WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch - Number 684

WWUS20 KWNS 230303
SEL4
SPC WW 230303
AZZ000-230300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - NUMBER 684
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
803 PM MST SAT SEP 22 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 684 ISSUED AT 145 PM MST FOR PORTIONS OF

ARIZONA

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KSLC [230210]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KSLC 230210
LSRSLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
810 PM MDT SAT SEP 22 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0130 PM FLASH FLOOD ZION NP 37.22N 112.99W
09/22/2007 WASHINGTON UT PARK/FOREST SRVC

FLASH FLOOD REPORTED IN TELEPHONE CANYON AND A FEW
SMALLER SLOT CANYONS. OBSERVER REPORTED THE NORTH FORK OF
THE VIRGIN RIVER AT THE NARROWS NEAR BANK FULL.

0219 PM FLASH FLOOD ZION NP 37.22N 112.99W
09/22/2007 WASHINGTON UT PARK/FOREST SRVC

WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING OF CANYONS THAT EMPTY INTO ZION
CANYON. KOLOB CREEK SPILLING OVER ITS BANKS IN SPOTS.

0525 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 N ZION NP 37.29N 112.99W
09/22/2007 M1.70 INCH WASHINGTON UT PARK/FOREST SRVC

LAVA POINT AT 8000 FEET FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM

0525 PM HEAVY RAIN VEYO 37.32N 113.69W
09/22/2007 M1.86 INCH WASHINGTON UT OFFICIAL NWS OBS

VEYO AT 4600 FEET SINCE 7 AM

0525 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 NNW HURRICANE 37.22N 113.38W
09/22/2007 M1.22 INCH WASHINGTON UT PARK/FOREST SRVC

WHITE REEF RAWS AT 3400 FEET. SINCE 9 AM.

0525 PM HEAVY RAIN ENTERPRISE 37.57N 113.71W
09/22/2007 M1.77 INCH WASHINGTON UT PARK/FOREST SRVC

8 AM TO 5 PM. 5300 FEET.

0525 PM FLASH FLOOD GUNLOCK 37.28N 113.77W
09/22/2007 WASHINGTON UT OFFICIAL NWS OBS

SANTA CLARA PEAKED AT 1176 CFS AT 18Z AND 2269 CFS AT
23Z. LITTLE OR NO FLOW PRIOR TO THIS RAINFALL.

0725 PM FLASH FLOOD VIRGIN 37.20N 113.20W
09/22/2007 WASHINGTON UT OFFICIAL NWS OBS

VIRGIN RIVER PEAKED AT 3755 CFS AT 01Z. 85 CFS AT 21Z.

&&

$$

ATARDY

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KSGX [230203]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSGX 230203
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
702 PM PDT SAT SEP 22 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1243 PM WATER SPOUT ENCINITAS 33.05N 117.26W
09/22/2007 SAN DIEGO CA CO-OP OBSERVER

WATER SPOUT MADE BRIEF LANDFALL AT SAN ELIJO BEACH. IT
BLEW OVER A COUPLE TENTS. DAMAGE WAS MINOR.

&&

$$

MGM

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KRIW [230154]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS55 KRIW 230154
LSRRIW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
754 PM MDT SAT SEP 22 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0720 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 E ROCK SPRINGS 41.60N 109.07W
09/22/2007 M60.00 MPH SWEETWATER WY ASOS

&&

$$

AEM

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KRIW [230153]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KRIW 230153
LSRRIW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
752 PM MDT SAT SEP 22 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0749 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 E ROCK SPRINGS 41.60N 109.07W
09/22/2007 M60 MPH SWEETWATER WY ASOS

&&

$$

AEM

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KHNX [230112]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KHNX 230112
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
612 PM PDT SAT SEP 22 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0610 PM HAIL 6 NE HANFORD 36.39N 119.57W
09/22/2007 E0.50 INCH KINGS CA NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

$$

SANGER

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 230103
SWODY1
SPC AC 230100

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT SAT SEP 22 2007

VALID 230100Z - 231200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ECNTRL AZ...

..AZ AND SE UT...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER CNTRL CA IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR WITH A
WELL-DEFINED DRY SLOT LOCATED ACROSS THE NRN SECTION OF BAJA CA
EXTENDING NNEWD INTO SW AZ. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT IN A PLUME OF MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS CNTRL AZ NWD INTO ERN UT WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES. THE GREATEST
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY DRIFT EWD INTO FAR SE UT AND
FAR ERN AZ AS THE DRY SLOT ADVANCES EWD AND THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
DRIFTS SLOWLY TOWARD THE REGION.

CONCERNING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...A BROAD 80 KT MID-LEVEL JET
EVIDENT ON RUC ANALYSIS IS CENTERED OVER SRN NV AND THIS FEATURE IS
CREATING STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FROM CNTRL AZ NWD INTO SRN
UT. THIS ALONG WITH SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG FROM CNTRL TO NRN
AZ AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR
ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE EAST OF INTERSTATE 17 IN ECNTRL
AZ WHERE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE LOCALLY VERY STEEP AND
INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL EAST OF THE PHOENIX AREA WHERE LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE LOCALLY VERY STEEP. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE
REGION.

..SRN FL...
A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING IN SRN FL EXTENDING
NWWD TO NEAR TAMPA BAY. THE ACTIVITY IS LOCATED IN A STRONGLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT EVIDENT ON THE 00Z MIAMI SOUNDING WITH MUCAPE
VALUES LOCALLY EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG. EVEN THOUGH WEAK SHEAR PROFILES
ARE IN PLACE...THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
70S F MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT FOR ANOTHER HOUR
ACROSS SRN FL.

.BROYLES.. 09/23/2007

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KMFL [230022]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 230022
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
821 PM EDT SAT SEP 22 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 PM TORNADO 30 E NAPLES 26.14N 81.32W
09/22/2007 COLLIER FL PUBLIC

NUMEROUS REPORTS FROM MOTORIST RECIEVED BY COLLIER COUNTY
EOC OF BRIEF TORNADO SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 75 AT MILE
MARKER 80 OVER THE BIG CYPRESS NATIONAL PRESERVE... NO
DAMAGE REPORTED.

&&

$$

TINGLER

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KJAX [230009]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 230009
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
809 PM EDT SAT SEP 22 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0808 PM FLOOD JESUP 31.60N 81.89W
09/22/2007 WAYNE GA FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

HIGHWAY 301 IN JESUP HAD TO BE CLOSED DOWN TODAY DUE TO
FLOOD. AT THIS TIME IT IS UNKNOWN IF THE ROAD HAS BEEN
REOPENED IN JESUP.

&&

$$

ENYEDI

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2008

ACUS11 KWNS 230002
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230001
AZZ000-230130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2008
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0701 PM CDT SAT SEP 22 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 684...

VALID 230001Z - 230130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 684
CONTINUES.

ANOTHER WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ONCE CURRENT WW EXPIRES AT 03Z.

CONVECTION HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD IN A BROAD ZONE OF MOIST ISENTROPIC
ASCENT...ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF ARIZONA INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
BASIN. STRONGEST ACTIVITY APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN FOCUSED WHERE
OROGRAPHY ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM ENHANCED LIFT OF HEATED MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER AIR EMANATING FROM THE LOWER DESERTS...NORTH
NORTHEAST OF PHOENIX INTO THE FLAGSTAFF AREA. HOWEVER...THIS
ACTIVITY HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER/STORM
COVERAGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIM.

MODERATELY SHEARED DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY STILL SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL/GUSTY
WINDS...IN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE TO 1000 J/KG
..NORTH OF TUCSON INTO AREAS NEAR/EAST OF PHOENIX...ANOTHER COUPLE
OF HOURS. HOWEVER...STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE LOWER
DESERTS WILL STABILIZE FURTHER WITH THE ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING BY
02-03Z.

.KERR.. 09/23/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

35261320 35821329 35931298 35951224 35951143 35911071
35421048 34241015 33420996 32800976 32420974 32311025
32321109 32321190 32431228 33161255 34131279 34791305

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KSLC [222335]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KSLC 222335
LSRSLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
535 PM MDT SAT SEP 22 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0130 PM FLASH FLOOD ZION NP 37.22N 112.99W
09/22/2007 WASHINGTON UT PARK/FOREST SRVC

FLASH FLOOD REPORTED IN TELEPHONE CANYON AND A FEW
SMALLER SLOT CANYONS. OBSERVER REPORTED THE NORTH FORK OF
THE VIRGIN RIVER AT THE NARROWS NEAR BANK FULL.

0219 PM FLASH FLOOD ZION NP 37.22N 112.99W
09/22/2007 WASHINGTON UT PARK/FOREST SRVC

WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING OF CANYONS THAT EMPTY INTO ZION
CANYON. KOLOB CREEK SPILLING OVER ITS BANKS IN SPOTS.

0525 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 N ZION NP 37.29N 112.99W
09/22/2007 M1.70 INCH WASHINGTON UT PARK/FOREST SRVC

LAVA POINT AT 8000 FEET FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM

0525 PM HEAVY RAIN VEYO 37.32N 113.69W
09/22/2007 M1.86 INCH WASHINGTON UT OFFICIAL NWS OBS

VEYO AT 4600 FEET SINCE 7 AM

0525 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 NNW HURRICANE 37.22N 113.38W
09/22/2007 M1.22 INCH WASHINGTON UT PARK/FOREST SRVC

WHITE REEF RAWS AT 3400 FEET. SINCE 9 AM.

0525 PM HEAVY RAIN ENTERPRISE 37.57N 113.71W
09/22/2007 M1.77 INCH WASHINGTON UT PARK/FOREST SRVC

8 AM TO 5 PM. 5300 FEET.

&&

$$

ATARDY

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KJAX [222331]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 222331
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
731 PM EDT SAT SEP 22 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0710 PM HEAVY RAIN HOMERVILLE 31.04N 82.75W
09/22/2007 M2.50 INCH CLINCH GA TRAINED SPOTTER

A SPOTTER MEASURED RAINFALL 2.5 INCHES THAT OCCURRED IN
45 MINUTES.

&&

$$

ARS

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KJAX [222256]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 222256
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
656 PM EDT SAT SEP 22 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0645 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 2 NE HOMERVILLE 31.06N 82.73W
09/22/2007 CLINCH GA TRAINED SPOTTER

POSSIBLE FUNNEL CLOUD WAS REPORTED BY SPOTTER NEAR
HIGHWAY 84.

&&

$$

ARS

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KFGZ [222219]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KFGZ 222219
LSRFGZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
318 PM MST SAT SEP 22 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0245 PM HAIL 9 S PINE 34.26N 111.46W
09/22/2007 E1.75 INCH GILA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED ALONG HIGHWAY 87.

&&

$$

JJ

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook Amend 1

ACUS01 KWNS 222102
SWODY1
SPC AC 222059

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 PM CDT SAT SEP 22 2007

VALID 222055Z - 231200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR AZ...

AMENDED FOR SLIGHT RISK UPGRADE IN AZ

..GRT BASIN/DESERT SW...
FOR SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2007 AND
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 684.

UPR LOW WAS BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE NEWD ALONG THE SRN CA COAST THIS
AFTN. ENERGETIC WARM CONVEYOR WELL E OF THE LOW CENTER HAS BEEN
SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS UT AND AZ AND WILL CONTINUE EWD TONIGHT
TOWARD THE ROCKIES. VWP FROM ICX/FSX INDICATE A DEEP AND STRONG SLY
FETCH WITH 45+ KT WINDS DOWN INTO THE 1-2 KM RANGE. BULK SHEAR WAS
SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...GIVEN ENOUGH BUOYANCY. PRIND THAT
STRONGER STORMS WILL FAVOR AREAS FROM EXTREME SRN UT SWD INTO AZ
WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW AND STRONGER HEATING COEXIST THIS AFTN.
OTHERWISE...STRONGER STORMS MIGHT EVOLVE LATER IN THE EVENING ALONG
WRN EDGE OF THE MOIST CONVEYOR AS COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT BEGIN TO
ADVECT NEWD. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS. A BRIEF ISOLD TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT... ESPECIALLY
ALONG/S OF THE HIGHER RIM COUNTRY WHERE LOCALIZED BACKING OF THE SFC
FLOW WILL EXIST.

..INTERIOR CNTRL/SRN FL...
WHILE THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC DERIVED CONVECTION MOVES WWD AWAY FROM
THE FL WCOAST...ECOAST SEABREEZE CIRCULATION HAS BEEN IMPETUS FOR
STG TSTMS THIS AFTN. THESE STORMS WILL MIGRATE WWD INTO INTERIOR
CNTRL/SRN FL THROUGH THE EVENING. WEAK FLOW AND RELATIVELY WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD SVR WEATHER...BUT ISOLD
STORMS MAY YIELD MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AND/OR DMGG MICROBURSTS.

..CNTRL/UPSTATE NY...
NARROW RIBBON OF INSTABILITY HAS EVOLVED ALONG/AHEAD OF PRE-FRONTAL
CONFLUENCE ACROSS CNTRL/UPSTATE NY...WITH MLCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG.
SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE AND APPARENT FORCING ALOFT HAS YIELD A FEW
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING FROM
NRN NEW ENGLAND SWWD INTO NCNTRL PA. VWP AT BUF AND CXX SUGGEST
THAT SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WAS SKIRTING ACROSS THE
REGION...SUPPORTIVE FOR BRIEF INTENSIFICATION OF THE TSTMS.
INTENSITY SHOULD PEAK BEFORE 00Z WITH SUBSEQUENT DECREASE AFTER
DARK. ISOLD DMGG WIND GUSTS OR HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER
STORMS...BUT OVERALL SVR THREAT APPEARS LIMITED.

.RACY/GUYER.. 09/22/2007

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 684

WWUS20 KWNS 222043
SEL4
SPC WW 222043
AZZ000-230300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 684
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
145 PM MST SAT SEP 22 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF ARIZONA

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 145 PM UNTIL
800 PM MST.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF FLAGSTAFF ARIZONA TO 80 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PHOENIX
ARIZONA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...RAPID INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AZ IN
RESPONSE TO STRONG SLY FLOW OF MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR. WITH APPROACH OF
UPPER LOW SRN CA...STORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING AND
SPREAD NWD WITH LARGE HAIL AND BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS PRIMARY THREAT.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 19030.

..HALES

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2007

ACUS11 KWNS 222025
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222025
AZZ000-222230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2007
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0325 PM CDT SAT SEP 22 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL THROUGH N CNTRL AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 222025Z - 222230Z

HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL...ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

DEEP SLY FLOW EAST OF CUTOFF UPPER LOW SITUATED OFF THE SRN CA COAST
IS CONTRIBUTING TO ADVECTION OF MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NWD THROUGH
AZ. SURFACE HEATING GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE RIM HAS RESULTED IN A
GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION OVER SRN AZ WITH MLCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000
J/KG. SCATTERED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER CNTRL AZ WITHIN ZONE OF
ASCENT EAST OF THE UPPER LOW...AND TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR THIS
ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY INCREASE. RECENT VWP DATA SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL
SLY WINDS INCREASING TO AOA 50 KT ABOVE 3 KM WITH DEEP SHEAR ON THE
ORDER OF 40 KT. THIS WIND PROFILE IS SUPPORTIVE OF STORMS DEVELOPING
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...AND SOME STORMS SPLITS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
OBSERVED. THE DEEP SLY WIND PROFILE IS ALSO ENHANCING UPSLOPE
COMPONENT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE RIM. THIS ALONG WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL
WINDS SUPPORTIVE OF TRAINING AND PW VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES WILL
SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN AS STORMS TRAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

.DIAL.. 09/22/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

35041134 33331077 32711130 32681221 33511287 34751305
35811311 36161204

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KSLC [222021]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KSLC 222021
LSRSLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
221 PM MDT SAT SEP 22 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0219 PM FLASH FLOOD ZION NP 37.22N 112.99W
09/22/2007 WASHINGTON UT PARK/FOREST SRVC

WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING OF CANYONS THAT EMPTY INTO ZION
CANYON. KOLOB CREEK SPILLING OVER ITS BANKS IN SPOTS.

&&

$$

BSMITH

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 221950
SWODY1
SPC AC 221947

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0247 PM CDT SAT SEP 22 2007

VALID 222000Z - 231200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..GRT BASIN/DESERT SW...
UPR LOW WAS BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE NEWD ALONG THE SRN CA COAST THIS
AFTN. ENERGETIC WARM CONVEYOR WELL E OF THE LOW CENTER HAS BEEN
SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS UT AND AZ AND WILL CONTINUE EWD TONIGHT
TOWARD THE ROCKIES. VWP FROM ICX/FSX INDICATE A DEEP AND STRONG SLY
FETCH WITH 45+ KT WINDS DOWN INTO THE 1-2 KM RANGE. BULK SHEAR WAS
SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...GIVEN ENOUGH BUOYANCY. PRIND THAT
STRONGER STORMS WILL FAVOR AREAS FROM EXTREME SRN UT SWD INTO AZ
WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW AND STRONGER HEATING COEXIST THIS AFTN.
OTHERWISE...STRONGER STORMS MIGHT EVOLVE LATER IN THE EVENING ALONG
WRN EDGE OF THE MOIST CONVEYOR AS COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT BEGIN TO
ADVECT NEWD. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS. A BRIEF ISOLD TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT... ESPECIALLY
ALONG/S OF THE HIGHER RIM COUNTRY WHERE LOCALIZED BACKING OF THE SFC
FLOW WILL EXIST.

..INTERIOR CNTRL/SRN FL...
WHILE THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC DERIVED CONVECTION MOVES WWD AWAY FROM
THE FL WCOAST...ECOAST SEABREEZE CIRCULATION HAS BEEN IMPETUS FOR
STG TSTMS THIS AFTN. THESE STORMS WILL MIGRATE WWD INTO INTERIOR
CNTRL/SRN FL THROUGH THE EVENING. WEAK FLOW AND RELATIVELY WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD SVR WEATHER...BUT ISOLD
STORMS MAY YIELD MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AND/OR DMGG MICROBURSTS.

..CNTRL/UPSTATE NY...
NARROW RIBBON OF INSTABILITY HAS EVOLVED ALONG/AHEAD OF PRE-FRONTAL
CONFLUENCE ACROSS CNTRL/UPSTATE NY...WITH MLCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG.
SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE AND APPARENT FORCING ALOFT HAS YIELD A FEW
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING FROM
NRN NEW ENGLAND SWWD INTO NCNTRL PA. VWP AT BUF AND CXX SUGGEST
THAT SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WAS SKIRTING ACROSS THE
REGION...SUPPORTIVE FOR BRIEF INTENSIFICATION OF THE TSTMS.
INTENSITY SHOULD PEAK BEFORE 00Z WITH SUBSEQUENT DECREASE AFTER
DARK. ISOLD DMGG WIND GUSTS OR HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER
STORMS...BUT OVERALL SVR THREAT APPEARS LIMITED.

.RACY.. 09/22/2007

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KSLC [221939]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KSLC 221939
LSRSLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
139 PM MDT SAT SEP 22 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0130 PM FLASH FLOOD ZION NP 37.22N 112.99W
09/22/2007 WASHINGTON UT PARK/FOREST SRVC

FLASH FLOOD REPORTED IN TELEPHONE CANYON AND A FEW
SMALLER SLOT CANYONS. OBSERVER REPORTED THE NORTH FORK OF
THE VIRGIN RIVER AT THE NARROWS NEAR BANK FULL.

&&

$$

BSMITH

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KSGX [221939]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSGX 221939
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1239 PM PDT SAT SEP 22 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1215 PM WATER SPOUT 3 W ENCINITAS 33.05N 117.31W
09/22/2007 PZZ750 CA CO-OP OBSERVER

MULTIPLE REPORTS FROM LIFEGUARDS AND SPOTTERS OF SEVERAL
WATERSPOUTS AND FUNNEL CLOUDS OFFSHORE BETWEEN SOLANA
BEACH AND OCEANSIDE.

&&

$$

PG

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KJAX [221921]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 221921
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
321 PM EDT SAT SEP 22 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0315 PM FLOOD JESUP 31.60N 81.89W
09/22/2007 WAYNE GA TRAINED SPOTTER

2 TO 3 FEET OF STANDING WATER ON PARTS OF CHERRY ST AND
PARTS OF US-84. WATER UP TO THE DOOR HANDLES OF A VAN.

&&

$$

CARROLL

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.