SWODY1
SPC AC 020543
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1143 PM CST WED FEB 01 2012
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SYNOPSIS...
DOWNSTREAM OF A STRONG MID LATITUDE PACIFIC JET...BLOCKING APPEARS
LIKELY TO BECOME MORE PROMINENT WITHIN THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER PATTERN
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS PERIOD. MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS
WILL INCLUDE THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER HIGH CENTER
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO WESTERN CANADA...AND THE
COINCIDING EVOLUTION OF A CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND ROCKIES.
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES...NOW DIGGING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE FORMATION OF THE LATTER
FEATURE...WHILE GRADUALLY PROGRESSING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU
AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS...LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...COUPLED WITH NORTHWARD MOISTURE RETURN OFF
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...PROBABLY WILL YIELD SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION FOR INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL STATES LATE TODAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ONE AREA OF
STORMS APPEARS POSSIBLE...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS LATE
AFTERNOON...ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS.
ANOTHER AREA IS EXPECTED IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW...ACROSS
PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WHERE STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND STRONGER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A
FEW SEVERE STORMS.
...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO CENTRAL PLAINS...
AS THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A LESS PROGRESSIVE
REGIME...UNCERTAINTY LINGERS CONCERNING THE SMALLER SCALE
DEVELOPMENTS...INCLUDING THE TIMING OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AND
VARIABILITY EXISTS AMONG THE MODELS THAT IMPACTS THE ASSESSMENT OF
THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. MODELS DO GENERALLY INDICATE THAT
DEEP LAYER FLOW FIELDS AND SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN AS SEASONABLY HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT AIR RETURNS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS...BUT
LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS TO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES IS PROGGED
TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK. FURTHERMORE...STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONIC UPPER JET
AXIS...MAY REMAIN MOSTLY NORTH OF THE WARM SECTOR.
WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DOES NOT APPEAR
OUT OF THE QUESTION BY EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...THE PRIMARY INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL MAY NOT OCCUR
UNTIL THE 03/03-06Z TIME FRAME. THIS IS WHEN A FOCUSED AREA OF
STRENGTHENING LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION COULD SUPPORT AN
EVOLVING CLUSTER OF STORMS FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO
PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. SIZABLE CLOCKWISE-CURVED
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS BENEATH 30-50 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO A RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...IN
ADDITION TO A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL...IN THE PRESENCE OF MOST UNSTABLE
CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE TENDENCY LIKELY
WILL BE FOR ACTIVITY TO BECOME ROOTED ABOVE AT LEAST A SHALLOW NEAR
SURFACE STABLE LAYER...PARTICULARLY AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...WHICH
PROBABLY WILL MINIMIZE THE TORNADIC POTENTIAL.
..KERR/COHEN.. 02/02/2012
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