MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1943

ACUS11 KWNS 070359
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070359 COR
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-070515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1943
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1059 PM CDT THU SEP 06 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 070359Z - 070515Z

CORRECTED FOR GEOGRAPHICAL DESCRIPTOR

THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST WITH
EVOLVING MCS AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE/DEVELOP E OF WW 668 BETWEEN
04-05Z. AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL SURGE IS IN THE PROCESS OF OVERTAKING WRN EDGE OF
TSTMS WHICH HAVE PERSISTED OVER NERN KS THIS EVENING WITH CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
AMBIENT INFLOW AIR MASS REMAINS QUITE MOIST AND RELATIVELY WARM THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER MODIFICATION OF 00Z TOP SOUNDING FOR CURRENT
SURFACE CONDITIONS SUGGEST THAT CAP IS GRADUALLY INCREASING.

LARGE-SCALE FORCING ATTENDANT TO SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING EWD
THROUGH SD/NEB COUPLED WITH GROWING/DEEPENING MCS COLD POOL SHOULD
AID IN IT/S MAINTENANCE AS IT PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN
IA AND NWRN MO OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD WITH THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH THE
WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING CAP MAY TEND TO LIMIT
A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

.MEAD.. 09/07/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...TOP...

40549458 40629435 40559336 39859270 39089329 38779373
38659424 38799497 38959522 39309513 39469486 39549454

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KTOP [070356]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 070356
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1056 PM CDT THU SEP 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1052 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 SSW BAILEYVILLE 39.79N 96.21W
09/06/2007 M4.00 INCH NEMAHA KS TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL SINCE AROUND 730 PM CDT.

&&

$$

JL

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1943

ACUS11 KWNS 070351
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070351
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-070515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1943
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1051 PM CDT THU SEP 06 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 070351Z - 070515Z

THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST WITH
EVOLVING MCS AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE/DEVELOP E OF WW 668 BETWEEN
04-05Z. AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL SURGE IS IN THE PROCESS OF OVERTAKING WRN EDGE OF
TSTMS WHICH HAVE PERSISTED OVER NERN KS THIS EVENING WITH CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
AMBIENT INFLOW AIR MASS REMAINS QUITE MOIST AND RELATIVELY WARM THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER MODIFICATION OF 00Z TOP SOUNDING FOR CURRENT
SURFACE CONDITIONS SUGGEST THAT CAP IS GRADUALLY INCREASING.

LARGE-SCALE FORCING ATTENDANT TO SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING EWD
THROUGH SD/NEB COUPLED WITH GROWING/DEEPENING MCS COLD POOL SHOULD
AID IN IT/S MAINTENANCE AS IT PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN
IA AND NWRN MO OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD WITH THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH THE
WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING CAP MAY TEND TO LIMIT
A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

.MEAD.. 09/07/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...TOP...

40549458 40629435 40559336 39859270 39089329 38779373
38659424 38799497 38959522 39309513 39469486 39549454

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KOUN [070327]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 070327
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1027 PM CDT THU SEP 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0941 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 W LUGERT 34.90N 99.29W
09/06/2007 KIOWA OK AMATEUR RADIO

SCREENED IN PORCH OF A HOUSE WAS RIPPED OFF AND BLOWN
OVER THE HOUSE. THE HOUSE WAS LOCATED ON THE NORTHEAST

SIDE OF LAKE ALTUS-LUGERT ON THE GREER/KIOWA COUNTY LINE.

&&

$$

JPIKE

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KGLD [070327]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KGLD 070327
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
927 PM MDT THU SEP 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0411 PM HAIL 6 SW STRATTON 39.24N 102.68W
09/06/2007 E0.88 INCH KIT CARSON CO PUBLIC

0452 PM TSTM WND DMG 16 S BURLINGTON 39.07N 102.27W
09/06/2007 KIT CARSON CO PUBLIC

METAL BUILDING WAS KNOCKED OVER AND THE CONTENTS INSIDE
THE BUILDING WERE DAMAGED.

0548 PM HAIL 3 N SHARON SPRINGS 38.94N 101.75W
09/06/2007 E1.00 INCH WALLACE KS TRAINED SPOTTER

FIREFIGHTER REPORTED HAIL COVERING THE GROUND.

0553 PM HAIL 3 E SHARON SPRINGS 38.89N 101.70W
09/06/2007 E1.25 INCH WALLACE KS PUBLIC

DISPATCH RELAYED PUBLIC REPORT OF HALF DOLLAR SIZED HAIL
COVERING THE GROUND.

0632 PM TSTM WND GST MCDONALD 39.79N 101.37W
09/06/2007 E60.00 MPH RAWLINS KS TRAINED SPOTTER

DIME SIZED HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN ALSO REPORTED

0704 PM HAIL 7 NE NORTON 39.91N 99.80W
09/06/2007 E1.75 INCH NORTON KS PUBLIC

&&

$$

JMARTIN

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KOUN [070326]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 070326
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1026 PM CDT THU SEP 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0941 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 W LUGERT 34.90N 99.31W
09/06/2007 GREER OK AMATEUR RADIO

SCREENED IN PORCH OF A HOUSE WAS RIPPED OFF AND BLOWN
OVER THE HOUSE. THE HOUSE WAS LOCATED ON THE NORTHEAST
SIDE OF LAKE ALTUS-LUGERT ON THE GREER/KIOWA COUNTY LINE.

&&

$$

JPIKE

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KDDC [070324]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KDDC 070324
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1023 PM CDT THU SEP 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 PM HAIL 7 NNW MANNING 38.63N 100.76W
09/06/2007 E0.88 INCH SCOTT KS PUBLIC

0729 PM HAIL 2 E HEALY 38.60N 100.59W
09/06/2007 E0.88 INCH LANE KS PUBLIC

0730 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 SE MEADE 37.24N 100.29W
09/06/2007 MEADE KS PUBLIC

FIVE TELEPHONE POLES BLOWN DOWN AND A 10 FOOT BY 12 FOOT
SHED DAMAGED AND MOVED 30 FEET.

0735 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 S MINNEOLA 37.38N 100.01W
09/06/2007 E60.00 MPH CLARK KS TRAINED SPOTTER

0740 PM TSTM WND GST 12 SE MEADE 37.17N 100.17W
09/06/2007 E60.00 MPH MEADE KS PUBLIC

0745 PM TSTM WND GST 8 SE FOWLER 37.29N 100.11W
09/06/2007 E50.00 MPH MEADE KS PUBLIC

0750 PM HAIL SHIELDS 38.62N 100.45W
09/06/2007 E0.75 INCH LANE KS TRAINED SPOTTER

0755 PM HAIL 1 SE BLOOM 37.47N 99.87W
09/06/2007 E0.75 INCH FORD KS PUBLIC

0811 PM TSTM WND GST 7 WNW ASHLAND 37.21N 99.89W
09/06/2007 E60.00 MPH CLARK KS PUBLIC

0824 PM TSTM WND DMG ASHLAND 37.19N 99.77W
09/06/2007 CLARK KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEVERAL LARGE TREES DOWN. A 7-INCH LIMB FELL ON POLICE
CRUISER AND DID SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGE. ENTIRE TOWN OF
ASHLAND OUT OF POWER.

0824 PM TSTM WND GST ASHLAND 37.19N 99.77W
09/06/2007 E70.00 MPH CLARK KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

0830 PM TSTM WND GST 4 NNW ASHLAND 37.24N 99.80W
09/06/2007 E75.00 MPH CLARK KS PUBLIC

0830 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 NNW ASHLAND 37.24N 99.80W
09/06/2007 CLARK KS PUBLIC

SEVERAL TREES DOWN. POWER LINES DOWN FROM TREES BLOWING
INTO THEM.

0857 PM TSTM WND DMG GARFIELD 38.08N 99.24W
09/06/2007 PAWNEE KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

POWER POLES DOWN AND ALL POWER OUT IN GARFIELD.

0905 PM TSTM WND DMG LARNED 38.18N 99.10W
09/06/2007 PAWNEE KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

POWER LINES DOWN AND PARTIAL POWER OUT IN LARNED.

0925 PM TSTM WND GST 8 ENE LARNED 38.23N 98.97W
09/06/2007 E65.00 MPH PAWNEE KS PUBLIC

0925 PM TSTM WND DMG 8 ENE LARNED 38.23N 98.97W
09/06/2007 PAWNEE KS PUBLIC

COUPLE OF 6-INCH DIAMETER LIMBS DOWN. MANY OTHER LIMBS
DOWN.

0925 PM HAIL 8 ENE LARNED 38.23N 98.97W
09/06/2007 E1.75 INCH PAWNEE KS PUBLIC

0927 PM TSTM WND GST 17 NNW ST. JOHN 38.23N 98.88W
09/06/2007 E65.00 MPH STAFFORD KS PUBLIC

0927 PM TSTM WND DMG 17 NNW ST. JOHN 38.23N 98.88W
09/06/2007 STAFFORD KS PUBLIC

MANY 2 TO 4 INCH DIAMETER LIMBS DOWN.

&&

$$

BURKE

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KTOP [070324]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 070324
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1024 PM CDT THU SEP 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1015 PM FLASH FLOOD SABETHA 39.90N 95.80W
09/06/2007 NEMAHA KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

FLASH FLOODING REPORTED OVER COUNTY ROADS W AND 184TH AND
162ND.

&&

$$

BYRNE

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KTOP [070318]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 070318
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1018 PM CDT THU SEP 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0940 PM TSTM WND GST SABETHA 39.90N 95.80W
09/06/2007 E60 MPH NEMAHA KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

BYRNE

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KDDC [070317]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 070317
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1017 PM CDT THU SEP 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0925 PM HAIL 8 ENE LARNED 38.23N 98.97W
09/06/2007 E1.75 INCH PAWNEE KS PUBLIC

0925 PM TSTM WND DMG 8 ENE LARNED 38.23N 98.97W
09/06/2007 PAWNEE KS PUBLIC

COUPLE OF 6-INCH DIAMETER LIMBS DOWN. MANY OTHER LIMBS
DOWN.

0925 PM TSTM WND GST 8 ENE LARNED 38.23N 98.97W
09/06/2007 E65.00 MPH PAWNEE KS PUBLIC

&&

$$

BURKE

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KLBF [070311]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KLBF 070311
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1011 PM CDT THU SEP 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0507 PM TSTM WND GST 5 N BIG SPRINGS 41.14N 102.07W
09/06/2007 E60.00 MPH DEUEL NE CO-OP OBSERVER

0510 PM HAIL 2 N BIG SPRINGS 41.09N 102.07W
09/06/2007 E0.88 INCH DEUEL NE CO-OP OBSERVER

HAIL COVERED GROUND. HAIL WAS WIND DRIVEN.

0523 PM HAIL BRULE 41.10N 101.89W
09/06/2007 E0.75 INCH KEITH NE TRAINED SPOTTER

HEAVY RAIN...VERY GUSTY WINDS

0712 PM HAIL 12 SE STOCKVILLE 40.41N 100.22W
09/06/2007 E0.50 INCH FRONTIER NE PUBLIC

HAIL COVERED THE GROUND

&&

$$

KECK

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KTOP [070307]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 070307
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1007 PM CDT THU SEP 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1003 PM HAIL 6 S SUMMERFIELD 39.90N 96.35W
09/06/2007 M1.00 INCH MARSHALL KS TRAINED SPOTTER

QUARTER SIZE HAIL. MAY BE SOME BIGGER STONES WITHIN. ALSO
HAD 4 INCHES OF RAIN IN ABOUT 2 HOURS.

&&

$$

JL

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KGID [070305]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KGID 070305
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1005 PM CDT THU SEP 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0720 PM HAIL HOLDREGE 40.44N 99.38W
09/06/2007 E1.25 INCH PHELPS NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

QUARTER TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED BY LOCAL
LAW ENFORCEMENT

0725 PM HAIL HOLDREGE 40.44N 99.38W
09/06/2007 E0.88 INCH PHELPS NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

0738 PM HAIL 6 SE HOLDREGE 40.38N 99.29W
09/06/2007 E1.50 INCH PHELPS NE STORM CHASER

0744 PM TSTM WND GST ARAPAHOE 40.31N 99.90W
09/06/2007 M68.00 MPH FURNAS NE DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

MEASURED 68 MPH THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST AT A DEPARTMENT OF
ROADS WEATHER SITE

0800 PM HAIL 2 S MINDEN 40.47N 98.95W
09/06/2007 M1.00 INCH KEARNEY NE NWS EMPLOYEE

0816 PM HAIL GIBBON 40.75N 98.84W
09/06/2007 E0.50 INCH BUFFALO NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

0828 PM TSTM WND GST SHELTON 40.78N 98.73W
09/06/2007 E60.00 MPH BUFFALO NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT ESTIMATED THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
OF 50 TO 60 MPH

0845 PM TSTM WND GST 2 N FRANKLIN 40.13N 98.95W
09/06/2007 E60.00 MPH FRANKLIN NE NWS EMPLOYEE

NICKEL SIZE HAIL ALONG WITH THE WIND

0854 PM HAIL 2 W FRANKLIN 40.10N 98.99W
09/06/2007 E1.25 INCH FRANKLIN NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

ESTIMATED 60 MPH WINDS ACCOMPANIED HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL

&&

$$

NWS

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KLBF [070301]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KLBF 070301
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1001 PM CDT THU SEP 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0507 PM TSTM WND GST 5 N BIG SPRINGS 41.14N 102.07W
09/06/2007 E60.00 MPH DEUEL NE CO-OP OBSERVER

0510 PM HAIL 2 N BIG SPRINGS 41.09N 102.07W
09/06/2007 E0.88 INCH DEUEL NE CO-OP OBSERVER

HAIL COVERED GROUND. HAIL WAS WIND DRIVEN.

0523 PM HAIL BRULE 41.10N 101.89W
09/06/2007 E0.75 INCH KEITH NE TRAINED SPOTTER

HEAVY RAIN...VERY GUSTY WINDS

0712 PM HAIL 12 SE STOCKVILLE 40.41N 100.22W
09/06/2007 E0.50 INCH FRONTIER NE PUBLIC

HAIL COVERED THE GROUND

&&

$$

TKECK

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KDDC [070253]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 070253
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
953 PM CDT THU SEP 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0927 PM TSTM WND DMG 17 NNW ST. JOHN 38.23N 98.88W
09/06/2007 STAFFORD KS PUBLIC

MANY 2 TO 4 INCH DIAMETER LIMBS DOWN.

0927 PM TSTM WND GST 17 NNW ST. JOHN 38.23N 98.88W
09/06/2007 E65.00 MPH STAFFORD KS PUBLIC

&&

$$

BURKE

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KICT [070246]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 070246
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
946 PM CDT THU SEP 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0933 PM TSTM WND GST GREAT BEND 38.36N 98.81W
09/06/2007 M61.00 MPH BARTON KS BROADCAST MEDIA

KSN WEATHER LAB.

&&

$$

LFW

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KOAX [070245]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KOAX 070245
LSROAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
944 PM CDT THU SEP 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0854 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 NNE MODALE 41.67N 95.98W
09/06/2007 HARRISON IA AMATEUR RADIO

LARGE TREE BRANCHES DOWN.

0937 PM FLASH FLOOD MISSOURI VALLEY 41.56N 95.90W
09/06/2007 HARRISON IA AMATEUR RADIO

MAIN STREET IN TOWN OVER 4 INCHES OVER ROADS

&&

$$

SMITH

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KICT [070238]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 070238
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
938 PM CDT THU SEP 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0935 PM TSTM WND GST 2 W GREAT BEND 38.36N 98.85W
09/06/2007 M61 MPH BARTON KS ASOS

&&

$$

LFW

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1942

ACUS11 KWNS 070230
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070230
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-070400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1942
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0930 PM CDT THU SEP 06 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN NEB...NRN KS INTO WRN IA AND
NWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 667...668...

VALID 070230Z - 070400Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
667...668...CONTINUES.

THROUGH 04Z...GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST FROM PARTS OF S-CNTRL NEB/N-CNTRL KS
INTO SERN NEB AND NERN KS. LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH HOURLY
RATES OF 1-2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED SEVERE
THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS REMAINING PORTIONS OF WW AREAS.

AS OF 0205Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED THE MOST INTENSE
STORMS OVER FRANKLIN COUNTY NEB INTO SMITH COUNTY KS AS WELL AS
MARSHALL INTO NEMAHA COUNTIES KS. THE FORMER CLUSTER OF STORMS IS
LOCATED ALONG LOW-LEVEL COLD FRONTAL SURGE AND WITHIN ZONE OF
STRONGER DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO CNTRL
PARTS OF SD/NEB. THE LATTER STORM CLUSTER /WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES/ REMAINS FOCUSED ALONG WARM FRONT...DRIVEN LARGELY BY
LOW-LEVEL WAA ALONG 40-45 KT LLJ AXIS.

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE...IT
APPEARS THAT THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST OVER NERN
KS INTO SERN NEB WHERE LLJ IS CONTRIBUTING TO GREATEST INFLUX OF
HOTTER AND MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR. CURRENT TOP VWP REMAINS
QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF
300-350 M2/S2. WHILE AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE...CONSIDERABLE
OUTFLOW EMANATING FROM GROWING TSTM COMPLEX SHOULD EVENTUALLY
UNDERCUT SYSTEM WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY
SEVERE THREATS.

MOREOVER...BACKBUILDING STORM DEVELOPMENT/ECHO TRAINING WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE OWING TO NEAR NORMAL ORIENTATION OF WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW
COMPOSITE BOUNDARY TO LLJ AXIS. THIS WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL...NAMELY OVER WASHINGTON...MARSHALL...NEMAHA AND BROWN
COUNTIES IN NERN KS WHERE LOCAL HOURLY RATES WILL APPROACH 1-2
INCHES. THESE PROCESSES SHOULD EVENTUALLY CEASE ONCE SURFACE COLD
FRONT OVERTAKES AREA.

.MEAD.. 09/07/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

42489832 42439686 42249560 41929559 41919500 41259505
41239481 40719475 40469452 39419449 39309509 38939508
38969997 38570014 38500092 38080110 38100220 38510228
38530318 39080315 39210150 39790133 39790085 40110075
40110035 41070037 41129932 41939926 41879841

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KTOP [062204]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 062204
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
504 PM CDT THU SEP 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0452 PM HAIL NETAWAKA 39.60N 95.72W
09/06/2007 M1.00 INCH JACKSON KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

REPORTS OF HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE FROM SPOTTER FOR
COUNTY LAW ENFORCEMENT.

&&

$$

JL

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 667

WWUS20 KWNS 062147
SEL7
SPC WW 062147
COZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-070400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 667
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
450 PM CDT THU SEP 6 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EAST CENTRAL COLORADO
NORTHWEST KANSAS
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 450 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTHWEST OF
BROKEN BOW NEBRASKA TO 50 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GOODLAND KANSAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS WW THIS EVENING AHEAD OF VIGOROUS
MID/UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. STORMS MAY REMAIN SLIGHTLY BEHIND
SURFACE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...VERY STRONG SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS AND SMALL LINES. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26025.

..EVANS

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KUNR [062147]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 062147
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
347 PM MDT THU SEP 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0333 PM HAIL 1 N NEMO 44.20N 103.51W
09/06/2007 E0.88 INCH LAWRENCE SD TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

WETENKAMP

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KCYS [062027]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 062027
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
227 PM MDT THU SEP 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0220 PM HAIL CHADRON 42.83N 103.00W
09/06/2007 E0.25 INCH DAWES NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

GRIFFITH

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1937

ACUS11 KWNS 062011
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062011
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-062145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1937
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0311 PM CDT THU SEP 06 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO...NWRN KS...SCNTRL/CNTRL NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 062011Z - 062145Z

INHIBITION HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
FROM NERN CO INTO SWRN NEB...IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD
FRONT. THIS IS DUE MOSTLY TO THE VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES THAT HAVE
DEVELOPED WITHIN A NARROW WEDGE OF SUNNY SKIES. SOMEWHAT STRONGER
MID LEVEL FLOW...H5 SPEEDS ON THE ORDER OF 30-40KT...IS NOW
SPREADING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...COINCIDENT WITH LEADING EDGE OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IT APPEARS THIS INCREASE IN FLOW WILL ASSIST
ONGOING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NERN CO. LATEST THINKING IS
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE...BOTH ALONG
AND WITHIN POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS. SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST A FEW
SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE DESPITE THE RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW.

.DARROW.. 09/06/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU...

39490378 39840227 40220083 41529956 40989848 38930020
38740358

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KLSX [061958]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 061958
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
258 PM CDT THU SEP 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0215 PM TORNADO 4 ENE JERSEYVILLE 39.14N 90.26W
09/06/2007 JERSEY IL TRAINED SPOTTER

BRIEF TOUCHDOWN

&&

$$

FGLASS

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KLSX [061957]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 061957
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
257 PM CDT THU SEP 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0245 PM FUNNEL CLOUD MEDORA 39.18N 90.14W
09/06/2007 MACOUPIN IL FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

$$

FGLASS

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KLSX [061956]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 061956
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
256 PM CDT THU SEP 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0210 PM TORNADO 4 SE JERSEYVILLE 39.08N 90.28W
09/06/2007 JERSEY IL LAW ENFORCEMENT

BRIEF TOUCHDOWN. ROOF AND TREE DAMAGE TO A RESIDENCE IN
THE CRYSTAL LAKE SUBDIVISON ALONG CRYSTAL LAKE RD EAST OF
US HIGHWAY 67.

&&

$$

FGLASS

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 061954
SWODY1
SPC AC 061951

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 PM CDT THU SEP 06 2007

VALID 062000Z - 071200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND MIDWEST STATES...

..CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST STATES...
UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER ERN WY/NRN CO/WRN NEB AND SD
PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD THIS FORECAST
PERIOD TOWARD THE MID MO TO UPPER MS VALLEYS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATED A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM NERN-NORTH CENTRAL MN SWWD THROUGH SERN SD TO CENTRAL
NEB TO WRN KS. ALTHOUGH SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT
MOISTURE NWD IN ADVANCE OF THIS BOUNDARY...INCREASING CLOUDINESS
WITHIN THIS MOIST AXIS IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER LIMIT SURFACE HEATING
AND DEVELOPMENT OF GREATER INSTABILITY.

THUS FAR...TSTM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN RATHER LIMITED IN COVERAGE. LOW
LEVEL WAA ALONG NRN EXTENT OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING INTO
NERN MN IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ONGOING BACKBUILDING CLUSTER OF
TSTMS WITH WEAK INSTABILITY SUPPORTING A THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL
AND STRONGER WIND GUSTS. MEANWHILE...ONGOING TSTM COMPLEX
APPROACHING SERN SD/NERN NEB APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANAFRONT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONGER WITHIN
POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. FARTHER W...ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED
MAINLY ACROSS ERN WY TO FAR WRN NEB/NRN CO ATTENDANT WITH UPPER
TROUGH.

ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ACROSS WRN NEB AND POTENTIALLY
INTO WRN SD AS STRONGER FORCING SPREADS EWD. DESPITE WEAKER
INSTABILITY LOCATED WITHIN THIS POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS...STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER CORES AND ISOLATED HAIL. PRESENT
INDICATIONS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THESE TSTMS WILL SPREAD EWD
INTO MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL NEB AND INTENSIFY
FURTHER DURING THE EVENING. STRENGTH OF FORCING AND DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY SUGGEST THE LIKELIHOOD OF ORGANIZATION INTO A LINEAR MCS
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST SD INTO NORTHERN KS...MOVING INTO PARTS OF
MN/IA/MO DURING THE NIGHT. THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN
A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z.

..MO/IL...
ASCENT ATTENDANT WITH REMNANT UPPER LOW...NOW CENTERED OVER ERN
MO...WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTMS...SOME WITH STRONGER CORES...
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
MODEST INSTABILITY ATTRIBUTED TO WEAK LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH WEAK
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITHIN THE MOIST/TROPICAL AIR
MASS AND ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL TRANSIENT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATIONS. THE POTENTIAL FOR A
BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO IS MOST LIKELY FROM SRN MO/FAR NERN AR/FAR WRN
TN INTO WEST-CENTRAL IL ALONG AND WEST OF THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL
WINDS.

.PETERS.. 09/06/2007

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KPDT [061954]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KPDT 061954
LSRPDT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1254 PM PDT THU SEP 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0315 PM HAIL 1 N WINLOCK 44.91N 119.89W
08/31/2007 E1.00 INCH WHEELER OR TRAINED SPOTTER

QUARTER SIZE HAIL .50 INCHES OF RAIN 2 FIRES STARTED.

&&

$$

MVESCIO

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KLSX [061935]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 061935
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
235 PM CDT THU SEP 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0225 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 5 E JERSEYVILLE 39.12N 90.23W
09/06/2007 JERSEY IL LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

FGLASS

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KLSX [061845]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 061845
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
145 PM CDT THU SEP 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0144 PM HEAVY RAIN GRAY SUMMIT 38.49N 90.82W
09/06/2007 M2.50 INCH FRANKLIN MO CO-OP OBSERVER

2.5 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR TODAY

&&

$$

FGLASS

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KSGF [061838]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 061838
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
138 PM CDT THU SEP 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0136 PM FLASH FLOOD NIXA 37.04N 93.29W
09/06/2007 CHRISTIAN MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

THE INTERSECTIONS OF HIGHWAY 14, CC AND CHEYENNE ROAD
ALONG WITH TRACKER ROAD WEST OF HIGHWAY 160 ARE
IMPASSABLE TO MOTORISTS DUE TO HIGH WATER.

&&

$$

HATCH

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KGJT [061754]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 061754
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1153 AM MDT THU SEP 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1147 AM FUNNEL CLOUD 10 WSW MAYBELL 40.46N 108.26W
09/06/2007 MOFFAT CO FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

SPOTTED BY FIRE DEPARTMENT PERSONNEL.

&&

$$

JPRINGLE

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KSGF [061748]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 061748
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1248 PM CDT THU SEP 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1246 PM FLASH FLOOD GOLDEN CITY 37.39N 94.09W
09/06/2007 BARTON MO EMERGENCY MNGR

HIGHWAYS T, U AND 126 HAVE FLOODED SECTIONS IN AND AROUND
THE CITY.

&&

$$

HATCH

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KSGF [061735]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 061735
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1235 PM CDT THU SEP 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1233 PM FLASH FLOOD 3 S LOCKWOOD 37.34N 93.95W
09/06/2007 DADE MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

HIGHWAY 96 NORTH OG THE DADE, LAWRENCE COUNTY LINE

FLOODED AND IMPASSABLE TO MOTORISTS AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS.

&&

$$

HATCH

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 061728
SWODY2
SPC AC 061726

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT THU SEP 06 2007

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST...
UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER UT/WY/CO...IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN POLAR WESTERLIES AS THIS MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
REGIME SINKS SWD INTO THE NRN LOWER 48 STATES ON FRIDAY. THIS UPPER
TROUGH WILL ACCELERATE NEWD FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND REACH QUEBEC LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT ALSO TRACKS
QUICKLY NEWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH ONTARIO TO NRN
QUEBEC BY 12Z SATURDAY. NRN EXTENT OF TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE SRN EXTENT SETTLES SEWD INTO
THE MIDWEST AND SRN PLAINS.

TSTMS...POTENTIALLY IN THE FORM OF A LINEAR MCS...SHOULD BE ONGOING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY AT 12Z FRIDAY. STRONG FORCING
ATTENDANT WITH THE ACCELERATING UPPER TROUGH AND ALONG THE GREAT
LAKES PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND
FIELDS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS FROM PARTS OF IL INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION.
HOWEVER...WEAK PRE-FRONTAL THERMODYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
LAPSES RATES AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SPREADING NEWD AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WEAK INSTABILITY. THUS...THIS
OUTLOOK WILL MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES FROM THE MID MS
VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY.

..NRN HIGH PLAINS...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE NRN BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS EXPECTED TO DIG SE TOWARD THE NRN
ROCKIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN TRACK EWD REACHING THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS BY 12Z SATURDAY. IN THE LOW LEVELS...LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS
EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN MT FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO
HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH ALOFT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM INDUCING SELY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW AND ADVECTING UPPER 40S SURFACE DEW POINTS BACK INTO CENTRAL
MT. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO AT LEAST WEAK BUOYANCY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH BASED TSTMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONGER LARGE SCALE ASCENT
SPREADS SEWD. ALTHOUGH STRONG WLY MID LEVEL WINDS/DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS...THE LACK OF MORE
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED NWWD WILL MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITIES ACROSS THIS REGION. A FEW OF THE STRONGER CORES WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR HAIL.

.PETERS.. 09/06/2007

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KSGF [061728]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 061728
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1228 PM CDT THU SEP 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM FLASH FLOOD NEOSHO 36.87N 94.37W
09/06/2007 NEWTON MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEVERAL RAODS IN THE NEOSHO AREA ARE CLOSED DUE TO HIGH
WATER.

&&

$$

HATCH

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KSGF [061726]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 061726
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1226 PM CDT THU SEP 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 AM FLASH FLOOD NIXA 37.04N 93.29W
09/06/2007 CHRISTIAN MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

TWO SECTIONS OF HIGHWAY 14 FLOODED AND IMPASSABLE IN THE
NIXA AREA.

&&

$$

HATCH

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KSGF [061713]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 061713
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1213 PM CDT THU SEP 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1030 AM FLASH FLOOD 2 S RED OAK 37.20N 94.01W
09/06/2007 LAWRENCE MO NWS EMPLOYEE

WATER OVER THE ROAD ON HIGHWAY 96.

&&

$$

HATCH

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KSGF [061654]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 061654
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1154 AM CDT THU SEP 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1146 AM FLASH FLOOD 3 S LOCKWOOD 37.34N 93.95W
09/06/2007 DADE MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

HIGHWAY 96 IS FLOODED 1 MILE NORTH OF THE DADE, LAWRENCE
COUNTY LINE.

&&

$$

HATCH

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KSGF [061648]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 061648
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1148 AM CDT THU SEP 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 AM FLASH FLOOD NORTHVIEW 37.29N 93.00W
09/06/2007 WEBSTER MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

SECTIONS OF GREENWOOD ROAD NEAR COLOGNA ROAD AND GERETT
ROAD WATER COVERED AND IMPASSABLE TO MOTORISTS.

&&

$$

HATCH

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 061627
SWODY1
SPC AC 061624

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1124 AM CDT THU SEP 06 2007

VALID 061630Z - 071200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND MIDWEST STATES...

..CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST STATES...
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOWS STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS UT/WY/CO. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS HELPING TO
TRANSPORT RICH MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND DESTABILIZE AIR MASS. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
PARTS OF SRN NEB/SRN MN AND MUCH OF IA BY 00Z. POCKETS OF HEATING
AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF
900-1500 J/KG.

PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT INITIAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POST-FRONTAL OVER WESTERN NEB AS STRONGER FORCING APPROACHES.
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
PROMOTE A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS IN THESE AREAS. STORMS WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL NEB AND
INTENSIFY FURTHER DURING THE EVENING. STRENGTH OF FORCING AND
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SUGGEST THE LIKELIHOOD OF ORGANIZATION INTO A
LINEAR MCS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST SD INTO NORTHERN KS...MOVING
INTO PARTS OF MN/IA/MO DURING THE NIGHT. THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THROUGH AT LEAST
06Z.

..MO/IL...
REMNANT UPPER LOW IS TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING ACROSS MO.
ISOLATED STORMS IN THIS REGIME HAVE SHOWN LOW/MID LEVEL ROTATION AND
BRIEF TORNADOES FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THAT SCENARIO MAY
CONTINUE TODAY. AXIS WHERE A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO ARE MOST LIKELY
TODAY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWEST MO IN WEST-CENTRAL IL ALONG AND WEST OF
THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS.

.HART/GUYER.. 09/06/2007

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KSGF [061607]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 061607
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1107 AM CDT THU SEP 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1105 AM FLASH FLOOD 4 SE LAMAR 37.45N 94.22W
09/06/2007 BARTON MO EMERGENCY MNGR

HIGHWAY T, 1 MILE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 160 IS IMPASSABLE DUE
TO HIGH WATER. THE DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION IS
CLOSING THE ROAD AT THIS TIME.

&&

$$

HATCH

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KSGF [061545]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 061545
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1045 AM CDT THU SEP 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1044 AM HEAVY RAIN WAYNE 36.64N 93.96W
09/06/2007 E10.50 INCH BARRY MO BROADCAST MEDIA

OBSERVERS IN WAYNE HAVE ESTIMATED THAT AROUND 10.50
INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE LAST 3 DAYS.

&&

$$

HATCH

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KSGF [061538]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 061538
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1038 AM CDT THU SEP 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1037 AM FLASH FLOOD 5 N CRANE 36.98N 93.57W
09/06/2007 STONE MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

HIGHWAY 413 NORTH OF TOWN IMPASSABLE TO MOTORISTS DUE TO
HIGH, FLOWING WATER.

&&

$$

HATCH

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KLZK [061536]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLZK 061536
LSRLZK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1036 AM CDT THU SEP 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1230 PM FLASH FLOOD DES ARC 34.98N 91.51W
09/05/2007 PRAIRIE AR CO-OP OBSERVER

HEAVY RAIN CAUSED STREET FLOODING IN TOWN.

&&

$$

46

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KSGF [061534]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 061534
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1034 AM CDT THU SEP 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1033 AM FLASH FLOOD AVILLA 37.20N 94.13W
09/06/2007 JASPER MO NWS EMPLOYEE

3 TO 5 INCHES OF WATER FLOWING ACROSS HIGHWAY 96.

&&

$$

HATCH

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KJAX [061502]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 061502
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1102 AM EDT THU SEP 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1055 AM WATER SPOUT 5 NE CUMBERLAND ISLAND 30.88N 81.39W
09/06/2007 AMZ450 GA SHIP

NARROW WATERSPOUT SPOTTED EAST OF CUMBERLAND ISLAND BY
TUGBOAT CAPTAIN.

&&

$$

JHESS

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KSGF [061455]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 061455
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
953 AM CDT THU SEP 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0520 AM TORNADO CLEVER 37.03N 93.47W
09/06/2007 CHRISTIAN MO NWS STORM SURVEY

EF-0 TORNADO CONFIRMED IN CLEVER. TRACK WAS 0.5 MILES
LONG AND 50 YARDS WIDE WITH DAMAGE TO A BANK...TREES AND
OUTDOOR FURNISHING. TORNADO LIFTED NEAR INTERSECTION OF
HIGHWAYS P AND 14.

&&

$$

MTERRY

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KSLC [061445]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KSLC 061445
LSRSLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
845 AM MDT THU SEP 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0145 PM HAIL HENEFER 41.02N 111.49W
09/05/2007 M1.00 INCH SUMMIT UT BROADCAST MEDIA

TIME ESTIMATED

0145 PM HAIL COALVILLE 40.92N 111.39W
09/05/2007 E0.75 INCH SUMMIT UT BROADCAST MEDIA

TIME ESTIMATED.

0210 PM HAIL SUNNYSIDE 39.55N 110.40W
09/05/2007 E0.75 INCH CARBON UT TRAINED SPOTTER

0215 PM HAIL EVANSTON 41.26N 110.96W
09/05/2007 E1.00 INCH UINTA WY LAW ENFORCEMENT

0410 PM HAIL SPRINGVILLE 40.16N 111.61W
09/05/2007 E0.75 INCH UTAH UT PUBLIC

0415 PM HAIL SPRINGVILLE 40.16N 111.61W
09/05/2007 E0.50 INCH UTAH UT TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

MPS

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KSGF [061406]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 061406
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
906 AM CDT THU SEP 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0905 AM FLASH FLOOD POWELL 36.62N 94.18W
09/06/2007 MCDONALD MO CO-OP OBSERVER

SEVERAL LOW WATER CROSSINGS IN THE POWELL AREA ARE
IMPASSABLE TO MOTORISTS.

&&

$$

HATCH

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KTSA [061400]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KTSA 061400
LSRTSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
859 AM CDT THU SEP 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0516 AM TSTM WND DMG ELM SPRINGS 36.21N 94.23W
09/06/2007 WASHINGTON AR PUBLIC

LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN SOUTH OF THE CREEKS GOLF COURSE.

0556 AM TSTM WND DMG BELLA VISTA 36.43N 94.23W
09/06/2007 BENTON AR LAW ENFORCEMENT

LARGE TREE DOWN DUE TO HIGH WIND.

&&

$$

RBD

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KSGF [061345]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 061345
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
845 AM CDT THU SEP 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0835 AM FUNNEL CLOUD 2 W SHELL KNOB 36.63N 93.67W
09/06/2007 BARRY MO TRAINED SPOTTER

FUNNEL CLOUD SIGHTED NORTHEAST OF ROARING RIVER STATE
PARK...WEST OF SHELL KNOB.

&&

$$

MTERRY

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KSGF [061329]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 061329
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
829 AM CDT THU SEP 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0827 AM FLASH FLOOD CASSVILLE 36.68N 93.87W
09/06/2007 BARRY MO AMATEUR RADIO

SEVERAL ROADS FLOODED.

&&

$$

MTERRY

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KSGF [061320]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 061320
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
820 AM CDT THU SEP 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0532 AM FLASH FLOOD SPRINGFIELD 37.20N 93.29W
09/06/2007 GREENE MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

WATER UP TO A FOOT DEEP AT INTERSECTION OF CAMPBELL AND
MADISON.

&&

$$

AFOSTER

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KSGF [061318]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 061318
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
818 AM CDT THU SEP 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0531 AM FLASH FLOOD SPRINGFIELD 37.20N 93.29W
09/06/2007 GREENE MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

WATER RUNNING OVER HIGHWAY 164 BETWEEN GOLDEN AND
SUNRISE.

&&

$$

AFOSTER

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 061253
SWODY1
SPC AC 061251

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 AM CDT THU SEP 06 2007

VALID 061300Z - 071200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...

..PLAINS AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER UT/ERN ID/WRN WY THIS MORNING
WILL ACCELERATE EWD TO WRN NEB BY THIS EVENING AND THE MIDDLE-UPPER
MS VALLEY TONIGHT...WHILE PHASING WITH AN AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM. A
STALLED NE-SW ORIENTED FRONT FROM NW NEB TO NW MN WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR CYCLOGENESIS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS MN/NW WI...IN
ADVANCE OF THE EJECTING MID LEVEL WAVE. LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR
INVOF WRN KS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE SRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER MID
LEVEL WLY FLOW...BEFORE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SURGES SEWD OVERNIGHT
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND MID LEVEL WAVE. THE
SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ARE ALREADY
PRESENT IN THE WARM SECTOR FROM ERN KS NWD TO ERN SD/WRN MN.
DAYTIME HEATING OF THIS MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY E OF THE LEE CYCLONE AND ALONG
THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 2000-2500
J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL KS/NEB TO 1500 J/KG ACROSS WRN MN.
THE INITIAL CONVECTION MAY FORM OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BY MID
AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE EJECTING MID LEVEL TROUGH...W OF
THE PRIMARY SURFACE FRONT IN NEB. ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD ALSO
FORM ALONG THE FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON.

THE POSSIBILITY OF MULTIPLE STORM INTERACTIONS AND THE STRONGER
MID-UPPER FLOW LAGGING THE WARM SECTOR BOTH SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION
MAY TRANSITION TO A LINEAR MODE RATHER QUICKLY. IF DISCRETE
CONVECTION CAN FORM ALONG THE FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON...DEEP LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS.
STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING ACROSS
NE KS/SE NEB WITH THE STRENGTHENING LLJ...BUT IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT
CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO FORM E OF THE FRONT. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MOST COMMON SEVERE STORM THREATS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH PRIMARILY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT OVERNIGHT.
A COUPLE OF TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH EITHER THE INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT ON THE FRONT... OR ANY DISCRETE STORMS THAT HAPPEN TO
FORM LATER IN THE EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INCREASES.

..SRN MO INTO WRN IL TODAY...
A MID LEVEL LOW OVER WRN MO THIS MORNING WILL EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN
WAVE AND ACCELERATE NEWD OVER IL/INDIANA BY TONIGHT. THROUGH
TODAY...A BELT OF ROUGHLY 30 KT LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
MAINTAINED ON THE SERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. MOIST
PROFILES AND WEAK INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT A FEW ROTATING STORMS
AND AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO AND ISOLATED STRONG
GUSTS.

..SE AZ/SRN NM/W TX TODAY...
THE REMNANTS OF TC HENRIETTE WILL SPREAD NEWD FROM NW MEXICO ACROSS
SRN NM. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/RAINFALL WILL TEND TO LIMIT LAPSE
RATES/INSTABILITY...WITH THE STRONGER INSTABILITY EXPECTED ON THE
FRINGES OF THE WEAKENING WARM CORE SYSTEM ACROSS AZ AND W TX. GIVEN
THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING WIND FIELDS WITH TIME...THE
SEVERE STORM THREAT APPEARS TO BE NEGLIGIBLE.

.THOMPSON/GRAMS.. 09/06/2007

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KSGF [061250]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KSGF 061250
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
750 AM CDT THU SEP 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0513 AM TSTM WND DMG CLEVER 37.03N 93.47W
09/06/2007 CHRISTIAN MO EMERGENCY MNGR

CHRISTIAN COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED DAMAGE TO
THE ROOF OF A BANK ALONG WITH TREE LIMBS DOWN. POWER
OUTAGES ALSO REPORTED.

&&

$$

SRUNNELS

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KSGF [061233]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 061233
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
733 AM CDT THU SEP 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 AM FLASH FLOOD SPRINGFIELD 37.20N 93.29W
09/06/2007 GREENE MO NWS EMPLOYEE

SEVERAL INCHES OF FLOWING WATER ACROSS BUENA VISTA ROAD
AT WARD BRANCH.

&&

$$

HATCH

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KSGF [061102]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 061102
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
602 AM CDT THU SEP 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0513 AM TSTM WND DMG BILLINGS 37.07N 93.55W
09/06/2007 CHRISTIAN MO EMERGENCY MNGR

TREE LIMBS DOWN AND POWER OUTAGES

&&

$$

KANGLE

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KSGF [061056]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 061056
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
556 AM CDT THU SEP 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0513 AM TSTM WND DMG CLEVER 37.03N 93.47W
09/06/2007 CHRISTIAN MO EMERGENCY MNGR

TREE LIMBS DOWN AND POWER OUTAGES REPORTED

&&

$$

KANGLE

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 060836
SWOD48
SPC AC 060836

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0336 AM CDT THU SEP 06 2007

VALID 091200Z - 141200Z

..DISCUSSION...
SEASONAL PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE IN FULL SWING THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
MID-NEXT WEEK AS A PROGRESSIVE BUT ENERGETIC TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS
THE NRN/CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL SEND A STRONG COLD
FRONT SWD ACROSS ALL BUT FL AND DEEP S TX BY NEXT FRI. AHEAD OF
THIS POTENT FRONT...IT APPEARS THAT A SUCCESSION OF WEAKER FRONTS
WILL RELEGATE THE PRIMARY AND QUALITY MOISTURE SOURCE WELL TO THE S.
AS A RESULT...INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THE
STRONGER FRONT. AT THE SAME TIME...PRIMARY WIND MAX ALOFT WILL PASS
N OF THIS REGION AS THE UPR TROUGH MAINTAINS A POSITIVE TILT. AS A
RESULT...WIDESPREAD SVR WEATHER EPISODES ARE NOT LIKELY.

.RACY.. 09/06/2007

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 060728
SWODY3
SPC AC 060726

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 AM CDT THU SEP 06 2007

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

POLAR WLYS WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SWD INTO THE CNTRL/NRN PARTS OF THE
CONUS ON SATURDAY. FRIDAY/S MID-LEVEL IMPULSE DROPPING INTO THE NRN
ROCKIES WILL MINOR OUT AND EJECT EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPR
GRTLKS ON SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL DIG ALONG THE
BACKSIDE OF THE BROAD TROUGH INTO THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE INITIAL COLD FRONT OF THE WEEK WILL CONTINUE MOVING SEWD
THROUGH THE NERN STATES AND THE OH VLY ON SATURDAY. THE TAIL-END OF
THE SAME FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS AS REMNANTS OF HENRIETTE MIGRATE EWD ALONG IT. A NEW
FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE WILL DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
NEW UPR WAVE SATURDAY AFTN...MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MO VLY
EWD INTO THE CORN BELT.

QUALITY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY UPR 60S AND 70S DEW
POINTS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ON SATURDAY ALONG/S OF THE
INITIAL FRONT. ONLY A MEAGER RETURN OF LOW-MID 50S DEW POINTS IS
EXPECTED NWD ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED INVERTED TROUGH/COLD FRONT IN
THE MO VLY/CORN BELT SATURDAY AFTN/EVE. AT THE SAME TIME...PRIMARY
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL LIKELY PASS N OF THIS REGION DURING THE DAY
RELEGATING THE STRONGER SHEAR AND ASCENT N OF THE MODEST INSTABILITY
AXIS. THOUGH A FEW TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGH...THE ABOVE
NEGATIVES WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE SVR WEATHER PROSPECTS THROUGH
SATURDAY.

.RACY.. 09/06/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 060606
SWODY1
SPC AC 060605

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0105 AM CDT THU SEP 06 2007

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND PARTS OF
THE UPPER MS VALLEY...

..SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH NOW MOVING EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES IS
FORECAST TO ACCELERATE ENEWD FROM THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS TO THE UPPER
MS VALLEY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGH WILL INDUCE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A QUASISTATIONARY
FRONTAL ZONE ORIENTED SW-NE ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.
CONSOLIDATING LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL TRACK ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM
ERN SD/NEB TO MN/WRN LS AREA THROUGH EARLY FRI AS TRAILING COLD
FRONT SWEEPS SWD/SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS.

FARTHER SOUTH...REMAINS OF T.S. HENRIETTE COULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL ACROSS AREAS OF THE SOUTHWEST AS RESIDUAL TROPICAL VORTEX
IS GRADUALLY ABSORBED INTO STRONGER WLYS ON THE FRINGE OF PLAINS
UPPER TROUGH. MEANWHILE...FORMER TUTT LOW THAT HAS TRANSITIONED TO
LARGE GYRE DRIFTING TOWARD THE MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO DEAMPLIFY
ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY AREAS...EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH THE
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST FROM THE PLAINS TO MS VALLEY.

..CNTRL PLAINS...
LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS OF 30-60M/12H WILL ACCOMPANY THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SPREADING EAST FROM WY/CO TO NEB/SD DURING THE
AFTERNOON. INCREASINGLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER LIFT ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE...COUPLED WITH DIURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WILL ACT TO GRADUALLY OVERCOME POTENTIALLY
STRONG CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. INITIAL STORMS WILL LIKELY SPREAD EAST
FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN WY/CO...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
POSSIBLE IN POST-FRONTAL REGIME ACROSS NRN NEB INTO CNTRL SD WHERE
CAP WILL BE WEAKER. WHILE INSTABILITY IN THESE AREAS WILL BE LESS
THAN FARTHER EAST/SOUTH ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...A FEW CELLS COULD
PRODUCE HAIL GIVEN STRENGTH OF SHEAR/FORCING.

MORE INTENSE SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL ENSUE THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING INVOF FRONT AND FRONTAL WAVES FROM
CNTRL NEB TO SERN SD. VERY RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FOCUSED
ALONG THE FRONT AND NEAR EVOLVING SURFACE LOW WILL BOOST MLCAPE
VALUES TO OVER 2000 J/KG IN THE WARM SECTOR. WHILE EFFECTIVE SHEAR
ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION WILL INITIALLY BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR
SUPERCELLS...GENERALLY AOB 20KT...FORCING AND INSTABILITY APPEAR
MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR MULTICELL LINEAR ORGANIZATION NEAR THE FRONT.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SUBSEQUENT STORM ORGANIZATION SHOULD INCREASE
INTO THE EVENING WITH BOTH LINEAR AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES EVOLVING
ACROSS ERN NEB AND SD. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL APPEAR LIKELY
FROM THIS ACTIVITY. TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY ALSO EXIST IF DISCRETE
STORMS OCCUR NEAR CONSOLIDATING SURFACE LOW WHERE ENHANCED/STRONGER
LOW LEVEL SRH WILL LIKELY EXIST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A SMALL HIGHER
PROBABILITY SEVERE AREA MAY VERIFY OVER PARTS OF ERN NEB/SD THROUGH
THE EVENING. HOWEVER...IT IS TOO EARLY IN THE FORECAST PROCESS TO
INDICATE A HIGHER SEVERE THREAT AREA GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING
MESOSCALE EVOLUTION.

ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO CONGEAL INTO AN QUASI-LINEAR MCS/SQUALL LINE
THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE MO RIVER VALLEY. AS MID LEVEL WIND
MAX ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH OVERALL
PATTERN SUGGESTS DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL MAY SPREAD EAST WITH THE
MCS ACTIVITY...FROM ERN SD/NEB INTO PARTS OF MN/IA...AND PERHAPS
KS/MO...THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

..MN...
TSTMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SITUATED SW-NE ACROSS MN THROUGH LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WHILE SHEAR ALONG THIS PART OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE GENERALLY
WEAK...POCKETS OF STRONGER DESTABILIZATION COINCIDENT WITH
FRONTAL/WAVE FORCING AND MODEST UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER FLOW COULD
SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS.

..KS...
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE FROM SW/SCNTRL NEB
INTO KS AS DRYLINE MIXES EAST ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THIS DEVELOPMENT MAY BE MORE ISOLATED GIVEN STRONG
INHIBITION FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
AROUND 30KT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL STORMS...POSSIBLY
BECOMING OUTFLOW DOMINANT GIVEN HOT AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
ANTICIPATED.

..MID MS VALLEY...
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH DEAMPLIFYING MID/UPPER WAVE SHOULD SPUR
NUMEROUS STORMS IN VERY MOIST REGIME FROM MO ACROSS IL THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAK/MOIST LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THAT OVERALL SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN LIMITED. HOWEVER...VERY MOIST/TROPICAL AIR
MASS ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM...AND MODEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR...COULD
SUPPORT A WEAK/BRIEF TORNADO OR STRONG WIND GUST.

..AZ/NM...
ISOLATED/LOW PROBABILITY WIND/TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP AS POCKETS
OF STRONGER DIURNAL INSTABILITY DEVELOP AMIDST RESIDUAL STRONGER
WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYING HENRIETTE CIRCULATION.

.CARBIN/GRAMS.. 09/06/2007

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