KCYS [170100]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KCYS 170100
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
600 PM MST FRI NOV 16 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0846 AM NON-TSTM WND GST CHUGWATER 41.76N 104.82W
11/16/2007 M43.00 MPH PLATTE WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SEVERAL GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 MPH BETWEEN 846 AM AND 101
PM MST.

0900 AM NON-TSTM WND GST BUFORD 41.11N 105.30W
11/16/2007 M62.00 MPH ALBANY WY MESONET

SUSTAINED WSW AT 55 MPH AT 900 AM MST. SEVERAL GUSTS
GREATER THAN 50 MPH 705 AM THROUGH 315 PM MST.

1100 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 S I-80 MM 342 41.02N 105.16W
11/16/2007 M57.00 MPH LARAMIE WY MESONET

LYNCH UNION PACIFIC MESONET STATION. STRONGEST OF SEVERAL
GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 MPH BETWEEN 900 AM AND 400 PM MST.

1111 AM NON-TSTM WND GST WHITAKER 41.41N 104.87W
11/16/2007 M59.00 MPH LARAMIE WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SEVERAL GUSTS GREATER THAN 58 MPH BETWEEN 1001 AM AND
1141 AM MST. CONTINUED TO GUST GREATER THAN 40 MPH
THROUGH 500 PM MST.

1131 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 SW SOUTH GREELEY HIGH 41.05N 104.89W
11/16/2007 M52.00 MPH LARAMIE WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

DOT SITE ON WYOMING HILL SOUTH OF CHEYENNE ON INTERSTATE
25. SUSTAINED WNW AT 40 MPH AT 1131 AM MST. SEVERAL GUSTS
GREATER THAN 50 MPH BETWEEN 1111 AM AND 1136 AM MST.
SEVERAL GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 MPH BETWEEN 1026 AM AND 241
PM MST.

1229 PM NON-TSTM WND GST CHEYENNE 41.15N 104.79W
11/16/2007 M52.00 MPH LARAMIE WY ASOS

1240 PM NON-TSTM WND GST PUMPKIN VINE 41.05N 105.46W
11/16/2007 M54.00 MPH ALBANY WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

THIS WAS THE PEAK GUST WITH SEVERAL GUSTS GREATER THAN 40
MPH BETWEEN 1040 AM AND 343 PM MST.

0102 PM NON-TSTM WND GST LARAMIE 41.31N 105.58W
11/16/2007 M48.00 MPH ALBANY WY ASOS

STRONGEST OF SEVERAL GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 MPH BETWEEN
1100 AM AND 400 PM MST.

0116 PM NON-TSTM WND GST BORDEAUX 41.95N 104.95W
11/16/2007 M58.00 MPH PLATTE WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SEVERAL GUSTS GREATER THAN 50 MPH 1216 PM-346 PM MST.
SEVERAL GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 MPH 1106 AM-346 PM MST.

0201 PM NON-TSTM WND GST GUN BARREL 41.44N 104.35W
11/16/2007 M58.00 MPH LARAMIE WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SUSTAINED WNW 40MPH AT 201 PM MST. ALSO GUSTED TO 58 MPH
AT 156 PM MST. SEVERAL GUSTS GREATER THAN 50 MPH BETWEEN
1136 AM AND 206 PM MST. SEVERAL GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 MPH
BETWEEN 916 AM AND 326 PM MST.

0221 PM NON-TSTM WND GST ARLINGTON 41.59N 106.21W
11/16/2007 M66.00 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

LAST OF SEVERAL GUSTS GREATER THAN 60 MPH BETWEEN 135 PM
AND 221 PM MST.

0228 PM NON-TSTM WND GST VEDAUWOO 41.15N 105.40W
11/16/2007 M59.00 MPH ALBANY WY MESONET

STRONGEST OF SEVERAL GUSTS GREATER THAN 50 MPH BETWEEN
1137 AM AND 253 PM MST. GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 MPH WERE
OBSERVED BETWEEN 1023 AM AND 403 PM MST.

0444 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 11 SE GARRETT 42.00N 105.45W
11/16/2007 M55.00 MPH ALBANY WY MESONET

DODGE CREEK RAWS. SEVERAL GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 MPH 144
PM-444 PM MST.

&&

$$

CARPENTER

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KCYS [170052]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 170052
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
552 PM MST FRI NOV 16 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0846 AM NON-TSTM WND GST CHUGWATER 41.76N 104.82W
11/16/2007 M43.00 MPH PLATTE WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SEVERAL GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 MPH BETWEEN 846 AM AND 101
PM MST.

0900 AM NON-TSTM WND GST BUFORD 41.11N 105.30W
11/16/2007 M62.00 MPH ALBANY WY MESONET

SUSTAINED WSW AT 55 MPH AT 900 AM MST. SEVERAL GUSTS
GREATER THAN 50 MPH 705 AM THROUGH 315 PM MST.

1100 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 S I-80 MM 342 41.02N 105.16W
11/16/2007 M57.00 MPH LARAMIE WY MESONET

LYNCH UNION PACIFIC MESONET STATION. STRONGEST OF SEVERAL
GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 MPH BETWEEN 900 AM AND 400 PM MST.

1111 AM NON-TSTM WND GST WHITAKER 41.41N 104.87W
11/16/2007 M59.00 MPH LARAMIE WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SEVERAL GUSTS GREATER THAN 58 MPH BETWEEN 1001 AM AND
1141 AM MST. CONTINUED TO GUST GREATER THAN 40 MPH
THROUGH 500 PM MST.

1131 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 SW SOUTH GREELEY HIGH 41.05N 104.89W
11/16/2007 M52.00 MPH LARAMIE WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

DOT SITE ON WYOMING HILL SOUTH OF CHEYENNE ON INTERSTATE
25. SUSTAINED WNW AT 40 MPH AT 1131 AM MST. SEVERAL GUSTS
GREATER THAN 50 MPH BETWEEN 1111 AM AND 1136 AM MST.
SEVERAL GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 MPH BETWEEN 1026 AM AND 241
PM MST.

1240 PM NON-TSTM WND GST PUMPKIN VINE 41.05N 105.46W
11/16/2007 M54.00 MPH ALBANY WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

THIS WAS THE PEAK GUST WITH SEVERAL GUSTS GREATER THAN 40
MPH BETWEEN 1040 AM AND 343 PM MST.

0116 PM NON-TSTM WND GST BORDEAUX 41.95N 104.95W
11/16/2007 M58.00 MPH PLATTE WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SEVERAL GUSTS GREATER THAN 50 MPH 1216 PM-346 PM MST.
SEVERAL GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 MPH 1106 AM-346 PM MST.

0201 PM NON-TSTM WND GST GUN BARREL 41.44N 104.35W
11/16/2007 M58.00 MPH LARAMIE WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SUSTAINED WNW 40MPH AT 201 PM MST. ALSO GUSTED TO 58 MPH
AT 156 PM MST. SEVERAL GUSTS GREATER THAN 50 MPH BETWEEN
1136 AM AND 206 PM MST. SEVERAL GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 MPH
BETWEEN 916 AM AND 326 PM MST.

0221 PM NON-TSTM WND GST ARLINGTON 41.59N 106.21W
11/16/2007 M66.00 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

LAST OF SEVERAL GUSTS GREATER THAN 60 MPH BETWEEN 135 PM
AND 221 PM MST.

0444 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 11 SE GARRETT 42.00N 105.45W
11/16/2007 M55.00 MPH ALBANY WY MESONET

DODGE CREEK RAWS. SEVERAL GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 MPH 144
PM-444 PM MST.

&&

$$

CARPENTER

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KMFR [170048]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 170048
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
448 PM PST FRI NOV 16 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0446 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 N HAPPY CAMP 41.80N 123.38W
11/16/2007 M0.30 INCH SISKIYOU CA TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT 4 PM

0446 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 N COOS BAY 43.37N 124.22W
11/16/2007 M1.52 INCH COOS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 TOTAL ENDING AT 430 PM

&&

$$

PETRUCEL

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 170035
SWODY1
SPC AC 170032

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0632 PM CST FRI NOV 16 2007

VALID 170100Z - 171200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SRN ROCKIES...

STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN CONTRIBUTOR TO
CONVECTION ACROSS NM THIS EVENING. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM THIS REGION
SUGGEST GREATEST PARCEL BUOYANCY IS OBTAINED FROM PARCELS LIFTED
NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE 700MB...AND THIS IS QUITE MEAGER WITH
MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 100 J/KG. WITH THE ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING
AND GRADUAL WEAKENING OF WARM ADVECTION...MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THIS REGION WILL DISSIPATE OR BECOME VERY ISOLATED.

.DARROW.. 11/17/2007

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KAPX [170020]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KAPX 170020
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
720 PM EST FRI NOV 16 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0635 AM SNOW GAYLORD 45.03N 84.67W
11/16/2007 M7.0 INCH OTSEGO MI TRAINED SPOTTER

12 HR TOTAL THRU 6 AM. SNOWDEPTH 14 IN.
TEST...TEST...TEST...TEST...TEST...TEST...TEST

&&

$$

MBOGUTH

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KAPX [170016]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 170016
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
716 PM EST FRI NOV 16 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0635 AM SNOW GAYLORD 45.03N 84.67W
11/16/2007 M7.0 INCH OTSEGO MI TRAINED SPOTTER

12 HR TOTAL THRU 6 AM. SNOWDEPTH 14 IN.

&&

$$

MBOGUTH

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KMFR [162254]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 162254
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
254 PM PST FRI NOV 16 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0253 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 SE PORT ORFORD 42.74N 124.48W
11/16/2007 M3.00 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR ACCUMULATION

&&

$$

BUNKER

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KCYS [162230]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 162230
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
330 PM MST FRI NOV 16 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0315 PM NON-TSTM WND GST BUFORD 41.11N 105.30W
11/16/2007 M50 MPH ALBANY WY MESONET

0102 PM NON-TSTM WND GST LARAMIE 41.31N 105.58W
11/16/2007 M48 MPH ALBANY WY ASOS

0316 PM NON-TSTM WND GST BORDEAUX 41.95N 104.95W
11/16/2007 M49 MPH PLATTE WY MESONET

&&

$$

RUBIN

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KCYS [162140]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 162140
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
239 PM MST FRI NOV 16 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0226 PM NON-TSTM WND GST ARLINGTON 41.59N 106.21W
11/16/2007 M57 MPH CARBON WY MESONET

0205 PM NON-TSTM WND GST BUFORD 41.11N 105.30W
11/16/2007 M50 MPH ALBANY WY MESONET

0228 PM NON-TSTM WND GST VEDAUWOO 41.15N 105.40W
11/16/2007 M59 MPH ALBANY WY MESONET

0221 PM NON-TSTM WND GST WHITAKER 41.41N 104.87W
11/16/2007 M52 MPH LARAMIE WY MESONET

1229 PM NON-TSTM WND GST CHEYENNE 41.15N 104.79W
11/16/2007 M52 MPH LARAMIE WY ASOS

&&

$$

RUBIN

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 161935
SWODY1
SPC AC 161933

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0133 PM CST FRI NOV 16 2007

VALID 162000Z - 171200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..ERN AZ...SRN NM THROUGH SWRN TX...

MID LEVEL ASCENT AND STEEP 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES ARE SUPPORTING
MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SERN
AZ THROUGH SWRN NM. THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS VERY DRY AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS BASED ABOVE 700 MB. THE
CONVECTION WILL SPREAD EAST THROUGH FAR WEST AND SWRN TX THIS
EVENING.

.DIAL.. 11/16/2007

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KMFR [161740]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 161740
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
940 AM PST FRI NOV 16 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0939 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 E SIXES 42.81N 124.42W
11/16/2007 M1.25 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR ACCUMULATION

&&

$$

BUNKER

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 161732
SWODY2
SPC AC 161730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST FRI NOV 16 2007

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..CNTRL THROUGH SRN TX...

UPPER LOW OVER NWRN MEXICO WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH NRN MEXICO AND TX
SATURDAY. SURFACE RIDGE WITH OFFSHORE FLOW NOW OVER THE CNTRL GULF
COAST AREA WILL SHIFT EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF
AIR TO RETURN NWD THROUGH SRN AND SERN TX. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS
WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S NEAR THE COAST TO LOW TO
MID 60S A BIT FARTHER INLAND LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NWD ADVECTION
OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COOLING 500 MB TEMPERATURES
ATTENDING THE EWD ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
DESTABILIZATION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AREAS OF
CLOUDS COULD LIMIT MUCAPE TO GENERALLY BELOW 1000 J/KG...EXCEPT
POTENTIALLY HIGHER NEAR THE COAST. MODELS SUGGEST ONLY MODEST LOW
LEVEL RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH WITH WEAK FLOW IN THE 850-700 MB
LAYER FORECAST. HOWEVER...SLY TO SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO SWLY
AND INCREASING TO 40 KT AT 500 MB WILL RESULT IN 35 TO 40 KT DEEP
SHEAR. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND SATURDAY EVENING OVER PARTS OF SOUTH AND SERN TX AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER DESTABILIZES AND AS MID LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES IN
ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR SOME STORMS TO DEVELOP SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. THIS AREA WILL BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK IN DAY 1 OUTLOOKS.

.DIAL.. 11/16/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 161608
SWODY1
SPC AC 161605

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1005 AM CST FRI NOV 16 2007

VALID 161630Z - 171200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

PRIMARY BELT OF WESTERLIES REMAINS ACROSS NRN CONUS WITH UPPER LOW
IN WEAKER SRN BRANCH JUST S OF SERN AZ/MEXICO BORDER.

OBSERVED OVERNIGHT CONVECTION VICINITY UPPER SYSTEM SERN AZ INTO
SONORA SUPPORTED BY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH THE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT. WHILE MID LEVELS ARE SUFFICIENTLY MOIST TO
GENERATE MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS...THE AIR MASS BELOW
700MB REMAINS RATHER DRY.

GREATEST THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO SHIFT MOSTLY INTO NRN
MEXICO AHEAD OF UPPER SYSTEM. THE ELEVATED STORMS N OF BORDER INTO
SRN NM AND EVENTUALLY INTO FAR SWRN TX SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED AS
THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY AND UPPER SUPPORT IS WEAKER.

.HALES.. 11/16/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 161226
SWODY1
SPC AC 161224

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0624 AM CST FRI NOV 16 2007

VALID 161300Z - 171200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
MAIN BELT OF THE WLYS WILL EXTEND FROM THE PACIFIC NW ACROSS THE NRN
PLNS AND MID MS VLY TO THE MID ATLANTIC CST. IN THE WEAKER SRN
BRANCH...SONORAN UPR LOW EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DEAMPLIFY AS IT
CONTINUES E...REACHING W TX AS AN OPEN TROUGH BY 12Z SAT.

..SE AZ INTO SW TX...
ELEVATED MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM LOW WILL SPREAD
FARTHER NE ACROSS ERN AZ AND NM TODAY. MOISTENING IN THE 750-600MB
LYR...COUPLED WITH STEEPENING MID LVL LAPSE RATES...SHOULD YIELD
200-300 J/KG MUCAPE. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF
SCTD ELEVATED TSTMS IN THE MOIST AXIS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLOSER TO
THE MEXICAN BORDER...DIURNAL HEATING WILL ENHANCE LOW LVL LAPSE
RATES AND MAY SUPPORT A FEW SFC-BASED STORMS THIS AFTN/EARLY TONIGHT
FROM EXTREME SE AZ INTO SRN NM AND PERHAPS FAR SW TX. WHILE THE
MIXED LYR WILL BE SEASONABLY DEEP /THROUGH 500 MB/...WEAK SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH PROXIMITY OF UPR SYSTEM AND LIMITED MOISTURE LIKELY
WILL PRECLUDE A THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SVR.

.CORFIDI/IMY.. 11/16/2007

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 160952
SWOD48
SPC AC 160951

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 AM CST FRI NOV 16 2007

VALID 191200Z - 241200Z

..DISCUSSION...
BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WRN
CONUS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD /DAY 4 -- MON. NOV. 19/. BOTH
MODELS FORECAST THIS FEATURE TO DIG/EXPAND INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.
THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY DAY 6-7...BOTH MODELS DEPICT A VERY
EXPANSIVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY.

HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS FEATURE. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE BULLISH IN TERMS OF A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT...WITH THE TROUGH TAKING ON A NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY
NEGATIVE TILT DAYS 6-7. AS A RESULT...THE GFS DEPICTS A 990 MB LOW
OVER LOWER MI...WITH A STRONG N-S COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE FL
PANHANDLE EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY /DAY 7 -- THU. NOV. 22/.
MEANWHILE...THE BROADER/FLATTER UPPER TROUGH DEPICTED ATTM BY THE
ECMWF IS RESULTING IN ONLY A 1012 LOW OVER KY...WITH A FRONT
TRAILING SWWD TO LA EARLY THU. NOV. 22.

GIVEN THESE MODEL DIFFERENCES...WILL OPT NOT TO INTRODUCE A SEVERE
WEATHER AREA ATTM. HOWEVER...WITH THE MODELS AT LEAST CONSISTENT IN
DEVELOPING A LARGE...SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S. DURING THE PERIOD...POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WOULD
BE POSSIBLE AT SOME POINT -- ATTM APPEARING MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
SERN QUARTER OF THE U.S. DAYS 6-7.

.GOSS.. 11/16/2007

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KSEW [160858]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 160858
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1257 AM PST FRI NOV 16 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 N QUINAULT 47.46N 123.86W
11/15/2007 M2.46 INCH GRAYS HARBOR WA TRAINED SPOTTER

IN 24 HOURS ENDING AT 10 PM

1130 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 NNE POTLATCH 47.44N 123.12W
11/15/2007 M2.02 INCH MASON WA TRAINED SPOTTER

IN 24 HOURS ENDING AT 1130 PM

&&

$$

GBP

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 160813
SWODY2
SPC AC 160812

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 AM CST FRI NOV 16 2007

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

CORRECTED TO ADD SEE TEXT LABEL TO CATEGORICAL GRAPHIC

..SYNOPSIS...
LARGE UPPER TROUGH -- COMPRISED OF SMALLER-SCALE FEATURES IN THE NRN
AND SRN STREAMS -- WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS
THIS PERIOD...WHILE FAST WSWLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE W AHEAD OF
AN OFFSHORE TROUGH OVER THE ERN PACIFIC.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST/GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...AND MORE SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND INTO THE SRN PLAINS.

..TX EWD INTO SWRN AR/WRN LA...
MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS
THE SRN PLAINS THIS PERIOD...ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT/BROAD AREA OF
WEAK LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED AT THE SURFACE. SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY ADVECT A FAIRLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER NWD INTO
TX...WHICH COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND COOLING MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD YIELD MARGINAL INSTABILITY /AROUND 500 J/KG
MIXED-LAYER CAPE./

THOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON...PERSISTENT UVV AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH MAY
EVENTUALLY SUPPORT LOCAL STORM DEVELOPMENT. WEAK SURFACE PATTERN
SUGGESTS THAT STORM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...THOUGH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LOW-LEVEL JET AND
ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION MAY ALLOW SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

WHILE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...40 KT SWLYS AT
MID LEVELS SHOULD SPREAD ATOP THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH. RESULTING SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER
STORMS...POSSIBLY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINAL HAIL OR
LOCALLY-GUSTY WINDS. THUS...WILL INTRODUCE A SMALL AREA OF 5%
SEVERE PROBABILITY OVER CENTRAL TX AND VICINITY.

.GOSS.. 11/16/2007

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 160802
SWODY3
SPC AC 160800

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 AM CST FRI NOV 16 2007

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DECREASE IN AMPLITUDE OVER
THE U.S. THIS PERIOD -- DESPITE A TROUGH FORECAST TO REACH THE W
COAST LATE -- AS THE TROUGH CROSSING THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
WEAKENS SLOWLY WITH TIME. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A RELATIVELY LARGE
AREA -- FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS -- EXPERIENCING FAST BUT
QUASI-ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW.

AT THE SURFACE...FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION/TN
AND MID MS VALLEYS/SRN PLAINS SHOULD WEAKEN AND BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THE PERIOD. FAIRLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
FROM PARTS OF TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION SHOULD SUPPORT WEAK
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...OVERALL LACK OF SHEAR -- PARTICULARLY
ACROSS TX WHERE GREATEST INSTABILITY IS ANTICIPATED -- SUGGESTS
LITTLE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

.GOSS.. 11/16/2007

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 160644
SWODY2
SPC AC 160642

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1242 AM CST FRI NOV 16 2007

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
LARGE UPPER TROUGH -- COMPRISED OF SMALLER-SCALE FEATURES IN THE NRN
AND SRN STREAMS -- WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS
THIS PERIOD...WHILE FAST WSWLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE W AHEAD OF
AN OFFSHORE TROUGH OVER THE ERN PACIFIC.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST/GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...AND MORE SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND INTO THE SRN PLAINS.

..TX EWD INTO SWRN AR/WRN LA...
MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS
THE SRN PLAINS THIS PERIOD...ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT/BROAD AREA OF
WEAK LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED AT THE SURFACE. SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY ADVECT A FAIRLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER NWD INTO
TX...WHICH COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND COOLING MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD YIELD MARGINAL INSTABILITY /AROUND 500 J/KG
MIXED-LAYER CAPE./

THOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON...PERSISTENT UVV AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH MAY
EVENTUALLY SUPPORT LOCAL STORM DEVELOPMENT. WEAK SURFACE PATTERN
SUGGESTS THAT STORM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...THOUGH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LOW-LEVEL JET AND
ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION MAY ALLOW SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

WHILE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...40 KT SWLYS AT
MID LEVELS SHOULD SPREAD ATOP THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH. RESULTING SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER
STORMS...POSSIBLY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINAL HAIL OR
LOCALLY-GUSTY WINDS. THUS...WILL INTRODUCE A SMALL AREA OF 5%
SEVERE PROBABILITY OVER CENTRAL TX AND VICINITY.

.GOSS.. 11/16/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 160540
SWODY1
SPC AC 160538

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1138 PM CST THU NOV 15 2007

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SRN ROCKIES...

LATE EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
NWRN MEXICO AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL MOISTURE ARE LIFTING NEWD
TOWARD THE SRN ROCKIES. THIS MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME WILL PROVE
INSTRUMENTAL IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 12-14Z
ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS REGION INDICATE
SIGNIFICANT MOISTENING WITHIN 750-600MB LAYER...YIELDING ROUGHLY
200-300 J/KG MUCAPE. IT APPEARS SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL SPREAD/DEVELOP EAST DURING THE DAY STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY LARGE
SCALE ASCENT. DIURNAL HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY ALSO
CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AS BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN. GREATEST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE MAINLY ACROSS NRN
PORTIONS OF MEXICO WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DECREASE MARKEDLY AFTER
00Z.

.DARROW.. 11/16/2007

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