RESULT...COVERAGE OF TSTMS...AND
ATTENDANT SVR THREATS...ARE EXPECTED TO ALSO BE ISOLD AT MORE SLY
LATITUDES ALONG THE FRONT. GIVEN A SVR STORM...LRG HAIL AND DMGG
WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY SVR THREAT.
TSTM INTENSITY WILL PEAK DURING THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE...WITH AN
EVOLUTION INTO A LOOSELY ORGANIZED LINEAR BAND FROM THE UPR MS VLY
SWWD INTO THE CORN BELT. THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
AFTER DARK WITH THE NRN END OF THE BAND MOVING INTO THE UPR GRTLKS
REGION AND THE SRN END MOVING MORE SLOWLY THROUGH IA AND KS.
..RACY.. 09/22/2008
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