DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 280459
SWODY3
SPC AC 280458

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1058 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2009

VALID 301200Z - 011200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN ALOFT FCST TO CONTINUE THROUGH DAY-3...WHILE
TRANSLATING GENERALLY ESEWD ACROSS CONUS AND ADJACENT PORTIONS NRN
MEX. STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL
IMAGERY OVER CENTRAL CA -- IS DEVELOPING CLOSED/EMBEDDED MID-UPPER
CYCLONE THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THIS LOW SHOULD LIE
INVOF AZ/SONORA BORDER AT 30/12Z. THEREAFTER...PROGS OF 500 MB LOW
PATH BEGIN TO FAN OUT CONSIDERABLY...WITH ASSORTED SOLUTIONS FROM
CENTRAL CHIHUAHUA TO WRN NM BY END OF PERIOD. SREF CONSENSUS WOULD
PLACE THIS FEATURE OVER N-CENTRAL CHIHUAHUA...GENERALLY W OF BIG
BEND AND S OF ELP...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS SHAKY
GIVEN GREAT SPREAD IN GUIDANCE TRACKS.

MEANWHILE...PHASING OF NRN STREAM PERTURBATIONS SHOULD RESULT IN
POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH FROM UPPER GREAT LAKES TO OK AT
30/12Z...REACHING QUE..MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND CAROLINAS BY 1/12Z.
OPERATIONAL/SREF CONSENSUS IS MUCH STRONGER FOR THIS SCENARIO THAN
FOR CLOSED SWRN LOW. RELATED SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM
MID-ATLANTIC SWD ACROSS SRN APPALACHIANS...LA AND DEEP S TX BY START
OF PERIOD. FRONT THEN SHOULD PROCEED SSEWD OFFSHORE GULF COAST FROM
TX TO FL PANHANDLE...AND ACROSS PORTIONS NRN FL BY 1/12Z.

...GULF COASTAL STATES...
BAND OF PRECIP -- PERHAPS INCLUDING EMBEDDED TSTMS -- MAY BE ONGOING
INVOF FRONTAL ZONE AT START OF PERIOD...AND SHOULD AFFECT PORTIONS
GA/MS/AL...SRN LA AND DEEP S TX IN STEP WITH FRONTAL MOTION. STG
MID-UPPER FLOW IS FCST ABOVE...BUT ALSO PARALLEL TO...FRONTAL ZONE.
IN ADDITION...SFC WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT SHOULD CARRY STG WLY
COMPONENT...LIMITING BOTH SFC CONVERGENCE AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. SVR
POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO WEAK/CONDITIONAL FOR EVEN MRGL PROBABILITIES
ATTM...GIVEN THOSE FACTORS...AS WELL AS LIKELIHOOD OF RESTRICTED
DIABATIC HEATING UNDER CONSIDERABLE CLOUD/PRECIP COVER...AND
IMMATURITY OF RETURN-FLOW MODIFICATION IN TRAJECTORIES RETURNING
FROM GULF.

..EDWARDS.. 11/28/2009

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KALY [280319]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KALY 280319
LSRALY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1018 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG PALENVILLE 42.17N 74.02W
11/27/2009 GREENE NY LAW ENFORCEMENT

MULTIPLE TREES AND WIRES DOWN REPORTED BY GREENE COUNTY
SHERIFFS OFFICE WHICH OCCURRED BETWEEN 5 PM AND 7 PM.

0549 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG HALCOTT CENTER 42.19N 74.49W
11/27/2009 GREENE NY PUBLIC

VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS RESULTED IN FALLEN TREES AND
DEBRIS WITH POWER OUTAGES.

0723 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG WEST HURLEY 42.01N 74.11W
11/27/2009 ULSTER NY LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEVERAL TREES DOWN.

&&

$$

JQ

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KSTO [280128]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSTO 280128
LSRSTO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
528 PM PST FRI NOV 27 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0435 PM HAIL RANCHO CORDOVA 38.60N 121.30W
11/27/2009 M0.50 INCH SACRAMENTO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

HALF INCH HAIL SCATTERED OVER THE GROUND.

&&

$$

EKURTH

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KSTO [280117]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSTO 280117
LSRSTO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
516 PM PST FRI NOV 27 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0308 PM LIGHTNING 2 SE MARYSVILLE 39.13N 121.56W
11/27/2009 YUBA CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

*** 1 INJ *** CHP REPORTED WOMAN INJURED WHEN LIGHTNING
STRUCK POWER LINES AND WENT THROUGH VIDEO GAME SHE WAS
PLAYING.

&&

$$

EKURTH

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 280038
SWODY1
SPC AC 280037

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0637 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2009

VALID 280100Z - 281200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CALIFORNIA....
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND DESTABILIZATION NEAR A DEEPENING
MID-LEVEL LOW HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. ONGOING ACTIVITY...NEAR/EAST OF SAN FRANCISCO BAY
INTO THE SACRAMENTO/STOCKTON AREAS...HAS BEEN SLOWLY DEVELOPING
SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD...AND COULD CONTINUE TO DO SO. HOWEVER...THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING MAY STABILIZE SOUNDINGS ENOUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL VALLEY TO REDUCE THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO NEAR
NEGLIGIBLE LEVELS BY 02-03Z...IF NOT BEFORE.

AS THE DEVELOPING LOW CONTINUES TO DIG OVERNIGHT...MODELS ARE
SUGGESTIVE THAT STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING /500 MB COLD CORE OF -26
TO -28C/ AND LIFT MAY BEGIN TO IMPACT THE LOS ANGELES BASIN AND
ADJACENT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREAS BY 09-12Z. AS THIS
OCCURS...A SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MORE MOIST LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
...AS COMPARED TO AREAS TO THE NORTH...MAY SUPPORT SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

..KERR.. 11/28/2009

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KRNK [272159]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRNK 272159
LSRRNK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
459 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0350 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 4 E WHITETOP 36.59N 81.55W
11/27/2009 GRAYSON VA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

ONE TREE DOWN ON SCHOOL HOUSE ROAD.

0350 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 N WHITETOP 36.61N 81.62W
11/27/2009 GRAYSON VA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

ONE TREE DOWN ON OLD PARK ROAD.

&&

$$

WHP

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KAKQ [272022]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KAKQ 272022
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
322 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0235 AM HAIL NEWPORT NEWS 37.08N 76.51W
11/27/2009 M0.75 INCH CITY OF NEWPORT NE VA PUBLIC

&&

$$

MRUSNAK

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 271925
SWODY1
SPC AC 271923

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0123 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2009

VALID 272000Z - 281200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

NO CHANGES FOR THE 20Z OUTLOOK.

..BROYLES.. 11/27/2009

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2009/

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH
LIFTING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND COMBINED WITH PRONOUNCED 850-700 MB
THERMAL GRADIENT/WAA ORIENTED ALONG THE MA-ME COAST IS EXPECTED TO
FOCUS SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW MAY ALSO AID
IN THE OCCURRENCE OF A FEW EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES. OTHERWISE...A
COLD UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SACRAMENTO
VALLEY OF CA...WHICH WILL AID IN STEEPENING LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

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KRNK [271736]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRNK 271736
LSRRNK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1236 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0845 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG WEST JEFFERSON 36.40N 81.50W
11/27/2009 ASHE NC LAW ENFORCEMENT

TWO TREES DOWN IN WEST JEFFERSON.

&&

$$

JH

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 271702
SWODY2
SPC AC 271701

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1101 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2009

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS SRN CA SATURDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST OF
SRN CA IN THE CORE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT AND
SFC HEATING. LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO FORECAST BE STEEP ACROSS PARTS OF
AZ AND WRN NM SUGGESTING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THERE. NONE OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

..BROYLES.. 11/27/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 271607
SWODY1
SPC AC 271606

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1006 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2009

VALID 271630Z - 281200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH
LIFTING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND COMBINED WITH PRONOUNCED 850-700 MB
THERMAL GRADIENT/WAA ORIENTED ALONG THE MA-ME COAST IS EXPECTED TO
FOCUS SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW MAY ALSO AID
IN THE OCCURRENCE OF A FEW EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES. OTHERWISE...A
COLD UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SACRAMENTO
VALLEY OF CA...WHICH WILL AID IN STEEPENING LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

..GARNER/THOMPSON.. 11/27/2009

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KMFR [271544]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 271544
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
744 AM PST FRI NOV 27 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0740 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 N COOS BAY 43.41N 124.22W
11/27/2009 M1.64 INCH COOS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR ACCUMULATION ENDING AT 730AM

&&

$$

BUNKER

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KMFR [271541]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 271541
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
741 AM PST FRI NOV 27 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0740 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 NNW BROOKINGS 42.12N 124.32W
11/27/2009 M2.43 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR ACCUMULATION ENDING AT 7AM..HEAVIER RAIN FELL
LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

$$

BUNKER

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KMFR [271311]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 271311
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
511 AM PST FRI NOV 27 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0511 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 NE GOLD BEACH 42.45N 124.37W
11/27/2009 M1.60 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR ACCUMULATION ENDING AT 5AM.

&&

$$

BUNKER

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 271220
SWODY1
SPC AC 271219

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0619 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2009

VALID 271300Z - 281200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NEW ENGLAND...
SURFACE CYCLONE OFF THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL DEEPEN MARKEDLY
THROUGH EARLY SAT AS IT SHIFTS NWD TOWARDS NEW BRUNSWICK. AN
INTENSIFYING LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME TO THE N/NW OF THE CYCLONE TRACK
WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...FROM SRN NEW
ENGLAND COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING...INTO ME DURING THE AFTERNOON.

...CNTRL VALLEY OF CA...
DESPITE STRENGTHENING FORCED ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DIGGING ALONG THE CA COAST...MODEL FORECASTS ARE CONSISTENT
THAT DESTABILIZATION SHOULD REMAIN TOO WEAK TO WARRANT A CATEGORICAL
TSTM AREA ATTM.

..GRAMS/EVANS.. 11/27/2009

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KMHX [271148]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 271148
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
648 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0645 AM STORM SURGE OCRACOKE 35.10N 75.98W
11/27/2009 E0.00 FT HYDE NC MESONET

PORTIONS OCRACOKE VILLAGE UNDER WATER WITH SOUNDSIDE
WATER RISES OF AT LEAST 2 TO 3 FEET.

0600 AM STORM SURGE AVON 35.34N 75.50W
11/27/2009 E0.00 FT DARE NC COUNTY OFFICIAL

DOT AND COUNTY 911 REPORT 2 FEET OF WATER ON HIGHWAY 12
FROM THE PAMLICO SOUND. HIGHWAY 12 CLOSED NEAR AVON.

&&

$$

SJAMISON

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 270904
SWOD48
SPC AC 270903

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0303 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2009

VALID 301200Z - 051200Z

...DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR MID TO LATE WEEK WILL REMAIN TIED
TO SRN STREAM UPPER LOW /FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE SRN ROCKIES
THIS WEEKEND/ AS IT EJECTS ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. ECMWF AND GFS BOTH LIFT THE SYSTEM QUICKLY ENEWD
ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS/SERN
U.S. BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH THE GFS BEING APPROXIMATELY 12 HR
FASTER. SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST WEDNESDAY /DAY 6/. THE ECMWF LIFTS THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW
MORE NNEWD INTO THE TN VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER UPPER
LOW...WHILE GFS MAINTAINS A MORE ENEWD TRACK INTO THE CAROLINAS.
REGARDLESS...APPEARS SOME GRADUAL RECOVER WILL OCCUR OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND PERHAPS SUPPORT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
INTO THE CENTRAL/NERN GULF COAST REGION AHEAD OF PRIMARY SURFACE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FOR DAY 6-7. HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING BOTH QUALITY OF PRECEDING AIR
MASS/INSTABILITY AND WITH TIMING AND TRACK OF ENSUING SURFACE
FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING SRN STREAM SYSTEM TO WARRANT A
RISK AREA ATTM.

..EVANS.. 11/27/2009

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KAKQ [270819]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KAKQ 270819
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
319 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0238 AM MARINE TSTM WIND S CAPE CHARLES 37.26N 76.01W
11/27/2009 M40.00 MPH NORTHAMPTON VA BUOY

35KT GUST AT PLANTATION FLATS BUOY...WEATHERFLOW BUOY
X256

0308 AM MARINE TSTM WIND E CAPE HENRY 36.93N 76.01W
11/27/2009 M38.00 MPH ANZ632 VA BUOY

&&

$$

05

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KAKQ [270800]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KAKQ 270800
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
259 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0248 AM HAIL 2 NW HAMPTON 37.07N 76.32W
11/27/2009 E0.75 INCH CITY OF HAMPTON VA TRAINED SPOTTER

0252 AM HAIL HILTON VILLAGE 37.03N 76.46W
11/27/2009 E0.88 INCH CITY OF NEWPORT NE VA TRAINED SPOTTER

PENNY TO NICKEL HAIL IN HILTON...JUST SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
60.

&&

$$

05

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KAKQ [270745]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KAKQ 270745
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
245 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0237 AM HAIL FOX HILL 37.08N 76.29W
11/27/2009 E0.88 INCH CITY OF HAMPTON VA PUBLIC

NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED

0230 AM HAIL NEWPORT NEWS 37.08N 76.51W
11/27/2009 E0.25 INCH CITY OF NEWPORT NE VA PUBLIC

HEAVY PEA SIZED HAIL REPORTED FALLING ON LAKESIDE DR IN
NEWPORT NEWS

0228 AM HAIL 4 S PATRICK HENRY FIELD 37.07N 76.50W
11/27/2009 E0.25 INCH CITY OF NEWPORT NE VA TRAINED SPOTTER

HEAVY PEA HAIL OCCURRING

0240 AM HAIL HILTON VILLAGE 37.03N 76.46W
11/27/2009 E0.75 INCH CITY OF NEWPORT NE VA PUBLIC

&&

$$

05

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KAKQ [270640]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KAKQ 270640
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
139 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0115 AM FLOOD CHESTERFIELD 37.38N 77.51W
11/27/2009 CHESTERFIELD VA LAW ENFORCEMENT

WATER COVERING SEVERAL FLOOD PRONE ROADWAYS ACROSS THE
COUNTY

0135 AM HAIL 3 E GLOUCESTER COURTHOU 37.41N 76.47W
11/27/2009 E0.25 INCH GLOUCESTER VA TRAINED SPOTTER

PEA HAIL FALLING HEAVILY AND COVERING GROUND. WIND GUST
TO 40 MPH ALSO OBSERVED.

0125 AM HAIL LANCASTER 37.77N 76.47W
11/27/2009 E0.25 INCH LANCASTER VA TRAINED SPOTTER

PEA SIZED HAIL FALLING HEAVILY AND COVERING ROOF.

&&

$$

05

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 270530
SWODY1
SPC AC 270529

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 PM CST THU NOV 26 2009

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFICATION ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S. WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. A SIGNIFICANT EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVE IMPULSE IS ALREADY IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING OUT OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES...AND AN ASSOCIATED DEEPENING LOW/MID-LEVEL
CYCLONE IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHWARD ALONG OR NEAR NORTH ATLANTIC
COASTAL AREAS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...STRONGER BELTS OF POLAR AND
SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGELY OUT OF
PHASE...WITH A SIGNIFICANT SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE LIFTING ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GULF STATES...AS A STRONGER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH DIGS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS LATTER FEATURE IS
PROGGED TO EVOLVE INTO A DEEPENING CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

ALTHOUGH A SURFACE HIGH CENTER MAY BEGIN TO RETREAT EASTWARD OUT OF
THE WESTERN GULF COAST REGION IN RESPONSE TO THE EVOLVING UPPER
PATTERN...RIDGING WILL REMAIN PROMINENT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SUBSTANTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING AND DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AS A RESULT...STABLE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS MOST AREAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES...AS WELL
AS MUCH OF THE WEST...WITH GENERALLY LOW OR NEGLIGIBLE RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

...MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND...
AS THE STRONG SHORT WAVE IMPULSE SHIFTS EAST OF MID ATLANTIC COASTAL
AREAS EARLY IN THE DAY...PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR THIS
PERIOD APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME FOCUSED OVER THE GULF STREAM.
HOWEVER...IT STILL APPEARS A POSSIBILITY THAT DESTABILIZATION WITHIN
AN ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION ZONE TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE
DEEPENING CYCLONE COULD BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTAL AREAS
AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING...THROUGH DOWNEAST MAINE BY LATE AFTERNOON.

...CALIFORNIA...
DESPITE THE LIKELIHOOD OF STRONG FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING UPPER SYSTEM...GUIDANCE CURRENTLY
SUGGESTS THAT POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIVE DESTABILIZATION SUPPORTIVE
OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS TOO LOW FOR A CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK.

..KERR.. 11/27/2009

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