SWODY2
SPC AC 110559
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT TUE SEP 11 2007
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
WEAKLY-CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE NRN
CONUS...WITH A STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WITHIN THIS FLOW PATTERN
FORECAST TO DROP SWD OUT OF WRN CANADA INTO THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN
PLAINS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD.
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS ALSO FORECAST TO BEGIN
DROPPING SWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN HIGH PLAINS...AS ASSOCIATED
NRN PLAINS SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EWD WITH TIME. MEANWHILE...SECOND
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO LINGER FROM THE CAROLINAS WSWWD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST/GULF COAST STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
..SRN HIGH PLAINS...
SELY FLOW AND PRESENCE OF A LEE TROUGH COULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A STORM OR TWO OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...THOUGH WEAK INSTABILITY
AND A CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD ACT TO MINIMIZE CONVECTIVE
THREAT. WITH ROUGHLY 20 KT WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW FORECAST ATOP
LOW-LEVEL SELYS...SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A SUSTAINED UPDRAFT OR
TWO...ASSUMING STORM DEVELOPMENT. THUS...WILL INTRODUCE A
5%/CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION FOR ISOLATED
AFTERNOON STORMS.
..PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS...
WHILE LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST BE QUITE WEAK AND THUS INSTABILITY
VERY LIMITED...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST INVOF SURFACE
FRONT LINGERING OVER THIS AREA. MODELS HINT AT SLIGHTLY MORE
ENHANCED FLOW IN A CORRIDOR FROM NRN GA ENEWD ACROSS SC/SRN
NC...WHICH COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS AND PERHAPS A
LOCALLY-STRONGER GUST OR TWO. HOWEVER...ANY THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
QUITE LIMITED.
.GOSS.. 09/11/2007
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