SWODY2
SPC AC 041716
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1116 AM CST TUE NOV 04 2008
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN SD/SWRN MN...SWD INTO
ERN OK...
...EASTERN PLAINS/MS VALLEY...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES EARLIER TRENDS IN THE PROGRESSION OF
STRONG UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS WHERE CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER SERN SD LATE. THIS DEEPENING PROCESS
WILL RESULT IN A WELL DEFINED COLD FRONTAL SURGE AND SHARP BOUNDARY
ORIENTED FROM SFC LOW OVER SERN SD...SWD INTO WRN OK BY LATE
AFTERNOON...WHILE A PREFRONTAL DRY LINE SHOULD ADVANCE ACROSS NWRN
TX. DESPITE THIS STRONG...DEEPENING SYSTEM IT APPEARS WARM SECTOR
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE THROUGH THE 50S ACROSS
ALL BUT THE SRN MOST PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA AS SFC RIDGING
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS SEVERELY SUPPRESSED FAVORABLE
TRAJECTORIES FOR GREATER/QUICKER MOISTURE SURGE. AS A RESULT...A
NARROW AXIS OF MODEST INSTABILITY WILL EVOLVE ALONG IMMEDIATE WIND
SHIFT WHERE PROXIMITY TO STEEPER LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL
MAXIMIZE BUOYANCY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALL SUGGEST WARM SECTOR WILL
REMAIN STRONGLY CAPPED ANY REASONABLE DISTANCE AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. AS A RESULT...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG STRONGLY
FORCED COLD FRONT FROM SERN SD...SWD ACROSS ERN NEB...KS INTO NCNTRL
OK BY 21Z. STRONG SHEAR WOULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT DEEP ROTATING
UPDRAFTS...BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY AND LARGE SCALE SUPPORT MAY
ULTIMATELY FORCE A SQUALL LINE. EVEN SO...INITIAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE SUPERCELLULAR IN NATURE. ALTHOUGH SFC
DEW POINTS SHOULD STRUGGLE TO APPROACH 60F SOUTH OF
I-70...RELATIVELY COOL SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER MAY SUPPORT A FEW
TORNADOES. IF SQUALL LINE EVOLVES THEN DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME
THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT AS CONVECTION SPREADS DOWNSTREAM INTO AN
INCREASINGLY HOSTILE AIRMASS FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...THOUGH
STORM MOTIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE UPWARDS OF 40+KT.
..DARROW.. 11/04/2008
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