KGGW [210339]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGGW 210339
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
939 PM MDT SUN MAY 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0937 PM HAIL 15 S JORDAN 47.10N 106.91W
05/20/2007 E0.88 INCH GARFIELD MT TRAINED SPOTTER

THE HAIL BEGAN AT 932 PM AND ENDED AT 937 PM.

&&

$$

BOGEL

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KGGW [210328]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGGW 210328
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
927 PM MDT SUN MAY 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0910 PM HAIL 6 SE SAND SPRINGS 47.04N 107.39W
05/20/2007 E0.88 INCH GARFIELD MT TRAINED SPOTTER

THE HAIL BEGAN AT 845 PM AND CONTINUED UNTIL 910 PM. THE
HAIL COVERED THE GROUND.

&&

$$

BOGEL

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KOKX [210315]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS51 KOKX 210315
LSROKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
1114 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0548 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 8 S CONEY ISLAND 40.47N 74.01W
05/20/2007 M39.00 MPH MONMOUTH NJ BUOY

0554 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 8 S CONEY ISLAND 40.47N 74.01W
05/20/2007 M39.00 MPH MONMOUTH NJ BUOY

0600 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 8 SSE ROCKAWAY BEACH 40.46N 73.83W
05/20/2007 M47.00 MPH ANZ355 NJ C-MAN STATION

&&

$$

GOODMAN

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KOKX [210252]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KOKX 210252
LSROKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
1052 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0550 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 8 S CONEY ISLAND 40.47N 74.01W
05/20/2007 M39.00 MPH MONMOUTH NJ BUOY

0600 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 8 SSE ROCKAWAY BEACH 40.46N 73.83W
05/20/2007 M47.00 MPH ANZ355 NJ C-MAN STATION

&&

$$

GOODMAN

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KCYS [210249]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 210249
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
848 PM MDT SUN MAY 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0442 PM HAIL 9 SE CRAWFORD 42.59N 103.29W
05/20/2007 E0.25 INCH DAWES NE TRAINED SPOTTER

0726 PM TSTM WND GST 1 SW SIDNEY 41.12N 102.99W
05/20/2007 M58 MPH CHEYENNE NE ASOS

0730 PM TSTM WND GST 1 SW SIDNEY 41.12N 102.98W
05/20/2007 E60 MPH CHEYENNE NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEMI TRUCK BLOWN OVER ON I-80

0740 PM TSTM WND GST SIDNEY 41.13N 102.97W
05/20/2007 E60 MPH CHEYENNE NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

TWO SMALL TREES BLOW DOWN IN PARTS OF CITY 740-745 PM

&&

$$

JLH

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KUNR [210228]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 210228
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
827 PM MDT SUN MAY 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0712 PM TORNADO 15 S GILLETTE 44.07N 105.50W
05/20/2007 CAMPBELL WY EMERGENCY MNGR

METHANE GAS LEAKING FROM METHANE WELL DUE TO DAMAGE FROM
TORNADO.

&&

$$

GRICHARD

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KBYZ [210154]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBYZ 210154
LSRBYZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
754 PM MDT SUN MAY 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0737 PM HAIL 25 NW ROUNDUP 46.70N 108.77W
05/20/2007 E1.00 INCH MUSSELSHELL MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0737 PM HAIL 10 N ROUNDUP 46.61N 108.59W
05/20/2007 E1.00 INCH MUSSELSHELL MT

&&

$$

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KBYZ [210146]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBYZ 210146
LSRBYZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
746 PM MDT SUN MAY 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0737 PM HAIL 25 NW ROUNDUP 46.70N 108.77W
05/20/2007 E1.00 INCH MUSSELSHELL MT TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

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KUNR [210122]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 210122
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
722 PM MDT SUN MAY 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0315 PM HAIL 11 S RAPID CITY 43.92N 103.23W
05/20/2007 E0.75 INCH PENNINGTON SD PUBLIC

LASTED 10 MINUTES

0325 PM HAIL 1 NW FARMINGDALE 43.98N 102.91W
05/20/2007 E1.00 INCH PENNINGTON SD PUBLIC

0405 PM HAIL 6 SE FARMINGDALE 43.91N 102.81W
05/20/2007 M0.75 INCH PENNINGTON SD NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

$$

MERICKSO

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KUNR [210119]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 210119
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
719 PM MDT SUN MAY 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0712 PM TORNADO 15 S GILLETTE 44.07N 105.50W
05/20/2007 CAMPBELL WY FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

$$

MERICKSO

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KUNR [210111]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 210111
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
711 PM MDT SUN MAY 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 PM HAIL KYLE 43.42N 102.19W
05/20/2007 E1.75 INCH SHANNON SD PUBLIC

&&

$$

WFO UNR STAFF

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 210058
SWODY1
SPC AC 210056

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2007

VALID 210100Z - 211200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NRN HIGH PLAINS AND WRN DAKOTAS...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING OVER SWRN TX...

..NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO WRN DAKOTAS...

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED PRIMARY SURFACE LOW OVER N-CNTRL WY
WITH ATTENDANT SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING EWD FROM THIS FEATURE TO
SECONDARY SURFACE LOW OVER CNTRL SD. THE LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
THEN STRETCHED EWD THROUGH E-CNTRL SD AND THEN MORE SEWD ACROSS NRN
IA INTO CNTRL IL. THE GREATEST AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION HAS
OCCURRED OVER CNTRL/ERN SD ALONG AND S OF SURFACE FRONT WHERE STRONG
DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S
HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. GENERALLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER HAVE TEMPERED DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION WWD THROUGH NRN WY INTO ERN/CNTRL MT...THOUGH RUC
OBJECTIVE FIELDS SUGGEST THAT POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
/MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J PER KG/ DO EXIST ON IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF
FRONTAL ZONE.

DESPITE THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS ACROSS MT...WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING
NEWD THROUGH WRN MT...PERHAPS SUPPORTING THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
INVOF 3HT AS OF 0015Z. A FURTHER INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY OCCUR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FROM VICINITY OF SURFACE
BOUNDARY OVER NRN WY NWD/NEWD ACROSS ERN MT AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVERSPREADS
INSTABILITY AXIS. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS IN PLACE
TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF MAINLY
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THIS SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE EWD INTO NWRN SD AND WRN ND OVERNIGHT.

A SEPARATE AREA OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER WRN SD
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FROM NE OF PHP TO NE OF CDR WITHIN
STEEP LAPSE RATE AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. WHILE DEEP
LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...CURRENT MERRIMAN
NEB PROFILER INDICATES MODEST MID AND HIGH LEVEL WLY FLOW WITH 30-35
KT OF BULK SHEAR THROUGH THE LOWEST 6 KM AGL.

EXPECT THIS MCS TO LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL SD...PERHAPS INTO NWRN NEB. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS.

..SWRN TX...

CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES TO EVOLVE THIS EVENING
OVER PORTIONS OF CULBERSON...REEVES AND JEFF DAVIS COUNTIES...WITH
ADDITIONAL STORMS SWD INTO THE BIG BEND AREA.
AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES
OF AROUND 1000 J/KG AND 30-35 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR/ IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL. THIS
THREAT SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 03-04Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND
SLOWLY STABILIZES...AND STORMS MOVE TOWARD PROGRESSIVELY MORE CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT NEAR AND E OF THE PECOS RIVER /REF 21/00Z DRT SOUNDING/.

.MEAD.. 05/21/2007

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KBYZ [210055]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBYZ 210055
LSRBYZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
655 PM MDT SUN MAY 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0651 PM HAIL 46.30N 109.26W
05/20/2007 E1.00 INCH GOLDEN VALLEY MT CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

$$

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0843

ACUS11 KWNS 210048
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210048
SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-210215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0843
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN WY THROUGH SERN MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 281...

VALID 210048Z - 210215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 281
CONTINUES.

POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR STORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
ACROSS SERN MT AND INTO NERN WY THIS EVENING. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS.

A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM WRN SD THROUGH NERN WY AND INTO
S CNTRL MT. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS N-S ACROSS W CNTRL MT FROM JUST
WEST OF HAVRE SWD TO JUST EAST OF LIVINGSTON. DOWNSTREAM WARM SECTOR
REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH AXIS OF MLCAPE NEAR 1500 J/KT FROM
NE WY THROUGH SE MT. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOT
PARTICULARLY WARM WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S. POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR STORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY NEXT FEW
HOURS AS DEEP ASCENT ATTENDING EWD ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE INSTABILITY AXIS FROM S CNTRL THROUGH SERN
MT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM 40 TO 50 KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS
INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. SOME STORMS MAY ALSO EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS
WITH BOW ECHOES AS THEY MOVE EWD. THE STRENGTHENING SELY LOW LEVEL
JET WILL ENHANCE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...STORM RELATIVE INFLOW AND
FORWARD PROPAGATION. OTHER STORMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG E-W BOUNDARY
ACROSS NERN WY MAY POST A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL
AS THEY LIFT NEWD THROUGH INSTABILITY AXIS.

.DIAL.. 05/21/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...

43960293 44180441 44100582 45140714 45870837 46910834
47090544 44910293

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KBYZ [210043]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBYZ 210043
LSRBYZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
643 PM MDT SUN MAY 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0638 PM HAIL 10 N SHAWMUT 46.48N 109.52W
05/20/2007 E0.75 INCH WHEATLAND MT TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0842

ACUS11 KWNS 202317
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202317
SDZ000-210045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0842
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0617 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 202317Z - 210045Z

TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED NEXT HOUR OR SO AS STORMS MOVE THROUGH SWRN
SD. IF STORMS BEGIN TO SHOW SIGNS OF INCREASING INTENSITY OR
ORGANIZATION...A NEW WW MIGHT BE NEEDED ACROSS S CNTRL SD.

QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SWRN MN WNWWD THROUGH N CNTRL SD.
S OF THIS BOUNDARY...STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG. STORMS THAT
DEVELOPED OVER THE BLACK HILLS HAVE MOVED EWD AND EXTEND FROM HAAKON
COUNTY SWD INTO SHANNON COUNTIES. INTENSIFYING SLY LOW LEVEL JET
WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND STORM RELATIVE INFLOW AND MAY
HELP TO MAINTAIN FORWARD PROPAGATION. HOWEVER...CONCURRENT WITH THE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING
WHICH WILL BEGIN TO STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS ALONG WITH
MODEST MID LEVEL WINDS AND DEEP SHEAR WITH ERN EXTENT INTO SD MAY
SERVE AS LIMITING FACTORS FOR A MORE PERSISTENT AND ROBUST SEVERE
THREAT. THEREFORE...A WW FARTHER EAST ACROSS S CNTRL SD WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE NECESSARY UNLESS STORMS BEGIN TO SHOW SIGNS OF
BETTER ORGANIZATION.

.DIAL.. 05/20/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR...

43259868 43120038 43530099 44570060 44479862

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KUNR [202201]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 202201
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
401 PM MDT SUN MAY 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0344 PM HAIL 8 ESE FARMINGDALE 43.92N 102.75W
05/20/2007 E0.88 INCH PENNINGTON SD NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

$$

BC

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KUNR [202110]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 202110
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
309 PM MDT SUN MAY 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0140 PM HAIL 1 N HISEGA 44.07N 103.40W
05/20/2007 E1.00 INCH PENNINGTON SD NWS EMPLOYEE

0135 PM HAIL S JOHNSON SIDING 44.08N 103.44W
05/20/2007 E0.75 INCH PENNINGTON SD PUBLIC

0203 PM HAIL W RAPID CITY 44.08N 103.23W
05/20/2007 E0.88 INCH PENNINGTON SD NWS EMPLOYEE

0220 PM HAIL 4 S RAPID CITY 44.02N 103.24W
05/20/2007 E0.88 INCH PENNINGTON SD TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

BC

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KABQ [202054]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 202054
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
253 PM MDT SUN MAY 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0240 PM HAIL 11 W HOPE 32.82N 104.93W
05/20/2007 E1.75 INCH CHAVES NM LAW ENFORCEMENT

GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT U.S HIGHWAY 82 AND STATE
ROAD 13

&&

$$

GUYER

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 281

WWUS20 KWNS 202040
SEL1
SPC WW 202040
MTZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-210600-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 281
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
230 PM MDT SUN MAY 20 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MONTANA
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
NORTHEAST WYOMING

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM 230 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT.

HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHEAST OF MOORCROFT WYOMING TO 80 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
MILES CITY MONTANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FORMING
OVER THE ERN SLOPES OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN CNTRL/S CNTRL MT AND N
CNTRL WY THIS AFTERNOON. STRENGTHENING DEEP SHEAR WITH APPROACH OF
ID UPR DISTURBANCE AND CONTINUED ENELY LOW LEVEL FLOW IN WAKE OF
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL CREATE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE SETUP FOR
SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND. FARTHER SE...OTHER
STRONG TO SVR STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL EXPECTED TO PERSIST INVOF THE
BLACK HILLS.
THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES MAY INCREASE A BIT LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR
EARLY THIS EVENING IN S CNTRL MT...WHERE ENELY NEAR-SFC FLOW WILL BE
COLLOCATED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS. IF STORMS FORMING IN THE
REGION W AND S OF BILLINGS REMAIN DISCRETE...PART OF PRESENT WATCH
MAY REQUIRE UPGRADE TO TORNADO.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24025.

..CORFIDI

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KCYS [202027]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 202027 CCA
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
223 PM MDT SUN MAY 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0145 PM HAIL 8 S CHEYENNE 41.03N 104.79W
05/20/2007 E1.00 INCH LARAMIE WY TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

ASOWKO

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KCYS [202026]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 202026
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
223 PM MDT SUN MAY 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0145 PM HAIL 8 S CHEYENNE 41.03N 104.79W
05/20/2007 E1.00 INCH LARAMIE WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0145 PM HAIL 8 S CHEYENNE 41.03N 104.79W
05/20/2007 E1.00 INCH LARAMIE WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0145 PM HAIL 8 S CHEYENNE 41.03N 104.79W
05/20/2007 E1.00 INCH LARAMIE WY TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

ASOWKO

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KALY [202010]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KALY 202010
LSRALY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
410 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0255 PM HAIL GREENWICH 43.09N 73.50W
05/20/2007 E0.50 INCH WASHINGTON NY TRAINED SPOTTER

PEA AND MARBLE SIZED HAIL

0330 PM HAIL 3 S SUNDERLAND 43.07N 73.11W
05/20/2007 E0.50 INCH BENNINGTON VT TRAINED SPOTTER

DIME-SIZED HAIL

&&

$$

FRUGIS

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 202001
SWODY1
SPC AC 201959

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2007

VALID 202000Z - 211200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN NM INTO SW
TX...

..NRN HIGH PLAINS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED UPPER TROUGH BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND
ACROSS WA/ORE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DOWNSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING NEWD ACROSS ID. THIS LEAD UPPER FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
NEWD ACROSS MT THIS EVENING...AIDING IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NRN HIGH PLAINS...AND SHOULD REACH SRN SASKATCHEWAN BY 12Z MONDAY.
SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER CENTRAL/ERN MT
WITH APPROACH OF ID IMPULSE AND SUPPORT STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS.

AT THE SURFACE...STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A LOW PRESSURE AREA
DEVELOPING ALONG THE NERN WY/SERN MT BORDER AREA...WHILE SEWD
EXTENDING WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE NWD THROUGH SD TOWARD ND THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY WITH SURFACE HEATING
NOW OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THAT HAD CLOUDS EARLIER TODAY.
THIS COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S BENEATH STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL SUPPORT FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY
ALREADY EXTENDING FROM SERN MT THROUGH ERN WY TO MUCH OF SD/NEB.

TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MT/NWRN WY LIKELY IN
RESPONSE TO ASCENT AHEAD OF ID SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE
HEATING. ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND BECOME SEVERE
AS ACTIVITY SPREADS ENEWD INTO MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WITHIN ZONE
OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS NRN WY INTO SRN/ERN MT. HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. HOWEVER...STRONGER
AREA OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG MT/WY BORDER SUGGESTS AN INCREASED
TORNADO THREAT ACROSS THIS AREA.

ACTIVITY MAY CONGEAL INTO FORWARD PROPAGATING LINE SEGMENTS AND/OR
AN MCS ACROSS ERN MT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS THIS EVENING AS ELEVATED
CAPE/EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUPPORT A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT OVERNIGHT.

FARTHER S ALONG LEE TROUGH INTO SERN WY AND EAST ALONG WARM FRONT
INTO SD...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN
FORM IN THESE AREAS. DESPITE WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR INTO THIS
REGION...VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND ATTENDANT SEVERE THREAT.

..SRN NM INTO FAR W TX...
ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING AND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER CENTRAL/WRN NM AND AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHING THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO SW TX SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR ADDITIONAL
TSTMS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MOIST LOW LEVELS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL MAINTAIN MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS INTO THE EVENING. 30 KT OF WLY MID LEVEL FLOW PER
WHITE SANDS WIND PROFILER ATOP LOW LEVEL SSELY WINDS SUGGESTS DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELLS AND A FEW
SUPERCELLS.

.PETERS.. 05/20/2007

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0841

ACUS11 KWNS 201945
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201945
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-202045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0841
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0245 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN MT...NRN WY...WRN SD.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 201945Z - 202045Z

CONDITIONS STEADILY WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SVR THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...AND WW PROBABLY
WILL BE REQUIRED.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LOW NEAR GEY...WITH WAVY FRONTAL ZONE EWD
ACROSS AREA BETWEEN GCC-DGW...SRN BLACK HILLS...TO VICINITY MN/IA
BORDER. WY PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD RETREAT NWD AS WARM
FRONT DURING NEXT FEW HOURS...S OF WHICH NEAR-SFC AIR MASS SHOULD
BECOME MORE STRONGLY MIXED AND DRIER THAN THAT TO ITS N. MOIST AXIS
WILL BECOME EVEN MORE SHARPLY DEFINED N OF FRONT FROM NWRN SD WWD
OVER S-CENTRAL MT...SUPPORTING MLCAPES IN 800-1500 J/KG RANGE WITH
ADDITIONAL INSOLATION. MAIN FOCI FOR INITIATION WILL BE MOUNTAINS
INVOF WY/MT BORDER...THOUGH A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN MOIST
SECTOR. THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS WITH NWWD EXTENT...ACROSS SWRN
MT...MAY LIMIT HEATING AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND THEREFORE
MAKE SVR POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL/W-CENTRAL MT MORE CONDITIONAL THAN
THAT CLOSER TO WY BORDER.

DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK OVER SD...WITH BLACK
HILLS CONVECTION ALREADY PRODUCING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
HOWEVER...SHEAR INCREASES WITH WWD EXTENT ACROSS THIS REGION...IN
PROGRESSIVELY CLOSE PROXIMITY TO APCHG ID PERTURBATION EVIDENT IN
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY. AS TROUGH MOVES NEWD OVER NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...CONTINUED LOW LEVEL ISALLOBARIC/ISALLOHYPSIC RESPONSE WILL
YIELD STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW...AND BY EXTENSION...MORE FAVORABLE
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
APPEARED RATHER SMALL AT 19Z...WITH ONLY 10 KT FLOW OBSERVED THROUGH
LOWEST 2 KM AGL IN VWP AROUND BIL...HOWEVER RUC FCST SOUNDINGS
REASONABLY INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF 0-3 KM SRH 200-400 J/KG BY 23-00Z
TIME FRAME. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDE...ALREADY 50-60 KT OVER
S-CENTRAL MT...MAY INCREASE ANOTHER 10-15 KT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
SHIFT TOWARD LARGER ELY COMPONENT AND STRENGTHEN.

.EDWARDS.. 05/20/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...

45621039 45971123 46621079 47020946 47000609 46130420
45990387 44840256 43880289 43480441 43520646 44070831

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KCYS [201939]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 201939
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
139 PM MDT SUN MAY 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0135 PM HAIL 7 SSW CHEYENNE 41.05N 104.84W
05/20/2007 E1.00 INCH LARAMIE WY TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

ASOWKO

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0840

ACUS11 KWNS 201938
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201937
TXZ000-NMZ000-202200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0840
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0237 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NM INTO FAR W TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 201937Z - 202200Z

STORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
SOME CELLS WILL BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL.

SURFACE ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOW AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IN PLACE FOR STORMS WITH MID 50S DEWPOINTS AND STRONG HEATING.
OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS GIVEN
SHORT WAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF NRN MEXICO DISTURBANCE AND WEAK STORM
RELATIVE INFLOW. HOWEVER...GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY AND INITIATION
OF STORMS ON HIGH TERRAIN...HAIL DIAMETERS OF 1.00 TO 1.75 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FROM THE SACRAMENTO MTNS SWD INTO WRN
TX WHERE MID LEVEL FLOW IS A BIT STRONGER. FORECAST STORMS MOTIONS
ARE E TO SE AT 10-15 KTS.

.JEWELL.. 05/20/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

33700743 34840699 34850594 34860494 34440413 32300370
31390326 30360251 29780254 29710321 30600432 30670496
31570625 33020743

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0840

ACUS11 KWNS 201936
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201935
TXZ000-NMZ000-202200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0840
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0235 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NM INTO FAR W TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 201935Z - 202200Z

STORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
SOME CELLS WILL BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL.

SURFACE ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IN PLACE FOR STORMS WITH MID 50S DEWPOINTS AND STRONG HEATING.
OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS GIVEN
SHORT WAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF NRN MEXICO DISTURBANCE AND WEAK STORM
RELATIVE INFLOW. HOWEVER...GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY AND INITIATION
OF STORMS ON HIGH TERRAIN...HAIL DIAMETERS OF 1.00 TO 1.50 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FROM THE SACRAMENTO MTNS SWD INTO WRN
TX WHERE MID LEVEL FLOW IS A BIT STRONGER. FORECAST STORMS MOTIONS
ARE E TO SE AT 10-15 KTS.

.JEWELL.. 05/20/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

33700743 34840699 34850594 34860494 34440413 32300370
31390326 30360251 29780254 29710321 30600432 30670496
31570625 33020743

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KMPX [201930]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KMPX 201930
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
229 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0550 PM HAIL MAPLETON 43.93N 93.95W
05/19/2007 E0.88 INCH BLUE EARTH MN LAW ENFORCEMENT

HAIL COVERED GROUND

0555 PM HAIL MAPLETON 43.93N 93.95W
05/19/2007 E0.88 INCH BLUE EARTH MN TRAINED SPOTTER

CROP DAMAGE...REPORTS OF CORN CROPS BEATED INTO THE
GROUND.

0556 PM HAIL 1 SW MAPLETON 43.92N 93.97W
05/19/2007 E0.75 INCH BLUE EARTH MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0600 PM HAIL SW VERNON CENTER 43.96N 94.17W
05/19/2007 E0.88 INCH BLUE EARTH MN PUBLIC

0643 PM HEAVY RAIN MAPLETON 43.93N 93.95W
05/19/2007 U0.00 INCH BLUE EARTH MN LAW ENFORCEMENT

MAPLETON POLICE REPORT SEVERE STREET FLOODING THROUGHOUT
TOWN

0710 PM FLASH FLOOD MAPLETON 43.93N 93.95W
05/19/2007 BLUE EARTH MN LAW ENFORCEMENT

MULTIPLE SIDE STREETS FLOODED..A FEW STALLED CARS.
DRAINAGE DITCFHES OUTSIDE TOWN OVER BANKS

0714 PM HEAVY RAIN MAPLETON 43.93N 93.95W
05/19/2007 E0.00 INCH BLUE EARTH MN TRAINED SPOTTER

3.1 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE LATE AFTERNOON

0836 PM HEAVY RAIN MAPLETON 43.93N 93.95W
05/19/2007 M5.80 INCH BLUE EARTH MN PUBLIC

REPORT FROM A FORMER STORM SPOTTER. RAIN FELL FROM
ROUGHLY 500 PM TO TIME OF REPORT.

&&

$$

JVM

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KMPX [201926]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected Time And Size Of Hail

NWUS53 KMPX 201926
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED TIME AND SIZE OF HAIL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
225 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0555 PM HAIL MAPLETON 43.93N 93.95W
05/19/2007 M0.88 INCH BLUE EARTH MN TRAINED SPOTTER

CROP DAMAGE...REPORTS OF CORN CROPS BEATED INTO THE
GROUND.

&&

$$

JVM

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KMPX [201922]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 201922
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
222 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0219 PM HAIL MAPLETON 43.93N 93.95W
05/19/2007 M0.75 INCH BLUE EARTH MN TRAINED SPOTTER

CROP DAMAGE...REPORTS OF CORN CROPS BEATED INTO THE
GROUND.

&&

$$

JVM

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 201731
SWODY2
SPC AC 201730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2007

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN PLAINS
TO THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...

..SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED ON
MONDAY AS A TROUGH...NOW LOCATED ALONG THE BC/WA COAST...DIGS SEWD
FROM THE PACIFIC NW STATES INTO THE NRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. FARTHER
S...A BROAD TROUGH WILL EVOLVE IN THE SUBTROPICAL WLYS WITH SEVERAL
WEAK IMPULSE TRANSLATING ENEWD FROM THE MEXICAN PLATEAU TO THE GULF
COAST STATES. AT THE SAME TIME... RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BEGIN
BUILDING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE REMNANTS
OF CURRENT NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC CLOSED LOW LIFT NEWD OFF THE NRN
ATLANTIC COAST/CANADIAN MARITIMES.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FLOW
ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS ON MONDAY
AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM NERN ND SWWD TO THE NEB PANHANDLE BY 22/00Z.
THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD INTO CO...WHILE MODELS
INDICATE WEAK TROUGHING OVER WY. MEANWHILE...LEE TROUGHING ALONG
THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL DEEPEN IN RESPONSE TO EVOLVING
UPPER FLOW PATTERN.

..PLAINS...
SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE GULF COAST/SERN
STATES ALLOWING LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW OVER THE WRN GULF BASIN TO BECOME
SELY ON MONDAY...WITH GULF MOISTURE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S/
RETURNING INLAND TO AT LEAST PARTS OF THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
SIMILAR SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS ALONG/E
OF COLD FRONT...BUT MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE SHOULD BE FROM
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION. DESPITE THE MOISTURE SOURCE...STEEP LAPSE RATES
EDGING EWD OVER THE PLAINS AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL COMBINE
FOR MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...AND
AROUND 2000 J/KG INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.

30-40 KT SLY LLJ ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF EARLY DAY 2 IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO 40-50 KT MONDAY EVENING AND VEER SLIGHTLY
TO SSWLY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL
WINDS WITH THE NRN STREAM TROUGH LAGGING THE INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS DURING DAY 2. HOWEVER...AT LEAST 30 KT OF SWLY MID
LEVEL WINDS ATOP AN INCREASING SLY LLJ INTO THE DAKOTAS/MN SUGGEST
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR MULTICELLS AND SOME SUPERCELLS.
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS SHOULD BE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS...BUT THE STRENGTHENING LLJ AND FLOW VEERING WITH
HEIGHT IN THE LOW LEVELS INDICATES A TORNADO POTENTIAL. MODELS
SUGGEST TSTMS/TSTM CLUSTERS MAY EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE MOVING EWD
ACROSS NRN NEB/ERN DAKOTAS/NWRN MN MONDAY EVENING AND REACHING WEST
CENTRAL/SW MN BY 12Z TUESDAY.

FARTHER S...MODELS SHOW A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS
THE SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE...INCREASING
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRY LINE/LEE TROUGH AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING
WILL LIKELY WEAKEN INHIBITION FOR SURFACE BASED TSTMS DEVELOPING
MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VECTORS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND ALSO INTO PARTS OF ERN
CO/WRN KS...WHERE SSELY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE LOCATED BENEATH
30-40 KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MORE DIURNAL
WITH THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IN THE SRN PART OF THE SLIGHT RISK
DIMINISHING BY MID-LATE MONDAY EVENING.

..WY...
LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE WARRANTED ACROSS WY WHERE MODELS
INDICATE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.

.PETERS.. 05/20/2007

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KMFL [201654]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS52 KMFL 201654
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1254 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1103 AM FLASH FLOOD MIAMI BEACH 25.81N 80.13W
05/20/2007 MIAMI-DADE FL NWS EMPLOYEE

NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED WATER INTRUSION INTO 1ST FLOOR
APARTMENTS AT 1040 MICHIGAN AVE

&&

$$

EBAUGH

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 201632
SWODY1
SPC AC 201630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2007

VALID 201630Z - 211200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN HI
PLNS...

..SYNOPSIS...
FAIRLY STRONG UPR LOW NOW CROSSING VANCOUVER ISLAND EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO NEAR PDT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS LEAD IMPULSE NOW
OVER CNTRL ORE /PER WV IMAGERY/ SWEEPS E/NE TO THE ID/MT BORDER THIS
EVENING...AND INTO SRN SASKATCHEWAN EARLY MONDAY. CYCLOGENESIS
SHOULD OCCUR OVER ERN MT LATER TODAY/TONIGHT WITH APPROACH OF ORE
IMPULSE AND VANCOUVER LOW. THE SFC PATTERN OVER THE NRN HI PLNS
ATTM HAS BEEN COMPLICATED BY OUTFLOW FROM LAST EVENING'S STORMS.
BEST GUESS IS THAT LOW WILL FORM INVOF THE WY/MT BORDER LATE TODAY
..AND DEVELOP NE INTO WRN ND BY 12Z MONDAY. FARTHER E...FRONT NOW
STALLED OVER THE DAKOTAS AND NRN IA SHOULD BEGIN TO EDGE NWD AS A
WARM FRONT AS LOW DEEPENS TO THE WEST.

IN THE SRN STREAM...SRN NM AND FAR W TX WILL CONTINUE TO BE GLANCED
BY NRN FRINGE OF SRN STREAM JET. SATELLITE SUGGESTS PRESENCE OF AN
IMPULSE NOW OVER NRN CHIHUAHUA THAT SHOULD REACH THE ELP AREA THIS
EVENING.

..NRN HI PLNS LATE THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT...
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS OVER
CNTRL/ERN MT AND NRN/ERN WY LATER TODAY AS SFC HEATING CONTINUES IN
WAKE OF OVERNIGHT TSTM DEBRIS. A MODIFIED CP AIR MASS REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS REGION...WHICH WILL LESSEN DEGREE OF POTENTIAL
DESTABILIZATION. NEVERTHELESS...EVEN WITH MODEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...HEATING SHOULD BOOST MLCAPE TO 1000-2000 J/KG S INVOF
DEVELOPING SFC LOW/WARM FRONT IN SRN MT AND SE ALONG LEE TROUGH INTO
ERN WY INTO WRN SD/NEB. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK OVER MUCH
OF THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SUGGESTING THAT STORMS
ALONG THE LEE TROUGH AND WARM FRONT SHOULD BE MAINLY MULTICELL
CLUSTERS...WITH ONLY SHORT-LIVED THREATS FOR SVR WIND/HAIL.

DEEP SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN OVER NRN WY AND MT LATER TODAY/TONIGHT
WITH APPROACH OF ORE UPR IMPULSE. MORE ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED STORMS
APPEAR LIKELY...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS. STORMS
SHOULD FORM THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS S CNTRL MT AHEAD OF THE ORE
IMPULSE...WITH ACTIVITY THEN MOVING/DEVELOPING E/NE INTO SE MT AND
THE WRN DAKOTAS TONIGHT. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOMEWHAT
LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SUGGEST MAIN SVR THREATS WILL BE
LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND. DEGREE OF LATTER THREAT WILL...IN PART...BE
DICTATED BY UPSCALE GROWTH OF STORMS INTO FORWARD PROPAGATING
SEGMENTS. ALSO...AS WITH LAST SUNDAY'S EVENT...THREAT WILL ALSO BE
INFLUENCED BY AMOUNT OF HEATING AND PERSISTENCE OF ELY COMPONENT TO
NEAR-SFC FLOW JUST N OF WARM FRONT.

..SRN NM INTO FAR W TX THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY TONIGHT...
WEAK TO MODERATE WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW...A BIT STRONGER THAN
YESTERDAY...WILL PREVAIL OVER SRN NM/SW TX...DOWNSTREAM FROM NRN
BAJA UPR LOW. FAIRLY RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S HAS SPREAD W INTO REGION AND SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY. COUPLED WITH STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
APPROACH OF CHIHUAHUAN UPR IMPULSE...SETUP MAY SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SUSTAINED STORMS/MARGINAL SUPERCELLS...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR W TX. GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT
MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THREAT...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY LOW SVR
PROBABILITIES ATTM.

.CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 05/20/2007

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KMFL [201613]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 201613
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1212 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1043 AM FLASH FLOOD MIAMI BEACH 25.81N 80.13W
05/20/2007 MIAMI-DADE FL LAW ENFORCEMENT

REPORTS FROM THE MIAMI BEACH POLICE DEPARTMENT...
VENITIAN CAUSEWAY IS FLOODED AND CLOSED... ALTON ROAD
BETWEEN 9TH AND 12TH STREETS FLOODED...PURDY AVE... WEST
AVE BETWEEN 13TH AND 14TH FLOODED... WASHINGTON AVE-
15TH,16TH AND 17TH STREETS, ROYAL PALM BETWEEN 34TH AND
35TH AVE.... ALL ARE FLOODED.... MOST OF THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF MIAMI BEACH FROM 17TH STREET SOUTH UNDER
WATER... HIGH TIDES AT 1142 AM WILL INHIBIT DRAINAGE
UNTIL TIDE GOES OUT...

&&

$$

EBAUGH

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KMFL [201537]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 201537
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1137 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1043 AM FLASH FLOOD MIAMI BEACH 25.81N 80.13W
05/20/2007 MIAMI-DADE FL NWS EMPLOYEE

NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED WATER INTRUSION INTO 1ST FLOOR
APARTMENTS AT 1040 MICHIGAN AVE

&&

$$

EBAUGH

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KMFL [201524]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 201524
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1124 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1043 AM FLASH FLOOD NORTH MIAMI BEACH 25.93N 80.16W
05/20/2007 MIAMI-DADE FL LAW ENFORCEMENT

MIAMI DADE SHERRIFFS OFFICE REPORTED WATER INTRUSION OF
PROPERTY AT THE PALM TRAILER PARK... 12000 NE 16TH AVE

&&

$$

EBAUGH

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KMFL [201446]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 201446
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1046 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1043 AM FLASH FLOOD HIALEAH 25.86N 80.29W
05/20/2007 MIAMI-DADE FL PUBLIC

PUBLIC OBSERVER WITH MEASURED 24 HOUR RAIN TOTAL FROM 8AM
19TH TO 7AM 20TH.... 5.13 INCHES

&&

$$

EBAUGH

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KFSD [201426]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KFSD 201426
LSRFSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
926 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0545 PM HAIL 4 S MAGNOLIA 43.59N 96.07W
05/19/2007 E0.88 INCH ROCK MN PUBLIC

HAIL LASTED FOR 10 MINUTES ENDING AROUND 555 PM CDT.

0550 PM HAIL 4 SSE MAGNOLIA 43.59N 96.04W
05/19/2007 E0.88 INCH NOBLES MN PUBLIC

0555 PM HAIL 6 SE MAGNOLIA 43.58N 95.99W
05/19/2007 E0.88 INCH NOBLES MN PUBLIC

0620 PM HAIL 3 S AVON 42.96N 98.06W
05/19/2007 E0.75 INCH BON HOMME SD PUBLIC

0725 PM HAIL 11 S LENNOX 43.19N 96.90W
05/19/2007 E0.75 INCH LINCOLN SD PUBLIC

&&
CORRECTED TIMES ON 4 S MAGNOLIA HAIL REPORTS.
$$

JH

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KMFL [201336]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 201336 CCA
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
924 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0919 AM FLASH FLOOD 2 N CAROL CITY 26.01N 80.26W
05/20/2007 MIAMI-DADE FL PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORT OF SIGNIFICANT STREET FLOODING NEAR 111 NE
158TH STREET AND ADJACENT PORTION OF NORTH MIAMI AVENUE.
STREET IS IMPASSABLE DUE TO FLOOD WATER.

&&

$$

DD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
922 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0919 AM FLASH FLOOD 5 N CAROL CITY 26.01N 80.26W
05/20/2007 BROWARD FL PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORT OF SIGNIFICANT STREET FLOODING NEAR 111 NE
58TH STREET AND ADJACENT PORTION OF NORTH MIAMI AVENUE.
STREET IS IMPASSABLE DUE TO FLOOD WATER.

&&

$$

DD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
903 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0745 AM FLASH FLOOD MIAMI LAKES 25.91N 80.31W
05/20/2007 MIAMI-DADE FL NWS EMPLOYEE

OFF-DUTY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EMPLOYEE REPORTED
SIGNIFICANT STREET FLOODING IN MIAMI LAKES...NEAR THE
INTERSECTION OF THE PALMETTO EXPRESSWAY AND 67TH AVENUE

&&

$$

DD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
828 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM FLASH FLOOD NORTH MIAMI BEACH 25.93N 80.16W
05/20/2007 MIAMI-DADE FL LAW ENFORCEMENT

NORTH MIAMI BEACH POLICE DEPARTMENT REPORTED DEEP
FLOODING AND IMPASSABLE ROADS IN MULTIPLE LOCATIONS. DEEP
FLOODING WAS REPORTED AT INTERSECTION OF 167 ST. AND NW
2ND AVE. EASTBOUND TO 163 ST AND NE 19TH AVE.

&&

$$

DIEHL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
408 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0402 PM HAIL 1 S OPA-LOCKA 25.89N 80.26W
05/19/2007 E0.75 INCH MIAMI-DADE FL PUBLIC

&&

$$

STRASSBERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
356 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0355 PM HAIL MIAMI LAKES 25.91N 80.31W
05/19/2007 E0.50 INCH MIAMI-DADE FL PUBLIC

ALSO STRONG WINDS AT TIME OF REPORT

&&

$$

LOCKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
355 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0348 PM HAIL HIALEAH GARDENS 25.87N 80.34W
05/19/2007 E1.75 INCH MIAMI-DADE FL PUBLIC

AND FUNNEL CLOUDS NOT TOUCHING THE GROUND OCCURRING AT
TIME OF REPORT.

&&

$$

LOCKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
353 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0345 PM HAIL 1 NW OPA-LOCKA 25.91N 80.27W
05/19/2007 E1.00 INCH MIAMI-DADE FL PUBLIC

REPORTED NEAR INTERSECTION OF NW 67TH AVE AND MIAMI LAKES
DRIVE.

&&

$$

STRASSBERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
938 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0845 PM TSTM WND GST 6 E BUCKHEAD RIDGE 27.14N 80.79W
05/18/2007 M0 MPH AMZ610 FL C-MAN STATION

WIND GUST TO 45 KNOTS AT TOWER L001 ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

&&

$$

GARCIA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
903 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0637 PM WATER SPOUT 15 E MIAMI INTERNATIONA 25.80N 80.05W
05/14/2007 AMZ651 FL OTHER FEDERAL

MIAMI TOWER OBSERVERS CALLED TO REPORT 3 WATER SPOUTS
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS 10-15 NM EAST OF MIAMI.

&&

$$

DD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
859 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0515 PM FLOOD NAPLES 26.14N 81.80W
05/14/2007 COLLIER FL TRAINED SPOTTER

NWS TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED UP TO 3 INCHES OF WATER
PONDING ON OSPREY AVENUE IN NAPLES

&&

$$

DD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
601 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0416 PM HAIL 4 NE NAPLES 26.18N 81.75W
05/14/2007 E0.25 INCH COLLIER FL TRAINED SPOTTER

0420 PM HAIL 3 NE VANDERBILT BEACH 26.30N 81.79W
05/14/2007 M1.50 INCH COLLIER FL TRAINED SPOTTER

0440 PM HAIL 2 NE NAPLES 26.16N 81.77W
05/14/2007 E0.25 INCH COLLIER FL TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

DD

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KMFL [201324]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 201324 CCA
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
924 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0919 AM FLASH FLOOD 2 N CAROL CITY 26.01N 80.26W
05/20/2007 MIAMI-DADE FL PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORT OF SIGNIFICANT STREET FLOODING NEAR 111 NE
58TH STREET AND ADJACENT PORTION OF NORTH MIAMI AVENUE.
STREET IS IMPASSABLE DUE TO FLOOD WATER.

&&

$$

DD

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KMFL [201322]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 201322
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
922 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0919 AM FLASH FLOOD 5 N CAROL CITY 26.01N 80.26W
05/20/2007 BROWARD FL PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORT OF SIGNIFICANT STREET FLOODING NEAR 111 NE
58TH STREET AND ADJACENT PORTION OF NORTH MIAMI AVENUE.
STREET IS IMPASSABLE DUE TO FLOOD WATER.

&&

$$

DD

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KFGF [201309]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 201309
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
809 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1145 PM FLASH FLOOD MOORHEAD 46.86N 96.76W
05/18/2007 CLAY MN LAW ENFORCEMENT

AIRPORT MANAGER/SHERIFF OBSERVED FLOODING OF RUNWAYS AND
TAXIWAYS AT MOORHEAD AIRPORT.

&&

$$

WBARRETT

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KMFL [201303]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 201303
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
903 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0745 AM FLASH FLOOD MIAMI LAKES 25.91N 80.31W
05/20/2007 MIAMI-DADE FL NWS EMPLOYEE

OFF-DUTY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EMPLOYEE REPORTED
SIGNIFICANT STREET FLOODING IN MIAMI LAKES...NEAR THE
INTERSECTION OF THE PALMETTO EXPRESSWAY AND 67TH AVENUE

&&

$$

DD

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 201240
SWODY1
SPC AC 201238

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0738 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2007

VALID 201300Z - 211200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...

..NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
THE MID LEVEL LOW JUST W OF VANCOUVER WILL MOVE ESEWD TO WA BY
TONIGHT...WHILE A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE ORE COAST
PROGRESSES ENEWD TO WRN MT BY THIS EVENING. CYCLOGENESIS IS
EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH ALONG A LOW-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR THE WY/MT BORDER. THE RESULTANT SURFACE LOW
WILL THEN DEVELOP NEWD INTO WRN ND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FARTHER E IN THE NRN PLAINS...A SURFACE FRONT ACROSS SRN SD AND SRN
MN WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT NWD AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO THE
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS BY LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.

THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS CONSISTS OF A
MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE
MID-UPPER 50S...WHICH CONTINUES TO BE LESS THAN SHOWN IN SHORT TERM
MODEL FORECASTS. THIS MOISTURE...IN COMBINATION WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG S OF THE WARM
FRONT AND E OF THE LEE TROUGH ACROSS NEB/SD. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE
RATHER WEAK OVER MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE
LEE TROUGH AND WARM FRONT SHOULD BE LARGELY MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH
ONLY SHORT-LIVED THREATS FOR DOWNBURST WINDS OR HAIL.

VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BECOME STRONGER TOWARD NERN WY AND MT IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE MID LEVEL JET. HERE...MORE ORGANIZED STORM TYPES
ARE EXPECTED...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS.
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS S
CENTRAL MT IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL WAVE AND SURFACE
LOW...AND STORMS WILL SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD EWD/NEWD TOWARD SERN MT
AND THE WRN DAKOTAS BY TONIGHT. SOMEWHAT LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
/BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE LOWER 50S/ AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL GENERALLY FAVOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS. THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL BE PARTIALLY
DEPENDENT UPON UPSCALE GROWTH OF CONVECTION INTO A FORWARD
PROPAGATING MCS BY THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS SE MT AND SW
ND.

..SRN NM INTO FAR W TX THIS AFTERNOON...
A BROAD/WEAK SRN STREAM TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER SRN AZ/SW NM AND NW
MEXICO. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 50S HAVE SPREAD WWD
INTO SRN NM/W TX IN THE WAKE OF A PRIOR FRONTAL INTRUSION...AND A
PLUME OF STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXISTS OVER THIS AREA. THE
NRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER MID-UPPER FLOW WITH THE SRN STREAM WILL
EXTEND AS FAR N AS THE BIG BEND...WHERE AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO
MAY OCCUR. GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THREAT...WILL
OUTLOOK ONLY LOW HAIL AND WIND PROBABILITIES.

.THOMPSON/TAYLOR.. 05/20/2007

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KMFL [201228]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 201228
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
828 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM FLASH FLOOD NORTH MIAMI BEACH 25.93N 80.16W
05/20/2007 MIAMI-DADE FL LAW ENFORCEMENT

NORTH MIAMI BEACH POLICE DEPARTMENT REPORTED DEEP
FLOODING AND IMPASSABLE ROADS IN MULTIPLE LOCATIONS. DEEP
FLOODING WAS REPORTED AT INTERSECTION OF 167 ST. AND NW
2ND AVE. EASTBOUND TO 163 ST AND NE 19TH AVE.

&&

$$

DIEHL

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