KJAX [180306]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS52 KJAX 180306
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1105 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0305 AM HEAVY RAIN FLAGLER BEACH 29.47N 81.13W
09/17/2007 M2.34 INCH FLAGLER FL TRAINED SPOTTER

A SPOTTER IN FLAGLER BEACH MEASURED 2.34 INCHES OF RAIN
IN 40 MINUTES. NO FLOODING PROBLEMS WERE OBSERVED.

0326 AM HEAVY RAIN FLAGLER BEACH 29.47N 81.13W
09/17/2007 M3.55 INCH FLAGLER FL TRAINED SPOTTER

UPDATE TO PREVIOUS REPORT SENT AT 305 AM...A SPOTTER IN
FLAGLER BEACH MEASURED 3.55 INCHES SINCE 230 AM.

0326 AM HEAVY RAIN FLAGLER BEACH 29.47N 81.13W
09/17/2007 M2.80 INCH FLAGLER FL TRAINED SPOTTER

A SPOTTER IN FLAGLER BEACH MEASURED 2.8 INCHES OF
RAINFALL SINCE MIDNIGHT.

1200 PM FLOOD RIVERSIDE 30.31N 81.68W
09/17/2007 DUVAL FL TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORTS 3 TO 6 INCHES OF WATER ON ROAD AT FIVE
POINTS INTERSECTION AND 8 TO 10 INCHES AT STOCKTON ROAD
AND INTERSTATE 10.

1200 PM FLOOD ARLINGTON 30.34N 81.60W
09/17/2007 DUVAL FL TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORTS WATER UP TO MID POINT OF TIRES AT THE
INTERSECTION OF CENTURY 21 ST. AND BOWDEN ROAD.

0125 PM FLOOD NORMANDY 30.31N 81.76W
09/17/2007 DUVAL FL DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

FLOODING ON NORMANDY BOULEVARD AT FOURAKER
ROAD...PROMPTING ROAD CLOSURES.

0125 PM FLOOD DOWNTOWN JACKSONVILLE 30.33N 81.66W
09/17/2007 DUVAL FL DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

FLOODING ALONG INTERSTATE 95 SOUTHBOUND AT INTERSTATE
10...PROMPTING ROAD CLOSURES.

0125 PM FLOOD 2 W DOWNTOWN JACKSONVIL 30.33N 81.69W
09/17/2007 DUVAL FL DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

FLOODING REPORTED ALONG CASSET AVENUE AT INTERSTATE 10.

0215 PM FLOOD 5 WNW ARLINGTON 30.37N 81.68W
09/17/2007 DUVAL FL NWS EMPLOYEE

MONCRIEF CREEK WATER LEVEL UP TO BOTTOM OF BRIDGE ALONG
MONCRIEF ROAD AND WEST 45TH ST AT SUMMER BROOKS NURSING
HOME.

0316 PM HEAVY RAIN ARLINGTON 30.34N 81.60W
09/17/2007 M4.01 INCH DUVAL FL ASOS

AT CRAIG FIELD ASOS SINCE MIDNIGHT...AND STILL RAINING.

0320 PM HEAVY RAIN JACKSONVILLE BEACH 30.28N 81.39W
09/17/2007 M8.01 INCH DUVAL FL CO-OP OBSERVER

RAINFALL SINCE MIDNIGHT.

0320 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 SE DOWNTOWN JACKSONVI 30.31N 81.63W
09/17/2007 M4.18 INCH DUVAL FL MESONET

RAINFALL SINCE MIDNIGHT. JUST WEST OF PHILLIPS HWY AND ST
AUGUSTINE ROAD INTERCHANGE.

0320 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 E UNF 30.28N 81.46W
09/17/2007 M5.39 INCH DUVAL FL MESONET

RAINFALL SINCE MIDNIGHT. JUST EAST OF THE JACKSONVILLE
GOLF AND COUNTRY CLUB.

0320 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 WSW DOWNTOWN JACKSONV 30.30N 81.73W
09/17/2007 M5.24 INCH DUVAL FL MESONET

RAINFALL SINCE MIDNIGHT. JUST SOUTHWEST OF CASSAT AVE AND
NORMANDY BLVD.

0715 PM HEAVY RAIN NORMANDY 30.31N 81.76W
09/17/2007 M5.13 INCH DUVAL FL TRAINED SPOTTER

RAINFALL SINCE MIDNIGHT

&&

$$

ENYEDI

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1978

ACUS11 KWNS 180303
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180303
WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-180400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1978
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1003 PM CDT MON SEP 17 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD...NWRN IA...MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 671...

VALID 180303Z - 180400Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 671
CONTINUES.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITHIN
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME. LATEST DIAGNOSTIC
DATA SUGGESTS LLJ IS INCREASING FROM SERN NEB INTO SRN MN WHERE FLOW
SHOULD INCREASE FROM ROUGHLY 40 KT TO NEARLY 60KT LATER TONIGHT.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...ONGOING STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ACTIVE GIVEN MOIST
PROFILES AND SUSTAINED STORM INFLOW JUST OFF THE DECOUPLED BOUNDARY
LAYER.

.DARROW.. 09/18/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...

45759625 46119517 46819468 47849439 47909310 48659307
48209180 46929180 46649230 46079233 45629287 44549281
44219358 44269436 43509425 43489489 42559493 42529659
42849764 43859759 44569712 44579646

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KMAF [180221]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMAF 180221
LSRMAF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
920 PM CDT MON SEP 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0545 PM FLASH FLOOD PECOS 31.41N 103.50W
09/17/2007 REEVES TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

6 INCHES OF WATER ACROSS CEDAR STREET

&&

$$

RBARNES

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KGLD [180148]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KGLD 180148
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
747 PM MDT MON SEP 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0315 PM HAIL LEOTI 38.48N 101.36W
09/17/2007 M1.00 INCH WICHITA KS EMERGENCY MNGR

0420 PM TSTM WND DMG 12 SW HILL CITY 39.24N 100.01W
09/17/2007 GRAHAM KS TRAINED SPOTTER

DEAD TREE 20 FT HIGH BLOWN OVER.

0450 PM TSTM WND GST HILL CITY 39.37N 99.85W
09/17/2007 M58.00 MPH GRAHAM KS ASOS

0450 PM TSTM WND DMG HILL CITY 39.37N 99.85W
09/17/2007 GRAHAM KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

DOOR BLOWN OFF A BUSINESS AND A STOPLIGHT DAMAGED. LATE
REPORT, TIME ESTIMATED.

0540 PM FLASH FLOOD HILL CITY 39.37N 99.85W
09/17/2007 GRAHAM KS TRAINED SPOTTER

1.46 INCHES OF RAIN IN 45 MIN. WATER FLOWING ACROSS ROADS
ON EAST SIDE OF TOWN.

&&

$$

SJOHNSON

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KGLD [180147]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 180147
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
746 PM MDT MON SEP 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0450 PM TSTM WND DMG HILL CITY 39.37N 99.85W
09/17/2007 GRAHAM KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

DOOR BLOWN OFF A BUSINESS AND A STOPLIGHT DAMAGED. LATE
REPORT, TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

$$

SJOHNSON

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KMFL [180106]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 180106
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
906 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0558 PM TSTM WND DMG NAPLES 26.14N 81.80W
09/17/2007 COLLIER FL OTHER FEDERAL

AN OBSERVER AT THE NAPLES AIRPORT REPORTED THAT 3 SMALL
PLANES WERE FLIPPED OVER. ALSO, A HANGAR DOOR WAS BLOWN
OFF.

&&

$$

GREGORIA

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 180100
SWODY1
SPC AC 180058

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 PM CDT MON SEP 17 2007

VALID 180100Z - 181200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY...

..CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY...
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF A LEAD MID LEVEL IMPULSE...NOW TRACKING
NEWD TOWARD ONTARIO...APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING AS REGIONAL RADARS
INDICATED DISCRETE TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND E OF COLD FRONT WHICH
EXTENDED FROM NRN/CENTRAL MN SWWD TO CENTRAL NEB AND WRN KS. SLY
LLJ EXTENDING FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY WILL STRENGTHEN
FURTHER OVERNIGHT TO 50-55 KT BENEATH INCREASING SWLY MID LEVEL
WINDS ATTENDANT WITH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IMPULSE TRACKING TOWARD THE
MID MO VALLEY. UPWARD FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN EXIT REGION OF MID
LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT NEWD ALONG COLD
FRONT FROM SRN NEB INTO SERN SD/NWRN IA TO MN WITH APPROACH OF
UPSTREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES ALREADY IN PLACE FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY TO ERN NEB SUGGESTS SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
DEVELOPING MORE DISCRETE STORMS. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY SHOULD
TRANSITION INTO MORE MULTICELL CLUSTERS OR LINEAR STRUCTURE WITH
ATTENDANT THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...AS LLJ VEERS TO SWLY
RESULTING IN SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED MORE PARALLEL TO THE COLD FRONT.

DESPITE EVENTUAL WEAKENING OF INSTABILITY...STRONG WIND FIELDS AND
SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY PERSIST INTO THE LATE
EVENING/EARLY PART OF OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

SEVERE THREAT MAY TEND TO DIMINISH FARTHER S ALONG FRONT INTO KS
WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAKER...BUT GIVEN STRENGTH OF LLJ...THIS
OUTLOOK WILL MAINTAIN SEVERE PROBABILITIES/CATEGORICAL RISK INTO
PARTS OF CENTRAL KS.

.PETERS.. 09/18/2007

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 671

WWUS20 KWNS 180036
SEL1
SPC WW 180036
IAZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-180600-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 671
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
740 PM CDT MON SEP 17 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHWEST IOWA
MUCH OF MINNESOTA
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 740 PM UNTIL
100 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH OF
HIBBING MINNESOTA TO 45 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF YANKTON SOUTH
DAKOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN THIS
EVENING ALONG SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL/NORTHERN MN INTO
EASTERN SD. THESE STORMS WILL ORGANIZE AND SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD
INTO EASTERN MN AND NORTHWEST IA BY MIDNIGHT. MODERATE INSTABILITY
IS IN PLACE OVER THIS REGION...ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING LOW/MID
LEVEL WIND FIELDS. THIS WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF SUPERCELLS
EARLY...TRANSITIONING INTO MULTICELL CLUSTERS. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CELLS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 23035.

..HART

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KTBW [180002]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTBW 180002
LSRTBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
802 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0755 PM WATER SPOUT 3 W NOKOMIS 27.12N 82.49W
09/17/2007 GMZ853 FL LAW ENFORCEMENT

RELAYED BY STORM SPOTTER FROM COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE.
LOCATION ESTIMATED 1 MILE WEST OF THE SHORELINE.

&&

$$

BSG

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KGLD [172343]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 172343
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
542 PM MDT MON SEP 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0540 PM FLASH FLOOD HILL CITY 39.37N 99.85W
09/17/2007 GRAHAM KS TRAINED SPOTTER

1.46 INCHES OF RAIN IN 45 MIN. WATER FLOWING ACROSS ROADS
ON EAST SIDE OF TOWN.

&&

$$

SJOHNSON

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KJAX [172317]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 172317
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
717 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0715 PM HEAVY RAIN NORMANDY 30.31N 81.76W
09/17/2007 M5.13 INCH DUVAL FL TRAINED SPOTTER

RAINFALL SINCE MIDNIGHT

&&

$$

PP

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1977

ACUS11 KWNS 172304
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172303
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-180030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1977
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0603 PM CDT MON SEP 17 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NEB...SERN SD...NWRN IA...MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 172303Z - 180030Z

CU FIELD IS SLOWLY DEEPENING/EXPANDING AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT FROM SWRN
MN...SWWD INTO NERN NEB. UNTIL RECENTLY...STRONG CAP HAS SUPPRESSED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THIS REGION...BUT IT NOW APPEARS
INHIBITION IS NEGLIGIBLE WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS WARMED TO NEAR
90F. ADDITIONALLY...IT APPEARS THIS REGION IS UNDER NEUTRAL-WEAK
SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF UPPER MS VALLEY SPEED MAX. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS REGION WILL CONVECT IN THE 00Z-03Z TIME
FRAME...BUT THEN EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE LATER THIS EVENING IN
SIMILAR FASHION TO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ONGOING ACROSS WRN KS. 21Z
SOUNDING FROM MPX INDICATES MORE THAN ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...BUT STRONGLY CAPPED. IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS THEN ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY BE THE INITIAL
STORM MODE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...DELAYED
INITIATION UNTIL AFTER DARK ALONG WITH STORM MERGERS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A MORE LINEAR STORM MODE.

.DARROW.. 09/17/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...

42719800 44969669 47409490 46899266 43809488 42149681

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KGLD [172253]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 172253
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
453 PM MDT MON SEP 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0420 PM TSTM WND DMG 12 SW HILL CITY 39.24N 100.01W
09/17/2007 GRAHAM KS TRAINED SPOTTER

DEAD TREE 20 FT HIGH BLOWN OVER.

&&

$$

SJOHNSON

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KGLD [172251]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 172251
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
451 PM MDT MON SEP 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0450 PM TSTM WND GST HILL CITY 39.37N 99.85W
09/17/2007 M58 MPH GRAHAM KS ASOS

&&

$$

SJOHNSON

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KTBW [172241]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTBW 172241
LSRTBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
641 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0613 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 5 NNW CAPE CORAL 26.65N 82.01W
09/17/2007 LEE FL FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

2 FUNNEL CLOUDS NEAR INTERSECTION OF CHIQUITA BLVD AND
EMBERS PARKWAY. MAY HAVE TOUCHED DOWN BRIEFLY...NO
REPORTS OF DAMAGE AT THIS TIME.

0615 PM WATER SPOUT 6 E BOCA GRANDE 26.74N 82.17W
09/17/2007 GMZ856 FL PUBLIC

2 WATERSPOUTS MOVING SOUTHWEST OVER EXTREME SOUTH PORTION
OF CHARLOTTE HARBOR.

&&

$$

RJS

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KMFL [172224]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 172224
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
623 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0558 PM TSTM WND GST NAPLES 26.14N 81.80W
09/17/2007 M62 MPH COLLIER FL ASOS

PEAK WIND GUST OF 54 KNOTS REPORTED BY NAPLES/KAPF ASOS.

&&

$$

STRASSBERG

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KGLD [172116]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 172116
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
316 PM MDT MON SEP 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0315 PM HAIL LEOTI 38.48N 101.36W
09/17/2007 M1.00 INCH WICHITA KS EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

$$

MWM

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KJAN [172055]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 172055
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
354 PM CDT MON SEP 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 AM FLASH FLOOD DOWNTOWN JACKSON 32.30N 90.19W
09/14/2007 HINDS MS EMERGENCY MNGR

FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAIN WASHED A SMALL RAILROAD BRIDGE
OUT OVER MUCKLE CREEK IN NORTHERN HINDS COUNTY. AMTRAK
TRAIN NUMBER 29 WAS STOPPED AND PASSENGERS WERE PLACED ON
BUSES TO CONTINUE THEIR TRIP...REPORTED BY MEMA

&&

$$

EC

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1976

ACUS11 KWNS 172011
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172011
KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-172145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1976
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0311 PM CDT MON SEP 17 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS...SERN CO...S-CNTRL NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 172011Z - 172145Z

THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL WILL INCREASE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON AS TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH/OUTFLOW SURGE. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD BE FAVORABLE
FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS INITIALLY IN IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE
BOUNDARY...DESPITE MODEST INSTABILITY. THE AREA WILL BE MONITORED
FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

RECENT VIS SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY DEPICT GROWING CB/TSTM COVERAGE
ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH HAD RECENTLY BEEN OVERTAKEN BY A
PRECIPITATION-INDUCED OUTFLOW SURGE FROM EARLIER CONVECTION OVER THE
NEB PANHANDLE/ERN CO. AS OF 20Z...THIS BOUNDARY ROUGHLY EXTENDED
FROM A MESOLOW AROUND 25 N SPD NEWD TO BBW AND ON NORTH INTO THE
CNTRL DAKOTAS. ALTHOUGH SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO MIDDLE 90S AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...DEW POINTS ONLY IN
THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S HAS RESULTED IN MODEST INSTABILITY WITH
MLCAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG. REGIONAL VAD/PROFILER DATA INDICATE 40 TO 50
KTS OF 6 KM FLOW ATOP RELATIVELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW /FROM 20 TO
40 KTS/ ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...A NARROW CORRIDOR
OF WEAKER LOW-LEVEL FLOW AS INFERRED BY RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INVOF THE BOUNDARY MAY PROVE FAVORABLE FOR GREATER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH INITIAL STORMS.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL REMAIN PARALLEL TO THE
BOUNDARY...UPSCALE GROWTH/CONSOLIDATION SHOULD RESULT IN LARGELY
MULTICELLULAR TYPE MODE WITH A MORE MARGINAL HAIL/WIND THREAT.

.GRAMS.. 09/17/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...

37460312 38090260 38660186 39670093 40880006 41459949
41379883 40049881 38779975 37590086 37060192 36960259

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KCHS [171948]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 171948
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
348 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0340 PM RIP CURRENTS TYBEE ISLAND 32.00N 80.85W
09/17/2007 CHATHAM GA PUBLIC

SURF SHOP REPORTS NUMEROUS RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

0340 PM HIGH SURF TYBEE ISLAND 32.00N 80.85W
09/17/2007 CHATHAM GA PUBLIC

SURF SHOP REPORTS 4 TO 5 FOOT BREAKERS IN THE SURF ZONE
ACCOMPANIED BY SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION.

&&

$$

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 171932
SWODY1
SPC AC 171930

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 PM CDT MON SEP 17 2007

VALID 172000Z - 181200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...

..UPPER MS VALLEY TO CENTRAL PLAINS...

SEVERAL IMPULSES ROTATING THRU THE PROGRESSIVE WRN TROUGH. LEAD
S/WV LIFTING NNEWD THRU WRN HI PLAINS WITH UPSTREAM SYSTEM HEADING
NE ACROSS CENTRAL ROCKIES. WITH YET ANOTHER S/WV TRACKING EWD
ACROSS SRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION STRONG FORCING WILL BE SLOW TO BEGIN
INTERACTING WITH THE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY THAT CONTINUES TO FLOW NWD
THRU THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

AT 18Z THE PRIMARY FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDED FROM THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS
SSWWD INTO NWRN KS AND WWD TO CENTRAL ROCKIES. ONLY MODEST LAPSE
RATES AND RELATIVELY WARM AIR AT MID LEVELS WILL DELAY ONSET OF
SURFACE BASED STORMS THRU MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT. STRONGEST HEATING IS OCCURRING CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FROM KS
TO SRN NEB WITH MLCAPES CLIMBING TO 1500 TO 2000 J/KG BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

AS OF 19Z SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN AREA
OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE FROM BBW SWWD TO E OF GLD THEN TO NEAR LHX.
WHILE GREATER SURFACE INSTABILITY IS IN THIS AREA...THIS REGION IS
WELL AHEAD OF ANY UPPER SUPPORT FROM THE TROUGH TO THE W WITH
SFC-6KM SHEAR GENERALLY LESS THAN 30KT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS WARM SECTOR CONTINUES TO HEAT. SEVERE THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH PRIMARILY MULTI-CELLULAR STORMS WITH
HAIL AND DOWNBURSTS WINDS.

HEIGHT FALLS AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS HIGH
PLAINS BY THIS EVENING AS TROUGH CONTINUES ENEWD ACROSS ROCKIES.
ACCORDINGLY THE MID LEVEL CAP SHOULD WEAKEN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEWD INTO UPPER MS VALLEY PRIMARILY AFTER 00Z.

GIVEN THAT THE STRONGEST STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR
NOT UNTIL CLOSE TO EVENING AND SHEAR/LAPSE RATES ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT IS STILL SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN...BOTH IN LOCATION AND COVERAGE.

AFTER 00Z SHEAR DOES BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS UPPER MS
VALLEY...HOWEVER INSTABILITY AND CINH WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR.

.HALES.. 09/17/2007

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KJAX [171930]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 171930
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
330 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0320 PM HEAVY RAIN JACKSONVILLE BEACH 30.28N 81.39W
09/17/2007 M8.01 INCH DUVAL FL CO-OP OBSERVER

RAINFALL SINCE MIDNIGHT.

0320 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 SE DOWNTOWN JACKSONVI 30.31N 81.63W
09/17/2007 M4.18 INCH DUVAL FL MESONET

RAINFALL SINCE MIDNIGHT. JUST WEST OF PHILLIPS HWY AND ST
AUGUSTINE ROAD INTERCHANGE.

0320 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 E UNF 30.28N 81.46W
09/17/2007 M5.39 INCH DUVAL FL MESONET

RAINFALL SINCE MIDNIGHT. JUST EAST OF THE JACKSONVILLE
GOLF AND COUNTRY CLUB.

0320 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 WSW DOWNTOWN JACKSONV 30.30N 81.73W
09/17/2007 M5.24 INCH DUVAL FL MESONET

RAINFALL SINCE MIDNIGHT. JUST SOUTHWEST OF CASSAT AVE AND
NORMANDY BLVD.

&&

$$

CARROLL

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KJAX [171918]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 171918
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
318 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0316 PM HEAVY RAIN ARLINGTON 30.34N 81.60W
09/17/2007 M4.01 INCH DUVAL FL ASOS

AT CRAIG FIELD ASOS SINCE MIDNIGHT...AND STILL RAINING.

&&

$$

ECZ

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KJAX [171821]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 171821
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
221 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0215 PM FLOOD 5 WNW ARLINGTON 30.37N 81.68W
09/17/2007 DUVAL FL NWS EMPLOYEE

MONCRIEF CREEK WATER LEVEL UP TO BOTTOM OF BRIDGE ALONG
MONCRIEF ROAD AND WEST 45TH ST AT SUMMER BROOKS NURSING
HOME.

&&

$$

JHESS

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KOAX [171807]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KOAX 171807
LSROAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
107 PM CDT MON SEP 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0527 PM TORNADO 3 S UEHLING 41.69N 96.51W
09/06/2007 DODGE NE NWS STORM SURVEY

EF0 TORNADO STARTED ABOUT 3 MILES SOUTH OF UEHLING AROUND
527 PM. TORNADO TRACKED TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST DAMAGING
SOME FARM BUILDINGS...TREES AND HAY STACKS. TORNADO ENDED
ABOUT 1 MILE EAST OF UEHLING AROUND 532 PM. ALL TIMES ARE
APPROXIMATE.

&&

$$

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KCHS [171752]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 171752
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
152 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0145 PM RIP CURRENTS 4 ESE HILTON HEAD ISLAN 32.19N 80.70W
09/17/2007 BEAUFORT SC PUBLIC

SURF SHOP REPORTS A FEW RIP CURRENTS AND A STRONG LONG
SHORE CURRENT AT BURKES BEACH. ALSO REPORTS VERY MINOR
BEACH EROSION MAINLY AS A RESULT OF THE WIND NOT BECAUSE
OF THE SURF. BREAKER HEIGHT WAS 4 FEET.

&&

$$

33

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KJAX [171734]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 171734
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
133 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0125 PM FLOOD 2 W DOWNTOWN JACKSONVIL 30.33N 81.69W
09/17/2007 DUVAL FL DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

FLOODING REPORTED ALONG CASSET AVENUE AT INTERSTATE 10.

&&

$$

ECZ

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KJAX [171732]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 171732
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
132 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0125 PM FLOOD DOWNTOWN JACKSONVILLE 30.33N 81.66W
09/17/2007 DUVAL FL DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

FLOODING ALONG INTERSTATE 95 SOUTHBOUND AT INTERSTATE
10...PROMPTING ROAD CLOSURES.

&&

$$

ECZ

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 171731
SWODY2
SPC AC 171730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT MON SEP 17 2007

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS KS TO UPPER MS
VALLEY...

..SYNOPSIS...
IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE
MEAN WRN TROUGH...AND POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGING FROM SE TX TO QUE.
PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT ATTM IN MOISTURE CHANNEL
IMAGERY OVER GREAT BASIN REGION. THIS PERTURBATION IS FCST TO
DEAMPLIFY AND ACCELERATE NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS AND
MID/UPPER MS VALLEY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW EMBEDDED WITHIN UPSTREAM
LONGWAVE RIDGE -- OVER AK -- IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH PERTURBATIONS
NOW OVER NRN/WRN BC AND DIG SSEWD...EVOLVING INTO CLOSE LOW OVER
WA/ORE BY 19/12Z. MEANWHILE...ELONGATED CYCLONIC SHEAR ZONE ALOFT
WILL PERSIST FROM CUBA ACROSS FL TO NEAR COASTAL NC. EMBEDDED/WEAK
UPPER CYCLONE NOW INVOF HAT MAY PERSIST..WHILE ANOTHER DEVELOPS OVER
ERN/SRN FL IN SUPPORT OF GEN TSTM POTENTIAL THERE.

AT SFC...CYCLONE NOW ANALYZED OVER CENTRAL SD SHOULD MOVE NEWD AND
WEAKEN. ANOTHER LOW -- INITIALLY OVER S-CENTRAL SASK -- SHOULD MOVE
GENERALLY ESEWD THEN EWD JUST N OF CANADIAN BORDER...ALONG WARM
FRONT NOW LIFTING NWD ACROSS ND AND MN. CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES
EXIST AMONG SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING SREF
MEMBERS...REGARDING STRENGTH OF THIS LOW. ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOVE SEWD ACROSS NRN PLAINS AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. BY
19/00Z...FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM MN/ONT BORDER AREA LOW SWWD ACROSS
FSD/SUX REGION...S-CENTRAL NEB...WRN KS...E-CENTRAL/SERN CO...WITH
DRYLINE FROM NWRN/W-CENTRAL KS FRONTAL INTERSECTION SSWWD ACROSS TX
PANHANDLE.

..CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY...
SCATTERED TSTMS IN BANDS OR CLUSTERS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF
SFC COLD FRONT THROUGHOUT DAY AND EVENING. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND
LARGE SCALE ASCENT...AHEAD OF EJECTING SWRN TROUGH...EACH SHOULD
SPREAD OVER MUCH OF SFC COLD FRONTAL ZONE...AS WELL AS OVER
FOREGOING WARM SECTOR. MEANWHILE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN
THROUGH DAY...AWAY FROM THICKLY CLOUDED AREAS...RELATED TO
INSOLATION. MEAN WIND APPEARS TO BE MORE PARALLEL TO FRONTAL
ORIENTATION FROM NEB NEWD...WHEREAS POTENTIAL FOR RELATIVELY
DISCRETE STORMS AND SUPERCELLS MAY BE GREATER OVER KS PORTION OF
OUTLOOK WITH STRONGER CAP IN PLACE. SFC DEW POINTS GENERALLY
MID/UPPER 60S...LOCALLY LOW 70S F...SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES
AROUND 2000 J/KG...JUXTAPOSED WITH 35-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR.

PRIND DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SVR ACROSS
MUCH OF MN/WI...ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC FRONT...HOWEVER PROBABLE PRESENCE
OF CLOUDS/PRECIP AND LACK OF PRECURSORY/AMBIENT HIGH THETAE IN
BOUNDARY LAYER EACH WILL SUBSTANTIALLY LIMIT BUOYANCY. THIS RENDERS
SVR PROBABILITIES HIGHLY CONDITIONAL -- AND MORE SO WITH NWD EXTENT
-- ACROSS THIS REGION.

.EDWARDS.. 09/17/2007

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KJAX [171729]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 171729
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
128 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0125 PM FLOOD NORMANDY 30.31N 81.76W
09/17/2007 DUVAL FL DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

FLOODING ON NORMANDY BOULEVARD AT FOURAKER
ROAD...PROMPTING ROAD CLOSURES.

&&

$$

ECZ

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KJAX [171644]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 171644
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1244 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1200 PM FLOOD RIVERSIDE 30.31N 81.68W
09/17/2007 DUVAL FL TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORTS 3 TO 6 INCHES OF WATER ON ROAD AT FIVE
POINTS INTERSECTION AND 8 TO 10 INCHES AT STOCKTON ROAD
AND INTERSTATE 10.

1200 PM FLOOD ARLINGTON 30.34N 81.60W
09/17/2007 DUVAL FL TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORTS WATER UP TO MID POINT OF TIRES AT THE
INTERSECTION OF CENTURY 21 ST. AND BOWDEN ROAD.

&&

$$

DEESE

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 171632
SWODY1
SPC AC 171630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT MON SEP 17 2007

VALID 171630Z - 181200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT FROM NEB TO MN...

..CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS EVOLVING TO A MEAN WRN TROUGH AND A RIDGE
FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE OH VALLEY. WITHIN THE BROADER FLOW
REGIME...ONE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER UT/NRN AZ WILL LOSE
AMPLITUDE AND EJECT NEWD TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE ANOTHER
WAVE OVER NRN CA MOVES EWD TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS BY EARLY TUESDAY.
THIS MORNING/S AZ/UT WAVE WILL BE PRECEDED BY A SERIES OF LOW
AMPLITUDE SPEED MAXIMA EJECTING NEWD FROM NRN CO/WRN NEB OVER SD/NW
MN...AND A SEPARATE SRN STREAM FROM ERN NM TOWARD ERN NEB/WRN IA/SRN
MN BY TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NEWD ACROSS
WI/MN AS A BELT OF MID 60S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS SPREADS NEWD ON
A 35-50 KT LLJ. A REMNANT LEE CYCLONE OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS WILL
DRIFT EWD TODAY AS THE MID-UPPER SPEED MAXIMA EJECT NEWD FROM THE
HIGH PLAINS...AND A TRAILING LEE TROUGH WILL BE MAINTAINED FROM E/SE
CO INTO CENTRAL NEB. THIS LEE TROUGH/WEAK CYCLONE WILL DEMARCATE
THE WRN EDGE OF THE MOIST SECTOR...AND PROVIDE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR MLCAPE VALUES OF
1500-2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON FROM NEB TO MN. HOWEVER...A WARM
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL LIKELY INHIBIT SURFACE-BASED STORM
INITIATION UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE INITIAL STORMS MAY EVOLVE
FROM MID LEVEL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD SPEED MAX NOW
MOVING NEWD FROM WRN NEB...WHILE A SEPARATE CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY
FORM BY TONIGHT OVER KS/NEB WITH THE EJECTING WAVE FROM NM.
MEANWHILE...VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED BOWING SEGMENTS/SUPERCELLS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THE ORIENTATION OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LARGELY PARALLEL
TO THE DEEP LAYER FLOW/SHEAR VECTORS...AND PRIMARILY UNIDIRECTIONAL
WIND PROFILES BY LATE EVENING...SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION MAY TEND TO
EVOLVE INTO AN EXTENSIVE NE-SW BAND BY EARLY TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL MN
SWWD INTO CENTRAL NEB. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
MAIN SEVERE THREATS...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO COULD OCCUR
IF DISCRETE STORMS CAN PERSIST IN THE REGION OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR IN PROXIMITY TO THE NRN EDGE OF THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR.

.THOMPSON/GRAMS.. 09/17/2007

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KPSR [171602]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPSR 171602
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
902 AM MST MON SEP 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0710 PM TSTM WND DMG MESA 33.42N 111.74W
09/16/2007 MARICOPA AZ NEWSPAPER

LARGE TREES DOWN...INCLUDING 50 FOOT PINE TREE NEAR
SOUTHERN AVENUE AND GREENFIELD ROAD. FOUR HOMES DAMAGED
NEAR SOSSAMAN ROAD AND MAIN STREET. POWER LINES WERE DOWN
NEAR MAIN STREET AND SOUTHERN AVENUE.

&&

$$

JR

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KCHS [171514]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 171514
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1114 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1055 AM HIGH SURF FOLLY BEACH 32.65N 79.94W
09/17/2007 CHARLESTON SC COUNTY OFFICIAL

LIFEGUARDS AT THE COUNTY PATRK REPORT MINOR EROSION SINCE
YESTERDAY WITH 4 FOOT BREAKERS IN THE SURF ZONE.

1100 AM HIGH SURF HUNTING ISLAND 32.38N 80.44W
09/17/2007 BEAUFORT SC PARK/FOREST SRVC

STATE PARK PERSONNEL REPORTS MINOR EROSION SINCE
YESTERDAY WITH SMALL ESCARPMENTS AT VARIOUS PLACES ALONG
THE BEACH.

1105 AM HIGH SURF TYBEE ISLAND 32.00N 80.85W
09/17/2007 CHATHAM GA COUNTY OFFICIAL

LIFEGUARDS REPORT 4 TO 5 FOOT BREAKERS IN THE SURF ZONE.

1110 AM HIGH SURF HILTON HEAD ISLAND 32.22N 80.75W
09/17/2007 BEAUFORT SC COUNTY OFFICIAL

LIFEGUARDS REPORT STRONG LONGSHORE CURRENT AND 4 FOOT
BREAKERS IN THE SURF ZONE.

&&

$$

33

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 171222
SWODY1
SPC AC 171220

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0720 AM CDT MON SEP 17 2007

VALID 171300Z - 181200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY...

..CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS...
PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL TROUGH NOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE
TO EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A SERIES OF LOWER AMPLITUDE
TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME AND RESIDUAL
MOIST CONVECTION SPREADING NEWD OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS
MORNING. THESE IMPULSES WILL LIKEWISE EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS TODAY...WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT BECOMES BETTER
DEFINED FROM THE NRN RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
A SURFACE WARM FRONT WAS ALREADY BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE FROM
CENTRAL IA INTO CENTRAL SD...WHICH WILL ALSO LIFT QUICKLY NWD
THROUGH THE DAY ALLOWING MID/UPPER 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS TO ADVECT
ACROSS MUCH OF MN AND THE ERN DAKOTAS. CLOUDS AND EARLY-DAY
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION AHEAD OF
PRIMARY MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL LIMIT HEATING AND
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. DESPITE THIS...INCREASED
CONVERGENCE INVOF SURFACE TROUGH AND DEEP ASCENT SHOULD BREAK CAP
AND INITIATE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN AXIS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY LATER TODAY. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR OVER PART
OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING IN
PROXIMITY TO STRONG VORT MAX/SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES.

STORMS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...
ESPECIALLY FROM NEB INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY INVOF 50+ KT SWLY
MID LEVEL JET MAX. THUS...STORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO SUPERCELLS
AND LINES THROUGH THE EVENING WITH PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS BEING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY INTO MN WHERE STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN 40+ KT
SSWLY H85 JET WHICH WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS.

..FOUR CORNERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...
TERRAIN FORCING AND INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD TSTM DEVELOPMENT. STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD SUGGESTS SOME
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS WITH A THREAT OF
LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

.EVANS/CROSBIE.. 09/17/2007

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 170753
SWOD48
SPC AC 170753

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 AM CDT MON SEP 17 2007

VALID 201200Z - 251200Z

..DISCUSSION...

LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT
IN THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL
TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND N-CNTRL STATES ON
THU/DAY 4 AND FRI/DAY 5. THESE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE POTENTIALLY
MOST ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER PERIOD WILL EXIST ON DAY 4 ALONG WARM
FRONT OVER THE DAKOTAS INTO MN. HERE...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS WILL BECOME COLOCATED WITH INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
VERTICAL SHEAR WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE
NRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE INTO DAY 5 OVER
THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT
THE BETTER FORCING FOR ASCENT AND INSTABILITY MAY TEND TO DEVELOP
NWD INTO ONTARIO.

THEREAFTER...DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF
CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE SWRN CONUS DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. MOREOVER...QUESTIONS REGARDING THE CHARACTER OF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS OVER THE PLAINS STILL EXISTS.
THEREFORE...NO ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER AREAS WILL BE DELINEATED.

.MEAD.. 09/17/2007

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1975

ACUS11 KWNS 170744
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170744
COZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-171015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1975
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0244 AM CDT MON SEP 17 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...AZ...UT...CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 170744Z - 171015Z

A FEW STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS WITH HAIL APPEAR POSSIBLE
EARLY TODAY ACROSS REMOTE SECTIONS OF NERN AZ...SERN UT...AND WRN
CO. A WATCH IS NOT LIKELY.

POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH CLEARLY EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS
EJECTING NEWD ACROSS LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. STRONG DYNAMIC
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...AND FURTHER SUPPORTED BY
AGEOSTROPHIC ADJUSTMENT IN ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER LEVEL
JET...SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DEEP-LAYER ASCENT WITHIN TROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME FROM NERN AZ TO WRN CO. DECREASING STATIC STABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE SCALE FORCING...COUPLED WITH UNUSUALLY
DEEP MOISTURE...WERE CONTRIBUTING TO MUCAPE VALUES OF 500-800 J/KG
BASED ON LATEST MODEL AND GOES SOUNDINGS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR WITHIN THE
INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR STORM UPDRAFT
INTENSIFICATION WITH A FEW DISCRETE CELLS POSSIBLY BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED AND PERSISTENT. SPC HAIL GUIDANCE BASED ON BOTH NAM-WRF
AND RUC MODELS INDICATES MORE INTENSE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL TO 1
INCH IN DIAMETER. EXPECT THIS POTENTIAL TO REMAIN QUITE ISOLATED
THROUGH EARLY TODAY AND A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.

.CARBIN.. 09/17/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GJT...FGZ...SLC...

37630866 36140989 35211132 36131194 37041164 38811124
39911014 40050863 39420813

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KJAX [170728]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 170728
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
328 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0326 AM HEAVY RAIN FLAGLER BEACH 29.47N 81.13W
09/17/2007 M2.80 INCH FLAGLER FL TRAINED SPOTTER

A SPOTTER IN FLAGLER BEACH MEASURED 2.8 INCHES OF
RAINFALL SINCE MIDNIGHT.

0326 AM HEAVY RAIN FLAGLER BEACH 29.47N 81.13W
09/17/2007 M3.55 INCH FLAGLER FL TRAINED SPOTTER

UPDATE TO PREVIOUS REPORT SENT AT 305 AM...A SPOTTER IN
FLAGLER BEACH MEASURED 3.55 INCHES SINCE 230 AM.

&&

$$

ENYEDI

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KJAX [170708]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 170708
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
308 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0305 AM HEAVY RAIN FLAGLER BEACH 29.47N 81.13W
09/17/2007 M2.34 INCH FLAGLER FL TRAINED SPOTTER

A SPOTTER IN FLAGLER BEACH MEASURED 2.34 INCHES OF RAIN
IN 40 MINUTES. NO FLOODING PROBLEMS WERE OBSERVED.

&&

$$

AENYEDI

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 170645
SWODY3
SPC AC 170643

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0143 AM CDT MON SEP 17 2007

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...

INTENSE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC NW IS FORECAST TO
BECOME INCREASINGLY CUT OFF FROM THE POLAR BRANCH OF WESTERLIES AS
IT DIGS SWD INTO NV/CA. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN
INDICATING THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD FROM THIS
EVOLVING UPPER LOW INTO THE NRN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD OWING TO CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE
NRN HIGH PLAINS. WRN PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REFORM
OVER THE NRN PLAINS AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD.

..MT/WY EWD INTO THE DAKOTAS...

STRENGTHENING SLY/SELY LLJ OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL ENHANCE THE NWD
TRANSPORT OF AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH A PLUME OF
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES PRESENT OVER THE REGION. THESE
DIFFERENTIAL ADVECTIONS WILL RESULT IN RELATIVELY FAST AIR MASS
DESTABILIZATION OVER PORTIONS OF WY AND CNTRL/ERN MT EWD INTO THE
DAKOTAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT CAPPING MAY INHIBIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANY DIURNAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING INVOF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT.

TSTM /MAINLY ELEVATED/ APPEAR MORE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING MAINLY OVER ND...TO THE N OF SURFACE WARM FRONT
WHERE WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG NOSE OF
EWD-MIGRATING LLJ. THE COMBINATION OF MODEST INSTABILITY AND
VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER SUGGEST A THREAT OF
SOME HAIL WITH THE MORE INTENSE STORMS.

.MEAD.. 09/17/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 170600
SWODY1
SPC AC 170558

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT MON SEP 17 2007

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY...

..SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH DAY 1.
HEIGHT FALLS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS TO UPPER MS
VALLEY ON MONDAY AS A TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NV/SRN CA...
TRACKS NEWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MO VALLEY...AND AN UPSTREAM
TROUGH ALONG PAC NW COAST DIGS SEWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES.
AT THE SURFACE...SSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO ADVECT
NNEWD WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING NWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY...WITH
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/DRY LINE EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL MN
SWWD THROUGH ERN NEB TO WRN KS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ESEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...AND MAY MERGE
WITH OR OVERTAKE NRN PART OF PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH BY 12Z TUESDAY.

..CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY...
MODELS SUGGEST MID LEVEL IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN MOISTURE PLUME
EXTENDING FROM MEXICO NWD INTO CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL TRANSLATE NEWD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO MID MO/UPPER MS VALLEYS IN ADVANCE OF
LARGE SCALE TROUGH EVOLVING OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE CONUS. HEIGHT
FALLS IN ADVANCE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN SSWLY
LLJ FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID MO VALLEY WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS
ALSO INCREASING ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT...MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NEWD ALONG
AND E OF PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WITH MID-UPPER 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS
REACHING ERN MN/NWRN-WRN WI BY THIS AFTERNOON.

AT 12Z TODAY...ELEVATED TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING FROM PARTS OF THE ERN
DAKOTAS INTO NERN NEB/IA WITHIN LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME. THIS ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NE TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
ATTENDANT CLOUDINESS TENDING TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION ACROSS NRN
MN/NRN WI. STRONGER SURFACE HEATING IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ALONG AND
E OF PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM CENTRAL MN SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BENEATH ERN EXTENT OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER /STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES/. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE
1500-2000 J/KG/ DEVELOPING BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS REGION.

ASCENT SPREADING NEWD WITH LEAD IMPULSES AND REACHING CENTRAL MN
SWWD TO NRN/WRN KS BY PEAK HEATING IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT TSTM
DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IN THESE
AREAS. INCREASING DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS WILL SUPPORT BOTH
INCREASING DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS WITH SUPERCELLS LIKELY. STRENGTHENING LLJ FROM AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING WILL ENHANCE HODOGRAPH CURVATURE AND AN ATTENDANT
TORNADO THREAT EXTENDING FROM ERN NEB INTO SRN/CENTRAL MN AND WEST
CENTRAL WI. GIVEN STRENGTH OF WIND FIELDS...DAMAGING WIND THREAT
SHOULD BE ENHANCED FROM NERN NEB INTO CENTRAL MN.

..FOUR CORNERS/CENTRAL ROCKIES...
TERRAIN FORCING AND INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLE OF MID LEVEL TROUGHS APPROACHING THIS
REGION FROM THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTRIBUTE TO FAIRLY WIDESPREAD TSTM DEVELOPMENT. STEEP LOW TO
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH THE
PERIOD SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS
WITH A THREAT OF LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SOME MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL.

.PETERS/CROSBIE.. 09/17/2007

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 170526
SWODY2
SPC AC 170525

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 AM CDT MON SEP 17 2007

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN MN/WRN WI SWWD INTO
CNTRL/ERN KS...

..SYNOPSIS...

A WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING 45-55 KT MID-LEVEL
JET STREAK WILL TRANSLATE FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS NEWD THROUGH
THE MID MO VALLEY AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT TO THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN
AS IT DEVELOPS NEWD FROM W-CNTRL MN INTO THE ARROWHEAD BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EWD/SEWD...LIKELY EXTENDING
FROM SURFACE LOW OVER CNTRL MN SWWD THROUGH ERN NEB TO INTERSECTION
WITH PRESSURE TROUGH OVER N-CNTRL KS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

..UPPER MIDWEST SWWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS...

AN EXPANSIVE...PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING
TUESDAY MORNING FROM PARTS OF MN SWWD THROUGH CNTRL/ERN
NEB...PERHAPS INTO KS. A DIURNAL DECREASE IN AREAL STORM COVERAGE
MAY OCCUR THROUGH THE MORNING...THOUGH LINGERING CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY SLOW THE DESTABILIZATION PROCESS WITHIN
PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR OVER PARTS OF MN/WI INTO NERN NEB/NWRN IA.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING THAT THE
STRONGEST AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR IN WAKE OF NOCTURNAL
STORMS OVER S-CNTRL/SERN NEB INTO CNTRL KS WHERE AFTERNOON MLCAPES
WILL APPROACH 1500-2500 J/KG.

INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT RENEWED TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY
AFTERNOON ALONG FRONT OVER ERN NEB/WRN IA SWWD INTO CNTRL KS. THE
PRESENCE OF 35-45 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS WITH A THREAT OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL. STORMS SHOULD RATHER QUICKLY GROW UPSCALE TO A
CONVECTIVE LINE ALONG PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT WITH A WIND/HAIL THREAT
DEVELOPING EWD ACROSS IA...NWRN MO AND ERN KS TUESDAY EVENING INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...ONGOING STORMS OVER PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN MN INTO WRN WI
TUESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD ALSO INTENSIFY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED BOWING STRUCTURES AND
MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND
SOME HAIL.

.MEAD.. 09/17/2007

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