KLOT [160354]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLOT 160354
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1054 PM CDT WED AUG 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 PM HAIL CROWN POINT 41.42N 87.36W
08/15/2007 E0.75 INCH LAKE IN PUBLIC

THREE QUARTER INCH HAIL IN CROWN POINT

0900 PM TSTM WND DMG CROWN POINT 41.42N 87.36W
08/15/2007 LAKE IN PUBLIC

6 INCH DIAMETER TREE LIMBS DOWN WITH BROAD RANGING POWER
OUTAGES.

&&

$$

CGITRO

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KIWX [160346]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 160346
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1146 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1130 PM TSTM WND DMG CULVER 41.22N 86.42W
08/15/2007 MARSHALL IN EMERGENCY MNGR

NUMEROUS POWER LINES DOWNED

&&

$$

MCS

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KLOT [160344]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLOT 160344
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1044 PM CDT WED AUG 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0914 PM TSTM WND DMG HEBRON 42.47N 88.43W
08/15/2007 MCHENRY IL LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN BLOCKING ROADS...WINDOWS BROKEN ON SOME HOUSES

&&

$$

CGITRO

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KIWX [160336]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 160336
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1136 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1123 PM TORNADO ARGOS 41.24N 86.25W
08/15/2007 MARSHALL IN LAW ENFORCEMENT

TORNADO TOUCHTOWN REPORTED

&&

$$

MCS

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KLOT [160335]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLOT 160335
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1035 PM CDT WED AUG 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0844 PM TSTM WND DMG SCHERERVILLE 41.49N 87.45W
08/15/2007 LAKE IN BROADCAST MEDIA

MANY TREES UPROOTED AND FENCES BROKEN

0931 PM HAIL 6 NW BOONE GROVE 41.42N 87.21W
08/15/2007 E1.25 INCH PORTER IN LAW ENFORCEMENT

HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL IN LAKE OF THE FOUR SEASONS

0931 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 NW BOONE GROVE 41.42N 87.21W
08/15/2007 PORTER IN LAW ENFORCEMENT

MULTIPLE TREES DOWN

0931 PM TSTM WND DMG N WHEATFIELD 41.19N 87.05W
08/15/2007 JASPER IN LAW ENFORCEMENT

LARGE TREES UPROOTED WITH SOME ON HOUSES

&&

$$

CGITRO

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KIWX [160333]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 160333
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1133 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1120 PM HAIL MONTEREY 41.16N 86.48W
08/15/2007 M1.50 INCH PULASKI IN EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

$$

MCS

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KIWX [160329]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 160329
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1128 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1127 PM HAIL KEWANNA 41.02N 86.41W
08/15/2007 M1.00 INCH FULTON IN AMATEUR RADIO

&&

$$

MCS

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KLOT [160321]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLOT 160321
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1021 PM CDT WED AUG 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0927 PM TSTM WND DMG KOUTS 41.32N 87.03W
08/15/2007 PORTER IN FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

MULTIPLE TREES DOWN ALONG WITH MULTPLE CAR ACCIDENTS

1008 PM FLASH FLOOD MERRILLVILLE 41.47N 87.33W
08/15/2007 LAKE IN TRAINED SPOTTER

5 INCHES OF WATER AT 161ST AND ROUTE 65

&&

$$

CGITRO

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KLOT [160300]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KLOT 160300
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1000 PM CDT WED AUG 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0844 PM TSTM WND DMG SCHERERVILLE 41.49N 87.45W
08/15/2007 LAKE IN EMERGENCY MNGR

4 INCH DIAMETER TREES DOWN...NUMEROUS FENCES
DOWN...SATELLITE DISH BENT BACKWARDS

0850 PM HAIL GRIFFITH 41.52N 87.42W
08/15/2007 E0.88 INCH LAKE IN TRAINED SPOTTER

PEA TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL AT INTERSECTION OF MAIN AND
CLINE AVENUES

0850 PM TSTM WND GST GARY 41.60N 87.34W
08/15/2007 M69.00 MPH LAKE IN ASOS

MEASURED AT GARY ASOS

0900 PM HAIL HOBART 41.53N 87.27W
08/15/2007 E1.00 INCH LAKE IN AMATEUR RADIO

QARTER SIZE HAIL IN HOBART

0903 PM HAIL MERRILLVILLE 41.47N 87.33W
08/15/2007 E0.75 INCH LAKE IN TRAINED SPOTTER

AT US 30 AND BROADWAY

0905 PM HAIL MERRILLVILLE 41.47N 87.33W
08/15/2007 E0.88 INCH LAKE IN NWS EMPLOYEE

NICKEL SIZED HAIL IN MARRILLVILLE

0905 PM HAIL HOBART 41.53N 87.27W
08/15/2007 E1.75 INCH LAKE IN TRAINED SPOTTER

61 STREET 3 MILES EAST OF I-65

0913 PM HAIL HEBRON 42.47N 88.43W
08/15/2007 E1.00 INCH MCHENRY IL TRAINED SPOTTER

1 INCH HAIL REPORTED IN HEBRON

0915 PM HAIL W VALPARAISO 41.48N 87.05W
08/15/2007 E1.00 INCH PORTER IN AMATEUR RADIO

WEST SIDE OF VALPARAISO

0915 PM HAIL HEBRON 42.47N 88.43W
08/15/2007 E1.00 INCH MCHENRY IL AMATEUR RADIO

QUARTER SIZED HAIL IN HEBRON

0925 PM FLASH FLOOD VALPARAISO 41.48N 87.05W
08/15/2007 PORTER IN TRAINED SPOTTER

FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING IN VALPARAISO. ROADWAYS COVERED
IN WATER

0925 PM TSTM WND GST VALPARAISO 41.48N 87.05W
08/15/2007 E60.00 MPH PORTER IN TRAINED SPOTTER

50 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS

&&

$$

CGITRO

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KIWX [160252]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 160252
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1052 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1051 PM HAIL NORTH JUDSON 41.22N 86.78W
08/15/2007 M1.00 INCH STARKE IN TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

MCS

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KBOU [160249]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KBOU 160249
LSRBOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
848 PM MDT WED AUG 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0505 PM HAIL S BOULDER 40.03N 105.25W
08/15/2007 M0.75 INCH BOULDER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0425 PM HAIL SIMLA 39.14N 104.08W
08/15/2007 M0.88 INCH ELBERT CO TRAINED SPOTTER

RELAYED BY WFO PUEBLO

0222 PM HAIL W PERRY PARK 39.26N 104.98W
08/15/2007 M2.00 INCH DOUGLAS CO TRAINED SPOTTER

EXTENSIVE VEHICLE DAMAGE

0210 PM HAIL 1 E PERRY PARK 39.26N 104.96W
08/15/2007 M1.00 INCH DOUGLAS CO TRAINED SPOTTER

ALSO VERIFIED BY CHANNEL NINE TV MEDIA/PHOTO

0200 PM HAIL 2 NE LOVELAND 40.44N 105.05W
08/15/2007 M0.88 INCH LARIMER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

BENTON

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KLOT [160248]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KLOT 160248
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
948 PM CDT WED AUG 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0850 PM HAIL GRIFFITH 41.52N 87.42W
08/15/2007 E0.88 INCH LAKE IN TRAINED SPOTTER

PEA TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL AT INTERSECTION OF MAIN AND
CLINE AVENUES

0905 PM HAIL MERRILLVILLE 41.47N 87.33W
08/15/2007 E0.88 INCH LAKE IN NWS EMPLOYEE

NICKEL SIZED HAIL IN MARRILLVILLE

0925 PM FLASH FLOOD VALPARAISO 41.48N 87.05W
08/15/2007 PORTER IN TRAINED SPOTTER

FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING IN VALPARAISO. ROADWAYS COVERED
IN WATER

0925 PM TSTM WND GST VALPARAISO 41.48N 87.05W
08/15/2007 E60.00 MPH PORTER IN TRAINED SPOTTER

50 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS

&&

$$

CGITRO

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KBOU [160246]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KBOU 160246
LSRBOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
846 PM MDT WED AUG 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0505 PM HAIL S BOULDER 40.03N 105.25W
08/15/2007 M0.75 INCH BOULDER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0425 PM HAIL SIMLA 39.14N 104.08W
08/15/2007 M0.88 INCH ELBERT CO TRAINED SPOTTER

RELAYED BY WFO PUEBLO

0222 PM HAIL W PERRY PARK 39.26N 104.98W
08/15/2007 M2.00 INCH DOUGLAS CO TRAINED SPOTTER

EXTENSIVE VEHICLE DAMAGE

0220 PM HAIL 1 E PERRY PARK 39.26N 104.96W
08/15/2007 M1.00 INCH DOUGLAS CO TRAINED SPOTTER

ALSO VERIFIED BY CHANNEL NINE TV MEDIA/PHOTO

0200 PM HAIL 2 NE LOVELAND 40.44N 105.05W
08/15/2007 M0.88 INCH LARIMER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

BENTON

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 600

WWUS20 KWNS 160235
SEL0
SPC WW 160235
INZ000-OHZ000-LMZ000-160800-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 600
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1030 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN INDIANA
NORTHWEST OHIO
LAKE MICHIGAN

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 1030 PM
UNTIL 400 AM EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
VALPARAISO INDIANA TO 65 MILES EAST OF FORT WAYNE INDIANA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...SMALL MCS OVER NW IND HAS FORMED IN THE PAST 90 MINUTES
ON WRN SIDE OF COLD POOL/MCV ASSOCIATED WITH EARLIER CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM. THE MCS SHOULD REMAIN STRONG THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AND
TRACK ESE INTO OH. A SUPERCELL NOW PRESENT ON WRN SIDE OF SYSTEM
WILL POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING
WET MICROBURSTS/ MARGINALLY SVR HAIL...GIVEN HI PWS AND LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELD WITH CONSIDERABLE DEGREE OF SPEED/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR.
WIND PROFILES MAY ALSO SUPPORT BACK-BUILDING DEVELOPMENT ON WRN SIDE
OF MCS...WITH ASSOCIATED LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE INTO FAR NE
IL/NRN IND IN WAKE OF SUPERCELL.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 30030.

..CORFIDI

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KIWX [160229]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 160229
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1029 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1018 PM TSTM WND DMG MICHIGAN CITY 41.71N 86.88W
08/15/2007 LA PORTE IN TRAINED SPOTTER

SEVERAL TREES DOWNED

&&

$$

MCS

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1763

ACUS11 KWNS 160211
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160211
OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-160315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1763
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0911 PM CDT WED AUG 15 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...XTRM NERN IL...NRN IND AND NWRN OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 160211Z - 160315Z

TSTMS THAT DEVELOPED IN THE CHICAGOLAND AREA HAVE SHOWN A RECENT
INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER NWRN IND WHERE HAILSTONES TO THE SIZE OF
NICKELS HAVE BEEN REPORTED. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING ALONG
THE BACKSIDE OF A DEPARTING SPEED MAX/MCV WHERE WARM ADVECTION IS
BEING MAXIMIZED OVER A WEAK COLD POOL AND AHEAD OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE
PERTURBATION UPSTREAM OVER THE CORN BELT.

ACTIVITY HAS PROBABLY BEEN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...BUT TAIL-END TSTM
APPEARS TO BE TRENDING MORE SFC-BASED. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A
WEAK BOUNDARY...LIKELY A FOOTPRINT OF EARLIER DAY TSTMS...EXTENDING
FROM SW OF KFWA NWWD TO THE TAIL-END STORM. THOUGH THERE IS A WEAK
WIND SHIFT PRESENT...AIR MASS EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WAS
SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE TO SUPPORT STG TSTMS.

IWX VWP EXHIBITS NEARLY 50 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR...SUPPORTIVE OF
EMBEDDED ORGANIZED STORMS. OTHERWISE...GIVEN GEOMETRY OF THE
LOW-LEVEL JET WITH RESPECT TO THE DEVELOPING TSTM CLUSTER AND
PRESENCE OF AMPLE INSTABILITY DOWNSTREAM...SITUATION WILL LIKELY
YIELD SPORADIC DOWNBURST/DMGG WINDS ALONG WITH HAIL. ATTM...IT
APPEARS THE GREATEST SVR THREAT WILL EVOLVE ESEWD FROM PORTER AND
LAKE COUNTIES ESEWD BETWEEN KGUS-KFWA. ACTIVITY COULD ALSO EVOLVE
INTO A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT SEWD ACROSS NRN IND INTO NWRN OH IN A
FEW HOURS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

.RACY.. 08/16/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...

40748672 41228804 41478850 41778850 41718747 41628651
41308377 40558359 40128396 40288526

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KUNR [160210]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 160210
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
810 PM MDT WED AUG 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0805 PM HAIL 13 W OGLALA 43.18N 102.99W
08/15/2007 E1.00 INCH SHANNON SD PUBLIC

&&

$$

BCECIL

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KVEF [160159]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 160159
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
659 PM PDT WED AUG 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0615 PM HEAVY RAIN N MEADVIEW 36.00N 114.07W
08/15/2007 M1.34 INCH MOHAVE AZ MESONET

SENSOR IN MEADVIEW RECORDED 1.34 INCHES OF RAIN IN 25
MINUTES.

&&

$$

CBELL

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KVEF [160157]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 160157
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
657 PM PDT WED AUG 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 PM TSTM WND GST N MEADVIEW 36.00N 114.07W
08/15/2007 E50.00 MPH MOHAVE AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING REPORTED.

&&

$$

CBELL

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KLOT [160155]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLOT 160155
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
855 PM CDT WED AUG 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0850 PM HAIL GRIFFITH 41.52N 87.42W
08/15/2007 E0.88 INCH LAKE IN TRAINED SPOTTER

PEA TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL AT INTERSECTION OF MAIN AND
CLINE AVENUES

&&

$$

CGITRO

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KPUB [160151]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 160151
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
751 PM MDT WED AUG 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0750 PM HAIL HASWELL 38.45N 103.16W
08/15/2007 M1.00 INCH KIOWA CO TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

MN

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KPUB [160147]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS55 KPUB 160147
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
747 PM MDT WED AUG 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0745 PM HAIL HASWELL 38.45N 103.16W
08/15/2007 M0.75 INCH KIOWA CO TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

MN

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KPUB [160146]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 160146
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
746 PM MDT WED AUG 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0745 PM HAIL N HASWELL 38.45N 103.16W
08/15/2007 M0.75 INCH KIOWA CO TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

MN

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 160100
SWODY1
SPC AC 160057

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT WED AUG 15 2007

VALID 160100Z - 161200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION....

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF LWR/MID
TX COASTAL AREAS....

..SYNOPSIS...
THE BULK OF THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY HAS BEEN MOSTLY
CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME AND STRONG HEATING ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO
DIMINISH MORE RAPIDLY BY THE 02-04Z TIME FRAME...AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER BEGINS TO COOL WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THIS
INCLUDES THE CLUSTER OF STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WHICH HAS
DEVELOPED EAST OF THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...PERHAPS SUPPORTED BY FORCING ACCOMPANYING A WEAK
CONVECTIVELY GENERATED OR ENHANCED MID-LEVEL IMPULSE WITHIN THE
MOISTURE PLUME.

EAST OF THE ROCKIES...WITH A COUPLE OF EXCEPTIONS...WEAKENING/
DIMINISHING TRENDS ARE ALREADY WELL UNDERWAY WITH RATHER SPARSE
ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

..UPR MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES...
AS A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE MAIN BELT OF POLAR
WESTERLIES DIGS FROM MANITOBA INTO ONTARIO TONIGHT...A BROAD LOWER
AMPLITUDE IMPULSE WITHIN THE WEAK SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES IS PROGGED
TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.
STRONGER LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
IS NOW SPREADING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA...TO THE
NORTH OF A SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL ZONE. THIS APPEARS TO BE
CONTRIBUTING TO RECENT INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS ACROSS THE CHICAGO
AREA. AND...FURTHER DEVELOPMENT INTO GROWING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...WITHIN A MODERATE TO STRONGLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF
2000-3000 J/KG. IF THIS OCCURS...A 30-40 KT MEAN WESTERLY FLOW
REGIME WITH MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
ORGANIZATION AND POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THIS
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS STRONGER FORCING BEGINS TO
DEVELOP INTO LESS MOIST/POTENTIALLY LESS UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.

..LOWER/MID TEXAS COASTAL AREAS...
STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS/LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACH OF ERIN WILL SUPPORT INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES LATE TONIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THIS REGION IS
ALREADY FAVORABLY WARM...VERY MOIST WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S...AND POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE.

.KERR.. 08/16/2007

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KBOU [160033]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KBOU 160033
LSRBOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
633 PM MDT WED AUG 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0505 PM HAIL S BOULDER 40.03N 105.25W
08/15/2007 M0.75 INCH BOULDER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0425 PM HAIL SIMLA 39.14N 104.08W
08/15/2007 M0.88 INCH ELBERT CO TRAINED SPOTTER

RELAYED BY WFO PUEBLO

0220 PM HAIL 1 E PERRY PARK 39.26N 104.96W
08/15/2007 M1.00 INCH DOUGLAS CO TRAINED SPOTTER

ALSO VERIFIED BY CHANNEL NINE TV MEDIA/PHOTO

0200 PM HAIL 2 NE LOVELAND 40.44N 105.05W
08/15/2007 M0.88 INCH LARIMER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

BENTON

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KUNR [160032]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 160032
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
632 PM MDT WED AUG 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0625 PM HAIL PACTOLA RESERVOIR 44.07N 103.50W
08/15/2007 E0.75 INCH PENNINGTON SD NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

$$

BCECIL

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KVEF [160032]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 160032
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
532 PM PDT WED AUG 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0507 PM TSTM WND GST KINGMAN 35.21N 114.03W
08/15/2007 M51 MPH MOHAVE AZ ASOS

&&

$$

CSCHLOTT

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KPAH [160024]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KPAH 160024
LSRPAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
724 PM CDT WED AUG 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0527 PM TSTM WND DMG WOODLAWN 38.33N 89.04W
08/15/2007 JEFFERSON IL FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

LATE REPORT. SEVERAL TREES DOWN OR SNAPPED OFF.
TRANSFORMERS BLOWN OUT. DAMAGE OCCURRED IN THE VILLAGE OF
WOODLAWN ILLINOIS.

0531 PM HAIL ALBION 38.38N 88.06W
08/15/2007 M0.75 INCH EDWARDS IL TRAINED SPOTTER

WIND GUST 50 TO 55 MPH ASSOCIATED WITH STORM. LARGE TREE
LIMBS 8 INCHES TO 1 FOOT IN DIAMETER DOWN. BRIEF
TORRENTIAL RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH STORM.

0547 PM HAIL ALBION 38.38N 88.06W
08/15/2007 M1.00 INCH EDWARDS IL TRAINED SPOTTER

QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN ALBION.

0640 PM TSTM WND DMG FAIRFIELD 38.38N 88.37W
08/15/2007 WAYNE IL LAW ENFORCEMENT

LATE REPORT. MULTIPLE TREES DOWN OR UPROOTED THROUGHOUT
COMMUNITY. LIGHTNING STRIKE TO FIRE STATION.

&&

$$

SMITTY

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KJAX [160024]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 160024
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
823 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0740 PM TSTM WND DMG BAXLEY 31.76N 82.35W
08/15/2007 APPLING GA EMERGENCY MNGR

POWERLINES DOWN DIFFERENT PARTS OF BAXLEY. TIME
ESTIMATED.

&&

$$

ARS

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KPAH [160023]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KPAH 160023
LSRPAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
723 PM CDT WED AUG 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0640 PM TSTM WND DMG FAIRFIELD 38.38N 88.37W
08/15/2007 WAYNE IL LAW ENFORCEMENT

LATE REPORT. MULTIPLE TREES DOWN OR UPROOTED THROUGHOUT
COMMUNITY. LIGHTNING STRIKE TO FIRE STATION.

&&

$$

SMITTY

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KUNR [160021]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 160021
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
621 PM MDT WED AUG 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0615 PM HAIL 3 SE ROCHFORD 44.09N 103.68W
08/15/2007 E0.88 INCH PENNINGTON SD TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

BCECIL

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KVEF [160013]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 160013
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
512 PM PDT WED AUG 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 PM HAIL 13 ESE KINGMAN 35.13N 113.82W
08/15/2007 E0.25 INCH MOHAVE AZ PUBLIC

SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

&&

$$

CBELL

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KUNR [160006]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 160006
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
606 PM MDT WED AUG 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0555 PM HAIL 3 NNE DEERFIELD 44.06N 103.81W
08/15/2007 E0.75 INCH PENNINGTON SD PUBLIC

&&

$$

BCECIL

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KCHS [152354]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 152354
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
754 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0635 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 NW LYNN 31.99N 81.99W
08/15/2007 TATTNALL GA LAW ENFORCEMENT

1 TREE DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 23 AND BOBBY
SPEER ROAD.

&&

$$

DPB

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KPUB [152354]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 152354
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
554 PM MDT WED AUG 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0538 PM HAIL 10 SW ROCKVALE 38.27N 105.29W
08/15/2007 M1.00 INCH FREMONT CO PUBLIC

&&

$$

SHODANIS

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KJAX [152345]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 152345
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
745 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0725 PM TSTM WND DMG 8 NE BAXLEY 31.85N 82.26W
08/15/2007 APPLING GA EMERGENCY MNGR

TREE LIMBS DOWN NEAR MILTON AND HOLMAN ROADS. POWER LINE
DOWN.

&&

$$

ARS

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KPUB [152329]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 152329
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
529 PM MDT WED AUG 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0523 PM HAIL 9 N ROSITA 38.23N 105.33W
08/15/2007 M0.88 INCH CUSTER CO PUBLIC

&&

$$

MN

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KKEY [152327]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 152327
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
727 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0525 PM WATER SPOUT 8 ESE WINDLEY KEY 24.91N 80.48W
08/15/2007 GMZ052 FL LAW ENFORCEMENT

MONROE COUNTY SHERIFFS DEPARTMENT AND A TRAINED STORM
SPOTTER REPORTED A WATERSPOUT ABOUT 1 MILE SOUTH OF
TAVERNIER. DURATION 20 MINUTES.

&&

$$

BS

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KPAH [152322]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KPAH 152322
LSRPAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
622 PM CDT WED AUG 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0527 PM TSTM WND DMG WOODLAWN 38.33N 89.04W
08/15/2007 JEFFERSON IL FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

LATE REPORT. SEVERAL TREES DOWN OR SNAPPED OFF.
TRANSFORMERS BLOWN OUT. DAMAGE OCCURRED IN THE VILLAGE OF
WOODLAWN ILLINOIS.

&&

$$

SMITTY

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KBOU [152315]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOU 152315
LSRBOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
515 PM MDT WED AUG 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0505 PM HAIL S BOULDER 40.03N 105.25W
08/15/2007 M0.75 INCH BOULDER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0425 PM HAIL SIMLA 39.14N 104.08W
08/15/2007 M0.88 INCH ELBERT CO TRAINED SPOTTER

RELAYED BY WFO PUEBLO

0200 PM HAIL 2 NE LOVELAND 40.44N 105.05W
08/15/2007 M0.88 INCH LARIMER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

BENTON

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KDMX [151227]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDMX 151227
LSRDMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
726 AM CDT WED AUG 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0703 AM TSTM WND DMG N ROCKWELL 42.99N 93.19W
08/15/2007 CERRO GORDO IA TRAINED SPOTTER

SEVERAL 6 TO 8 INCH TREE LIMBS DOWN...SOME POSSIBLY
LARGER...BLOCKING AT LEAST 10 ROADS IN THE TOWN OF
ROCKWELL.

&&

$$

PODRAZIK

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1760

ACUS11 KWNS 151216
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151215
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-151315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1760
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0715 AM CDT WED AUG 15 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IA/FAR SWRN WI/NWRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 151215Z - 151315Z

ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NERN IA INTO FAR
SWRN WI/NWRN IL THROUGH 14-15Z AS ELEVATED TSTMS MOVE ESEWD ACROSS
THIS REGION.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A LARGE MCS EXTENDING FROM SRN-SERN MN/
NERN IA EWD INTO SWRN WI/FAR NWRN IL WITH OVERALL CLOUD TOPS WARMING
SINCE 1030Z...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THE COMPLEX IS BEGINNING TO
WEAKEN. AT 12Z...STRONGEST TSTMS EXTENDED FROM FLOYD COUNTY SWWD TO
FRANKLIN COUNTY IN NRN IA...WITH REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING AN
EXTENSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS DOWNSTREAM FROM SERN MN/NERN IA INTO
SWRN WI. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS LEADING CONVECTION EXTENDED
FROM EAST CENTRAL IA WNWWD TO JUST S OF THE STRONGER TSTMS. THIS
ANALYSIS COMBINED WITH 09Z RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED THAT
THIS ACTIVITY IS ELEVATED. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL WAA
WILL PERSIST ACROSS NERN IA INTO SRN WI/NWRN IL THIS MORNING AND
LIKELY MAINTAIN ONGOING TSTM COMPLEX AS IT MOVES EWD. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VALUES ARE ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH
SUPPORTS EMBEDDED LINE SEGMENTS ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF THE MCS.
GIVEN THAT TSTMS ARE ELEVATED...OVERALL WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND
STRONGEST LINE SEGMENT IS TRACKING ESEWD AT 30-35 KT...SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE.

.PETERS.. 08/15/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

42499345 43219289 43499269 43479077 42968941 42188873
41688933 41919174

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KDMX [151203]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDMX 151203
LSRDMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
703 AM CDT WED AUG 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0638 AM TSTM WND DMG 3 N SWALEDALE 43.02N 93.32W
08/15/2007 CERRO GORDO IA LAW ENFORCEMENT

2 SEMIS BLOWN OVER BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 185 AND 186 ON
INTERSTATE 35.

&&

$$

PODRAZIK

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KDMX [151156]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDMX 151156
LSRDMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
656 AM CDT WED AUG 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0623 AM TSTM WND DMG 4 NW THORNTON 42.98N 93.46W
08/15/2007 CERRO GORDO IA TRAINED SPOTTER

ABOUT ONE QUARTER OF TREE TOPS SNAPPED OFF 3 LARGE
TREES...1 COTTONWOOD AND 2 LOCUST TREES. ALSO, SEVERAL 8
INCH DIAMTER TREE LIMBS DOWN.

&&

$$

PODRAZIK

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KLBF [151154]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KLBF 151154
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
653 AM CDT WED AUG 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0607 PM HAIL 11 NE OSHKOSH 41.52N 102.19W
08/14/2007 E1.25 INCH GARDEN NE PUBLIC

0615 PM HAIL 10 NE OSHKOSH 41.51N 102.21W
08/14/2007 E1.00 INCH GARDEN NE CO-OP OBSERVER

QUARTER...DIME AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL LASTING 7-10 MINUTES
COVERING GROUND

0640 PM HAIL LEWELLEN 41.33N 102.14W
08/14/2007 E1.00 INCH GARDEN NE PUBLIC

TSTSM WINDS EST 45 MPH MOVED 4 WHEELER 20 YARDS

0645 PM HAIL 8 NE OSHKOSH 41.49N 102.23W
08/14/2007 E1.75 INCH GARDEN NE CO-OP OBSERVER

2.9 INCHES OF RAINFALL...UNKNOWN IF FLOODING OCCURRED

0655 PM HAIL 4 N LEWELLEN 41.39N 102.14W
08/14/2007 E1.50 INCH GARDEN NE PUBLIC

0716 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 19 NNW BRULE 41.35N 102.03W
08/14/2007 E60.00 MPH KEITH NE PUBLIC

0740 PM HAIL 7 SE PAXTON 41.05N 101.26W
08/14/2007 E1.00 INCH LINCOLN NE PUBLIC

TSTSM WINDS 60+ MPH

0930 PM HAIL 15 NNW OGALLALA 41.33N 101.83W
08/14/2007 E1.50 INCH KEITH NE PUBLIC

0930 PM HAIL 17 N OGALLALA 41.38N 101.72W
08/14/2007 E1.00 INCH KEITH NE PUBLIC

&&

$$

KROBERG

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KDMX [151152]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDMX 151152
LSRDMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
652 AM CDT WED AUG 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0559 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 N BURT 43.21N 94.22W
08/15/2007 KOSSUTH IA LAW ENFORCEMENT

2 POWER POLES DOWNED ONE HALF MILE NORTH OF BURT...TREE
LIMBS DOWN IN BURT.

&&

$$

RVACHALE

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KFGZ [151146]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KFGZ 151146
LSRFGZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
445 AM MST WED AUG 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1130 AM HAIL 26 S JACOB LAKE 36.34N 112.22W
08/14/2007 E0.50 INCH COCONINO AZ PARK/FOREST SRVC

UP TO DIME SIZE HAIL AT NORTH RIM ENTRANCE STATION GRAND
CANYON NP.

1130 AM HAIL MUNDS PARK 34.94N 111.64W
08/14/2007 E0.25 INCH COCONINO AZ CO-OP OBSERVER

PEA-SIZE HAIL

0245 PM HAIL 20 NW FLAGSTAFF 35.39N 111.87W
08/14/2007 E0.75 INCH COCONINO AZ CO-OP OBSERVER

1/2 TO 3/4 INCH HAIL NEAR WHITE BUFFALO RANCH ON HWY 180
MP236.

0614 PM FLOOD 12 SW DILKON 35.26N 110.47W
08/14/2007 NAVAJO AZ LAW ENFORCEMENT

WATER RUNNING OVER HIGHWAY 87 AT MP364

0835 PM FLOOD PAYSON 34.24N 111.33W
08/14/2007 GILA AZ LAW ENFORCEMENT

2ND CROSSING OF EAST VERDE RIVER ON HOUSTON MESA ROAD
IMPASSABLE.

&&

$$

DB

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 150832
SWOD48
SPC AC 150831

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0331 AM CDT WED AUG 15 2007

VALID 181200Z - 231200Z

WHILE THERE APPEARS TO BE GENERAL CONSISTENCY IN THE EVOLUTION OF
THE LARGE SCALE FLOW REGIME AND PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IN THE
MEDIUM RANGE...DETAILS REGARDING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM FORMATION AND
EVOLUTION RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS ARE NOT
AS CLEAR. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SRN STATES SHOULD CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY DECREASE IN STRENGTH AS AMPLIFIED AND MODESTLY STRONGER
FLOW CONTINUES FROM ABOUT 35N LATITUDE...NORTH INTO CANADA. A
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MAY BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN WEAK WLY FLOW ON THE
NWRN PERIPHERY OF THE SHRINKING ANTICYCLONE. THIS RESIDUAL IMPULSE
MAY TRACK SLOWLY FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY THROUGH LATE
DAY 5/SUN-MON BASED ON LATEST ECMWF/GFS.

HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE IN THE EAST THROUGH DAYS 4-5/SAT-MON IN
THE WAKE OF STRONG TROUGH AND FRONTAL INTRUSION OVER THIS REGION.
THE EXTENSIVE FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH DEPARTING NEW
ENGLAND WILL LINGER FROM THE MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST WNWWD ACROSS THE
MS VALLEY TO THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS. THE POSITION OF THIS BOUNDARY
THROUGH DAY 4 IS WELL DEPICTED IN LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS IN
GFS/ECMWF...AND GFS ENS MEAN. WEAK LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE
IMPULSES...PERHAPS CONVECTIVELY INDUCED...WILL TRACK ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AND ENHANCE DEEP-LAYER LIFT AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM
THE NRN PLAINS ESEWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY AREAS THROUGH DAY
6/MON-TUE. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF MCS
ACTIVITY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY..AS WELL AS STRENGTH OF WARM SECTOR
CAP...IT IS TOO SOON TO INTRODUCE AREAS THAT ACCURATELY DEPICT
HIGHER SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES.

SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN ZONAL JET ACROSS THE NERN PACIFIC IS
FORECAST TO CONTRIBUTE TO EVENTUAL EJECTION OF A STRONG UPPER TROUGH
FROM PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO NRN PLAINS AND SCNTRL CANADA DURING DAYS
5-7/SUN-TUE. GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS TROUGH WHEN COMPARED
TO ECMWF. SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF BY MIDWEEK WITH BELT OF
STRONGER WLY FLOW EXTENDING ACROSS THE NRN 1/3RD OF THE CONUS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE FORECAST EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN SUGGESTS A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PERIOD OF SEVERE WEATHER
ANYWHERE FROM THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST DURING DAYS 5-8. HOWEVER...TIMING
AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH BOTH THE TROUGH/UPPER LOW...AND
DEVELOPING STRONGER FLOW IN ITS WAKE...INDICATE AN ACCURATE SEVERE
WEATHER FORECAST IS NOT POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME.

.CARBIN.. 08/15/2007

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1759

ACUS11 KWNS 150755
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150755
AZZ000-150900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1759
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 AM CDT WED AUG 15 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 150755Z - 150900Z

ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN AZ DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS TSTMS TRACK WWD ACROSS THIS REGION. GIVEN
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...WW DOES NOT APPEAR WARRANTED.

OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED AN AXIS OF STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EXTENDING FROM PIMA/PINAL COUNTIES WNWWD THROUGH MARICOPA COUNTY
WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS REMAIN AT 35-40 DEGREES.
INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUST POTENTIAL WITH THE SCATTERED TSTMS THAT
ARE CURRENTLY TRACKING WWD ACROSS SRN AZ. 7 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 50 TO 60S/ ARE MAINTAINING MODERATE INSTABILITY...
WHILE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 20-30 KT OVER SRN AZ SUPPORTS
MULTICELL TSTMS.

.PETERS.. 08/15/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR...

32301403 32961366 33671234 33591082 33421045 32201051
31911055 31551142

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KTWC [150749]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTWC 150749
LSRTWC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1249 AM MST WED AUG 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1233 AM TSTM WND DMG 8 SW TUCSON 32.15N 111.04W
08/15/2007 PIMA AZ LAW ENFORCEMENT

ROOF BLOWN OFF HOUSE NEAR IRVINGTON ROAD AND SUNSET.

&&

$$

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1758

ACUS11 KWNS 150728
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150728
MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-150900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1758
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT WED AUG 15 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD/FAR NERN NEB/SWRN MN/NWRN IA

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 150728Z - 150900Z

LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OF 1.5-2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL
CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY ACROSS SERN SD INTO NWRN IA/SWRN MN THROUGH
10-11Z.

SATELLITE/REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED CLOUD TOPS CONTINUED TO
COOL ACROSS SRN-SERN SD/FAR NERN NEB WITH A MORE ORGANIZED MCS
ACROSS THIS REGION WHICH HAS AN MCV LOCATED ALONG THE SD/NEB BORDER
IN FAR SRN TRIPP COUNTY. DEEP LAYER ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS MCV AND
LOW LEVEL WAA ALONG NOSE OF 40 KT SWLY LLJ EXTENDING INTO NERN
NEB/NWRN IA EXPECTED TO AID IN ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING...AS IS INDICATED BY RADAR TRENDS. AT THE
SURFACE...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED SEWD FROM THE MCV THROUGH EAST
CENTRAL NEB TO SRN IA...WHILE A SECOND WEAKER BOUNDARY EXTENDED EWD
ALONG THE SD/NEB BORDER INTO FAR NRN IA. AT THIS TIME...ASCENT
APPEARS TO BE STRONGEST ALONG AND JUST N OF THIS LATTER BOUNDARY...
WITH THIS TREND EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS
THE MCV MOVES ENEWD. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75-2 INCHES
ACROSS THIS REGION WILL SUPPORT THE EXPECTED HEAVY RAINFALL RATES.

.PETERS.. 08/15/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...

44009829 44269682 44259511 43539483 43129502 42949578
42889664 42899741 42969793

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 150709
SWODY3
SPC AC 150707

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0207 AM CDT WED AUG 15 2007

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS...

..SYNOPSIS...
MODESTLY AMPLIFIED AND PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE
CONUS IS FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE CENTER OF UPPER RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN U.S...THE RIDGE MAY BEGIN
TO WEAKEN AND GRADUALLY SHRINK IN AREAL COVERAGE WITH TIME. THIS
PROCESS UNFOLDS AS IMPULSES EMANATE OUT OF PACIFIC NORTHWEST MEAN
TROUGH AND DAMPEN THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE ROCKIES/NRN PLAINS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...SRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE MAY BE
ERODED/WEAKENED AS DECAYING TROPICAL WAVE TRANSLATES WWD/NWWD OVER
TX.

DEEP TROUGH PRODUCING STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH SATURDAY AS REFRESHING CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS
SPREADS SEWD OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST.
COLD FRONT MARKING THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS AIR MASS SHOULD SETTLE
SOUTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC AND INTO THE CAROLINAS DURING THE
PERIOD. LATEST SREF MEAN PROGS INDICATE THIS FRONT WILL BE SITUATED
FROM SC WNWWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...AND THEN NWWD TO THE MO
VALLEY TO SD BY SATURDAY MORNING.

..MID ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS...
LIFT ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT....AND WITHIN DEVELOPING
THERMAL/LEE TROUGH...WILL PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED TSTMS FROM
DELMARVA SWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THESE AREAS...AND INCREASINGLY STRONG
DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS...EXPECT PRIMARILY ORGANIZED MULTICELL
CONVECTION WITH A FEW TO SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND/HAIL EVENTS POSSIBLE.

..ROCKIES TO NRN PLAINS...
POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE ROCKIES EWD ACROSS THE
PLAINS AS WEAK HEIGHT FALLS/ASCENT SPREAD EWD/NEWD OUT OF
LARGER-SCALE TROUGH DEVELOPING INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
HEATING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL AID IN OVERCOMING STRONG
CAP/INHIBITION ACROSS THESE REGIONS WITH ISOLATED HAIL/WIND
POSSIBLE. FARTHER EAST...ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS/DAKOTAS/MO
VALLEY...STORM INITIATION WILL BE TIED TO EITHER 1) EWD PROPAGATION
AND UPSCALE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION COMING OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN...OR
2) DEVELOPMENT ALONG/NORTH OF FRONTAL ZONE BEING SUSTAINED BY
NOCTURNAL LLJ....OR A COMBINATION OF 1 AND 2. GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE
CAP ANTICIPATED ACROSS THESE AREAS NEAR/BENEATH STRONG UPPER RIDGE
AXIS...AND ONLY WEAK FORCING FROM LOW-AMPLITUDE AND POORLY RESOLVED
SHORT WAVE FEATURES...ONLY A LOW SEVERE PROBABILITY WILL BE FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. STRONG SHEAR WILL LIKELY EXIST ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE
AND IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT LATER FORECASTS DEPICTING THE FRONTAL
LOCATION AND EDGE OF THE CAP WITH GREATER ACCURACY WILL ALLOW FOR
THE ADDITION OF HIGHER SEVERE STORM PROBABILITIES OVER THE NRN
PLAINS AREA.

..TX...
EVENTUAL TRACK OF TROPICAL LOW IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN WITH A NUMBER OF
POTENTIAL OUTCOMES DEPICTED IN LATEST GUIDANCE. MOST MODELS DO
INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH DAY 3. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A
DECAYING TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER TX...AND A CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF
RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR IN A NUMBER OF MODELS...A LOW
PROBABILITY SEVERE WEATHER AREA SEEMS WARRANTED OVER THE CENTER OF
TX FOR FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

.CARBIN.. 08/15/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 150603
SWODY1
SPC AC 150602

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0102 AM CDT WED AUG 15 2007

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND
NRN PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST AND UPPER MS VALLEY...

..WRN GREAT LAKES AND LOWER OH VALLEY...
WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EWD ACROSS MANITOBA. A WEAK SFC LOW IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND DRIFT EWD ACROSS SRN IA WITH
A LOW-LEVEL JET POSITIONED FROM ERN IA AND NRN IL NWD ACROSS WI INTO
UPPER MI. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SFC LOW AND INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MCS DEVELOPMENT APPEARS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET THIS EVENING.

CONCERNING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...THE NAM AND GFS SHOW THE STRONGEST
INSTABILITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM SRN MN AND IA EXTENDING EWD
INTO NRN IL WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S F. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE DUE TO ABOUT 20
KT OF SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND 40 KT OF WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOWN ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL. A POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE MAY ALSO EXIST WITH THE BETTER
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT MOVING CONVECTION EWD ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN INTO LOWER MI
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS PART
OF THE OUTLOOK AREA WILL LIKELY BE MARGINAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.

..UPPER MIDWEST/NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER SRN CANADA EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WILL AMPLIFY TODAY MOVING ACROSS MANITOBA INTO WRN ONTARIO THIS
EVENING. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS SD AND MN.
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE IN
PLACE BY AFTERNOON WHICH COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE BOUNDARY SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD EXIST
ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL MN WHERE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE STRONGER
DUE TO INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.

CONCERNING THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...A 90 KT MID-LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN MANITOBA. THIS
FEATURE WILL CREATE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS NERN
SD...CNTRL MN AND NRN MN. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS
THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON SHOW 500 MB TEMPS OF -10 TO -12 C WHICH
COMBINED WITH THE SHEAR SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW ROTATING
STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY
ALSO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS LAPSE RATES BECOME STEEP.

FURTHER SOUTHWEST ACROSS SERN SD AND NRN NEB...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WEAKER DUE TO LESS OF AN INFLUENCE FROM THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. AS A RESULT...STORM COVERAGE MAY REMAIN ISOLATED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WRN PART OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. ALTHOUGH STRONG
INSTABILITY SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP TODAY...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ALSO BE
WEAKER THAN AREAS FURTHER NORTHEAST. FOR THIS REASON...MOST OF THE
STORMS WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY REMAIN MULTICELLULAR. WIND DAMAGE
AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR PEAK HEATING
WHEN INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

..TEXAS COAST...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IS FORECAST BY THE HURRICANE CENTER TO
APPROACH THE SRN TEXAS COAST TODAY. RAINBANDS FROM THE SYSTEM WILL
GRADUALLY SPREAD INLAND FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE TX COAST INCREASE LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR PROFILES THIS EVENING AND THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT WITH STORMS THAT ROTATE.

.BROYLES/SCHNEIDER.. 08/15/2007

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 150549
SWODY2
SPC AC 150548

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 AM CDT WED AUG 15 2007

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE
UPPER OH VALLEY AND INTO THE NORTHEAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE NRN
STATES INTO FRIDAY AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE IMPULSE DIGS INTO THE
BASE OF THE MEAN TROUGH CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS THE ERN U.S.
A SHARP RIDGE AXIS WILL EXIST UPSTREAM FROM THIS AMPLIFYING
TROUGH...FROM WY/MT NWD ACROSS INTERIOR AND NW CANADA. MEANWHILE...A
DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE NERN PACIFIC MAY MAKE GRADUAL INROADS
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE BROAD SUMMERTIME RIDGE ANCHORED
ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN U.S. WILL PERSIST WITH AN INCREASING
POSSIBILITY THAT A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL BE TRACKING ALONG THE
SRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...ACROSS THE LOWER/MIDDLE TX COASTAL
REGION BASED ON LATEST TPC TRACK FORECAST.

..MIDWEST/OH VALLEY/NORTHEAST...
INCREASINGLY STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH HEIGHT FALLS
AND AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST
SHOULD SUPPORT NUMEROUS TSTMS DEVELOPING WITHIN RAPIDLY EXPANDING
WARM SECTOR FROM IND/OH EWD/NEWD ACROSS PA/NY THROUGH THE DAY AND
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ACROSS THESE
AREAS WILL SUPPORT FAST-MOVING STORMS...LIKELY IN THE FORM OF BOWING
LINE SEGMENTS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED
TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY EVOLVE NEAR WEAK WAVE LOWS...POSSIBLY FORMING
SPORADICALLY ALONG ADVANCING WARM FRONTAL SEGMENTS FROM OH ENEWD
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS POTENTIAL MAY SPREAD EWD ACROSS PARTS OF
ERN NY/SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THESE AREAS SUGGEST WEAK DECOUPLING DEVELOPING IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER GIVEN TIME OF DAY. HOWEVER...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND MAGNITUDE OF FORCING COULD LOCALLY OVERCOME THIS WEAK
LOW LEVEL INHIBITION WITH WIND AND/OR ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT
PERSISTING WITH MORE INTENSE CONVECTIVE CELLS.

AS COLD FRONT SURGES ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES DURING
THE DAY...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION
OF A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE FROM IL/IND/OH EWD ACROSS PA AND
PERHAPS WRN NY. STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS AND
FORCING...COUPLED WITH STRONG INSTABILITY OVER THE UPPER OH
VALLEY...INDICATE A POTENTIAL CORRIDOR OF MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING
WINDS IN THIS REGION.

SHEAR AND FORCING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL WIND SHIFT WILL
DIMINISH WITH WWD EXTENT...FROM IL WWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY.
HOWEVER...STRONG DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THESE
AREAS...COUPLED WITH PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG THE SLOWLY
ADVANCING BOUNDARY...MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW INTENSE STORMS WITH
SOME POTENTIAL FOR MORE ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.

..LOWER/MIDDLE TX COAST AND COASTAL PLAIN...
LATEST TPC TRACK FORECAST FOR TD 5 HAS THE SYSTEM ATTAINING TROPICAL
STORM STATUS AND MAKING LANDFALL NEAR CRP ON THURSDAY. INTENSIFYING
LOW LEVEL SHEAR WITHIN AND RIGHT OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE. REFER TO
LATEST INFORMATION FROM TPC REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROPICAL
SYSTEM.

.CARBIN.. 08/15/2007

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch - Number 597

WWUS20 KWNS 150542
SEL7
SPC WW 150542
NEZ000-150300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - NUMBER 597
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1242 AM CDT WED AUG 15 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 597 ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF

NEBRASKA

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KSLC [150530]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KSLC 150530
LSRSLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1130 PM MDT TUE AUG 14 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 PM HEAVY RAIN ESCALANTE 37.76N 111.60W
08/14/2007 M0.00 INCH GARFIELD UT OFFICIAL NWS OBS

ESCALANTE RIVER WENT FROM 1 TO 224 CFS WITH RADAR
ESTIMATING UP TO 1.00 INCH IN THE AREA

0924 PM HEAVY RAIN 12 NNW MOUNTAIN HOME 40.56N 110.49W
08/14/2007 M0.91 INCH DUCHESNE UT OFFICIAL NWS OBS

MOON LAKE

&&

$$

ATARDY

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KTBW [150521]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTBW 150521
LSRTBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
121 AM EDT WED AUG 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 PM MARINE TSTM WIND ARIPEKA 28.43N 82.67W
08/14/2007 M46.00 MPH HERNANDO FL MESONET

INITIAL OCCURRENCE OF GALE FORCE GUSTS AT COMPS SITE.

1112 PM TSTM WND GST ARIPEKA 28.43N 82.67W
08/14/2007 M60.00 MPH HERNANDO FL MESONET

GUST REPORTED AT THE USF COMPS STATION AT ARIPEKA ALONG
EAST SIDE OF HAMMOCK CREEK BRIDGE. DURATION OF 50 KNOT
GUSTS CONTINUED UNTIL 1118 PM.

1112 PM MARINE TSTM WIND ARIPEKA 28.43N 82.67W
08/14/2007 M60.00 MPH HERNANDO FL MESONET

INITIAL OCCURRENCE OF STORM FORCE GUSTS RECORDED AT COMPS
LOCATION AT THE LAND AND GULF INTERFACE IN ARIPEKA.

&&
ADDITIONAL REPORTS MAY BE RECEIVED OVERNIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY FROM
OTHER LOCATIONS IN SOUTHWEST HERNANDO AND NORTHWEST PASCO COUNTY.
$$

BSG

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