SWODY1
SPC AC 161605
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1005 AM CST FRI NOV 16 2007
VALID 161630Z - 171200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
PRIMARY BELT OF WESTERLIES REMAINS ACROSS NRN CONUS WITH UPPER LOW
IN WEAKER SRN BRANCH JUST S OF SERN AZ/MEXICO BORDER.
OBSERVED OVERNIGHT CONVECTION VICINITY UPPER SYSTEM SERN AZ INTO
SONORA SUPPORTED BY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH THE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT. WHILE MID LEVELS ARE SUFFICIENTLY MOIST TO
GENERATE MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS...THE AIR MASS BELOW
700MB REMAINS RATHER DRY.
GREATEST THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO SHIFT MOSTLY INTO NRN
MEXICO AHEAD OF UPPER SYSTEM. THE ELEVATED STORMS N OF BORDER INTO
SRN NM AND EVENTUALLY INTO FAR SWRN TX SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED AS
THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY AND UPPER SUPPORT IS WEAKER.
.HALES.. 11/16/2007
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