SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150755
AZZ000-150900-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1759
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 AM CDT WED AUG 15 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AZ
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 150755Z - 150900Z
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN AZ DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS TSTMS TRACK WWD ACROSS THIS REGION. GIVEN
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...WW DOES NOT APPEAR WARRANTED.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED AN AXIS OF STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EXTENDING FROM PIMA/PINAL COUNTIES WNWWD THROUGH MARICOPA COUNTY
WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS REMAIN AT 35-40 DEGREES.
INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUST POTENTIAL WITH THE SCATTERED TSTMS THAT
ARE CURRENTLY TRACKING WWD ACROSS SRN AZ. 7 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 50 TO 60S/ ARE MAINTAINING MODERATE INSTABILITY...
WHILE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 20-30 KT OVER SRN AZ SUPPORTS
MULTICELL TSTMS.
.PETERS.. 08/15/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR...
32301403 32961366 33671234 33591082 33421045 32201051
31911055 31551142
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