SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021157
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-021400-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1986
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0657 AM CDT WED SEP 02 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...FAR NE OK AND FAR SW MO
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL
VALID 021157Z - 021400Z
A HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ERN KS AND MAY AFFECT PARTS
OF FAR NE OK AND FAR SW MO THIS MORNING. RAINFALL RATES AROUND 2
INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME SPOTS ESPECIALLY WHERE
ECHOES TRAIN OVER THE SAME LOCATION FOR LONGER PERIODS OF TIME.
A STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME PARTLY ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE
OVER ECNTRL KS IS CURRENTLY SET UP ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPANDING IN COVERAGE IN ERN KS. THE STORMS
ARE LOCATED ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD HELP SUSTAIN THE STORMS THROUGH
THE MID-MORNING. GPS PW DATA SHOWS A POCKET OF INCREASED MOISTURE
ACROSS ERN KS WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE OBSERVED AROUND
1.6 INCHES. MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 800 TO 1200 J/KG RANGE ESTIMATED BY
THE RUC AND LIFT WITH THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL CREATE
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. A
FEW AREAS IN SE KS NEAR THE MO STATE-LINE MAY RECEIVE 2 INCHES PER
HOUR RAINFALL RATES. MODEL FORECASTS ARE CONSISTENT IN WEAKENING THE
BAND OF STORMS BY THE 15Z TO 18Z TIMEFRAME.
..BROYLES/SMITH.. 09/02/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 38429501 38779536 38779565 38549583 37859570 37069544
36529523 36389486 36449449 36659430 37099433 37669457
38089481 38429501
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