KAPX [200356]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 200356
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1156 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1014 PM NON-TSTM WND GST OSCODA 44.42N 83.33W
10/19/2011 M46.00 MPH IOSCO MI AWOS

MEASURED AT THE OSCODA-WURTSMITH AIRPORT.

&&

$$

SCHWARTZ

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KIWX [200339]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 200339
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1139 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1125 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 SE BENTON HARBOR 42.09N 86.41W
10/19/2011 M2.00 INCH BERRIEN MI TRAINED SPOTTER

RAINFALL SINCE 5 AM

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX1101412

$$

SKIPPER

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KGRR [200327]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 200327
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1127 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1115 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 W SOUTH HAVEN 42.40N 86.29W
10/19/2011 M50 MPH VAN BUREN MI OTHER FEDERAL

GLERL OBSERVATION

&&

$$

JK

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KMKX [200301]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KMKX 200301
LSRMKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1001 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0223 PM NON-TSTM WND GST E RACINE 42.73N 87.78W
10/19/2011 M58.00 MPH RACINE WI MESONET

WIND GUST TO 58 MPH AT RACINE YACHT CLUB. REPORT RELAYED
TO NWS BY MARK BADEN-CHANNEL 12-MILWAUKEE.

0335 PM NON-TSTM WND GST MILWAUKEE INTERNATIONAL 42.94N 87.90W
10/19/2011 M47.00 MPH MILWAUKEE WI ASOS

0348 PM NON-TSTM WND GST RACINE BATTEN AIRPORT 42.76N 87.81W
10/19/2011 M45.00 MPH RACINE WI ASOS

0410 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NE KENOSHA 42.59N 87.80W
10/19/2011 M54.00 MPH LMZ646 WI C-MAN STATION

WIND SPEED AT 410 PM - 44 MPH GUSTS TO 54 MPH. SITE ID IS
KNSW3.

0410 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 E KENOSHA 42.58N 87.80W
10/19/2011 M54.00 MPH LMZ646 WI C-MAN STATION

410 PM DATA - WIND SPEED 44 MPH GUSTS TO 54 MPH. SITE ID
IS KNSW3.

0500 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 E SHEBOYGAN 43.75N 87.69W
10/19/2011 M52.00 MPH LMZ643 WI C-MAN STATION

5 PM DATA-WIND SPEED 47 MPH GUSTS TO 52 MPH. SITE ID IS
SGNW3.

0500 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 W RACINE 42.73N 87.80W
10/19/2011 M47.00 MPH RACINE WI MESONET

0500 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 NE MILWAUKEE 43.06N 87.87W
10/19/2011 M47.00 MPH MILWAUKEE WI MESONET

0500 PM NON-TSTM WND GST SHOREWOOD 43.09N 87.89W
10/19/2011 M45.00 MPH MILWAUKEE WI MESONET

0500 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 N SHEBOYGAN 43.78N 87.72W
10/19/2011 M51.00 MPH SHEBOYGAN WI MESONET

0500 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 ENE MILWAUKEE 43.05N 87.88W
10/19/2011 M48.00 MPH MILWAUKEE WI C-MAN STATION

5 PM DATA - WIND SPEED 36 MPH GUSTS TO 48 MPH. SITE ID IS
MLWW3.

0540 PM NON-TSTM WND GST RACINE 42.73N 87.78W
10/19/2011 M46.00 MPH RACINE WI ASOS

0547 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SW RACINE 42.70N 87.83W
10/19/2011 M51.00 MPH RACINE WI TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM SPOTTER IN MOUNT PLEASANT MEASURED 51 MPH ON HIS
HOME WEATHER STATION. SMALL TREE BRANCHES DOWN. LARGEST
BRANCH DOWN IS 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER. FREQUENT WIND GUSTS
41-51 MPH.

0636 PM NON-TSTM WND GST RACINE 42.73N 87.78W
10/19/2011 M53.00 MPH RACINE WI ASOS

RACINE ASOS-GUST TO 53 MPH AT 636 PM. SITE ID IS RAC.

0659 PM NON-TSTM WND GST RACINE 42.73N 87.78W
10/19/2011 M47.00 MPH RACINE WI ASOS

0700 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 E SHEBOYGAN 43.75N 87.69W
10/19/2011 M53.00 MPH LMZ643 WI C-MAN STATION

7 PM DATA-WIND SPEED 43 MPH GUSTS TO 53 MPH. SITE ID IS
SGNW3.

0720 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 E KENOSHA 42.58N 87.80W
10/19/2011 M61.00 MPH LMZ646 WI C-MAN STATION

720 PM DATA-WIND SPEED 49 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 61 MPH.
SENSOR IS 63 FEET HIGH IN THE AIR.

0727 PM NON-TSTM WND GST MILWAUKEE 43.03N 87.92W
10/19/2011 M49.00 MPH MILWAUKEE WI ASOS

0800 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 ENE MILWAUKEE 43.05N 87.88W
10/19/2011 M53.00 MPH MILWAUKEE WI C-MAN STATION

STATION ID IS MLWW3.

&&

$$

BHAHN

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KMKX [200251]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMKX 200251
LSRMKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
950 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 E SHEBOYGAN 43.75N 87.69W
10/19/2011 M53 MPH LMZ643 WI C-MAN STATION

7 PM DATA-WIND SPEED 43 MPH GUSTS TO 53 MPH. SITE ID IS
SGNW3.

&&

$$

BHAHN

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KMKX [200246]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMKX 200246
LSRMKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
945 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 ENE MILWAUKEE 43.05N 87.88W
10/19/2011 M53.00 MPH MILWAUKEE WI C-MAN STATION

STATION ID IS MLWW3.

&&

$$

BHAHN

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KGRR [200230]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 200230
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1030 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1020 PM HEAVY RAIN BATH 42.82N 84.45W
10/19/2011 M0.77 INCH CLINTON MI TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL.

&&

$$

RSUTTLE

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KMKX [200229]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMKX 200229
LSRMKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
928 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0223 PM NON-TSTM WND GST E RACINE 42.73N 87.78W
10/19/2011 M58 MPH RACINE WI MESONET

WIND GUST TO 58 MPH AT RACINE YACHT CLUB. REPORT RELAYED
TO NWS BY MARK BADEN-CHANNEL 12-MILWAUKEE.

&&

$$

BHAHN

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KLOT [200220]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLOT 200220
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
920 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0410 PM HIGH SUST WINDS BURNS HARBOR 41.61N 87.13W
10/19/2011 M45.00 MPH PORTER IN OFFICIAL NWS OBS

BHRI3 GLOS WEATHER STATION

0800 PM HIGH SUST WINDS CHICAGO 41.88N 87.63W
10/19/2011 M47.00 MPH COOK IL PARK/FOREST SRVC

63RD STREET BEACH - CHICAGO PARK DISTRICT WEATHER
STATION.

&&

$$

BEACHLER

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KGRR [200159]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 200159
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
959 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0455 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG ST. JOHNS 43.00N 84.56W
10/19/2011 CLINTON MI LAW ENFORCEMENT

MASSIVE POWER OUTAGE REPORTED IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF CLINTON COUNTY

0731 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 NNW LANSING 42.78N 84.59W
10/19/2011 M41.00 MPH CLINTON MI ASOS

0756 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 E KENTWOOD 42.88N 85.52W
10/19/2011 M40.00 MPH KENT MI ASOS

0800 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 W SOUTH HAVEN 42.40N 86.29W
10/19/2011 M45.00 MPH VAN BUREN MI OTHER FEDERAL

GLERL OBSERVATION

&&

$$

JK

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KDTX [200147]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDTX 200147
LSRDTX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
947 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0605 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 6 W ST. CHARLES 43.30N 84.27W
10/19/2011 SAGINAW MI TRAINED SPOTTER

12 INCH DIAMETER TREE DOWN ON A GUARDRAIL. WINDS
ESTIMATED AT 55 MPH.

0709 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG SAGINAW 43.42N 83.95W
10/19/2011 SAGINAW MI TRAINED SPOTTER

NUMEROUS LARGE BRANCHES AND POWERLINES DOWN IN THE CITY.
WINDS ESTIMATED AT 50 MPH.

0720 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG BAY CITY 43.59N 83.89W
10/19/2011 BAY MI BROADCAST MEDIA

LIGHT POLE BLOWN OVER ONTO A VEHICLE.

0750 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG SAGINAW 43.42N 83.95W
10/19/2011 SAGINAW MI 911 CALL CENTER

MULTIPLE REPORTS OF TREES DOWN IN SAGINAW TOWNSHIP

&&

$$

MR

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KLWX [200143]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 200143
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
943 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0930 PM FLASH FLOOD LEESBURG 39.10N 77.56W
10/19/2011 LOUDOUN VA EMERGENCY MNGR

RESTRICTED LANE AT RT 15 AND BRADDOCK ROAD... WATER
OVER ROAD

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1101980

$$

HAS

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KLWX [200141]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 200141
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
941 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0930 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 WSW BELMONT 39.05N 77.55W
10/19/2011 LOUDOUN VA EMERGENCY MNGR

ROAD CLOSED AT DULLES GREENWAY AND SYCOLYN ROAD

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1101979

$$

HAS

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KDTX [200139]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDTX 200139
LSRDTX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
938 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0936 PM HEAVY RAIN NEWPORT 42.00N 83.31W
10/19/2011 M1.20 INCH MONROE MI TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

MR

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KMKX [200132]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMKX 200132
LSRMKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
832 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0720 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 E KENOSHA 42.58N 87.80W
10/19/2011 M61 MPH LMZ646 WI C-MAN STATION

720 PM DATA-WIND SPEED 49 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 61 MPH.
SENSOR IS 63 FEET HIGH IN THE AIR.

&&

$$

BHAHN

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KAPX [200129]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 200129
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
929 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0552 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 NNE HARRISVILLE 44.71N 83.27W
10/19/2011 M53.00 MPH ALCONA MI C-MAN STATION

MEASURED AT STURGEON POINT LIGHT.

0610 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NNE LEELANAU STATE PA 45.21N 85.55W
10/19/2011 M46.00 MPH LEELANAU MI C-MAN STATION

MEASURED AT GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT.

0620 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 E AU GRES 44.04N 83.53W
10/19/2011 M55.00 MPH LHZ421 MI C-MAN STATION

MEASURED AT GRAVELLY SHOALS LIGHT.

0652 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 ENE THOMPSONS HARBOR 45.36N 83.50W
10/19/2011 M47.00 MPH LHZ347 MI C-MAN STATION

MEASURED AT PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT.

&&

$$

SCHWARTZ

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KMKX [200105]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMKX 200105
LSRMKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
804 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0727 PM NON-TSTM WND GST MILWAUKEE 43.03N 87.92W
10/19/2011 M49 MPH MILWAUKEE WI ASOS

0659 PM NON-TSTM WND GST RACINE 42.73N 87.78W
10/19/2011 M47 MPH RACINE WI ASOS

&&

$$

BHAHN

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KLOT [200104]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLOT 200104
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
804 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0710 PM NON-TSTM WND GST WAUKEGAN 42.37N 87.87W
10/19/2011 M58 MPH LAKE IL OFFICIAL NWS OBS

50 KNOT GUST MEASURED AT WAUKEGAN HARBOR GLOS WEATHER
STATION.

&&

$$

RC

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KLOT [200059]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLOT 200059
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
759 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0745 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 NE CHICAGO 41.92N 87.57W
10/19/2011 M61 MPH LMZ741 IL C-MAN STATION

53 KNOT GUST RECORDED AT HARRISON-DEVER CRIB.

&&

$$

RC

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KLOT [200054]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLOT 200054
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
754 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0729 PM HIGH SUST WINDS WAUKEGAN 42.37N 87.87W
10/19/2011 M47 MPH LAKE IL OFFICIAL NWS OBS

RECORDED AT WAUKEGAN HARBOR GLOS WEATHER STATION.

&&

$$

RC

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KLOT [200044]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLOT 200044
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
744 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 PM HIGH SUST WINDS CHICAGO 41.88N 87.63W
10/19/2011 M40 MPH COOK IL PARK/FOREST SRVC

RECORDED AT CHICAGO PARK DISTRICT 63RD STREET BEACH
WEATHER STATION.

0700 PM HIGH SUST WINDS CHICAGO 41.88N 87.63W
10/19/2011 M43 MPH COOK IL PARK/FOREST SRVC

RECORDED AT CHICAGO PARK DISTRICT OAK ST BEACH WEATHER
STATION.

&&

$$

RC

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 200020
SWODY1
SPC AC 200018

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0718 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2011

VALID 200100Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

CONVECTION IS EVOLVING IN LINE WITH EARLIER THINKING ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION WITH THE PRIMARY IMPEDIMENT FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BEING THE LIMITED INSTABILITY. EVEN SO A
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS
SHIFTING EAST AT ROUGHLY 30KT ACROSS NC WITH INDIVIDUAL CELLS RACING
NEWD UPWARDS OF 40KT. GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR AND WEAK INSTABILITY
IT APPEARS THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN MARGINAL BUT WORTHY
OF AT LEAST LOW SEVERE PROBS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ONGOING
CONVECTION WILL TRANSLATE TOWARD THE COAST WHERE INCREASING LLJ MAY
ENHANCE THE PROSPECT FOR LOCALLY STRONG DOWNBURSTS.

..DARROW.. 10/20/2011

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KMKX [200003]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMKX 200003
LSRMKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
702 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0636 PM NON-TSTM WND GST RACINE 42.73N 87.78W
10/19/2011 M53.00 MPH RACINE WI ASOS

RACINE ASOS-GUST TO 53 MPH AT 636 PM. SITE ID IS RAC.

&&

$$

BHAHN

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KMKX [192348]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMKX 192348
LSRMKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
648 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0410 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 E KENOSHA 42.58N 87.80W
10/19/2011 M54 MPH LMZ646 WI C-MAN STATION

410 PM DATA - WIND SPEED 44 MPH GUSTS TO 54 MPH. SITE ID
IS KNSW3.

&&

$$

BHAHN

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KMKX [192344]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMKX 192344
LSRMKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
644 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 E SHEBOYGAN 43.75N 87.69W
10/19/2011 M52.00 MPH LMZ643 WI C-MAN STATION

5 PM DATA-WIND SPEED 47 MPH GUSTS TO 52 MPH. SITE ID IS
SGNW3.

&&

$$

BHAHN

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KMKX [192344]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMKX 192344
LSRMKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
644 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 ENE MILWAUKEE 43.05N 87.88W
10/19/2011 M48.00 MPH MILWAUKEE WI C-MAN STATION

5 PM DATA - WIND SPEED 36 MPH GUSTS TO 48 MPH. SITE ID IS
MLWW3.

&&

$$

BHAHN

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KGRR [192332]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 192332
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
732 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0731 PM HEAVY RAIN TWIN LAKE 43.37N 86.17W
10/19/2011 M1.00 INCH MUSKEGON MI TRAINED SPOTTER

WIND GUST 42 TO 45 MPH. MEASURED.

&&

$$

RSUTTLE

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KMKX [192315]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMKX 192315
LSRMKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
614 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0547 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SW RACINE 42.70N 87.83W
10/19/2011 M51 MPH RACINE WI TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM SPOTTER IN MOUNT PLEASANT MEASURED 51 MPH ON HIS
HOME WEATHER STATION. SMALL TREE BRANCHES DOWN. LARGEST
BRANCH DOWN IS 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER. FREQUENT WIND GUSTS
41-51 MPH.

&&

$$

BHAHN

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KMKX [192302]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMKX 192302
LSRMKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
601 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 N SHEBOYGAN 43.78N 87.72W
10/19/2011 M51 MPH SHEBOYGAN WI MESONET

0500 PM NON-TSTM WND GST SHOREWOOD 43.09N 87.89W
10/19/2011 M45 MPH MILWAUKEE WI MESONET

0500 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 NE MILWAUKEE 43.06N 87.87W
10/19/2011 M47 MPH MILWAUKEE WI MESONET

0500 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 W RACINE 42.73N 87.80W
10/19/2011 M47 MPH RACINE WI MESONET

0540 PM NON-TSTM WND GST RACINE 42.73N 87.78W
10/19/2011 M46 MPH RACINE WI ASOS

&&

$$

BHAHN

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KLOT [192251]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLOT 192251
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
551 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 NE CHICAGO 41.92N 87.57W
10/19/2011 M59 MPH LMZ741 IL C-MAN STATION

51 KT GUST RECORDED AT HARRISON-DEVER CRIB. SUSTAINED
WINDS WERE 43 KT...OR 50 MPH.

&&

$$

RC

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KPBZ [192250]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KPBZ 192250
LSRPBZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
650 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 PM HEAVY RAIN NORWICH 39.98N 81.79W
10/19/2011 M3.10 INCH MUSKINGUM OH TRAINED SPOTTER

TOTAL RAINFALL SINCE MIDNIGHT

&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1101196

$$

RG

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KGRR [192231]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 192231
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
631 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 PM HEAVY RAIN BELLEVUE 42.44N 85.02W
10/19/2011 M0.61 INCH EATON MI TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL THROUGH 6 PM.

&&

$$

NJJ

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2267

ACUS11 KWNS 192226
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192226
MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-200030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2267
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0526 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC...SERN VA...SERN MD/DE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 192226Z - 200030Z

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE
REGION THROUGH EVENING. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT
CONTINUES TO BE LOW.

A LINE OF BROKEN CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS
CNTRL INTO SRN NC...ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT ALOFT. THESE
STORMS HAVE SHOWN SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL ROTATION AT TIMES...DRIVEN
BY THE COMBINATION OF STRONG FORCING AND AMPLE SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 3
KM.

OTHER STORMS WERE BEGINNING TO FORM OVER NERN NC...DEEPER INTO THE
SURFACE MOIST AXIS. HERE...LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS EVEN BETTER THAN
FARTHER SW.

THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH THE ENVIRONMENT IS THERMODYNAMIC IN
NATURE...WITH VERY POOR LOW TO MID LAPSE RATE PROFILES DUE TO LITTLE
SURFACE HEATING AND WARM AND DRY AIR ALOFT. INDEED...NONE OF THE
ONGOING CONVECTION EVEN HAS LIGHTNING...SUGGESTING UPDRAFT STRENGTH
IS WEAK AS WELL.

ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS QUITE WEAK...AND UPWARD
ACCELERATION/STRETCHING POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED...SOME OF THE
DEEPER STORMS MAY AT LEAST BE CAPABLE OF STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. A
WEAK/BRIEF TORNADO STILL MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY WITH THE DRYLINE
STORMS AS THEY CONTINUE NEWD INTO A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT.
HOWEVER...LOSS OF HEATING AS WELL AS WARMING ALOFT WILL WORK AGAINST
TORNADO POTENTIAL.

AS SUCH...A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

..JEWELL.. 10/19/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...

LAT...LON 34147883 34937899 35527912 36097879 37027798 37677720
38357669 38437574 38017515 37057581 36227562 35567541
35167546 34467662 34217744 34147883

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KRAH [192222]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KRAH 192222
LSRRAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
622 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0615 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 3 SSW BONNIE DOONE 35.05N 78.97W
10/19/2011 CUMBERLAND NC TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD EAST OF SKIBO RD IN
FAYETTEVILLE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1101469

$$

KC

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KPBZ [192216]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KPBZ 192216
LSRPBZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
616 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0613 PM HEAVY RAIN BLUE ROCK 39.80N 81.89W
10/19/2011 M2.10 INCH MUSKINGUM OH TRAINED SPOTTER

TOTAL RAINFALL SINCE 1015PM

&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1101195

$$

RG

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KRAH [192215]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KRAH 192215
LSRRAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
615 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0610 PM WALL CLOUD 4 SSW BONNIE DOONE 35.04N 78.98W
10/19/2011 CUMBERLAND NC TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORTED A RAPIDLY ROTATING WALL
CLOUD...HEADING EAST DOWN RAEFORD RD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1101468

$$

KC

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KLOT [192211]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLOT 192211
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
510 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1245 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 N CHICAGO 41.90N 87.63W
10/19/2011 COOK IL NEWSPAPER

WINDOWS BLOWN OUT OF THE 12TH FLOOR OF A BUILDING NEAR
WABASH AND CHICAGO AVENUE. REPORT RELAYED FROM THE ONLINE
TRIBUNE.

&&

$$

SSHEA

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KLOT [192158]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLOT 192158
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
458 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM HIGH SUST WINDS CHICAGO 41.88N 87.63W
10/19/2011 M40.00 MPH COOK IL PARK/FOREST SRVC

RECORDED AT CHICAGO PARK DISTRICT 63RD ST BEACH WEATHER
STATION.

&&

$$

RC

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KMKX [192157]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMKX 192157
LSRMKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
457 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0335 PM NON-TSTM WND GST MILWAUKEE INTERNATIONAL 42.94N 87.90W
10/19/2011 M47 MPH MILWAUKEE WI ASOS

&&

$$

MG

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KMKX [192156]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMKX 192156
LSRMKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
456 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0348 PM NON-TSTM WND GST RACINE BATTEN AIRPORT 42.76N 87.81W
10/19/2011 M45 MPH RACINE WI ASOS

&&

$$

MG

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KRAH [192148]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KRAH 192148
LSRRAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
548 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0543 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 3 S RAEFORD 34.93N 79.22W
10/19/2011 HOKE NC 911 CALL CENTER

PUBLIC REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1101467

$$

KC

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KGSP [192134]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 192134
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
534 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0504 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 E CONCORD 35.41N 80.56W
10/19/2011 CABARRUS NC OTHER FEDERAL

A ROBINSON R22 HELICOPTER WAS BLOWN OVER ONTO ITS SIDE.A
TIED DOWN AIRPLANE WAS LIFTED UP NEARBY...BUT RETURNED TO
ITS ORIGINAL POSITION.

&&

$$

KRENTZ

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KIWX [192118]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 192118
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
518 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0455 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 SE WARSAW 41.21N 85.81W
10/19/2011 M1.92 INCH KOSCIUSKO IN COCORAHS

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL. ONE INCH OF RAIN SINCE NOON.

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX1101411

$$

NDM

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KLCH [192017]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 192017
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
317 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0115 PM WILDFIRE 4 NE VIDOR 30.17N 93.96W
10/19/2011 ORANGE TX FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

ONE MOBILE HOME DESTROYED.

0150 PM WILDFIRE 1 SSE KOUNTZE 30.36N 94.31W
10/19/2011 HARDIN TX BROADCAST MEDIA

WILDFIRE NEAR KOUNTZE SPREADING QUICKLY.

&&

$$

JB

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KMFL [192008]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 192008
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
408 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0725 PM TORNADO LAKEPORT 26.98N 81.13W
10/18/2011 GLADES FL NWS STORM SURVEY

EF-0 TORNADO CONFIRMED BY NWS SURVEY IN LAKEPORT WITH
MAXIMUM WINDS ESTIMATED AT 85 MPH. PATH LENGTH 1.5 MILES
WITH A WIDTH OF 50 YARDS. ABOUT 30 MANUFACTURED HOMES
DAMAGED. DAMAGE WAS MOSTLY MINOR WITH SIDING PEELED OFF,
SOME ROOF DAMAGE AND TREE DAMAGE.

&&

$$

GREGORIA

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2266

ACUS11 KWNS 191947
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191946
NCZ000-SCZ000-192115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2266
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0246 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SC AND SERN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 191946Z - 192115Z

SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING IN A NARROW WEDGE OF CLEARING BETWEEN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST AND A NEAR STATIONARY WARM FRONT
TO THE NORTH. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THESE SHOWERS WILL STRUGGLE TO
DEVELOP INTO ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS AND MAY PRODUCE VERY LITTLE
LIGHTNING. HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.

CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE
UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S...SBCAPE VALUES
HAVE CLIMBED TO AROUND 500-1000 J/KG IN A NARROW WEDGE FROM ERN SC
TO SERN NC. WHILE SFC MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT...WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT QUITE A BIT OF MID
LEVEL DRYING HAS OCCURRED TODAY. SO...DESPITE ADEQUATE FORCING FOR
ASCENT DUE TO APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL JET NOSING INTO
THE REGION...SHOWERS/STROMS WILL REMAIN VERY SHALLOW. HOWEVER...LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASING TO AROUND 6.5 C/KM AND SFC-3KM SHEAR
VALUES NEAR 50 KT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG WIND
GUSTS WITH THE MORE ROBUST CELLS.

..LEITMAN.. 10/19/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON 35347807 34957878 34817943 34798025 34738089 34338081
33538040 32697995 33077920 34567717 34787687 35057682
35247693 35377705 35467737 35497771 35347807

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 191944
SWODY1
SPC AC 191942

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0242 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2011

VALID 192000Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...20Z OUTLOOK UPDATE...

...MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO UPPER OHIO VALLEY/LWR GREAT LAKES...
SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING/INCREASING ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS
IT BEGINS TO ADVANCE EASTWARD/NORTHEASTWARD TO THE LEE OF THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE MOST VIGOROUS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE
OCCURRING WHERE THE COLD FRONT IS OVERTAKING A WEAK LINGERING
FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL
PLAIN. WHILE LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING ON STRENGTHENING PRE-FRONTAL
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO EASTERN
VIRGINIA AND THE DELMARVA PENINSULA IS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONSIDERABLE MID/HIGH
LEVEL WARMING WILL OCCUR EAST OF AN INTENSIFYING CYCLONIC UPPER JET
TO THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. IT IS SEEMING INCREASINGLY LESS
LIKELY THAT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO REACH THE
FAVORABLE MIXED PHASE LAYER FOR CHARGE SEPARATION...AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS COULD STILL ENHANCE THE
DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF MOMENTUM FROM ALOFT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN LATER THIS EVENING...WHERE/WHEN 850 MB
FLOW MAY STRENGTHEN TO 40-50+ KT.

HIGHEST THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES OVER INLAND AREAS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD APPEAR TO EXIST LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO WESTERN NEW
YORK STATE. THIS IS WHERE FORCING IN THE EXIT REGION OF THE
INTENSIFYING UPPER JET MAY ENHANCE LIFT AND DESTABILIZATION
NORTHEAST OF THE DEEPENING OHIO VALLEY SURFACE CYCLONE...NEAR AND
NORTH OF AN ASSOCIATED OCCLUDING FRONTAL ZONE.

..KERR.. 10/19/2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CDT WED OCT 19 2011/

...MID ATLANTIC STATES...
THE DEEP UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WILL BEGIN
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE THE
PRIMARY SURFACE COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. TWO
PERIODS OF SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY.

THE FIRST PERIOD IS NOW ONGOING ALONG THE COAST OF EASTERN NC.
INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING JUST OFFSHORE ALONG SURFACE
BOUNDARY AND IN REGION OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. THESE STORMS
MAY THREATEN THE OUTER BANKS OF NC THIS AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS THE
NEAR-SHORE AREAS OF EASTERN MD AND NJ. STRONGER CELLS IN THIS
CORRIDOR WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS OR A TORNADO/ WATERSPOUT.
THIS THREAT SHOULD END BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON AS THE PRIMARY LIFT
MOVES OUT TO SEA.

THE SECONDARY POTENTIAL THREAT WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER NORTHERN GA ROTATES INTO NC/VA. ENHANCED
ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS LIKELY TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ONE OF THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS INVOLVES
THE WEDGE FRONT THAT IS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...AND IS NOT LIKELY
TO BE SCOURED AWAY EXCEPT FOR EASTERN VA/NC. THERE APPEARS TO BE A
CORRIDOR FROM NORTH CENTRAL NC INTO NORTHEAST VA WHERE A COMBINATION
OF SURFACE-BASED STORMS AND FAVORABLE TIMING OF THE UPPER WAVE WILL
SUPPORT A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS HAIL. EVEN IN THIS
AREA HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE AMOUNT OF DAYTIME
HEATING MAY OCCUR AND THE RESULTANT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE PROFILE.
NEVERTHELESS...WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS SCENARIO.

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