SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192226
MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-200030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2267
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0526 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC...SERN VA...SERN MD/DE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 192226Z - 200030Z
A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE
REGION THROUGH EVENING. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT
CONTINUES TO BE LOW.
A LINE OF BROKEN CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS
CNTRL INTO SRN NC...ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT ALOFT. THESE
STORMS HAVE SHOWN SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL ROTATION AT TIMES...DRIVEN
BY THE COMBINATION OF STRONG FORCING AND AMPLE SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 3
KM.
OTHER STORMS WERE BEGINNING TO FORM OVER NERN NC...DEEPER INTO THE
SURFACE MOIST AXIS. HERE...LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS EVEN BETTER THAN
FARTHER SW.
THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH THE ENVIRONMENT IS THERMODYNAMIC IN
NATURE...WITH VERY POOR LOW TO MID LAPSE RATE PROFILES DUE TO LITTLE
SURFACE HEATING AND WARM AND DRY AIR ALOFT. INDEED...NONE OF THE
ONGOING CONVECTION EVEN HAS LIGHTNING...SUGGESTING UPDRAFT STRENGTH
IS WEAK AS WELL.
ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS QUITE WEAK...AND UPWARD
ACCELERATION/STRETCHING POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED...SOME OF THE
DEEPER STORMS MAY AT LEAST BE CAPABLE OF STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. A
WEAK/BRIEF TORNADO STILL MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY WITH THE DRYLINE
STORMS AS THEY CONTINUE NEWD INTO A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT.
HOWEVER...LOSS OF HEATING AS WELL AS WARMING ALOFT WILL WORK AGAINST
TORNADO POTENTIAL.
AS SUCH...A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
..JEWELL.. 10/19/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...
LAT...LON 34147883 34937899 35527912 36097879 37027798 37677720
38357669 38437574 38017515 37057581 36227562 35567541
35167546 34467662 34217744 34147883
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