ACUS48 KWNS 110851
SWOD48
SPC AC 110850
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 AM CDT THU OCT 11 2012
VALID 141200Z - 191200Z
...DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT FURTHER
DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE EMERGING FROM THE PLAINS IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY. BUT IT STILL
APPEARS THAT BETTER GULF MOISTURE RETURN FLOW MAY BECOME CUT-OFF
FROM THE WARM SECTOR...WHERE MEAN LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS
MAY REMAIN IN EXCESS OF 50 KT. BASED LARGELY ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
FLOW...IT DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT EVEN VERY WEAK
DESTABILIZATION COULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF A CONTINUING SEVERE
THREAT ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...IN
THE FORM OF CONVECTIVELY GENERATED OR ENHANCED DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN TOO LARGE TO DELINEATE A
REGIONAL SEVERE THREAT AREA. THEREAFTER...THE SPREAD AMONG THE
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES BECOMES QUITE LARGE CONCERNING LARGE-SCALE
PATTERN DEVELOPMENTS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS A STRONG
BELT OF WESTERLIES PROGRESSES INLAND OFF THE PACIFIC THROUGH THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. AND PORTIONS OF ADJACENT SOUTHERN CANADA.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT GULF MOISTURE RETURN...AND THUS CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL...PROBABLY WILL REMAIN LIMITED.
..KERR.. 10/11/2012
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment