DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook Resent 1

ACUS01 KWNS 161634
SWODY1
SPC AC 161632

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013

VALID 161630Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

CORRECTED FOR NDFD GRAPHICS

...SYNOPSIS...

A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE CONUS WITH
A BELT OF ENHANCED MID AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW STRETCHING FROM THE SRN
PLAINS TO NERN STATES. A COUPLE OF MORE DISTINCT VORTICITY MAXIMA
ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS HIGH MOMENTUM AIR STREAM...ONE OF WHICH
WILL TRACK FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO SRN QUEBEC...AND ANOTHER
WHICH WILL TRANSLATE FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO MID MS
VALLEY.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONT INITIALLY FROM SWRN ONTARIO/LOWER
GREAT LAKES TO TX GULF COAST WILL ADVANCE EWD/SEWD TO THE
APPALACHIANS AND CNTRL GULF COAST BY THU MORNING. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION IN LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE THAT A FRONTAL WAVE MAY FORM
OVER THE LOWER SABINE VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THIS FEATURE
DEVELOPING NEWD TO NWRN AL BY 17/12Z.

...LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

BOTH LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. AND WHILE
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT --AND WITHIN
THE MIDLEVEL DRY SLOT-- MAY YIELD POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING...POOR
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL MOISTURE CONTENT WILL LIMIT THE
DEGREE OF AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION. A FEW LOW-TOPPED TSTMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON...BUT THE PROSPECT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED BY THE WEAK INSTABILITY.

...SRN TX TO LOWER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW THE PRESENCE OF A SEASONABLY MOIST AIR MASS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S AND PW VALUES OF 1.6-2.0 INCHES. SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...A
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME --AND RESULTANT MULTI-LAYER CLOUDS--
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF OCTAVE WILL LIMIT HEATING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. MOREOVER...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE OBSERVED TO BE
QUITE WEAK WHICH WILL LIMIT THE DEGREE OF AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION
LATER TODAY.

LATEST CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE AND EARLY INDICATIONS IN
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT TSTMS MAY EVOLVE THIS
AFTERNOON WITHIN NE-SW ORIENTED PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE BANDS FROM
THE LOWER SABINE VALLEY TO CNTRL/SRN MS. THE POOR LAPSE RATES AND
RESULTING WEAK INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER.

..MEAD.. 10/16/2013

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