Saturday, November 30, 2013

KPIH [010413]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 010413
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
913 PM MST SAT NOV 30 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0830 PM SNOW DRIGGS 43.73N 111.11W
11/30/2013 E2.0 INCH TETON ID TRAINED SPOTTER

MODERATE SNOW FALLING IN THE TETON VALLEY


&&

$$

VPRESTON

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 010014
SWODY1
SPC AC 010011

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0611 PM CST SAT NOV 30 2013

VALID 010100Z - 011200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..DARROW.. 12/01/2013

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 301906
SWODY1
SPC AC 301904

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0104 PM CST SAT NOV 30 2013

VALID 302000Z - 011200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

CONVECTION AFFECTING CNTRL AND ERN FL REMAINS SHALLOW AND VOID OF
LIGHTNING WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND MINUSCULE INSTABILITY.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE NO THUNDER OUTLOOK.

..JEWELL.. 11/30/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 AM CST SAT NOV 30 2013/

...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
ZONAL FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN PREVAIL ACROSS THE LWR 48 THIS
PERIOD...DOWNSTREAM FROM WEAK SPLIT OVER THE LWR CO VLY. A BROAD
REGION OF WEAK WAA/MOISTURE RETURN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CNTRL
STATES...ATOP LINGERING CP AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH E CST SFC RIDGE.
DEGREE OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY AND UPLIFT WILL...HOWEVER...REMAIN TOO
WEAK FOR THUNDER. ELSEWHERE...TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-AMPLITUDE
SYSTEM E OF THE BAHAMAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL E OF THE FL
PENINSULA...AND LITTLE IF ANY THUNDER IS EXPECTED WITH ELONGATING
TROUGH OFF THE SRN CA CST.

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KMSO [301744]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KMSO 301744
LSRMSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1044 AM MST SAT NOV 30 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1043 AM FREEZING RAIN 4 S CHARLO 47.38N 114.16W
11/30/2013 E0.00 INCH LAKE MT TRAINED SPOTTER

SIDEWALKS ARE SLICK FROM THE LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN. TEMPERATURE IS 31 DEGREES.



&&

$$

NWS MISSOULA MT
IRIS SYSTEM

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 301646
SWODY2
SPC AC 301644

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1044 AM CST SAT NOV 30 2013

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND/OR DRY AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS ON SUNDAY
WITH NWLY FLOW ALOFT EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDING EWD INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN AS WELL AS OVER
THE ERN STATES...ALTHOUGH THIS HIGH WILL WEAKEN AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES.

...ARKLATEX INTO LOWER MS VALLEY LATE...
THE EXCEPTION TO THE DRY WEATHER WILL BE SUNDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. INCREASING LIFT AND MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SW
WILL RESULT IN WEAK DESTABILIZATION...PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKES WITHIN AN EXPANDING REGION OF PRECIPITATION.
DESPITE STRONG WIND FIELDS...SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY.

..JEWELL.. 11/30/2013

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KMSO [301633]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KMSO 301633
LSRMSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
932 AM MST SAT NOV 30 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0633 AM FREEZING RAIN 4 NW EAST PORTAL 47.44N 115.69W
11/30/2013 U0.00 INCH MINERAL MT DEPT OF HIGHWAY

MTDOT REPORTED FREEZING RAIN AT LOOKOUT PASS
ON I-90 EARLY THIS MORNING. FREEZING RAIN
DURATION 6 HOURS



&&

$$

NWS MISSOULA MT
IRIS SYSTEM

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 301609
SWODY1
SPC AC 301607

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1007 AM CST SAT NOV 30 2013

VALID 301630Z - 011200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
ZONAL FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN PREVAIL ACROSS THE LWR 48 THIS
PERIOD...DOWNSTREAM FROM WEAK SPLIT OVER THE LWR CO VLY. A BROAD
REGION OF WEAK WAA/MOISTURE RETURN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CNTRL
STATES...ATOP LINGERING CP AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH E CST SFC RIDGE.
DEGREE OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY AND UPLIFT WILL...HOWEVER...REMAIN TOO
WEAK FOR THUNDER. ELSEWHERE...TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-AMPLITUDE
SYSTEM E OF THE BAHAMAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL E OF THE FL
PENINSULA...AND LITTLE IF ANY THUNDER IS EXPECTED WITH ELONGATING
TROUGH OFF THE SRN CA CST.

..CORFIDI/BUNTING.. 11/30/2013

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KMSO [301609]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KMSO 301609
LSRMSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
908 AM MST SAT NOV 30 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0830 PM FREEZING RAIN 1 S CONDON 47.51N 113.71W
11/29/2013 E0.13 INCH MISSOULA MT TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORTED THAT THERE WAS FREEZING
RAIN FROM 530 TO 830 PM MST ON FRIDAY NOV
29TH. IT IS CURRENTLY RAINING LIGHTLY IN
CONDON AT 9 AM NOV 30TH WITH AIR TEMPERATURE
OF 33 DEGREES BUT ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. FREEZING RAIN
DURATION 3 HOURS OBSERVER LOCATION 1.5 MI S
OF CONDON



&&

$$

NWS MISSOULA MT
IRIS SYSTEM

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 301223
SWODY1
SPC AC 301221

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0621 AM CST SAT NOV 30 2013

VALID 301300Z - 011200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
A QUASI-ZONAL LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CONUS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH A DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION OCCURRING OVER ONTARIO AND
THE GREAT LAKES REGION VIA A SOUTHEASTWARD-DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
A NIL TSTM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CONUS GIVEN THE
WIDESPREAD PREVALENCE OF COLD/DRY CONTINENTAL TRAJECTORIES AND
STABLE CONDITIONS. WHILE SOME SHOWERS MAY OCCUR NEAR EAST COASTAL
PORTIONS OF FL/GA TODAY...BROAD SUBSIDENCE AND AN ASSOCIATED
MID-LEVEL INVERSION WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY TSTM POTENTIAL WELL
OFFSHORE IN THE ATLANTIC.

..GUYER/GARNER.. 11/30/2013

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 300928
SWOD48
SPC AC 300928

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0328 AM CST SAT NOV 30 2013

VALID 031200Z - 081200Z

...DISCUSSION...
WITH A MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS RELEGATED TO THE
CARIBBEAN...NEGLIGIBLE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE INTO MID-WEEK.
BY D6-7...AIR MASS MODIFICATION WILL HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS THE WRN
GULF WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE WRN CONUS. POLEWARD
MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD YIELD WEAK BUOYANCY DEVELOPING FROM THE
WRN GULF COAST TOWARDS PERHAPS AS FAR N AS THE OH VALLEY AHEAD OF A
RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH POOR RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY
EXISTS WITH THE SUBSEQUENT EVOLUTION OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
IMPULSES EJECTING WITHIN THE TROUGH...THE POSITIVE-TILT PATTERN AND
RATHER COLD AIR MASS BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT WILL PROBABLY YIELD
CYCLOGENESIS DIVORCED FROM THE RICHER WARM SECTOR. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN GENERALLY ANAFRONTAL CHARACTER WITH DEEP-LAYER FLOW
PARALLELING THE FRONT. THE AFOREMENTIONED LIMITING FACTORS AND LOW
PREDICTABILITY PRECLUDE ANY CONSIDERATION OF AN ENHANCED SEVERE
WEATHER AREA ATTM.

..GRAMS.. 11/30/2013

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 300717
SWODY2
SPC AC 300715

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0115 AM CST SAT NOV 30 2013

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

CORRECTED FOR WEB GRAPHIC

...DISCUSSION...
DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS FOR TSTMS WILL PRECLUDE APPRECIABLE
PROBABILITIES OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE LONE
EXCEPTION SHOULD BE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY SUN NIGHT. AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH RAPIDLY PROGRESSES E/SEWD FROM THE CNTRL/SRN
ROCKIES...MODEST STRENGTHENING OF LOW-LEVEL W/SWLYS SHOULD YIELD
MODIFICATION OF A CP AIR MASS. THE NAM APPEARS RATHER AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN AND MORE UNSTABLE GIVEN ITS
DEPICTION OF SATURATED LAYERS BETWEEN 925-800 MB WITH LAPSE RATES
NEAR 10 DEG C/KM. HOWEVER...SCANT ELEVATED BUOYANCY MAY DEVELOP AND
COULD RESULT IN SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES AMIDST SCATTERED SHOWERS
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.

..GRAMS.. 11/30/2013

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 300626
SWODY2
SPC AC 300625

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 AM CST SAT NOV 30 2013

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...DISCUSSION...
DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS FOR TSTMS WILL PRECLUDE APPRECIABLE
PROBABILITIES OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE LONE
EXCEPTION SHOULD BE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY SUN NIGHT. AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH RAPIDLY PROGRESSES E/SEWD FROM THE CNTRL/SRN
ROCKIES...MODEST STRENGTHENING OF LOW-LEVEL W/SWLYS SHOULD YIELD
MODIFICATION OF A CP AIR MASS. THE NAM APPEARS RATHER AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN AND MORE UNSTABLE GIVEN ITS
DEPICTION OF SATURATED LAYERS BETWEEN 925-800 MB WITH LAPSE RATES
NEAR 10 DEG C/KM. HOWEVER...SCANT ELEVATED BUOYANCY MAY DEVELOP AND
COULD RESULT IN SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES AMIDST SCATTERED SHOWERS
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.

..GRAMS.. 11/30/2013

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 300516
SWODY1
SPC AC 300514

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1114 PM CST FRI NOV 29 2013

VALID 301200Z - 011200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..DARROW.. 11/30/2013

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