SWODY2
SPC AC 060441
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1141 PM CDT FRI NOV 05 2010
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
WHILE IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME LESS
AMPLIFIED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...MODELS SUGGEST THAT A
BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SLOW THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF AN UPPER TROUGH AWAY FROM THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.
WITHIN AND BENEATH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH...
CYCLOGENESIS IS PROGGED TO OCCUR OFF THE NORTHERN/MID ATLANTIC
COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECOVER...AND A WEAK INLAND MOISTURE
RETURN MAY COMMENCE ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN GULF COAST.
HOWEVER...STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS MOST AREAS EAST OF
THE ROCKIES SUNDAY...WITH NEGLIGIBLE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO PRECLUDE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH
OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...BUT AN INLAND ADVANCING MID-LEVEL
THERMAL TROUGH PROBABLY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST WEAK BOUNDARY
LAYER DESTABILIZATION IN A MOISTENING POST-SURFACE COLD FRONT REGIME
ACROSS PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME AMPLIFICATION WITHIN A
STRONG BELT OF WESTERLIES NOSING FROM THE MID LATITUDE EASTERN
PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN U.S...WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC
COASTAL AREAS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY ENHANCED
FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF SHASTA/SISKIYOUS...NORTHERN SACRAMENTO
VALLEY AND NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
...NORTHERN CALIFORNIA/PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY NOT BECOME
PARTICULARLY STRONG OR DEEP SUNDAY. HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY WHERE
AIDED BY FAVORABLE MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...IT
APPEARS THAT CAPE WILL EVENTUALLY EXTEND THROUGH THE FAVORABLE MIXED
PHASE LAYER FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CHARGE SEPARATION...LEADING TO
THE FORMATION OF AT LEAST ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS.
..KERR.. 11/06/2010
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