KAMA [030255]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 030255
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
855 PM CST THU FEB 02 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0852 PM HAIL STINNETT 35.82N 101.44W
02/02/2012 E1.00 INCH HUTCHINSON TX FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

PEA TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1200052

$$

M. SCOTTEN

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KAMA [030244]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 030244
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
844 PM CST THU FEB 02 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0827 PM HAIL 1 W LAKE MEREDITH 35.65N 101.68W
02/02/2012 E1.00 INCH MOORE TX BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1200051

$$

KRAUSE

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KPUB [030226]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS55 KPUB 030226
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
726 PM MST THU FEB 02 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0706 PM SNOW 5 N PEYTON 39.10N 104.48W
02/02/2012 M8.0 INCH EL PASO CO BROADCAST MEDIA

BIJOU BASIN NORTH OF PEYTON

&&

$$

KMOZLEY

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KPUB [030219]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 030219
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
719 PM MST THU FEB 02 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0703 PM SNOW BLACK FOREST 39.02N 104.70W
02/02/2012 M4.0 INCH EL PASO CO BROADCAST MEDIA

SINCE 1700 THIS AFTERNOON

0706 PM SNOW PEYTON 39.03N 104.48W
02/02/2012 M8.0 INCH EL PASO CO BROADCAST MEDIA

BIJOU BASIN NORTH OF PEYTON

0711 PM SNOW 7 SE CALHAN 38.96N 104.21W
02/02/2012 M6.0 INCH EL PASO CO BROADCAST MEDIA

ON FUNK ROAD

0714 PM SNOW 2 SE PENROSE 38.41N 104.99W
02/02/2012 M1.0 INCH FREMONT CO TRAINED SPOTTER

STARTED AT 1400 THIS AFTERNOON

&&

$$

KMOZLEY

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KPUB [030217]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 030217
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
717 PM MST THU FEB 02 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0710 PM SNOW 3 N PUEBLO RESERVOIR 38.30N 104.75W
02/02/2012 M2.0 INCH PUEBLO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

RMG

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KPUB [030208]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 030208
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
708 PM MST THU FEB 02 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 PM SNOW 2 N BLACK FOREST 39.05N 104.71W
02/02/2012 M1.0 INCH EL PASO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

RMG

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KPUB [030155]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 030155
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
655 PM MST THU FEB 02 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0655 PM SNOW 2 NNE FALCON 38.96N 104.60W
02/02/2012 M6.8 INCH EL PASO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

4.25 INCHES IN LAST 2 HOURS

&&

$$

KMOZLEY

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KPUB [030155]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 030155
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
655 PM MST THU FEB 02 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

&&

$$

KMOZLEY

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KPUB [030152]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 030152
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
652 PM MST THU FEB 02 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0650 PM SNOW 2 W SOUTH FORK 37.67N 106.65W
02/02/2012 M2.0 INCH RIO GRANDE CO TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

RMG

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KPUB [030149]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 030149
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
649 PM MST THU FEB 02 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0643 PM SNOW 3 NW PEYTON 39.06N 104.52W
02/02/2012 M5.0 INCH EL PASO CO BROADCAST MEDIA

SINCE 1530 THIS AFTERNOON

0646 PM SNOW 7 E FOUNTAIN 38.68N 104.57W
02/02/2012 M7.0 INCH EL PASO CO BROADCAST MEDIA

START TIME NOT AVAILABLE

&&

$$

KMOZLEY

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KPUB [030148]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 030148
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
648 PM MST THU FEB 02 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0645 PM SNOW 4 SW PUEBLO 38.24N 104.67W
02/02/2012 M1.5 INCH PUEBLO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

RMG

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KGJT [030147]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 030147
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
647 PM MST THU FEB 02 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 PM SNOW VALLEY OF THE GODS 37.27N 109.93W
02/02/2012 M3.0 INCH SAN JUAN UT TRAINED SPOTTER

24HR SNOWFALL

&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1200069

$$

DC

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 23

WWUS20 KWNS 030142
SEL3
SPC WW 030142
OKZ000-TXZ000-030900-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 23
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
740 PM CST THU FEB 2 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN OKLAHOMA
NORTHWEST TEXAS AND THE PANHANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 740 PM
UNTIL 300 AM CST.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF CHILDRESS TEXAS TO 45 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF GAGE
OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TONIGHT WITHIN STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WAA
REGIME ATTENDANT TO 40-50+ KT LLJ. WHILE THE AMBIENT AIR MASS IS
NOT OVERLY MOIST...THE COMBINATION OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES...COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MAINLY SEVERE HAIL.

THE POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO MAY INCREASE LATER TONIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF NWRN TX AND SWRN OK WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY MOISTEN
SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT STORMS ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AS
SUCH...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
UPGRADE TO A TORNADO WATCH.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 350. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 23035.

...MEAD

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KPUB [030140]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 030140
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
639 PM MST THU FEB 02 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0638 PM SNOW 5 SSE CRESTONE 37.93N 105.67W
02/02/2012 M1.0 INCH SAGUACHE CO TRAINED SPOTTER

SINCE NOON

&&

$$

KMOZLEY

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KPUB [030136]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 030136
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
636 PM MST THU FEB 02 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0632 PM SNOW 3 E FALCON 38.93N 104.56W
02/02/2012 M4.5 INCH EL PASO CO BROADCAST MEDIA

START TIME NOT AVAILABLE

&&

$$

KMOZLEY

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KPUB [030133]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 030133
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
633 PM MST THU FEB 02 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0629 PM SNOW 2 WSW ROSITA 38.09N 105.36W
02/02/2012 M1.2 INCH CUSTER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

SINCE 1030 AM

&&

$$

KMOZLEY

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KSGX [030118]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSGX 030118
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
518 PM PST THU FEB 02 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0444 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 NE THOUSAND PALMS 33.88N 116.33W
02/01/2012 M54.00 MPH RIVERSIDE CA MESONET

SKY VALLEY MESONET RECORDED A WIND GUST OF 54 MPH AT 444
PM ON 2/1

0450 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 10 NW PALM SPRINGS 33.95N 116.66W
02/01/2012 M55.00 MPH RIVERSIDE CA MESONET

WHITE WATER RAWS RECORDED A WIND GUST OF 55 MPH AT 450 PM
ON 2/1

0443 AM HIGH SUST WINDS 1 SW CRESTLINE 34.24N 117.31W
02/02/2012 M42.00 MPH SAN BERNARDINO CA MESONET

CRESTLINE RIDGE MESONET RECORDED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 42
MPH AT 443 AM AND 40 MPH AT 543 AM.

0344 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 NE THOUSAND PALMS 33.88N 116.33W
02/02/2012 M51.00 MPH RIVERSIDE CA MESONET

SKY VALLEY MESONET RECORDED A WIND GUST OF 51 MPH AT 344
PM.

&&

$$

JMOKER

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0093

ACUS11 KWNS 030108
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030108
OKZ000-TXZ000-030215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0093
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0708 PM CST THU FEB 02 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE TX S PLAINS AND PANHANDLE REGION INTO
ADJACENT WRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 030108Z - 030215Z

CONVECTION SLOWLY EXPANDING/INTENSIFYING ATTM ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE REGION CORRESPONDS WITH INCREASING SEVERE RISK. NEW WW
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

LATEST VAD/PROFILER ANALYSIS SHOWS A SLOW INCREASE IN SLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW FIELD ACROSS W TX/WRN OK ATTM...WITH CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN
WARM ADVECTION SUPPORTING CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM THE
TX PANHANDLE EWD/NEWD INTO SWRN OK/SWRN KS. MARGINAL INSTABILITY
REMAINS EVIDENT -- PER LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSES AND EVENING
RAOBS...WHICH HAS ACTED TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE INTENSITY THUS FAR.
PARTIALLY OFFSETTING THIS HOWEVER IS AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FLOW
FIELD WITH HEIGHT...AS BOUNDARY LAYER SELYS VEER TO SLY AT H85...AND
THEN TO SWLY AT 50-70 KT AT H5.

OVERALL...EXPECT THREAT TO BE PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF HAIL -- WITH
A FEW STRONGER SUPERCELL STORMS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE LIKELY
TO BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL NEAR 1" IN DIAMETER. THREAT FOR
A LOCALLY DAMAGING GUST OR TWO ALSO IS EVIDENT -- PARTICULARLY IF
STORMS CAN GROW UPSCALE LINEARLY...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR --
PARTICULARLY ON SERN FRINGES OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WHERE GREATER
LOW-LEVEL DEWPOINTS ARE OBSERVED.

..GOSS.. 02/03/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 33260157 33890160 34980091 36369984 36669777 35279779
33579917 33260157

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KPUB [030042]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 030042
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
542 PM MST THU FEB 02 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0540 PM SNOW 2 SE FOUNTAIN 38.67N 104.68W
02/02/2012 M3.3 INCH EL PASO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

RMG

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 030033
SWODY1
SPC AC 030031

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0631 PM CST THU FEB 02 2012

VALID 030100Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
AN INITIAL MID-LEVEL SPEED MAXIMUM IS ALREADY NOSING NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE NORTHERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION...WITH
ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...GENERALLY BASED ABOVE A RESIDUAL COOL AND
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. AN AREA OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SHIFTING INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING...BEFORE WEAKENING...AS A LESS
PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY MORE PROMINENT BLOCKING
CONTINUES TO EVOLVE.

HOWEVER...A STRONGER MID-LEVEL SPEED MAXIMUM STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO
ROUND THE BASE OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES UPPER
LOW...AND NOSE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT. AS THIS
OCCURS...MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WEAK SURFACE LOW MAY FORM ACROSS THE
TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND PANHANDLE REGION...BUT A SUBSTANTIVE
STRENGTHENING OF THE SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET IS PROGGED THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN INTO CENTRAL PLAINS. AN ASSOCIATED DEVELOPING FOCUSED AREA
OF LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION PROBABLY WILL PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AS THE
NORTHWARD RETURN OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE CONTINUES THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR PRIMARILY DURING THE
03-06Z TIME FRAME...GENERALLY ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS.

SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION...AND
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A COUPLE OF SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS LATE. WHILE
AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION...
PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS/SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
MOST STORMS APPEAR LIKELY FORM...AND REMAIN BASED...ABOVE AT LEAST A
SHALLOW NEAR SURFACE STABLE LAYER. AS SUCH...SEVERE HAIL SEEMS TO
BE THE PRIMARY THREAT IN STRONGER STORMS...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS.

..KERR.. 02/03/2012

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KMQT [030027]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 030027
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
726 PM EST THU FEB 02 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 PM SNOW 6 ESE ONTONAGON 46.83N 89.21W
02/02/2012 M2.5 INCH ONTONAGON MI CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR TOTAL. SNOW FELL BETWEEN 0000 AND 1200 EST. 0.07
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT.

&&

$$

KLUBER

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0092

ACUS11 KWNS 030009
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030008
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-030415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0092
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0608 PM CST THU FEB 02 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO...SWRN NEB...NWRN KS...SERN WY

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 030008Z - 030415Z

FOR MID/LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE PRIMARY AREA OF
CONCERN FOR ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE INVOF THE FRONT RANGE OF
THE ROCKIES FROM SERN WY INTO NERN CO. ELSEWHERE ACROSS NERN
CO...NWRN KS...SWRN NEB...AND SERN WY...PRECIP COVERAGE/INTENSITY
WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIMITED.

WATER VAPOR LOOP DURING THE PAST 12 HRS REVEALS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
POSITION OF THE MEAN CENTER OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL CYCLONE OVER THE
WRN CONUS...CENTERED OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION. THIS IS A
REFLECTION OF ITS DISASSOCIATION FROM THE NRN STREAM WITHIN A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED FLOW REGIME...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CHARACTER/POSITION
OF THE CYCLONE IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AS
SUCH...THE PRIMARY FORCING FOR ASCENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
CYCLONE WILL EMANATE FROM WAA EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WRN BRANCH OF A
BIFURCATED WARM CONVEYOR BELT WRAPPING AROUND THE CYCLONE. THIS
ASCENT IS SUPPORTING A NWD-LIFTING BROAD ZONE OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW OVER ERN CO AND WRN KS...WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO LIFT
NWD AND MOVE INTO SWRN NEB AFTER 01Z.

FOLLOWING THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY...A WELL-DEFINED DRY SLOT WRAPPING
AROUND THE ERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE AREA
BY LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OUTSIDE OF A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF UPSLOPE-ENHANCED SNOW /WITH RATES AROUND 1 IN PER HR/
AFFECTING THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS FROM
SERN WY SWD TOWARD THE PALMER DIVIDE...DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT
OWING THE TO THE LACK OF DCVA AND THE PRESENCE OF ONLY WEAK
LOW/MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS THE
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF PRECIP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE AREA
MOST SUSCEPTIBLE FOR SNOW AS THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE IS EXPECTED
TO BE CONFINED TO WITHIN 75 MILES ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE
OF THE ROCKIES BY 03Z /OWING TO CAA PROVIDED BY A DEVELOPING BARRIER
JET/...WITH THIS AREA ONLY GRADUALLY EXPANDING EWD THROUGH THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS IN CONCERT WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING.

WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO MODESTLY
TIGHTEN THROUGH THE NIGHT -- ATTRIBUTABLE TO PRESSURE RISES TO THE
NORTH -- MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AOB 25 MPH. WITH THE ABSENCE OF AN EVEN
TIGHTER SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT...THIS SHOULD SERVE TO LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

..COHEN.. 02/03/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 38450366 38610493 39510542 41170547 41690397 41350187
39810133 39130169 38740239 38450366

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KPUB [022359]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 022359
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
459 PM MST THU FEB 02 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0436 PM SNOW 3 W ELLICOTT 38.84N 104.45W
02/02/2012 M2.0 INCH EL PASO CO BROADCAST MEDIA

PEYTON HIGHWAY AND COLORADO 94

0450 PM SNOW RUSH 38.84N 104.10W
02/02/2012 E3.0 INCH EL PASO CO BROADCAST MEDIA

3 TO 4 INCHES SINCE 1200 PM

0450 PM SNOW 1 S CALHAN 39.02N 104.30W
02/02/2012 M5.0 INCH EL PASO CO BROADCAST MEDIA

START TIME NOT AVAILABLE

0451 PM SNOW 2 NNE FALCON 38.96N 104.60W
02/02/2012 M2.5 INCH EL PASO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

SINCE 1340 THIS AFTERNOON

0453 PM SNOW ELLICOTT 38.84N 104.39W
02/02/2012 M2.0 INCH EL PASO CO BROADCAST MEDIA

START TIME NOT AVAILABLE

&&

$$

KMOZLEY

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KGJT [022345]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 022345
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
445 PM MST THU FEB 02 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0443 PM SNOW 6 W PAGOSA SPRINGS 37.27N 107.13W
02/02/2012 M4.0 INCH ARCHULETA CO TRAINED SPOTTER

SINCE 0730 AM

&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1200068

$$

DC

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KMSO [022229]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...updated

NWUS55 KMSO 022229 AAA
LSRMSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
330 PM MST THU FEB 2 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0230 PM AVALANCHE 9 E CRESTON 48.18N 113.94W
02/01/2012 FLATHEAD MT PUBLIC

ONE FATALITY.

&&

$$

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KMEG [022217]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KMEG 022217
LSRMEG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
417 PM CST THU FEB 02 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0439 PM TSTM WND GST TRENTON 34.50N 90.86W
02/01/2012 E75.00 MPH PHILLIPS AR LAW ENFORCEMENT

STATE POLICE REPORTED 70-75 MPH WIND GUSTS ACROSS CENTRAL
PHILLIPS COUNTY.

0439 PM TORNADO 15 SE MARVELL 34.40N 90.73W
02/01/2012 PHILLIPS AR LAW ENFORCEMENT

LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED TORNADO ON THE GROUND.

0444 PM TSTM WND DMG FRIARS POINT 34.37N 90.64W
02/01/2012 COAHOMA MS EMERGENCY MNGR

A SHED WAS DESTROYED. TREES WERE ALSO DOWN.

0500 PM TSTM WND GST 1 N CLARKSDALE 34.21N 90.58W
02/01/2012 E50.00 MPH COAHOMA MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

0500 PM TSTM WND DMG CLARKSDALE 34.20N 90.58W
02/01/2012 COAHOMA MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE DOWN ON RENO STREET.

0505 PM TSTM WND DMG CLARKSDALE 34.20N 90.58W
02/01/2012 COAHOMA MS EMERGENCY MNGR

TREES DOWN IN A MOBILE HOME PARK.

0520 PM TSTM WND DMG DUNDEE 34.52N 90.45W
02/01/2012 TUNICA MS EMERGENCY MNGR

TREES DOWN IN DUNDEE.

0530 PM HAIL BRUNSWICK 35.26N 89.77W
02/01/2012 E0.88 INCH SHELBY TN TRAINED SPOTTER

WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH.

0531 PM HAIL CURTIS STATION 34.33N 90.15W
02/01/2012 E1.00 INCH PANOLA MS EMERGENCY MNGR

0535 PM HAIL 1 S BATESVILLE 34.31N 89.94W
02/01/2012 E1.00 INCH PANOLA MS EMERGENCY MNGR

0544 PM HAIL 1 N COURTLAND 34.26N 89.94W
02/01/2012 E1.00 INCH PANOLA MS EMERGENCY MNGR

0550 PM HAIL OLIVE BRANCH 34.95N 89.83W
02/01/2012 E0.88 INCH DESOTO MS TRAINED SPOTTER

REPORTED NEAR HACKS CROSS ROAD AND US-78

0622 PM TSTM WND DMG TAYLOR 34.27N 89.58W
02/01/2012 LAFAYETTE MS UTILITY COMPANY

POWERLINES DOWN FROM A 6-18 INCH DIAMETER TREE.

0630 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 W OXFORD 34.36N 89.54W
02/01/2012 LAFAYETTE MS UTILITY COMPANY

POWERLINES DOWN FROM LARGE TREE ON COUNTY ROAD 158.

0710 PM TSTM WND DMG CHERRY CREEK 34.35N 88.99W
02/01/2012 PONTOTOC MS EMERGENCY MNGR

SEVERAL TREES DOWN ALONG HIGHWAY 345 FROM 1 MILE SOUTH OF
CHERRY CREEK NORTH TO INCLUDE CHERRY CREEK.

0746 PM TSTM WND DMG N ABERDEEN 33.83N 88.55W
02/01/2012 MONROE MS EMERGENCY MNGR

AWNING OVER THE GAS PUMPS DAMAGED AND BLOWN OFF FROM GAS
STATION ALONG HWY 145 NORTH IN ABERDEEN.

0755 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 S AMORY 33.94N 88.48W
02/01/2012 MONROE MS EMERGENCY MNGR

SEVERAL TREES DOWN ACROSS HIGHWAY 25 SOUTH OF BECKER

0805 PM TSTM WND DMG SW QUINCY 33.92N 88.36W
02/01/2012 MONROE MS EMERGENCY MNGR

POWER LINES DOWN BETWEEN ATHENS AND QUINCY.

0812 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 SE SPLUNGE 33.95N 88.24W
02/01/2012 MONROE MS EMERGENCY MNGR

DAMAGE TO A MOBILE HOME AND DAMAGE TO OUTDOOR STORAGE
BUILDINGS ON SIPSEY-DETROIT ROAD A MILE AND A HALF WEST
OF THE ALABAMA STATE BORDER.

&&

$$

CJC

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0091

ACUS11 KWNS 022144
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022144
OKZ000-TXZ000-022345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0091
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0344 PM CST THU FEB 02 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN PORTIONS OF WRN TX THROUGH TX PANHANDLE AND WRN
OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 022144Z - 022345Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FARTHER SWD OVER PORTIONS OF
THE TX PANHANDLE BY 00-01Z AND EVENTUALLY INTO WRN OK THIS EVENING.
INITIAL PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.
HOWEVER...A WINDOW WILL EXIST DURING THE EARLY EVENING FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES FROM THE SRN TX PANHANDLE INTO NWRN TX AND SWRN OK. AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW BY 23-00Z.

WV AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA SHOW AN UPPER JET STREAK FROM SRN AZ
THROUGH SRN AND ERN NM WITHIN BASE OF TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE CNTRL
AND SRN ROCKIES. MID-UPPER ASCENT WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF THIS
FEATURE AND WITHIN STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT IS PROMOTING
DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM NERN MN INTO THE TX AND OK
PANHANDLES. THIS AREA REMAINS WELL NORTH OF GREATER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS W-CNTRL AND WRN TX...AND AS A RESULT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

LLJ IS STRENGTHENING OVER WRN TX WITHIN UPPER JET EXIT REGION AND IS
CONTRIBUTING TO MOISTURE ADVECTION AND NWD DESTABILIZATION. STORMS
SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSIFY THIS EVENING FROM PORTIONS
OF THE TX PANHANDLE...NWRN TX AND WRN OK AS THE ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES NWD WITH TIME. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WITH
LARGE 0-2 KM HODOGRAPHS WILL SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS...BUT SOME OF
THE ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO LINE/BOWING SEGMENTS. A WINDOW MAY
EXIST FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AS STORMS DEVELOP ON NRN FRINGE OF
GREATER MOISTURE RETURN AND BEFORE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING.
OTHERWISE...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS.

..DIAL.. 02/02/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON 35660102 35940010 35789943 35109895 34409890 33739923
33040014 32580115 32720180 33880201 35030165 35660102

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 022000
SWODY1
SPC AC 021958

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 PM CST THU FEB 02 2012

VALID 022000Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF WESTERN OK AND
WEST TX...

...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE 1630Z OUTLOOK.

LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED A STRIKE OVER THE WRN OK PANHANDLE
ATTENDANT TO FORCING FOR ASCENT AND COOLING MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES
SPREADING INTO THIS AREA WITHIN EXIT REGION OF A 70 KT SWLY MIDLEVEL
JET AS OBSERVED BY TCC WIND PROFILER. ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
REMAINS SOMEWHAT DRY YET INTO THE TX PANHANDLE...SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED CONVECTION HAD DEVELOPED WITH SSEWD EXTENT FROM SERN CO INTO
NERN NM AND THE OK/NRN TX PANHANDLES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...NETWORK OF WIND PROFILERS AND WSR-88D VWPS ACROSS W TX
INDICATED THE SLY LLJ HAS STRENGTHENED TO 30-40 KT SUPPORTING A
CONTINUED RETURN OF MOISTURE. 16Z EXPERIMENTAL WRF-HRRR WAS IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z WRF-NMM SHOWING BEST POTENTIAL FOR GREATER
TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE TX PANHANDLE TO OCCUR AFTER 03/00Z.

GIVEN THE LATER TIME FOR INITIATION...THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT INCLUDING THE TORNADO THREAT WILL TEND TO BE REDUCED AS THE
ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING LIMITS THE ABILITY FOR PARCELS TO REMAIN
SURFACE BASED. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP
PRIOR TO 00Z...THE SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED WITH
THIS OUTLOOK ISSUANCE.

..PETERS.. 02/02/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST THU FEB 02 2012/

...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN STATES...WITH AN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE BASE OF THE LARGER TROUGH OVER
AZ/NM. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
HI PLAINS THIS EVENING AND HELP TO INITIATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ASSUMING MOISTURE CAN RETURN AS INDICATED BY A
CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS...A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FEW CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. MORNING SURFACE
ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS OVER
WEST OK/TX...BUT DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ARE STREAMING NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE TX HILL COUNTRY. GPS-DERIVED PWAT AND IR IMAGERY ALSO SHOW THAT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS RETURNING ABOVE THE SURFACE INTO WESTERN NORTH
TX...AND WILL LIKELY MIX DOWN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS BROKEN CLOUDS
ALLOW SOME HEATING. BY LATE AFTERNOON IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT
DEWPOINTS AROUND 50F WILL EXTEND AS FAR NORTH AS THE RED RIVER.
THAT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MARGINAL SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO FORM BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE
EASTERN TX PANHANDLE AND SPREAD EASTWARD INTO WESTERN OK THROUGH THE
EVENING. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...THERE MAY
BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AROUND DUSK WHERE
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTENING WOULD ALLOW SURFACE-BASED PARCELS TO
REACH THE LFC. THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER
SUNSET AS THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION DEVELOPS. STORMS ARE LIKELY TO
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND SPREAD EASTWARD TOWARD CENTRAL
OK...WITH A CONTINUED BUT LOW THREAT OF HAIL AND WIND.

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KMSO [021859]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KMSO 021859
LSRMSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
910 AM MST THU FEB 2 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0230 PM AVALANCHE 9 E CRESTON 48.18N 113.94W
02/01/2012 FLATHEAD MT PUBLIC

ONE SKIER MISSING.

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KPAH [021816]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KPAH 021816
LSRPAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1216 PM CST THU FEB 02 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1018 PM TORNADO 5 SSW ENFIELD 38.03N 88.37W
01/22/2012 WHITE IL NWS STORM SURVEY

EF2 TORNADO FROM 5 MILES SSW OF ENFILED TO 2.5 MILES NNE
OF CENTERVILLE. STORM SURVEY BY NWS. SEE PNSPAH FOR
DETAILS.

1042 PM TORNADO 3 SSW ALBION 38.34N 88.08W
01/22/2012 EDWARDS IL NWS STORM SURVEY

EF1 TORNADO FROM 3.75 MILES SSW OF ALBION TO 4.8 MILES
ESE OF ALBION. STORM SURVEY BY NWS/PARTNERS. SEE PNSPAH
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION

&&

$$

PATS

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KTSA [021800]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KTSA 021800
LSRTSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1159 AM CST THU FEB 02 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0945 AM HAIL HAYWOOD 34.89N 95.95W
02/01/2012 E1.00 INCH PITTSBURG OK BROADCAST MEDIA

MOSTLY NICKELS AND SMALLER BUT A FEW AS BIG AS A QUARTER.
RELAYED BY KOTV. - CORRECT LOCATION FROM MCALESTER TO
HAYWOOD.

0945 AM HAIL 8 ENE ASHLAND 34.81N 95.94W
02/01/2012 E1.00 INCH PITTSBURG OK BROADCAST MEDIA

DELAYED MEDIA REPORT. - CORRECTED TIME. THIS IS THE SAME
EVENT AS THE HAIL REPORT AT HAYWOOD.

&&

$$

SAA

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 021730
SWODY2
SPC AC 021729

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CST THU FEB 02 2012

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL/SRN OK
AND NRN TX INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AR/FAR NWRN LA...

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE CLOSED LOW FORMING DURING DAY 1 ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S.
ROCKIES INTO THE WRN PART OF THE PLAINS STATES IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
CUTOFF FROM THE NRN STREAM BY THE START OF DAY 2. HEIGHT RISES
ACROSS WRN TO CENTRAL CANADA WILL SUPPORT THE EVOLUTION OF AN OMEGA
BLOCK WEST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
STRONG SPEED MAX MOVING INTO THE BASE OF THE DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW
BY 12Z FRIDAY ARE FORECAST TO EMERGE ENEWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND OK/N TX THIS FORECAST PERIOD...RESULTING IN AN E-W ELONGATION OF
THE MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW.

AT THE SURFACE...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
/INITIALLY LOCATED OVER WRN TX 12Z FRIDAY BETWEEN LBB/MAF/ WILL
TRACK NEWD INTO NWRN TX/SWRN OK BY 04/00Z AND REACH SWRN MO/NWRN AR
BY 12Z SATURDAY. SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
MOISTURE NWD FROM DAY 1 INTO DAY 2...WITH A WARM FRONT BECOMING
REPOSITIONED FROM NRN OK EWD ALONG THE AR/MO BORDER TO THE KY/TN
BORDER BY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT
TRAILING SSWWD FROM THE LOW WILL PROGRESS E/SEWD FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS
MUCH OF OK INTO CENTRAL TX.

...SRN PLAINS TO AR/NWRN LA...
GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW INTO NWRN TX/SWRN OK AREA BY LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THE SUBSEQUENT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS THESE AREAS...THE DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN EXPANDED A
LITTLE WWD. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE SLIGHT RISK HAS REMAINED
UNCHANGED WITH THIS OUTLOOK ISSUANCE.

PER THE DAY 1 DISCUSSION...TSTMS /SOME SEVERE/ SHOULD BE ONGOING
INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL OK AND PARTS OF SRN KS AT 12Z FRIDAY. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD ADVANCE EWD DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
ADDITIONAL DETAILS IN THE FORECAST SUBSECTION BELOW FOR MO/NRN AR TO
THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. MEANWHILE...MODELS SUGGEST THE
STRONGEST DPVA AND SWLY MIDLEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN N OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARIES AND WARM SECTOR DURING DAY 2. HOWEVER...DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT AND CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTENING/WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
SUPPORT SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS.
CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH DAY 1 CONVECTION MAY TEND TO LIMIT
SURFACE HEATING AND THE DEVELOPMENT FOR STRONGER INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...ASCENT ON THE SRN EXTENT OF THE APPROACHING UPSTREAM
TROUGH/SPEED MAX IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER
NRN/WRN OK INTO NWRN TX...WITH ACTIVITY ADVANCING EWD FRIDAY
EVENING/NIGHT ALONG THE COLD FRONT. INCREASING EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
WILL SUPPORT MIXED STORM MODES WITH ALL SEVERE WEATHER THREATS
POSSIBLE.

BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD /04/06-12Z/...PERSISTENT BOUNDARY
LAYER DESTABILIZATION INTO SRN/CENTRAL AR SUGGESTS PARCELS WILL BE
NEAR SURFACE BASED...AND THUS COULD POSE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

...MO/NRN AR/LOWER OH VALLEY REGION...
12Z NAM/GFS AND 00Z ECMWF INDICATED A LEAD WEAK IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE
NEWD INTO SHORTWAVE RIDGING FROM ERN KS/MO/OZARKS TO LOWER OH VALLEY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SOME FORCING FOR ASCENT ALOFT COMBINED WITH
STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA FROM KS/MO INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY WILL
SUPPORT DESTABILIZATION EWD WITH TIME ATOP A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.
MUCAPE GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG ROOTED AROUND 850 MB AND WEAK
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SUGGEST A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL
APPROACHING 1 INCH DIAMETER AS FAR N AS SRN MO/NERN AR. THUS...LOW
SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY /MAINLY FOR A HAIL THREAT/ HAS BEEN
EXTENDED INTO NERN AR/SRN MO.

..PETERS.. 02/02/2012

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KJAN [021724]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KJAN 021724
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1124 AM CST THU FEB 02 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0450 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 NE ROSEDALE 33.86N 91.02W
02/01/2012 BOLIVAR MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

A UTILITY POLE WAS DOWNED ALONG HWY 1 NORTH OF ROSEDALE

0505 PM TSTM WND DMG MOUND BAYOU 33.88N 90.73W
02/01/2012 BOLIVAR MS EMERGENCY MNGR

LARGE TREES DOWN...REPORTED BY BOLIVAR EOC

0516 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 W DREW 33.81N 90.60W
02/01/2012 SUNFLOWER MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

3 HOMES WITH ROOF DMG AND A OUTBUILDING WAS BLOWN AWAY
ALONG DREW-MERIGOLD RD AND JENNINGS RD.

0530 PM HAIL 4 WNW MINTER CITY 33.78N 90.36W
02/01/2012 E0.75 INCH LEFLORE MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

PENNY SIZED HAIL COVERED THE GROUND

0535 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 SW MINTER CITY 33.73N 90.32W
02/01/2012 LEFLORE MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

A FEW POWER LINES AND POWER POLES DOWN BETWEEN MINTER
CITY AND SCHLATER.

0557 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 SE AVALON 33.64N 90.07W
02/01/2012 CARROLL MS EMERGENCY MNGR

TREES DOWNED ALONG MS HIGHWAY 7 NEAR THE GRENADA COUNTY
LINE.

0558 PM TSTM WND DMG HOLCOMB 33.76N 89.98W
02/01/2012 GRENADA MS CO-OP OBSERVER

A FEW TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN AROUND THE HOLCOMB AREA.

0603 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 E GREENWOOD 33.52N 90.14W
02/01/2012 LEFLORE MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

A TREE DOWN ACROSS KAY LANE.

0605 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 NNE JEFFERSON 33.66N 89.87W
02/01/2012 CARROLL MS EMERGENCY MNGR

TREES DOWNED ALONG CR 106 NEAR THE GRENADA COUNTY LINE

0610 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 E JEFFERSON 33.63N 89.85W
02/01/2012 CARROLL MS EMERGENCY MNGR

*** 1 FATAL *** ONE FATALITY OCCURRED WHEN A PINE TREE
FELL ON A ATV/OPERATOR. THIS OCCURRED ALONG CO RD
286...BETWEEN CO RDS 93 AND 95.

0635 PM TSTM WND GST LODI 33.55N 89.52W
02/01/2012 E50.00 MPH MONTGOMERY MS EMERGENCY MNGR

A TREE WAS DOWNED IN THE LODI AREA

0650 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 N BELLEFONTAINE 33.68N 89.31W
02/01/2012 WEBSTER MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

A FEW TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN.

0709 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 SW MANTEE 33.72N 89.07W
02/01/2012 WEBSTER MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

A FEW TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN ACROSS NE WEBSTER CO.

&&

$$

CME

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KJAN [021707]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 021707
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1107 AM CST THU FEB 02 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0558 PM TSTM WND DMG HOLCOMB 33.76N 89.98W
02/01/2012 GRENADA MS CO-OP OBSERVER

A FEW TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN AROUND THE HOLCOMB AREA.

&&

$$

CME

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KMSO [021649]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KMSO 021649
LSRMSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
949 AM MST THU FEB 02 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0943 AM SNOW 3 S EVARO 46.99N 114.09W
02/02/2012 M1.0 INCH MISSOULA MT PUBLIC

&&

$$

JOHNSON

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 021628
SWODY1
SPC AC 021626

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1026 AM CST THU FEB 02 2012

VALID 021630Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF WESTERN OK AND
WEST TX...

...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN STATES...WITH AN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE BASE OF THE LARGER TROUGH OVER
AZ/NM. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
HI PLAINS THIS EVENING AND HELP TO INITIATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ASSUMING MOISTURE CAN RETURN AS INDICATED BY A
CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS...A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FEW CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. MORNING SURFACE
ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS OVER
WEST OK/TX...BUT DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ARE STREAMING NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE TX HILL COUNTRY. GPS-DERIVED PWAT AND IR IMAGERY ALSO SHOW THAT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS RETURNING ABOVE THE SURFACE INTO WESTERN NORTH
TX...AND WILL LIKELY MIX DOWN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS BROKEN CLOUDS
ALLOW SOME HEATING. BY LATE AFTERNOON IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT
DEWPOINTS AROUND 50F WILL EXTEND AS FAR NORTH AS THE RED RIVER.
THAT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MARGINAL SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO FORM BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE
EASTERN TX PANHANDLE AND SPREAD EASTWARD INTO WESTERN OK THROUGH THE
EVENING. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...THERE MAY
BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AROUND DUSK WHERE
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTENING WOULD ALLOW SURFACE-BASED PARCELS TO
REACH THE LFC. THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER
SUNSET AS THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION DEVELOPS. STORMS ARE LIKELY TO
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND SPREAD EASTWARD TOWARD CENTRAL
OK...WITH A CONTINUED BUT LOW THREAT OF HAIL AND WIND.

..HART/LEITMAN.. 02/02/2012

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KMSO [021624]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KMSO 021624
LSRMSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
924 AM MST THU FEB 02 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0820 AM SNOW 4 N WHITEFISH 48.47N 114.34W
02/02/2012 M2.0 INCH FLATHEAD MT PUBLIC

WHITEFISH MTN AREA

0820 AM SNOW ESSEX 48.28N 113.61W
02/02/2012 M3.0 INCH FLATHEAD MT PUBLIC

0820 AM SNOW 25 WSW LOLO 46.62N 114.57W
02/02/2012 M3.0 INCH IDAHO ID PUBLIC

LOLO PASS AREA

0820 AM SNOW POWELL 46.58N 114.72W
02/02/2012 M1.7 INCH IDAHO ID PUBLIC

POWELL RANGER STATION

0858 AM SNOW CONDON 47.53N 113.71W
02/02/2012 E1.0 INCH MISSOULA MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

TRACE TO 1 INCH OF NEW SNOW FROM SEELEY LAKE AREA TO SWAN
VALLEY.

0858 AM SNOW 4 W TAFT 47.42N 115.68W
02/02/2012 M5.0 INCH MINERAL MT PUBLIC

UP TO 5 INCHES LOOKOUT PASS.

&&

$$

GIBSON

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KJAN [021545]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 021545
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
945 AM CST THU FEB 02 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0610 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 E JEFFERSON 33.63N 89.85W
02/01/2012 CARROLL MS EMERGENCY MNGR

*** 1 FATAL *** ONE FATALITY OCCURRED WHEN A PINE TREE
FELL ON A ATV/OPERATOR.

&&

$$

CME

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KMQT [021532]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 021532
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1032 AM EST THU FEB 02 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0930 AM SNOW ONTONAGON 46.87N 89.31W
02/02/2012 E4.5 INCH ONTONAGON MI DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

ESTIMATED 4 TO 5 INCHES BETWEEN WHITE PINE AND BERGLAND.

0930 AM SNOW 5 S SILVER CITY 46.76N 89.58W
02/02/2012 E2.5 INCH ONTONAGON MI TRAINED SPOTTER

ESTIMATED BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES SINCE EARLY MORNING.

&&

$$

MBABICH

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KJAN [021456]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 021456
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
856 AM CST THU FEB 02 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0650 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 N BELLEFONTAINE 33.68N 89.31W
02/01/2012 WEBSTER MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

A FEW TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN.

0709 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 SW MANTEE 33.72N 89.07W
02/01/2012 WEBSTER MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

A FEW TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN ACROSS NE WEBSTER CO.

&&

$$

CME

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KPUB [021438]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 021438
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
738 AM MST THU FEB 02 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 AM SNOW 1 SSE WOLF CREEK PASS 37.47N 106.79W
02/02/2012 M2.0 INCH MINERAL CO PUBLIC

REPORTED BY SKI PATROL IN PAST 24 HOURS.

&&

$$

MN

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KMKX [021345]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMKX 021345
LSRMKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
745 AM CST THU FEB 02 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0710 AM DENSE FOG WAUKESHA 43.01N 88.24W
02/02/2012 WAUKESHA WI TRAINED SPOTTER

VISIBILITIY LESS THAN A QUARTER OF A MILE.

&&

$$

MEB

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KMKX [021306]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMKX 021306
LSRMKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
706 AM CST THU FEB 02 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0650 AM DENSE FOG DOUSMAN 43.01N 88.47W
02/02/2012 WAUKESHA WI NWS EMPLOYEE

VISIBILITIES LESS THAN A QUARTER OF A MILE.

&&

$$

MEB

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 021242
SWODY1
SPC AC 021240

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0640 AM CST THU FEB 02 2012

VALID 021300Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT
FOR NW TX/WRN OK...

...NW TX/ERN TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...
A PRONOUNCED MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD FROM UT/AZ TO
CO/NM AS A MID-UPPER JET STREAK EJECTS ENEWD FROM SRN AZ/SW NM TO
THE TX PANHANDLE BY EARLY TONIGHT. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED
IN THE LEE OF THE NM ROCKIES...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO
DEVELOP SLOWLY NEWD INTO THE NW TX/WRN OK AREA BY TONIGHT. THE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL INDUCE INCREASING SLY/SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW THROUGH
TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL/NW TX AND OK...WHICH WILL TRANSPORT BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE NWD/NWWD. THE MOISTENING WILL OCCUR BENEATH MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF 7-7.5 C/KM...RESULTING IN MODEST MLCAPE VALUES IN THE
RANGE OF 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS W/NW TX BY THIS EVENING...SPREADING
NWD INTO SW OK TONIGHT.

FORECAST WIND PROFILES FROM THE SUITE OF SHORT-RANGE MODELS ALL SHOW
FAVORABLE HODOGRAPH CURVATURE AND DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS...AS EVIDENCED BY 0-1 KM SRH OF 200-400 M2/S2 AND
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AOA 50 KT ALONG THE N EDGE OF THE WARM SECTOR.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS REGARDING THE MAGNITUDE AND
DISTRIBUTION OF BUOYANCY. THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE MOISTURE RETURN AND CONVECTIVE SCHEME INFLUENCES COMPARED
TO THE GFS/ECMWF/RUC...WITH NAM SOUNDINGS MOST SUGGESTIVE OF
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION AND SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL THIS EVENING AND
THROUGH TONIGHT FROM NW TX/SE TX PANHANDLE INTO SW OK. THE 12Z
OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM DRT REVEALED DEWPOINTS ABOUT 5 F HIGHER THAN
FORECAST BY EITHER THE 06Z NAM OR GFS IN THE SURFACE-850 MB
LAYER...THUS THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MOISTURE RETURN IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. THOUGH NOT SUPPORTED BY CLIMATOLOGY...IT APPEARS THAT THE
TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE A LITTLE AFTER DARK AS RICHER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED COMPARED TO THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NW TX.

OTHERWISE...CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP FROM N TO S NEAR THE
CAPROCK IN THE 22-02Z TIME FRAME AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING PHASES WITH
ASCENT ALONG THE DRYLINE. CONVECTION WILL THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE SPREADING NEWD ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE/WRN
OK/SRN KS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
STORM THREATS WITHIN THE CORRIDOR OF BUOYANCY ROOTED NEAR THE
SURFACE...AND ONLY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXPECTED FARTHER N INTO
KS.

..THOMPSON/GARNER.. 02/02/2012

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KMQT [021227]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 021227
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
727 AM EST THU FEB 02 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM SNOW 4 E SILVER CITY 46.84N 89.48W
02/02/2012 M4.0 INCH ONTONAGON MI TRAINED SPOTTER

3.0 HOUR TOTAL. 0.24 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT. SNOW
DEPTH 17 INCHES.

&&

$$

MBABICH

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KGRB [021155]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRB 021155
LSRGRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
555 AM CST THU FEB 02 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0546 AM SNOW LAKE TOMAHAWK 45.81N 89.59W
02/02/2012 M1.0 INCH ONEIDA WI TRAINED SPOTTER

OVERNIGHT SNOWFALL

&&

$$

BERSCH

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 020953
SWOD48
SPC AC 020952

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 AM CST THU FEB 02 2012

VALID 051200Z - 101200Z

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH A WLY FLOW
PATTERN ACROSS THE SRN U.S. AND A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE SERN
STATES. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE EWD THROUGH THE OH AND
TN VALLEYS ON SUNDAY/DAY 4. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IN THE GULF COAST STATES AND
CAROLINAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN
THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY/DAY 5 AS ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY WHICH IS FORECAST BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS.
FOR TUESDAY/DAY 6 AND WEDNESDAY/DAY 7...THE MODELS KEEP LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE LOCKED UP IN THE GULF OF MEXICO REDUCING THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CONUS. ALTHOUGH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND
CAROLINAS EARLY IN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD...THERE IS STILL MUCH
UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE EXACT TIMING OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH FEATURES
AND CAN NOT PINPOINT SPECIFIC AREAS WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL.

..BROYLES.. 02/02/2012

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 020824
SWODY3
SPC AC 020823

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0223 AM CST THU FEB 02 2012

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY/TX COASTAL PLAIN...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS THE MID-MO
VALLEY SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SEWD ACROSS THE OZARKS AND
TX COASTAL PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY BE ONGOING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT
DEVELOPING EARLY IN THE DAY AS SFC TEMPS WARM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOW ABOUT 500 J/KG OF
MLCAPE AND 30 TO 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS WOULD BE A
BORDER-LINE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. WIND DAMAGE COULD BE THE
MORE FAVORED THREAT ESPECIALLY OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND ALONG
THE TX COASTAL PLAINS WHERE CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE SFC-BASED. A
HAIL THREAT WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR AT THE NRN END OF THE MOIST AXIS
IN THE MID-MS VALLEY WHERE TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE COLDER AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE ENHANCED BY THE MID-LEVEL JET.

AT THIS POINT...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING TWO FACTORS.
THE FIRST BEING THE QUALITY OF THE WARM SECTOR. IF INSTABILITY
REMAINS WEAK AS IS SUGGESTED BY MOST MODEL RUNS...THEN THE SEVERE
THREAT WOULD PROBABLY BE MARGINAL. THE SECOND BEING THE TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE THE FASTER SOLUTIONS AND ARE
PREFERRED OVER THE SLOWER NAM. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE DRAWN THE 5
PERCENT PROBABILITY FROM THE TX/OK/AR STATE-LINE EWD TO INCLUDE ALL
OF MS. CONSIDERED ADDING A SLIGHT RISK IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY BUT
THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY KEEP THE THREAT
SOMEWHAT MARGINAL LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES.. 02/02/2012

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 020655
SWODY2
SPC AC 020654

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CST THU FEB 02 2012

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS
AND OZARKS...

...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS/OZARKS...
A WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS ON FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL EXIST ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
WITH A 35 TO 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IN PLACE FRIDAY MORNING FROM CNTRL
TX NWD ACROSS OK INTO SRN KS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET FROM THE
LOW ROLLING PLAINS NWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH A SEVERE THREAT
POSSIBLE ON THE SRN END OF THE STORM COMPLEX IN NW TX. THIS LARGE
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE EWD DURING THE DAY AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE MODELS
EVENTUALLY ORGANIZE AN MCS AND MOVE THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM EWD
ACROSS SE OK...NE TX AND SRN AR DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOW THE BEST ENVIRONMENT FOR
SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE RED RIVER FROM NORTH OF DALLAS EWD TO
TEXARKANA. THIS CORRIDOR IS LOCATED ON THE NRN EDGE OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND IS ON THE SRN EDGE OF MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH A 55 TO 70 KT MID-LEVEL JET. A FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE AND SOMEWHAT STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG
WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 C/KM SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. THE HAIL THREAT
COULD EXTEND NNWWD ACROSS ECNTRL OK INTO SRN KS WHERE THE STORMS
WILL BE INCREASINGLY ELEVATED BUT TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE COLDER IN
PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD BE
MAINLY FROM THE RED RIVER SWD WHERE SFC-BASED STORMS ARE LIKELY AND
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE.

MODEL FORECASTS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM BUT DIFFER ON HOW FAR EAST THE CONVECTIVE
THREAT WILL BE. THE GFS SHOWS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING ACROSS
SRN AR WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF KEEP THE STRONGEST CONVECTION TO THE
WEST. AT THIS POINT...AM LEANING TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH MOVES
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES OUT OF EAST TX FROM FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WOULD PROBABLY ENABLE STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE OZARKS SO
HAVE EXTENDED THE SLIGHT INTO SCNTRL AR. THE MAIN PROBLEM ACROSS NRN
OK AND SRN KS FOR A SEVERE THREAT COULD BE WEAK INSTABILITY FROM
PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE
KEPT THE SLIGHT RISK MAINLY FROM NEAR THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO
EXTENDING SWD FROM THERE.

..BROYLES.. 02/02/2012

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 020545
SWODY1
SPC AC 020543

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1143 PM CST WED FEB 01 2012

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
DOWNSTREAM OF A STRONG MID LATITUDE PACIFIC JET...BLOCKING APPEARS
LIKELY TO BECOME MORE PROMINENT WITHIN THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER PATTERN
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS PERIOD. MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS
WILL INCLUDE THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER HIGH CENTER
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO WESTERN CANADA...AND THE
COINCIDING EVOLUTION OF A CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND ROCKIES.

A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES...NOW DIGGING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE FORMATION OF THE LATTER
FEATURE...WHILE GRADUALLY PROGRESSING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU
AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS...LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...COUPLED WITH NORTHWARD MOISTURE RETURN OFF
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...PROBABLY WILL YIELD SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION FOR INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL STATES LATE TODAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ONE AREA OF
STORMS APPEARS POSSIBLE...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS LATE
AFTERNOON...ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS.
ANOTHER AREA IS EXPECTED IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW...ACROSS
PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WHERE STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND STRONGER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A
FEW SEVERE STORMS.

...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO CENTRAL PLAINS...
AS THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A LESS PROGRESSIVE
REGIME...UNCERTAINTY LINGERS CONCERNING THE SMALLER SCALE
DEVELOPMENTS...INCLUDING THE TIMING OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AND
VARIABILITY EXISTS AMONG THE MODELS THAT IMPACTS THE ASSESSMENT OF
THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. MODELS DO GENERALLY INDICATE THAT
DEEP LAYER FLOW FIELDS AND SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN AS SEASONABLY HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT AIR RETURNS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS...BUT
LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS TO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES IS PROGGED
TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK. FURTHERMORE...STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONIC UPPER JET
AXIS...MAY REMAIN MOSTLY NORTH OF THE WARM SECTOR.

WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DOES NOT APPEAR
OUT OF THE QUESTION BY EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...THE PRIMARY INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL MAY NOT OCCUR
UNTIL THE 03/03-06Z TIME FRAME. THIS IS WHEN A FOCUSED AREA OF
STRENGTHENING LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION COULD SUPPORT AN
EVOLVING CLUSTER OF STORMS FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO
PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. SIZABLE CLOCKWISE-CURVED
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS BENEATH 30-50 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO A RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...IN
ADDITION TO A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL...IN THE PRESENCE OF MOST UNSTABLE
CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE TENDENCY LIKELY
WILL BE FOR ACTIVITY TO BECOME ROOTED ABOVE AT LEAST A SHALLOW NEAR
SURFACE STABLE LAYER...PARTICULARLY AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...WHICH
PROBABLY WILL MINIMIZE THE TORNADIC POTENTIAL.

..KERR/COHEN.. 02/02/2012

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