WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 370

WWUS20 KWNS 102046
SEL0
SPC WW 102046
IAZ000-KSZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-110400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 370
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
345 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN AND CENTRAL IOWA
NORTHEAST KANSAS
NORTHWEST MISSOURI
EASTERN NEBRASKA

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 345 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTHEAST OF
SPENCER IOWA TO 40 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TOPEKA KANSAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 368...WW 369...

DISCUSSION...TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR
INVOF OF COLD FRONT MOVING EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. LATEST
OBJECTIVE DATA INDICATE THAT PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS HAS BECOME
MODERATE-STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE RANGING FROM 1000-1500 J/KG
ACROSS NWRN IA TO 3000-3500 J/KG OVER NERN KS. WHILE STRONGER MID
AND HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELD LAGS WARM SECTOR TO THE W...A NARROW BAND
OF 30-40 KT SWLY DEEP-LAYER SHEAR COINCIDES WITH THE FRONT. AS
SUCH...SETUP WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF LINE SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELL STORM
MODES WITH AN ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 23025.


...MEAD

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KFFC [102043]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KFFC 102043
LSRFFC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
443 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0340 PM TSTM WND DMG WARNER ROBINS 32.62N 83.63W
06/10/2012 HOUSTON GA PUBLIC

THE PUBLIC REPORTED SEVERAL TREE LIMBS BROKEN BY
THUNDERSTORM WINDS IN THE WARNER ROBINS AREA.


&&

$$

DEESE

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KFFC [102041]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KFFC 102041
LSRFFC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
441 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0315 PM TSTM WND DMG HENDERSON 32.34N 83.79W
06/10/2012 HOUSTON GA LAW ENFORCEMENT

911 CENTER REPORTS THREE TO FIVE TREES DOWN ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE COUNTY IN VARIOUS LOCATIONS.


&&

$$

DEESE

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KTAE [102037]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTAE 102037
LSRTAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
437 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0419 PM TSTM WND DMG WSW DONALSONVILLE 31.04N 84.89W
06/10/2012 SEMINOLE GA LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN ON WILEY ST AND SOUTH MORRIS ST IN
DONALDSONVILLE.


&&

$$

LERICOS

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KABR [102032]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KABR 102032
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
331 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 AM HAIL 1 WNW HIGHMORE 44.53N 99.46W
06/10/2012 E1.00 INCH HYDE SD PUBLIC

HAIL LASTED BETWEEN 1 AND 2 MINUTES


&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1200201

$$

RV

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KMOB [102031]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMOB 102031
LSRMOB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
331 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1037 AM TSTM WND GST MONROEVILLE 31.53N 87.32W
06/10/2012 U0 MPH MONROE AL EMERGENCY MNGR

*** 1 INJ *** TREE FELL ON HOUSE.


&&

$$

JP

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KABR [102027]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KABR 102027
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
326 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1235 AM HAIL 3 NW FORT PIERRE 44.39N 100.42W
06/10/2012 E2.50 INCH STANLEY SD PUBLIC

2 TO 2.5 INCH HAIL....MAJOR VEHICLE DAMAGE


&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1200200

$$

NWS

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KABR [102025]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KABR 102025
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
325 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0105 AM HAIL 7 NW FORT PIERRE 44.43N 100.48W
06/10/2012 E1.00 INCH STANLEY SD PUBLIC

DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL. NEIGHBORS HAVE SHINGLE
DAMAGE.


&&

CORRECTED EVENT DATE

EVENT NUMBER ABR1200198

$$

NWS

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KABR [102024]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KABR 102024
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
324 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1235 AM HAIL 2 S OVERLOOK REC AREA 44.43N 100.38W
06/10/2012 E1.25 INCH HUGHES SD PUBLIC

HALF DOLLAR SIZED HAIL...TREE AND VEHICLE DAMAGE


&&

CORRECTED EVENT DATE

EVENT NUMBER ABR1200199

$$

NWS

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1114

ACUS11 KWNS 102011
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102010
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-102115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1114
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0310 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN IA...SERN NEB...FAR NWRN MO...FAR NERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 102010Z - 102115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...INITIATION OF TSTMS IS BECOMING MORE PROBABLE ALONG A SEWD
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. PRIMARY RISKS OF LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED...AND A WW MAY BE NECESSARY BY 22Z.

DISCUSSION...20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT ARCING SWWD AND
THEN WSWWD ACROSS SRN NEB/NRN KS...ADVANCING TOWARDS THE SE. WATER
VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...WITH INFLUENCE OF LEADING EDGE OF FORCED ASCENT/MIDLEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS DECREASING WITH SWD EXTENT. HOWEVER...STRONG
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT...ALONG WITH A HOT/WELL-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER...WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO WEAKEN ANY REMAINING CINH AND
LEAD TO RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS WRN IA.

VERY HOT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES /APPROACHING THE MID 90S ACROSS
SWRN IA/ COMBINED WITH MID-UPPER 60S SFC DEWPOINTS WILL YIELD MLCAPE
VALUES RANGING FROM 1500-3000 J/KG. INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD FAVOR CLUSTERS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN
IA...WHILE FARTHER S...WEAKER FORCED ASCENT AND VEERING MIDLEVEL
WINDS ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH MAY BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR DISCRETE STORMS OR SMALL LINE SEGMENTS INITIALLY. A
THREAT FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS...OWING TO STRONG BACKGROUND LOW-LEVEL
FLOW AND A HOT/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...WILL EXIST. LARGE HAIL
MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SRN
PORTIONS OF THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA.

..ROGERS/MEAD.. 06/10/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON 41949664 43369631 43499540 43449432 42689387 40559406
39839444 39449479 39449607 40239661 40849668 41949664

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KUNR [102010]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KUNR 102010
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
209 PM MDT SUN JUN 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0754 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 E DOWNTOWN RAPID CITY 44.07N 103.21W
06/09/2012 M52.00 MPH PENNINGTON SD NWS OFFICE

WIND GUST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE

0823 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 E DOWNTOWN RAPID CITY 44.07N 103.21W
06/09/2012 M60.00 MPH PENNINGTON SD NWS OFFICE

0900 PM TSTM WND GST 2 SE FARMINGDALE 43.95N 102.86W
06/09/2012 E60.00 MPH PENNINGTON SD TRAINED SPOTTER

0906 PM HAIL 7 SSW CREIGHTON 44.16N 102.25W
06/09/2012 M1.00 INCH PENNINGTON SD TRAINED SPOTTER

0915 PM TSTM WND GST WALL 43.99N 102.24W
06/09/2012 M59.00 MPH PENNINGTON SD MESONET

0920 PM TSTM WND GST 8 S WALL 43.88N 102.24W
06/09/2012 M67.00 MPH PENNINGTON SD MESONET

1005 PM HAIL 4 S PACTOLA RESERVOIR 44.01N 103.50W
06/09/2012 E0.75 INCH PENNINGTON SD NWS EMPLOYEE

1020 PM TSTM WND DMG PHILIP 44.05N 101.67W
06/09/2012 HAAKON SD LAW ENFORCEMENT

BRANCHES DOWN IN TOWN. LARGE TREE DOWN IN TOWN.

1020 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 N PHILIP 44.06N 101.67W
06/09/2012 HAAKON SD LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEMI BLOWN OVER AT WEIGH STATION.

1028 PM TSTM WND GST HERMOSA 43.84N 103.19W
06/09/2012 M63.00 MPH CUSTER SD MESONET

1030 PM TSTM WND GST 6 NNW KIRLEY 44.61N 101.34W
06/09/2012 E60.00 MPH HAAKON SD TRAINED SPOTTER

1030 PM HAIL 5 SSW DOWNTOWN RAPID CI 44.00N 103.26W
06/09/2012 E1.00 INCH PENNINGTON SD FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

QUARTER SIZE HAIL COVERING THE ROAD FROM CATRON AND
HIGHWAY 16 TO BEAR COUNTRY ON HIGHWAY 16.

1040 PM TSTM WND GST CAPUTA 43.99N 102.98W
06/09/2012 E80.00 MPH PENNINGTON SD TRAINED SPOTTER

1045 PM HAIL ELLSWORTH AFB 44.15N 103.10W
06/09/2012 E0.88 INCH MEADE SD OTHER FEDERAL

FLAT, NICKEL SIZED HAIL

1052 PM TSTM WND GST 15 SE DUPREE 44.90N 101.37W
06/09/2012 E70.00 MPH ZIEBACH SD TRAINED SPOTTER

SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. LOST ONE BARN AND ANOTHER HEAVILY
DAMAGED. HOUSE DAMAGED. LARGE COTTONWOOD TREE SPLIT IN
HALF. POWERLINES DOWN. ESTIMATED GUSTS 70 MPH PLUS.


&&

$$

DBARBER

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 369

WWUS20 KWNS 102004
SEL9
SPC WW 102004
MNZ000-110300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 369
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
305 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

MINNESOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 305 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
FAIRMONT MINNESOTA TO 30 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF INTERNATIONAL
FALLS MINNESOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 368...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING ATTENDANT TO DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVERSPREADS DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR. MODIFICATION OF 18Z
MPX SOUNDING FOR CURRENT SURFACE CONDITIONS SUGGESTS THAT THE CAP
HAS BECOME QUITE WEAK WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG. WHEN COUPLED
WITH A STEADILY STRENGTHENING TROPOSPHERIC WIND PROFILE...SETUP WILL
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORM MODES...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS
AND LINE SEGMENTS...CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 21030.


...MEAD

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KTAE [101951]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTAE 101951
LSRTAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
351 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0210 PM TSTM WND DMG ENTERPRISE 31.31N 85.85W
06/10/2012 COFFEE AL EMERGENCY MNGR

TREES DOWN IN THE TOWN OF ENTERPRISE


&&

$$

LERICOS

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 101951
SWODY1
SPC AC 101949

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0249 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

VALID 102000Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS
VALLEY...MID-MO VALLEY...CNTRL PLAINS AND SRN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN GULF
COAST STATES...

SEVERAL CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE OUTLOOK AT 20Z. THE FIRST
CHANGE IS TO EXPAND THE SIGNIFICANT HAIL HATCHED AREA SSWWD ACROSS
MUCH OF ERN KS WHERE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE
WITH MLCAPE IN THE 3000 TO 4000 J/KG RANGE. SHORT-TERM MODELS
DEVELOP CONVECTION ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM WICHITA TO TOPEKA
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THAT A THREAT FOR HAIL GREATER THAN 2
INCHES WILL EXIST THERE. THE SECOND CHANGE IS TO TRIM THE ERN EDGE
OF THE 15 PERCENT HAIL PROBABILITY IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY WHERE
CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATER TONIGHT FROM NCNTRL WI SSWWD
INTO ERN IA. THE THIRD CHANGE TO THE OUTLOOK IS TO TRIM THE WRN EDGE
OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA ACROSS AL AND THE FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE
BEHIND THE LINEAR MCS CURRENTLY MOVING EWD INTO SW GA.
OTHERWISE...THE ONLY CHANGES ARE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LINES.

..BROYLES.. 06/10/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012/

...SYNOPSIS...

ELONGATED VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND ASSOCIATED MID AND UPPER-LEVEL JET
STREAKS OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL PROGRESS ENEWD WITH A CORRIDOR
OF 500-MB HEIGHT FALLS IN EXCESS OF 50-100 M/12-HR OVERSPREADING THE
RED RIVER AND UPPER MS VALLEYS. STRENGTHENING MIDLEVEL FLOW FIELD
ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE N-CNTRL CONUS TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
THE ENEWD MOVEMENT OF UPPER TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND
CNTRL GULF STATES.

AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE FORMER SYSTEM MENTIONED
ABOVE WILL ADVANCE FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS EWD INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE SRN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH SWD/SEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. ELSEWHERE...SEGMENTED WARM FRONT
ACROSS THE GULF STATES INTO SRN APPALACHIANS WILL TEND TO WEAKEN
THROUGH THE D1 PERIOD.

...UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST INTO KS/OK...

12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A WELL-DEFINED EML AND
ASSOCIATED STRONG CAP HAS BEEN ADVECTED ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO
MID MO VALLEY ON THE SRN/SERN PERIPHERY OF N-CNTRL CONUS UPPER
TROUGH. AS SUCH...INITIAL SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
ANTICIPATED BY MID AFTERNOON ALONG NRN EXTENSION OF COLD FRONT /AND
PERHAPS PRE-EXISTING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/ OVER THE UPPER MS
VALLEY WHERE MORE SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS AND LOW-LEVEL UPLIFT WILL
ERODE WEAKER CAP. SUBSEQUENT SWWD DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ALONG FRONT
THROUGH THE MID MO VALLEY INTO PORTIONS OF KS/OK WILL LIKELY OCCUR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING OWING TO STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING AND SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE.

THE PRESENCE OF THE STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...AND INCREASED DIABATIC WARMING WILL YIELD A
MODERATE-STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES
RANGING FROM 1000-2000 J/KG OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO 2500-3500
J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF KS/OK. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
STRONGEST MID AND HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELD /AND RESULTANT VERTICAL
SHEAR/ WILL LAG WARM SECTOR TO THE W. HOWEVER...FORECAST HODOGRAPHS
DO SUGGEST THAT THE ERN FRINGE OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /I.E.
30-40 KT/ WILL COINCIDE WITH SURFACE FRONT...THOUGH ORIENTATION OF
SHEAR VECTORS WILL BE ALIGNED LARGELY PARALLEL WITH FRONT...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT
STORMS MAY TRANSITION TO A LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE WITHIN THE FIRST
HOUR OR TWO AFTER INITIATION WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS. THE GREATEST RISK FOR A TORNADO OR TWO WILL EXIST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF MN/WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WHERE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED ALONG LLJ AXIS.

...CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST STATES...

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A BELT OF 30-35 KT SWLY WINDS IN
THE 700-500-MB LAYER WILL DEVELOP NNEWD THROUGH THE FL PNHDL INTO
AL/WRN GA ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH. THIS STRENGTHENING
WIND FIELD WILL ALIGN WITH A SLY LLJ OF SIMILAR MAGNITUDE...YIELDING
A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR INCREASING
TO 30-35 KT. GIVEN THE MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS PRESENT
ACROSS THE REGION...ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORM MODES...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED RISK FOR A COUPLE TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN
FACT...VARIOUS CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN ARCING CONVECTIVE LINE DEVELOPING OVER SRN AL AND
THE FL PNHDL WHICH SUBSEQUENTLY MOVES INTO W-CNTRL/SWRN GA BY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE ON THIS AREA...SEE MCD 1111.

...SWRN OK INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TX...

A VERY HOT BOUNDARY LAYER /I.E. TEMPERATURES OF 100-105+ F/ IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INVOF DRYLINE AND NWRN TX THERMAL LOW THIS
AFTERNOON. AND WHILE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN
NEGLIGIBLE THROUGH THE PEAK OF THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE...THE
STRONG INSOLATION AND SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE ISOLATED STORMS. GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 3000-4000+ J/KG...SETUP WILL
FOSTER INTENSE UP/DOWNDRAFTS WITH AN ASSOCIATED RISK FOR LARGE HAIL
AND STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

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KBMX [101950]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBMX 101950
LSRBMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
250 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0212 PM TSTM WND DMG RICHARDS CROSSROADS 31.74N 85.26W
06/10/2012 BARBOUR AL EMERGENCY MNGR

ONE TREE REPORTED DOWN ON COUNTY ROAD 57 NEAR RICHARDS
CROSSROADS. ESTIMATED 50 MPH WIND GUSTS.


&&

$$

GGOGGINS

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KTAE [101948]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTAE 101948
LSRTAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
348 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 PM TSTM WND DMG BLUFFTON 31.52N 84.87W
06/10/2012 CLAY GA 911 CALL CENTER

TREE DOWN ON SAINS HATCHERY RD.


&&

$$

BOLDEN

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KJAX [101943]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 101943
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
343 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 PM FLOOD 1 N PALM COAST 29.58N 81.21W
06/10/2012 FLAGLER FL TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORTED THAT FLORIDA PARK DR IS FLOODED DUE TO
OVERFLOWING SWALES IN NORTH PALM COAST.


&&

$$

SPC

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KUNR [101937]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KUNR 101937
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
136 PM MDT SUN JUN 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0754 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 E DOWNTOWN RAPID CITY 44.07N 103.21W
06/09/2012 M52.00 MPH PENNINGTON SD NWS OFFICE

WIND GUST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE

0823 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 E DOWNTOWN RAPID CITY 44.07N 103.21W
06/09/2012 M60.00 MPH PENNINGTON SD NWS OFFICE

0900 PM TSTM WND GST 2 SE FARMINGDALE 43.95N 102.86W
06/09/2012 E60.00 MPH PENNINGTON SD TRAINED SPOTTER

0906 PM HAIL 7 SSW CREIGHTON 44.16N 102.25W
06/09/2012 M1.00 INCH PENNINGTON SD TRAINED SPOTTER

0915 PM TSTM WND GST WALL 43.99N 102.24W
06/09/2012 M59.00 MPH PENNINGTON SD MESONET

0920 PM TSTM WND GST 8 S WALL 43.88N 102.24W
06/09/2012 M67.00 MPH PENNINGTON SD MESONET

1005 PM HAIL 4 S PACTOLA RESERVOIR 44.01N 103.50W
06/09/2012 E0.75 INCH PENNINGTON SD NWS EMPLOYEE

1020 PM TSTM WND DMG PHILIP 44.05N 101.67W
06/09/2012 HAAKON SD LAW ENFORCEMENT

BRANCHES DOWN IN TOWN. LARGE TREE DOWN IN TOWN.

1020 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 N PHILIP 44.06N 101.67W
06/09/2012 HAAKON SD LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEMI BLOWN OVER AT WEIGH STATION.

1028 PM TSTM WND GST HERMOSA 43.84N 103.19W
06/09/2012 M63.00 MPH CUSTER SD MESONET

1030 PM TSTM WND GST 6 NNW KIRLEY 44.61N 101.34W
06/09/2012 E60.00 MPH HAAKON SD TRAINED SPOTTER

1030 PM HAIL 5 SSW DOWNTOWN RAPID CI 44.00N 103.26W
06/09/2012 E1.00 INCH PENNINGTON SD FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

QUARTER SIZE HAIL COVERING THE ROAD FROM CATRON AND
HIGHWAY 16 TO BEAR COUNTRY ON HIGHWAY 16.

1040 PM TSTM WND GST CAPUTA 43.99N 102.98W
06/09/2012 E80.00 MPH PENNINGTON SD TRAINED SPOTTER

1045 PM HAIL ELLSWORTH AFB 44.15N 103.10W
06/09/2012 E0.88 INCH MEADE SD OTHER FEDERAL

FLAT, NICKEL SIZED HAIL

1052 PM TSTM WND GST 15 SE DUPREE 44.90N 101.37W
06/09/2012 E70.00 MPH ZIEBACH SD TRAINED SPOTTER

SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. LOST ONE BARN AND ANOTHER HEAVILY
DAMAGED. HOUSE DAMAGED. LARGE COTTONWOOD TREE SPLIT IN
HALF. POWERLINES DOWN. ESTIMATED GUSTS 70 MPH PLUS.


&&

$$

DBARBER

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KUNR [101933]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 101933
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
133 PM MDT SUN JUN 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 PM TSTM WND GST 2 SE FARMINGDALE 43.95N 102.86W
06/09/2012 E60 MPH PENNINGTON SD TRAINED SPOTTER

1030 PM TSTM WND GST 6 NNW KIRLEY 44.61N 101.34W
06/09/2012 E60 MPH HAAKON SD TRAINED SPOTTER

1040 PM TSTM WND GST CAPUTA 43.99N 102.98W
06/09/2012 E80 MPH PENNINGTON SD TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

DBARBER

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KJAX [101927]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 101927
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
327 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0317 PM FLOOD 3 N MANDARIN 30.20N 81.63W
06/10/2012 DUVAL FL PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORTED MINOR STREET FLOODING ALONG SCOTT MILL RD
BETWEEN INDIAN HILL DRIVE AND BRIDALWOOD LANE.


&&

$$

SPC

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KJAX [101925]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 101925
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
325 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0255 PM HAIL 1 N PALM COAST 29.59N 81.21W
06/10/2012 M0.25 INCH FLAGLER FL EMERGENCY MNGR

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED PEA SIZE HAIL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF PALM COAST.

0304 PM HAIL 2 NW PALM COAST 29.59N 81.24W
06/10/2012 M0.88 INCH FLAGLER FL EMERGENCY MNGR

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED NICKEL SIZE HAIL IN
NORTHWEST PALM COAST.

0309 PM HAIL 2 N PALM COAST 29.60N 81.21W
06/10/2012 M1.00 INCH FLAGLER FL EMERGENCY MNGR

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN NORTH
CENTRAL PALM COAST.


&&

$$

SPC

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KJAX [101922]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 101922
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
322 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0305 PM HAIL PALM COAST 29.57N 81.21W
06/10/2012 E0.75 INCH FLAGLER FL TRAINED SPOTTER

DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED ALONG WITH MINOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS


&&

$$

JHESS

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KTAE [101922]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTAE 101922
LSRTAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
322 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0315 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 NW ABBEVILLE 31.60N 85.29W
06/10/2012 HENRY AL 911 CALL CENTER

TREES DOWN ON STATE HWY 10 WEST, 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF
ABBEYVILLE.


&&

$$

BOLDEN

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1113

ACUS11 KWNS 101903
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101902
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-102030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1113
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0202 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AL...SWRN GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 368...

VALID 101902Z - 102030Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 368 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...THROUGH MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN GEORGIA...LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A NEW
WW WILL NOT BE NEEDED EAST OF THE CURRENT WATCH...BUT TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...REFLECTIVITY STRUCTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN INITIAL
INLAND ADVANCING STORM CLUSTER HAS TAKEN ON AN INCREASINGLY BOWED
CONFIGURATION... WITH SOME INCREASE IN SPEED OF NORTHEASTWARD
PROPAGATION...WHICH MAY CONTINUE THROUGH AREAS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF
COLUMBUS BETWEEN NOW AND 20Z. AS ACTIVITY PROGRESSES INTO AREAS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA TO THE SOUTH OF MACON TOWARD THE 21-22Z TIME
FRAME...IT IS NOT CERTAIN THAT IT WILL MAINTAIN STRENGTH WITH A
CONTINUING RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. LATEST RAPID
REFRESH SUGGESTS THAT THE SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET AXIS WILL REMAIN
FOCUSED NEAR THE GEORGIA/ALABAMA BORDER AREA THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...WITH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR DECREASING WITH EASTWARD EXTENT
ACROSS GEORGIA.

..KERR.. 06/10/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...

LAT...LON 32628556 33388479 33138302 32558243 31238271 29898408
29508482 28878537 28728696 29288705 30998560 31848510
32628556

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KABR [101856]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KABR 101856
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
156 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1235 AM HAIL 2 S OVERLOOK REC AREA 44.43N 100.38W
06/09/2012 E1.25 INCH HUGHES SD PUBLIC

HALF DOLLAR SIZED HAIL...TREE AND VEHICLE DAMAGE


&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1200199

$$

NWS

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1112

ACUS11 KWNS 101843
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101842 COR
MNZ000-101930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1112
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0142 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN/NRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 101842Z - 101930Z

CORRECTED FOR GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE IN TEXT

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS SHOULD RAPIDLY DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN/NRN MN. PRIMARY THREATS OF DMGG WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED...AND A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY AROUND
20Z.

DISCUSSION...18Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT FROM
10 SE FSD TO 40 N BJI...WITH A WEAK SFC LOW POSITIONED NEAR VVV. THE
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IS CHARACTERIZED BY A HOT/MOIST
AIR MASS...WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
HEAT INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN
THE MID 60S...YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1500 J/KG /PER MODIFIED
18Z MPX SOUNDING/. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER FROM IMMEDIATELY E AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND AREAS FARTHER
W. POST-FRONTAL ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THE PAST HR
OVER PARTS OF SERN ND...AND IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING EDGE
OF STRONGER FORCED ASCENT ACCOMPANYING AN UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH.

PERSISTENT FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND CONTINUED DIABATIC HEATING SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT TO WEAKEN CINH WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS...AND ALONG
WITH INCREASING MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH...WILL RESULT IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...PERHAPS ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF
CLOUDINESS OVER WRN AND N-CNTRL MN.

CONVECTIVE MODE MAY INITIALLY FAVOR DISCRETE STORMS OR SMALL
CLUSTERS...BUT GIVEN SIGNIFICANT MERIDIONAL DEEP-LAYER FLOW
COMPONENT...A TRANSITION TO A LINEAR MODE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
RATHER QUICKLY. THIS...ALONG WITH STRAIGHT LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS...SHOULD LIMIT THE TORNADO RISK. THE THREAT FOR DMGG WIND
WILL BE ENHANCED BY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OWING TO STRONG
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING/MIXING...AND BACKGROUND 0-3 KM FLOW NEAR 30
KTS /PER MPX VWP/. ADDITIONALLY...A HAIL THREAT COULD ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGEST EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE CORES GIVEN SUFFICIENT BACKGROUND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES /20-30 KTS/ AND MODERATE INSTABILITY.

..ROGERS/MEAD.. 06/10/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

LAT...LON 48509269 46069344 43909456 43829636 45579619 47309526
48729441 48509269

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KMOB [101837]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMOB 101837
LSRMOB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
137 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 AM RIP CURRENTS 3 S GULF BREEZE 30.32N 87.20W
06/10/2012 GMZ655 FL EMERGENCY MNGR

*** 1 FATAL *** 3 SWIMMERS PULLED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
AT PENSACOLA BEACH...1 FATALITY.


&&

$$

JP

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1112

ACUS11 KWNS 101835
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101834
MNZ000-101930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1112
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0134 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN/NRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 101834Z - 101930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS SHOULD RAPIDLY DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN/NRN MN. PRIMARY THREATS OF DMGG WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED...AND A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY AROUND
20Z.

DISCUSSION...18Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT FROM
10 SE FSD TO 40 N BJI...WITH A WEAK SFC LOW POSITIONED NEAR VVV. THE
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IS CHARACTERIZED BY A HOT/MOIST
AIR MASS...WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
HEAT INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN
THE MID 60S...YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1500 J/KG /PER MODIFIED
18Z MPX SOUNDING/. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER FROM IMMEDIATELY E AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND AREAS FARTHER
W. POST-FRONTAL ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THE PAST HR
OVER PARTS OF SWRN SD...AND IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING EDGE
OF STRONGER FORCED ASCENT ACCOMPANYING AN UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH.

PERSISTENT FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND CONTINUED DIABATIC HEATING SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT TO WEAKEN CINH WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS...AND ALONG
WITH INCREASING MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH...WILL RESULT IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...PERHAPS ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF
CLOUDINESS OVER WRN AND N-CNTRL MN.

CONVECTIVE MODE MAY INITIALLY FAVOR DISCRETE STORMS OR SMALL
CLUSTERS...BUT GIVEN SIGNIFICANT MERIDIONAL DEEP-LAYER FLOW
COMPONENT...A TRANSITION TO A LINEAR MODE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
RATHER QUICKLY. THIS...ALONG WITH STRAIGHT LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS...SHOULD LIMIT THE TORNADO RISK. THE THREAT FOR DMGG WIND
WILL BE ENHANCED BY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OWING TO STRONG
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING/MIXING...AND BACKGROUND 0-3 KM FLOW NEAR 30
KTS /PER MPX VWP/. ADDITIONALLY...A HAIL THREAT COULD ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGEST EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE CORES GIVEN SUFFICIENT BACKGROUND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES /20-30 KTS/ AND MODERATE INSTABILITY.

..ROGERS/MEAD.. 06/10/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

LAT...LON 48509269 46069344 43909456 43829636 45579619 47309526
48729441 48509269

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KTAE [101833]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS52 KTAE 101833
LSRTAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
233 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1215 PM TORNADO 6 N GENEVA 31.12N 85.86W
06/10/2012 GENEVA AL EMERGENCY MNGR

TREES UPROOTED ON TOM FAIN RD


&&

$$

BOLDEN

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KABR [101831]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KABR 101831
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
131 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0105 AM HAIL 7 NW FORT PIERRE 44.43N 100.48W
06/09/2012 E1.00 INCH STANLEY SD PUBLIC

DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL. NEIGHBORS HAVE SHINGLE
DAMAGE.


&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1200198

$$

NWS

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KTAE [101831]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTAE 101831
LSRTAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
231 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0206 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 S DEAN CHURCH ROAD 30.69N 86.12W
06/10/2012 WALTON FL EMERGENCY MNGR

NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ACROSS WESTERN SIDE OF COUNTY.


&&

$$

BOLDEN

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KTAE [101827]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTAE 101827
LSRTAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
227 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1215 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 N GENEVA 31.12N 85.86W
06/10/2012 GENEVA AL EMERGENCY MNGR

TREES UPROOTED ON TOM FAIN RD


&&

$$

BOLDEN

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KCYS [101815]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KCYS 101815
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1215 PM MDT SUN JUN 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 19 SE LARAMIE 41.12N 105.32W
06/10/2012 E62.00 MPH ALBANY WY MESONET

BUFORD SITE

0717 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 SE LARAMIE 41.18N 105.41W
06/10/2012 M58.00 MPH ALBANY WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SUSTAINED 44 MPH...VEDAUWOO SITE

0745 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 19 SE LARAMIE 41.12N 105.32W
06/10/2012 E69.00 MPH ALBANY WY MESONET

SUSTAINED 43 MPH...BUFORD SITE

0745 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 14 WSW CHEYENNE 41.07N 105.04W
06/10/2012 E66.00 MPH LARAMIE WY MESONET

EMKAY SITE

0830 AM HIGH SUST WINDS 14 WSW CHEYENNE 41.07N 105.04W
06/10/2012 E40.00 MPH LARAMIE WY MESONET

SUSTAINED WINDS OF 41-56 MILES AN HOUR GUSTING AS HIGH AS
66 MPH FROM 1315 TO 1430Z...15 MINUTE
OBSERVATIONS...EMKAY SITE

0900 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 19 SE LARAMIE 41.12N 105.32W
06/10/2012 E68.00 MPH ALBANY WY MESONET

SUSTAINED 46 MPH...BUFORD SITE

0915 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 19 SE LARAMIE 41.12N 105.32W
06/10/2012 E67.00 MPH ALBANY WY MESONET

SUSTAINED 53 MPH...BUFORD SITE

0915 AM HIGH SUST WINDS 19 SE LARAMIE 41.12N 105.32W
06/10/2012 E40.00 MPH ALBANY WY MESONET

SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 43-53 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS
69 MPH FROM 1315-1515Z...15 MINUTE OBSERVATIONS...BUFORD
SITE


&&

$$

HUTCHEON

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KABR [101747]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KABR 101747
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1247 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0110 AM TSTM WND DMG 1 N AGAR 44.85N 100.07W
06/10/2012 SULLY SD PUBLIC

TREE REPORTED BLOWN OVER IN RESIDENTS YARD. ESTIMATED
60 MPH WINDS.


&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1200197

$$

TROGDON

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KTAE [101744]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTAE 101744
LSRTAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
143 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1248 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 3 SE DALEVILLE 31.27N 85.67W
06/10/2012 DALE AL PUBLIC

FUNNEL CLOUD OVER DALEVILLE MOVING NORTHEAST.


&&

$$

BOLDEN

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 101724
SWODY2
SPC AC 101723

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1223 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
OZARKS...ARKLATEX AND SRN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS...

...SRN PLAINS/ARKLATEX/OZARKS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS
WILL PROGRESS EWD MONDAY. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
SEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND OZARK PLATEAU. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY MIDDAY
WITH A BROAD WARM SECTOR EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND
LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY. MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
DEVELOPING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR WITH THE GREATEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LOCATED FROM SRN MO SWD
ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU AND WWD INTO ERN OK.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT SPRINGFIELD MO AND LITTLE ROCK AR AT 21Z
MONDAY SHOW MLCAPE RANGING FROM 2500 TO 4000 J/KG SUGGESTING
THERMODYNAMICS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. IN
ADDITION...ENOUGH SPEED SHEAR IS PRESENT ABOVE 850 MB IN THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS TO PRODUCE MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS
ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WITH ROTATING
STORMS THAT DEVELOP. THE BETTER ORGANIZED MULTICELLS COULD ALSO
PRODUCE A WIND DAMAGE THREAT.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
A SHARPLY-DEFINED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS MONDAY. AN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST NORTH OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING WEST FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO
ERN NM WHERE THE MODELS DEVELOP MODERATE INSTABILITY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IN SPITE OF THIS...WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL LIKELY
PREVENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. FURTHER
WEST...THE MODELS DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SRN ROCKIES IN NCNTRL NM AND SRN CO. THE NAM SOLUTION BRINGS THIS
CONVECTION SEWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 06Z TUESDAY AT TUCUMCARI AND LUBBOCK SHOW
MLCAPE IN THE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE WITH 35 TO 40 KT OF 0-6 KM
SHEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...THE THREAT IS
CONDITIONAL UPON STORM INITIATION. IF STORM INITIATION IS DELAYED
UNTIL LATE EVENING ACROSS ERN NM AND WEST TX...THEN THE SEVERE
THREAT COULD BE ISOLATED OR SOMEWHAT MARGINAL.

...GREAT LAKES/LOWER OH VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS MONDAY AS A
PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. AT THE
SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SEWD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY...MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST FROM LOWER MI
SWWD INTO IL WHERE THE MODELS DEVELOP SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT GRAND RAPIDS MI AND AT CHICAGO SHOW
MLCAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 20 KT. THIS MAY
BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT NEAR PEAK HEATING LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WOULD LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS.

..BROYLES.. 06/10/2012

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 368

WWUS20 KWNS 101642
SEL8
SPC WW 101642
ALZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-110000-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 368
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA
FLORIDA PANHANDLE
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1145 AM UNTIL 700
PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PANAMA
CITY FLORIDA TO 15 MILES NORTH OF COLUMBUS GEORGIA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...LOW TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD WILL STRENGTHEN
TODAY AHEAD OF MIGRATORY UPPER LOW WITH SUFFICIENT LOW- AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR DEVELOPING TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES DOWNSTREAM FROM A LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WHICH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE FROM W-E ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. GIVEN THE VERY
MOIST...MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS PRESENT...SETUP WILL SUPPORT
LOW-LEVEL STORM ROTATION WITH AN ASSOCIATED RISK FOR TORNADOES AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 20025.


...MEAD

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KCYS [101643]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 101643
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1042 AM MDT SUN JUN 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0915 AM HIGH SUST WINDS 19 SE LARAMIE 41.12N 105.32W
06/10/2012 E40.00 MPH ALBANY WY MESONET

SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 43-53 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS
69 MPH FROM 1315-1515Z...15 MINUTE OBSERVATIONS...BUFORD
SITE

0915 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 19 SE LARAMIE 41.12N 105.32W
06/10/2012 E67.00 MPH ALBANY WY MESONET

SUSTAINED 53 MPH...BUFORD SITE


&&

$$

HUTCHEON

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KTAE [101641]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTAE 101641
LSRTAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1240 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1235 PM TORNADO 3 NNE GENEVA 31.08N 85.86W
06/10/2012 GENEVA AL TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORTS TREES DOWN AND STRUCTURAL DAMAGE ON NEVA
DRIVE IN ROAD JUST NORTH OF GENEVA

1235 PM TORNADO N CHANCELLOR 31.18N 85.88W
06/10/2012 GENEVA AL LAW ENFORCEMENT

TORNADO SITED BY RETIRED POLICE OFFICER IN CHANCELLOR, AL



&&

$$

LERICOS

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 101619
SWODY1
SPC AC 101617

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1117 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

VALID 101630Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST INTO PORTIONS OF KS/OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF AL/GA/FL...

...SYNOPSIS...

ELONGATED VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND ASSOCIATED MID AND UPPER-LEVEL JET
STREAKS OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL PROGRESS ENEWD WITH A CORRIDOR
OF 500-MB HEIGHT FALLS IN EXCESS OF 50-100 M/12-HR OVERSPREADING THE
RED RIVER AND UPPER MS VALLEYS. STRENGTHENING MIDLEVEL FLOW FIELD
ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE N-CNTRL CONUS TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
THE ENEWD MOVEMENT OF UPPER TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND
CNTRL GULF STATES.

AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE FORMER SYSTEM MENTIONED
ABOVE WILL ADVANCE FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS EWD INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE SRN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH SWD/SEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. ELSEWHERE...SEGMENTED WARM FRONT
ACROSS THE GULF STATES INTO SRN APPALACHIANS WILL TEND TO WEAKEN
THROUGH THE D1 PERIOD.

...UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST INTO KS/OK...

12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A WELL-DEFINED EML AND
ASSOCIATED STRONG CAP HAS BEEN ADVECTED ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO
MID MO VALLEY ON THE SRN/SERN PERIPHERY OF N-CNTRL CONUS UPPER
TROUGH. AS SUCH...INITIAL SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
ANTICIPATED BY MID AFTERNOON ALONG NRN EXTENSION OF COLD FRONT /AND
PERHAPS PRE-EXISTING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/ OVER THE UPPER MS
VALLEY WHERE MORE SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS AND LOW-LEVEL UPLIFT WILL
ERODE WEAKER CAP. SUBSEQUENT SWWD DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ALONG FRONT
THROUGH THE MID MO VALLEY INTO PORTIONS OF KS/OK WILL LIKELY OCCUR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING OWING TO STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING AND SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE.

THE PRESENCE OF THE STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...AND INCREASED DIABATIC WARMING WILL YIELD A
MODERATE-STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES
RANGING FROM 1000-2000 J/KG OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO 2500-3500
J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF KS/OK. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
STRONGEST MID AND HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELD /AND RESULTANT VERTICAL
SHEAR/ WILL LAG WARM SECTOR TO THE W. HOWEVER...FORECAST HODOGRAPHS
DO SUGGEST THAT THE ERN FRINGE OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /I.E.
30-40 KT/ WILL COINCIDE WITH SURFACE FRONT...THOUGH ORIENTATION OF
SHEAR VECTORS WILL BE ALIGNED LARGELY PARALLEL WITH FRONT...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT
STORMS MAY TRANSITION TO A LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE WITHIN THE FIRST
HOUR OR TWO AFTER INITIATION WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS. THE GREATEST RISK FOR A TORNADO OR TWO WILL EXIST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF MN/WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WHERE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED ALONG LLJ AXIS.

...CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST STATES...

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A BELT OF 30-35 KT SWLY WINDS IN
THE 700-500-MB LAYER WILL DEVELOP NNEWD THROUGH THE FL PNHDL INTO
AL/WRN GA ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH. THIS STRENGTHENING
WIND FIELD WILL ALIGN WITH A SLY LLJ OF SIMILAR MAGNITUDE...YIELDING
A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR INCREASING
TO 30-35 KT. GIVEN THE MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS PRESENT
ACROSS THE REGION...ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORM MODES...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED RISK FOR A COUPLE TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN
FACT...VARIOUS CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN ARCING CONVECTIVE LINE DEVELOPING OVER SRN AL AND
THE FL PNHDL WHICH SUBSEQUENTLY MOVES INTO W-CNTRL/SWRN GA BY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE ON THIS AREA...SEE MCD 1111.

...SWRN OK INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TX...

A VERY HOT BOUNDARY LAYER /I.E. TEMPERATURES OF 100-105+ F/ IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INVOF DRYLINE AND NWRN TX THERMAL LOW THIS
AFTERNOON. AND WHILE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN
NEGLIGIBLE THROUGH THE PEAK OF THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE...THE
STRONG INSOLATION AND SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE ISOLATED STORMS. GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 3000-4000+ J/KG...SETUP WILL
FOSTER INTENSE UP/DOWNDRAFTS WITH AN ASSOCIATED RISK FOR LARGE HAIL
AND STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

..MEAD/ROGERS.. 06/10/2012

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KLIX [101551]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLIX 101551
LSRLIX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1051 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1034 AM FLASH FLOOD 3 S PICAYUNE 30.49N 89.68W
06/10/2012 PEARL RIVER MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT IN THE TOWN OF NICHOLSON REPORTED
FLOODED AND BARRICADED INTERSECTION OF OLIVER DAVIS ROAD
AND SECTION.


&&

$$

MEFFERSO

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KCYS [101545]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 101545
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
945 AM MDT SUN JUN 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 19 SE LARAMIE 41.12N 105.32W
06/10/2012 E62.00 MPH ALBANY WY MESONET

BUFORD SITE

0717 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 SE LARAMIE 41.18N 105.41W
06/10/2012 M58.00 MPH ALBANY WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SUSTAINED 44 MPH...VEDAUWOO SITE

0745 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 14 WSW CHEYENNE 41.07N 105.04W
06/10/2012 E66.00 MPH LARAMIE WY MESONET

EMKAY SITE

0745 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 19 SE LARAMIE 41.12N 105.32W
06/10/2012 E69.00 MPH ALBANY WY MESONET

SUSTAINED 43 MPH...BUFORD SITE

0830 AM HIGH SUST WINDS 14 WSW CHEYENNE 41.07N 105.04W
06/10/2012 E40.00 MPH LARAMIE WY MESONET

SUSTAINED WINDS OF 41-56 MILES AN HOUR GUSTING AS HIGH AS
66 MPH FROM 1315 TO 1430Z...15 MINUTE
OBSERVATIONS...EMKAY SITE

0900 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 19 SE LARAMIE 41.12N 105.32W
06/10/2012 E68.00 MPH ALBANY WY MESONET

SUSTAINED 46 MPH...BUFORD SITE


&&

$$

HUTCHEON

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KLIX [101544]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLIX 101544
LSRLIX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1044 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0734 AM FLASH FLOOD MANDEVILLE 30.37N 90.08W
06/10/2012 ST. TAMMANY LA NWS EMPLOYEE

NWS EMPLOYEES OBSERVED SEVERAL STREETS ACROSS MANDEVILLE
WITH 1 TO 2 FEET OF WATER COVERING THE ROADWAYS MAKING
THEM IMPASSIBLE.


&&

$$

MEFFERSO

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1111

ACUS11 KWNS 101527
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101527
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-101700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1111
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1027 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/ERN AL...FL PNHDL AND PARTS OF WRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 101527Z - 101700Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...IT IS NOT CERTAIN THAT A WW WILL BE NEEDED...PARTICULARLY
IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING
SEVERE THREAT THAT COULD REQUIRE A WW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE
PROBABILITIES WILL BE INCREASED TO A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK IN THE
UPCOMING 1630Z OUTLOOK FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS MODEL PROGS IN SUGGESTING
THAT ANOTHER MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS IN THE PROCESS OF GRADUALLY
MIGRATING INLAND ACROSS LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI COASTAL AREAS.
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS SLOWLY
INTENSIFYING EAST OF MOBILE BAY INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EAST OF THE
LINE...ALONG A ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE JUST INLAND OF
THE COAST...ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. THE COASTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...COUPLED WITH MODESTLY
LARGE AND CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...MAY CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED...BRIEF TORNADOES
THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS.

THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES APPEAR CHARACTERIZED BY A HIGH DEGREE OF
SATURATION IN LOWER LEVELS...ALONG WITH SIZABLE CAPE. AND INLAND
ADVECTION OF LOWER/MID 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH EASTERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN
GEORGIA...AS A 30-40 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET LIFTS NORTHWARD OUT OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO.

HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING AND THE DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF HIGHER
MOMENTUM AIR TO THE SURFACE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A MORE SUBSTANTIVE
RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON... AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS EASTERN ALABAMA
AND WESTERN GEORGIA. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE RISK FOR
TORNADOES COULD INCREASE...BOTH WITHIN THE LINE...AND IN A WEAK
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME DEVELOPING NORTHEASTWARD JUST AHEAD
OF IT.

..KERR/MEAD.. 06/10/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON 30248718 31178694 32608670 33098600 33188463 32388376
31098440 29418566 28838698 29238775 30248718

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KGGW [101502]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS55 KGGW 101502
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
901 AM MDT SUN JUN 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1130 PM TSTM WND GST 13 ESE HELL CREEK REC A 47.58N 106.62W
06/08/2012 E60.00 MPH GARFIELD MT TRAINED SPOTTER

NICKEL SIZE HAIL LASTED ABOUT 10 MINUTES


&&

$$

BMOYER

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KFGF [101440]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 101440
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
940 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 AM HAIL 1 SE TWIN VALLEY 47.25N 96.24W
06/10/2012 E1.00 INCH NORMAN MN PUBLIC

HAIL RANGED FROM PEAS TO QUARTERS IN SIZE.


&&

$$

JKAISER

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KFGF [101430]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 101430
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
930 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0927 AM HAIL BEJOU 47.44N 95.97W
06/10/2012 M0.75 INCH MAHNOMEN MN TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

JKAISER

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KTAE [101418]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTAE 101418
LSRTAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1017 AM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN GENEVA 31.04N 85.88W
06/10/2012 M3.75 INCH GENEVA AL CO-OP OBSERVER

CO-OP OBSERVER AT GENEVA REPORTED A 24 HOUR TOTAL OF 3.75
INCHES OF RAIN ENDING AT 7 AM CDT.


&&

$$

DVD

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KLBF [101408]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KLBF 101408
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
908 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 WNW HI 26 MILE MARKER 41.45N 102.48W
06/10/2012 M56.00 MPH GARDEN NE MESONET

UNION PACIFIC SITE 358


&&

$$

CDC

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KLBF [101407]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 101407
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
906 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0904 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 WNW HI 26 MILE MARKER 41.45N 102.48W
06/10/2012 M56 MPH GARDEN NE MESONET

UNION PACIFIC SITE 358


&&

$$

CDC

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