SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202317
SDZ000-210045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0842
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0617 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL SD
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 202317Z - 210045Z
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED NEXT HOUR OR SO AS STORMS MOVE THROUGH SWRN
SD. IF STORMS BEGIN TO SHOW SIGNS OF INCREASING INTENSITY OR
ORGANIZATION...A NEW WW MIGHT BE NEEDED ACROSS S CNTRL SD.
QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SWRN MN WNWWD THROUGH N CNTRL SD.
S OF THIS BOUNDARY...STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG. STORMS THAT
DEVELOPED OVER THE BLACK HILLS HAVE MOVED EWD AND EXTEND FROM HAAKON
COUNTY SWD INTO SHANNON COUNTIES. INTENSIFYING SLY LOW LEVEL JET
WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND STORM RELATIVE INFLOW AND MAY
HELP TO MAINTAIN FORWARD PROPAGATION. HOWEVER...CONCURRENT WITH THE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING
WHICH WILL BEGIN TO STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS ALONG WITH
MODEST MID LEVEL WINDS AND DEEP SHEAR WITH ERN EXTENT INTO SD MAY
SERVE AS LIMITING FACTORS FOR A MORE PERSISTENT AND ROBUST SEVERE
THREAT. THEREFORE...A WW FARTHER EAST ACROSS S CNTRL SD WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE NECESSARY UNLESS STORMS BEGIN TO SHOW SIGNS OF
BETTER ORGANIZATION.
.DIAL.. 05/20/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR...
43259868 43120038 43530099 44570060 44479862
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