SWOD48
SPC AC 160951
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 AM CST FRI NOV 16 2007
VALID 191200Z - 241200Z
..DISCUSSION...
BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WRN
CONUS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD /DAY 4 -- MON. NOV. 19/. BOTH
MODELS FORECAST THIS FEATURE TO DIG/EXPAND INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.
THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY DAY 6-7...BOTH MODELS DEPICT A VERY
EXPANSIVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY.
HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS FEATURE. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE BULLISH IN TERMS OF A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT...WITH THE TROUGH TAKING ON A NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY
NEGATIVE TILT DAYS 6-7. AS A RESULT...THE GFS DEPICTS A 990 MB LOW
OVER LOWER MI...WITH A STRONG N-S COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE FL
PANHANDLE EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY /DAY 7 -- THU. NOV. 22/.
MEANWHILE...THE BROADER/FLATTER UPPER TROUGH DEPICTED ATTM BY THE
ECMWF IS RESULTING IN ONLY A 1012 LOW OVER KY...WITH A FRONT
TRAILING SWWD TO LA EARLY THU. NOV. 22.
GIVEN THESE MODEL DIFFERENCES...WILL OPT NOT TO INTRODUCE A SEVERE
WEATHER AREA ATTM. HOWEVER...WITH THE MODELS AT LEAST CONSISTENT IN
DEVELOPING A LARGE...SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S. DURING THE PERIOD...POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WOULD
BE POSSIBLE AT SOME POINT -- ATTM APPEARING MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
SERN QUARTER OF THE U.S. DAYS 6-7.
.GOSS.. 11/16/2007
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