DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 170041
SWODY1
SPC AC 170040

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0740 PM CDT WED OCT 16 2013

VALID 170100Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...PORTIONS OF SRN LA/MS...
A FEW SHOWERS ALONG A SEWD-MOVING COLD FRONT MAY YET DEEPEN INTO A
TSTM OR TWO TONIGHT. 00Z LCH RAOB SAMPLED A THINLY BUOYANT AIR MASS
NEAR THE FRONT...CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE AROUND 750 J/KG. WITH
MINIMAL INFLUENCE FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER KS/OK SHIFTING TO THE
MID-MO VALLEY...WEAK LOWER-LEVEL FLOW/CONVERGENCE SHOULD HINDER ANY
APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. GIVEN POOR DOWNSTREAM
LAPSE RATES /PER 00Z JAN RAOB/...ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT /IF IT OCCURS
AT ALL/ SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND LIMITED IN SPATIAL EXTENT.

..GRAMS.. 10/17/2013

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KCHS [170026]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 170026
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
826 PM EDT WED OCT 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0654 PM HIGH ASTR TIDES 1 E CHARLESTON 32.78N 79.93W
10/16/2013 CHARLESTON SC TIDE GAGE

A MAXIMUM TIDE LEVEL OF 7.21 FT MLLW WAS OBSERVED AT
THE CHARLESTON HARBOR TIDE GAGE. SHALLOW COASTAL
FLOODING TYPICALLY BEGINS ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST WHEN TIDE LEVELS REACH 7.0 FT MLLW IN THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR.


&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1300930

$$

TIMTE

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KPUB [162153]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KPUB 162153
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
352 PM MDT WED OCT 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0254 PM SNOW 5 NE SPANISH PEAKS 37.43N 104.90W
10/16/2013 M4.0 INCH HUERFANO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0.30 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT

0141 PM SNOW 2 SSW CUCHARA 37.35N 105.11W
10/16/2013 M6.0 INCH HUERFANO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0923 AM SNOW BEULAH 38.08N 104.98W
10/16/2013 M4.6 INCH PUEBLO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0915 AM SNOW 5 SSE CRESTONE 37.93N 105.67W
10/16/2013 M3.0 INCH SAGUACHE CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0911 AM SNOW 1 SSE WOLF CREEK PASS 37.47N 106.79W
10/16/2013 M3.0 INCH MINERAL CO PUBLIC

REPORTED BY WOLF CREEK SKI AREA.

0843 AM SNOW 7 ESE TEXAS CREEK 38.37N 105.46W
10/16/2013 M2.2 INCH FREMONT CO TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL WITH .18 LIQUID.

0800 AM SNOW 5 W WESTCLIFFE 38.13N 105.56W
10/16/2013 M6.0 INCH CUSTER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0750 AM SNOW ROSITA 38.10N 105.33W
10/16/2013 M5.0 INCH CUSTER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0730 AM SNOW 5 NNE SPANISH PEAKS 37.45N 104.92W
10/16/2013 M4.5 INCH HUERFANO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0730 AM SNOW 1 S BEULAH 38.07N 104.98W
10/16/2013 M5.0 INCH PUEBLO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0729 AM HEAVY SNOW 1 SSW RYE 37.91N 104.94W
10/16/2013 M13.2 INCH PUEBLO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

.68 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT.

0700 AM SNOW 2 WSW ROSITA 38.09N 105.36W
10/16/2013 M5.5 INCH CUSTER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL

0630 AM SNOW 7 E COLORADO CITY 37.95N 104.72W
10/16/2013 E3.5 INCH PUEBLO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

1138 PM SNOW 2 W RYE 37.92N 104.97W
10/15/2013 E8.0 INCH PUEBLO CO NWS EMPLOYEE

0900 PM SNOW 1 SSW RYE 37.91N 104.94W
10/15/2013 M4.5 INCH PUEBLO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0859 PM SNOW 1 S RYE 37.91N 104.93W
10/15/2013 E4.0 INCH PUEBLO CO PUBLIC

ON GRASSY SURFACES 1 INCH COLLECTING ON ROADWAYS.


&&

$$

KT

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KPUB [162131]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 162131
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
331 PM MDT WED OCT 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0911 AM SNOW 1 SSE WOLF CREEK PASS 37.47N 106.79W
10/16/2013 M3.0 INCH MINERAL CO PUBLIC

REPORTED BY WOLF CREEK SKI AREA.


&&

$$

KT

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KPUB [162055]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 162055
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
255 PM MDT WED OCT 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0254 PM SNOW 5 NE SPANISH PEAKS 37.43N 104.90W
10/16/2013 M4.0 INCH HUERFANO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0.30 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT


&&

$$

PPERALES

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KSGX [162022]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSGX 162022
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
121 PM PDT WED OCT 16 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0252 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 ESE ALPINE 32.83N 116.74W
10/16/2013 M37 MPH SAN DIEGO CA MESONET

MESONET STATION ALPINE /ANEC1/



&&

$$

NWS SAN DIEGO CA
IRIS SYSTEM

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KSGX [162021]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSGX 162021
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
121 PM PDT WED OCT 16 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0116 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 SSE BEAUMONT 33.88N 116.95W
10/16/2013 M37 MPH RIVERSIDE CA MESONET

MESONET STATION HIGHLAND SPRINGS /HSGC1/



&&

$$

NWS SAN DIEGO CA
IRIS SYSTEM

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KPUB [162021]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 162021
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
221 PM MDT WED OCT 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW 5 W WESTCLIFFE 38.13N 105.56W
10/16/2013 M6.0 INCH CUSTER CO TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

PPERALES

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KSGX [162019]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSGX 162019
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
118 PM PDT WED OCT 16 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 9 SSW JULIAN 32.95N 116.64W
10/16/2013 M47 MPH SAN DIEGO CA MESONET

MESONET STATION SILL HILL /SILSD/



&&

$$

NWS SAN DIEGO CA
IRIS SYSTEM

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KSGX [162017]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSGX 162017
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
117 PM PDT WED OCT 16 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0851 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 ENE TUSTIN FOOTHILLS 33.81N 117.71W
10/16/2013 M53 MPH ORANGE CA MESONET

MESONET STATION FREMONT CANYON /FRCC1/



&&

$$

NWS SAN DIEGO CA
IRIS SYSTEM

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KGJT [161956]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 161956
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
156 PM MDT WED OCT 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM SNOW 11 S CIMMARON 38.29N 107.55W
10/16/2013 M4.5 INCH GUNNISON CO COCORAHS

24 HOUR SNOWFALL


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1301736

$$

DC

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KPUB [161944]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 161944
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
144 PM MDT WED OCT 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0141 PM SNOW 2 SSW CUCHARA 37.35N 105.11W
10/16/2013 M6.0 INCH HUERFANO CO TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

PPERALES

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 161943
SWODY1
SPC AC 161940

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0240 PM CDT WED OCT 16 2013

VALID 162000Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...20Z OUTLOOK UPDATE...

...GULF STATES...
A SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING BOUNDARY INTERSECTION OVER DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...IT NOW APPEARS THAT
LOWER/MID-LEVEL INHIBITION PROBABLY WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF SUBSTANTIVE
MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION. IT STILL DOES NOT
APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT...AS A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE
IMPULSE TURNS EAST NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...THROUGH THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
COULD STILL OCCUR ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA
THROUGH PARTS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. HOWEVER...
PROBABILITIES APPEAR GENERALLY LOW.

...LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BECOME EVIDENT WITH A NARROW BROKEN
FRONTAL/PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
LAKE ERIE/NORTHEASTERN OHIO AREA. HOWEVER...STRONGER MID/UPPER
FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION SPREADING ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN QUEBEC IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

..KERR.. 10/16/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013/

CORRECTED FOR NDFD GRAPHICS

...SYNOPSIS...

A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE CONUS WITH
A BELT OF ENHANCED MID AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW STRETCHING FROM THE SRN
PLAINS TO NERN STATES. A COUPLE OF MORE DISTINCT VORTICITY MAXIMA
ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS HIGH MOMENTUM AIR STREAM...ONE OF WHICH
WILL TRACK FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO SRN QUEBEC...AND ANOTHER
WHICH WILL TRANSLATE FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO MID MS
VALLEY.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONT INITIALLY FROM SWRN ONTARIO/LOWER
GREAT LAKES TO TX GULF COAST WILL ADVANCE EWD/SEWD TO THE
APPALACHIANS AND CNTRL GULF COAST BY THU MORNING. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION IN LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE THAT A FRONTAL WAVE MAY FORM
OVER THE LOWER SABINE VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THIS FEATURE
DEVELOPING NEWD TO NWRN AL BY 17/12Z.

...LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

BOTH LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. AND WHILE
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT --AND WITHIN
THE MIDLEVEL DRY SLOT-- MAY YIELD POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING...POOR
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL MOISTURE CONTENT WILL LIMIT THE
DEGREE OF AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION. A FEW LOW-TOPPED TSTMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON...BUT THE PROSPECT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED BY THE WEAK INSTABILITY.

...SRN TX TO LOWER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW THE PRESENCE OF A SEASONABLY MOIST AIR MASS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S AND PW VALUES OF 1.6-2.0 INCHES. SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...A
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME --AND RESULTANT MULTI-LAYER CLOUDS--
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF OCTAVE WILL LIMIT HEATING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. MOREOVER...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE OBSERVED TO BE
QUITE WEAK WHICH WILL LIMIT THE DEGREE OF AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION
LATER TODAY.

LATEST CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE AND EARLY INDICATIONS IN
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT TSTMS MAY EVOLVE THIS
AFTERNOON WITHIN NE-SW ORIENTED PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE BANDS FROM
THE LOWER SABINE VALLEY TO CNTRL/SRN MS. THE POOR LAPSE RATES AND
RESULTING WEAK INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER.

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KCHS [161935]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 161935
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
334 PM EDT WED OCT 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES 2 NE WILMINGTON ISLAND 32.04N 80.96W
10/16/2013 CHATHAM GA LAW ENFORCEMENT

TYBEE ISLAND POLICE DEPARTMENT REPORTED MINOR FLOODING
OF SALTWATER DUE TO HIGH TIDES ON HIGHWAY 80 NEAR BULL
RIVER BRIDGE.


&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1300929

$$

TIMTE

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KFGF [161820]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KFGF 161820
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
120 PM CDT WED OCT 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 WSW MAVIE 48.13N 96.00W
10/16/2013 M1.13 INCH PENNINGTON MN MESONET

STORM TOTAL - NDAWN STATION

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 N LEONARD 46.72N 97.25W
10/16/2013 M1.71 INCH CASS ND MESONET

STORM TOTAL - NDAWN STATION

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 E LANGDON 48.76N 98.35W
10/16/2013 M0.60 INCH CAVALIER ND MESONET

STORM TOTAL - NDAWN STATION

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 S HUMBOLDT 48.86N 97.09W
10/16/2013 M0.52 INCH KITTSON MN MESONET

STORM TOTAL - NDAWN STATION

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 7 SE HILLSBORO 47.33N 96.96W
10/16/2013 M1.61 INCH TRAILL ND MESONET

STORM TOTAL - NDAWN STATION

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 7 W GREENBUSH 48.70N 96.34W
10/16/2013 M0.70 INCH ROSEAU MN MESONET

STORM TOTAL - NDAWN STATION

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 S GRAND FORKS 47.87N 97.07W
10/16/2013 M1.17 INCH GRAND FORKS ND MESONET

STORM TOTAL - NDAWN STATION

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 10 E GRAFTON 48.41N 97.19W
10/16/2013 M0.95 INCH WALSH ND MESONET

STORM TOTAL - NDAWN STATION

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 E PERLEY 47.18N 96.67W
10/16/2013 M1.76 INCH NORMAN MN MESONET

STORM TOTAL - NDAWN STATION

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 10 E NEW ROCKFORD 47.68N 98.92W
10/16/2013 M1.63 INCH EDDY ND MESONET

STORM TOTAL - NDAWN STATION

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 N PILLSBURY 47.22N 97.80W
10/16/2013 M1.70 INCH BARNES ND MESONET

STORM TOTAL - NDAWN STATION

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 NW PROSPER 47.01N 97.09W
10/16/2013 M1.84 INCH CASS ND MESONET

STORM TOTAL - NDAWN STATION

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 11 S ROSEAU 48.69N 95.76W
10/16/2013 M0.42 INCH ROSEAU MN MESONET

STORM TOTAL - NDAWN STATION

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 NE SABIN 46.80N 96.62W
10/16/2013 M2.00 INCH CLAY MN MESONET

STORM TOTAL - NDAWN STATION

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 WSW ST. THOMAS 48.61N 97.49W
10/16/2013 M0.93 INCH PEMBINA ND MESONET

STORM TOTAL - NDAWN STATION

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 NE STEPHEN 48.46N 96.86W
10/16/2013 M0.82 INCH MARSHALL MN MESONET

STORM TOTAL - NDAWN STATION

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 NNW WAHPETON 46.35N 96.66W
10/16/2013 M2.12 INCH RICHLAND ND MESONET

STORM TOTAL - NDAWN STATION

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 SW WARREN 48.13N 96.86W
10/16/2013 M1.10 INCH POLK MN MESONET

STORM TOTAL - NDAWN STATION

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 E WYNDMERE 46.26N 97.09W
10/16/2013 M2.27 INCH RICHLAND ND MESONET

STORM TOTAL - NDAWN STATION

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 E MAYVILLE 47.50N 97.29W
10/16/2013 M1.60 INCH TRAILL ND MESONET

STORM TOTAL - NDAWN STATION

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 SSW GALESBURG 47.22N 97.44W
10/16/2013 M1.84 INCH CASS ND MESONET

STORM TOTAL - NDAWN STATION

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 W FINGAL 46.76N 97.88W
10/16/2013 M2.08 INCH BARNES ND MESONET

STORM TOTAL - NDAWN STATION

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 W ELDRED 47.68N 96.82W
10/16/2013 M1.39 INCH POLK MN MESONET

STORM TOTAL - NDAWN STATION

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 E DAZEY 47.19N 98.16W
10/16/2013 M1.30 INCH BARNES ND MESONET

STORM TOTAL - NDAWN STATION

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 E CRARY 48.07N 98.62W
10/16/2013 M1.07 INCH RAMSEY ND MESONET

STORM TOTAL - NDAWN STATION

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 SW CAVALIER 48.73N 97.72W
10/16/2013 M0.93 INCH PEMBINA ND MESONET

STORM TOTAL - NDAWN STATION

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 SE CANDO 48.47N 99.17W
10/16/2013 M1.03 INCH TOWNER ND MESONET

STORNM TOTAL - NDAWN STATION

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 N ADA 47.31N 96.51W
10/16/2013 E1.49 INCH NORMAN MN MESONET

STORM TOTAL - NDAWN STATION

1014 AM HEAVY RAIN CROOKSTON 47.77N 96.61W
10/16/2013 M1.25 INCH POLK MN PUBLIC

STORM TOTAL

1014 AM HEAVY RAIN 8 N BLACKDUCK 47.84N 94.55W
10/16/2013 M1.50 INCH BELTRAMI MN PUBLIC

1014 AM HEAVY RAIN COLFAX 46.47N 96.87W
10/16/2013 M1.68 INCH RICHLAND ND PUBLIC

STORM TOTAL

1014 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 E NOME 46.68N 97.75W
10/16/2013 M1.80 INCH BARNES ND PUBLIC

STORM TOTAL

1014 AM HEAVY RAIN HORACE 46.76N 96.90W
10/16/2013 M2.25 INCH CASS ND PUBLIC

STORM TOTAL

1014 AM HEAVY RAIN WSW KINDRED 46.65N 97.02W
10/16/2013 M1.83 INCH CASS ND PUBLIC

STORM TOTAL

1014 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 SW HILLSBORO 47.37N 97.11W
10/16/2013 M1.55 INCH TRAILL ND PUBLIC

STORM TOTAL

1014 AM HEAVY RAIN FRAZEE 46.73N 95.70W
10/16/2013 M1.75 INCH BECKER MN PUBLIC

STORM TOTAL

1014 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 E FORT RANSOM 46.52N 97.85W
10/16/2013 M2.00 INCH RANSOM ND PUBLIC

STORM TOTAL

1014 AM HEAVY RAIN ENDERLIN 46.62N 97.60W
10/16/2013 M1.78 INCH RANSOM ND PUBLIC

STORM TOTAL


&&

$$

DRIDDLE

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KABQ [161807]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KABQ 161807
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1207 PM MDT WED OCT 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 ESE ALBUQUERQUE 35.07N 106.50W
10/15/2013 M66 MPH BERNALILLO NM MESONET

EMBUDO CANYON.

1000 PM SNOW TESUQUE 35.76N 105.93W
10/15/2013 E5.0 INCH SANTA FE NM PUBLIC

0500 AM SNOW 6 ESE MOGOLLON 33.36N 108.70W
10/16/2013 E2.0 INCH CATRON NM OTHER FEDERAL

SILVER CREEK DIVIDE SNOTEL.

0500 AM SNOW 11 WSW BLUEWATER LAKE 35.23N 108.26W
10/16/2013 E1.0 INCH CIBOLA NM OTHER FEDERAL

RICE PARK SNOTEL.

0500 AM SNOW 8 SE EAGLE NEST 36.46N 105.17W
10/16/2013 E9.0 INCH COLFAX NM OTHER FEDERAL

TOLBY SNOTEL.

0500 AM SNOW 11 ENE RED RIVER 36.78N 105.23W
10/16/2013 E4.0 INCH COLFAX NM OTHER FEDERAL

SHUREE SNOTEL.

0500 AM SNOW 5 ESE RED RIVER 36.68N 105.33W
10/16/2013 E4.0 INCH COLFAX NM OTHER FEDERAL

RED RIVER PASS SNOTEL.

0500 AM SNOW 5 SW BONITO LAKE 33.40N 105.78W
10/16/2013 E1.0 INCH LINCOLN NM OTHER FEDERAL

SIERRA BLANCA SNOTEL.

0500 AM SNOW 5 WNW LOS ALAMOS 35.91N 106.38W
10/16/2013 E2.0 INCH LOS ALAMOS NM OTHER FEDERAL

QUEMAZON SNOTEL.

0500 AM SNOW 5 SSW TOADLENA 36.17N 108.93W
10/16/2013 E1.0 INCH SAN JUAN NM OTHER FEDERAL

NAVAJO WHISKEY CREEK SNOTEL.

0500 AM SNOW 8 SW ROCIADA 35.76N 105.53W
10/16/2013 E3.0 INCH SAN MIGUEL NM OTHER FEDERAL

WESNER SPRINGS SNOTEL.

0500 AM SNOW 6 WNW TERERRO 35.76N 105.78W
10/16/2013 E1.0 INCH SANTA FE NM OTHER FEDERAL

SANTA FE SNOTEL.

0500 AM SNOW 8 NE ARROYO SECO 36.58N 105.45W
10/16/2013 E9.0 INCH TAOS NM OTHER FEDERAL

TAOS POWDERHORN SNOTEL.

0500 AM SNOW 4 NNW TRES RITOS 36.18N 105.55W
10/16/2013 E4.0 INCH TAOS NM OTHER FEDERAL

GALLEGOS PEAK SNOTEL.

0600 AM SNOW 6 W LOS ALAMOS 35.89N 106.39W
10/16/2013 E5.0 INCH LOS ALAMOS NM PUBLIC

PAJARITO SKI AREA.

0635 AM SNOW 4 ESE BLACK LAKE 36.28N 105.19W
10/16/2013 M6.7 INCH COLFAX NM TRAINED SPOTTER

0700 AM SNOW EAGLE NEST 36.56N 105.26W
10/16/2013 M10.0 INCH COLFAX NM CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM SNOW CHAMA 36.89N 106.58W
10/16/2013 M1.5 INCH RIO ARRIBA NM CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM SNOW 1 WNW RED RIVER 36.71N 105.42W
10/16/2013 M4.0 INCH TAOS NM CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM SNOW 2 SE MANZANO 34.62N 106.31W
10/16/2013 M4.0 INCH TORRANCE NM CO-OP OBSERVER

0800 AM SNOW 4 NNW TAOS 36.44N 105.60W
10/16/2013 M2.6 INCH TAOS NM TRAINED SPOTTER

0915 AM SNOW 1 W LOS ALAMOS 35.89N 106.33W
10/16/2013 M2.0 INCH LOS ALAMOS NM COCORAHS

0915 AM SNOW 10 SSE ANGEL FIRE 36.25N 105.21W
10/16/2013 M6.7 INCH MORA NM COCORAHS

0915 AM SNOW 4 NNW EDGEWOOD 35.12N 106.22W
10/16/2013 M1.0 INCH SANTA FE NM COCORAHS

0915 AM SNOW 2 NNE QUESTA 36.74N 105.58W
10/16/2013 M3.0 INCH TAOS NM COCORAHS

0915 AM SNOW 3 NW TAOS PUEBLO 36.47N 105.59W
10/16/2013 M1.0 INCH TAOS NM COCORAHS

0915 AM SNOW 3 NW EL PRADO 36.46N 105.61W
10/16/2013 M2.6 INCH TAOS NM COCORAHS

0915 AM SNOW 5 E TIJERAS 35.09N 106.29W
10/16/2013 M1.1 INCH BERNALILLO NM COCORAHS


&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1301451 ABQ1301440 ABQ1301425 ABQ1301426 ABQ1301429
ABQ1301430 ABQ1301431 ABQ1301432 ABQ1301433 ABQ1301438 ABQ1301439
ABQ1301441 ABQ1301448 ABQ1301449 ABQ1301434 ABQ1301428 ABQ1301427
ABQ1301437 ABQ1301447 ABQ1301450 ABQ1301446 ABQ1301435 ABQ1301436
ABQ1301442 ABQ1301443 ABQ1301444 ABQ1301445 ABQ1301452

$$

SHY

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 161721
SWODY2
SPC AC 161720

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 PM CDT WED OCT 16 2013

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
DOWNSTREAM OF A BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE...WHICH HAS BECOME MORE
PROMINENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW
WILL PREVAIL FROM THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES EAST
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND NORTHERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD
DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS LATTER REGIME WILL CONTAIN A
NUMBER OF PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE IMPULSES...A COUPLE OF WHICH MAY
ENHANCE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ALONG A
FRONTAL ZONE SLOWLY ADVANCING EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD...AND NEAR ANOTHER DEVELOPING FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS
THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS

AT THE SAME TIME...SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH APPEARS LIKELY
TO WEAKEN SOME...BUT IS STILL EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN SUBSTANTIVE
INFLUENCE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A
PERTURBATION MIGRATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO ANOTHER AREA OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT
ALONG THE STALLED SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE EAST COAST
FRONT...ACROSS PARTS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY LATE THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY NIGHT.

AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEAR TO EXIST
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SCATTERED AREAS OF ENHANCED FORCING FOR
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION. HOWEVER...DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO BE
QUITE WEAK...WITH GENERALLY NEGLIGIBLE SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL.

...APPALACHIANS/ATLANTIC SEABOARD...
LOW THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA INTO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS APPEAR MOSTLY IN THE 17/12-18Z TIME
FRAME...BEFORE MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT WEAKENS/SHIFTS NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION...ASSOCIATED WITH THE EAST NORTHEAST PROGRESSION OF A
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS ARE
SUGGESTIVE THAT THIS IMPULSE COULD AGAIN CONTRIBUTE TO MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE PROFILES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOWARD THE 17/21-18/03Z
TIME FRAME...MAINLY NEAR AND NORTH/EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS.

...SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
IT APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT A WEAK RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE TO A
STRENGTHENING LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION REGIME COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY TOWARD THE 18/09-12Z TIME FRAME ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AND NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA.

...DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANYING THE SUBTROPICAL
IMPULSE APPEARS TO EXIST ALONG IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS...AND IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS AFTER 18/06Z.

..KERR.. 10/16/2013

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KPUB [161639]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KPUB 161639
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1039 AM MDT WED OCT 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0923 AM SNOW BEULAH 38.08N 104.98W
10/16/2013 M4.6 INCH PUEBLO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0915 AM SNOW 5 SSE CRESTONE 37.93N 105.67W
10/16/2013 M3.0 INCH SAGUACHE CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0843 AM SNOW 7 ESE TEXAS CREEK 38.37N 105.46W
10/16/2013 M2.2 INCH FREMONT CO TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL WITH .18 LIQUID.

0750 AM SNOW ROSITA 38.10N 105.33W
10/16/2013 M5.0 INCH CUSTER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0730 AM SNOW 1 S BEULAH 38.07N 104.98W
10/16/2013 M5.0 INCH PUEBLO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0730 AM SNOW 5 NNE SPANISH PEAKS 37.45N 104.92W
10/16/2013 M4.5 INCH HUERFANO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0729 AM HEAVY SNOW 1 SSW RYE 37.91N 104.94W
10/16/2013 M13.2 INCH PUEBLO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

.68 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT.

0700 AM SNOW 2 WSW ROSITA 38.09N 105.36W
10/16/2013 M5.5 INCH CUSTER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL

0630 AM SNOW 7 E COLORADO CITY 37.95N 104.72W
10/16/2013 E3.5 INCH PUEBLO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

1138 PM SNOW 2 W RYE 37.92N 104.97W
10/15/2013 E8.0 INCH PUEBLO CO NWS EMPLOYEE

0900 PM SNOW 1 SSW RYE 37.91N 104.94W
10/15/2013 M4.5 INCH PUEBLO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0859 PM SNOW 1 S RYE 37.91N 104.93W
10/15/2013 E4.0 INCH PUEBLO CO PUBLIC

ON GRASSY SURFACES 1 INCH COLLECTING ON ROADWAYS.


&&

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE SEPARATED INTO SNOW...AND ICE AND SLEET
CATEGORIES...THEN BY AMOUNT...AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE
FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION.


SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
13.20 1 SSW RYE CO PUEBLO 0729 AM
.68 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT.
8.00 2 W RYE CO PUEBLO 1138 PM
5.50 2 WSW ROSITA CO CUSTER 0700 AM
24 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL
5.00 1 S BEULAH CO PUEBLO 0730 AM
5.00 ROSITA CO CUSTER 0750 AM
4.60 BEULAH CO PUEBLO 0923 AM
4.50 1 SSW RYE CO PUEBLO 0900 PM
4.50 5 NNE SPANISH PEAKS CO HUERFANO 0730 AM
4.00 1 S RYE CO PUEBLO 0859 PM
ON GRASSY SURFACES 1 INCH COLLECTING ON
ROADWAYS.
3.50 7 E COLORADO CITY CO PUEBLO 0630 AM
3.00 5 SSE CRESTONE CO SAGUACHE 0915 AM
2.20 7 ESE TEXAS CREEK CO FREMONT 0843 AM
24 HOUR TOTAL WITH .18 LIQUID.

$$

KT

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KPUB [161639]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KPUB 161639
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1039 AM MDT WED OCT 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0923 AM SNOW BEULAH 38.08N 104.98W
10/16/2013 M4.6 INCH PUEBLO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0915 AM SNOW 5 SSE CRESTONE 37.93N 105.67W
10/16/2013 M3.0 INCH SAGUACHE CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0843 AM SNOW 7 ESE TEXAS CREEK 38.37N 105.46W
10/16/2013 M2.2 INCH FREMONT CO TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL WITH .18 LIQUID.

0750 AM SNOW ROSITA 38.10N 105.33W
10/16/2013 M5.0 INCH CUSTER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0730 AM SNOW 1 S BEULAH 38.07N 104.98W
10/16/2013 M5.0 INCH PUEBLO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0730 AM SNOW 5 NNE SPANISH PEAKS 37.45N 104.92W
10/16/2013 M4.5 INCH HUERFANO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0729 AM HEAVY SNOW 1 SSW RYE 37.91N 104.94W
10/16/2013 M13.2 INCH PUEBLO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

.68 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT.

0700 AM SNOW 2 WSW ROSITA 38.09N 105.36W
10/16/2013 M5.5 INCH CUSTER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL

0630 AM SNOW 7 E COLORADO CITY 37.95N 104.72W
10/16/2013 E3.5 INCH PUEBLO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

1138 PM SNOW 2 W RYE 37.92N 104.97W
10/15/2013 E8.0 INCH PUEBLO CO NWS EMPLOYEE

0900 PM SNOW 1 SSW RYE 37.91N 104.94W
10/15/2013 M4.5 INCH PUEBLO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0859 PM SNOW 1 S RYE 37.91N 104.93W
10/15/2013 E4.0 INCH PUEBLO CO PUBLIC

ON GRASSY SURFACES 1 INCH COLLECTING ON ROADWAYS.


&&

$$

KT

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook Resent 1

ACUS01 KWNS 161634
SWODY1
SPC AC 161632

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013

VALID 161630Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

CORRECTED FOR NDFD GRAPHICS

...SYNOPSIS...

A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE CONUS WITH
A BELT OF ENHANCED MID AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW STRETCHING FROM THE SRN
PLAINS TO NERN STATES. A COUPLE OF MORE DISTINCT VORTICITY MAXIMA
ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS HIGH MOMENTUM AIR STREAM...ONE OF WHICH
WILL TRACK FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO SRN QUEBEC...AND ANOTHER
WHICH WILL TRANSLATE FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO MID MS
VALLEY.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONT INITIALLY FROM SWRN ONTARIO/LOWER
GREAT LAKES TO TX GULF COAST WILL ADVANCE EWD/SEWD TO THE
APPALACHIANS AND CNTRL GULF COAST BY THU MORNING. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION IN LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE THAT A FRONTAL WAVE MAY FORM
OVER THE LOWER SABINE VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THIS FEATURE
DEVELOPING NEWD TO NWRN AL BY 17/12Z.

...LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

BOTH LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. AND WHILE
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT --AND WITHIN
THE MIDLEVEL DRY SLOT-- MAY YIELD POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING...POOR
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL MOISTURE CONTENT WILL LIMIT THE
DEGREE OF AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION. A FEW LOW-TOPPED TSTMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON...BUT THE PROSPECT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED BY THE WEAK INSTABILITY.

...SRN TX TO LOWER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW THE PRESENCE OF A SEASONABLY MOIST AIR MASS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S AND PW VALUES OF 1.6-2.0 INCHES. SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...A
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME --AND RESULTANT MULTI-LAYER CLOUDS--
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF OCTAVE WILL LIMIT HEATING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. MOREOVER...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE OBSERVED TO BE
QUITE WEAK WHICH WILL LIMIT THE DEGREE OF AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION
LATER TODAY.

LATEST CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE AND EARLY INDICATIONS IN
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT TSTMS MAY EVOLVE THIS
AFTERNOON WITHIN NE-SW ORIENTED PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE BANDS FROM
THE LOWER SABINE VALLEY TO CNTRL/SRN MS. THE POOR LAPSE RATES AND
RESULTING WEAK INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER.

..MEAD.. 10/16/2013

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KFGF [161603]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 161603
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1103 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 10 E NEW ROCKFORD 47.68N 98.92W
10/16/2013 M1.63 INCH EDDY ND LAW ENFORCEMENT

STORM TOTAL - NDAWN STATION

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 E PERLEY 47.18N 96.67W
10/16/2013 M1.76 INCH NORMAN MN MESONET

STORM TOTAL - NDAWN STATION

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 N PILLSBURY 47.22N 97.80W
10/16/2013 M1.70 INCH BARNES ND MESONET

STORM TOTAL - NDAWN STATION

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 NW PROSPER 47.01N 97.09W
10/16/2013 M1.84 INCH CASS ND MESONET

STORM TOTAL - NDAWN STATION

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 11 S ROSEAU 48.69N 95.76W
10/16/2013 M0.42 INCH ROSEAU MN MESONET

STORM TOTAL - NDAWN STATION

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 NE SABIN 46.80N 96.62W
10/16/2013 M2.00 INCH CLAY MN MESONET

STORM TOTAL - NDAWN STATION

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 WSW ST. THOMAS 48.61N 97.49W
10/16/2013 M0.93 INCH PEMBINA ND MESONET

STORM TOTAL - NDAWN STATION

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 NE STEPHEN 48.46N 96.86W
10/16/2013 M0.82 INCH MARSHALL MN MESONET

STORM TOTAL - NDAWN STATION

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 NNW WAHPETON 46.35N 96.66W
10/16/2013 M2.12 INCH RICHLAND ND MESONET

STORM TOTAL - NDAWN STATION

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 SW WARREN 48.13N 96.86W
10/16/2013 M1.10 INCH POLK MN MESONET

STORM TOTAL - NDAWN STATION

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 E WYNDMERE 46.26N 97.09W
10/16/2013 M2.27 INCH RICHLAND ND MESONET

STORM TOTAL - NDAWN STATION

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 N ADA 47.31N 96.51W
10/16/2013 E1.49 INCH NORMAN MN MESONET

STORM TOTAL - NDAWN STATION

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 SE CANDO 48.47N 99.17W
10/16/2013 M1.03 INCH TOWNER ND MESONET

STORNM TOTAL - NDAWN STATION

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 SW CAVALIER 48.73N 97.72W
10/16/2013 M0.93 INCH PEMBINA ND MESONET

STORM TOTAL - NDAWN STATION

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 E CRARY 48.07N 98.62W
10/16/2013 M1.07 INCH RAMSEY ND MESONET

STORM TOTAL - NDAWN STATION

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 E DAZEY 47.19N 98.16W
10/16/2013 M1.30 INCH BARNES ND MESONET

STORM TOTAL - NDAWN STATION

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 W ELDRED 47.68N 96.82W
10/16/2013 M1.39 INCH POLK MN MESONET

STORM TOTAL - NDAWN STATION

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 W FINGAL 46.76N 97.88W
10/16/2013 M2.08 INCH BARNES ND MESONET

STORM TOTAL - NDAWN STATION

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 SSW GALESBURG 47.22N 97.44W
10/16/2013 M1.84 INCH CASS ND MESONET

STORM TOTAL - NDAWN STATION

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 E MAYVILLE 47.50N 97.29W
10/16/2013 M1.60 INCH TRAILL ND MESONET

STORM TOTAL - NDAWN STATION

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 WSW MAVIE 48.13N 96.00W
10/16/2013 M1.13 INCH PENNINGTON MN MESONET

STORM TOTAL - NDAWN STATION

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 N LEONARD 46.72N 97.25W
10/16/2013 M1.71 INCH CASS ND MESONET

STORM TOTAL - NDAWN STATION

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 E LANGDON 48.76N 98.35W
10/16/2013 M0.60 INCH CAVALIER ND MESONET

STORM TOTAL - NDAWN STATION

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 S HUMBOLDT 48.86N 97.09W
10/16/2013 M0.52 INCH KITTSON MN MESONET

STORM TOTAL - NDAWN STATION

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 7 SE HILLSBORO 47.33N 96.96W
10/16/2013 M1.61 INCH TRAILL ND MESONET

STORM TOTAL - NDAWN STATION

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 7 W GREENBUSH 48.70N 96.34W
10/16/2013 M0.70 INCH ROSEAU MN MESONET

STORM TOTAL - NDAWN STATION

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 S GRAND FORKS 47.87N 97.07W
10/16/2013 M1.17 INCH GRAND FORKS ND MESONET

STORM TOTAL - NDAWN STATION

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 10 E GRAFTON 48.41N 97.19W
10/16/2013 M0.95 INCH WALSH ND MESONET

STORM TOTAL - NDAWN STATION

1014 AM HEAVY RAIN ENDERLIN 46.62N 97.60W
10/16/2013 M1.78 INCH RANSOM ND PUBLIC

STORM TOTAL

1014 AM HEAVY RAIN CROOKSTON 47.77N 96.61W
10/16/2013 M1.25 INCH POLK MN PUBLIC

STORM TOTAL

1014 AM HEAVY RAIN 8 N BLACKDUCK 47.84N 94.55W
10/16/2013 M1.50 INCH BELTRAMI MN PUBLIC

1014 AM HEAVY RAIN COLFAX 46.47N 96.87W
10/16/2013 M1.68 INCH RICHLAND ND PUBLIC

STORM TOTAL

1014 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 E NOME 46.68N 97.75W
10/16/2013 M1.80 INCH BARNES ND PUBLIC

STORM TOTAL

1014 AM HEAVY RAIN HORACE 46.76N 96.90W
10/16/2013 M2.25 INCH CASS ND PUBLIC

STORM TOTAL

1014 AM HEAVY RAIN WSW KINDRED 46.65N 97.02W
10/16/2013 M1.83 INCH CASS ND PUBLIC

STORM TOTAL

1014 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 SW HILLSBORO 47.37N 97.11W
10/16/2013 M1.55 INCH TRAILL ND PUBLIC

STORM TOTAL

1014 AM HEAVY RAIN FRAZEE 46.73N 95.70W
10/16/2013 M1.75 INCH BECKER MN PUBLIC

STORM TOTAL

1014 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 E FORT RANSOM 46.52N 97.85W
10/16/2013 M2.00 INCH RANSOM ND PUBLIC

STORM TOTAL


&&

$$

DRIDDLE

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 161553
SWODY1
SPC AC 161551

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1051 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013

VALID 161630Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE CONUS WITH
A BELT OF ENHANCED MID AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW STRETCHING FROM THE SRN
PLAINS TO NERN STATES. A COUPLE OF MORE DISTINCT VORTICITY MAXIMA
ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS HIGH MOMENTUM AIR STREAM...ONE OF WHICH
WILL TRACK FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO SRN QUEBEC...AND ANOTHER
WHICH WILL TRANSLATE FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO MID MS
VALLEY.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONT INITIALLY FROM SWRN ONTARIO/LOWER
GREAT LAKES TO TX GULF COAST WILL ADVANCE EWD/SEWD TO THE
APPALACHIANS AND CNTRL GULF COAST BY THU MORNING. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION IN LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE THAT A FRONTAL WAVE MAY FORM
OVER THE LOWER SABINE VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THIS FEATURE
DEVELOPING NEWD TO NWRN AL BY 17/12Z.

...LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

BOTH LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. AND WHILE
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT --AND WITHIN
THE MIDLEVEL DRY SLOT-- MAY YIELD POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING...POOR
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL MOISTURE CONTENT WILL LIMIT THE
DEGREE OF AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION. A FEW LOW-TOPPED TSTMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON...BUT THE PROSPECT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED BY THE WEAK INSTABILITY.

...SRN TX TO LOWER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW THE PRESENCE OF A SEASONABLY MOIST AIR MASS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S AND PW VALUES OF 1.6-2.0 INCHES. SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...A
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME --AND RESULTANT MULTI-LAYER CLOUDS--
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF OCTAVE WILL LIMIT HEATING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. MOREOVER...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE OBSERVED TO BE
QUITE WEAK WHICH WILL LIMIT THE DEGREE OF AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION
LATER TODAY.

LATEST CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE AND EARLY INDICATIONS IN
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT TSTMS MAY EVOLVE THIS
AFTERNOON WITHIN NE-SW ORIENTED PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE BANDS FROM
THE LOWER SABINE VALLEY TO CNTRL/SRN MS. THE POOR LAPSE RATES AND
RESULTING WEAK INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER.

..MEAD/DARROW.. 10/16/2013

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KPUB [161524]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 161524
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
924 AM MDT WED OCT 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0923 AM SNOW BEULAH 38.08N 104.98W
10/16/2013 M4.6 INCH PUEBLO CO TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

KT

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KPUB [161523]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 161523
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
923 AM MDT WED OCT 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0915 AM SNOW 5 SSE CRESTONE 37.93N 105.67W
10/16/2013 M3.0 INCH SAGUACHE CO TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

RMG

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KPUB [161445]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 161445
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
844 AM MDT WED OCT 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0843 AM SNOW 7 ESE TEXAS CREEK 38.37N 105.46W
10/16/2013 M2.2 INCH FREMONT CO TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL WITH .18 LIQUID.


&&

$$

KT

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KEWX [161407]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 161407
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
907 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN TOW 30.88N 98.47W
10/16/2013 M2.70 INCH LLANO TX CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR RAINFALL


&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1300623

$$

CVP

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KPUB [161357]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 161357
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
757 AM MDT WED OCT 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0750 AM SNOW ROSITA 38.10N 105.33W
10/16/2013 M5.0 INCH CUSTER CO TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

RMG

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KPUB [161341]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 161341
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
741 AM MDT WED OCT 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0730 AM SNOW 5 NNE SPANISH PEAKS 37.45N 104.92W
10/16/2013 M4.5 INCH HUERFANO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0730 AM SNOW 1 S BEULAH 38.07N 104.98W
10/16/2013 M5.0 INCH PUEBLO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0630 AM SNOW 7 E COLORADO CITY 37.95N 104.72W
10/16/2013 E3.5 INCH PUEBLO CO TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

RMG

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KPUB [161330]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 161330
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
730 AM MDT WED OCT 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0729 AM HEAVY SNOW 1 SSW RYE 37.91N 104.94W
10/16/2013 M13.2 INCH PUEBLO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

.68 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT.


&&

$$

SROSE

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KBIS [161314]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 161314
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
814 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0810 AM HEAVY RAIN SATHER DAM 47.67N 103.81W
10/16/2013 M2.82 INCH MCKENZIE ND OTHER FEDERAL

STORM TOTAL


&&

$$

KROLAK

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KEWX [161311]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 161311
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
811 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0810 AM HEAVY RAIN INGRAM 30.08N 99.24W
10/16/2013 M2.00 INCH KERR TX CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR RAINFALL


&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1300622

$$

CVP

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KPUB [161302]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 161302
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
701 AM MDT WED OCT 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM SNOW 2 WSW ROSITA 38.09N 105.36W
10/16/2013 M5.5 INCH CUSTER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL


&&

$$

LW

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 161249
SWODY1
SPC AC 161247

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013

VALID 161300Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...WRN GULF COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...
A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PROGRESS NEWD WITHIN A CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME EXTENDING FROM THE SWRN TO THE NORTHEAST STATES. THE
LEAD TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO SRN QUEBEC...
WHILE A FOUR CORNERS TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO
THE MID MS VALLEY BY 12Z THU. EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ERN UPPER MI WITH THIS FEATURE
EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARD SRN QUEBEC CONCURRENT WITH THE ATTENDANT
UPPER GREAT LAKES SYSTEM. A COLD FRONT TRAILED SWWD FROM THIS LOW
THROUGH THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO TX GULF COAST. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
ADVANCE EWD ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND INTO PA/NY...WITH SLOWER
MOVEMENT OF THE SRN PORTION OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY
AND INTO THE FAR WRN GULF OF MEXICO.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDING
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM NERN MEXICO AND S TX TO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATED PW VALUES WITHIN THIS
MOISTURE PLUME WERE GREATER THAN 1 INCH IN THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/
UPPER OH VALLEY...AND RANGED FROM 1.75 TO 2 INCHES FROM THE LOWER MS
VALLEY TO THE TX COAST. DESPITE THIS AVAILABLE MOISTURE...WHICH
WILL AID IN ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE SHOWERS INVOF THE FRONT AND WITHIN
THE POST-FRONTAL REGION...WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN
FAIRLY WEAK INSTABILITY AND UPDRAFT STRENGTHS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS TODAY WILL BE ACROSS S-SERN
TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY...THOUGH WEAK FORCING ALOFT AND WEAKENING
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN SPORADIC TSTM COVERAGE.
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL TEND TO BE GREATER OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES WITH THE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BUT EQUILIBRIUM
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BECOME COLD ENOUGH FOR CHARGE SEPARATION/
LIGHTNING PRODUCTION. ALTHOUGH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS ACROSS THE TWO GENERAL TSTM AREAS
TODAY...WEAK INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES WILL PRECLUDE A SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT.

..PETERS/SMITH.. 10/16/2013

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KEWX [161130]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 161130
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
630 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 AM HEAVY RAIN 9 NNW LLANO 30.87N 98.73W
10/16/2013 M2.11 INCH LLANO TX COCORAHS

24 HOUR RAINFALL


&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1300621

$$

CVP

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KCHS [161103]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 161103
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
702 AM EDT WED OCT 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES 3 WNW FORT SCREVEN 32.03N 80.90W
10/16/2013 CHATHAM GA TIDE GAGE

A MAXIMUM TIDE LEVEL OF 9.35 FT MLLW WAS OBSERVED AT
THE FORT PULASKI TIDE GAGE. SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING
TYPICALLY BEGINS ALONG THE UPPER GEORGIA COAST WHEN TIDE
LEVELS REACH 9.2 FT MLLW AT FORT PULASKI.


&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1300928

$$

33

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KCHS [161101]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 161101
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
701 AM EDT WED OCT 16 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES 1 E CHARLESTON 32.78N 79.93W
10/16/2013 CHARLESTON SC TIDE GAGE

A MAXIMUM TIDE LEVEL OF 7.32 FT MLLW WAS OBSERVED AT
THE CHARLESTON HARBOR TIDE GAGE. SHALLOW COASTAL
FLOODING TYPICALLY BEGINS ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST WHEN TIDE LEVELS REACH 7.0 FT MLLW IN THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR.


&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1300927

$$

33

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 160828
SWOD48
SPC AC 160828

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0328 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013

VALID 191200Z - 241200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THOUGH DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS EXIST...MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT A
BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PREVAIL DURING MUCH OF THE 4-8 PERIOD WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ERN PACIFIC AND WRN U.S. AND A DOWNSTREAM
SYNOPTIC TROUGH OVER ERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS PATTERN WILL FOSTER
SEVERAL INTRUSIONS OF CP HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE U.S. WITH MOSTLY
OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE GULF AND STABLE CONDITIONS INLAND.

..DIAL.. 10/16/2013

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 160722
SWODY3
SPC AC 160721

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0221 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

BROAD SYNOPTIC TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE CNTRL U.S.
FRIDAY. A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH AND INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS AND MID-LOWER MS VALLEY
AREA ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD THROUGH
OK AND TX DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...WHILE A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NWD THROUGH S AND SERN TX.

...CNTRL THROUGH SERN TX...

GULF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN RETURNING NWD THROUGH TX AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING TO AROUND 60 ACROSS CNTRL TX WITH
NEAR 70 ALONG THE SRN THROUGH SERN COASTS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
WEAK LAPSE RATES AND WARM LAYERS ALOFT WHICH /IN ADDITION TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS TO ACCOMPANY THE RETURNING MOISTURE/ SHOULD
LIMIT INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE BELOW 1000 J/KG. WINDS ALOFT WILL
INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH...BUT LOW
LEVEL RESPONSE SHOULD REMAIN WEAK WITH MODEST FLOW FORECAST IN THE
SFC-700 MB LAYER. NEVERTHELESS...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL APPROACH
40-50 KT IN WARM SECTOR. STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS CNTRL TX FRIDAY
EVENING AS COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH RETURNING MOIST/INSTABILITY
AXIS. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL WARM ADVECTION
REGIME FROM SCNTRL THROUGH SERN TX OVERNIGHT. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS...AND A LOW END SEVERE
RISK CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS ANY SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED DUE PRIMARILY TO THE EXPECTED MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.

..DIAL.. 10/16/2013

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KPUB [160538]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 160538
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1138 PM MDT TUE OCT 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1138 PM SNOW 2 W RYE 37.92N 104.97W
10/15/2013 E8.0 INCH PUEBLO CO NWS EMPLOYEE


&&

$$

EPETERSE

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 160537
SWODY1
SPC AC 160535

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE
SRN PLAINS TODAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SEWD ACROSS THE TX COASTAL
PLAINS. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FROM SW AND CNTRL TX EWD
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY ALSO OCCUR
ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF A SFC
TROUGH. INSTABILITY IN BOTH OF THESE AREAS IS FORECAST TO BE TOO
WEAK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY OR TONIGHT.

..BROYLES/GARNER.. 10/16/2013

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 160443
SWODY2
SPC AC 160441

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1141 PM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND
EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL EJECT NEWD THROUGH
THE OH/TN VALLEYS THURSDAY AND INTO THE NERN STATES LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT. FARTHER UPSTREAM...THE BROAD SYNOPTIC TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY
ACROSS ROCKIES AND PLAINS REGION. AT THE SFC AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL
EXTEND FROM NEW ENGLAND SWWD AS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN
APPALACHIANS INTO THE WRN GULF. THE TRAILING PORTIONS OF THIS
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL OVER THE WRN GULF IN RESPONSE TO THE
AMPLIFYING TROUGH...WHILE REMAINING PORTION ADVANCES TOWARD THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD.

...SERN U.S THROUGH MID ATLANTIC REGION...

PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WITH DEWPOINTS FROM NEAR 70 ALONG THE
GULF COAST TO NEAR 60 OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL RESIDE IN
THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. POOR LAPSE RATES AND AREAS OF CLOUDS
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL WITH MUCAPE
BELOW 500 J/KG EXPECTED. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY SHIFT NEWD
ALONG THE FRONT AND IN POST FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE SERN U.S. THROUGH
THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION. DESPITE RELATIVELY
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AHEAD OF THE EJECTING
WAVE...THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LIMIT THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS.

..DIAL.. 10/16/2013

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