SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230001
AZZ000-230130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2008
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0701 PM CDT SAT SEP 22 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AZ
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 684...
VALID 230001Z - 230130Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 684
CONTINUES.
ANOTHER WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ONCE CURRENT WW EXPIRES AT 03Z.
CONVECTION HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD IN A BROAD ZONE OF MOIST ISENTROPIC
ASCENT...ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF ARIZONA INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
BASIN. STRONGEST ACTIVITY APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN FOCUSED WHERE
OROGRAPHY ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM ENHANCED LIFT OF HEATED MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER AIR EMANATING FROM THE LOWER DESERTS...NORTH
NORTHEAST OF PHOENIX INTO THE FLAGSTAFF AREA. HOWEVER...THIS
ACTIVITY HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER/STORM
COVERAGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIM.
MODERATELY SHEARED DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY STILL SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL/GUSTY
WINDS...IN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE TO 1000 J/KG
..NORTH OF TUCSON INTO AREAS NEAR/EAST OF PHOENIX...ANOTHER COUPLE
OF HOURS. HOWEVER...STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE LOWER
DESERTS WILL STABILIZE FURTHER WITH THE ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING BY
02-03Z.
.KERR.. 09/23/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...
35261320 35821329 35931298 35951224 35951143 35911071
35421048 34241015 33420996 32800976 32420974 32311025
32321109 32321190 32431228 33161255 34131279 34791305
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