KBTV [120331]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS51 KBTV 120331
LSRBTV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1131 PM EDT TUE SEP 11 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0340 PM TSTM WND DMG FINE 44.25N 75.13W
09/11/2007 ST. LAWRENCE NY POST OFFICE

TREE DOWN ON ROUTE 3.

0340 PM FUNNEL CLOUD FINE 44.25N 75.13W
09/11/2007 ST. LAWRENCE NY POST OFFICE

FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTED SOUTH OF FINE AT 340 PM.

0745 PM TSTM WND DMG MIDDLEBURY 44.01N 73.16W
09/11/2007 ADDISON VT UTILITY COMPANY

FEW TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN

0820 PM TSTM WND DMG RUTLAND 43.61N 72.98W
09/11/2007 RUTLAND VT UTILITY COMPANY

FEW TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN

0830 PM TSTM WND DMG SHREWSBURY 43.52N 72.87W
09/11/2007 RUTLAND VT LAW ENFORCEMENT

FEW TREES DOWN

&&

$$

JOHNG

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KBUF [120311]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBUF 120311
LSRBUF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1111 PM EDT TUE SEP 11 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1033 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 N CANANDAIGUA 42.90N 77.28W
09/11/2007 ONTARIO NY LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE DOWN ON COUNTY ROUTE 8

1043 PM TSTM WND DMG GENEVA 42.87N 76.98W
09/11/2007 ONTARIO NY LAW ENFORCEMENT

WIRES DOWN

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK

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KBUF [120230]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBUF 120230
LSRBUF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1030 PM EDT TUE SEP 11 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1015 PM TSTM WND DMG MENDON 43.00N 77.50W
09/11/2007 MONROE NY LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES ON HOMES, TREES, LIMBS WIRES DOWN ACROSS WESTERN
PORTION OF COUNTY, INCLUDING SPENCERPORT AND GREECE.

&&

$$

MPUKAJLO

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KBUF [120209]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBUF 120209
LSRBUF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1009 PM EDT TUE SEP 11 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 PM TSTM WND DMG WARSAW 42.74N 78.14W
09/11/2007 WYOMING NY LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE DOWN

1000 PM TSTM WND DMG SHELDON CENTER 42.74N 78.39W
09/11/2007 WYOMING NY LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE FELL ON HOME

&&

$$

MPUKAJLO

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KBUF [120152]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBUF 120152
LSRBUF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
952 PM EDT TUE SEP 11 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0946 PM TSTM WND DMG BATAVIA 43.00N 78.18W
09/11/2007 GENESEE NY LAW ENFORCEMENT

LIMB DOWN

&&

$$

MPUKAJLO

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KBUF [120135]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBUF 120135
LSRBUF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
935 PM EDT TUE SEP 11 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0905 PM TSTM WND GST BUFFALO 42.89N 78.86W
09/11/2007 M60.00 MPH ERIE NY PUBLIC

CORNER OF AMHERST AND ELMWOOD

&&

$$

DZAFF

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KBUF [120134]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBUF 120134
LSRBUF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
933 PM EDT TUE SEP 11 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0917 PM TSTM WND DMG SANBORN 43.13N 78.88W
09/11/2007 NIAGARA NY LAW ENFORCEMENT

HOUSES DAMAGED, NUMEROUS TREES, LIMBS, WIRES, SIGNS DOWN
ACROSS WESTERN PART OF COUNTY.

&&

$$

MPUKAJLO

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KBUF [120125]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBUF 120125
LSRBUF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
925 PM EDT TUE SEP 11 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0905 PM TSTM WND GST BUFFALO 42.89N 78.86W
09/11/2007 M64.00 MPH ERIE NY MESONET

CHARTER SCH FOR APP. TECH

0905 PM TSTM WND GST BUFFALO 42.89N 78.86W
09/11/2007 M57.00 MPH ERIE NY MESONET

WIVB

0915 PM TSTM WND DMG CLARENCE 42.98N 78.59W
09/11/2007 ERIE NY NWS EMPLOYEE

LARGE LIMB DOWN

0923 PM TSTM WND DMG TONAWANDA 42.98N 78.88W
09/11/2007 ERIE NY NWS EMPLOYEE

LARGE LIMB DOWN

&&

$$

DZAFF

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KCRP [120045]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KCRP 120045
LSRCRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
745 PM CDT TUE SEP 11 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0720 PM WATER SPOUT 3 S BAYSIDE 28.03N 97.24W
09/11/2007 SAN PATRICIO TX PUBLIC

3 PUBLIC REPORTS OF A WATERSPOUT OVER COPANO BAY THAT
MOVED OVER LAND AND DISSIPATED AS IT TRAVELED SOUTH ON
FM136 FROM EGERY ISLAND DRIVE.

&&

$$

SMART

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KJAX [120044]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 120044
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
843 PM EDT TUE SEP 11 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0815 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 N WEIRSDALE 29.00N 81.92W
09/11/2007 E4.00 INCH MARION FL TRAINED SPOTTER

A TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED HEAVY RAINFALL AND 2 TO 3
INCHES OF STANDING WATER ON THE ROADWAYS BETWEEN
WEIRSDALE AND OKLAWAHA IN MARION COUNTY. RADAR ESTIMATES
ARE NEAR 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

&&

$$

MH

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 120043
SWODY1
SPC AC 120040

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0740 PM CDT TUE SEP 11 2007

VALID 120100Z - 121200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..HUDSON VALLEY INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND...

STRONGLY-FORCED...LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE LINE EXHIBITING SOME LEWP
CHARACTERISTICS CONTINUES EWD THROUGH VT AND SERN NY THIS
EVENING...DRIVEN BY INTENSE DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH SURFACE COLD FRONT AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. INFLOW AIR MASS OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY INTO WRN NEW
ENGLAND IS RELATIVELY COOL /TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S/ OWING TO
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WHICH HAS LIMITED DESTABILIZATION IN
PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR.

00Z ALB SOUNDING SHOWS A CONSIDERABLE INCREASE IN WSWLY FLOW WITH
HEIGHT WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LEWP/BOWING STRUCTURES
EMBEDDED WITHIN CONVECTIVE LINE. LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL NEW ENGLAND AND THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...HOWEVER THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT
ANY MORE ORGANIZED WITH THREAT.

..E-CNTRL NM...

A SMALL CLUSTER OF TSTMS HAS RECENTLY INTENSIFIED OVER TORRANCE AND
GUADALUPE COUNTIES WITHIN STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT
OBSERVED BY 00Z ABQ SOUNDING. BOTH CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND
VERTICAL SHEAR REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT EXTENT
AND DURATION OF ANY SEVERE THREAT. STILL...SOME POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR A LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUST OR SOME HAIL WITH ONGOING
STORMS THROUGH 02-03Z.

.MEAD.. 09/12/2007

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KTAE [112342]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTAE 112342
LSRTAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
741 PM EDT TUE SEP 11 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0526 PM RIP CURRENTS MIRAMAR BEACH 30.37N 86.36W
09/11/2007 WALTON FL EMERGENCY MNGR

*** 2 FATAL, 3 INJ *** SEVEN PEOPLE WERE RESCUED FROM RIP
CURRENTS BY THE BEACH PATROL. FIVE PEOPLE WERE RUSHED TO
A LOCAL HOSPITAL. TWO OF THE VICTIMS DIED.

&&

$$

JAMSKI

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1956

ACUS11 KWNS 112311
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112311
VTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-120015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1956
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0611 PM CDT TUE SEP 11 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PA...NY...VT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 112311Z - 120015Z

LOW-TOPPED PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE EAST ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND PARTS OF NERN PA
NEXT HOUR. ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 40KT POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CELLS
EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. A WATCH IS NOT LIKELY.

STRONGLY-FORCED NARROW COLD-FRONTAL RAINBAND WITH EMBEDDED
LOW-TOPPED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AROUND 20KT WITH ENEWD
CELL MOTION IN THE 40-50KT RANGE THIS EVENING. LOW INSTABILITY
ENVIRONMENT /ESTIMATED MUCAPE VALUES WELL UNDER 500 J PER KG/ WAS
BEING OFFSET BY STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN THE NOSE OF
INTENSIFYING CYCLONIC 80-90KT MID LEVEL JET. STRONGER SURFACE- BASED
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN THE LINE HAVE SHOWN BRIEF VELOCITY COUPLETS
AND REAR-INFLOW NOTCHES THAT COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. LIGHTNING...REFLECTIVITY...AND IR
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ALL SUGGEST LITTLE RECENT CHANGE IN THE
INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION WITHIN THE LINE. HOWEVER...A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN STORM INTENSITY IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS GIVEN
TIME OF DAY AND THIS APPEARS TO BE FURTHER SUPPORT BY HIGH-RES WRF
OUTPUT.

.CARBIN.. 09/11/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...CTP...

42147437 41607531 41437636 41577660 42417548 43037455
44347318 43977285 43337306

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KDTX [112259]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDTX 112259
LSRDTX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
659 PM EDT TUE SEP 11 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0621 PM HAIL 3 NE ELKTON 43.85N 83.14W
09/11/2007 E0.75 INCH HURON MI PUBLIC

NUMEROUS HAILSTONES OF DIME TO PENNY SIZE.

&&

$$

BEHNKE

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KCHS [112255]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 112255
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
655 PM EDT TUE SEP 11 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0506 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 22 ESE RACCOON BLUFF 31.40N 80.87W
09/11/2007 M40.00 MPH AMZ354 GA BUOY

BUOY 41008 AT GRAYS REEF REPORTS 35 KNOTS.

&&

$$

33

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 112004
SWODY1
SPC AC 112001

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0301 PM CDT TUE SEP 11 2007

VALID 112000Z - 121200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF CNTRL AND ERN NY
THROUGH NWRN VT...

..PA THROUGH NY AND VT...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CNTRL NY SWWD THROUGH WRN PA AND INTO THE
SRN APPALACHIANS. PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION ALONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT ATTENDING LEAD SHORTWAVE
TROUGH HAS SPREAD THROUGH MUCH OF WARM SECTOR FROM VA NEWD THROUGH
THE NERN STATES. THIS HAS CONSIDERABLY LIMITED INSTABILITY WITHIN
PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WITH MLCAPE AOB 300 J/KG. RADAR TRENDS SHOW
LOW TOPPED CONVECTION WITH LITTLE LIGHTNING INCREASING FROM WRN PA
NEWD THROUGH WRN AND CNTRL NY AS DEEP ASCENT WITHIN JET EXIT REGION
ACCOMPANYING UPSTREAM VORT MAX OVERTAKES THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. SOME
DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING MAINLY IN POST FRONTAL ZONE WEST OF
CONVEYOR BELT CLOUD SHIELD ACROSS WRN NY AND WRN PA WHERE BREAKS IN
LOW CLOUDS AND COLD ADVECTION ALOFT EXIST. HOWEVER...DESTABILIZATION
PROCESS IN THIS REGION WILL BE OFFSET BY THE EWD ADVECTION OF DRYER
POST FRONTAL AIR. NET RESULT IS THAT INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN VERY
LIMITED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. INCREASING MID LEVEL FLOW IS
RESULTING IN DEEP SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING
LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES. MAIN THREAT IS EXPECTED
TO BE ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
OVERALL THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED BY THE MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.

..ERN VA THROUGH ERN MA...

A FEW STORMS HAVE INCREASED WITHIN ZONE OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
ALONG SRN FRINGE OF PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH
WARM CONVEYOR BELT FROM ERN VA THROUGH SRN MD THEN NEWD INTO EXTREME
SRN NEW ENGLAND. THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT
OF MLCAPE FROM 400 TO 800 J/KG AND DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY SHEAR
FROM 40 TO 50 KT. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS COULD ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER STORMS. HOWEVER...MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE
PROCESS OF MOVING OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

..FL...

STRONG HEATING...RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S
AND 6.5 - 7 C/KM 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES HAVE RESULTED IN STRONG
INSTABILITY OVER THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF THE FL PENINSULA WITH MLCAPE
FROM 2500 TO 3000 J/KG. MULTICELL AND PULSE STORMS DEVELOPING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

.DIAL.. 09/11/2007

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KAPX [112001]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 112001
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
401 PM EDT TUE SEP 11 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0345 PM WATERSPOUT 8 E ALPENA 45.07N 83.27W
09/11/2007 LHZ348 MI TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

MPC

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KBTV [111953]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBTV 111953
LSRBTV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
352 PM EDT TUE SEP 11 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0340 PM TSTM WND DMG FINE 44.25N 75.13W
09/11/2007 ST. LAWRENCE NY POST OFFICE

TREE DOWN ON ROUTE 3.

0340 PM FUNNEL CLOUD FINE 44.25N 75.13W
09/11/2007 ST. LAWRENCE NY POST OFFICE

FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTED SOUTH OF FINE AT 340 PM.

&&

$$

BROOKET

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KOKX [111916]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KOKX 111916
LSROKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
315 PM EDT TUE SEP 11 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 PM LIGHTNING 4 SSW GREENWOOD LAKE 41.17N 74.32W
09/08/2007 PASSAIC NJ NEWSPAPER

*** 1 FATAL *** 47 YEAR OLD MALE APPARENTLY STRUCK BY
LIGHTNING WHILE FISHING ON GREENWOOD LAKE...TIME IS
APPROXIMATE.

&&

$$

JST

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1955

ACUS11 KWNS 111849
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111849
DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-111945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1955
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0149 PM CDT TUE SEP 11 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN VA INTO PARTS OF THE SRN DELMARVA REGION

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 111849Z - 111945Z

ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON FROM SERN VA INTO SRN DE. LARGE SURFACE
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED WIND
GUSTS APPROACHING SVR VALUES.

VISIBLE SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
ALONG THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY/ERN EXTENT OF CLOUD SHIELD
FROM CHESTERFIELD COUNTY VA TO SERN NJ. DESPITE WEAK MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...STRONG SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY /SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S/ COMBINED WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ARE
SUPPORTING MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH
INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR ATTENDANT WITH SRN EXTENT OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING NEW ENGLAND SUGGESTS A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
ADVANCES EWD. INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES/STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW WIND GUSTS TO
APPROACH...OR PERHAPS LOCALLY EXCEED...SVR VALUES.

.PETERS.. 09/11/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

37277786 37687733 38347620 38587503 37907517 37047585
36877606 36637701 36597749

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KLUB [111833]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KLUB 111833
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
132 PM CDT TUE SEP 11 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0245 PM HAIL 8 NNW TAHOKA 33.27N 101.85W
09/07/2007 E1.00 INCH LYNN TX UNKNOWN

WIND BLOWN HAIL DAMAGED 2500 ACRES OF COTTON

0245 PM TSTM WND GST 8 NNW TAHOKA 33.27N 101.85W
09/07/2007 E60 MPH LYNN TX UNKNOWN

WIND BLOWN HAIL DAMAGED 2500 ACRES OF COTTON

0325 PM TSTM WND GST WHITHARRAL 33.74N 102.33W
09/07/2007 E65 MPH HOCKLEY TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEVERAL POWER POLES DOWNED AND 300 POUND FUEL TANK
BLOWN OVER

0330 PM TSTM WND GST 3 NNW NAZARETH 34.58N 102.12W
09/07/2007 E70 MPH CASTRO TX POST OFFICE

TWO GRAIN BINS WERE DESTROYED

0343 PM TSTM WND GST 4 ENE NAZARETH 34.56N 102.04W
09/07/2007 E70 MPH CASTRO TX UNKNOWN

TWO BARNS WERE DESTROYED BY THUNDERSTORM WIND.
INVESTIGATING LOCAL ACCOUNTS OF A POSSIBLE TORNADO.

0440 PM TORNADO 6 SW TULIA 34.48N 101.85W
09/07/2007 SWISHER TX PUBLIC

SEVERAL EMPLOYEES AT A FEEDYARD OBSERVED A TORNADO
SOUTHWEST OF TULIA.

0505 PM TSTM WND GST 2 S BROWNFIELD 33.15N 102.27W
09/07/2007 M63 MPH TERRY TX MESONET

1009 PM FLASH FLOOD BROWNFIELD 33.18N 102.27W
09/07/2007 TERRY TX EMERGENCY MNGR

TERRY COUNTY EMA REPORTED THAT OLD LAMESA ROAD WAS
COMPLETELY FLOODED ALONG WITH SEVERAL OTHER ROADS IN
BROWNFIELD

&&

$$

TL

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 111812
SWODY2
SPC AC 111811

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0111 PM CDT TUE SEP 11 2007

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH
VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NERN STATES AND OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD EARLY WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. ZONAL FLOW
WILL DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE WITH THE STRONGER BELT OF WLYS OVER THE NRN
THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE INTO
THE NRN ROCKIES REACHING THE NRN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SWRN STATES. VORT MAX OVER UT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD ALONG NRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE INTO NRN
NM. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PERSIST FROM ERN NC SWWD ALONG THE GULF
COASTAL AREA AND INTO SRN TX. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WRN
GULF OF MEXICO MAY DRIFT ONTO THE SRN TX COAST.

..NM THROUGH THE WRN TX PANHANDLE...

HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MID LEVEL ASCENT ATTENDING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW
STORMS DEVELOPING OVER NRN NM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS WILL RESULT IN POTENTIAL ISOLATED
DOWNBURSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
MODEST INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGEST OVERALL THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN MARGINAL.

..UPPER MS VALLEY AREA...

SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITHIN EXIT REGION OF EWD ADVANCING UPPER JET.
STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD EWD OVER MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTING NWD ALONG LOW LEVEL JET AXIS...CONTRIBUTING TO MARGINAL
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG. ELEVATED STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ERN ND INTO NRN MN WITHIN DEVELOPING WARM
ADVECTION REGIME. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER STORMS.

..ELSEWHERE...

SCATTERED MULTICELL STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FROM SC SWWD THROUGH THE GULF COAST AREA INTO SRN AND ERN TX. WEAK
LAPSE RATES...INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIMIT ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL.

.DIAL.. 09/11/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 111806
SWODY1
SPC AC 111805

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0105 PM CDT TUE SEP 11 2007

VALID 111630Z - 121200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL NY EWD INTO VT...

..SYNOPSIS...
A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID/UPPER
WIND MAX WILL BE ROTATING ACROSS THE NERN CONUS THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. VERY COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN COMBINED WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY FRONTAL BAND IS CREATING CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

WHILE THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IS MOVING INTO WRN NY/PA...A
COUPLE SURFACE LOWS ARE DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG ASCENT
WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
SURFACE LOW NERN PA AND ACROSS WARM FRONT SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST
PRODUCING AN EXPANDING AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTIVE PCPN NEWD SRN NEW
ENGLAND.

ERN PA LOW FORECASTED TO MERGE WITH ANOTHER LOW OVER LO TONIGHT INTO
ONE DEEPENING SYSTEM MOVING NEWD ACROSS QUEBEC.

A SECONDARY TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING EWD ACROSS LWR MI THIS
AFTERNOON IN CONCERT WITH THE VIGOROUS COLD UPPER TROUGH AND 100KT
500 WIND MAX.

..NERN U.S...
WILL CONTINUE A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
ACROSS NY INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND. OBVIOUSLY THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER
IS A MAJOR ISSUE...BUT WITH SOME HEATING AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT...MLCAPES COULD CLIMB TO 500 J/KG AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO
LOW/MID 70S. 50-60KT OF MID LEVEL FLOW AND STRONG ASCENT WITH
APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH/JET MAX...SHOULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.
STRONG POSSIBLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY AS STORMS EVOLVE INTO
SHORT LINE SEGMENTS ACROSS CENTRAL NY INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND.

..DELMARVA AREA...

SHARP SRN CLOUD EDGE FROM SRN NJ SWWD INTO CENTRAL VA. STRONG
HEATING WILL RAISE MLCAPES TO AOA 1000 J/KG TO S OF CLOUD BAND AND
LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE STORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID AFTERNOON.
WITH 40-50 KT OF MID LEVEL FLOW EXPECT A FEW STRONG...ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS WITH PRIMARILY A WIND THREAT.

..FL...
AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF FL PENINSULA VERY MOIST WITH PW/S AROUND 2
INCHES. GOOD DAYTIME HEATING ONGOING WILL RAISE MLCAPES TO AOA 2000
J/KG. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM ERN GOM STORMS WILL BE MOVING INLAND
WRN COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND COUPLED WITH SEA BREEZE FRONTS SHOULD
LEAD TO STRONG ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MUCH OF PENINSULA. PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE WET MICROBURSTS AND SOME HAIL.

..NRN AZ/NRN NM INTO SWRN CO...
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINS AND WHEN COUPLED WITH THE AVAILABLE
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG HEATING FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
PRIMARILY NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN. WHILE SHEAR IS WEAK THE LARGE DCAPES
UPWARDS TO 1500 J/KG AND DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORTS
STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE DOWNBURSTS. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN
STRONG CORES WITH 500MB TEMPS AROUND MINUS 10C.

.HALES/BROYLES.. 09/11/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook Resent 2

ACUS01 KWNS 111749
SWODY1
SPC AC 111747

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 2
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1247 PM CDT TUE SEP 11 2007

VALID 111630Z - 121200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL NY EWD INTO VT...

..SYNOPSIS...
A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID/UPPER
WIND MAX WILL BE ROTATING ACROSS THE NERN CONUS THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. VERY COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN COMBINED WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY FRONTAL BAND IS CREATING CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

WHILE THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IS MOVING INTO WRN NY/PA...A
COUPLE SURFACE LOWS ARE DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG ASCENT
WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
SURFACE LOW NERN PA AND ACROSS WARM FRONT SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST
PRODUCING AN EXPANDING AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTIVE PCPN NEWD SRN NEW
ENGLAND.

ERN PA LOW FORECASTED TO MERGE WITH ANOTHER LOW OVER LO TONIGHT INTO
ONE DEEPENING SYSTEM MOVING NEWD ACROSS QUEBEC.

A SECONDARY TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING EWD ACROSS LWR MI THIS
AFTERNOON IN CONCERT WITH THE VIGOROUS COLD UPPER TROUGH AND 100KT
500 WIND MAX.

..NERN U.S...
WILL CONTINUE A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
ACROSS NY INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND. OBVIOUSLY THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER
IS A MAJOR ISSUE...BUT WITH SOME HEATING AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT...MLCAPES COULD CLIMB TO 500 J/KG AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO
LOW/MID 70S. 50-60KT OF MID LEVEL FLOW AND STRONG ASCENT WITH
APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH/JET MAX...SHOULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.
STRONG POSSIBLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY AS STORMS EVOLVE INTO
SHORT LINE SEGMENTS ACROSS CENTRAL NY INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND.

..DELMARVA AREA...

SHARP SRN CLOUD EDGE FROM SRN NJ SWWD INTO CENTRAL VA. STRONG
HEATING WILL RAISE MLCAPES TO AOA 1000 J/KG TO S OF CLOUD BAND AND
LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE STORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID AFTERNOON.
WITH 40-50 KT OF MID LEVEL FLOW EXPECT A FEW STRONG...ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS WITH PRIMARILY A WIND THREAT.

..FL...
AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF FL PENINSULA VERY MOIST WITH PW/S AROUND 2
INCHES. GOOD DAYTIME HEATING ONGOING WILL RAISE MLCAPES TO AOA 2000
J/KG. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM ERN GOM STORMS WILL BE MOVING INLAND
WRN COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND COUPLED WITH SEA BREEZE FRONTS SHOULD
LEAD TO STRONG ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MUCH OF PENINSULA. PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE WET MICROBURSTS AND SOME HAIL.

..NRN AZ/NRN NM INTO SWRN CO...
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINS AND WHEN COUPLED WITH THE AVAILABLE
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG HEATING FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
PRIMARILY NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN. WHILE SHEAR IS WEAK THE LARGE DCAPES
UPWARDS TO 1500 J/KG AND DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORTS
STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE DOWNBURSTS. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN
STRONG CORES WITH 500MB TEMPS AROUND MINUS 10C.

.HALES/BROYLES.. 09/11/2007

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 111734
SWODY2
SPC AC 111733

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 PM CDT TUE SEP 11 2007

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH
VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NERN STATES AND OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD EARLY WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. ZONAL FLOW
WILL DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE WITH THE STRONGER BELT OF WLYS OVER THE NRN
THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE INTO
THE NRN ROCKIES REACHING THE NRN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SWRN STATES. VORT MAX OVER UT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD ALONG NRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE INTO NRN
NM. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PERSIST FROM ERN NC SWWD ALONG THE GULF
COASTAL AREA AND INTO SRN TX. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WRN
GULF OF MEXICO MAY DRIFT ONTO THE SRN TX COAST.

..NM THROUGH THE WRN TX PANHANDLE...

HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MID LEVEL ASCENT ATTENDING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW
STORMS DEVELOPING OVER NRN NM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS WILL RESULT IN POTENTIAL ISOLATED
DOWNBURSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
MODEST INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGEST OVERALL THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN MARGINAL.

..UPPER MS VALLEY AREA...

SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITHIN EXIT REGION OF EWD ADVANCING UPPER JET.
STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD EWD OVER MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTING NWD ALONG LOW LEVEL JET AXIS...CONTRIBUTING TO MARGINAL
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG. ELEVATED STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ERN ND INTO NRN MN WITHIN DEVELOPING WARM
ADVECTION REGIME. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER STORMS.

..ELSEWHERE...

SCATTERED MULTICELL STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FROM SC SWWD THROUGH THE GULF COAST AREA INTO SRN AND ERN TX. WEAK
LAPSE RATES...INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIMIT ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL.

.DIAL.. 09/11/2007

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KLIX [111725]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLIX 111725
LSRLIX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1225 PM CDT TUE SEP 11 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1205 PM WATER SPOUT 5 S EDEN ISLE 30.16N 89.80W
09/11/2007 GMZ530 LA TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED WATERSPOUT NEAR I-10 TWIN SPAN
BRIDGE

&&

$$

25

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 111720
SWODY2
SPC AC 111719

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1219 PM CDT TUE SEP 11 2007

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH
VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NERN STATES AND OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD EARLY WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. ZONAL FLOW
WILL DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE WITH THE STRONGER BELT OF WLYS OVER THE NRN
THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE INTO
THE NRN ROCKIES REACHING THE NRN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SWRN STATES. VORT MAX OVER UT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD ALONG NRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE INTO NRN
NM. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PERSIST FROM ERN NC SWWD ALONG THE GULF
COASTAL AREA AND INTO SRN TX. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WRN
GULF OF MEXICO MAY DRIFT ONTO THE SRN TX COAST.

..NM THROUGH THE WRN TX PANHANDLE...

HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MID LEVEL ASCENT ATTENDING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW
STORMS DEVELOPING OVER NRN NM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS WILL RESULT IN POTENTIAL ISOLATED
DOWNBURSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
MODEST INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGEST OVERALL THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN MARGINAL.

..UPPER MS VALLEY AREA...

SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITHIN EXIT REGION OF EWD ADVANCING UPPER JET.
STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD EWD OVER MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTING NWD ALONG LOW LEVEL JET AXIS...CONTRIBUTING TO MARGINAL
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG. ELEVATED STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ERN ND INTO NRN MN WITHIN DEVELOPING WARM
ADVECTION REGIME. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER STORMS.

..ELSEWHERE...

SCATTERED MULTICELL STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FROM SC SWWD THROUGH THE GULF COAST AREA INTO SRN AND ERN TX. WEAK
LAPSE RATES...INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIMIT ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL.

.DIAL.. 09/11/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook Resent 1

ACUS01 KWNS 111718
SWODY1
SPC AC 111715

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1215 PM CDT TUE SEP 11 2007

VALID 111630Z - 121200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL NY EWD INTO VT...

..SYNOPSIS...
A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID/UPPER
WIND MAX WILL BE ROTATING ACROSS THE NERN CONUS THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. VERY COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN COMBINED WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY FRONTAL BAND IS CREATING CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

WHILE THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IS MOVING INTO WRN NY/PA...A
COUPLE SURFACE LOWS ARE DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG ASCENT
WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
SURFACE LOW NERN PA AND ACROSS WARM FRONT SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST
PRODUCING AN EXPANDING AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTIVE PCPN NEWD SRN NEW
ENGLAND.

ERN PA LOW FORECASTED TO MERGE WITH ANOTHER LOW OVER LO TONIGHT INTO
ONE DEEPENING SYSTEM MOVING NEWD ACROSS QUEBEC.

A SECONDARY TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING EWD ACROSS LWR MI THIS
AFTERNOON IN CONCERT WITH THE VIGOROUS COLD UPPER TROUGH AND 100KT
500 WIND MAX.

..NERN U.S...
WILL CONTINUE A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
ACROSS NY INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND. OBVIOUSLY THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER
IS A MAJOR ISSUE...BUT WITH SOME HEATING AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT...MLCAPES COULD CLIMB TO 500 J/KG AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO
LOW/MID 70S. 50-60KT OF MID LEVEL FLOW AND STRONG ASCENT WITH
APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH/JET MAX...SHOULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.
STRONG POSSIBLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY AS STORMS EVOLVE INTO
SHORT LINE SEGMENTS ACROSS CENTRAL NY INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND.

..DELMARVA AREA...

SHARP SRN CLOUD EDGE FROM SRN NJ SWWD INTO CENTRAL VA. STRONG
HEATING WILL RAISE MLCAPES TO AOA 1000 J/KG TO S OF CLOUD BAND AND
LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE STORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID AFTERNOON.
WITH 40-50 KT OF MID LEVEL FLOW EXPECT A FEW STRONG...ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS WITH PRIMARILY A WIND THREAT.

..FL...
AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF FL PENINSULA VERY MOIST WITH PW/S AROUND 2
INCHES. GOOD DAYTIME HEATING ONGOING WILL RAISE MLCAPES TO AOA 2000
J/KG. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM ERN GOM STORMS WILL BE MOVING INLAND
WRN COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND COUPLED WITH SEA BREEZE FRONTS SHOULD
LEAD TO STRONG ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MUCH OF PENINSULA. PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE WET MICROBURSTS AND SOME HAIL.

..NRN AZ/NRN NM INTO SWRN CO...
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINS AND WHEN COUPLED WITH THE AVAILABLE
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG HEATING FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
PRIMARILY NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN. WHILE SHEAR IS WEAK THE LARGE DCAPES
UPWARDS TO 1500 J/KG AND DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORTS
STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE DOWNBURSTS. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN
STRONG CORES WITH 500MB TEMPS AROUND MINUS 10C.

.HALES/BROYLES.. 09/11/2007

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KLIX [111703]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLIX 111703
LSRLIX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1203 PM CDT TUE SEP 11 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1145 AM FUNNEL CLOUD 15 ENE NEW ORLEANS 30.05N 89.85W
09/11/2007 ORLEANS LA PUBLIC

A FUNNEL CLOUD WAS REPORTED NEAR THE TWIN SPAN BY A
FORMER NWS EMPLOYEE.

&&

$$

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 111625
SWODY1
SPC AC 111622

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 AM CDT TUE SEP 11 2007

VALID 111630Z - 121200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL NY EWD INTO VT...

..SYNOPSIS...
A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID/UPPER
WIND MAX WILL BE ROTATING ACROSS THE NERN CONUS THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. VERY COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN COMBINED WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY FRONTAL BAND IS CREATING CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

WHILE THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IS MOVING INTO WRN NY/PA...A
COUPLE SURFACE LOWS ARE DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG ASCENT
WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
SURFACE LOW NERN PA AND ACROSS WARM FRONT SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST
PRODUCING AN EXPANDING AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTIVE PCPN NEWD SRN NEW
ENGLAND.

ERN PA LOW FORECASTED TO MERGE WITH ANOTHER LOW OVER LO TONIGHT INTO
ONE DEEPENING SYSTEM MOVING NEWD ACROSS QUEBEC.

A SECONDARY TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING EWD ACROSS LWR MI THIS
AFTERNOON IN CONCERT WITH THE VIGOROUS COLD UPPER TROUGH AND 100KT
500 WIND MAX.

..NERN U.S...
WILL CONTINUE A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
ACROSS NY INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND. OBVIOUSLY THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER
IS A MAJOR ISSUE...BUT WITH SOME HEATING AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT...MLCAPES COULD CLIMB TO 500 J/KG AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO
LOW/MID 70S. 50-60KT OF MID LEVEL FLOW AND STRONG ASCENT WITH
APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH/JET MAX...SHOULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.
STRONG POSSIBLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY AS STORMS EVOLVE INTO
SHORT LINE SEGMENTS ACROSS CENTRAL NY INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND.

..DELMARVA AREA...

SHARP SRN CLOUD EDGE FROM SRN NJ SWWD INTO CENTRAL VA. STRONG
HEATING WILL RAISE MLCAPES TO AOA 1000 J/KG TO S OF CLOUD BAND AND
LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE STORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID AFTERNOON.
WITH 40-50 KT OF MID LEVEL FLOW EXPECT A FEW STRONG...ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS WITH PRIMARILY A WIND THREAT.

..FL...
AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF FL PENINSULA VERY MOIST WITH PW/S AROUND 2
INCHES. GOOD DAYTIME HEATING ONGOING WILL RAISE MLCAPES TO AOA 2000
J/KG. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM ERN GOM STORMS WILL BE MOVING INLAND
WRN COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND COUPLED WITH SEA BREEZE FRONTS SHOULD
LEAD TO STRONG ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MUCH OF PENINSULA. PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE WET MICROBURSTS AND SOME HAIL.

..NRN AZ/NRN NM INTO SWRN CO...
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINS AND WHEN COUPLED WITH THE AVAILABLE
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG HEATING FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
PRIMARILY NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN. WHILE SHEAR IS WEAK THE LARGE DCAPES
UPWARDS TO 1500 J/KG AND DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORTS
STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE DOWNBURSTS. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN
STRONG CORES WITH 500MB TEMPS AROUND MINUS 10C.

.HALES/BROYLES.. 09/11/2007

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KEWX [111431]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 111431
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
931 AM CDT TUE SEP 11 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0830 AM FLASH FLOOD 9 NW AUSTIN 30.40N 97.86W
09/11/2007 TRAVIS TX EMERGENCY MNGR

LOW WATER CROSSING FLOODED AT LAKEWOOD DRIVE ATR BULL
CREEK AND AT OLD SPICEWOOD SPRINGS RD AND LOOP 360

0830 AM FLASH FLOOD 6 WSW AUSTIN 30.27N 97.84W
09/11/2007 TRAVIS TX EMERGENCY MNGR

LOW WATER CROSSING FLOODED IN 6200 BLOCK OF JOE TANNER
AND ON OLD BEE CAVES ROAD.

&&

$$

JPB

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 111247
SWODY1
SPC AC 111245

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 AM CDT TUE SEP 11 2007

VALID 111300Z - 121200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF UPSTATE NY AND
VT...

..SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE...CHANGEABLE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL FROM THE GRT LKS TO NEW
ENGLAND THIS PERIOD...WHILE LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING PERSISTS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WEST. POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW AMPLIFYING SE ACROSS
THE UPR GRT LKS WILL PHASE WITH MORE SLOWLY-MOVING IMPULSE NOW OVER
THE OH VLY...RESULTING IN A DEEP BUT PROGRESSIVE CLOSED LOW OVER
CNTRL QUEBEC WEDNESDAY MORNING.

AT LWR LVLS...SFC WAVE LOW NOW OVER LK ONTARIO SHOULD SLOWLY DEEPEN
AS IT MOVES NE INTO QUEBEC LATER TODAY. MORE SUBSTANTIAL DEEPENING
SHOULD OCCUR TONIGHT AS UPR LVL CIRCULATION AMPLIFIES OVER REGION.
WEAK COLD FRONT TRAILING SW FROM THE WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE ONLY
SLOWLY E ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND PA TODAY...BEFORE ACCELERATING ESE
INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT.

..UPSTATE NY/VT...
APPROACH OF AMPLIFYING UPR TROUGH WILL SUBSTANTIALLY ENHANCE LARGE
SCALE ASCENT/DEEP WIND FIELD ACROSS UPSTATE NY LATER TODAY/ TONIGHT.
CLOUDS/PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD UPR IMPULSE WILL STRONGLY LIMIT
LOW LVL DESTABILIZATION. BUT FOCUSED LOW LVL ASCENT ALONG
STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT AND MID LVL COOL ADVECTION SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A LINE OF LOW-TOPPED STORMS FROM LK
ONTARIO S INTO THE FINGER LKS REGION AND PERHAPS NRN PA AS SBCAPE
INCREASES TO NEAR 500 J/KG. 50 KT UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY MID LVL FLOW
ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO BOUNDARY AND FAIRLY MOIST PROFILES /PW AOA 1.25
INCHES/ MAY YIELD SMALL SCALE BOWING SEGMENTS WITH HIGH WIND AND
POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO. ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT OUT-RUNS
LOW-LVL INSTABILITY AXIS FARTHER E INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND.

..MID ATLANTIC CST...
A FEW STRONG TO LOCALLY SVR STORMS MAY FORM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY/ DELMARVA PENINSULA AS
REGION IS GLANCED BY TAIL END OF LEAD UPR IMPULSE NOW IN THE OH VLY.
STRENGTHENING UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW FLOW AND RESIDUAL AXIS OF RICH LOW
LVL MOISTURE INVOF OLD FRONT MAY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW BOWING
SEGMENTS WITH HIGH WIND.

..NRN MI...
AMPLIFYING UPR TROUGH WILL YIELD STRENGTHENING DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
ACROSS THE UPR GRT LKS TODAY. ASSOCIATED ONSET OF MID LVL COLD
ADVECTION WILL BE FAVORABLY-TIMED WITH LOW LVL DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION AND POSSIBLE LAKE-ENHANCED FLUXES TO FOSTER
LOW-TOPPED STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER NRN MI. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY
SHOULD FOCUS ALONG SHALLOW COLD FRONT ON LEADING EDGE OF UPR SYSTEM
THIS AFTERNOON...AND COULD YIELD MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AND/OR STRONG
WIND GUSTS.

..AZ/NM...
SCTD AFTERNOON TSTMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CNTRL/NRN AZ INTO PARTS OF NM AND SRN UT...ON SRN FRINGE OF
ELONGATING UPR DISTURBANCE. WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK...
STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH SBCAPE TO AROUND 800 J/KG MAY SUPPORT A FEW
STRONG UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY WIND THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

.CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 09/11/2007

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 110859
SWOD48
SPC AC 110859

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CDT TUE SEP 11 2007

VALID 141200Z - 191200Z

..DISCUSSION...
GFS AND ECMWF FAIRLY CONSISTENT THROUGH DAY 5 /I.E. SAT. SEPT.
15/...AFTER WHICH MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO INCREASE STEADILY.
BOTH MODELS DEPICT THE COLD FRONT MOVING SWD ACROSS THE SRN AND ERN
CONUS THROUGH DAYS 4 AND 5...AFTER WHICH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE ERN CONUS. GFS REMAINS MUCH
STRONGER/MORE PERSISTENT WITH THIS HIGH...WITH NLY/NELY SURFACE FLOW
ACROSS THE ERN U.S. AND THE GULF OF MEXICO DEPICTED BY THIS MODEL
THROUGH THE PERIOD -- WHICH WOULD LIKELY HINDER ANY APPRECIABLE
MOISTURE RETURN NWD INTO THE PLAINS. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE HIGH WILL REMAIN WEAKER AND VACATE
THE ERN U.S. QUICKER...THUS PERMITTING MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SURGE DAY 7-8. GIVEN CONTINUED
MODEL DIFFERENCES THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...WILL NOT ATTEMPT TO
OUTLOOK ANY THREAT AREAS BEYOND DAY 5.

IN THE SHORTER TERM...SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS INDICATED
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND INTO OK DAY 4 /I.E. FRI.
SEPT. 14/ NEAR OR JUST TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT AS IT
PROGRESSES SWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. A SURFACE-BASED SEVERE THREAT
IS ALSO INDICATED ACROSS A SMALL PORTION OF THE NORTHEAST --
GENERALLY WRN PA INTO WV -- AS LIMITED AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION
OCCURS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT. ATTM...BOTH OF THESE POTENTIAL
THREATS APPEAR LIMITED/UNCERTAIN ENOUGH THAT OUTLOOK AREAS WILL NOT
BE ADDED ATTM. HOWEVER...EITHER OF THESE AREAS -- PARTICULARLY THE
APPALACHIANS AREA -- WILL BE WATCHED IN LATER OUTLOOKS FOR POSSIBLE
INTRODUCTION OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

.GOSS.. 09/11/2007

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1954

ACUS11 KWNS 110858
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110858
NYZ000-PAZ000-111130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1954
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 AM CDT TUE SEP 11 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN NY...SRN LAKE ONT...EXTREME NWRN PA
NEAR LE...ERN PORTIONS LE.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 110858Z - 111130Z

BKN LINE OF TSTMS -- MOVING EWD APPROXIMATELY 35 KT ACROSS CENTRAL
LE AS OF 830Z -- SHOULD MOVE EWD OVER REMAINDER OF THAT LAKE AND
ONSHORE BETWEEN ERI-BUF THROUGH 11Z. ISOLATED STG GUSTS AND HAIL
MAY OCCUR WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY THAT PERSISTS...ESPECIALLY NEAR
LAKE SHORE...HOWEVER THREAT APPEARS TOO MRGL/ISOLATED FOR WW.

DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR IS FAVORABLE BENEATH 50-60 KT 500 MB
FLOW...AND SO IS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG FORCING BOUNDARY. MAIN
CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEAK-MRGL INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY AWAY
FROM IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF LE. OVER AND JUST DOWNWIND FROM
LAKE...RELATIVELY WARM WATERS BOOST PRE-STORM SFC TEMPS INTO UPPER
60S/LOW 70S...AMIDST UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S SFC DEW POINTS.
ACCORDINGLY MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS YIELD EFFECTIVE INFLOW LAYER
ROOTED AT SFC...INDICATING SOME POTENTIAL FOR ANY STG-SVR GUSTS
GENERATED ALOFT TO BE TRANSFERRED TO SFC IN DOWNDRAFTS.
HOWEVER...SUSTAINED INTENSITY OF UPDRAFTS AND DOWNDRAFTS IS IN
QUESTION GIVEN VERY WEAK DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES THAT LIMIT
MUCAPE/SBCAPE TO LESS THAN 500 J/KG. ONGOING ACTIVITY INITIALLY
DEVELOPED INVOF AND JUST E OF DTW ALONG SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH STILL
IS EVIDENT AS REFLECTIVITY FINE LINE FROM N-CENTRAL OH NEWD ACROSS
LE TO SERN ONT. SOME BACKBUILDING IS POSSIBLE ALONG FRONT...HOWEVER
RELATIVELY STABLE SFC AIR MASS S OF LAKE SHOULD PRECLUDE ORGANIZED
SVR THREAT WITH ANY SUCH CONVECTION AS WELL.

.EDWARDS.. 09/11/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...CLE...

42148033 42797888 42907895 42987900 43057900 43097908
43277905 43427861 43547802 43347770 43117766 42687793
42067870 41977971

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 110731
SWODY3
SPC AC 110729

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT TUE SEP 11 2007

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EXPAND SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS THE
NERN CONUS THIS PERIOD...WHILE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONUS THE UPPER
PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY BENIGN.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER FEATURE SHOULD MOVE
INTO/ACROSS ONTARIO...WHILE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHIFTS SWD ACROSS
THE PLAINS.

..IA SWWD ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY INTO KS...
LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN/AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR NEAR AND AHEAD OF SEWD-MOVING FRONT. THOUGH CAPPING SHOULD
PROVE A HINDRANCE TO AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ISOLATED
STORMS MAY FIRE NEAR THE FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON -- SOMEWHERE ALONG
A CORRIDOR FROM ROUGHLY IA SWWD INTO CENTRAL KS.

WHILE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE
FRONT...SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW ANY STORMS WHICH CAN
DEVELOP TO TAKE ON SOME ORGANIZATION. WHILE A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL OR
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS COULD THEREFORE ACCOMPANY ANY AFTERNOON
WARM-SECTOR STORM...MODELS ALSO HINT THAT ANY SEVERE THREAT COULD BE
LIMITED TO HAIL WITH ELEVATED/PRIMARILY NOCTURNAL STORMS N OF THE
FRONT. IN EITHER CASE...IT APPEARS ATTM THAT THREAT WILL REMAIN
LIMITED AT BEST...AND THUS WILL ONLY INTRODUCE 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY
ATTM.

.GOSS.. 09/11/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 110601
SWODY1
SPC AC 110558

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT TUE SEP 11 2007

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...

DYNAMIC LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS FORECAST ACROSS NERN QUARTER OF THE
NATION AS DIGGING MID AND UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS CONTRIBUTE TO
CONSIDERABLE INTENSIFICATION OF UPPER TROUGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND. IN THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AS IT DEVELOPS NEWD FROM SWRN
ONTARIO INTO CNTRL QUEBEC. TRAILING STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD
THROUGH THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY...AND
EVENTUALLY THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT.

..NORTHEAST...

COMPLEX LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TODAY OWING TO THE PRESENCE
OF MULTIPLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND THE EARLY ARRIVAL OF A WEAKER
SHORT WAVE THAT WILL PRECEDE PRIMARY UPPER SYSTEM. IT APPEARS THAT
THE MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FOCUSED LATER TODAY
ALONG SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY SWWD THROUGH THE DELMARVA...AS WELL AS ALONG MORE PROGRESSIVE
COLD FRONT PUSHING EWD THROUGH NY/PA...EVENTUALLY INTO NEW ENGLAND.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH WEAKER LEAD IMPULSE MAY TEND TO LIMIT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION
WITHIN SYSTEM WARM SECTOR TODAY. HOWEVER CURRENT SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND GPS IPW DATA SHOW THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST
ENVIRONMENT WHICH SHOULD BE MAINTAINED AS SWLY LLJ INCREASES TO
30-40 KT. THIS MOISTURE COUPLED WITH SOME DIABATIC HEATING AND
INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE AT LEAST A MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH SBCAPES OF 500-700 J/KG.

VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONCURRENTLY STRENGTHEN AS MID AND HIGH-LEVEL
JET STREAKS PROPAGATE EWD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH SUFFICIENT
DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...SOME HAIL AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO.
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH REGARD TO THE DEGREE AND
DISTRIBUTION OF CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY LATER TODAY ACROSS SYSTEM
WARM SECTOR. THEREFORE...ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL BE
MAINTAINED ATTM.

..NRN LOWER MI...

PROXIMITY OF COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. MESOSCALE FORCING ALONG
COLD FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT A LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE LINE OR CLUSTERS
OF TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

..AZ/NM...

DIURNAL TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
COMPLEX TERRAIN WITHIN A STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WITH SBCAPES
OF 500-800 J/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...THOUGH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD
SUPPORT A FEW STRONG UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.MEAD/JEWELL.. 09/11/2007

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 110600
SWODY2
SPC AC 110559

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT TUE SEP 11 2007

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
WEAKLY-CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE NRN
CONUS...WITH A STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WITHIN THIS FLOW PATTERN
FORECAST TO DROP SWD OUT OF WRN CANADA INTO THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN
PLAINS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD.

COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS ALSO FORECAST TO BEGIN
DROPPING SWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN HIGH PLAINS...AS ASSOCIATED
NRN PLAINS SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EWD WITH TIME. MEANWHILE...SECOND
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO LINGER FROM THE CAROLINAS WSWWD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST/GULF COAST STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

..SRN HIGH PLAINS...
SELY FLOW AND PRESENCE OF A LEE TROUGH COULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A STORM OR TWO OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...THOUGH WEAK INSTABILITY
AND A CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD ACT TO MINIMIZE CONVECTIVE
THREAT. WITH ROUGHLY 20 KT WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW FORECAST ATOP
LOW-LEVEL SELYS...SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A SUSTAINED UPDRAFT OR
TWO...ASSUMING STORM DEVELOPMENT. THUS...WILL INTRODUCE A
5%/CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION FOR ISOLATED
AFTERNOON STORMS.

..PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS...
WHILE LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST BE QUITE WEAK AND THUS INSTABILITY
VERY LIMITED...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST INVOF SURFACE
FRONT LINGERING OVER THIS AREA. MODELS HINT AT SLIGHTLY MORE
ENHANCED FLOW IN A CORRIDOR FROM NRN GA ENEWD ACROSS SC/SRN
NC...WHICH COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS AND PERHAPS A
LOCALLY-STRONGER GUST OR TWO. HOWEVER...ANY THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
QUITE LIMITED.

.GOSS.. 09/11/2007

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