DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 300928
SWOD48
SPC AC 300928

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0328 AM CST SAT NOV 30 2013

VALID 031200Z - 081200Z

...DISCUSSION...
WITH A MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS RELEGATED TO THE
CARIBBEAN...NEGLIGIBLE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE INTO MID-WEEK.
BY D6-7...AIR MASS MODIFICATION WILL HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS THE WRN
GULF WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE WRN CONUS. POLEWARD
MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD YIELD WEAK BUOYANCY DEVELOPING FROM THE
WRN GULF COAST TOWARDS PERHAPS AS FAR N AS THE OH VALLEY AHEAD OF A
RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH POOR RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY
EXISTS WITH THE SUBSEQUENT EVOLUTION OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
IMPULSES EJECTING WITHIN THE TROUGH...THE POSITIVE-TILT PATTERN AND
RATHER COLD AIR MASS BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT WILL PROBABLY YIELD
CYCLOGENESIS DIVORCED FROM THE RICHER WARM SECTOR. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN GENERALLY ANAFRONTAL CHARACTER WITH DEEP-LAYER FLOW
PARALLELING THE FRONT. THE AFOREMENTIONED LIMITING FACTORS AND LOW
PREDICTABILITY PRECLUDE ANY CONSIDERATION OF AN ENHANCED SEVERE
WEATHER AREA ATTM.

..GRAMS.. 11/30/2013

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