DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 070037
SWODY1
SPC AC 070036

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0736 PM CDT SAT NOV 06 2010

VALID 070100Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER CNTRL CA WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS INLAND
THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW ON THE
ERN SIDE OF THE SIERRAS NEAR THE CA-NV STATE-LINE. THIS CONVECTION
MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER COOLS. ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CONUS TONIGHT.

..BROYLES.. 11/07/2010

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 061937
SWODY1
SPC AC 061936

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 PM CDT SAT NOV 06 2010

VALID 062000Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS COASTAL
NC...EXPANDING SWWD FROM AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED A SMALL AREA OF
THUNDER TO NERN NC...TO COVER WHAT SHOULD BE A SHORT-LIVED/DIURNAL
EVENT.

FARTHER W...HAVE MAINTAINED THE THUNDER AREA OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL/SRN CA...AHEAD OF A COMPACT VORT MAX MOVING ONSHORE.
ELSEWHERE...APPRECIABLE THUNDER POTENTIAL IS NOT EVIDENT.

..GOSS.. 11/06/2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 AM CDT SAT NOV 06 2010/

...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN CA...
STRONGLY FORCED ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS/COMPACT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE CNTRL/SRN CA COAST...WILL BE
FAVORABLY TIMED WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE AND RESULT IN
SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN
CA. ALTHOUGH BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN WEAK...THE DEGREE OF FORCED ASCENT
ALONG WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES COOLING TO NEAR -18 DEG C SUGGEST
ISOLATED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP...MAINLY INVOF SRN SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY/TEHACHAPI MTNS.

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 061703
SWODY2
SPC AC 061702

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1202 PM CDT SAT NOV 06 2010

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW FIELD IS PROGGED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
U.S. THIS PERIOD...AS A SHARP TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EAST
GRADUALLY EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
MEANWHILE...A SECOND/LARGE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE ERN PACIFIC
WILL PROGRESS EWD INTO THE WRN U.S. WITH TIME.

COOL/STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE ERN STATES AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREDOMINATES. OVER THE WEST...BROAD LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES -- THOUGH
OVERALL LACK OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
AS THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE WEST COAST
STATES...SHOWERS -- AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED LIGHTNING
STRIKES -- WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER-ELEVATION PORTIONS OF THE
WA/OREGON COAST AND INTO NRN CA. ELSEWHERE...APPRECIABLE LIGHTNING
IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

..GOSS.. 11/06/2010

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 061554
SWODY1
SPC AC 061552

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1052 AM CDT SAT NOV 06 2010

VALID 061630Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN CA...
STRONGLY FORCED ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS/COMPACT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE CNTRL/SRN CA COAST...WILL BE
FAVORABLY TIMED WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE AND RESULT IN
SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN
CA. ALTHOUGH BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN WEAK...THE DEGREE OF FORCED ASCENT
ALONG WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES COOLING TO NEAR -18 DEG C SUGGEST
ISOLATED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP...MAINLY INVOF SRN SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY/TEHACHAPI MTNS.

..GRAMS/HALES.. 11/06/2010

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KDTX [061449]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDTX 061449
LSRDTX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1049 AM EDT SAT NOV 06 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM SNOW YALE 43.13N 82.80W
11/06/2010 M1.0 INCH ST. CLAIR MI CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL.

&&

$$

DKOOK

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 061231
SWODY1
SPC AC 061229

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0729 AM CDT SAT NOV 06 2010

VALID 061300Z - 071200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THIS PERIOD. DEEP
ERN TROUGH EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID ATLANTIC CST BY 12Z SUN AS
UPSTREAM RIDGE CROSSES THE PLNS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OFF THE SRN
CA CST WILL REACH SRN/CNTRL CA TONIGHT BEFORE CONTINUING ENE INTO UT
EARLY SUN.

...SRN CA...
FORCING FOR ASCENT AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WITH OFFSHORE TROUGH
EXPECTED TO PROMOTE SCTD AFTN/EVE CONVECTION OVER SRN CA. ISOLD
LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY ACCOMPANY SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN E OF KVBG. BUT WITH INSTABILITY REMAINING
QUITE WEAK...STORM COVERAGE LIKELY WILL BE SPARSE.

..CORFIDI/SMITH.. 11/06/2010

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KDTX [061210]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDTX 061210
LSRDTX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
810 AM EDT SAT NOV 06 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM SNOW ST. CLAIR 42.82N 82.49W
11/06/2010 M1.3 INCH ST. CLAIR MI TRAINED SPOTTER

6 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL.

&&

$$

DKOOK

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KTFX [061145]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 061145
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
545 AM MDT SAT NOV 06 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1121 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.37N 113.10W
11/05/2010 M60 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

DEEP CREEK

&&

$$

JBLANK

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KLOT [061022]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLOT 061022
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
522 AM CDT SAT NOV 06 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0515 AM SNOW PORTAGE 41.59N 87.18W
11/06/2010 M2.5 INCH PORTER IN TRAINED SPOTTER

TOTAL SNOWFALL 2.5 INCHES SINCE MIDNIGHT. MAIN ROADS IN
GOOD CONDITION...SECONDARY ROADS SLUSHY AND SNOW COVERED.
STILL SNOWING.

&&

$$

ALLSOPP

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 060832
SWOD48
SPC AC 060832

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0332 AM CDT SAT NOV 06 2010

VALID 091200Z - 141200Z

...PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A SEVERE THREAT AREA...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR U.S. BY LATE NEXT
WEEK...DOWNSTREAM OF A STRONG UPPER HIGH/RIDGE WHICH IS PROGGED TO
FORM OVER THE MID LATITUDE EASTERN PACIFIC. AND GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SUGGEST THAT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TO
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SERIES OF AMPLIFIED
SHORT WAVE PERTURBATIONS EMERGING FROM A STRONG BELT OF WESTERLIES
NOSING INTO THE WESTERN STATES. HOWEVER...VARIABILITY AMONG THE
MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES REMAINS QUITE LARGE CONCERNING THESE
DEVELOPMENTS...AND TOO SUBSTANTIAL TO CONFIDENTLY DETERMINE THE
MAGNITUDE AND LOCATION OF ANY ASSOCIATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL...PARTICULARLY DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE PERIOD.
IT DOES APPEAR INCREASINGLY CERTAIN... THOUGH...THAT GULF BOUNDARY
LAYER MODIFICATION AND INLAND MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE TOO WEAK TO
SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT PRIOR TO NEXT
THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

..KERR.. 11/06/2010

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KLOT [060648]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLOT 060648
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
148 AM CDT SAT NOV 06 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0140 AM SNOW PORTAGE 41.59N 87.18W
11/06/2010 M1.0 INCH PORTER IN TRAINED SPOTTER

ONE INCH SNOWFALL SO FAR. SECONDARY ROADS ARE SLICK AND
PARTIALLY SNOW COVERED. STILL SNOWING LIGHTLY.

&&

$$

ALLSOPP

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 060632
SWODY3
SPC AC 060631

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0131 AM CDT SAT NOV 06 2010

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE FURTHER AMPLIFICATION WITHIN A STRONG
BELT OF WESTERLIES...EXTENDING ACROSS THE MID LATITUDE PACIFIC INTO
THE WESTERN U.S...DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...A
SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...ROCKIES AND PLAINS. CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY
EXISTS AMONG THE MODELS CONCERNING SHORT WAVE DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN
THIS FEATURE...WHICH WILL IMPACT HOW SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS PROCEEDS
ON MONDAY...WITHIN THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS.
REGARDLESS...WHILE SLOW BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO MAY CONTINUE...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES A SUBSTANTIVE INLAND
RETURN FLOW REMAINS UNLIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. AS A
RESULT...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EAST OF THE ROCKIES...AND ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NATION...ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN LOW TO NEGLIGIBLE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

..KERR.. 11/06/2010

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 060442
SWODY2
SPC AC 060441

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1141 PM CDT FRI NOV 05 2010

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
WHILE IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME LESS
AMPLIFIED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...MODELS SUGGEST THAT A
BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SLOW THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF AN UPPER TROUGH AWAY FROM THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.
WITHIN AND BENEATH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH...
CYCLOGENESIS IS PROGGED TO OCCUR OFF THE NORTHERN/MID ATLANTIC
COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECOVER...AND A WEAK INLAND MOISTURE
RETURN MAY COMMENCE ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN GULF COAST.
HOWEVER...STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS MOST AREAS EAST OF
THE ROCKIES SUNDAY...WITH NEGLIGIBLE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO PRECLUDE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH
OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...BUT AN INLAND ADVANCING MID-LEVEL
THERMAL TROUGH PROBABLY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST WEAK BOUNDARY
LAYER DESTABILIZATION IN A MOISTENING POST-SURFACE COLD FRONT REGIME
ACROSS PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME AMPLIFICATION WITHIN A
STRONG BELT OF WESTERLIES NOSING FROM THE MID LATITUDE EASTERN
PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN U.S...WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC
COASTAL AREAS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY ENHANCED
FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF SHASTA/SISKIYOUS...NORTHERN SACRAMENTO
VALLEY AND NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...NORTHERN CALIFORNIA/PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY NOT BECOME
PARTICULARLY STRONG OR DEEP SUNDAY. HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY WHERE
AIDED BY FAVORABLE MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...IT
APPEARS THAT CAPE WILL EVENTUALLY EXTEND THROUGH THE FAVORABLE MIXED
PHASE LAYER FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CHARGE SEPARATION...LEADING TO
THE FORMATION OF AT LEAST ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS.

..KERR.. 11/06/2010

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 060441
SWODY1
SPC AC 060439

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1139 PM CDT FRI NOV 05 2010

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

PROGRESSIVE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL RESUME SATURDAY AS ERN U.S. UPPER
TROUGH EXITS THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD LATER IN PERIOD...WHILE AN
UPSTREAM WAVE MOVES THROUGH SRN CA AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN AREA.

...SRN CA...

FORCING FOR ASCENT AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THROUGH SRN CA WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY OCCUR WITH
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY...BUT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN VERY LIMITED
WITH LESS THAN 10% THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EXPECTED.

..DIAL/GARNER.. 11/06/2010

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