KSEW [130335]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 130335
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
734 PM PST WED NOV 12 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0734 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 SW NAPAVINE 46.54N 122.96W
11/12/2008 M2.07 INCH LEWIS WA TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL IN WINLOCK.

&&

$$

DDAMICO

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KSEW [130220]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 130220
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
620 PM PST WED NOV 12 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0618 PM HEAVY RAIN S SPANAWAY 47.10N 122.43W
11/12/2008 M2.01 INCH PIERCE WA TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR RAINFALL FROM 6PM YESTERDAY.

0618 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 NNW EATONVILLE 46.93N 122.30W
11/12/2008 M3.78 INCH PIERCE WA TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL

&&

$$

GRUB

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KFWD [130220]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 130220
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
819 PM CST WED NOV 12 2008

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM TSTM WND GST HEWITT 31.45N 97.19W
11/11/2008 M63 MPH MCLENNAN TX BROADCAST MEDIA

MEDIA RELAYED A REPORT THAT A VIEWER MEASURED A 63 MPH
WIND GUST IN THE HEWITT/LORENA AREA.

$$

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KCYS [130215]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 130215
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
714 PM MST WED NOV 12 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 PM NON-TSTM WND GST RAWLINS 41.78N 107.23W
11/12/2008 M46 MPH CARBON WY ASOS

SUST 31MPH

0700 PM NON-TSTM WND GST SINCLAIR 41.78N 107.12W
11/12/2008 M44 MPH CARBON WY UTILITY COMPANY

SUST 32MPH

0700 PM NON-TSTM WND GST MUDDY GAP 42.38N 107.44W
11/12/2008 M54 MPH CARBON WY MESONET

SUST 25MPH CAMP CREEK RAWS

0700 PM NON-TSTM WND GST CHEYENNE 41.15N 104.79W
11/12/2008 M35 MPH LARAMIE WY ASOS

SUST 22MPH

&&

$$

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KRIW [130207]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KRIW 130207
LSRRIW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
710 PM MDT WED NOV 12 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0632 PM SNOW MORAN JUNCTION 8 NNE 43.95N 110.45W
11/12/2008 E2.00 INCHES TETON WY MESONET

BASE CAMP SNOTEL

0632 PM SNOW MAYOWORTH 14 WNW 43.89N 107.06W
11/12/2008 E1.00 INCHES JOHNSON WY MESONET

BEAR TRAP MEADOW SNOTEL

0632 PM SNOW CLARK 21 W 44.94N 109.57W
11/12/2008 E3.00 INCHES PARK WY MESONET

BEARTOOTH LAKE SNOTEL

0633 PM SNOW WAPITI 19 WSW 44.38N 109.79W
11/12/2008 E2.00 INCHES PARK WY MESONET

BLACKWATER SNOTEL

0634 PM SNOW SHELL 14 NE 44.68N 107.58W
11/12/2008 E2.00 INCHES BIG HORN WY MESONET

BONE SPRINGS DIVIDE SNOTEL

0634 PM SNOW DUBOIS 11 N 43.70N 109.67W
11/12/2008 E1.00 INCHES FREMONT WY MESONET

BURROUGHS CREEK SNOTEL

0634 PM SNOW CANYON 1 WSW 44.72N 110.51W
11/12/2008 E2.00 INCHES YELLOWSTONE WY MESONET

CANYON SNOTEL

0635 PM SNOW BUFFALO 17 W 44.40N 107.06W
11/12/2008 E1.00 INCHES JOHNSON WY MESONET

CLOUD PEAK RESERVOIR SNOTEL

0635 PM SNOW CROWHEART 14 W 43.28N 109.45W
11/12/2008 E1.00 INCHES FREMONT WY MESONET

COLD SPRINGS SNOTEL

0636 PM SNOW PAHASKA 14 NE 44.65N 109.78W
11/12/2008 E2.00 INCHES PARK WY MESONET

EVENING STAR SNOTEL

0637 PM SNOW ALTA 6 ENE 43.78N 110.93W
11/12/2008 E4.00 INCHES TETON WY MESONET

GRAND TARGHEE SNOTEL

0637 PM SNOW BONDURANT 10 N 43.34N 110.43W
11/12/2008 E1.00 INCHES TETON WY MESONET

GRANITE CREEK SNOTEL

0637 PM SNOW SOUTH ENTRANCE 8 W 44.13N 110.83W
11/12/2008 E3.00 INCHES TETON WY MESONET

GRASSY LAKE SNOTEL

0637 PM SNOW BONDURANT 20 NE 43.39N 110.13W
11/12/2008 E1.00 INCHES TETON WY MESONET

GROS VENTRE SUMMIT SNOTEL

0638 PM SNOW GUNSIGHT PASS SNOTEL 43.38N 109.88W
11/12/2008 E2.00 INCHES SUBLETTE WY MESONET

GUNSIGHT PASS SNOTEL

0639 PM SNOW KENDALL RANGER STATION SNOTEL43.25N 110.02W
11/12/2008 E1.00 INCHES SUBLETTE WY MESONET

KENDALL RANGER STATION SNOTEL

0639 PM SNOW MEETEETSE 30 SW 43.86N 109.32W
11/12/2008 E1.00 INCHES PARK WY MESONET

KIRWIN SNOTEL

0640 PM SNOW SOUTH ENTRANCE 5 N 44.21N 110.67W
11/12/2008 E2.00 INCHES YELLOWSTONE WY MESONET

LEWIS LAKE DIVIDE SNOTEL

0640 PM SNOW DUBOIS 6 WSW 43.50N 109.75W
11/12/2008 E1.00 INCHES FREMONT WY MESONET

LITTLE WARM SNOTEL

0640 PM SNOW BONDURANT 14 E 43.17N 110.14W
11/12/2008 E1.00 INCHES SUBLETTE WY MESONET

LOOMIS PARK SNOTEL

0640 PM SNOW CODY 18 SW 44.30N 109.24W
11/12/2008 E2.00 INCHES PARK WY MESONET

MARQUETTE SNOTEL

0642 PM SNOW PAHASKA 16 N 44.73N 109.91W
11/12/2008 E3.00 INCHES YELLOWSTONE WY MESONET

PARKER PEAK SNOTEL

0643 PM SNOW JACKSON 8 WNW 43.52N 110.91W
11/12/2008 E3.00 INCHES TETON WY MESONET

PHILLIPS BENCH SNOTEL

0643 PM SNOW BUFFALO 24 SW 44.16N 107.13W
11/12/2008 E3.00 INCHES WASHAKIE WY MESONET

POWDER RIVER PASS SNOTEL

0643 PM SNOW SHELL 18 E 44.50N 107.43W
11/12/2008 E1.00 INCHES BIG HORN WY MESONET

SHELL CREEK SNOTEL

0644 PM SNOW SOUTH ENTRANCE 44.13N 110.67W
11/12/2008 E2.00 INCHES TETON WY MESONET

SNAKE RIVER STATION SNOTEL

0645 PM SNOW LANDER 26 NW 43.03N 109.17W
11/12/2008 E1.00 INCHES FREMONT WY MESONET

ST. LAWRENCE ALT SNOTEL

0646 PM SNOW PAHASKA 10 W 44.48N 110.16W
11/12/2008 E3.00 INCHES YELLOWSTONE WY MESONET

SYLVAN LAKE SNOTEL

0646 PM SNOW PAHASKA 4 WSW 44.48N 110.04W
11/12/2008 E1.00 INCHES YELLOWSTONE WY MESONET

SYLVAN ROAD SNOTEL

0646 PM SNOW OLD FAITHFUL 14 ESE 44.37N 110.58W
11/12/2008 E1.00 INCHES YELLOWSTONE WY MESONET

THUMB DIVIDE SNOTEL

0646 PM SNOW MEETEETSE 18 WSW 44.03N 109.18W
11/12/2008 E1.00 INCHES PARK WY MESONET

TIMBER CREEK SNOTEL

0647 PM SNOW DUBOIS 25 NW 43.75N 110.06W
11/12/2008 E3.00 INCHES TETON WY MESONET

TOGWOTEE PASS SNOTEL

0647 PM SNOW MORAN JUNCTION 25 NE 44.15N 110.22W
11/12/2008 E2.00 INCHES YELLOWSTONE WY MESONET

TWO OCEAN PLATEAU SNOTEL

0648 PM SNOW CLARK 26 WSW 44.80N 109.66W
11/12/2008 E2.00 INCHES PARK WY MESONET

WOLVERINE SNOTEL

0648 PM SNOW CODY 56 SW 43.93N 109.82W
11/12/2008 E1.00 INCHES PARK WY MESONET

YOUNTS PEAK SNOTEL

0651 PM SNOW JACKSON HOLE MOUNTAIN RESORT-RAYMER43.60N 110.85W
11/12/2008 M2.00 INCHES TETON WY BTAVALANCHE

0651 PM SNOW JACKSON HOLE MOUNTAIN RESORT-MID43.59N 110.84W
11/12/2008 M2.00 INCHES TETON WY BTAVALANCHE

&&

$$

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KSEW [130139]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 130139
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
539 PM PST WED NOV 12 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0538 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 S LACEY 46.96N 122.81W
11/12/2008 M2.24 INCH THURSTON WA TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR PRECIPITATION FROM 5PM YESTERDAY.

&&

$$

GRUB

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KSEW [130129]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 130129
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
529 PM PST WED NOV 12 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0529 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 WNW RANDLE 46.54N 121.99W
11/12/2008 M4.25 INCH LEWIS WA TRAINED SPOTTER

FELL SINCE NOON ON TUESDAY.

&&

$$

GRUB

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 130059
SWODY1
SPC AC 130056

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 PM CST WED NOV 12 2008

VALID 130100Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...S TX...
MID-LVL WAVE OVER NRN MEXICO WAS BEGINNING TO TURN ENE AND WILL MOVE
ACROSS FAR S TX OVERNIGHT. PRIMARY BAND OF TSTMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
WELL OFFSHORE INVOF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/LOW WHERE STRONGER
INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION WITH
EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE OVER NERN MEXICO AND ADJACENT
PARTS OF FAR S TX WITH THE APPROACH OF THE IMPULSE LATER THIS
EVENING. LINGERING INSTABILITY COULD STILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR
ISOLD LARGE HAIL AND/OR DMGG WINDS GIVEN THE FAVORABLE BUOYANCY AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR NOTED ON THE BRO 00Z SOUNDING.

...TN VLY AND SE ATLC CSTL AREA...
LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MID-SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE NE
INTO THE OH VLY TONIGHT. CONVECTION WAS INCREASING JUST DOWNSTREAM
OF THIS IMPULSE OVER THE TN VLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH MODEST DCVA AND
WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY. ISOLD LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE
DOWNSTREAM INTO MIDDLE/ERN TN...THE COALFIELDS OF KY/VA AND PARTS OF
UPSTATE SC/NC LATER TONIGHT.

MEANWHILE...INFLUX OF SE ATLC LOW-LVL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN
SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR ISOLD TSTMS LATE IN THE PD ALONG THE
CSTL FRONT AS IT RETREATS TOWARD THE CAROLINAS.

..RACY.. 11/13/2008

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KSEW [130036]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 130036
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
436 PM PST WED NOV 12 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0436 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 ESE MONTESANO 46.98N 123.50W
11/12/2008 M4.97 INCH GRAYS HARBOR WA TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL AS OF 4PM.

&&

$$

GRUB

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KTFX [130035]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 130035
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
534 PM MST WED NOV 12 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0959 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 ENE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.45N 113.19W
11/12/2008 M78.00 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

WINDS FROM WSW SUSTAINED AT 58 MILES AN HOUR

1101 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 ENE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.45N 113.19W
11/12/2008 M60.00 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

WINDS FROM SOUTHWEST...SUSTAINED AT 52 MILES AN HOUR

0100 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 20 SSE CASCADE 47.00N 111.54W
11/12/2008 CASCADE MT CO-OP OBSERVER

TREE LIMBS 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER DOWN

0100 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 14 W BYNUM 47.98N 112.61W
11/12/2008 M59.00 MPH TETON MT MESONET

WIND FROM WEST...SUSTAINED AT 26 MILES AN HOUR

0323 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 ESE MARYSVILLE 46.72N 112.18W
11/12/2008 M58.00 MPH LEWIS AND CLARK MT TRAINED SPOTTER

WIND FROM SOUTHWEST...SUSTAINED AROUND 40-45 MILES AN
HOUR

&&

$$

MCGINNIS

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KTFX [122331]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 122331
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
431 PM MST WED NOV 12 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0610 AM NON-TSTM WND GST BABB 48.86N 113.44W
11/12/2008 M68 MPH GLACIER MT CO-OP OBSERVER

0915 AM NON-TSTM WND GST BABB 48.86N 113.44W
11/12/2008 M94 MPH GLACIER MT CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

$$

WILLIAMSON DC

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KSEW [122231]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 122231
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
231 PM PST WED NOV 12 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0228 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 NE BLACK DIAMOND 47.35N 121.93W
11/12/2008 M2.35 INCH KING WA TRAINED SPOTTER

2.35 INCHES IN 14 HOURS FROM MIDNIGHT TO 220 PM.

0228 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 SE FREDERICKSON 47.03N 122.29W
11/12/2008 M2.00 INCH PIERCE WA TRAINED SPOTTER

2.00 INCHES RAIN IN 24 HOURS FROM NOON TUESDAY UNTIL NOON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

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KCYS [122219]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 122219
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
319 PM MST WED NOV 12 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 PM NON-TSTM WND GST ARLINGTON 41.59N 106.21W
11/12/2008 M59 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SUST WIND 43MPH

0300 PM NON-TSTM WND GST VEDAUWOO 41.15N 105.40W
11/12/2008 M45 MPH ALBANY WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SUST 29MPH

0300 PM NON-TSTM WND GST PUMPKIN VINE 41.05N 105.46W
11/12/2008 M47 MPH ALBANY WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SUST 32MPH

0300 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 27 WSW WHEATLAND 41.90N 105.44W
11/12/2008 M42 MPH ALBANY WY MESONET

DODGE CREEK SUST 24MPH

0300 PM NON-TSTM WND GST BORDEAUX 41.95N 104.95W
11/12/2008 M48 MPH PLATTE WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SUST 34MPH

&&

$$

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KSEW [122101]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 122101
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
101 PM PST WED NOV 12 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 ENE VAIL 46.86N 122.58W
11/12/2008 M3.79 INCH THURSTON WA TRAINED SPOTTER

RAINFALL IN 18 HOURS.

&&

$$

GRUB

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KMPX [122003]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KMPX 122003
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
203 PM CST WED NOV 12 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 AM SNOW FRIDLEY 45.08N 93.26W
11/12/2008 M1.2 INCH ANOKA MN MESONET

0700 AM SNOW 2 S BRUCE 45.43N 91.27W
11/12/2008 M1.3 INCH RUSK WI TRAINED SPOTTER

0700 AM SNOW ANDOVER 45.26N 93.33W
11/12/2008 M1.0 INCH ANOKA MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0725 AM SNOW RED WING 44.58N 92.60W
11/12/2008 M1.3 INCH GOODHUE MN MESONET

0732 AM SNOW PLUM CITY 44.63N 92.19W
11/12/2008 M0.0 INCH PIERCE WI MESONET

0735 AM SNOW OLIVIA 44.78N 95.00W
11/12/2008 M1.0 INCH RENVILLE MN MESONET

0736 AM SNOW ST PAUL 44.95N 93.10W
11/12/2008 M1.5 INCH RAMSEY MN MESONET

COMO PARK

0739 AM SNOW CAMERON 45.40N 91.74W
11/12/2008 M1.0 INCH BARRON WI MESONET

0822 AM SNOW 15 N BRUCE 45.68N 91.27W
11/12/2008 M1.0 INCH SAWYER WI MESONET

EXELAND

0822 AM SNOW CLAYTON 45.32N 92.17W
11/12/2008 M1.0 INCH POLK WI MESONET

0942 AM SNOW WOODBURY 44.91N 92.92W
11/12/2008 M0.9 INCH WASHINGTON MN TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

TDK

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 122000
SWODY1
SPC AC 121957

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0157 PM CST WED NOV 12 2008

VALID 122000Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SUBSTANTIVE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC IS NOW UNDERWAY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
BUT...THIS IS OCCURRING FASTER THAN THE RETREAT OF THE LARGE COLD
SURFACE RIDGE NEAR THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. AS A RESULT...NORTHEAST
OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THE MOISTURE IS GENERALLY BEING
LIFTED ABOVE A RESIDUAL STABLE SURFACE-BASED LAYER.
MEANWHILE...CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING
OVERNIGHT STORMS HAS STABILIZED MUCH OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. AND...BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION IS GENERALLY CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF A DEVELOPING
SURFACE FRONT...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH
NORTHERN FLORIDA...INTO AREAS OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST.

...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH ATLANTIC SEABOARD...
IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL CAP THE UNSTABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. EVEN TO THE NORTH OF
THE FRONT...A RELATIVELY WARM MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK LAPSE
RATES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MINIMIZE CAPE...RESULTING IN LOW
AND UNCERTAIN THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE FINALLY RETREATS EAST OF THE ATLANTIC
COAST...AND AN UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE IMPULSE CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT OF
THE BASE OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH...A
LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IS PROGGED TO TIGHTEN TO THE LEE OF THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MOISTURE RETURN AND STEEPENING ISENTROPIC
ASCENT NEAR THIS FEATURE BY LATE TONIGHT SEEMS TO OFFER THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...ENHANCED
LIFT ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
MAY SUPPORT SLIGHTLY HIGHER THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES THAN
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS.

...DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...
IN THE WAKE OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE IMPULSE LIFTING TOWARD
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL HAS DIMINISHED ...WITH
THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FORCING NEAR A PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE BAND
NOW OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT YET ENTIRELY CLEAR THAT
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL NOT OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AS THE NEXT
IMPULSE BEGINS TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION. IF THIS OCCURS...IT
WILL LIKELY BE POST-FRONTAL...BUT ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...PERHAPS STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR VIGOROUS NEW
STORM DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT SEEMS TO BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW TO THE WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AND IN THE
OFFSHORE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.

..KERR.. 11/12/2008

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KMPX [122000]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 122000
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
200 PM CST WED NOV 12 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM SNOW 2 S BRUCE 45.43N 91.27W
11/12/2008 M1.3 INCH RUSK WI TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

TDK

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KCYS [121836]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 121836
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1136 AM MST WED NOV 12 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0905 AM HIGH SUST WINDS ARLINGTON 41.59N 106.21W
11/12/2008 M41.00 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

0920 AM HIGH SUST WINDS ARLINGTON 41.59N 106.21W
11/12/2008 M42.00 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

0930 AM HIGH SUST WINDS ARLINGTON 41.59N 106.21W
11/12/2008 M42.00 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

WIND SPEEDS SUSTAINED 40-44 MPH 0930-0950 MST.

1005 AM HIGH SUST WINDS ARLINGTON 41.59N 106.21W
11/12/2008 M43.00 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

1025 AM HIGH SUST WINDS ARLINGTON 41.59N 106.21W
11/12/2008 M41.00 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 40-41 MPH 1025-1030 AND AGAIN
FROM 1045-1050 MST.

1105 AM HIGH SUST WINDS ARLINGTON 41.59N 106.21W
11/12/2008 M41.00 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

&&

$$

HUTCHEON

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KSEW [121836]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 121836
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1036 AM PST WED NOV 12 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1034 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 ESE NORTH BEND 47.47N 121.74W
11/12/2008 E3.50 INCH KING WA TRAINED SPOTTER

3.5+ INCHES IN 24 HOURS FROM 9 AM TUESDAY THROUGH 9 AM
WEDNESDAY. RAIN GAUGE HAD A CRACK AT THE 3.5 INCH MARK SO
THE TOTAL AMOUNT IS PROBABLY GREATER THAN 3.5 INCHES.

&&

$$

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KSEW [121802]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 121802
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1002 AM PST WED NOV 12 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1002 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 NNW EATONVILLE 46.93N 122.30W
11/12/2008 M2.61 INCH PIERCE WA TRAINED SPOTTER

SINCE 12 AM.

&&

$$

GRUB

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KMFR [121802]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 121802
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1002 AM PST WED NOV 12 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1002 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 NNW BROOKINGS 42.12N 124.32W
11/12/2008 M3.12 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING 8 AM PST

&&

$$

SPILDE

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KLCH [121751]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 121751
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1150 AM CST WED NOV 12 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0230 AM LIGHTNING SOUR LAKE 30.14N 94.40W
11/12/2008 HARDIN TX NEWSPAPER

LIGHTNING STRUCK A CHURCH EDUCATION BUILDING IN SOUR LAKE
AND THE RESULTING FIRE DESTROYED THE BUILDING. REPORTED
BY BEAUMONT ENTERPRISE.

&&

$$

SHAMBURGER

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KSEW [121732]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 121732
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
932 AM PST WED NOV 12 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0932 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 E BUCODA 46.80N 122.82W
11/12/2008 M2.00 INCH THURSTON WA TRAINED SPOTTER

SINCE 12 AM.

&&

$$

GRUB

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 121718
SWODY2
SPC AC 121715

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 AM CST WED NOV 12 2008

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFICATION WITHIN A STRONG BELT OF POLAR WESTERLIES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC IS UNDERWAY...AND MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS WILL
TRANSLATE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE U.S. DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A
JET STREAK EMANATING FROM THE PACIFIC IS PROGGED TO CONTRIBUTE TO A
LARGE...DIGGING UPPER TROUGH TO THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN/NORTHERN
U.S. ROCKIES...AND STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE LEE OF THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES...THROUGH THE CENTRAL INTERNATIONAL BORDER
AREA...INTO ONTARIO BY 12Z FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...THE LAST COUPLE
IN A SERIES OF SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT
OUT OF A LINGERING BROADER SCALE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
STATES. HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE DISCREPANCIES EXIST AMONG THE MODEL
DATA CONCERNING THE MANNER IN WHICH THIS OCCURS...PARTICULARLY WITH
THE SECOND IMPULSE NOW STILL DIGGING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE TEXAS
BIG BEND REGION.

...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO MID/SOUTH ATLANTIC SEABOARD...
THE INITIAL SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE APPEARS LIKELY TO BE IN THE
PROCESS OF LIFTING THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z THURSDAY...
BEFORE CONTINUING TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MID
ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS AND NEW ENGLAND LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITHIN A BROAD
FRONTAL ZONE...DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF A RETREATING COLD SURFACE
RIDGE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INLAND OF
EASTERN GULF AND SOUTHERN/MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.
HOWEVER...WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD MINIMIZE THE STRENGTH OF
THE UPDRAFTS...MOSTLY ROOTED ABOVE THE FRONTAL INVERSION LAYER.

TO VARYING DEGREES...GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE UPPER IMPULSE WILL
SUPPORT WEAK FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THIS
PROBABLY WILL OCCUR INLAND...ACCOMPANIED BY AN INFLUX OF BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE AND DESTABILIZATION IN THE PRESENCE OF SUFFICIENT
DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...WITH THE STRENGTH OF MID/UPPER FORCING FOR
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR STILL UNCLEAR...THE
RELATIVELY WARM MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT COULD ULTIMATELY SUPPRESS
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

...WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...
IT NOW SEEMS MOST PROBABLE THAT THE PRIMARY TRAILING SOUTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE WILL BE SLOWER TO LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE MEXICAN
PLATEAU/LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY REGION...MUCH AS HAS BEEN INDICATED
BY THE SREF/NAM AND MREF/GFS. AND...THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED TO
PARTS OF THE WESTERN/NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

..KERR.. 11/12/2008

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KSEW [121641]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 121641
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
841 AM PST WED NOV 12 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0815 AM HEAVY RAIN 12 E SHELTON 47.21N 122.85W
11/12/2008 M2.06 INCH MASON WA TRAINED SPOTTER

2.06 INCHES OF RAIN IN PAST 24 HOURS.

&&

$$

HANER

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 121629
SWODY1
SPC AC 121626

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1026 AM CST WED NOV 12 2008

VALID 121630Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...LOWER TX COAST THROUGH TONIGHT...
ONE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS NOW MOVING EWD/NEWD OVER CENTRAL TX...AND
THIS WAVE IS PRECEDED BY A BAND OF RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER
MS VALLEY INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. THE PRIMARY WARM SECTOR IS
LIMITED TO A SMALL PART OF SE LA THAT WILL SOON BE OVERTURNED BY
ONGOING CONVECTION...AND S TX IN ADVANCE OF A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A TENDENCY FOR
VEERING FLOW AND DRYING ACROSS INTERIOR S TX...WHILE THE 70 F
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED TODAY ONLY ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST FROM NEAR/S OF CRP TO BRO. DESPITE ONLY MODEST
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION /PER 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM CRP AND
BRO/...LOW-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE WEAK TODAY AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INLAND IS IN QUESTION. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO
DEVELOP ALONG THE CONFLUENCE BANDS AND/OR PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
TODAY...INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...AS WELL AS STRONG DOWNDRAFTS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS.

LATER TONIGHT...ANOTHER UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NW MEXICO
WILL APPROACH S TX AND MAINTAIN AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LINGERING INSTABILITY
OVERNIGHT COULD STILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS...GIVEN MUCAPE OF AT LEAST 1500 J/KG AND 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KT.

...SE ATLANTIC AREA TONIGHT...
AS THE CENTRAL TX SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS NEWD...LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL
BECOME FOCUSED E OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. AN INFLUX OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SE ATLANTIC MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE PERIOD ALONG
THE COASTAL FRONT AS IT RETREATS INLAND.

..THOMPSON.. 11/12/2008

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KSEW [121629]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 121629
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
829 AM PST WED NOV 12 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0828 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 NNW GRAND MOUND 46.88N 123.04W
11/12/2008 M2.84 INCH THURSTON WA TRAINED SPOTTER

2.84 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE 8 AM TUESDAY

&&

$$

HANER

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KSEW [121628]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 121628
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
828 AM PST WED NOV 12 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0805 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 SE MONTESANO 46.98N 123.55W
11/12/2008 M5.70 INCH GRAYS HARBOR WA TRAINED SPOTTER

IN 12 HOURS AT 8AM.

&&

$$

GRUB

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KMPX [121543]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 121543
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
942 AM CST WED NOV 12 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0942 AM SNOW WOODBURY 44.91N 92.92W
11/12/2008 M0.9 INCH WASHINGTON MN TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

MTF

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KSEW [121537]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 121537
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
737 AM PST WED NOV 12 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0736 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 WNW RANDLE 46.54N 121.99W
11/12/2008 M2.25 INCH LEWIS WA TRAINED SPOTTER

2.25 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE NOON ON TUESDAY

&&

$$

HANER

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KSEW [121510]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 121510
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
710 AM PST WED NOV 12 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0709 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 NE BLACK DIAMOND 47.35N 121.93W
11/12/2008 M1.75 INCH KING WA TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

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KDLH [121459]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 121459
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
859 AM CST WED NOV 12 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 AM SNOW DULUTH 46.78N 92.12W
11/12/2008 M0.4 INCH ST. LOUIS MN OFFICIAL NWS OBS

AT THE DULUTH NWS OFFICE. 0.06 LIQUID EQUIVALENT.

0800 AM SNOW 12 N ISLE 46.32N 93.46W
11/12/2008 M0.3 INCH AITKIN MN CO-OP OBSERVER

0800 AM SNOW 4 S BRUNO 46.22N 92.67W
11/12/2008 M0.5 INCH PINE MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0800 AM SNOW MOOSE LAKE 46.45N 92.77W
11/12/2008 M0.5 INCH CARLTON MN CO-OP OBSERVER

0800 AM SNOW WRENSHALL 46.62N 92.38W
11/12/2008 M0.5 INCH CARLTON MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0800 AM SNOW 4 N WEBSTER 45.94N 92.36W
11/12/2008 M1.0 INCH BURNETT WI TRAINED SPOTTER

OAKLAND

0800 AM SNOW SARONA 45.71N 91.81W
11/12/2008 M1.3 INCH WASHBURN WI CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

$$

DONOFRIO

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KMPX [121446]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KMPX 121446
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
846 AM CST WED NOV 12 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 AM SNOW FRIDLEY 45.08N 93.26W
11/12/2008 M1.2 INCH ANOKA MN MESONET

0700 AM SNOW ANDOVER 45.26N 93.33W
11/12/2008 M1.0 INCH ANOKA MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0725 AM SNOW RED WING 44.58N 92.60W
11/12/2008 M1.3 INCH GOODHUE MN MESONET

0732 AM SNOW PLUM CITY 44.63N 92.19W
11/12/2008 M0.0 INCH PIERCE WI MESONET

0735 AM SNOW OLIVIA 44.78N 95.00W
11/12/2008 M1.0 INCH RENVILLE MN MESONET

0736 AM SNOW ST PAUL 44.95N 93.10W
11/12/2008 M1.5 INCH RAMSEY MN MESONET

COMO PARK

0739 AM SNOW CAMERON 45.40N 91.74W
11/12/2008 M1.0 INCH BARRON WI MESONET

0822 AM SNOW CLAYTON 45.32N 92.17W
11/12/2008 M1.0 INCH POLK WI MESONET

0822 AM SNOW 15 N BRUCE 45.68N 91.27W
11/12/2008 M1.0 INCH SAWYER WI MESONET

EXELAND

&&

$$

CARLYON

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KSEW [121428]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 121428
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
628 AM PST WED NOV 12 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0430 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 NE GATE 46.85N 123.11W
11/12/2008 M2.00 INCH THURSTON WA TRAINED SPOTTER

TWO INCHES FELL IN THE 24-HR PERIOD ENDING AT 0430.

0600 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 ESE MONTESANO 46.98N 123.50W
11/12/2008 M3.60 INCH GRAYS HARBOR WA TRAINED SPOTTER

RAINFALL TOTAL BETWEEN 4 PM TUESDAY AND 6 AM THIS
MORNING.

&&

$$

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KMPX [121423]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 121423
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
822 AM CST WED NOV 12 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0822 AM SNOW 15 N BRUCE 45.68N 91.27W
11/12/2008 M1.0 INCH SAWYER WI MESONET

EXELAND

&&

$$

CARLYON

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KGRB [121420]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRB 121420
LSRGRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
819 AM CST WED NOV 12 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0818 AM SNOW LAKE TOMAHAWK 45.81N 89.59W
11/12/2008 M0.5 INCH ONEIDA WI TRAINED SPOTTER

CURRENT CONDITIONS - MODERATE SNOW AND 31 DEGREES.

&&

$$

MG

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KEWX [121350]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 121350
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
750 AM CST WED NOV 12 2008

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0505 PM HAIL 2 NNW MANOR 30.37N 97.57W
11/11/2008 E0.75 INCH TRAVIS TX AIRPLANE PILOT

0.5 TO 0.75 INCH HAIL REPORTED BY THE AIRPORT MANAGER
AT BIRDS NEST AIRPORT FOR ABOUT 5 MINUTES.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX0800236

$$

JDS

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KMPX [121350]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 121350
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
750 AM CST WED NOV 12 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 AM SNOW FRIDLEY 45.08N 93.26W
11/12/2008 M1.2 INCH ANOKA MN MESONET

&&

$$

CARLYON

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KMPX [121340]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 121340
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
740 AM CST WED NOV 12 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0732 AM SNOW PLUM CITY 44.63N 92.19W
11/12/2008 M0.0 INCH PIERCE WI MESONET

0735 AM SNOW OLIVIA 44.78N 95.00W
11/12/2008 M1.0 INCH RENVILLE MN MESONET

0736 AM SNOW ST PAUL 44.95N 93.10W
11/12/2008 M1.5 INCH RAMSEY MN MESONET

COMO PARK

0739 AM SNOW CAMERON 45.40N 91.74W
11/12/2008 M1.0 INCH BARRON WI MESONET

&&

$$

CARLYON

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KMPX [121325]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 121325
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
725 AM CST WED NOV 12 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM SNOW ANDOVER 45.26N 93.33W
11/12/2008 M1.0 INCH ANOKA MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0725 AM SNOW RED WING 44.58N 92.60W
11/12/2008 M1.3 INCH GOODHUE MN MESONET

&&

$$

CARLYON

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 121249
SWODY1
SPC AC 121246

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0646 AM CST WED NOV 12 2008

VALID 121300Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...TX/LA COAST...
LINEAR MCS EVOLVED EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND HAS PUSHED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE SURFACE COLD FRONT OFF THE UPPER TX COAST AT
DAYBREAK. NRN PORTION OF THIS LINE HAS MAINTAINED ORGANIZATION
OVERNIGHT OVER SRN LA...BUT CONTINUES TO INGEST AND/OR OVERRIDE
STABLE SURFACE AIR NORTH OF COASTAL WARM FRONT HOLDING JUST
OFFSHORE. WITH H85 JET LIFTING NEWD ACROSS LA THROUGH THE EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON...ELEVATED ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST EWD ACROSS THE LOWER
MS RIVER VALLEY BEFORE WEAKENING LATER IN THE DAY AS LLJ LIFTS INTO
THE TN RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...12Z SIL SOUNDING INDICATES VERY
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION AHEAD OF ONGOING LINE.
THIS SUGGEST SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
MORNING.

FARTHER SW...SURFACE OUTFLOW/COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE SAGGING
SWD INTO SRN TX TODAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT RICH GULF MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN TIP OF TX WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
NEAR 70F IN THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WEAK CONVERGENCE AND LACK
OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT MAY LIMITED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
DESPITE MODERATE MLCAPE...BUT SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR
CONDITIONAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANY DIURNAL
DEVELOPMENT. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS WRN TX AS ANOTHER
SPEED MAX DIGS SEWD LATER TONIGHT...WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT
INCREASING ACROSS SRN TX THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY SUPPORT A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN
THE PERIOD.

..EVANS/SMITH.. 11/12/2008

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 120849
SWOD48
SPC AC 120848

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0248 AM CST WED NOV 12 2008

VALID 151200Z - 201200Z

...DISCUSSION...

DAY 4...

SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY LINGER EARLY SATURDAY OVER ERN
NC WHERE STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS MAY PERSIST IN SMALL WARM
SECTOR BEFORE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN
WHETHER INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A MORE ROBUST
SEVERE THREAT.

SEVERE THREAT IN FL ALONG SWD ADVANCING FRONT WILL PROBABLY BE
LIMITED DUE TO AN EXPECTED MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND
LIKELIHOOD THAT STRONGER DEEP FORCING AND SHEAR ATTENDING THE
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN POST FRONTAL.

DAY 5-8...

UPPER TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL BE REINFORCED ALONG WITH A SECONDARY
SURGE OF CP HIGH PRESSURE BY DAY 6. THIS WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY
OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE GULF WITH STABLE CONDITIONS INLAND.

..DIAL.. 11/12/2008

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2374

ACUS11 KWNS 120846
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120846
LAZ000-121015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2374
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0246 AM CST WED NOV 12 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 120846Z - 121015Z

AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE EWD ACROSS PARTS
OF SCNTRL LA LATE TONIGHT. A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO EXIST.
HOWEVER...THESE THREATS SHOULD REMAIN TOO MINIMAL TO WARRANT THE
ISSUANCE OF A WW.

08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NEWD ALONG THE TX
COAST INTO SW LA WHERE DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER
70S F. A PSEUDO WARM FRONT EXISTS SEWD ALONG THE COAST OF SRN LA
WITH THE BOWING LINE SEGMENT FROM ABOUT 50 TO 100 MILES NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY SHOW A
SLIGHT CAPPING INVERSION PRESENT WHICH IS CONFIRMED BY RUC ANALYSIS
SUGGESTING THE BOWING LINE SEGMENT IS ELEVATED IN NATURE. THIS
SHOULD LIMIT DOWNDRAFT STRENGTH ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE GUST
FRONT ESPECIALLY WITH THE PORTION OF THE LINE ENTERING WCNTRL LA AND
FAR SE TX. HOWEVER...NEAR THE APEX OF THE BOW IN PARTS OF SW LA...A
FORWARD SPEED OF 30 TO 35 KT COULD BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AS THE LINE ADVANCES EWD ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE-10 CORRIDOR OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS.

..BROYLES.. 11/12/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON 30059369 30349342 30709332 30919340 30929213 30899173
30699126 30479100 30139099 29909119 29789154 29759229
29809287 30059369

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 120828
SWODY3
SPC AC 120826

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 AM CST WED NOV 12 2008

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION THIS
PERIOD WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE WEST AND A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH
HANDLING THE SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN GULF. THIS
FEATURE WILL LIKELY DEAMPLIFY AS IT EJECTS NE TOWARD THE NERN GULF
AND BECOME ABSORBED BY THE BROADER SCALE UPPER TROUGH. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AMPLIFIES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL
U.S. IN WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL ADVANCE TO THE
CAROLINAS SWWD INTO THE FL PANHANDLE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...NERN GULF COASTAL AREA THROUGH THE ERN CAROLINAS...

A SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE
PERIOD FROM SERN GA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT
FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH. MOIST AXIS WITH 60S F
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT NEWD THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR
BUT INLAND EXTENT OF THE RICHER MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED BY A
RESIDUAL WEDGE OF COOLER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. AREAS OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY FRIDAY FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST
NEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN WEAKLY
CAPPED WARM SECTOR DURING THE PERIOD. INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN
MARGINAL OWING TO WEAK LAPSE RATES...CLOUDS AND LIKELIHOOD OF
ONGOING PRECIPITATION...AND THIS MAY SERVE AS THE PRIMARY LIMITING
FACTOR. NEVERTHELESS...HODOGRAPHS ALONG THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS AND
STRONG BULK SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR STORMS TO
DEVELOP SUPERCELL AND BOWING STRUCTURES. GIVEN THE CONDITIONAL
NATURE OF THE THREAT WILL INTRODUCE 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS
TIME...BUT AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK MIGHT BE NEEDED IN LATER
OUTLOOKS.

..DIAL.. 11/12/2008

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KLCH [120803]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 120803
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
203 AM CST WED NOV 12 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1245 AM FLASH FLOOD JASPER 30.92N 94.00W
11/12/2008 JASPER TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

JASPER COUNTY SHERIFFS DEPARTMENT AND JASPER POLICE
DEPARTMENT REPORT SEVERAL STREETS CLOSED/BARRICADED DUE
TO FLOOD WATERS. SOME HOMES WITH WATER IN THEM ON SECOND
STREET.

&&

$$

ML

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 120706
SWODY2
SPC AC 120704

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0104 AM CST WED NOV 12 2008

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

CORRECTED FOR GENERAL THUNDER GRAPHIC

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN TRANSITION THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
DIFFER ON DETAILS OF THIS EVOLUTION. TWO SIGNIFICANT IMPULSES MOVING
THROUGH THE BROADER SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OF INTEREST THIS
PERIOD. INITIAL LEAD SHORTWAVE THROUGH WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT EJECTS
INTO THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY
THURSDAY. FARTHER WEST...MREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS MAINTAIN A MORE
PROGRESSIVE SRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF COASTAL AREA
RATHER THAN CLOSING OFF THIS FEATURE OVER THE WRN GULF AS IN THE
NAM...GFS AND MOST SREF MEMBERS. EARLIER ECMWF RUNS HAVE BEEN
PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE. LATEST RUN IS SOMEWHAT LESS
PROGRESSIVE AND HAS TRENDED CLOSER TO THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS.

AT THE SURFACE...A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND ALONG THE NRN
GULF THEN NEWD NEAR THE COASTAL CAROLINAS EARLY THURSDAY.

...COASTAL CAROLINAS...

INLAND PENETRATION OF COASTAL FRONT WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED IN PART
BY A WEDGE OF COOLER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE THAT WILL PERSIST EAST OF
THE APPALACHIANS. COLD AIR DAMMING MAY BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY ONSET
OF PRECIPITATION WITHIN DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION REGIME. STRONGER
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EJECTING AND DEAMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LIMITED
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT. NEVERTHELESS...A SMALL WARM
SECTOR COULD ADVANCE INLAND ALONG THE NC AND SC COASTS DURING THE
DAY. DEEP LAYER FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO
THE EJECTING WAVE AND CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.
INLAND WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL DUE TO WEAK
LAPSE RATES...AREAS OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WARM SECTOR WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR
WOULD SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS. HOWEVER...THE EXPECTED MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING INLAND ADVANCE
OF COASTAL BOUNDARY PRECLUDES MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT
THIS TIME.

...CNTRL AND NERN GULF COASTAL AREA...

RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR THE COASTAL
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF WARM FRONT. SEVERE THREAT IN THIS REGION IS
PREDICATED UPON HOW QUICKLY SRN STREAM IMPULSE EJECTS INTO THE CNTRL
GULF. THERE IS SOME CHANCE THAT THIS IMPULSE MAY EJECT INTO GULF
COASTAL AREA LATER THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL WINDS AND NWD PROGRESSION OF WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...LATEST
MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH A TENDENCY TO TRY AND
CLOSE OFF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF WHICH WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCE ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL. GIVEN THESE UNCERTAINTIES...WILL
INTRODUCE ONLY 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME BUT CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

..DIAL.. 11/12/2008

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 120652
SWODY2
SPC AC 120650

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 AM CST WED NOV 12 2008

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN TRANSITION THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
DIFFER ON DETAILS OF THIS EVOLUTION. TWO SIGNIFICANT IMPULSES MOVING
THROUGH THE BROADER SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OF INTEREST THIS
PERIOD. INITIAL LEAD SHORTWAVE THROUGH WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT EJECTS
INTO THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY
THURSDAY. FARTHER WEST...MREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS MAINTAIN A MORE
PROGRESSIVE SRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF COASTAL AREA
RATHER THAN CLOSING OFF THIS FEATURE OVER THE WRN GULF AS IN THE
NAM...GFS AND MOST SREF MEMBERS. EARLIER ECMWF RUNS HAVE BEEN
PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE. LATEST RUN IS SOMEWHAT LESS
PROGRESSIVE AND HAS TRENDED CLOSER TO THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS.

AT THE SURFACE...A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND ALONG THE NRN
GULF THEN NEWD NEAR THE COASTAL CAROLINAS EARLY THURSDAY.

...COASTAL CAROLINAS...

INLAND PENETRATION OF COASTAL FRONT WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED IN PART
BY A WEDGE OF COOLER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE THAT WILL PERSIST EAST OF
THE APPALACHIANS. COLD AIR DAMMING MAY BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY ONSET
OF PRECIPITATION WITHIN DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION REGIME. STRONGER
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EJECTING AND DEAMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LIMITED
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT. NEVERTHELESS...A SMALL WARM
SECTOR COULD ADVANCE INLAND ALONG THE NC AND SC COASTS DURING THE
DAY. DEEP LAYER FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO
THE EJECTING WAVE AND CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.
INLAND WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL DUE TO WEAK
LAPSE RATES...AREAS OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WARM SECTOR WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR
WOULD SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS. HOWEVER...THE EXPECTED MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING INLAND ADVANCE
OF COASTAL BOUNDARY PRECLUDES MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT
THIS TIME.

...CNTRL AND NERN GULF COASTAL AREA...

RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR THE COASTAL
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF WARM FRONT. SEVERE THREAT IN THIS REGION IS
PREDICATED UPON HOW QUICKLY SRN STREAM IMPULSE EJECTS INTO THE CNTRL
GULF. THERE IS SOME CHANCE THAT THIS IMPULSE MAY EJECT INTO GULF
COASTAL AREA LATER THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL WINDS AND NWD PROGRESSION OF WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...LATEST
MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH A TENDENCY TO TRY AND
CLOSE OFF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF WHICH WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCE ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL. GIVEN THESE UNCERTAINTIES...WILL
INTRODUCE ONLY 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME BUT CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

..DIAL.. 11/12/2008

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KHGX [120611]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KHGX 120611
LSRHGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1211 AM CST WED NOV 12 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1125 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 N WILLIS 30.45N 95.48W
11/11/2008 MONTGOMERY TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

FLOODING AT INTERSTATE 45 AND CALVARY ROAD NORTH OF
WILLIS. FLOODING ALSO REPORTED ALONG STATE HIGHWAY 149.

1150 PM FLASH FLOOD TODD MISSION 30.26N 95.83W
11/11/2008 GRIMES TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

FLOODING REPORTED AT FM HIGHWAY 1774 AND CR 302 WITH
ROADS IMPASSABLE. NUMEROUS COUNTY ROADS FLOODED ACROSS
COUNTY. HIGH WATER ON SEVERAL OTHER SECONDARY ROADWAYS.

1208 AM HAIL SPRING 30.06N 95.38W
11/12/2008 E0.75 INCH HARRIS TX TRAINED SPOTTER

PENNY SIZED HAIL AT LEXINGTON SUBDIVISION.

&&

$$

MM

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 120559
SWODY1
SPC AC 120556

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1156 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2008

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AS A MEAN/LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE MIDWEST UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
AS IT SPREADS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. IN THE
SOUTHERN SPLIT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS WEST TX EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL QUICKLY RACE NORTHEASTWARD TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
TONIGHT...WHILE THE LOW LATITUDE PORTION OF THE BROAD TROUGH IS
REINFORCED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS LARGE SCALE SCENARIO WILL
PROMOTE A GRADUAL FRONTOLYSIS WITH THE RESIDUAL SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT SPREADS EASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...WITH THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT EXITING THE
SOUTHEAST TX COAST TODAY.

...WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COAST...
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
ARKLATEX TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY...WITH A CORRESPONDING WEAK
SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX AND
LA. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION ALONG AND NORTH OF A
CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED WARM FRONT SHOULD LIMIT APPRECIABLE
DESTABILIZATION INLAND ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST AND MUCH OF LA.
STRONGER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY /1000-1750 J PER KG/ WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ACROSS FAR SOUTH TX...WITH A CONDITIONAL SEVERE RISK PRIOR
TO THE COLD FRONT EXITING THE COAST.

BENEATH RELATIVELY STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW /60 KT AT 500 MB/...A
MOIST/POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE PREFRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT
SOME STRONGER TSTMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS HAIL TO
SEVERE LEVELS /MAINLY ACROSS FAR SOUTH TX AND COASTAL SOUTHEAST TX/
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN SPITE OF A RESIDUAL MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SOME UPDRAFT ROTATION...ANEMIC
FLOW IN THE LOWEST 2 KM SUGGESTS ANY TORNADO THREAT WILL BE REMOTE
AND/OR DEPENDENT UPON STORM-SCALE INTERACTIONS.

...COASTAL CAROLINAS...
WITH AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH REACHING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS LATE IN THE PERIOD...SHOWERS/SOME TSTMS WILL DEVELOP
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES OVERNIGHT. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES...AN OFFSHORE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY
RETURN NORTHWARD TONIGHT OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. GIVEN
HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND A RESIDUAL COOL/STABLE
CONTINENTAL AIRMASS...AN INLAND PENETRATION OF THE APPROACHING
COASTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS SEEMS UNLIKELY THROUGH
TONIGHT...AND THUS SEVERE TSTMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

..GUYER/SMITH.. 11/12/2008

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2373

ACUS11 KWNS 120541
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120540
TXZ000-120845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2373
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SE TX.

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 120540Z - 120845Z

INCREASINGLY DENSE AND ORGANIZED BAND OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING TSTMS
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EWD ACROSS MID-UPPER TX
COASTAL PLAIN...INCLUDING HOU METRO AREA. RATES 2-3 INCHES/HOUR
WILL BE COMMON IN STRONGEST CORES EMBEDDED IN THIS BAND. SOME
BACKBUILDING AND TRAINING OF ECHOES WILL ENHANCE HEAVY RAIN THREAT
LOCALLY.

CONVECTIVE BAND WAS EVIDENT AT 05Z FROM SAN JACINTO COUNTY SWWD TO
DEWITT COUNTY...MOVING EWD APPROXIMATELY 15 KT ON N END AND DRIFTING
EWD ON S END. SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATED OLD BUT STILL WELL-DEFINED
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY -- PRODUCED BY MORNING-AFTERNOON MCS -- NOW NEARLY
STATIONARY FROM SWRN LA SWWD ACROSS BPT AREA...CURVING WWD-NWWD
ACROSS SWRN PORTIONS HOU METRO AREA. THIS BOUNDARY INTERSECTS
ONGOING CONVECTIVE BAND OVER NWRN FT BEND COUNTY. FAVORABLY MOIST
MARINE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZES INFLOW LAYER AIR MASS S OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY...WITH SFC DEW POINTS LOW 70S F AND 1.5-1.75 INCH PW. SLAB
OF THIS AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY OVER RESIDUAL
COLD POOL IN SUPPORT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAIN N OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY -- FROM SAN JACINTO COUNTY EWD TOWARD SRN PORTION
SABINE RIVER -- WITH ELEVATED MUCAPES 500-1000 J/KG. HIGH BOUNDARY
LAYER THETAE SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN CAPE 1000-1500 J/KG ROOTED AT
OR VERY NEAR SFC S OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALOFT
SHOULD INCREASE DURING NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APCHS FROM SW TX...AND AREA REMAINS UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
100-120 KT 250 MB JET MAX. IR AND MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY INDICATE
STRONGLY DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASINGLY PRONOUNCED
BAROCLINIC LEAF SIGNATURE.

ALTHOUGH HEAVY RAIN WILL PRESENT GREATEST OVERALL HAZARD WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS OR BRIEF/SMALL QLCS SPINUP ALSO
ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY LEWP/BOW FEATURES THAT CAN
DEVELOP WITHIN CONVECTIVE BAND. GUST POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE WITH
NEWD EXTENT FROM HOU AREA AS RESIDUAL/NEAR-SFC COLD POOL DEEPENS AND
BECOMES MORE STABLE.

..EDWARDS.. 11/12/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON 29179747 29799609 30249561 30699525 30579381 30219385
29469499 28989694 29179747

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KMFR [120508]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 120508
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
908 PM PST TUE NOV 11 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0907 PM HEAVY RAIN 6 ESE COOS BAY 43.33N 124.12W
11/11/2008 E1.33 INCH COOS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

1.33 INCHES OF RAIN IN 24 HOURS ENDING AT 11/2100 PST.

&&

$$

STOCKTON

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