KCYS [050409]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 050409
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
909 PM MST TUE NOV 04 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0835 PM SNOW 16 SE SARATOGA 41.29N 106.59W
11/04/2008 E6.0 INCH CARBON WY TRAINED SPOTTER

SNOWING SINCE 430 PM.

0836 PM SNOW ENCAMPMENT 41.21N 106.79W
11/04/2008 E1.0 INCH CARBON WY CO-OP OBSERVER

STARTED AS RAIN AT 4 PM. TURNED TO SNO ABOUT 430 PM.

0843 PM SNOW BAGGS 41.04N 107.66W
11/04/2008 E2.0 INCH CARBON WY TRAINED SPOTTER

HEAVY WET SNOW.

0800 PM SNOW BATTLE MOUNTAIN 41.05N 107.27W
11/04/2008 M2.5 INCH CARBON WY MESONET

0800 PM SNOW NORTH FRENCH CREEK 41.33N 106.38W
11/04/2008 M3.5 INCH CARBON WY MESONET

0800 PM SNOW DIVIDE PEAK 41.30N 107.15W
11/04/2008 M3.0 INCH CARBON WY MESONET

0800 PM SNOW SAND LAKE 41.46N 106.28W
11/04/2008 M2.0 INCH CARBON WY MESONET

0800 PM SNOW SOUTH BRUSH CREEK 41.33N 106.50W
11/04/2008 M2.5 INCH CARBON WY MESONET

0800 PM SNOW OLD BATTLE 41.15N 106.97W
11/04/2008 M3.0 INCH CARBON WY MESONET

&&

$$

BCHAPMAN

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KSEW [050308]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 050308
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
708 PM PST TUE NOV 04 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0405 PM HAIL 1 S LAKE FOREST PARK 47.75N 122.29W
11/04/2008 M0.25 INCH KING WA CO-OP OBSERVER

LASTED FOR THIRTY MINUTES

&&

$$

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 050100
SWODY1
SPC AC 050057

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0657 PM CST TUE NOV 04 2008

VALID 050100Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NRN PLAINS...
A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. THIS EVENING WILL
AMPLIFY AND MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES LATE TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH...LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN THE PLAINS
AS A 50 TO 70 KT LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL
PROMOTE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE
LOW-LEVEL JET FROM NRN NEB ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN SD INTO SE ND AND
WRN MN.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE
IN THE 850 TO 700 MB LAYER AND COOL TEMPS IN THE MID-LEVELS. THIS
WILL IN TURN INCREASE MUCAPE VALUES INTO THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE
WITH THE INSTABILITY CONCENTRATED ABOVE 700 MB. IN ADDITION...A BAND
OF STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW IS RESULTING IN ABOUT 50 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR
WHICH IS EVIDENT ON THE WOODLAKE MN PROFILER. THE VERTICAL SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT COUPLED WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY COLD
TEMPS ALOFT /500 MB TEMPS OF -16 TO -18 C/ SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
HAIL WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.

FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS IN SCNTRL NEB...INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE
GREATER WITH MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE.
HOWEVER...THE RUC SUGGESTS A VORTICITY MAXIMA ASSOCIATED WITH A
SUBTLE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE NEWD AWAY FROM THIS AREA LATE
TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE CAPPING INVERSION TO BE MORE
EFFECTIVE IN SCNTRL NEB AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA IS
MORE UNCERTAIN THAN AREAS FURTHER NORTH.

..BROYLES.. 11/05/2008

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KMFR [050008]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 050008
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
408 PM PST TUE NOV 04 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 NNE SCOTTSBURG 43.67N 123.81W
11/04/2008 M1.85 INCH DOUGLAS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

TOTAL RAINFALL FOR THE PREVIOUS 24 HOUR PERIOD.

&&

$$

WOODHEAD

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KPDT [050001]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KPDT 050001
LSRPDT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
400 PM PST TUE NOV 04 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0915 AM SNOW 2 SW MEACHAM 45.49N 118.44W
11/04/2008 M3.0 INCH UMATILLA OR TRAINED SPOTTER

3 INCHES OF WET SNOW HAVE FALLEN SO FAR THIS MORNING.
TOTAL OF 0.35 INCHES OF LIQUID HAS FALLEN SINCE 6 AM.
ELEVATION 3820 FEET.

0115 PM SNOW 2 NNW MEACHAM 45.53N 118.44W
11/04/2008 E4.0 INCH UMATILLA OR TRAINED SPOTTER

4 INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN TODAY. NOT CURRENTLY SNOWING.
ELEVATION 3800 FEET.

0115 PM SNOW 7 ESE DIXIE 46.10N 118.02W
11/04/2008 E2.0 INCH WALLA WALLA WA TRAINED SPOTTER

1.5 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN SINCE THIS MORNING.
NOT CURRENTLY SNOWING. ELEVATION 3700 FEET.

&&

$$

RQB

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KMFR [042328]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 042328
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
327 PM PST TUE NOV 04 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0230 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 SE CAVE JUNCTION 42.11N 123.58W
11/04/2008 M1.42 INCH JOSEPHINE OR TRAINED SPOTTER

TOTAL RAINFALL FOR THE PREVIOUS 24 HOUR PERIOD.

&&

$$

WOODHEAD

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KREV [042244]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KREV 042244
LSRREV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
243 PM PST TUE NOV 04 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 W TAHOE CITY 39.17N 120.25W
11/03/2008 M117 MPH PLACER CA MESONET

PEAK WIND GUST OVER THE SIERRA CREST WEST OF LAKE TAHOE.

0540 PM HEAVY SNOW 12 W SUSANVILLE 40.41N 120.88W
11/03/2008 U0.0 INCH LASSEN CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

CHP WEBSITE REPORTING MULTIPLE VEHICLES STUCK IN SNOW ON
FREDONYER PASS ON HWY 36.

0730 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SW NIXON 39.75N 119.46W
11/03/2008 M94.00 MPH WASHOE NV MESONET

PEAK WIND GUST MEASURED AT VIRGINIA PEAK.

0740 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 WSW GARDNERVILLE 38.91N 119.83W
11/03/2008 M55.00 MPH DOUGLAS NV TRAINED SPOTTER

0840 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 NNE TIOGA PASS 37.99N 119.22W
11/03/2008 M113 MPH MONO CA MESONET

PEAK WIND GUST OVER THE SIERRA CREST IN MONO COUNTY

0846 PM TSTM WND GST 3 S SOUTH LAKE TAHOE 38.90N 119.98W
11/03/2008 M55.00 MPH EL DORADO CA ASOS

PEAK GUST AT SOUTH LAKE TAHOE AIRPORT

0855 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 NNW LEE VINING 38.01N 119.15W
11/03/2008 M60.00 MPH MONO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

WINDS INCREASED AROUND 815 PM. STRONGEST GUST SO FAR HAS
BEEN 60 MPH.

1045 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 SE MOUNT ROSE SKI ARE 39.27N 119.82W
11/03/2008 E57.00 MPH WASHOE NV MESONET

PEAK WIND AT NDOT SITE IN WASHOE VALLEY

0131 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 E MAMMOTH LAKES 37.64N 118.85W
11/04/2008 M64.00 MPH MONO CA AWOS

PEAK GUST AT MAMMOTH AIRPORT

0805 AM SNOW 1 NE INCLINE VILLAGE 39.26N 119.94W
11/04/2008 M2.5 INCH WASHOE NV TRAINED SPOTTER

A TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTER AT INCLINE VILLAGE REPORTED AN
OVERNIGHT TOTAL OF 2.5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL. TOTAL
PRECIPITATION FROM THE SNOW AND EARLIER RAINFALL WAS 0.50
INCH.

0816 AM SNOW TRUCKEE 39.33N 120.20W
11/04/2008 M2.0 INCH NEVADA CA ASOS

A TOTAL OF 2 INCHES OF SNOW FELL AT TRUCKEE OVERNIGHT.

0827 AM SNOW PORTOLA 39.80N 120.47W
11/04/2008 M1.0 INCH PLUMAS CA CO-OP OBSERVER

ONE INCH OF SNOW FELL AT PORTOLA OVENIGHT.

0835 AM SNOW 1 W MAMMOTH LAKES 37.64N 118.97W
11/04/2008 M3.0 INCH MONO CA PUBLIC

3 INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT.

0835 AM SNOW MAMMOTH LAKES 37.64N 118.96W
11/04/2008 M1.0 INCH MONO CA CO-OP OBSERVER

1 INCH OF SNOW OVERNIGHT.

0835 AM SNOW MOUNT ROSE SKI AREA 39.33N 119.89W
11/04/2008 M8.0 INCH WASHOE NV PUBLIC

4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW PAST 24 HOURS.

0835 AM SNOW 1 N COLD SPRINGS VALLEY 39.68N 119.96W
11/04/2008 M0.2 INCH WASHOE NV TRAINED SPOTTER

0.25 RAINFALL OVERNIGHT. ONE-QUARTER INCH OF SNOW.

0924 AM SNOW 5 WSW PROSSER CREEK RES 39.34N 120.25W
11/04/2008 M8.0 INCH NEVADA CA TRAINED SPOTTER

7.5 INCHES SNOW PAST 24 HOURS.

0924 AM SNOW 5 WNW TAHOE CITY 39.20N 120.23W
11/04/2008 M6.0 INCH PLACER CA PUBLIC

4-6 INCHES SNOW PAST 24 HOURS AT 8200 FEET. 2-4 INCHES AT
6200 FEET PAST 24 HOURS. SQUAW VALLEY SKI AREA.

0924 AM SNOW 8 W TRUCKEE 39.33N 120.35W
11/04/2008 M10.0 INCH NEVADA CA PUBLIC

8-10 INCHES OF SNOW PAST 24 HOURS. BOREAL SKI AREA.

1131 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 SSE CARSON CITY 39.14N 119.75W
11/04/2008 M0.45 INCH CARSON CITY NV TRAINED SPOTTER

0.45 INCHES RAINFALL SINCE YESTERDAY. TRACE OF SNOW.

&&

$$

O'HARA

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KSEW [042237]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 042237
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
236 PM PST TUE NOV 04 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0233 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 4 ENE VAIL 46.86N 122.58W
11/04/2008 THURSTON WA TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTED 2 MILES NORTHWEST OF LAWRENCE LAKE. LASTED FOR
ABOUT A FEW MINUTES. 1/4 INCH HAIL. WIND GUSTS TO 33 MPH.
LIGHTNING.

0233 PM HAIL 1 NE FORKS 47.96N 124.38W
11/04/2008 M0.25 INCH CLALLAM WA TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

GRUB

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KMFR [042139]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 042139
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
139 PM PST TUE NOV 04 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 S MOUNT SHASTA 41.31N 122.32W
11/04/2008 M7.00 INCH SISKIYOU CA TRAINED SPOTTER

TOTAL RAINFALL FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY OCTOBER 31 THROUGH
MONDAY NOVEMBER 3.

&&

$$

WOODHEAD

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KBOI [042053]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOI 042053
LSRBOI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
153 PM MST TUE NOV 04 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW DEADWOOD RES 44.30N 115.67W
11/04/2008 M3.0 INCH VALLEY ID CO-OP OBSERVER

3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW FELL FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM. ELEVATION
5948 FT.

0100 PM SNOW 11 SSE HORSESHOE BEND 43.77N 116.10W
11/04/2008 M6.0 INCH BOISE ID MESONET

6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW FELL AT BOGUS BASIN SNOTEL ELEVATION
6339 FT FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM.

0100 PM SNOW 19 NE MEADOWS 45.18N 115.97W
11/04/2008 M6.0 INCH VALLEY ID MESONET

6 INCHES NEW SNOW FELL AT SECESH SUMMIT SNOTEL ELEVATION
6519 FT FROM 2 AM UNTIL 1 PM.

0100 PM SNOW 9 N MCCALL 45.05N 116.13W
11/04/2008 M7.0 INCH ADAMS ID MESONET

7 INCHES OF NEW SNOW FELL AT BRUNDAGE SKI RESORT FROM 1
AM UNTIL 1 PM. ELEVATION 6299 FT.

0100 PM SNOW 10 ENE IDAHO CITY 43.92N 115.67W
11/04/2008 M5.0 INCH BOISE ID MESONET

5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW FELL AT MORES CREEK SUMMIT SNOTEL
ELEVATION 6099 FT FROM 2 AM UNTIL 1 PM.

0100 PM SNOW 7 W WARM LAKE 44.63N 115.80W
11/04/2008 M4.0 INCH VALLEY ID MESONET

4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW FELL AT BIG CREEK SUMMIT SNOTEL
ELEVATION 6581 FROM 2 AM UNTIL 1 PM.

&&

$$

DDECKER

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KPIH [041949]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 041949
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
1249 PM MST TUE NOV 04 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1247 PM HEAVY RAIN NW INKOM 42.80N 112.25W
11/04/2008 M1.25 INCH BANNOCK ID TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM PRECIPITATION TOTALS AS OF 1230 PM.

&&

$$

TWYATT

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 041948
SWODY1
SPC AC 041945

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0145 PM CST TUE NOV 04 2008

VALID 042000Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

SCATTERED CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WEST FROM PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO SWRN WY. THIS ACTIVITY
IS EVOLVING AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT WHERE LAPSE RATES ARE
STEEP AND MOISTURE IS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR PARCELS TO FREELY
CONVECT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THIS
REGION...MAINLY NORTH OF STRONG JET AXIS. ANOTHER AREA WHERE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST...ESPECIALLY THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...IS ALONG THE WA/ORE COAST. VIS IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS
SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS SPREADING INLAND WITHIN NWLY FLOW
REGIME. A FEW UPDRAFTS WILL PRODUCE LIGHTNING.

DOWNSTREAM...WARM ADVECTION WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS LATER
TONIGHT. AS ASCENT/MOISTENING INCREASE AT MID LEVELS IT APPEARS
ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ND. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE ROBUST ENOUGH FOR
HAIL PRODUCTION...THOUGH PRIMARILY SUB-SEVERE IN NATURE.

LIGHTNING WILL BE EXTREMELY SPARSE OVER NC/SERN VA THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH WEAK LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY OVER
LAND ARE NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR MEANINGFUL DEEP
CONVECTION...IT APPEARS ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY YET ALLOW A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THE MAJORITY OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
REMAIN OFFSHORE.

..DARROW.. 11/04/2008

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KREV [041832]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS55 KREV 041832
LSRREV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1032 AM PST TUE NOV 04 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0924 AM SNOW 8 W TRUCKEE 39.33N 120.35W
11/04/2008 M10.0 INCH NEVADA CA PUBLIC

8-10 INCHES OF SNOW PAST 24 HOURS. BOREAL SKI AREA.

0924 AM SNOW 5 WNW TAHOE CITY 39.20N 120.23W
11/04/2008 M6.0 INCH PLACER CA PUBLIC

4-6 INCHES SNOW PAST 24 HOURS AT 8200 FEET. 2-4 INCHES AT
6200 FEET PAST 24 HOURS. SQUAW VALLEY SKI AREA.

0924 AM SNOW 5 WSW PROSSER CREEK RES 39.34N 120.25W
11/04/2008 M8.0 INCH NEVADA CA TRAINED SPOTTER

7.5 INCHES SNOW PAST 24 HOURS.

0835 AM SNOW MOUNT ROSE SKI AREA 39.33N 119.89W
11/04/2008 M8.0 INCH WASHOE NV PUBLIC

4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW PAST 24 HOURS.

0835 AM SNOW MAMMOTH LAKES 37.64N 118.96W
11/04/2008 M1.0 INCH MONO CA CO-OP OBSERVER

1 INCH OF SNOW OVERNIGHT.

0835 AM SNOW 1 W MAMMOTH LAKES 37.64N 118.97W
11/04/2008 M3.0 INCH MONO CA PUBLIC

3 INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT.

0827 AM SNOW PORTOLA 39.80N 120.47W
11/04/2008 M1.0 INCH PLUMAS CA CO-OP OBSERVER

ONE INCH OF SNOW FELL AT PORTOLA OVENIGHT.

0816 AM SNOW TRUCKEE 39.33N 120.20W
11/04/2008 M2.0 INCH NEVADA CA ASOS

A TOTAL OF 2 INCHES OF SNOW FELL AT TRUCKEE OVERNIGHT.

0805 AM SNOW 1 NE INCLINE VILLAGE 39.26N 119.94W
11/04/2008 M2.5 INCH WASHOE NV TRAINED SPOTTER

A TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTER AT INCLINE VILLAGE REPORTED AN
OVERNIGHT TOTAL OF 2.5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL. TOTAL
PRECIPITATION FROM THE SNOW AND EARLIER RAINFALL WAS 0.50
INCH.

&&

$$

HOON

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KREV [041802]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KREV 041802
LSRREV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1001 AM PST TUE NOV 04 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0805 AM SNOW 1 NE INCLINE VILLAGE 39.26N 119.94W
11/04/2008 M2.5 INCH WASHOE NV TRAINED SPOTTER

A TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTER AT INCLINE VILLAGE REPORTED AN
OVERNIGHT TOTAL OF 2.5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL. TOTAL
PRECIPITATION FROM THE SNOW AND EARLIER RAINFALL WAS 0.50
INCH.

0816 AM SNOW TRUCKEE 39.33N 120.20W
11/04/2008 M2.0 INCH NEVADA CA ASOS

A TOTAL OF 2 INCHES OF SNOW FELL AT TRUCKEE OVERNIGHT.

0827 AM SNOW PORTOLA 39.80N 120.47W
11/04/2008 M1.0 INCH PLUMAS CA CO-OP OBSERVER

ONE INCH OF SNOW FELL AT PORTOLA OVENIGHT.

0835 AM SNOW MAMMOTH LAKES 37.64N 118.96W
11/04/2008 M1.0 INCH MONO CA CO-OP OBSERVER

1 INCH OF SNOW OVERNIGHT.

0835 AM SNOW MOUNT ROSE SKI AREA 39.33N 119.89W
11/04/2008 M8.0 INCH WASHOE NV PUBLIC

4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW PAST 24 HOURS.

0835 AM SNOW 1 W MAMMOTH LAKES 37.64N 118.97W
11/04/2008 M3.0 INCH MONO CA PUBLIC

3 INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT.

0924 AM SNOW 5 WSW PROSSER CREEK RES 39.34N 120.25W
11/04/2008 M8.0 INCH NEVADA CA TRAINED SPOTTER

7.5 INCHES SNOW PAST 24 HOURS.

0924 AM SNOW 5 WNW TAHOE CITY 39.20N 120.23W
11/04/2008 M6.0 INCH PLACER CA PUBLIC

4-6 INCHES SNOW PAST 24 HOURS AT 8200 FEET. 2-4 INCHES AT
6200 FEET PAST 24 HOURS.

0924 AM SNOW 8 W TRUCKEE 39.33N 120.35W
11/04/2008 M10.0 INCH NEVADA CA PUBLIC

8-10 INCHES OF SNOW PAST 24 HOURS.

&&

$$

HOON

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KPUB [041748]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 041748
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1048 AM MST TUE NOV 04 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1047 AM SNOW WOLF CREEK PASS 37.48N 106.80W
11/04/2008 M2.0 INCH MINERAL CO LAW ENFORCEMENT

2 INCHES OF SNOW AT WOLF CREEK PASS WITH MODERATE SNOW
CONTINUING

&&

$$

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KPIH [041732]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 041732
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
1032 AM MST TUE NOV 04 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM SNOW 6 N HAILEY 43.60N 114.30W
11/04/2008 E1.5 INCH BLAINE ID TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM SNOW TOTALS AS OF 700 A.M.

0900 AM HEAVY RAIN REXBURG 43.83N 111.79W
11/04/2008 E0.47 INCH MADISON ID TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM PRECIPITATION TOTALS AS OF 900 AM.

0900 AM SNOW SODA SPRINGS 42.66N 111.59W
11/04/2008 E3.5 INCH CARIBOU ID OFFICIAL NWS OBS

STORM SNOW TOTALS AS OF 950 AM

1000 AM HEAVY RAIN 10 NE POCATELLO 42.98N 112.33W
11/04/2008 E0.96 INCH BANNOCK ID TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM PRECIPITATION TOTALS AS OF 1000 AM. ADITIONALLY,
3/4 INCH OF SNOW WAS REPORTED.

1000 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 E POCATELLO 42.88N 112.45W
11/04/2008 E0.61 INCH BANNOCK ID TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM PRECIPITATION TOTALS AS OF 1000 AM.

&&

$$

TWYATT

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 041718
SWODY2
SPC AC 041716

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1116 AM CST TUE NOV 04 2008

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN SD/SWRN MN...SWD INTO
ERN OK...

...EASTERN PLAINS/MS VALLEY...

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES EARLIER TRENDS IN THE PROGRESSION OF
STRONG UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS WHERE CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER SERN SD LATE. THIS DEEPENING PROCESS
WILL RESULT IN A WELL DEFINED COLD FRONTAL SURGE AND SHARP BOUNDARY
ORIENTED FROM SFC LOW OVER SERN SD...SWD INTO WRN OK BY LATE
AFTERNOON...WHILE A PREFRONTAL DRY LINE SHOULD ADVANCE ACROSS NWRN
TX. DESPITE THIS STRONG...DEEPENING SYSTEM IT APPEARS WARM SECTOR
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE THROUGH THE 50S ACROSS
ALL BUT THE SRN MOST PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA AS SFC RIDGING
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS SEVERELY SUPPRESSED FAVORABLE
TRAJECTORIES FOR GREATER/QUICKER MOISTURE SURGE. AS A RESULT...A
NARROW AXIS OF MODEST INSTABILITY WILL EVOLVE ALONG IMMEDIATE WIND
SHIFT WHERE PROXIMITY TO STEEPER LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL
MAXIMIZE BUOYANCY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALL SUGGEST WARM SECTOR WILL
REMAIN STRONGLY CAPPED ANY REASONABLE DISTANCE AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. AS A RESULT...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG STRONGLY
FORCED COLD FRONT FROM SERN SD...SWD ACROSS ERN NEB...KS INTO NCNTRL
OK BY 21Z. STRONG SHEAR WOULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT DEEP ROTATING
UPDRAFTS...BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY AND LARGE SCALE SUPPORT MAY
ULTIMATELY FORCE A SQUALL LINE. EVEN SO...INITIAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE SUPERCELLULAR IN NATURE. ALTHOUGH SFC
DEW POINTS SHOULD STRUGGLE TO APPROACH 60F SOUTH OF
I-70...RELATIVELY COOL SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER MAY SUPPORT A FEW
TORNADOES. IF SQUALL LINE EVOLVES THEN DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME
THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT AS CONVECTION SPREADS DOWNSTREAM INTO AN
INCREASINGLY HOSTILE AIRMASS FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...THOUGH
STORM MOTIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE UPWARDS OF 40+KT.

..DARROW.. 11/04/2008

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KMFR [041658]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 041658
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
857 AM PST TUE NOV 04 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0830 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 NNE SELMA 42.34N 123.57W
11/04/2008 M1.98 INCH JOSEPHINE OR TRAINED SPOTTER

TOTAL RAINFALL FOR THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS.

&&

$$

WOODHEAD

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 041612
SWODY1
SPC AC 041609

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1009 AM CST TUE NOV 04 2008

VALID 041630Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NRN PLAINS...
IMPRESSIVE COLD UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS WRN U.S. WITH
ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT ENTERING HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY WRN WY TO SRN NV REACHES NRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
LATER TONIGHT AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS FROM CURRENT LOCATION NRN WY
TO SD/NE BY 12Z WED.

40-50KT LLJ CONTINUES TO ADVECT MODIFIED GULF AIR NWD ACROSS THE
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THRU TONIGHT. PRESENCE OF A
SUBSTANTIAL EML LIKELY WILL PROHIBIT RELEASE OF SFC-BASED
INSTABILITY THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. NEVERTHELESS...COMBINATION OF
INCREASING MOISTURE ABOVE THE EML /TOTAL PW AOA 1 INCH/...AND
STRENGTHENING UVV SHOULD SUPPORT SCTD ELEVATED TSTMS AFTER POSSIBLY
AS EARLY AS 03Z-06Z IN EXIT REGION OF LLJ. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE
MOST CONCENTRATED FROM CENTRAL/ERN NEB NNE INTO SE SD/SW MN...AND
POSSIBLY OVER CNTRL/NRN SD.

WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE EML AND MLCAPES
FROM 500-750 J/KG...A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY WITH
POSSIBLE LARGE HAIL ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS.

..NC OUTER BANKS...
STRONG LOW LVL VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL EXIST INVOF
HATTERAS...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE PERIOD AS SFC LOW EVOLVES
OFFSHORE. WHILE TSTMS WITH LOW LVL ROTATION MAY DEVELOP NEAR LOW
CENTER...EXPECT THAT ANY SFC-BASED INSTABILITY...AND ASSOCIATED
WATERSPOUT/TORNADO THREAT...WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE.

..HALES/JEWELL.. 11/04/2008

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KMFR [041555]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 041555
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
755 AM PST TUE NOV 04 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0754 AM SNOW 11 SSE SPRAGUE RIVER 42.30N 121.41W
11/04/2008 M1.5 INCH KLAMATH OR TRAINED SPOTTER

7 HOUR TOTAL SNOWFALL ENDING AT 730 AM PST

&&

$$

SPILDE

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KMFR [041533]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 041533
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
733 AM PST TUE NOV 04 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0649 AM SNOW N BONANZA 42.20N 121.40W
11/04/2008 E2.0 INCH KLAMATH OR TRAINED SPOTTER

8 HOUR ACCUMULATION ENDING AT 630AM...WATER VALUE .31

&&

$$

SPILDE

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KMFR [041450]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 041450
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
650 AM PST TUE NOV 04 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0649 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 SSW OBRIEN 42.06N 123.71W
11/04/2008 M2.05 INCH JOSEPHINE OR TRAINED SPOTTER

MONDAYS TOTAL RAINFALL MIDNIGHT TO MIDNIGHT. 5.04 INCHES
OF RAIN HAS FALLEN SINCE NOVEMBER 1ST.

&&

$$

SPILDE

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KMFR [041440]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 041440
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
638 AM PST TUE NOV 04 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0636 AM SNOW 4 N KENO 42.19N 121.91W
11/04/2008 M2.0 INCH KLAMATH OR TRAINED SPOTTER

8 HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT 730 AM PST

&&

$$

SPILDE

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 041247
SWODY1
SPC AC 041244

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0644 AM CST TUE NOV 04 2008

VALID 041300Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE...NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH NOW OVER THE FAR WRN U.S WILL
AMPLIFY SE TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION/CNTRL RCKYS THIS PERIOD AS
STRONG NNWLY JET NOW OVER THE NE PACIFIC CONTINUES SE INTO ORE/CA
AND NV. IN THE EAST...LOOSELY ORGANIZED UPR LOW/TROUGH WILL PERSIST
FROM THE LWR GRT LKS TO S ATLANTIC CST. EXPECT A SUBSTANTIAL LOW
LVL CIRCULATION WILL EVOLVE OFF THE SC/NC CST LATER TODAY IN
RESPONSE TO CONTINUED ENHANCEMENT OF LOW LVL BAROCLINITY AND WEAK
DPVA OVER THE GULF STREAM. THE LOW SHOULD MOVE N TO OFF THE
HATTERAS CST BY 12Z WED.

...NRN PLNS...
AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING WRN TROUGH...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE
OVER THE PLNS LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY WED AS A SSWLY LLJ
STRENGTHENS FROM OK/KS INTO THE MID/LWR MO VLY. ERN STATES TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SFC RIDGING FROM THE TN VLY TO THE NRN GULF OF MEX
WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT BREADTH OF NWD LOW LVL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
THROUGH THE PLNS. IN ADDITION...PRESENCE OF A SUBSTANTIAL EML
LIKELY WILL PROHIBIT RELEASE OF SFC-BASED INSTABILITY.
NEVERTHELESS...COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE ABOVE THE EML
/TOTAL PW AOA 1 INCH/...AND STRENGTHENING UVV SHOULD SUPPORT SCTD
ELEVATED TSTMS AFTER ABOUT 06Z IN EXIT REGION OF LLJ. THIS ACTIVITY
MAY BE MOST CONCENTRATED FROM ERN NEB NNE INTO SE SD/SW MN...AND
POSSIBLY OVER CNTRL/NRN SD.

ELEVATED CAPE OF 500 TO POSSIBLY 750 J/KG AND STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL
CLOUD LAYER FLOW /WITH 40-50 KT SSWLY CLOUD LAYER SHEAR/ SUGGEST
POSSIBILITY FOR HAIL IN SOME CELLS. BUT RELATIVELY LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY AND MODEST UVV SHOULD KEEP OVERALL SVR THREAT LOW.

...NC OUTER BANKS...
STRONG LOW LVL VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL EXIST INVOF
HATTERAS...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE PERIOD AS SFC LOW EVOLVES
OFFSHORE. WHILE TSTMS WITH LOW LVL ROTATION MAY DEVELOP NEAR LOW
CENTER...EXPECT THAT ANY SFC-BASED INSTABILITY...AND ASSOCIATED
WATERSPOUT/TORNADO THREAT...WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE.

..CORFIDI/SMITH.. 11/04/2008

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KREV [041154]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KREV 041154
LSRREV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
354 AM PST TUE NOV 04 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 W TAHOE CITY 39.17N 120.25W
11/03/2008 M117 MPH PLACER CA MESONET

PEAK WIND GUST OVER THE SIERRA CREST WEST OF LAKE TAHOE.

0540 PM HEAVY SNOW 12 W SUSANVILLE 40.41N 120.88W
11/03/2008 U0.0 INCH LASSEN CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

CHP WEBSITE REPORTING MULTIPLE VEHICLES STUCK IN SNOW ON
FREDONYER PASS ON HWY 36.

0730 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SW NIXON 39.75N 119.46W
11/03/2008 M94.00 MPH WASHOE NV MESONET

PEAK WIND GUST MEASURED AT VIRGINIA PEAK.

0740 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 WSW GARDNERVILLE 38.91N 119.83W
11/03/2008 M55.00 MPH DOUGLAS NV TRAINED SPOTTER

0840 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 NNE TIOGA PASS 37.99N 119.22W
11/03/2008 M113 MPH MONO CA MESONET

PEAK WIND GUST OVER THE SIERRA CREST IN MONO COUNTY

0846 PM TSTM WND GST 3 S SOUTH LAKE TAHOE 38.90N 119.98W
11/03/2008 M55.00 MPH EL DORADO CA ASOS

PEAK GUST AT SOUTH LAKE TAHOE AIRPORT

0855 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 NNW LEE VINING 38.01N 119.15W
11/03/2008 M60.00 MPH MONO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

WINDS INCREASED AROUND 815 PM. STRONGEST GUST SO FAR HAS
BEEN 60 MPH.

1045 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 SE MOUNT ROSE SKI ARE 39.27N 119.82W
11/03/2008 E57.00 MPH WASHOE NV MESONET

PEAK WIND AT NDOT SITE IN WASHOE VALLEY

0131 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 E MAMMOTH LAKES 37.64N 118.85W
11/04/2008 M64.00 MPH MONO CA AWOS

PEAK GUST AT MAMMOTH AIRPORT

&&

$$

BRONG

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 040943
SWOD48
SPC AC 040942

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0342 AM CST TUE NOV 04 2008

VALID 071200Z - 121200Z

...PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A SVR RISK AREA...

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS THE U.S. WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW
REGIME LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEFORE THE AMPLIFIED
POLAR TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE EASTERN STATES OVER THE
WEEKEND...THERE APPEARS LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PRE-FRONTAL
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE MID AND SOUTHERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD...IN
THE WAKE OF THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERN BRANCH CYCLONE. IT DOES APPEAR
THAT A SIGNIFICANT RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE IS POSSIBLE OFF THE GULF
OF MEXICO INTO TEXAS LATE IN THE COMING WEEKEND...OR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BUT...LARGE VARIABILITY EXISTS AMONG THE MODEL DATA
CONCERNING SHORT WAVE DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN THE BELT OF WESTERLIES
EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL STATES.

..KERR.. 11/04/2008

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 040828
SWODY3
SPC AC 040826

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 AM CST TUE NOV 04 2008

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THU ACROSS THE LOWER HALF OF
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY....

...SYNOPSIS...
THE SPREAD AMONG MODELS AND NCEP SREF/MREF MEMBERS CONCERNING THE
LARGE-SCALE FLOW EVOLUTION BEGINS TO GROW DURING THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. BUT...IT APPEARS THAT THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
AMPLIFIED POLAR TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SLOW DURING THIS PERIOD. AND...THE LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH OF SPLIT DOWNSTREAM WESTERLIES WILL BE SLOW TO SHIFT
AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

...MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
WITHIN THE MAIN POLAR TROUGH...THE PRIMARY EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PIVOTING AROUND THE EASTERN/
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY GRADUALLY
OCCLUDE. ALTHOUGH MEAN DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS AND SHEAR WILL REMAIN
SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER A BROAD AREA OF THE CENTRAL
U.S....BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOIST WARM
SECTOR SHOULD BECOME CONFINED TO A SHRINKING WEDGE ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GULF COAST REGION.
THUS...IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT THE SEVERE THREAT ACCOMPANYING A
WEAKENING PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND WILL DIMINISH EARLY THURSDAY
ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

FARTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE TO
INCREASE IN THE WARM SECTOR UNTIL THE GULF RETURN FLOW BECOMES CUT
OFF LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT IMPULSE DIGGING AROUND THE CLOSED MID/UPPER
LOW IS PROGGED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT AND DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW
COUPLED WITH FRONTAL FORCING MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A BROKEN
LINE OF STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH 30-50 KT
CYCLONIC 500 MB FLOW...STRONGER CONVECTION MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL BEFORE WEAKENING DURING THE
EVENING HOURS.

..KERR.. 11/04/2008

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 040604
SWODY2
SPC AC 040603

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1203 AM CST TUE NOV 04 2008

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WED/WED NIGHT ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS INTO THE MID/LWR MO VALLEY AND OZARK PLATEAU....

...SYNOPSIS...
LATEST MODEL RUNS AND NCEP SREF/MREF CONTINUE TO INDICATE POTENTIAL
FOR AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS INTO
PARTS OF THE MID/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AND THE OZARK PLATEAU DURING
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A DEEP SURFACE CYCLONE IS PROGGED TO ALREADY
BE ESTABLISHED ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY...EAST OF AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PROGRESSING
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES. AND...GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT THE AXIS OF THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT IN A NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVELY
TILTED FASHION EAST OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AS A STRONG EMBEDDED POLAR JET CORE NOSES THROUGH ITS
BASE...ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS...A
SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PLAINS BY 12Z THURSDAY.

THE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY...AND PRIMARY POTENTIAL LIMITING
FACTOR...REMAINS THE QUALITY OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN OFF
THE GULF OF MEXICO PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BOUNDARY LAYER
MODIFICATION REMAINS INHIBITED BY THE CONTINUING PRESENCE OF A
SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF INTO WESTERN
ATLANTIC...AND A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT EMBEDDED LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLONE
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST NEAR SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL
AREAS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...A NARROW TONGUE OF MOISTURE
RETURN IS NOW EVIDENT IN SATELLITE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
DATA...ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS
MAY ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO AREAS NEAR/NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE
CYCLONE BY WEDNESDAY...WHILE A PERHAPS MORE SUBSTANTIVE TONGUE OF
MOISTENING...NOW DEVELOPING EAST OF THE LOWER TEXAS/MEXICAN GULF
COAST...ADVECTS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL
PLAINS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

...PLAINS INTO MO VALLEY/OZARK PLATEAU/ARKLATEX...
STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY BE ONGOING AT THE OUTSET OF
THE PERIOD IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE...AND ALONG AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT...ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AS AN INITIAL JET STREAK SHIFTS NORTHWARD TO
THE EAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH PERHAPS ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE COLD...SOUTHWARD THROUGH PARTS OF NEBRASKA BY MID DAY.

BUT...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION...AND PRIMARY SEVERE
POTENTIAL...STILL SEEMS LIKELY TO AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF THE BETTER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
SURFACE HEATING ALONG A SHARPENING DRY LINE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MIXED
LAYER CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG...AS SURFACE DEW POINTS RISE TO AROUND
60F ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS...PERHAPS
NORTHWARD INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. AND...A WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY APPEARS TO EXIST FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL/LOCALIZED
DOWNBURSTS...POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.

MID-LEVEL INHIBITION IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE MORE WIDESPREAD STORM
DEVELOPMENT...UNTIL THE PRIMARY MID-LEVEL IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH AN
80-90 KT 500 MB JET STREAK PIVOTS TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND THE SURGING COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRY
LINE. THE EVOLUTION OF A SEVERE SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED...WHICH
SHOULD MAINTAIN OR INCREASE THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
THROUGH THE EVENING...PERHAPS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...EASTWARD
INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY/OZARK PLATEAU AND ARKLATEX.

..KERR.. 11/04/2008

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 040602
SWODY1
SPC AC 040559

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1159 PM CST MON NOV 03 2008

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NRN PLAINS...
A WRN U.S. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TODAY AND AMPLIFY ACROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT.
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
PLAINS STATES TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
IN THE MID-MO VALLEY. THIS WILL TRANSPORT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NWD
INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS WHERE THE NAM/GFS AND NAMKF DEVELOPS CONVECTION
LATE IN THE PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE 06Z
TO 12Z TIME FRAME TONIGHT IN CNTRL AND ERN SD SHOW MUCAPE VALUES IN
THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL
INCREASE AS A POWERFUL MID-LEVEL JET EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND
THE BASE OF THE ROCKIES UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL SPREAD A PLUME
OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEWD INTO THE REGION AND INCREASE 0-6
KM SHEAR INTO THE 45 TO 55 KT RANGE. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
HAIL WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS AS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

..BROYLES/SMITH.. 11/04/2008

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KMFR [040545]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 040545
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
945 PM PST MON NOV 03 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0858 PM HEAVY RAIN 8 NNE POWERS 42.99N 124.01W
11/03/2008 M2.00 INCH COOS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

SINCE 12AM

&&

$$

JOHNSON

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