SWODY2
SPC AC 020654
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CST THU FEB 02 2012
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS
AND OZARKS...
...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS/OZARKS...
A WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS ON FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL EXIST ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
WITH A 35 TO 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IN PLACE FRIDAY MORNING FROM CNTRL
TX NWD ACROSS OK INTO SRN KS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET FROM THE
LOW ROLLING PLAINS NWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH A SEVERE THREAT
POSSIBLE ON THE SRN END OF THE STORM COMPLEX IN NW TX. THIS LARGE
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE EWD DURING THE DAY AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE MODELS
EVENTUALLY ORGANIZE AN MCS AND MOVE THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM EWD
ACROSS SE OK...NE TX AND SRN AR DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOW THE BEST ENVIRONMENT FOR
SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE RED RIVER FROM NORTH OF DALLAS EWD TO
TEXARKANA. THIS CORRIDOR IS LOCATED ON THE NRN EDGE OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND IS ON THE SRN EDGE OF MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH A 55 TO 70 KT MID-LEVEL JET. A FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE AND SOMEWHAT STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG
WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 C/KM SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. THE HAIL THREAT
COULD EXTEND NNWWD ACROSS ECNTRL OK INTO SRN KS WHERE THE STORMS
WILL BE INCREASINGLY ELEVATED BUT TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE COLDER IN
PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD BE
MAINLY FROM THE RED RIVER SWD WHERE SFC-BASED STORMS ARE LIKELY AND
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE.
MODEL FORECASTS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM BUT DIFFER ON HOW FAR EAST THE CONVECTIVE
THREAT WILL BE. THE GFS SHOWS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING ACROSS
SRN AR WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF KEEP THE STRONGEST CONVECTION TO THE
WEST. AT THIS POINT...AM LEANING TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH MOVES
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES OUT OF EAST TX FROM FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WOULD PROBABLY ENABLE STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE OZARKS SO
HAVE EXTENDED THE SLIGHT INTO SCNTRL AR. THE MAIN PROBLEM ACROSS NRN
OK AND SRN KS FOR A SEVERE THREAT COULD BE WEAK INSTABILITY FROM
PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE
KEPT THE SLIGHT RISK MAINLY FROM NEAR THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO
EXTENDING SWD FROM THERE.
..BROYLES.. 02/02/2012
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