SWODY1
SPC AC 121626
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1026 AM CST WED NOV 12 2008
VALID 121630Z - 131200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...LOWER TX COAST THROUGH TONIGHT...
ONE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS NOW MOVING EWD/NEWD OVER CENTRAL TX...AND
THIS WAVE IS PRECEDED BY A BAND OF RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER
MS VALLEY INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. THE PRIMARY WARM SECTOR IS
LIMITED TO A SMALL PART OF SE LA THAT WILL SOON BE OVERTURNED BY
ONGOING CONVECTION...AND S TX IN ADVANCE OF A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A TENDENCY FOR
VEERING FLOW AND DRYING ACROSS INTERIOR S TX...WHILE THE 70 F
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED TODAY ONLY ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST FROM NEAR/S OF CRP TO BRO. DESPITE ONLY MODEST
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION /PER 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM CRP AND
BRO/...LOW-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE WEAK TODAY AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INLAND IS IN QUESTION. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO
DEVELOP ALONG THE CONFLUENCE BANDS AND/OR PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
TODAY...INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...AS WELL AS STRONG DOWNDRAFTS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS.
LATER TONIGHT...ANOTHER UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NW MEXICO
WILL APPROACH S TX AND MAINTAIN AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LINGERING INSTABILITY
OVERNIGHT COULD STILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS...GIVEN MUCAPE OF AT LEAST 1500 J/KG AND 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KT.
...SE ATLANTIC AREA TONIGHT...
AS THE CENTRAL TX SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS NEWD...LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL
BECOME FOCUSED E OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. AN INFLUX OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SE ATLANTIC MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE PERIOD ALONG
THE COASTAL FRONT AS IT RETREATS INLAND.
..THOMPSON.. 11/12/2008
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