SWODY1
SPC AC 161224
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0624 AM CST FRI NOV 16 2007
VALID 161300Z - 171200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
MAIN BELT OF THE WLYS WILL EXTEND FROM THE PACIFIC NW ACROSS THE NRN
PLNS AND MID MS VLY TO THE MID ATLANTIC CST. IN THE WEAKER SRN
BRANCH...SONORAN UPR LOW EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DEAMPLIFY AS IT
CONTINUES E...REACHING W TX AS AN OPEN TROUGH BY 12Z SAT.
..SE AZ INTO SW TX...
ELEVATED MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM LOW WILL SPREAD
FARTHER NE ACROSS ERN AZ AND NM TODAY. MOISTENING IN THE 750-600MB
LYR...COUPLED WITH STEEPENING MID LVL LAPSE RATES...SHOULD YIELD
200-300 J/KG MUCAPE. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF
SCTD ELEVATED TSTMS IN THE MOIST AXIS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLOSER TO
THE MEXICAN BORDER...DIURNAL HEATING WILL ENHANCE LOW LVL LAPSE
RATES AND MAY SUPPORT A FEW SFC-BASED STORMS THIS AFTN/EARLY TONIGHT
FROM EXTREME SE AZ INTO SRN NM AND PERHAPS FAR SW TX. WHILE THE
MIXED LYR WILL BE SEASONABLY DEEP /THROUGH 500 MB/...WEAK SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH PROXIMITY OF UPR SYSTEM AND LIMITED MOISTURE LIKELY
WILL PRECLUDE A THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SVR.
.CORFIDI/IMY.. 11/16/2007
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