SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172303
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-180030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1977
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0603 PM CDT MON SEP 17 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NEB...SERN SD...NWRN IA...MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 172303Z - 180030Z
CU FIELD IS SLOWLY DEEPENING/EXPANDING AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT FROM SWRN
MN...SWWD INTO NERN NEB. UNTIL RECENTLY...STRONG CAP HAS SUPPRESSED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THIS REGION...BUT IT NOW APPEARS
INHIBITION IS NEGLIGIBLE WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS WARMED TO NEAR
90F. ADDITIONALLY...IT APPEARS THIS REGION IS UNDER NEUTRAL-WEAK
SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF UPPER MS VALLEY SPEED MAX. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS REGION WILL CONVECT IN THE 00Z-03Z TIME
FRAME...BUT THEN EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE LATER THIS EVENING IN
SIMILAR FASHION TO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ONGOING ACROSS WRN KS. 21Z
SOUNDING FROM MPX INDICATES MORE THAN ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...BUT STRONGLY CAPPED. IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS THEN ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY BE THE INITIAL
STORM MODE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...DELAYED
INITIATION UNTIL AFTER DARK ALONG WITH STORM MERGERS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A MORE LINEAR STORM MODE.
.DARROW.. 09/17/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...
42719800 44969669 47409490 46899266 43809488 42149681
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