Tuesday, September 20, 2011

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2197

ACUS11 KWNS 202045
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202045
WIZ000-MIZ000-MNZ000-202245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2197
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0345 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN MN/WESTERN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 202045Z - 202245Z

AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT...IN THE FORM OF WIND/HAIL AND/OR A BRIEF
TORNADO...MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST
MN/WESTERN WI.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REFLECTS A NEARLY STACKED CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR
THE ND/MN BORDER AT MID-AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATIVE
OF AN ARCING CONFLUENCE ZONE ACROSS NORTHERN MN SOUTHWARD TO
NEAR/WEST OF THE MS RIVER. THE PREVALENCE OF CLOUD COVER AND A
RELATIVELY COOL/MODESTLY MOIST AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE
OVERALL EXTENT/LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE POTENTIAL. THAT SAID...POCKETS
OF MODEST CLEARING ARE OCCURRING /SUCH AS CURRENTLY NOTED ACROSS
NORTHEAST MN/ ALONG THE EAST-NORTHEAST ADVANCING SURFACE
BOUNDARY...AND SOME ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL HEATING IN THE PRESENCE OF
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR
SUSTAINED/LIGHTNING-PRODUCING UPDRAFTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. IN THE PRESENCE OF AMPLE AMBIENT VERTICAL
VORTICITY/RELATIVELY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR/SRH AS OBSERVED PER
REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS...A BRIEF TORNADO AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS
COULD OCCUR ASIDE FROM SMALL HAIL. ANY SUCH SEVERE THREAT IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL/LOCALIZED IN NATURE...BUT
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..GUYER.. 09/20/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON 47389392 48269386 47539140 46548994 44468969 44009183
45369209 46429257 47389392

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KUNR [202043]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KUNR 202043
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
243 PM MDT TUE SEP 20 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0708 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 NW ROCKYPOINT 44.99N 105.20W
09/19/2011 M53.00 MPH CAMPBELL WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0751 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NE ECHETA 44.47N 105.83W
09/19/2011 M72.00 MPH CAMPBELL WY MESONET

ECHETA RAWS

0759 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 N BUFFALO 45.60N 103.55W
09/19/2011 M56.00 MPH HARDING SD ASOS

BUFFALO ASOS

0815 PM NON-TSTM WND GST PINE HAVEN 44.35N 104.81W
09/19/2011 M52.00 MPH CROOK WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0941 PM HIGH SUST WINDS RAPID CITY AIRPORT 44.04N 103.06W
09/19/2011 M43.00 MPH PENNINGTON SD ASOS

RAPID CITY AIRPORT ASOS

0955 PM HIGH SUST WINDS 7 E DOWNTOWN STURGIS 44.41N 103.37W
09/19/2011 M40.00 MPH MEADE SD AWOS

STURGIS AIRPORT AWOS

1004 PM NON-TSTM WND GST ELLSWORTH AFB 44.15N 103.10W
09/19/2011 M58.00 MPH MEADE SD ASOS

1004 PM NON-TSTM WND GST ELLSWORTH AFB 44.15N 103.10W
09/19/2011 M58.00 MPH MEADE SD ASOS

1006 PM NON-TSTM WND GST ELLSWORTH AFB 44.15N 103.10W
09/19/2011 M58.00 MPH MEADE SD ASOS

1006 PM HIGH SUST WINDS ELLSWORTH AFB 44.15N 103.10W
09/19/2011 M40.00 MPH MEADE SD ASOS

1007 PM HIGH SUST WINDS DOWNTOWN RAPID CITY 44.08N 103.23W
09/19/2011 M41.00 MPH PENNINGTON SD OFFICIAL NWS OBS

NWS RAPID CITY OFFICE

1018 PM NON-TSTM WND GST RAPID CITY AIRPORT 44.04N 103.06W
09/19/2011 M60.00 MPH PENNINGTON SD ASOS

1041 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 ENE FAITH 45.02N 102.01W
09/19/2011 M54.00 MPH MEADE SD ASOS

FAITH AIRPORT ASOS

1045 PM HIGH SUST WINDS UNION CENTER 44.56N 102.67W
09/19/2011 M47.00 MPH MEADE SD MESONET

SDSU MESONET SITE

1100 PM NON-TSTM WND GST RAPID CITY AIRPORT 44.04N 103.06W
09/19/2011 M60.00 MPH PENNINGTON SD ASOS

1120 PM HIGH SUST WINDS 8 S WALL 43.88N 102.24W
09/19/2011 M43.00 MPH PENNINGTON SD MESONET

PINNACLE RAWS

1139 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 E PHILIP 44.05N 101.60W
09/19/2011 M56.00 MPH HAAKON SD ASOS

PHILIP AIRPORT ASOS

1141 PM HIGH SUST WINDS 5 NE PORCUPINE 43.28N 102.26W
09/19/2011 M41.00 MPH SHANNON SD MESONET

PORCUPINE RAWS

1141 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 NE PORCUPINE 43.28N 102.26W
09/19/2011 M62.00 MPH SHANNON SD MESONET

PORCUPINE RAWS

1220 AM HIGH SUST WINDS 1 S DOWNTOWN RAPID CITY 44.06N 103.23W
09/20/2011 M41.00 MPH PENNINGTON SD MESONET

ST THOMAS MORE KELO MESONET

0321 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 N BUFFALO 45.60N 103.55W
09/20/2011 M64.00 MPH HARDING SD ASOS

0815 AM HIGH SUST WINDS FAITH 45.02N 102.03W
09/20/2011 M41.00 MPH MEADE SD AWOS

0830 AM HIGH SUST WINDS 2 W LEMMON 45.94N 102.20W
09/20/2011 M42.00 MPH PERKINS SD DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

1015 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NW CAPUTA 44.01N 103.00W
09/20/2011 M61.00 MPH PENNINGTON SD MESONET

1020 AM HIGH SUST WINDS 14 NW DOWNTOWN BELLE FO 44.81N 104.05W
09/20/2011 M40.00 MPH BUTTE SD DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

1020 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 S WALL 43.88N 102.24W
09/20/2011 M59.00 MPH PENNINGTON SD MESONET

1040 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 10 W JEWEL CAVE 43.72N 104.04W
09/20/2011 M52.00 MPH CUSTER SD TRAINED SPOTTER

45MPH SUSTAINED WINDS

1120 AM HIGH SUST WINDS 6 W PARMELEE 43.32N 101.14W
09/20/2011 M41.00 MPH TODD SD MESONET

1126 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 E PHILIP 44.05N 101.60W
09/20/2011 M58.00 MPH HAAKON SD ASOS

41MPH SUSTAINED WINDS AT 1055 AM

1200 PM HIGH SUST WINDS ELLSWORTH AFB 44.15N 103.10W
09/20/2011 M41.00 MPH MEADE SD ASOS


&&

$$

JBARDALA

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KBMX [202042]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBMX 202042
LSRBMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
342 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 PM FLASH FLOOD 11 NW LOWNDESBORO 32.39N 86.74W
09/20/2011 LOWNDES AL PUBLIC

HENDERSON ROAD COVERED BY WATER IN SEVERAL PLACES AND
IMPASSABLE BY CAR. SEVERAL HOMES ARE LOCATED ALONG THE
ROAD.


&&

$$

REM

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KABR [202035]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KABR 202035
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
334 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1200 PM HIGH SUST WINDS OACOMA 43.80N 99.38W
09/20/2011 M42 MPH LYMAN SD MESONET

SDSU OACOMA SITE - 45MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 52MPH


&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1100106

$$

NWS

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KBIS [202027]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 202027
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
327 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0538 AM HIGH SUST WINDS GRASSY BUTTE 47.39N 103.25W
09/20/2011 M40 MPH MCKENZIE ND DEPT OF HIGHWAYS


&&

$$

NHEINERT

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KUNR [202026]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 202026
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
226 PM MDT TUE SEP 20 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0815 AM HIGH SUST WINDS FAITH 45.02N 102.03W
09/20/2011 M41.00 MPH MEADE SD AWOS

0830 AM HIGH SUST WINDS 2 W LEMMON 45.94N 102.20W
09/20/2011 M42.00 MPH PERKINS SD DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

1015 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NW CAPUTA 44.01N 103.00W
09/20/2011 M61.00 MPH PENNINGTON SD MESONET

1020 AM HIGH SUST WINDS 14 NW DOWNTOWN BELLE FO 44.81N 104.05W
09/20/2011 M40.00 MPH BUTTE SD DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

1020 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 S WALL 43.88N 102.24W
09/20/2011 M59.00 MPH PENNINGTON SD MESONET

1040 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 10 W JEWEL CAVE 43.72N 104.04W
09/20/2011 M52.00 MPH CUSTER SD TRAINED SPOTTER

45MPH SUSTAINED WINDS

1120 AM HIGH SUST WINDS 6 W PARMELEE 43.32N 101.14W
09/20/2011 M41.00 MPH TODD SD MESONET

1126 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 E PHILIP 44.05N 101.60W
09/20/2011 M58.00 MPH HAAKON SD ASOS

41MPH SUSTAINED WINDS AT 1055 AM

1200 PM HIGH SUST WINDS ELLSWORTH AFB 44.15N 103.10W
09/20/2011 M41.00 MPH MEADE SD ASOS

1018 PM NON-TSTM WND GST RAPID CITY AIRPORT 44.04N 103.06W
09/19/2011 M60 MPH PENNINGTON SD ASOS

1004 PM NON-TSTM WND GST ELLSWORTH AFB 44.15N 103.10W
09/19/2011 M58 MPH MEADE SD ASOS

1004 PM NON-TSTM WND GST ELLSWORTH AFB 44.15N 103.10W
09/19/2011 M58 MPH MEADE SD ASOS


&&

$$

JBARDALA

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KBIS [202025]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 202025
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
325 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0655 AM HIGH SUST WINDS DICKINSON 46.88N 102.79W
09/20/2011 M40 MPH STARK ND MESONET


&&

$$

NHEINERT

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KABR [202024]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KABR 202024
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
324 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0855 AM HIGH SUST WINDS EAGLE BUTTE 45.00N 101.24W
09/20/2011 M46 MPH DEWEY SD MESONET


&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1100105

$$

NWS

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KBIS [202023]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 202023
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
323 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0105 PM HIGH SUST WINDS WISHEK 46.26N 99.56W
09/20/2011 M42 MPH MCINTOSH ND DEPT OF HIGHWAYS


&&

$$

NHEINERT

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KBIS [202023]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 202023
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
323 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0538 AM HIGH SUST WINDS DENHOFF 47.48N 100.26W
09/20/2011 M42 MPH SHERIDAN ND DEPT OF HIGHWAYS


&&

$$

NHEINERT

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KBIS [202022]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 202022
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
322 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0456 AM HIGH SUST WINDS CROSBY 48.91N 103.29W
09/20/2011 M42 MPH DIVIDE ND MESONET


&&

$$

NHEINERT

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KABR [202022]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KABR 202022
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
322 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 PM HIGH SUST WINDS 1 E HARROLD 44.52N 99.72W
09/20/2011 M41 MPH HUGHES SD MESONET

SUSTAINED 41 MPH GUST TO 50 MPH


&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1100104

$$

NWS

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KBIS [202021]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 202021
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
321 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0456 AM NON-TSTM WND GST CROSBY 48.91N 103.29W
09/20/2011 M58 MPH DIVIDE ND MESONET


&&

$$

NHEINERT

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KBIS [202021]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 202021
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
321 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0831 AM HIGH SUST WINDS HETTINGER 46.00N 102.64W
09/20/2011 M45 MPH ADAMS ND ASOS


&&

$$

NHEINERT

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KBIS [202020]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 202020
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
320 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0831 AM NON-TSTM WND GST HETTINGER 46.00N 102.64W
09/20/2011 M62 MPH ADAMS ND ASOS


&&

$$

NHEINERT

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KABR [202019]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KABR 202019
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
319 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0810 AM HIGH SUST WINDS TIMBER LAKE 45.43N 101.07W
09/20/2011 M51 MPH DEWEY SD MESONET


&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1100103

$$

NWS

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KBIS [202019]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 202019
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
319 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0812 PM HIGH SUST WINDS FRYBURG 46.87N 103.30W
09/19/2011 M40 MPH BILLINGS ND DEPT OF HIGHWAYS


&&

$$

NHEINERT

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KFGF [202018]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 202018
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
318 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0312 PM FUNNEL CLOUD E GRAND FORKS 47.92N 97.07W
09/20/2011 GRAND FORKS ND TRAINED SPOTTER

THIS FUNNEL IS A COLD CORE FUNNEL.


&&

$$

GROCHOCINSKI

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KABR [202015]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KABR 202015
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
315 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0830 AM HIGH SUST WINDS MCINTOSH 45.92N 101.35W
09/20/2011 M42 MPH CORSON SD MESONET


&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1100102

$$

NWS

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KABR [202011]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KABR 202011
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
310 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1159 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 N VIVIAN 44.12N 100.29W
09/20/2011 M62 MPH LYMAN SD MESONET


&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1100101

$$

NWS

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KABR [202009]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KABR 202009
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
309 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1140 AM HIGH SUST WINDS 9 S FORT PIERRE 44.23N 100.37W
09/20/2011 M46 MPH STANLEY SD MESONET

SUSTAINED 46 MPH GUST TO 57 MPH


&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1100100

$$

NWS

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KUNR [202005]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KUNR 202005
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
204 PM MDT TUE SEP 20 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0321 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 N BUFFALO 45.60N 103.55W
09/20/2011 M64.00 MPH HARDING SD ASOS


&&

$$

JBARDALA

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KABR [202002]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KABR 202002
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
302 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0159 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 N VIVIAN 44.12N 100.29W
09/20/2011 M58 MPH LYMAN SD MESONET


&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1100099

$$

NWS

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 202001
SWODY1
SPC AC 202000

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2011

VALID 202000Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...WI/UPR MI...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED HEATING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS MN...WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE BELOW 250 J/KG.
STRONG WIND FIELDS ARE IN PLACE ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR
SOME CONCERN FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...WEAK BUOYANCY
AND LIMITED MOISTURE SUGGEST THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS RATHER
LOW.

...AL/GA/FL...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AL/GA. THIS IS OCCURRING IN VICINITY OF A
WEAK/DIFFUSE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FAR SOUTHERN AL INTO
NORTHEAST FL. WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND MODERATE INSTABILITY
NEAR THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO AID SCATTERED STORMS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE QUITE WEAK
SUGGESTING STORM ORGANIZATION WILL BE QUITE LIMITED.
NEVERTHELESS...GUSTY WINDS OR EVEN A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT IN THIS REGION TODAY.

..HART.. 09/20/2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT TUE SEP 20 2011/

...SYNOPSIS...
POTENT UPR LOW NOW OVER ERN ND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE E INTO WRN LK
SUPERIOR BY 12Z WED AS UPSTREAM SPEED MAX NOW OVER SK DROPS S INTO
WRN SD. ELSEWHERE...LINGERING POSITIVE TILT TROUGH/VORT AXIS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QSTNRY OVER MS/AL AND THE SRN APPALACHIANS.

SFC LOW WITH ND SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY OCCLUDED AS COLD
FRONT MOVES E INTO WI LATER TODAY...AND REACHES LK MI EARLY WED.

...UPR GRT LKS/UPR MS VLY TODAY/TNGT...
LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED IN WARM SECTOR OF UPR MS VLY
SFC LOW...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 40S TO LOW 50S F. A PLUME OF
STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES...HOWEVER...WILL SWEEP NEWD AHEAD OF FRONT
ACROSS ERN MN AND WI...WHERE MEAGER LOW LVL MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT
DEVELOPMENT OF BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING-TYPE CLOUDS AND ALLOW SFC TEMPS
TO RISE WELL INTO THE 60S. THUS...DAYTIME HEATING AND FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE MAY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF AN ARC OF WDLY SCTD
LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF 50+ KT DEEP WSWLY
SHEAR.

WITH SHEAR NEARLY PERPENDICULAR TO COLD FRONT...AND SCTD NATURE OF
UPDRAFTS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLD SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
LOCALLY DMGG WIND FROM NRN AND FAR ERN MN INTO WRN/NRN WI. A
CONDITIONAL THREAT ALSO WILL EXIST FOR A TORNADO OR TWO...ESPECIALLY
IN NW WI AND ADJACENT PARTS OF MN...WHERE OVERLAP OF GREATEST LOW
LVL SRH WITH SBCAPE SHOULD EXIST NEAR SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED TRIPLE
POINT. HOWEVER...WEAK BUOYANCY /SBCAPE AOB 500 J PER KG/...SHOULD
LIMIT OVERALL STORM COVERAGE/SVR THREAT. IN ADDITION...CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT SWD INTO SRN MN AND IA THROUGH THE DAY MAY BE STYMIED BY
MID LVL SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ON EQUATOR WARD SIDE OF JET STREAK
ROUNDING BASE OF ND UPR LOW. HOWEVER...DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR SWD
INTO IA AND IL TNGT AS UPSTREAM IMPULSE BEGINS TO AFFECT REGION.
NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...ANY SVR
THREAT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY ISOLD AFTER SUNSET.

...ERN GULF CSTL REGION THIS AFTN/EVE...
INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW LVL ELY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN GULF
CST STATES TODAY...ON SW FRINGE OF WEDGE-TYPE AIR MASS OVER THE
CAROLINAS/N GA. WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
AFOREMENTIONED UPR IMPULSE AND SFC HEATING MAY SUPPORT AN INCREASE
IN STORMS/SHOWERS FROM CNTRL AL SE INTO SRN GA/N FL.
BUOYANCY AND DEEP SHEAR WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK. BUT MOISTURE-RICH
LOW LVL ENVIRONMENT WITH ESELY NEAR SFC WINDS MAY ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT
A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR BRIEF TORNADOES/WATERSPOUTS...AND PERHAPS A
STORM OR TWO WITH LOCALLY DMGG WIND...THIS AFTN/EVE.

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KABR [201956]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KABR 201956
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
256 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1055 AM HIGH SUST WINDS 1 S GETTYSBURG 44.99N 99.95W
09/20/2011 M40 MPH POTTER SD AWOS

SUSTAINED 40 MPH GUST TO 51 MPH


&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1100098

$$

NWS

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KABR [201945]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KABR 201945
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
245 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1241 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 E DANFORTH 44.25N 98.76W
09/20/2011 M58 MPH HAND SD MESONET


&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1100097

$$

NWS

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KABR [201936]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KABR 201936
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
236 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0234 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 E HAYES 44.37N 100.90W
09/20/2011 M69 MPH STANLEY SD CO-OP OBSERVER


&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1100096

$$

NWS

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KBMX [201924]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBMX 201924
LSRBMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
223 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0202 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 NNW REMLAP 33.85N 86.62W
09/20/2011 BLOUNT AL EMERGENCY MNGR

WATER OVER ROADWAY ON HOUSE ROAD NEAR REMLAP.

0202 PM FLASH FLOOD LOCUST FORK 33.91N 86.62W
09/20/2011 BLOUNT AL EMERGENCY MNGR

WATER OVER ROADWAY ALONG SPUNKY HOLLOW ROAD IN LOCUST
FORK.

0210 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 NE REMLAP 33.86N 86.59W
09/20/2011 BLOUNT AL EMERGENCY MNGR

FLASH FLOODING ON REMLAP DRIVE BETWEEN VALLEY GROVE ROAD
AND STATE HIGHWAY 75 SOUTH.


&&

$$

AG

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KABR [201921]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KABR 201921
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
221 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 AM NON-TSTM WND GST TOLSTOY 45.21N 99.61W
09/20/2011 M59 MPH POTTER SD MESONET


&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1100095

$$

CONNELLY

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KBMX [201919]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBMX 201919
LSRBMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
219 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 SW REMLAP 33.83N 86.62W
09/20/2011 BLOUNT AL EMERGENCY MNGR

WATER FLOWING OUT OF SMALL CREEK AND BEGINNING TO FLOW
ONTO STATE HIGHWAY 75 AT SOUTHEASTERN ELEMENTARY SCHOOL
IN REMLAP.


&&

$$

REM

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KBMX [201908]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBMX 201908
LSRBMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
208 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0155 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 SSW ALLGOOD 33.91N 86.51W
09/20/2011 BLOUNT AL EMERGENCY MNGR

WATER FLOWING ACROSS 270 TIDWELL HOLLOW ROAD. ROAD IS
IMPASSABLE.


&&

$$

REM

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KABR [201741]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KABR 201741
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1240 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1140 AM NON-TSTM WND GST ONIDA 44.70N 100.07W
09/20/2011 M65 MPH SULLY SD MESONET

REPORT FROM ONIDA AIRPORT


&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1100094

$$

CONNELLY

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2196

ACUS11 KWNS 201727
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201726
GAZ000-FLZ000-201830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2196
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 201726Z - 201830Z

CLUSTERS OF STORMS LIFTING NWD ACROSS SERN GA MAY ACQUIRE BRIEF
UPDRAFT ROTATION AND POSE A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SHORT-LIVED
TORNADOES. HOWEVER...THE SVR WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO
LOW TO WARRANT A WW.

AT 17Z...COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY SHOWED A CLUSTER OF STORMS LIFTING
NWD OVER SERN GA...WITH MORE DISCRETE ACTIVITY TRAILING SWD INTO FAR
NRN FL. STORMS OVER GA ARE MOVING ACROSS AN E-W ORIENTED LOW-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE...WITH WINDS S OF THE BOUNDARY OVER NRN FL
SELY...BACKING TO E-NELY OVER THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY IN ERN
GA. STRONGLY VEERING VERTICAL WIND PROFILES MAY AID IN BRIEF UPDRAFT
ROTATION/SHORT-LIVED TORNADO THREAT AS VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
CONTINUES TO HEAT UP DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE SVR WEATHER
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY MARGINAL...PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR A
WW.

..GARNER.. 09/20/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON 31988309 32058189 31588107 30488151 30578335 31988309

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KABR [201710]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KABR 201710
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1210 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1151 AM NON-TSTM WND GST PIERRE 44.37N 100.32W
09/20/2011 M66 MPH HUGHES SD ASOS


&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1100093

$$

CONNELLY

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KJAN [201703]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 201703
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1203 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 PM FLASH FLOOD HEIDELBERG 31.89N 88.99W
09/19/2011 JASPER MS EMERGENCY MNGR

THREE HOMES HAD FLOODED IN TOWN AND SEVERAL ROADS HAD
WASHED OUT AROUND TOWN.


&&

$$

17

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 201636
SWODY2
SPC AC 201636

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1136 AM CDT TUE SEP 20 2011

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...GREAT LAKES REGION...
A RATHER LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BE PRESENT ON WEDNESDAY OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF IND/LOWER
MI/OH DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP TO INITIATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE UPPER OH
VALLEY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
HEATING WILL LIKELY YIELD MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1500 J/KG. PRESENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT A NARROW REGION OF THREAT WILL DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON FOR THOSE STORMS THAT FORM ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER MI AND NORTHERN OH.
LOW/MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL BE VEERED...BUT SUFFICIENTLY STRONG
TO SUPPORT A RISK OF GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NATION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN STATES AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH
PLAINS. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS.

..HART.. 09/20/2011

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 201630
SWODY1
SPC AC 201629

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CDT TUE SEP 20 2011

VALID 201630Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
POTENT UPR LOW NOW OVER ERN ND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE E INTO WRN LK
SUPERIOR BY 12Z WED AS UPSTREAM SPEED MAX NOW OVER SK DROPS S INTO
WRN SD. ELSEWHERE...LINGERING POSITIVE TILT TROUGH/VORT AXIS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QSTNRY OVER MS/AL AND THE SRN APPALACHIANS.

SFC LOW WITH ND SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY OCCLUDED AS COLD
FRONT MOVES E INTO WI LATER TODAY...AND REACHES LK MI EARLY WED.

...UPR GRT LKS/UPR MS VLY TODAY/TNGT...
LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED IN WARM SECTOR OF UPR MS VLY
SFC LOW...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 40S TO LOW 50S F. A PLUME OF
STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES...HOWEVER...WILL SWEEP NEWD AHEAD OF FRONT
ACROSS ERN MN AND WI...WHERE MEAGER LOW LVL MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT
DEVELOPMENT OF BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING-TYPE CLOUDS AND ALLOW SFC TEMPS
TO RISE WELL INTO THE 60S. THUS...DAYTIME HEATING AND FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE MAY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF AN ARC OF WDLY SCTD
LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF 50+ KT DEEP WSWLY
SHEAR.

WITH SHEAR NEARLY PERPENDICULAR TO COLD FRONT...AND SCTD NATURE OF
UPDRAFTS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLD SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
LOCALLY DMGG WIND FROM NRN AND FAR ERN MN INTO WRN/NRN WI. A
CONDITIONAL THREAT ALSO WILL EXIST FOR A TORNADO OR TWO...ESPECIALLY
IN NW WI AND ADJACENT PARTS OF MN...WHERE OVERLAP OF GREATEST LOW
LVL SRH WITH SBCAPE SHOULD EXIST NEAR SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED TRIPLE
POINT. HOWEVER...WEAK BUOYANCY /SBCAPE AOB 500 J PER KG/...SHOULD
LIMIT OVERALL STORM COVERAGE/SVR THREAT. IN ADDITION...CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT SWD INTO SRN MN AND IA THROUGH THE DAY MAY BE STYMIED BY
MID LVL SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ON EQUATOR WARD SIDE OF JET STREAK
ROUNDING BASE OF ND UPR LOW. HOWEVER...DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR SWD
INTO IA AND IL TNGT AS UPSTREAM IMPULSE BEGINS TO AFFECT REGION.
NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...ANY SVR
THREAT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY ISOLD AFTER SUNSET.

...ERN GULF CSTL REGION THIS AFTN/EVE...
INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW LVL ELY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN GULF
CST STATES TODAY...ON SW FRINGE OF WEDGE-TYPE AIR MASS OVER THE
CAROLINAS/N GA. WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
AFOREMENTIONED UPR IMPULSE AND SFC HEATING MAY SUPPORT AN INCREASE
IN STORMS/SHOWERS FROM CNTRL AL SE INTO SRN GA/N FL.
BUOYANCY AND DEEP SHEAR WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK. BUT MOISTURE-RICH
LOW LVL ENVIRONMENT WITH ESELY NEAR SFC WINDS MAY ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT
A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR BRIEF TORNADOES/WATERSPOUTS...AND PERHAPS A
STORM OR TWO WITH LOCALLY DMGG WIND...THIS AFTN/EVE.

..CORFIDI/GARNER.. 09/20/2011

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KABR [201432]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KABR 201432
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
932 AM CDT TUE SEP 20 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0706 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 10 S BULLHEAD 45.62N 101.08W
09/20/2011 M59 MPH CORSON SD MESONET


&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1100092

$$

PARKIN

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 201250
SWODY1
SPC AC 201249

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 AM CDT TUE SEP 20 2011

VALID 201300Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE UPR FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE UPR TROUGH
FROM NY TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST MOVING TO THE ATLC SEABOARD BY
TONIGHT. IMPULSE EMBEDDED ALONG SRN EXTENT OF THE LARGER SCALE
TROUGH WILL TRAVEL FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST REGION TO THE CAROLINAS
TDY WHILE WEAKENING. A WEAK SFC LOW/TRIPLE POINT WILL ADVANCE
INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ERN GULF COAST REGION...PERHAPS AS FAR
N AS SRN GA THIS AFTN.

MEANWHILE...TO THE W...A COMPACT UPR LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE
INTO THE UPR GRTLKS REGION THIS EVENING. SFC CYCLONE WILL MOVE TO
LK SUP WHILE A CDFNT SWEEPS E AND SE INTO THE CNTRL GRTLKS REGION
AND SRN PLAINS BY 12Z WED.

...UPR GRTLKS/UPR MS RVR VLY...
LEADING BANDS OF ASCENT EMANATING FROM THE STRONG PV-MAX OVER THE
DAKOTAS WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION OVER THE
REGION THIS MORNING. GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY.
CONCERN WILL THEN FOCUS ON PSBL DEVELOPMENT OF SFC-BASED STORMS THIS
AFTN...ARCING FROM NRN MN SSEWD INTO THE UPR MS RVR VLY ALONG THE
PRIMARY CDFNT/SFC LOW. LEADING EDGE OF STRONG ASCENT TIED TO THE
UPR LOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR BY EARLY AFTN/ONSET OF
PEAK HEATING. PREFRONTAL AIR MASS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK
THERMAL BUOYANCY/MEAGER LLVL MOISTURE AND MLCAPES SHOULD REMAIN LESS
THAN 500 J/KG. HOWEVER...STEEPENING MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG
DYNAMICS WILL LIKELY FORCE A LINE OF LOW-TOPPED STORMS WITH PSBL
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS GIVEN 50+ KTS OF WLY EFFECTIVE SHEAR. IN
FACT...IF SUFFICIENT 0-3KM CAPE CAN MATERIALIZE NEAR THE TRACK OF
THE SFC LOW...FCST HODOGRAPHS EXHIBIT STRONG 0-1KM SHEAR AND A BRIEF
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER FAR NE MN AND NWRN WI.
OTHERWISE...DMGG WIND GUSTS AND SVR HAIL WILL BE PSBL. ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY BACKBUILD SWWD ALONG THE CDFNT INTO THE UPR MS VLY
OVERNIGHT WITH FAST MOVING CONVECTION SHIFTING DOWNSTREAM INTO THE
CNTRL GRTLKS REGION OVERNIGHT. THE SVR THREATS SHOULD DIMINISH
HOWEVER...OWING TO WANING INSTABILITY.

...ERN GULF COASTAL REGION...
SWRN FRINGE OF A LLVL STABLE WEDGE WILL MODIFY AS THE WRMFNT FROM
CNTRL AL TO THE FL PNHDL RETREATS NEWD AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
WEAK UPR IMPULSE. MAINTENANCE OF MODEST WARM ADVECTION PROFILES
AHEAD OF THE EJECTING SYSTEM WILL ENCOURAGE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
ALONG/N OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY...BUT POCKETS OF WEAK
INSOLATION TO THE SW WILL LOCALLY STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND BOOST
BUOYANCY. RELATIVELY RICH MOIST LLVL AIR MASS AND WEAK ESELY WINDS
BELOW 1-2KM NEAR THE WRMFNT WILL FAVOR A LOW-END POTENTIAL FOR
SFC-BASED STORMS THAT MAY PRODUCE LOCAL DMGG WINDS/ISOLD TORNADO
FROM SERN AL INTO SRN GA AND NRN FL THIS AFTN.

..RACY/COHEN.. 09/20/2011

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KUNR [201148]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 201148
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
548 AM MDT TUE SEP 20 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 N BUFFALO 45.60N 103.55W
09/20/2011 M64 MPH HARDING SD ASOS


&&

$$

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KUNR [200933]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 200933
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
331 AM MDT TUE SEP 20 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0759 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 N BUFFALO 45.60N 103.55W
09/19/2011 M56.00 MPH HARDING SD ASOS

BUFFALO ASOS

0941 PM HIGH SUST WINDS RAPID CITY AIRPORT 44.04N 103.06W
09/19/2011 M43.00 MPH PENNINGTON SD ASOS

RAPID CITY AIRPORT ASOS

0955 PM HIGH SUST WINDS 7 E DOWNTOWN STURGIS 44.41N 103.37W
09/19/2011 M40.00 MPH MEADE SD AWOS

STURGIS AIRPORT AWOS

1006 PM NON-TSTM WND GST ELLSWORTH AFB 44.15N 103.10W
09/19/2011 M58.00 MPH MEADE SD ASOS

1006 PM HIGH SUST WINDS ELLSWORTH AFB 44.15N 103.10W
09/19/2011 M40.00 MPH MEADE SD ASOS

1007 PM HIGH SUST WINDS DOWNTOWN RAPID CITY 44.08N 103.23W
09/19/2011 M41.00 MPH PENNINGTON SD OFFICIAL NWS OBS

NWS RAPID CITY OFFICE

1041 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 ENE FAITH 45.02N 102.01W
09/19/2011 M54.00 MPH MEADE SD ASOS

FAITH AIRPORT ASOS

1045 PM HIGH SUST WINDS UNION CENTER 44.56N 102.67W
09/19/2011 M47.00 MPH MEADE SD MESONET

SDSU MESONET SITE

1100 PM NON-TSTM WND GST RAPID CITY AIRPORT 44.04N 103.06W
09/19/2011 M60.00 MPH PENNINGTON SD ASOS

1120 PM HIGH SUST WINDS 8 S WALL 43.88N 102.24W
09/19/2011 M43.00 MPH PENNINGTON SD MESONET

PINNACLE RAWS

1139 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 E PHILIP 44.05N 101.60W
09/19/2011 M56.00 MPH HAAKON SD ASOS

PHILIP AIRPORT ASOS

1141 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 NE PORCUPINE 43.28N 102.26W
09/19/2011 M62.00 MPH SHANNON SD MESONET

PORCUPINE RAWS

1141 PM HIGH SUST WINDS 5 NE PORCUPINE 43.28N 102.26W
09/19/2011 M41.00 MPH SHANNON SD MESONET

PORCUPINE RAWS

1220 AM HIGH SUST WINDS 1 S DOWNTOWN RAPID CITY 44.06N 103.23W
09/20/2011 M41.00 MPH PENNINGTON SD MESONET

ST THOMAS MORE KELO MESONET


&&

$$

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 200858
SWOD48
SPC AC 200857

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 AM CDT TUE SEP 20 2011

VALID 231200Z - 281200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT THE PRIMARY FEATURE TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE U.S. AT MID LEVELS WILL BE A LARGE TROUGH/LOW INVOF THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST. WITH TIME...THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO
BECOME COMPLETELY CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN BELT OF WLYS SHIFTING NWD
ACROSS CANADA. AS IT BECOMES CUT OFF...THE FEATURE IS PROGGED TO
LINGER IN PLACE -- OR EVEN RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY...AND THUS REMAIN
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST REGION INTO DAY 7 AFTER WHICH IS BEGINS TO
BE PICKED UP BY THE WLYS AND SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND
INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH DAY 8.

DESPITE FAIR AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN TERMS OF THEIR
HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD...WIDESPREAD/SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT IS NOT EVIDENT. MINOR
EPISODES OF STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ON
SEVERAL DAYS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION...BUT DEGREE OF EXPECTED THREAT AND DIFFICULTY
HIGHLIGHTING ANY SPECIFIC AREA ON SPECIFIC DAYS PRECLUDES
INTRODUCTION OF ANY THREAT AREAS THIS PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 09/20/2011

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KUNR [200858]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 200858
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
257 AM MDT TUE SEP 20 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0751 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NE ECHETA 44.47N 105.83W
09/19/2011 M72 MPH CAMPBELL WY MESONET

ECHETA RAWS


&&

$$

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KABR [200801]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KABR 200801
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
300 AM CDT TUE SEP 20 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0106 AM NON-TSTM WND GST PIERRE 44.37N 100.32W
09/20/2011 M62 MPH HUGHES SD ASOS

0159 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 N VIVIAN 44.12N 100.29W
09/20/2011 M58 MPH LYMAN SD MESONET

MEASURED AT FORT PIERRE RAWS SITE. GUST OCCURRED BETWEEN
1259AM AND 159AM CDT.


&&

$$

TMT

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 200727
SWODY3
SPC AC 200726

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 AM CDT TUE SEP 20 2011

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE/SHARP UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL BE
THE PRIMARY UPPER FEATURE OF INTEREST THIS PERIOD...WITH RIDGING
OVER MUCH OF THE WEST AND OFF THE E COAST. AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS
SLOWLY EWD TO THE MS VALLEY...AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
LIKEWISE TO PROGRESS SLOWLY ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE FRONT REACHING THE
VICINITY OF THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT.

SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE ERN
THIRD OF THE U.S. THIS PERIOD...BOTH INVOF THE FRONT AND AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY BENEATH BROAD CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW. OVERALL
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE LIMITED -- PARTICULARLY N OF THE TN
VALLEY WHERE SOMEWHAT STRONGER FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST.
MEANWHILE...MUCH WEAKER MID-LEVEL WINDS ATOP THE MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE
AIRMASS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND E COAST REGION SUGGESTS THAT STORMS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN
FOR THE MOST PART SUB-SEVERE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 09/20/2011

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 200601
SWODY2
SPC AC 200600

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT TUE SEP 20 2011

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED FLOW FIELD ALOFT IS PROGGED ACROSS NOAM THIS
PERIOD...WITH A LARGE ALEUTIAN LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY IMPINGE ON THE NW NOAM COAST...AND THEN DOWNSTREAM RIDGING
FROM THE WRN CONUS NNEWD INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND PRAIRIE.
ANOTHER LARGE/EXPANDING TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLOWLY SEWD
ACROSS ONTARIO/THE CENTRAL CONUS...AND THEN DOWNSTREAM RIDGING IS
PROGGED OVER THE E COAST OF THE CONUS.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE INITIALLY INVOF THE UPPER MS VALLEY IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT NEWD INTO ONTARIO...WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY/MID SOUTH/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. PROGRESS/LOCATION OF THIS FRONT IS NOT BEING
HANDLED WELL BY THE MODELS -- WITH THE GFS ROUGHLY 12 HOURS FASTER
THAN THE NAM WITH RESPECT TO FRONTAL PROGRESS ACROSS THE MIDWEST.

THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING FRONTAL POSITION COMPLICATES THE
CONVECTIVE FORECAST THIS PERIOD...AS VERY WEAK INSTABILITY EXPECTED
FROM THE MID MS VALLEY NWD SUGGESTS THAT ANY STORMS WILL BE FOCUSED
IN A NARROW AXIS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONTAL ZONE. WHILE SHEAR
WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SOME ORGANIZATION AND
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT...THE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING FRONTAL -- AND THUS CONVECTIVE -- LOCATION PRECLUDES
INTRODUCTION OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM.

OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS INTO THE ERN STATES...WITHIN BROADER ZONE OF CYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THE MAIN TROUGH. WITH A MORE MOIST/SUFFICIENTLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS...EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
WITHIN THE LARGER-SCALE FLOW SHOULD AID IN AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM
DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL FOR APPRECIABLE
ORGANIZATION...A FEW STRONGER/MULTICELL CLUSTERS COULD
EVOLVE...ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR HAIL/WIND. AGAIN
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE OVERALL LIMITED NATURE OF THE THREAT AND THE
BROAD GEOGRAPHIC REGION AFFECTED...WILL OPT NOT TO INCLUDE EVEN LOW
SEVERE PROBABILITIES THIS FORECAST.

..GOSS.. 09/20/2011

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 200503
SWODY1
SPC AC 200501

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1201 AM CDT TUE SEP 20 2011

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT UPPER LOW AND CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET MAX WILL MOVE FROM
THE DAKOTAS INTO MN BY 00Z...BECOMING VERTICALLY STACKED WITH
SURFACE LOW. WHILE COOL ALOFT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE MEAGER
WITH ONLY 40S TO LOWER 50S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BECOME OCCLUDED FROM ERN ND INTO NRN MN
DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A HIGH SHEAR AND LOW CAPE
SITUATION...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. THE LOW CENTER
WILL DRIFT EWD OVERNIGHT INTO NRN WI/WRN MI U.P. BY 12Z WED...WITH A
WANING THUNDERSTORM THREAT OVERNIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SERN
STATES...BUT WEAK SHEAR PROFILES BENEATH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ALONG
WITH POOR LAPSE RATE PROFILES SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE THREAT
ASIDE FROM LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.

...MN/WI/UPPER MI...
STRONG LIFT WILL EXIST EARLY ACROSS MUCH OF MN...IN A ZONE OF WARM
ADVECTION WITH A 40-50 KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET...AND WITH THE COLD
FRONT QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE W. INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK...BUT
A ZONE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE QUICKLY EWD INTO WI BY 18Z...AND MAY POSE A
MARGINAL WIND/HAIL THREAT. STRONG SHEAR PROFILES AND WIND MAGNITUDES
DOWN LOW WOULD FAVOR WIND GUSTS...BUT TIME OF DAY MAY MITIGATE THIS
THREAT WITH POOR LAPSE RATES INITIALLY.

FARTHER N INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT...CONVECTION
MAY BE BETTER TIMED WITH PEAK HEATING. SHEAR PROFILES WILL FAVOR
RELATIVELY LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS...CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF TIME NEAR PEAK HEATING FOR A
TORNADO...BUT ANY SUCH THREAT IS MINIMAL GIVEN POOR LAPSE RATES IN
THE LOW LEVELS AND WEAK INSTABILITY.

..JEWELL/ROGERS.. 09/20/2011

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