KPAH [030357]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KPAH 030357
LSRPAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1056 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1020 PM HEAVY RAIN PADUCAH 37.07N 88.64W
09/02/2009 E0.00 INCH MCCRACKEN KY EMERGENCY MNGR

ALONG PORTIONS OF 21ST STREET BETWEEN OLD MAYFIELD ROAD
AND JACKSON STREET, ONE TO THREE FEET OF STANDING WATER.
REPORTED BY OEM AND POLICE.

&&

$$

AD

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KAMA [030257]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KAMA 030257
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
957 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0624 PM HAIL BORGER 35.66N 101.40W
09/02/2009 E1.00 INCH HUTCHINSON TX TRAINED SPOTTER

0624 PM HAIL BORGER 35.66N 101.40W
09/02/2009 E0.88 INCH HUTCHINSON TX EMERGENCY MNGR

0624 PM FLASH FLOOD 3 SW BORGER 35.63N 101.44W
09/02/2009 HUTCHINSON TX EMERGENCY MNGR

*** 2 FATAL *** TEXAS STATE HIGHWAY 136 CLOSED AT THE
INTERSECTION WITH FARM TO MARKET ROAD 1551 DUE TO 6
INCHES OF WATER FLOWING ACROSS IT. 2 FATALITIES ON
HIGHWAY 136 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BORGER. TWO VEHICLE
ACCIDENT DUE TO HYDROPLANING OF A TRUCK INTO ANOTHER
VEHICLE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA0900231 AMA0900232 AMA0900233

$$

LG

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KFSD [030243]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFSD 030243
LSRFSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
943 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0930 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 WNW LAKE PRESTON 44.38N 97.45W
09/02/2009 M5.13 INCH KINGSBURY SD TRAINED SPOTTER

WATER GOT INTO GARAGE AND KITCHEN.

&&

$$

WILLIAMS

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KLBF [030155]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KLBF 030155
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
855 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0512 PM HAIL 10 NNE STUART 42.73N 99.06W
09/02/2009 E0.50 INCH HOLT NE PUBLIC

0517 PM HAIL 9 NNE STUART 42.72N 99.07W
09/02/2009 E1.00 INCH HOLT NE PUBLIC

MOSTLY PEA SIZED HAIL...BUT A FEW AS LARGE AS A QUARTER.

0630 PM TSTM WND DMG 16 NW TAYLOR 41.93N 99.60W
09/02/2009 LOUP NE TRAINED SPOTTER

THUNDERSTORM WINDS OF AN UNKNOWN MAGNITUDE BLEW OVER A
PRIVACY FENCE AND DOWNED SMALL TREE BRANCHES.

0635 PM HAIL 16 NW TAYLOR 41.93N 99.60W
09/02/2009 E1.50 INCH LOUP NE TRAINED SPOTTER

PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND STRONG WINDS. TIME ESTIMATED.

0637 PM HAIL 16 NNW TAYLOR 41.98N 99.50W
09/02/2009 E1.50 INCH LOUP NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL.

0810 PM HAIL 4 WNW TAYLOR 41.79N 99.45W
09/02/2009 E0.50 INCH LOUP NE PUBLIC

0815 PM HAIL 2 WNW TAYLOR 41.78N 99.42W
09/02/2009 E1.50 INCH LOUP NE PUBLIC

THE REPORTED HAIL STONES WERE AS SMALL AS PEAS...AND AS
LARGE AS PING PONG BALLS.

&&

$$

CJS

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KLBF [030155]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 030155
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
854 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 PM TSTM WND DMG 16 NW TAYLOR 41.93N 99.60W
09/02/2009 LOUP NE TRAINED SPOTTER

THUNDERSTORM WINDS OF AN UNKNOWN MAGNITUDE BLEW OVER A
PRIVACY FENCE AND DOWNED SMALL TREE BRANCHES.

0635 PM HAIL 16 NW TAYLOR 41.93N 99.60W
09/02/2009 E1.50 INCH LOUP NE TRAINED SPOTTER

PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND STRONG WINDS. TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

$$

CJS

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KFSD [030133]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFSD 030133
LSRFSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
833 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0820 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 WSW LAKE PRESTON 44.33N 97.45W
09/02/2009 E3.00 INCH KINGSBURY SD EMERGENCY MNGR

RAINFALL OF 3 INCHES WITH HEAVY RAIN STILL FALLING.

&&

$$

WILLIAMS

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KLBF [030121]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 030121
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
821 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0815 PM HAIL 2 WNW TAYLOR 41.78N 99.42W
09/02/2009 E1.50 INCH LOUP NE PUBLIC

THE REPORTED HAIL STONES WERE AS SMALL AS PEAS...AND AS
LARGE AS PING PONG BALLS.

&&

$$

CJS

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KLBF [030117]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 030117
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
817 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0810 PM HAIL 4 WNW TAYLOR 41.79N 99.45W
09/02/2009 E0.50 INCH LOUP NE PUBLIC

&&

$$

CJS

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KBOU [030116]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOU 030116
LSRBOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
715 PM MDT WED SEP 02 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0707 PM HAIL 1 N GENOA 39.29N 103.50W
09/02/2009 M1.75 INCH LINCOLN CO LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

FREDIN

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 030103
SWODY1
SPC AC 030059

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2009

VALID 030100Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL NEB....

...SYNOPSIS...
PATTERN ALOFT FEATURES MEAN TROUGHING OVER ERN CONUS AND RIDGING IN
W. NERN PACIFIC MID-UPPER CYCLONE -- ITS CENTER NOW EVIDENT IN
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY INVOF 45N134W -- IS EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY
SLIGHTLY AND BECOME STG/OPEN-WAVE TROUGH...MOVING ONSHORE WA/ORE
COAST AROUND 12Z. COMPACT MID-UPPER LOW OVER SERN SD IS FCST TO
MOVE SSEWD ACROSS ERN NEB THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD. ANOTHER
MID-UPPER CYCLONE OF SIMILAR SIZE/INTENSITY OVER SWRN IL IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS WRN KY OVERNIGHT. FARTHER SE...BROAD/DIFFUSE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEWD
ACROSS GA -- SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY EWD.

AT SFC AT 23Z...DIFFUSE COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM SERN SD LOW
NWWD THROUGH WEAKER LOW OVER NWRN SD...THEN NWD ACROSS WRN ND. THIS
FRONT SHOULD MOVE WWD AND SWWD ACROSS MUCH OF SRN/WRN SD AND
REMAINDER ND. MEANWHILE...WARM FRONT -- DRAWN FROM LOW SWWD ACROSS
CENTRAL NEB TO CENTRAL CO -- SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY SEWD AND BECOME MORE
ILL-DEFINED IN THERMAL FIELD AFTER NIGHTFALL...GIVEN DRIER AIR MASS
AT HIGHER ALTITUDE ON ITS W SIDE. SEPARATE WARM FRONT -- ALSO
DEMARCATING WARMER AND MORE WELL-MIXED AIR TO ITS W -- WAS ANALYZED
FROM SWRN KS SEWD ACROSS WRN OK TO PORTIONS NW/N-CENTRAL TX. WRN
SEGMENT OF THIS FRONT -- FROM NW OK NWWD...MAY RETURN SWD OVERNIGHT
IN RESPONSE TO WEAK SFC CYCLOGENESIS INVOF SWRN OK.

...PORTIONS NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
LOW LEVEL LIFT ALONG/AHEAD OF WARM FRONT...JUXTAPOSED WITH
RELATIVELY MOIST/SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS AND STG
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...IS CONTRIBUTING TO FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
STG-SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS SD/NEB. STORM MODE OVER NEB MAY
REMAIN INTERMITTENTLY SUPERCELLULAR...WHILE LINEAR AND WEAKER
CONVECTION HAS BECOME PREDOMINANT OVER ERN SD...IN E-CENTRAL SECTOR
OF COLD-CORE UPPER LOW. REMAINING SVR THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE
RATHER SHORT-LIVED...AND SHOULD DIMINISH SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER DARK.
MLCINH IS FCST TO INCREASE PROHIBITIVELY FOR SFC-BASED PARCELS AFTER
04Z...BASED ON MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS AND LBF RAOB ADJUSTED FOR
GREATER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT.

..EDWARDS.. 09/03/2009

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KSGX [030055]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSGX 030055
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
555 PM PDT WED SEP 02 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 NE RAMONA 33.07N 116.83W
09/02/2009 M1.25 INCH SAN DIEGO CA MESONET

A THUNDERSTORM DUMPED 1.25 INCHES OF RAIN AT THE GOOSE
VALLEY RAWS.

0330 PM HAIL 8 ENE RAMONA 33.08N 116.74W
09/02/2009 E0.75 INCH SAN DIEGO CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY LAW ENFORECMENT ALONG HIGHWAY
78 NEAR THE WITCH CREEK AREA.

0333 PM FLASH FLOOD 7 ENE RAMONA 33.07N 116.76W
09/02/2009 SAN DIEGO CA COUNTY OFFICIAL

FOUR INCHES OF MUD AND WATER WAS REPORTED ON HIGHWAY 78
NEAR WITCH CREEK AFTER A THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN
MOVED THROUGH.

0430 PM HEAVY RAIN DESCANSO 32.85N 116.61W
09/02/2009 M1.23 INCH SAN DIEGO CA MESONET

TWO THUNDERSTORMS DUMPED 1.23 INCHES OF RAIN AT THE
DESCANSO RAWS.

&&

$$

SCV

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KAMA [030052]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 030052
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
751 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0624 PM FLASH FLOOD 3 SW BORGER 35.63N 101.44W
09/02/2009 HUTCHINSON TX EMERGENCY MNGR

*** 2 FATAL *** TEXAS STATE HIGHWAY 136 CLOSED AT THE
INTERSECTION WITH FARM TO MARKET ROAD 1551 DUE TO 6
INCHES OF WATER FLOWING ACROSS IT. 2 FATALITIES ON
HIGHWAY 136 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BORGER. TWO VEHICLE
ACCIDENT DUE TO HYDROPLANING OF A TRUCK INTO ANOTHER
VEHICLE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA0900233

$$

LG

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KSGX [030012]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSGX 030012
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
512 PM PDT WED SEP 02 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 PM HEAVY RAIN MORENO VALLEY 33.93N 117.21W
09/02/2009 M0.55 INCH RIVERSIDE CA COUNTY OFFICIAL

RIVERSIDE COUNTY FLOOD CONTROL REPORTED 0.55 INCHES OF
RAIN IN 24 MINUTES NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE 60
FREEWAY AND MORENO BEACH DRIVE.

&&

$$

IJS

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KAMA [022342]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 022342
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
642 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0624 PM HAIL BORGER 35.66N 101.40W
09/02/2009 E0.88 INCH HUTCHINSON TX EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA0900232

$$

CLK

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KAMA [022341]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 022341
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
641 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0624 PM HAIL BORGER 35.66N 101.40W
09/02/2009 E1.00 INCH HUTCHINSON TX TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA0900231

$$

CLK

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KLBF [022341]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 022341
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
640 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0637 PM HAIL 16 NNW TAYLOR 41.98N 99.50W
09/02/2009 E1.50 INCH LOUP NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL.

&&

$$

CJS

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KSGX [022301]: Flash Flood Statement

NWUS56 KSGX 022301
LSRSGX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
346 PM PDT WED SEP 2 2009

CAC073-030030-
/O.CON.KSGX.FF.W.0005.000000T0000Z-090903T0030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN DIEGO CA-
346 PM PDT WED SEP 2 2009

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM PDT FOR
CENTRAL SAN DIEGO COUNTY...

AT 330 PM PDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED HEAVY RAIN CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING OVER THE WARNED AREA. LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT HAS ALSO REPORTED DEBRIS IN THE ROADWAY ALONG HIGHWAY 78
BETWEEN RAMONA AND WITCH CREEK.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SANTA
YSABEL...JULIAN...RAMONA...AND SAN DIEGO COUNTRY ESTATES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM HAS ALREADY PRODUCED AN INCH OF RAIN IN SOME LOCATIONS.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF TO OVER ONE INCH ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES
AS WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 3324 11683 3324 11668 3312 11653 3289 11675
3297 11691

$$

SS

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KLBF [022220]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 022220
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
520 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0517 PM HAIL 9 NNE STUART 42.72N 99.07W
09/02/2009 E1.00 INCH HOLT NE PUBLIC

MOSTLY PEA SIZED HAIL...BUT A FEW AS LARGE AS A QUARTER.

&&

$$

BTAYLOR

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KLBF [022215]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 022215
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
515 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0512 PM HAIL 10 NNE STUART 42.73N 99.06W
09/02/2009 E0.50 INCH HOLT NE PUBLIC

&&

$$

BTAYLOR

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1987

ACUS11 KWNS 022133
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022132
SDZ000-NEZ000-022300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1987
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0432 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...S CENTRAL AND SERN SD SWD INTO CENTRAL NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 022132Z - 022300Z

LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WITH STORMS DEVELOPING S AND E OF THE SD UPPER
LOW MAY REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE.

UPPER LOW CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL SD...WITH A
BROKEN LINE OF STRONG STORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP S AND E OF THE
LOW. THE STRONGER CELLS EXTEND ATTM FROM SRN HAND COUNTY SD --
NEAR/JUST E OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION -- SSWWD INTO ROCK COUNTY
NEB -- WHERE LOW 60S BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING HAVE YIELDED 500 TO 1000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE.

WHILE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG -- ON THE ORDER OF
25 KT PER AREA VWP/PROFILER DATA...VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT AND
AMBIENT VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER CIRCULATION CENTER IS
RESULTING IN LOW-LEVEL ROTATION WITH STRONGER CELLS. THUS...LIMITED
THREAT FOR ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADOES APPEARS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH
MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. THOUGH THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED TO A FEW OF THE STRONGEST CELLS...THE
POTENTIAL FOR THIS THREAT TO PERSIST INTO THE MID EVENING HOURS
SUGGESTS THAT A WW MAY BE NEEDED.

..GOSS.. 09/02/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON 43209919 44469943 44179843 43369771 41469800 41189993
41949990 42809936 43209919

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KFSD [022133]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFSD 022133
LSRFSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
433 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0430 PM HAIL KIMBALL 43.75N 98.96W
09/02/2009 E0.50 INCH BRULE SD EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

$$

JC

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KFSD [022127]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFSD 022127
LSRFSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
427 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0355 PM TORNADO 3 W KIMBALL 43.74N 99.01W
09/02/2009 BRULE SD EMERGENCY MNGR

CONTINUATION OF PATH. TORNADO ON GROUND WITH DEBRIS FOR
4-5 MINUTES FROM INITIAL TOUCHDOWN.

&&

$$

JC

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KJAX [022106]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 022106
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
505 PM EDT WED SEP 02 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0440 PM FLOOD 10 W BUNNELL 29.47N 81.43W
09/02/2009 FLAGLER FL EMERGENCY MNGR

THE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED A WASHOUT AT DAYTONA
NORTH ON FOREST PARK ROAD BETWEEN EVERGREEN ROAD AND
WALNUT ROAD. THESE ARE SECONDARY DIRT ROADS.

&&

$$

PP

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KFSD [022103]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFSD 022103
LSRFSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
403 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0351 PM TORNADO 4 W KIMBALL 43.74N 99.03W
09/02/2009 BRULE SD FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

$$

PSCHUMAC

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KJAX [022050]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 022050
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
450 PM EDT WED SEP 02 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0420 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 E BUNNELL 29.47N 81.19W
09/02/2009 M3.00 INCH FLAGLER FL EMERGENCY MNGR

THE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT RECEIVED A REPORT OF 3 INCHES OF
RAIN IN ONE HOUR 1.5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 95 AND
STATE ROAD 100.

&&

$$

PP

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KJAX [022009]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 022009
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
409 PM EDT WED SEP 02 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0406 PM HEAVY RAIN JACKSONVILLE INTL ARPT 30.48N 81.71W
09/02/2009 M4.11 INCH DUVAL FL ASOS

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS OFFICIALLY RECORDED 4.11
INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR TODAY WHICH INCLUDES 2.92 INCHES
THAT OCCURRED IN ONE HOUR BETWEEN 11 AM AND NOON.

&&

$$

PP

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KJAX [021955]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 021955
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
355 PM EDT WED SEP 02 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1150 AM HEAVY RAIN FLAGLER BEACH 29.47N 81.13W
09/02/2009 M2.06 INCH FLAGLER FL TRAINED SPOTTER

FLAGLER COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED 2.06 INCHES
OF RAIN IN FLAGLER BEACH SINCE 315 PM EDT.

&&

$$

SANDRIK

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 021954
SWODY1
SPC AC 021951

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2009

VALID 022000Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...CENTRAL PLAINS...

CENTRAL PLAINS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH
AN AXIS OF STRONG HEATING DOES EXTEND OFF THE HIGH PLAINS EWD ALONG
THE SD/NE BORDER. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO A SMALL POCKET OF 1000
J/KG MLCAPE ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LOW. LATEST VIS
IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS WITH THE GREATEST/THICKER CU DEVELOPMENT NOW
OCCURRING WITHIN STEEPER LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS SRN SD INTO
NCNTRL NE. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVOLVE WITHIN THIS DEEPENING CU
FIELD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...A FEW MAY OBTAIN SUPERCELL
CHARACTERISTICS...IN LINE WITH LATE MORNING FORECAST.

...SOUTHWESTERN DESERTS...

AN AXIS HIGH PWAT EXTENDS NWD ALONG THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY INTO
SERN CA/SWRN AZ WITH VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES. ALTHOUGH
BOUNDARY LAYER CU HAVE YET TO DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION...AS
TEMPERATURES WARM IN EXCESS OF 100-105F SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN THIS MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS. GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE CONTENT...A FEW DOWNBURSTS MAY BE OBSERVED WITH
STRONGER ACTIVITY.

..DARROW/COOK.. 09/02/2009

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT WED SEP 02 2009/

...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO ONGOING OUTLOOK...WITH MODELS CONSISTENT IN SLOW
SSEWD MOTION TO MID/UPPER LOW NOW OVER SD. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES
INDICATE SYSTEM CONTAINS SLIGHTLY WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES IN
ITS CORE. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/HEATING SHOULD
SUPPORT AXIS OF MARGINAL MLCAPE BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ALONG
AND JUST EAST OF ASSOCIATED LEE TROUGH/N-S SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING
ACROSS CENTRAL-WRN SD/NEB. IN ADDITION...ENHANCED BELT OF NWLY
MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS ALONG SWRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER CIRCULATION WILL
MAINTAIN MODEST TO STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH SFC-6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 40 KT. STORMS SHOULD INCREASE/DEVELOP SWWD INTO GREATER
INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND LIKELY SUSTAIN AT LEAST
A LOW-END SLGT RISK OF HAIL/WIND GIVEN DEGREE OF SHEAR AND
POSSIBILITY OF A SUPERCELL OR TWO.

FARTHER SW...EXPECTED SEVERE THREAT GETS INCREASINGLY MARGINAL AS
DIURNAL STORMS DEVELOP NEAR LEE LOW/SURFACE TROUGH AND MOVE OFF
HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD OVERCOME WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO
SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITY THREATS OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND.

...SRN AZ...
COMPLEX FORECAST ACROSS AZ TODAY WITH WV IMAGERY INDICATING SEPARATE
MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUMES PERSISTING OVER SRN AND NRN AZ...WITH AREA
OF DRYING/SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN. HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITHIN
THESE AREAS OF GREATER MID LEVEL MOISTURE. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND OVERALL INCREASE IN PW/S SHOULD PRODUCE A FEW STRONGER
CORES...ESPECIALLY OVER SRN AZ WHERE PW/S WILL BE APPROACHING 1.5
INCHES.

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KJAX [021954]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 021954
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
353 PM EDT WED SEP 02 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1150 AM HEAVY RAIN BUNNELL 29.47N 81.26W
09/02/2009 U0.00 INCH FLAGLER FL TRAINED SPOTTER

FLAGLER COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED HEAVY
RAINFALL WAS OCCURRING IN SOUTHERN BUNNELL WITH 4 TO 5
INCHES OF WATER ON UNITED STATES HIGHWAY 1.

&&

$$

SANDRIK

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KJAX [021716]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 021716
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
116 PM EDT WED SEP 02 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1237 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 SW UNF 30.25N 81.54W
09/02/2009 E0.00 INCH DUVAL FL TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM SPOTTER REPORTED MODERATE STREET ALONG GATE PKWY AT
THE TOWN CENTER.

&&

$$

SP

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 021713
SWODY2
SPC AC 021710

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1210 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2009

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SOUTHERN PLAINS...

UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL SD WILL DIG SSEWD INTO SERN KS/NERN OK
THURSDAY...GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED WITHIN BROADER
TROUGH OVER THE MS/OH VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE MID LEVEL
NNWLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS WHILE SERVING TO DRIVE EFFECTIVE SFC
FRONT TO A POSITION NEAR THE RED RIVER OF OK/TX BY LATE AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH CONVERGENCE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED ALONG LEADING WIND
SHIFT...STRONG SFC HEATING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WILL STEEPEN LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUFFICIENTLY FOR SFC PARCELS TO APPROACH THEIR
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
WITHIN SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE FOR A FEW ORGANIZED
ROBUST MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS. GUSTY WINDS OR PERHAPS SOME HAIL COULD
ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY.

...ELSEWHERE...

SCATTERED-NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN
ROCKIES INTO NRN MEXICO WHILE THE FL PENINSULA WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
CONVECTIVE-ACTIVE AHEAD OF WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH.
THERMODYNAMIC/SHEAR PROFILES IN THESE AREAS DO NOT APPEAR
PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINING ORGANIZED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

..DARROW.. 09/02/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 021629
SWODY1
SPC AC 021626

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CDT WED SEP 02 2009

VALID 021630Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO ONGOING OUTLOOK...WITH MODELS CONSISTENT IN SLOW
SSEWD MOTION TO MID/UPPER LOW NOW OVER SD. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES
INDICATE SYSTEM CONTAINS SLIGHTLY WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES IN
ITS CORE. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/HEATING SHOULD
SUPPORT AXIS OF MARGINAL MLCAPE BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ALONG
AND JUST EAST OF ASSOCIATED LEE TROUGH/N-S SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING
ACROSS CENTRAL-WRN SD/NEB. IN ADDITION...ENHANCED BELT OF NWLY
MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS ALONG SWRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER CIRCULATION WILL
MAINTAIN MODEST TO STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH SFC-6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 40 KT. STORMS SHOULD INCREASE/DEVELOP SWWD INTO GREATER
INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND LIKELY SUSTAIN AT LEAST
A LOW-END SLGT RISK OF HAIL/WIND GIVEN DEGREE OF SHEAR AND
POSSIBILITY OF A SUPERCELL OR TWO.

FARTHER SW...EXPECTED SEVERE THREAT GETS INCREASINGLY MARGINAL AS
DIURNAL STORMS DEVELOP NEAR LEE LOW/SURFACE TROUGH AND MOVE OFF
HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD OVERCOME WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO
SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITY THREATS OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND.

...SRN AZ...
COMPLEX FORECAST ACROSS AZ TODAY WITH WV IMAGERY INDICATING SEPARATE
MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUMES PERSISTING OVER SRN AND NRN AZ...WITH AREA
OF DRYING/SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN. HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITHIN
THESE AREAS OF GREATER MID LEVEL MOISTURE. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND OVERALL INCREASE IN PW/S SHOULD PRODUCE A FEW STRONGER
CORES...ESPECIALLY OVER SRN AZ WHERE PW/S WILL BE APPROACHING 1.5
INCHES.

..EVANS/GRAMS.. 09/02/2009

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KJAX [021553]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 021553
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1153 AM EDT WED SEP 02 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1150 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 N OCEANWAY 30.48N 81.63W
09/02/2009 M6.00 INCH DUVAL FL NWS EMPLOYEE

AN OFF DUTY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EMPLOYEE REPORTED
SIX INCHES OF RAIN SINCE 8 PM EDT LAST EVENING AND OF
THAT 3.25 INCHES HAD FALLEN SINCE 1040 AM EDT.

&&

$$

SANDRIK

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KJAX [021548]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 021548
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1148 AM EDT WED SEP 02 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1146 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 ENE KINGSLAND 30.80N 81.65W
09/02/2009 M4.55 INCH CAMDEN GA NWS EMPLOYEE

A RETIRED NNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EMPLOYEE REPORTED
4.55 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE LAST EVENING AND 2.5 INCHES OF
THAT FELL SINCE 800 AM EDT THIS MORNING.

&&

$$

SANDRIK

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KTOP [021436]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 021436
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
936 AM CDT WED SEP 02 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0934 AM HEAVY RAIN WILLARD 39.09N 95.94W
09/02/2009 M3.80 INCH SHAWNEE KS TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

BN

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KTOP [021424]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KTOP 021424
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
924 AM CDT WED SEP 02 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0920 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 N SCRANTON 38.80N 95.74W
09/02/2009 M3.45 INCH OSAGE KS TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

BN

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KTOP [021422]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 021422
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
921 AM CDT WED SEP 02 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0920 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 N SCRANTON 38.80N 95.74W
09/02/2009 M3.80 INCH OSAGE KS TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

BN

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 021255
SWODY1
SPC AC 021252

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 AM CDT WED SEP 02 2009

VALID 021300Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLNS...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER THE LWR 48 WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED
THIS PERIOD...WITH THE MAIN BELT OF THE WLYS REMAINING WELL TO THE N
IN CNTRL CANADA. SD UPR LOW SHOULD CONTINUE SLOWLY SE INTO ERN NEB
BY 12Z THU...BACKED BY WEAK HEIGHT RISES OCCURRING DOWNSTREAM FROM
UPR LOW/TROUGH NOW APPROACHING THE WA/ORE CST. FARTHER S...
HURRICANE JIMENA EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NW ALONG THE BAJA CA CST.

...PLNS...
SD UPR LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT
THIS PERIOD. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE STG TO SVR FROM SRN SD
INTO CNTRL/ERN NEB THIS AFTN/EVE AS ENHANCED MID LVL NWLY FLOW ON SW
SIDE OF LOW INTERACTS WITH SOMEWHAT GREATER MOISTURE /PW AOA 1 INCH/
THAN HAS BEEN AVAILABLE TO THE SYSTEM IN RECENT DAYS.

ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL STILL BE MODEST BY EARLY
SEPTEMBER STANDARDS...COMBINATION OF 50S F SFC DEWPOINTS AND
COOL MID LVL TEMPERATURES /AOB MINUS 10 C AT 500 MB/ WILL SUPPORT A
RISK FOR SVR HAIL/GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG N-S SFC TROUGH/WEAK
FRONT...WHERE SBCAPE MAY REACH 1000-1500 J/KG .

LOW LVL VEERING WIND PROFILES BENEATH 40 KT WNW MID LVL FLOW SHOULD
SUPPORT SCTD MULTICELLS AND PERHAPS A FEW SUPERCELLS THROUGH EARLY
EVE. WHILE THESE MAY COALESCE INTO A SMALL MCS LATER TONIGHT...
DIURNAL COOLING AND MODEST LLJ SUGGEST THAT SVR THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER DARK.

FARTHER SW FROM UPR LOW...EWD ADVECTION OF EML AND MODEST MOISTURE
LIKELY WILL PROHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF DAYTIME STORMS OVER THE LWR PLNS
ROUGHLY FROM THE NEB/KS BORDER OR I-70 SWD. DIURNAL STORMS
WILL...HOWEVER ...LIKELY FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE CO/FAR
NE NM BY LATE THIS AFTN ON WRN FRINGE OF LOW LVL MOISTURE AXIS OVER
THE SRN/CNTRL HI PLNS. AND...DEVELOPMENT ALSO MAY OCCUR A BIT LATER
OVER THE OK/TX PANHANDLES...N AND E OF WEAK THERMAL/LEE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED STNRY FRONT. ISOLD SVR HAIL/WIND MAY OCCUR WITH THESE
STORMS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
WEAK/DISORGANIZED GIVEN LIMITED DEEP SHEAR ON ERN FRINGE OF GRT
BASIN RDG.

...SRN AZ...
MOISTURE HAS INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY OVER SRN AZ SINCE EARLIER IN
THE WEEK...WITH PW NOW ABOUT 1.50 INCHES PER RAOB/GPS AND STLT DATA.
PROXIMITY OF UPR RDG WILL KEEP MEAN FLOW WEAK...AND SOME LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE MAY AFFECT THE REGION ON THE NRN FRINGE OF JIMENA. BUT
COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE WITH STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE RATES AND
THE LIKELIHOOD FOR AT LEAST SCTD DIURNAL STORMS SUGGESTS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLD DMGG WIND EVENTS WITH OUTFLOW-INDUCED BLOWING
DUST.

..CORFIDI/SMITH.. 09/02/2009

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1986

ACUS11 KWNS 021157
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021157
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-021400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1986
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0657 AM CDT WED SEP 02 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...FAR NE OK AND FAR SW MO

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 021157Z - 021400Z

A HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ERN KS AND MAY AFFECT PARTS
OF FAR NE OK AND FAR SW MO THIS MORNING. RAINFALL RATES AROUND 2
INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME SPOTS ESPECIALLY WHERE
ECHOES TRAIN OVER THE SAME LOCATION FOR LONGER PERIODS OF TIME.

A STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME PARTLY ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE
OVER ECNTRL KS IS CURRENTLY SET UP ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPANDING IN COVERAGE IN ERN KS. THE STORMS
ARE LOCATED ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD HELP SUSTAIN THE STORMS THROUGH
THE MID-MORNING. GPS PW DATA SHOWS A POCKET OF INCREASED MOISTURE
ACROSS ERN KS WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE OBSERVED AROUND
1.6 INCHES. MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 800 TO 1200 J/KG RANGE ESTIMATED BY
THE RUC AND LIFT WITH THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL CREATE
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. A
FEW AREAS IN SE KS NEAR THE MO STATE-LINE MAY RECEIVE 2 INCHES PER
HOUR RAINFALL RATES. MODEL FORECASTS ARE CONSISTENT IN WEAKENING THE
BAND OF STORMS BY THE 15Z TO 18Z TIMEFRAME.

..BROYLES/SMITH.. 09/02/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON 38429501 38779536 38779565 38549583 37859570 37069544
36529523 36389486 36449449 36659430 37099433 37669457
38089481 38429501

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 020848
SWOD48
SPC AC 020848

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 AM CDT WED SEP 02 2009

VALID 051200Z - 101200Z

...POTENTIAL TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A SEVERE THREAT AREA...

A LINGERING MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOWER
MISSOURI/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY IMPEDE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AT LEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING
WEEKEND. THIS IS WHEN THE SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLES AND
VARIABILITY AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IS AT ITS SMALLEST...
CONCERNING A SIGNIFICANT POLAR TROUGH EMANATING FROM THE PACIFIC.
DISCREPANCIES IN THE UPPER FLOW EVOLUTION GROW CONSIDERABLY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT IT CURRENTLY SEEMS MOST PROBABLE THAT
THE STRONGER BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR OR NORTH
OF THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER. WHILE IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT THE
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS COULD INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY...RELATIVE TO THE PAST WEEK...THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED
REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT APPEARS LOW.

..KERR.. 09/02/2009

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 020716
SWODY3
SPC AC 020714

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0214 AM CDT WED SEP 02 2009

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT A STRONG POLAR JET STREAK WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE
TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST DURING THIS PERIOD ...AROUND THE
BASE OF AN EVOLVING COLD LOW/UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC. AS THIS OCCURS...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BUILD
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...TO
THE NORTH/WEST OF AN INCREASINGLY CUT-OFF AND WEAKENING MID-LEVEL
LOW OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU. AS THE CIRCULATION
BECOMES MORE OR LESS STATIONARY... LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
FIELDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. ARE PROGGED TO
REMAIN OR BECOME QUITE WEAK...WHILE SIMILARLY WEAK FLOW PREVAILS
BENEATH MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLATEAU.
THESE TRENDS...COUPLED WITH DESTABILIZATION LIKELY LIMITED TO
GENERALLY WEAK TO MODERATE LEVELS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST/ROCKIES...SOUTHERN PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU...AND FLORIDA
PENINSULA...SUGGEST THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS FRIDAY IS MINIMAL.

..KERR.. 09/02/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 020540
SWODY1
SPC AC 020539

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1239 AM CDT WED SEP 02 2009

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE REGIME WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH WEAK
WESTERLIES OVER THE CONUS. AS MEAN UPPER TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...PERSISTENT UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSITION ESE OVER THE MIDDLE MO RIVER VALLEY TODAY. A MODESTLY
AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE ROCKIES AHEAD OF AN
UPPER TROUGH REACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...ALL WHILE HURRICANE
JIMENA MOVES ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA /REFERENCE LATEST NHC
GUIDANCE/.

...PLAINS...
AFOREMENTIONED MIGRATORY UPPER LOW CROSSING THE MIDDLE MO RIVER
VALLEY WILL BE THE MAIN IMPETUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT /SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE/ ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN SD AND CENTRAL/EASTERN NEB.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MODEST THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT THE COMBINATION OF 50S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND
RELATIVELY COOL THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT/STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD
SUPPORT A LARGELY DIURNAL RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS IN
VICINITY OF A NORTH-SOUTH SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS. WITH PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 1000-1500 J/KG OF
MLCAPE BY MID AFTERNOON...LOWER TROPOSPHERIC VEERING BENEATH A BELT
OF 40 KT WNW MID LEVEL FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
LOW WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY MULTICELLS/PERHAPS A FEW SUPERCELLS INTO
EARLY EVENING...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
THEREAFTER AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS.

REMOVED FROM THE UPPER LOW/SPEED MAX...THE CONTINUED EASTWARD
ADVECTION OF A STOUT ELEVATED MIXED LAYER /AND MODEST MOISTURE/ WILL
LIKELY CAP AREAS SOUTH OF THE NEB/KS BORDER OR I-70 VICINITY...ASIDE
FROM DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. ACCORDINGLY...TSTMS SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CO/FAR NORTHEAST NM BY LATE AFTERNOON VIA DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOIST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE...WITH
SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AND SOUTHWEST KS
WITHIN A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. SEVERE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...BUT PROXIMITY OF THE ROCKIES UPPER RIDGE AND WEAK LOW/MID
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW SHOULD PRECLUDE AN ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK.

...SOUTHERN AZ...
WITH SCATTERED LATE NIGHT TSTMS AND DERIVED GPS PW DATA INDICATIVE
OF AROUND 2 INCH VALUES ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO...MOISTURE SEEMS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO SOUTHERN AZ THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS JIMENA PROGRESSES GENERALLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE BAJA PENINSULA.
SUBSIDENCE/SLIGHTLY WARMING MID LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES MAY CURB THE
EXTENT OF DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND STEERING FLOW OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK. NONETHELESS...THE POTENTIAL
FOR AN INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTHERN
/ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST/ AZ WARRANTS MODEST PROBABILITIES FOR STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS/BLOWING DUST.

..GUYER/GARNER.. 09/02/2009

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 020538
SWODY2
SPC AC 020535

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 AM CDT WED SEP 02 2009

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MUCH OF THE NATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE
STRONGER MID/UPPER WESTERLIES THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE...LIKELY TO BE IMPACTING PARTS OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY THURSDAY...IS PROGGED TO RAPIDLY LIFT TO THE
LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...AS THE UPSTREAM PATTERN AMPLIFIES
ACROSS THE MID LATITUDE PACIFIC. OTHERWISE...MODELS INDICATE THAT
GENERALLY WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES INTO EARLY FRIDAY... WHILE A WEAK
CYCLONIC REGIME LINGERS EAST OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD.

HIGHEST MOISTURE CONTENT AIR WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS EAST OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS...GENERALLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...
WHERE HIGHEST THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES WILL EXIST ONCE AGAIN FOR
THIS PERIOD. BUT...MOISTURE ADVECTION NOW UNDERWAY ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS STATES...AND LARGELY EVAPOTRANSPIRATIVELY DRIVEN MOISTENING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WILL PROBABLY ALSO SUPPORT CONSIDERABLE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

...SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...
A BAND OF MODEST NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW--AROUND 25-35 KT AT
500 MB--APPEARS LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION...ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A DIGGING REMNANT MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION/SHORT WAVE
TROUGH. DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH THIS FEATURE MAY ENHANCE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...PERHAPS SUFFICIENTLY FOR AN ISOLATED
SUPERCELL OR TWO WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS ABLE TO DESTABILIZE
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. IN THE WAKE OF EARLY DAY CONVECTION EXPECTED
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHERN
TEXAS...GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE NCEP SREF...INDICATES THAT
STRONGEST INSTABILITY--CHARACTERIZED BY MIXED LAYER CAPE OF
1000-2000+ J/KG--IS MOST LIKELY TO FORM ON THE NOSE OF A WARM
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. IF THIS
OCCURS...HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS COULD ACCOMPANY THE
MOST VIGOROUS STORMS UNTIL BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION WEAKENS
CONVECTION DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

..KERR.. 09/02/2009

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