KVEF [120353]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 120353
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
853 PM PDT THU OCT 11 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0845 PM FLASH FLOOD 4 W LAS VEGAS STRIP 36.13N 115.24W
10/11/2012 CLARK NV TRAINED SPOTTER

1 FOOT OF FLOWING WATER AT THE INTERSECTION OF SPRING
MOUNTAIN RD AND RAINBOW.


&&

$$

METZGER

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KVEF [120328]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 120328
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
828 PM PDT THU OCT 11 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0821 PM HAIL 5 SW GREEN VALLEY 36.01N 115.15W
10/11/2012 E0.25 INCH CLARK NV PUBLIC


&&

$$

METZGER

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KVEF [120322]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 120322
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
822 PM PDT THU OCT 11 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0817 PM HAIL ANTHEM 35.96N 115.09W
10/11/2012 E0.88 INCH CLARK NV PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORT OF NICKLE SIZE HAIL IN ANTHEM.


&&

$$

STACHELSKI

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KPSR [120318]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPSR 120318
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
818 PM MST THU OCT 11 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0756 PM HAIL 2 S CLAYPOOL 33.40N 110.84W
10/11/2012 E0.25 INCH GILA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

EVENT NUMBER PSR1200333

$$

PSR

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KVEF [120307]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 120307
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
806 PM PDT THU OCT 11 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0732 PM FLASH FLOOD SW FURNACE CREEK 36.45N 116.85W
10/11/2012 INYO CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

CHP REPORTS 8 VEHICLES STUCK IN THE ROADWAY DUE TO FLASH
FLOODING AT THE INTERSECTION OF SR 190 AND SR178.


&&

$$

METZGER

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KVEF [120306]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 120306
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
806 PM PDT THU OCT 11 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0802 PM HAIL 2 W MOUNTAINS EDGE 36.01N 115.30W
10/11/2012 E0.50 INCH CLARK NV NWS EMPLOYEE

AN OFF DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL
ON THE WEST SIDE OF MOUNTAINS EDGE IN THE SOUTHWEST PART
OF LAS VEGAS.


&&

$$

STACHELSKI

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KVEF [120249]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 120249
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
749 PM PDT THU OCT 11 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0545 PM FLASH FLOOD 3 ESE SPRING MOUNTAIN R 36.05N 115.40W
10/11/2012 CLARK NV BROADCAST MEDIA

LAS VEGAS AREA BROADCAST MEDIA REPORTED A FOOT OF FLOWING
WATER ALONG WITH SOME DEBRIS CROSSING ARROYO ROAD IN BLUE
DIAMOND. THE EVENT TIME IS AN ESTIMATE.


&&

$$

CS/RM

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KSGX [120220]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSGX 120220
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
720 PM PDT THU OCT 11 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 PM FLOOD COLTON 34.06N 117.32W
10/11/2012 SAN BERNARDINO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

PHIL DUPREE HEARD THROUGH SKYWARN OF FLOODING IN COLTON
VALLEY BETWEEN HERMOSA AND GRAND ROADS. ROADWAY IS
CLOSED.


&&

$$

TSTALL

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KVEF [120202]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 120202
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
702 PM PDT THU OCT 11 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0659 PM HEAVY RAIN 9 E MT. CHARLESTON 36.28N 115.46W
10/11/2012 M2.80 INCH CLARK NV MESONET

A STORM TOTAL SINCE 10/10/12 OF 2.80 INCHES WAS MEASURED
AT AN AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGE OPERATED BY THE CLARK COUNTY
REGIONAL FLOOD CONTROL DISTRICT ALONG KYLE CANYON ROAD.


&&

$$

STACHELSKI

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KLOX [120131]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KLOX 120131
LSRLOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OXNARD CA
631 PM PDT THU OCT 11 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 PM FLASH FLOOD 4 NW PASADENA 34.20N 118.18W
10/11/2012 LOS ANGELES CA FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

FLASH FLOOD AND MUD FLOWS REPORTED IN LA CANADA. CROWN
STREET WAS CLOSED BETWEEN FOOTHILL AVE AND BAPTISTE ST.

0528 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 E COMPTON 33.89N 118.19W
10/11/2012 LOS ANGELES CA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

710 FREEWAY NEAR ALONDRA EXIT HAD 3 TO 4 FEET OF WATER
OVER ALL LANES.


&&

$$

KAPLAN

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 120059
SWODY1
SPC AC 120057

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT THU OCT 11 2012

VALID 120100Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS KS/OK BORDER REGION TO EXTREME
WRN PORTIONS TN/KY...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY SPLIT
FLOW...FEATURING NRN-STREAM RIDGING OVER PAC NW AND PAC COAST OF
CANADA...AND PRONOUNCED CYCLONE OVER SRN CA AND ADJACENT WATERS. CA
LOW IS FCST TO MOVE INLAND AND ENEWD THROUGH REMAINDER
PERIOD...REACHING SERN SIERRAS. MEANWHILE...ASSOCIATED CYCLONICALLY
CURVED 500-250 MB SPEED MAXIMA WILL STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT AND SHIFT
EWD ACROSS ERN/SRN AZ. SEPARATE/NRN-STREAM PERTURBATION WILL MOVE
EWD ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES...WHILE RELATED MID-UPPER JET MAX
SHIFTS ESEWD ACROSS MID MS RIVER VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGIONS.

23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED COLD FRONT FROM SRN LOWER MI SWWD ACROSS
NWRN MO AND CENTRAL KS TO OK PANHANDLE...ARCHING NWWD THROUGH WEAK
LOW OVER SERN CO. WRN SEGMENT OF THIS FRONT IS FCST TO DECELERATE
OVERNIGHT...DRIFTING SWD ACROSS SRN KS...NWRN OK...NRN TX PANHANDLE
AND NERN NM. MEANWHILE REMAINDER OF FRONT SHOULD REACH SRN
NY...LOWER OH VALLEY...OZARKS AND CENTRAL/ERN PORTIONS KS/OK BORDER
REGION. FROM OZARKS WWD...THIS BOUNDARY WILL OVERTAKE NNEWD-MOVING
WARM FRONT THAT WAS ANALYZED FROM S-CENTRAL KS SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL
AR AND NRN MS. DIFFUSE DRYLINE WAS DRAWN FROM NWRN/N-CENTRAL TX
PANHANDLE SWWD ACROSS E-CENTRAL NM THEN GENERALLY SWD OVER
TRANS-PECOS REGION. DRYLINE MAY RETREAT SLIGHTLY NWWD
OVERNIGHT..WHERE NOT OVERTAKEN BY COLD FRONT.

...KS/OK BORDER REGION TO EXTREME WRN PORTIONS TN/KY...
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN BAND FROM SWRN
KS/NWRN OK EWD ACROSS OZARKS...ERN PORTION OF WHICH SHOULD AFFECT
PORTIONS WRN TN/KY BEFORE END OF PERIOD. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
LOW-END SVR HAIL...WITH POTENTIAL COVERAGE THEREOF MRGLLY SUPPORTING
15% PROBABILITY CORRIDOR. FRONTAL TRENDS AND LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RELATIVELY NARROW ZONE OF GREATEST
OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...THOUGH THERE ARE SOME PROGGED PHASE
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO N-S PLACEMENT OF TSTM AXIS. THIS REGION
WILL LIE BENEATH RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSYNOPTIC/AGEOSTROPHIC ASCENT...JUXTAPOSED WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND WAA ACCOMPANYING 30-40 KT 850-MB FLOW ON GULF-ORIGIN
TRAJECTORIES. PARCELS WILL BE LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY TO LFC WITH
ELEVATED MUCAPE RANGING FROM 1500-2000 J/KG OVER KS/OK BORDER
REGION...DIMINISHING TO 500-1000 J/KG RANGE IN ERN PORTIONS OUTLOOK
AREA...ALL AMIDST 35-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES.

...SWRN CONUS...
TRIANGULAR AREA OF SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WAS EVIDENT
BETWEEN SERN AZ...SWRN UT AND SRN PORTIONS SIERRA NEVADA. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT PLUME
WRAPPING THROUGH ERN CONVEYOR OF MID-UPPER CYCLONE...AS WELL AS
LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL/CONVERGENCE ZONE. 00Z RAOBS AND MODIFIED MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INCREASE N LAPSE RATES/BUOYANCY AND DECREASE IN
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WITH NWWD EXTENT THROUGH THIS PLUME...THOUGH SHEAR
OVER SRN NV CONVECTIVE AREA APPEARS AT LEAST MRGLLY FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED MULTICELLS AND TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL OR STG-SVR GUSTS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER
FEW HOURS BEFORE DIABATIC SFC COOLING APPRECIABLY DIMINISHES TSTM
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INVOF DRYLINE AND BENEATH RIDGING
ALOFT IS MORE UNCERTAIN AND CONDITIONAL...THOUGH NSSL AND ARW WRF
PROGS STILL INDICATE THIS POSSIBILITY OVER WRN NM AFTER 06Z. PRIND
SVR POTENTIAL WITH ANY SUCH ACTIVITY WILL BE MRGL AT
MOST...PRIMARILY IN FORM OF ISOLATED HAIL.

..EDWARDS.. 10/12/2012

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KVEF [120056]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 120056
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
551 PM PDT THU OCT 11 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0523 PM HAIL 11 S PAHRUMP W7LAS 35.96N 115.90W
10/11/2012 E1.00 INCH INYO CA TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

METZGER

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KVEF [120038]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 120038
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
538 PM PDT THU OCT 11 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0524 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 ESE RED ROCK CANYON 36.13N 115.41W
10/11/2012 CLARK NV LAW ENFORCEMENT

HIGHWAY 159 HAS SEVERAL INCHES OF WATER AND DEBRIS ON IT
AT MILE MARKER 11. NDOT WAS BEING DISPATCHED TO HELP
CLEAR THE ROAD.


&&

$$

STACHELSKI

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KVEF [112359]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 112359
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
459 PM PDT THU OCT 11 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0455 PM HAIL 6 S RED ROCK CANYON 36.06N 115.45W
10/11/2012 M0.50 INCH CLARK NV PUBLIC

BONNIE SPRINGS RANCH RESTAURANT MEASURED 3/8 INCH
DIAMETER HAIL AND SAID IT WAS COVERING THE GROUND.


&&

$$

STACHELSKI

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KVEF [112357]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 112357
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
453 PM PDT THU OCT 11 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0436 PM HAIL 5 W AMARGOSA VALLEY (CM 36.58N 116.55W
10/11/2012 E0.75 INCH NYE NV TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL FELL FROM 1630 TO 1636.


&&

$$

METZGER

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KVEF [112347]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 112347
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
447 PM PDT THU OCT 11 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0307 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 7 SSW PAHRUMP 36.12N 116.04W
10/11/2012 INYO CA PUBLIC

CONFIRMED FUNNEL CLOUD OVER THE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWEST OF
PAHRUMP THROUGH A PHOTO SENT TO THE NWS LAS VEGAS
FACEBOOK PAGE. THIS WAS A THIN ROPE-LIKE FUNNEL. THE
EVENT TIME WAS ESTIMATED OFF OF RADAR VELOCITY.


&&

$$

STACHELSKI

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KDDC [112342]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 112342
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
642 PM CDT THU OCT 11 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0636 PM HAIL MEADE STATE PARK 37.17N 100.42W
10/11/2012 E0.25 INCH MEADE KS NWS EMPLOYEE


&&

$$

MRUSSELL

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KVEF [112339]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 112339
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
439 PM PDT THU OCT 11 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 WNW RED ROCK CANYON 36.15N 115.48W
10/11/2012 CLARK NV PARK/FOREST SRVC

PART OF THE RED ROCK CANYON SCENIC LOOP WAS WASHED OUT
BETWEEN WILLOW SPRINGS AND ICE BOX CANYON.


&&

$$

STACHELSKI

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KVEF [112313]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 112313
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
413 PM PDT THU OCT 11 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0323 PM HAIL 2 SSE LONE PINE 36.56N 118.05W
10/11/2012 E0.25 INCH INYO CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

CALIFORNIA HIGHWAY PATROL REPORTED A THUNDERSTORM DROPPED
HAIL ON HIGHWAY 395 RESULTING IN THE CLOSURE OF THE
HIGHWAY FROM CARROLL CREEK BOULDER CREEK. A SPOTTER IN
LONE PINE REPORTED SOME VEHICLES HAD ABOUT 2 INCHES OF
HAIL ACCUMULATED ON THEM THAT CAME FROM THE AREA ON

HIGHWAY 395 WHERE THE STRONGEST CORE OF THE STORM WAS AT.


&&

$$

STACHELSKI

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KLOX [112205]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KLOX 112205
LSRLOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OXNARD CA
305 PM PDT THU OCT 11 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0258 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 NW PASADENA 34.18N 118.17W
10/11/2012 M1.10 INCH LOS ANGELES CA MESONET

1.10 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN 25 MINUTES AT DEVILS GATE
AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGE.


&&

$$

HALL

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KGRR [112103]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 112103
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
503 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0850 AM NON-TSTM WND GST S BIG SABLE POINT 44.06N 86.51W
10/11/2012 M52.00 MPH MASON MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS

BIG SABLE OBSERVATION

0907 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 S MUSKEGON 43.17N 86.24W
10/11/2012 M41.00 MPH MUSKEGON MI ASOS

1100 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 W MUSKEGON 43.23N 86.34W
10/11/2012 M49.00 MPH MUSKEGON MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS

GLERL OBSERVATION

1200 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 W SOUTH HAVEN 42.40N 86.29W
10/11/2012 M44.00 MPH LMZ844 MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS

GLERL OBSERVATION

0140 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SSW CASCADE 42.88N 85.52W
10/11/2012 M44.00 MPH KENT MI ASOS

0149 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 NW LANSING 42.78N 84.59W
10/11/2012 M39.00 MPH CLINTON MI ASOS

0354 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 ESE GRAND RAPIDS 42.94N 85.61W
10/11/2012 M40.00 MPH KENT MI BROADCAST MEDIA

MEASURED AT MEMORIAL FIELD

0408 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 ESE KALAMAZOO 42.26N 85.53W
10/11/2012 M33.00 MPH KALAMAZOO MI ASOS


&&

$$

MAPLES

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KSGX [112048]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSGX 112048
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
148 PM PDT THU OCT 11 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1048 AM FUNNEL CLOUD BONSALL 33.28N 117.22W
10/11/2012 SAN DIEGO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

FUNNEL CLOUD SIGHTED OVER BONSALL THIS MORNING. VIEWING
LOCATION WAS HIGHWAY 76 AND MISSION ROAD LOOKING SOUTH.


&&

$$

PALMER

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KLOX [112037]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KLOX 112037
LSRLOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OXNARD CA
137 PM PDT THU OCT 11 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0133 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 NE SIMI VALLEY 34.29N 118.71W
10/11/2012 E1.50 INCH VENTURA CA TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN IN 30
MINUTES. WATER RISING TO 2 INCHES ABOVE CURB LEVEL.


&&

$$

SUKUP

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KHNX [112036]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KHNX 112036
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
136 PM PDT THU OCT 11 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0130 PM SNOW TIOGA PASS 37.91N 119.26W
10/11/2012 E0.0 INCH TUOLUMNE CA PARK/FOREST SRVC

DUSTING OF SNOW ON TIOGA ROAD. ROAD WAS CLOSED
TEMPORARILY.


&&

$$

JAND

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KLOX [112022]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KLOX 112022
LSRLOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OXNARD CA
122 PM PDT THU OCT 11 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1250 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 WNW SIMI VALLEY 34.28N 118.81W
10/11/2012 M0.84 INCH VENTURA CA MESONET

0.84 INCHES OF RAIN IN 12 MINUTES


&&

$$

SUKUP

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KLOX [112010]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KLOX 112010
LSRLOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OXNARD CA
110 PM PDT THU OCT 11 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0107 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 NE SIMI VALLEY 34.29N 118.71W
10/11/2012 E1.00 INCH VENTURA CA TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTER REPORT 1.0 INCH OF RAIN IN 15 MINUTES.


&&

$$

SUKUP

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 111955
SWODY1
SPC AC 111953

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 PM CDT THU OCT 11 2012

VALID 112000Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF KS/OK INTO THE
OZARKS...

...SRN KS/NRN OK ACROSS NRN AR/SRN MO...
THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT EVOLUTION OF ELEVATED CONVECTION
ACROSS THIS REGION REMAINS ON TRACK...WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL
WARM-ADVECTION REGIME TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE MAIN
UPPER SYSTEM. MARGINAL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION.

...ELSEWHERE...
LIMITED/MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SWRN U.S. INVOF THE UPPER LOW NOW CENTERED NEAR THE SRN CA
COAST. ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND/OR HAIL WITH A
STRONGER CELL OR TWO WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR ACROSS WRN
AZ/NV...MARGINAL HAIL OR A BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS
OF SRN CA UNDER THE IMMEDIATE LOW CENTER THROUGH THIS EVENING.

FARTHER E INTO THE ERN NM VICINITY...LATEST GUIDANCE HINTS THAT
GREATER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE SECOND HALF OF
THE PERIOD...MORE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE BROADER ZONE OF
DEVELOPMENT FARTHER NE. THUS... ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS
AREA APPEARS LESS LIKELY TO OCCUR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITHIN
THIS REGION.

..GOSS.. 10/11/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT THU OCT 11 2012/

...SRN KS/NRN OK ACROSS NR AR/SRN MO...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND 12Z RAOBS INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
RETURNING NWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND THE OZARKS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A BROADENING ZONE OF SLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE RETREATING
ERN US ANTICYCLONE. A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WI SWWD INTO
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE SWD AND GRADUALLY MERGE
WITH/OVERTAKE A NWD MOVING WARM FRONT /CURRENTLY NEAR THE TX/OK
BORDER/ LATER TONIGHT NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER EWD INTO SRN MO. THIS
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY
TONIGHT...ALONG/NORTH OF THE COMPOSITE SURFACE BOUNDARY WHERE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND WARM ADVECTION WILL ENHANCED. MODERATELY
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /7.0-7.5 C PER KM/ OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD AND MAINTAIN OR ENHANCE EXISTING ELEVATED
INSTABILITY CHARACTERIZED BY MUCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG. THIS WILL
PROMOTE FORMATION ELEVATED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL
AS THEY DEVELOP EWD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

...SRN NV/SWRN UT/AZ...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COLD UPPER LOW OFF THE SRN CA COAST WITH
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AHEAD OF THE LOW ACROSS THE LOWER CO
RIVER VALLEY. THIS HAS ENHANCED A BAND OF CONVECTION FROM SRN NV
SWD INTO FAR SWRN AZ WHICH IS LOCATED WITHIN AN AXIS OF GREATER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BASED ON 12Z YUM AND VEF RAOBS. STRONG
SSWLY WINDS ALOFT ARE PROVIDING SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 35-45
KT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED MULTICELL AND ISOLATED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THE TROUGH ROTATES INTO THE SRN PLATEAU...WITH STRONGER CELLS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

...SRN CA COASTAL AREAS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...
COLD UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE SRN CA COAST
AND MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WITH CAPE OF NEAR 500 J/KG OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS/IMMEDIATE COASTAL ZONES FROM SMO SWD TO SAN.
RADAR AND NLDN CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...AND THERE HAVE BEEN ISOLATED REPORTS OF
WATERSPOUTS THIS MORNING. A THREAT FOR MARGINAL HAIL AND ISOLATED
WATERSPOUTS/BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WILL PERSIST WITH STRONGER CELLS
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS STORMS GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE COAST AND
INLAND BEFORE WEAKENING.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
DIABATIC HEATING...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
INCREASING BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO WEAKENING CINH AND
INCREASING TSTM POTENTIAL THROUGH AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY ALSO MAY
DEVELOP OVER ADJACENT MOUNTAINS OF SRN NM AND MOVE NEWD INTO REGIME
OF INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EWD EXTENT AND WITH TIME.
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK BENEATH RIDGING ALOFT WHICH
SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. BUOYANCY MAY ALSO BE
TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY EFFECTS OF CLOUD COVER AND WEAKER DIABATIC
HEATING. HOWEVER...30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL HELP ENHANCE THE
ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY OF ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM AND
PERSIST...WITH MULTICELLULAR MODES BEING DOMINANT AND TRANSIENT
SUPERCELL EVOLUTION POSSIBLE. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITIES OVER THIS REGION.

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KPSR [111934]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPSR 111934
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1233 PM MST THU OCT 11 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1205 PM FLOOD 2 NW BOUSE 33.95N 114.02W
10/11/2012 LA PAZ AZ DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

AZ DOT REPORTED WATER ON HIGHWAY 72 NORTHWEST OF BOUSE.


&&

EVENT NUMBER PSR1200332

$$

WOODALL

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KVEF [111928]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 111928
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1228 PM PDT THU OCT 11 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0930 AM SNOW 1 WNW ASPENDELL 37.24N 118.60W
10/11/2012 E4.0 INCH INYO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

A SPOTTER ESTIMATED 4 INCHES OF SNOW IN ASPENDELL ENDING
AT 930 AM THIS MORNING AT 8500 FEET.


&&

$$

STACHELSKI

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KVEF [111912]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 111912
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1212 PM PDT THU OCT 11 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1210 PM HEAVY RAIN 10 NW CENTENNIAL HILLS 36.38N 115.38W
10/11/2012 M2.05 INCH CLARK NV MESONET

AN AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGE OPERATED BY THE CLARK COUNTY
REGIONAL FLOOD CONTROL DISTRICT MEASURED 2.05 INCHES OF
RAIN SINCE 3 PM ON 10/10/12 NEAR HIGHWAY 95 NORTH OF KYLE
CANYON ROAD.


&&

$$

STACHELSKI

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KAPX [111825]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 111825
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
224 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0223 PM SNOW SAULT STE. MARIE 46.48N 84.37W
10/11/2012 M4.0 INCH CHIPPEWA MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS

6 HR TOTAL THRU 2 PM. SNOW DEPTH 1 IN. LIQUID EQUIVALENT
0.40 IN.


&&

$$

NTS

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KSGX [111750]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSGX 111750
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1050 AM PDT THU OCT 11 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1030 AM HEAVY RAIN CAMP PENDLETON NORTH 33.31N 117.32W
10/11/2012 E0.00 INCH SAN DIEGO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER ON CAMP PENDLETON IS REPORTING HEAVY RAIN...WITH
STREET FLOODING.

1035 AM WATER SPOUT SAN DIEGO 32.72N 117.16W
10/11/2012 SAN DIEGO CA AIRPLANE PILOT

NUMEROUS PILOT REPORTS OF WATER SPOUTS OFF THE COAST IN
THE VICINITY OF NORTH ISLAND.

1040 AM WATER SPOUT IMPERIAL BEACH 32.57N 117.12W
10/11/2012 SAN DIEGO CA AIRPLANE PILOT

NUMEROUS PILOT REPORTS OF WATER SPOUTS OFF THE COAST IN
THE VICINITY OF IMPERIAL BEACH.


&&

$$

PALMER

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KVEF [111743]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 111743
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1043 AM PDT THU OCT 11 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1038 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 NNW SUMMERLIN 36.27N 115.34W
10/11/2012 M1.77 INCH CLARK NV MESONET

A STORM TOTAL OF 1.77 INCHES OF RAIN WAS MEASURED AT AN
AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGE OPERATED BY THE CLARK COUNTY
REGIONAL FLOOD CONTROL DISTRICT JUST WEST OF THE
INTERSECTION OF ANN ROAD AND THE 215 BELTWAY SINCE RAIN
BEGAN AROUND 3 PM ON 10/10/12.

1038 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 S SUMMERLIN SOUTH 36.12N 115.33W
10/11/2012 M1.77 INCH CLARK NV MESONET

A TOTAL OF 1.77 INCHES WAS MEASURED BY AN AUTOMATED GAUGE
OPERATED BY THE CLARK COUNTY REGIONAL FLOOD CONTROL
DISTRICT NEAR TOWN CENTER AND THE 215 BELTWAY SINCE THE
RAIN BEGAN AROUND 3 PM ON 10/10/12.


&&

$$

STACHELSKI

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KVEF [111734]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 111734
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1034 AM PDT THU OCT 11 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1015 AM SNOW 2 W ASPENDELL 37.22N 118.62W
10/11/2012 M6.0 INCH INYO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

THE LAKE SABRINA BOAT RAMP MEASURED 6 INCHES OF SNOW FROM
645 AM THROUGH 1015 AM THIS MORNING AT AN ELEVATION OF
9144 FEET. SNOW WAS STILL FALLING LIGHTLY AT THE TIME OF
OBSERVATION.


&&

$$

CS/RM

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KHNX [111733]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS56 KHNX 111733
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
1033 AM PDT THU OCT 11 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1012 AM FLOOD 8 SW LOST HILLS 35.54N 119.79W
10/11/2012 KERN CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

SR 33 CLOSED DUE TO ROAD FLOODING BETWEEN LERDO HWY AND
BROWN MATERIAL ROAD.


&&

$$

JAND

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 111729
SWODY2
SPC AC 111727

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT THU OCT 11 2012

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION
SWWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
WHILE AN UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST U.S. THIS PERIOD...ATTENTION FROM A CONVECTIVE PERSPECTIVE
WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE UPPER LOW EJECTING FROM THE DESERT SW
NEWD TOWARD THE PLAINS REGION.

THIS LOW -- FORECAST TO UNDERGO A CYCLE OF WEAKENING AND THEN
RE-STRENGTHENING AS IT CROSSES THE SRN ROCKIES AND APPROACHES THE
HIGH PLAINS LATE -- SHOULD PERMIT COLD FRONTOGENESIS E OF THE
ROCKIES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. THIS BOUNDARY IS
PROGGED TO EXTEND FROM NEB SWWD ACROSS KS AND THE TX/OK PANHANDLE
REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...KS SSWWD INTO ERN NM AND PARTS OF WRN TX...
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME IS FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS PERIOD AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING UPPER LOW. AS A
SWLY MID-LEVEL JET STREAK AROUND THE ERN FRINGE OF THIS LOW
OVERSPREADS INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SLYS...THE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IS
FORECAST TO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL.

ATTM...THE LARGEST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS THE EVOLUTION OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH THE MODELS PERHAPS A BIT AGGRESSIVE
WITH MOISTURE RETURN AND SUBSEQUENT AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION
POTENTIAL. ATTM...GREATEST SURFACE-BASED SEVERE THREAT -- WHICH
SHOULD INCLUDE SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADO RISK ALONG WITH
WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL -- APPEARS TO EXIST FROM ERN NM AND ADJACENT WRN
TX NEWD INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLE REGION AND POSSIBLY INTO FAR SWRN
KS. OVERNIGHT...BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING SHOULD RESULT IN A
TRANSITION TOWARD PRIMARILY A HAIL THREAT -- WITH THIS THREAT
POSSIBLY EXPANDING NEWD ACROSS KS AND TO SOME DEGREE INTO THE MID MO
VALLEY AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 10/11/2012

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KHNX [111725]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KHNX 111725
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
1025 AM PDT THU OCT 11 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1022 AM FLOOD 8 SW LOST HILLS 35.54N 119.79W
10/11/2012 KERN CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

SR 33 CLOSED DUE TO ROAD FLOODING BETWEEN LERDO HWY AND
BROWN MATERIAL ROAD.


&&

$$

JAND

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KSGX [111719]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSGX 111719
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1019 AM PDT THU OCT 11 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0810 AM WATER SPOUT SAN CLEMENTE 33.45N 117.61W
10/11/2012 ORANGE CA FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

SAN CLEMENTE LIFEGUARDS REPORTED A WATER SPOUT OFF THE
COAST AROUND 810 AM THIS MORNING. THE WATER SPOUT REACHED
THE OCEAN SURFACE...PRODUCING SOME SPRAY.


&&

$$

PALMER

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KSGX [111715]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSGX 111715
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1015 AM PDT THU OCT 11 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1012 AM WATER SPOUT CARLSBAD 33.12N 117.29W
10/11/2012 SAN DIEGO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

DISAPATING WATER SPOUT ABOUT 200 YARDS OFF THE COAST OF
THE CARLSBAD POWER PLANT.


&&

$$

PALMER

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KVEF [111707]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 111707
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1007 AM PDT THU OCT 11 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0957 AM FLASH FLOOD 3 SSE NEEDLES 34.77N 114.60W
10/11/2012 SAN BERNARDINO CA PUBLIC

HIGHWAY 95 WAS REPORTED CLOSED AT FIVE MILE ROAD DUE TO
FLASH FLOODING.


&&

$$

STACHELSKI

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KHNX [111653]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KHNX 111653
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
953 AM PDT THU OCT 11 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0938 AM FLOOD WSW PIXLEY 35.97N 119.29W
10/11/2012 TULARE CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

STREET FLOODING ON SR 99. SLOW LANE FLOODED.


&&

$$

MENDENHALL

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KVEF [111639]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 111639
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
939 AM PDT THU OCT 11 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0852 AM FLASH FLOOD 4 NNE BULLHEAD CITY 35.21N 114.54W
10/11/2012 MOHAVE AZ PARK/FOREST SRVC

THE NATIONAL PARK SERVICE REPORTED SEVERAL ROCKS HAD
WASHED ONTO KATHERINE SPUR ROAD.


&&

$$

STACHELSKI

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 111632
SWODY1
SPC AC 111629

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CDT THU OCT 11 2012

VALID 111630Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT OVER SRN KS/NRN OK
ACROSS NRN AR/SRN MO...

...SRN KS/NRN OK ACROSS NR AR/SRN MO...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND 12Z RAOBS INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
RETURNING NWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND THE OZARKS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A BROADENING ZONE OF SLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE RETREATING
ERN US ANTICYCLONE. A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WI SWWD INTO
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE SWD AND GRADUALLY MERGE
WITH/OVERTAKE A NWD MOVING WARM FRONT /CURRENTLY NEAR THE TX/OK
BORDER/ LATER TONIGHT NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER EWD INTO SRN MO. THIS
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY
TONIGHT...ALONG/NORTH OF THE COMPOSITE SURFACE BOUNDARY WHERE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND WARM ADVECTION WILL ENHANCED. MODERATELY
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /7.0-7.5 C PER KM/ OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD AND MAINTAIN OR ENHANCE EXISTING ELEVATED
INSTABILITY CHARACTERIZED BY MUCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG. THIS WILL
PROMOTE FORMATION ELEVATED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL
AS THEY DEVELOP EWD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

...SRN NV/SWRN UT/AZ...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COLD UPPER LOW OFF THE SRN CA COAST WITH
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AHEAD OF THE LOW ACROSS THE LOWER CO
RIVER VALLEY. THIS HAS ENHANCED A BAND OF CONVECTION FROM SRN NV
SWD INTO FAR SWRN AZ WHICH IS LOCATED WITHIN AN AXIS OF GREATER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BASED ON 12Z YUM AND VEF RAOBS. STRONG
SSWLY WINDS ALOFT ARE PROVIDING SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 35-45
KT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED MULTICELL AND ISOLATED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THE TROUGH ROTATES INTO THE SRN PLATEAU...WITH STRONGER CELLS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

...SRN CA COASTAL AREAS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...
COLD UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE SRN CA COAST
AND MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WITH CAPE OF NEAR 500 J/KG OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS/IMMEDIATE COASTAL ZONES FROM SMO SWD TO SAN.
RADAR AND NLDN CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...AND THERE HAVE BEEN ISOLATED REPORTS OF
WATERSPOUTS THIS MORNING. A THREAT FOR MARGINAL HAIL AND ISOLATED
WATERSPOUTS/BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WILL PERSIST WITH STRONGER CELLS
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS STORMS GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE COAST AND
INLAND BEFORE WEAKENING.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
DIABATIC HEATING...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
INCREASING BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO WEAKENING CINH AND
INCREASING TSTM POTENTIAL THROUGH AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY ALSO MAY
DEVELOP OVER ADJACENT MOUNTAINS OF SRN NM AND MOVE NEWD INTO REGIME
OF INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EWD EXTENT AND WITH TIME.
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK BENEATH RIDGING ALOFT WHICH
SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. BUOYANCY MAY ALSO BE
TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY EFFECTS OF CLOUD COVER AND WEAKER DIABATIC
HEATING. HOWEVER...30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL HELP ENHANCE THE
ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY OF ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM AND
PERSIST...WITH MULTICELLULAR MODES BEING DOMINANT AND TRANSIENT
SUPERCELL EVOLUTION POSSIBLE. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITIES OVER THIS REGION.

..WEISS/SMITH.. 10/11/2012

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KVEF [111607]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 111607
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
907 AM PDT THU OCT 11 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 WSW LAS VEGAS STRIP 36.09N 115.24W
10/11/2012 E0.40 INCH CLARK NV TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED THAT THE INTERSECTION OF RAINBOW
AND HACIENDA WAS UNDER 6 INCHES TO A FOOT OF STANDING
WATER. RAINFALL ESTIMATES OVER THE PAST HOUR SHOWED
AROUND 0.40 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE GENERAL AREA.


&&

$$

ASG

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KLOX [111549]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KLOX 111549
LSRLOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OXNARD CA
848 AM PDT THU OCT 11 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0838 AM WATER SPOUT 24 SSW OXNARD 33.88N 119.37W
10/11/2012 PZZ655 CA COAST GUARD

MARINER SITED AND RELAYED TO USCG


&&

$$

BF

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KVEF [111548]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 111548
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
848 AM PDT THU OCT 11 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 WSW ALIANTE 36.28N 115.21W
10/11/2012 M0.95 INCH CLARK NV NWS EMPLOYEE

A NWS EMPLOYEE MEASURED 0.95 INCH OF RAIN SINCE MIDNIGHT
TODAY. THIS IS THE SECOND HIGHEST CALENDAR DAY RAIN TOTAL
RECORDED AT THIS LOCATION SINCE RECORDS STARTED IN MARCH
2008.

0745 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 SSE SUMMERLIN SOUTH 36.10N 115.30W
10/11/2012 E1.10 INCH CLARK NV NWS EMPLOYEE

AT LEAST 6 INCHES OF STANDING WATER COLLECTED ON THE LEFT
AND MIDDLE LANES OF THE 215 BELTWAY SOUTH JUST AT THE
EXIT FOR TROPICANA AVENUE.


&&

$$

STACHELSKI

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KSGX [111517]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSGX 111517
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
817 AM PDT THU OCT 11 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM WATER SPOUT SAN CLEMENTE 33.45N 117.61W
10/11/2012 ORANGE CA TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER ORA130 REPORTED A WATER SPOUT A FEW MILES OFF THE
SAN CLEMENTE COAST.


&&

$$

PALMER

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KVEF [111413]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 111413
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
713 AM PDT THU OCT 11 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM HAIL 4 NNW TOPOCK 34.77N 114.50W
10/11/2012 M1.00 INCH MOHAVE AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTER IN TOPOCK REPORTED QUARTER SIZED HAIL.
THE HAIL LASTED ABOUT 10 MINUTES.


&&

$$

ASG

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2030

ACUS11 KWNS 111407
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111406
AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-111600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2030
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0906 AM CDT THU OCT 11 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 111406Z - 111600Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP WITHIN A
RELATIVELY NARROW N/S CORRIDOR ALONG THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY.

DISCUSSION...N/S-ORIENTED BAND OF SEMI-DISCRETE TSTMS HAS
INTENSIFIED DURING THE PAST HOUR CENTERED FROM NEAR EED TO BLH. THIS
HAS OCCURRED WITHIN A NARROW PLUME OF MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S
SURFACE DEW POINTS...WITH GENERALLY 60S SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXCEPT
SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THE LOWER 70S IN THE LAKE HAVASU AREA PER MESONET
OBSERVATIONS. 12Z LAS VEGAS AND YUMA RAOBS SAMPLED MUCAPE AROUND
700-1000 J/KG...GREATER THAN DEPICTED IN SPC OBJECTIVE MESOANALYSIS.
WITHIN THE EXIT OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL JET CENTERED OVER NRN BAJA AND
GIVEN THE RATHER STRONG SPEED SHEAR NOTED ABOVE 1 KM AGL IN THE YUMA
RAOB...SETUP SHOULD FAVOR TRANSIENT SPLITTING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL THROUGH LATE MORNING.

..GRAMS/WEISS.. 10/11/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PSR...VEF...

LAT...LON 34941508 35321531 35661521 35781460 35511416 34871396
34111395 33451413 33341443 33731474 34941508

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KGRB [111324]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRB 111324
LSRGRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
824 AM CDT THU OCT 11 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0823 AM SNOW ALVIN 46.01N 88.81W
10/11/2012 M1.0 INCH FOREST WI CO-OP OBSERVER


&&

$$

SAC

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KMQT [111321]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 111321
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
920 AM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW 7 NNW ISHPEMING 46.59N 87.70W
10/11/2012 M2.7 INCH MARQUETTE MI CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR REPORT. 0.14 INCHES PRECIP MEASURED.

0800 AM SNOW 1 ESE THREE LAKES 46.55N 88.18W
10/11/2012 M2.4 INCH BARAGA MI CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR REPORT. 0.20 INCHES LIQUID PRECIP MEASURED.

0800 AM SNOW 5 ENE ALBERTA 46.67N 88.37W
10/11/2012 M4.6 INCH BARAGA MI CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR REPORT. 3.5 INCHES IN PAST 12 HOURS.


&&

$$

JMWIX

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 111301
SWODY1
SPC AC 111259

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 AM CDT THU OCT 11 2012

VALID 111300Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF SRN KS INTO
CENTRAL OK EWD THROUGH SRN MO/NRN AR TO EXTREME WRN KY/TN...

...SYNOPSIS...
TRENDS IN EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A GENERAL SEWD
MOVEMENT OF THE WELL-DEFINED CLOSED MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED OFF
THE SRN CA COAST /100 MILES SW SBA/ AT 12Z. 06Z NAM/GFS AND 00Z
ECMWF ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE EARLIER FORECAST INDICATING THIS
FEATURE PROGRESSES ESEWD REACHING THE SRN CA COAST AT 12/00Z...AND
THEN TRACKS ENEWD TOWARD SRN NV/LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...A DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER SW TX TO CO THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT E TOWARD THE SRN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...SLY WINDS OVER TX VEERING TO WSWLY OVER OK/AR
HAVE SPREAD MOISTURE NWD PRIOR TO THE START OF DAY 1. THE 11Z
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WARM FRONT HAD REACHED N TX NEAR THE RED
RIVER VALLEY TO THE ARKLATEX REGION AND NERN LA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NWD TODAY...THOUGH THE SPC SSEO AND 06Z NAM
SUGGEST THIS BOUNDARY DOES NOT REACH NERN OK/SERN KS BY 12/00Z AS
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THESE LATER MODELS INDICATE THE WARM FRONT
WILL PROGRESS NWD AND TEND TO STALL W-E FROM THE TX PANHANDLE ALONG
THE I-40 CORRIDOR THROUGH OK INTO CENTRAL AR BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SSEWD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST. BY 12Z FRIDAY...THIS FRONT SHOULD
EXTEND FROM THE OH VALLEY WSWWD TO INVOF THE MO/AR BORDER TO ALONG
THE KS/OK BORDER.

...SRN KS INTO CENTRAL OK AND EWD TO EXTREME WRN PORTIONS KY/TN...
LATEST MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT INDICATING SCATTERED TSTMS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING 12/03Z-12/12Z TIME FRAME IN A W-E ALIGNED
CORRIDOR PARALLEL TO AND NEAR SURFACE WARM FRONT. GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED FORECAST OF THIS BOUNDARY BEING A LITTLE SWD INTO
CENTRAL OK...THE SLIGHT RISK/15 PERCENT SEVERE HAIL PROBABILITY HAVE
BEEN EXPANDED SWD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SUPPORTED BY SWATH OF 30-40
KT 850-MB SWLYS AND WARM FRONTAL FORCING...ALONG WITH RELATED
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO LFC. THIS REGION ALSO
WILL EXPERIENCE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT BENEATH RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF
ROUGHLY 100-KT 250-MB JET MAX SHIFTING ESEWD ACROSS NRN MO/IL/
INDIANA. FAVORABLY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ATOP INCREASING THETAE
WILL YIELD MUCAPE VALUES 1000-2000 J/KG ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA...AMIDST 35-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES. INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR LATE EVENING OVER OZARKS REGION AND MOVE
EWD...WITH DISCRETE/ BACKBUILDING EVOLUTION FARTHER W ACROSS SRN KS
INTO NRN/CENTRAL OK REGION OVERNIGHT AS A SSWLY LLJ STRENGTHENS FROM
W TX INTO WRN/CENTRAL OK. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY MOVE INTO THIS
REGION FROM DIURNAL/DRYLINE CONVECTIVE REGIME...THOUGH THAT
POTENTIAL REMAINS MORE CONDITIONAL.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
DIABATIC HEATING...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...DRYLINE LIFT...AND
INCREASING BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO WEAKENING CINH AND
INCREASING TSTM POTENTIAL THROUGH AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY ALSO MAY
DEVELOP OVER MOUNTAINS OF SRN NM AND MOVE NEWD INTO REGIME OF
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EWD EXTENT AND WITH TIME.
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK BENEATH RIDGING ALOFT WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKER CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRY LINE/LEE
TROUGH...AND THUS TEND TO LIMIT THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.
BUOYANCY MAY BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY EFFECTS OF CLOUD COVER
ALOFT...BOTH IN TERMS OF MID-UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOMEWHAT
MUTED PACE OF SURFACE HEATING. WITH THE STORMS THAT DO FORM...30-40
KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES WILL SUPPORT SOME STORM
ORGANIZATION...WITH MULTICELLULAR MODES BEING DOMINANT AND TRANSIENT
SUPERCELL EVOLUTION POSSIBLE. LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO
BE WARRANTED FOR THIS REGION...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TSTM
COVERAGE.

...PORTIONS AZ/SERN NV/SRN UT...
ONGOING STORMS OVER SERN CA/SRN NV MAY DEVELOP EWD THIS MORNING AS
LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADS SLOWLY EWD AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM CLOSED
LOW. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS NRN AZ...SRN UT AND SRN NV...AND PERHAPS OVER PARTS OF
E-CENTRAL/SERN AZ...DURING AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST INTO
EVENING. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG-SVR GUSTS MAY OCCUR FROM
MOST INTENSE CELLS. STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER ASCENT IS FORECAST
ACROSS MUCH OF THIS CORRIDOR...IN TERMS OF BOTH LOW-LEVEL FORCING
NEAR EWD-MOVING PACIFIC FRONT AND LARGE-SCALE LIFT/COOLING ALOFT
AHEAD OF INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE CYCLONE. MOIST ADVECTION AND
SURFACE DIURNAL HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON BUOYANCY.
WELL-MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS WILL SUPPORT GUSTY TSTM WINDS...BENEATH
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FLOW ALOFT FOR 35-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
MAGNITUDES.

...SRN CA COAST...
ONGOING TSTMS...MAINLY ALONG AND JUST OFF THE SRN CA COAST...ARE
BEING SUPPORTED BY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INVOF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED OFF THE SRN CA COAST AND SWD EXTENDING WIND SHIFT.
DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW
CENTERED TO THE WNW OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL SPREAD EWD SUPPORTING
ADDITIONAL SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES AND
RELATIVELY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BOOST
INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE UP TO 500 J/KG POSSIBLE POTENTIALLY
EXTENDING INLAND ALONG THE COAST. DESPITE WEAK BULK SHEAR...
SUSTAINED CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED SVR HAIL APPROACHING 1
INCH IN DIAMETER...WHILE AMBIENT SURFACE VORTICITY COULD RESULT IN A
BRIEF WATERSPOUT MOVING INLAND AS A TORNADO.

..PETERS/JIRAK.. 10/11/2012

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KGRB [111225]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRB 111225
LSRGRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
725 AM CDT THU OCT 11 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0722 AM SNOW WINCHESTER 46.21N 89.90W
10/11/2012 M0.5 INCH VILAS WI CO-OP OBSERVER

0722 AM SNOW LONG LAKE 45.83N 88.66W
10/11/2012 M0.4 INCH FLORENCE WI PUBLIC


&&

$$

SAC

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KMQT [111145]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 111145
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
745 AM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM SNOW 3 SW GWINN 46.26N 87.50W
10/11/2012 M2.6 INCH MARQUETTE MI CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR REPORT. 0.18 INCHES LIQUID PRECIP MEASURED.

0700 AM SNOW 9 W ISHPEMING 46.50N 87.85W
10/11/2012 M2.8 INCH MARQUETTE MI CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR REPORT. 0.20 INCHES LIQUID PRECIP MEASURED.


&&

$$

JMWIX

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KMQT [111136]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 111136
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
735 AM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0730 AM SNOW 8 SW MUNISING 46.34N 86.76W
10/11/2012 M2.5 INCH ALGER MI PUBLIC

6 HOUR SNOWFALL.


&&

$$

JMWIX

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KDLH [111055]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 111055
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
555 AM CDT THU OCT 11 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0554 AM SNOW CULVER 46.93N 92.56W
10/11/2012 M1.0 INCH ST. LOUIS MN PUBLIC


&&

$$

DCANNON

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 110851
SWOD48
SPC AC 110850

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 AM CDT THU OCT 11 2012

VALID 141200Z - 191200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT FURTHER
DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE EMERGING FROM THE PLAINS IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY. BUT IT STILL
APPEARS THAT BETTER GULF MOISTURE RETURN FLOW MAY BECOME CUT-OFF
FROM THE WARM SECTOR...WHERE MEAN LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS
MAY REMAIN IN EXCESS OF 50 KT. BASED LARGELY ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
FLOW...IT DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT EVEN VERY WEAK
DESTABILIZATION COULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF A CONTINUING SEVERE
THREAT ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...IN
THE FORM OF CONVECTIVELY GENERATED OR ENHANCED DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN TOO LARGE TO DELINEATE A
REGIONAL SEVERE THREAT AREA. THEREAFTER...THE SPREAD AMONG THE
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES BECOMES QUITE LARGE CONCERNING LARGE-SCALE
PATTERN DEVELOPMENTS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS A STRONG
BELT OF WESTERLIES PROGRESSES INLAND OFF THE PACIFIC THROUGH THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. AND PORTIONS OF ADJACENT SOUTHERN CANADA.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT GULF MOISTURE RETURN...AND THUS CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL...PROBABLY WILL REMAIN LIMITED.

..KERR.. 10/11/2012

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 110730
SWODY3
SPC AC 110728

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT THU OCT 11 2012

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SAT INTO SAT NIGHT ACROSS PARTS
OF THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT SPLIT BELTS OF STRONGER WESTERLIES WILL BEGIN
TO CONSOLIDATE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AS
THE REMNANT SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW CONTINUES ITS EAST
NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. VARIABILITY IS
INCREASING AMONG THE MODEL DATA CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
FEATURE...FROM WHICH A COUPLE OF MORE DISTINCT SMALLER SCALE
IMPULSES COULD EMERGE AS IT PROGRESSES EAST OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. NAM/SREF APPEAR TO MAINTAIN THE
INITIAL CIRCULATION FORECAST TO REACH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z
SATURDAY AS THE PRIMARY UPPER IMPULSE...AND ACCELERATE IT EASTWARD
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY 12Z SUNDAY...MUCH AS GENERALLY HAS
BEEN INDICATED BY MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE THE PAST FEW DAYS.
HOWEVER...THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT A DISTINCT SECONDARY
IMPULSE...TRAILING TO THE SOUTHWEST...MAY BECOME THE MORE PROMINENT
IMPULSE SATURDAY...AS IT LIFTS EAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...ACROSS
THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
ECMWF ALSO NOW IS MORE SUGGESTIVE THAT STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING
MAY DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE INITIAL IMPULSE...BUT NORTH OF THAT OF THE
GFS.

REGARDLESS...ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF A
SUB-1000 MB SURFACE LOW...GENERALLY EAST OF THE MIDDLE MISSOURI
VALLEY TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THIS FEATURE...AND SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT/DRY
LINE ADVANCING EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...A BROAD
SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN FROM 50-70
KT...BENEATH A 70+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB JET. THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT AIR /PRECIPITABLE WATER UP AROUND 1.5+ INCHES/...WITH 60F+
SURFACE DEW POINTS AS FAR NORTH AS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

DESTABILIZATION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING PERHAPS CONSIDERABLE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM SECTOR DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW
FIELDS/SHEAR AND FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...SEVERE
POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY MAY ULTIMATELY BE HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY
INDICATED BY THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK. CONDITIONS MOST
SUPPORTIVE OF THIS POTENTIAL STILL APPEAR MOST PROBABLE TO EVOLVE
FROM PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS THROUGH CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN MISSOURI...IOWA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA...SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY LINGERS CONCERNING THE DEGREE OF WARM SECTOR
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION THAT MAY OCCUR...DUE TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF CONSIDERABLE EARLY PERIOD CONVECTION WHICH MAY SLOW
OR INHIBIT INSOLATION. COUPLED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MODEL
VARIABILITY...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS FOR HIGHER SEVERE
PROBABILITIES. BUT A SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DAMAGING WIND EVENT
APPEARS A POSSIBILITY. IT MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
CONDITIONS COULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS.

..KERR.. 10/11/2012

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 110602
SWODY1
SPC AC 110600

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT THU OCT 11 2012

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS KS/OK BORDER AREA TO
EXTREME WRN PORTIONS KY/TN...

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN FCST THROUGH PERIOD OVER
PORTIONS WRN/CENTRAL CONUS...RELATED TO PRONOUNCED CYCLONE ALOFT NOW
LOCATED INVOF CENTRAL CA COASTAL WATERS. ASSOCIATED LOW IS FCST TO
PIVOT SEWD JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH FIRST HALF OF PERIOD...THEN MOVE
ASHORE AROUND 12/00Z. CYCLONE WILL TURN ENEWD THROUGH REMAINDER
PERIOD...ITS CENTER REACHING SERN SIERRAS BY 12/12Z. STG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER LOWER GREAT LAKES AND INTERIOR MID-ATLC
REGIONS SHOULD MOVE RAPIDLY ENEWD OVER ERN NEW ENGLAND BY START OF
PERIOD. HOWEVER...BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED TODAY
OVER UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGIONS AS ANOTHER PERTURBATION --
NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER ERN MB AND SRN/CENTRAL
SK -- MOVES ESEWD ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES AND AMPLIFIES. RELATED
TROUGH SHOULD REACH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND SRN ONT BY 12/12Z.

AT SFC...QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE NOW OVER ERN/CENTRAL/SWRN TX
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NWD AS WARM FRONT THROUGH PERIOD...REACHING
PORTIONS WRN/SRN AR AND NERN OK/SERN KS BY 12/00Z. WRN SEGMENT OF
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE OVERTAKEN ACROSS CENTRAL/WRN KS BY COLD FRONT
NOW MOVING SEWD OVER SD. DIFFUSE DRYLINE SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG NWRN
RIM OF GULF RETURN-FLOW DURING DAY...EXTENDING FROM TX PANHANDLE
SSWWD OVER SERN NM BY LATE AFTERNOON. WEAK FRONTAL-WAVE LOW MAY
DEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT BETWEEN WARM-FRONTAL INTERSECTION AND
DRYLINE OVERNIGHT...AS COLD FRONT DECELERATES OVER NRN OK AND TX
PANHANDLE.

...KS/OK BORDER AREA TO EXTREME WRN PORTIONS KY/TN...
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE FCST TO DEVELOP DURING 12/03Z-12/012Z TIME FRAME
IN W-E OR WNW-ESE ALIGNED CORRIDOR PARALLEL TO AND NEAR SFC FRONTAL
ZONE. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LARGE HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY SWATH OF 30-40 KT 850-MB SWLYS AND WARM FRONTAL
FORCING...ALONG WITH RELATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC
ASCENT TO LFC. FAVORABLY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES UNDERLAIN BY
INCREASING THETAE WILL YIELD MUCAPE VALUES 1000-2000 J/KG ACROSS
THIS CORRIDOR...AMIDST 35-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES. THIS
REGION ALSO SHOULD EXPERIENCE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT BENEATH
RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF ROUGHLY 100-KT 250-MB JET MAX SHIFTING
ESEWD ACROSS NRN MO/IL/INDIANA. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR LATE
EVENING OVER OZARKS REGION AND MOVE EWD...WITH DISCRETE/BACKBUILDING
EVOLUTION FARTHER W ACROSS KS/OK BORDER REGION OVERNIGHT.
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY MOVE INTO THIS REGION FROM DIURNAL/DRYLINE
CONVECTIVE REGIME...THOUGH THAT POTENTIAL IS MORE CONDITIONAL.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
DIABATIC HEATING...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...DRYLINE LIFT...AND
INCREASING BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO WEAKENING CINH AND
INCREASING TSTM POTENTIAL THROUGH AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY ALSO MAY
DEVELOP OVER MOUNTAINS OF SRN NM AND MOVE NEWD INTO REGIME OF
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EWD EXTENT AND WITH TIME.
ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK...BENEATH RIDGING
ALOFT...FAVORABLY STG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FCST INVOF BROAD
SUBTROPICAL JET BRANCH THAT WILL BE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING WITH
TIME. BUOYANCY MAY BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY EFFECTS OF CLOUD COVER
ALOFT...BOTH IN TERMS OF MID-UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOMEWHAT
MUTED PACE OF SFC HEATING. 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES WILL
SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION...WITH MULTICELLULAR MODES BEING
DOMINANT AND TRANSIENT SUPERCELL EVOLUTION POSSIBLE. ATTM...SVR
POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO UNCERTAIN IN COVERAGE FOR MORE THAN MRGL
PROBABILITIES.

...PORTIONS AZ/SERN NV/SRN UT...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS NRN
AZ...SRN UT AND SRN NV...AND PERHAPS OVER PARTS OF E-CENTRAL/SERN
AZ...DURING AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST INTO EVENING. ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL AND STG-SVR GUSTS MAY OCCUR FROM MOST INTENSE CELLS.
STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER ASCENT IS FCST ACROSS MUCH OF THIS
CORRIDOR...IN TERMS OF BOTH LOW-LEVEL FORCING NEAR EWD-MOVING PAC
FRONT AND LARGE-SCALE LIFT/COOLING ALOFT AHEAD OF INCREASINGLY
PROGRESSIVE CYCLONE. PLUME OF RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE NOW LOCATED OVER LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY REGION SHOULD SHIFT
EWD...WITH MOIST ADVECTION AND SFC DIURNAL HEATING CONTRIBUTING TO
AFTERNOON BUOYANCY. WELL-MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS WILL SUPPORT GUSTY
TSTM WINDS...BENEATH SUFFICIENTLY STG FLOW ALOFT FOR 35-40 KT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES.

..EDWARDS/GUYER.. 10/11/2012

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 110538
SWODY2
SPC AC 110536

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1236 AM CDT THU OCT 11 2012

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FRI/FRI NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
TO THE SOUTH OF A BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC BRANCH OF STRONGER
WESTERLIES...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LINGERING CYCLONIC BRANCH
CURVING OFF THE PACIFIC...THROUGH CALIFORNIA...INTO THE INTERIOR
U.S. DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WITHIN THIS SOUTHERN STREAM...THE
REMNANT CLOSED LOW...NOW NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST...APPEARS LIKELY
TO FINALLY ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...REACHING
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. AS
THIS OCCURS...A COLD SURFACE HIGH... INITIALLY CENTERED OVER THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BUT WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT
EASTWARD...GIVING WAY TO A DEVELOPING LEE SURFACE TROUGH...AND
EVENTUALLY SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS. 11/00Z NAM...GFS AND
ECMWF ALL APPEAR INCREASINGLY SIMILAR... INDICATING STRONGER SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEEPEN ALONG A RETREATING
SURFACE FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT.


THE FRONTAL ZONE...INITIALLY EXTENDING FROM THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE REGION INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...MAY BE PROVIDING A
FOCUS FOR CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT 12Z FRIDAY. BUT
THIS IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY WEAKEN/DIMINISH AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS
RISE DOWNSTREAM OF THE CLOSED LOW...AND SUPPORTING LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION WEAKENS. NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
LATER IN THE DAY IS THEN EXPECTED TO FOCUS IN THE PRESENCE OF
STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION...NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WARM FRONT AND THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS...THEN FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
BENEATH THE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED
LOW...ACROSS LARGE PORTION OF THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL SOUTHERN
ROCKIES.

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS REMAINS THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. A SHALLOW COOL/STABLE NEAR
SURFACE LAYER MAY PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN KANSAS...AND AREAS
NORTHWARD...THROUGH THE DAY...AND PERHAPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT DAYTIME
HEATING BENEATH AT LEAST MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG ...WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS AT OR ABOVE 60F.

AS A CYCLONIC 70+ KT 500 MB JET STREAK NOSES ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...TOWARD THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND STRENGTHENING SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS PROBABLY WILL INCLUDE
A FEW SUPERCELLS...BOTH ALONG THE SLOWLY EASTWARD ADVANCING DRY LINE
AND NORTHWARD ADVANCING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE REGION.
ENLARGING CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS SEEMS LIKELY TO SUPPORT AT LEAST
THE RISK FOR TORNADOES. OTHERWISE...UNLESS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZES MORE THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...LARGE HAIL MAY BECOME
THE MORE PROMINENT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THE MOST VIGOROUS STORMS SPREAD WITH
STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING OR THERMAL/MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS
PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS...PERHAPS SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.

..KERR.. 10/11/2012

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