KAPX [260332]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 260332
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1131 PM EDT FRI OCT 25 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1040 PM NON-TSTM WND GST NAUBINWAY 46.11N 85.45W
10/25/2013 M52 MPH MACKINAC MI C-MAN STATION


&&

$$

ASULLIVA

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KGRR [260304]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 260304
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1103 PM EDT FRI OCT 25 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0930 PM NON-TSTM WND GST BIG SABLE POINT 44.06N 86.51W
10/25/2013 M51.00 MPH MASON MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS

1010 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 W MUSKEGON 43.23N 86.34W
10/25/2013 M49.00 MPH MUSKEGON MI OTHER FEDERAL

MUSKEGON GLERL OBSERVATION


&&

$$

JK

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KAPX [260237]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 260237
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1036 PM EDT FRI OCT 25 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0950 PM NON-TSTM WND GST NAUBINWAY 46.11N 85.45W
10/25/2013 M53 MPH MACKINAC MI C-MAN STATION


&&

$$

ASULLIVA

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KAPX [260230]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 260230
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1030 PM EDT FRI OCT 25 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0940 PM NON-TSTM WND GST MANISTEE 44.24N 86.33W
10/25/2013 M47 MPH MANISTEE MI C-MAN STATION


&&

$$

SMD

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 260049
SWODY1
SPC AC 260047

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 PM CDT FRI OCT 25 2013

VALID 260100Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN ROCKIES/SRN HIGH PLAINS...

PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH HAS TRANSLATED INTO THE SRN ROCKIES THIS
EVENING WITH BROAD DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT NOW SPREADING ACROSS THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS. THIS FEATURE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR A CORRIDOR OF
CONVECTION THAT IS MIGRATING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM AND
ALONG THE SRN END OF THIS ACTIVITY A FEW STORMS HAVE TAKEN ON MORE
ORGANIZED CHARACTERISTICS...A FEW OF WHICH HAVE EVEN PRODUCED SOME
HAIL. 00Z SOUNDING FROM ABQ EXHIBITS VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH
500MB AND SBCAPE IS MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR CONTINUED TSTM ACTIVITY
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WITH TIME ELEVATED BUOYANCY SHOULD SPREAD
INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS WHICH MAY SUPPORT LIGHTNING...PRIMARILY
AFTER 03Z.

..DARROW.. 10/26/2013

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KABQ [252333]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 252333
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
533 PM MDT FRI OCT 25 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0515 PM HAIL 3 WSW CHAMITA 35.06N 106.14W
10/25/2013 M1.00 INCH SANTA FE NM TRAINED SPOTTER

INTERSTATE 25 MILE POST 189


&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1301453

$$

SHY

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KGJT [252155]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 252155
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
354 PM MDT FRI OCT 25 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 PM HAIL ARRIOLA 37.43N 108.65W
10/25/2013 E0.25 INCH MONTEZUMA CO PUBLIC

MEASURED ONE INCH DEEP ON THE GROUND


&&

$$

PF

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 251933
SWODY1
SPC AC 251930

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 PM CDT FRI OCT 25 2013

VALID 252000Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

NO CHANGES WERE REQUIRED TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK.

..JEWELL.. 10/25/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT FRI OCT 25 2013/

...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE CONUS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...DOWNSTREAM FROM QSTNRY CLOSED LOW OFF THE CA CST. IN THE
SRN BRANCH...NRN AZ UPR LOW SHOULD CONTINUE SLOWLY E INTO NRN NM BY
THIS EVE...BEFORE WEAKENING OVER W TX EARLY SAT AS IT BECOMES
ABSORBED WITHIN CONFLUENT FLOW ON SRN FRINGE OF WNWLY NRN STREAM
JET.

AT THE SFC...WEAK SSELY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER NM AND VICINITY ON
BACK SIDE OF EXPANSIVE CP SFC RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE TN VLY.
SOMEWHAT STRONGER S TO SSW FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION ABOVE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER. BUT AREA RAOB AND SATELLITE-DERIVED PW DATA
SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE RETURN INTO NM AND ADJACENT PARTS OF
NEIGHBORING STATES WILL REMAIN QUITE LIMITED.

...FOUR CORNERS TO W TX TODAY THROUGH EARLY SAT...
AN ARC OF SCTD TSTMS HAS PERSISTED SINCE LATE THU IN ZONE OF
ELEVATED ASCENT E AND SE OF NRN AZ UPR LOW. THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE/DEVELOP SLOWLY E TODAY...IN TANDEM WITH THE
LOW. WHILE SOME DIURNAL INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND POSSIBLY
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG WRN FRINGE OF EXISTING
STORMS...THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO
REGION IMMEDIATELY N AND E OF MID-LVL LAPSE RATE PLUME THAT ATTM
EXTENDS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS SE AND SSE ACROSS CNTRL AND SE NM.

SMALL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST/MOST PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS
GIVEN MODERATE STATIC /I.E. DRY/ INSTABILITY...BUT SPARSE MOISTURE
SHOULD LIMIT MAGNITUDE OF BUOYANCY AND THE RISK FOR SVR HAIL.
THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS THE ZONE OF GREATEST ASCENT SHIFTS E
INTO W TX TNGT/EARLY SAT.

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 251707
SWODY2
SPC AC 251705

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 PM CDT FRI OCT 25 2013

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS ROTATING AROUND
THE HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A COOL/DRY AIR
MASS OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS...THE EXCEPTION BEING OVER THE SRN
PLAINS WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NWD IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE RESULT WILL BE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE MARGINALLY SEVERE ACROSS TX.

...W CNTRL TX...
A COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SWD INTO NWRN TX AND CNTRL OK BY LATE
AFTERNOON...WHILE SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS BRING MID 50S F DEWPOINTS TO
THE FRONTAL ZONE. STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR FROM W TX INTO SWRN
OK...WHICH WILL CREATE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ERODING CIN.
STORMS WILL THUS EASILY FORM ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

COLD AIR WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO RESULT IN STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH WILL CONDITIONALLY FAVOR HAIL PRODUCTION.
WHILE WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN WEAK...GOOD MID TO UPPER
LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD HELP TO ORGANIZE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE CELLS
CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL AT OR BELOW GOLF BALL SIZE...WITH LOCALLY
STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS BEFORE THE SUN SETS AND STORMS WEAKEN
DUE TO WEAKENING FORCING FOR ASCENT.

..JEWELL.. 10/25/2013

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 251614
SWODY1
SPC AC 251612

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1112 AM CDT FRI OCT 25 2013

VALID 251630Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE CONUS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...DOWNSTREAM FROM QSTNRY CLOSED LOW OFF THE CA CST. IN THE
SRN BRANCH...NRN AZ UPR LOW SHOULD CONTINUE SLOWLY E INTO NRN NM BY
THIS EVE...BEFORE WEAKENING OVER W TX EARLY SAT AS IT BECOMES
ABSORBED WITHIN CONFLUENT FLOW ON SRN FRINGE OF WNWLY NRN STREAM
JET.

AT THE SFC...WEAK SSELY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER NM AND VICINITY ON
BACK SIDE OF EXPANSIVE CP SFC RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE TN VLY.
SOMEWHAT STRONGER S TO SSW FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION ABOVE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER. BUT AREA RAOB AND SATELLITE-DERIVED PW DATA
SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE RETURN INTO NM AND ADJACENT PARTS OF
NEIGHBORING STATES WILL REMAIN QUITE LIMITED.

...FOUR CORNERS TO W TX TODAY THROUGH EARLY SAT...
AN ARC OF SCTD TSTMS HAS PERSISTED SINCE LATE THU IN ZONE OF
ELEVATED ASCENT E AND SE OF NRN AZ UPR LOW. THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE/DEVELOP SLOWLY E TODAY...IN TANDEM WITH THE
LOW. WHILE SOME DIURNAL INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND POSSIBLY
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG WRN FRINGE OF EXISTING
STORMS...THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO
REGION IMMEDIATELY N AND E OF MID-LVL LAPSE RATE PLUME THAT ATTM
EXTENDS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS SE AND SSE ACROSS CNTRL AND SE NM.

SMALL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST/MOST PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS
GIVEN MODERATE STATIC /I.E. DRY/ INSTABILITY...BUT SPARSE MOISTURE
SHOULD LIMIT MAGNITUDE OF BUOYANCY AND THE RISK FOR SVR HAIL.
THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS THE ZONE OF GREATEST ASCENT SHIFTS E
INTO W TX TNGT/EARLY SAT.

..CORFIDI/SMITH.. 10/25/2013

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KCLE [251413]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KCLE 251413
LSRCLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1013 AM EDT FRI OCT 25 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 AM SNOW 1 SSE MONTVILLE 41.59N 81.05W
10/25/2013 M4.0 INCH GEAUGA OH COCORAHS

24 HOUR SNOWFALL.

1004 AM SNOW MONTVILLE 41.59N 81.05W
10/25/2013 M2.0 INCH GEAUGA OH TRAINED SPOTTER

12 HOUR SNOWFALL.

1006 AM SNOW THOMPSON 5SW 41.65N 81.09W
10/25/2013 M5.3 INCH GEAUGA OH SNOW SPOTTER

12 HOUR SNOWFALL.

1011 AM SNOW CHARDON 41.58N 81.18W
10/25/2013 M2.0 INCH GEAUGA OH CO-OP OBSERVER

12 HOUR SNOWFALL.


&&

EVENT NUMBER CLE1301056
EVENT NUMBER CLE1301057
EVENT NUMBER CLE1301058
EVENT NUMBER CLE1301059

$$

LW

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 251233
SWODY1
SPC AC 251230

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0730 AM CDT FRI OCT 25 2013

VALID 251300Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICAN MIDLATITUDES WILL REMAIN
CHARACTERIZED BY ERN TROUGHING...AND WRN RIDGING PENETRATED BY THREE
PRIMARY MID-UPPER CYCLONES ON SMALLER SCALES...
1. LOW INITIALLY LOCATED OVER SRN UT/NRN AZ...FCST TO MOVE SLOWLY
EWD TO ENEWD THROUGH PERIOD...WHILE WEAKENING. BY 12Z...THIS
FEATURE SHOULD DEVOLVE INTO OPEN-WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NRN NM
NEWD OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. BY THAT TIME...THIS PERTURBATION
WILL BEGIN TO LINK WITH SWRN FRINGE OF NWLY FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH ERN CONUS TROUGH...AND REINFORCED BY STG SHORTWAVE DIGGING SEWD
ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES.
2. SMALL BUT PRONOUNCED MID-UPPER CYCLONE NOW DRIFTING EWD OVER
VANCOUVER ISLAND...ALMOST DIRECTLY IN MEAN-RIDGE POSITION. THIS
PERTURBATION SHOULD TURN SSEWD AND DRIFT VERY SLOWLY ACROSS OLYMPIC
PENINSULA/PUGET SOUND REGION.
3. BROAD MID-UPPER CYCLONE WITH MULTIPLE/EMBEDDED MESOSCALE
CIRCULATIONS EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY...BUT GENERALLY
CENTERED NEAR 38N133W OFFSHORE NRN CA. THIS FEATURE SHOULD DRIFT
SWD THROUGH PERIOD.

OF THESE CYCLONES...ONLY SWRN CONUS FEATURE WILL EXERT ANY
SUBSTANTIAL INFLUENCE ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY.

...4-CORNERS REGION TO SRN ROCKIES AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE...SOME OF WHICH MAY
PRODUCE SMALL/SUB-SVR HAIL MAINLY DURING AFTN/EVENING. SVR THREAT
IS TOO LOW FOR AOA 5% PROBABILITIES...GIVEN LACK OF GREATER
MAGNITUDE TO BOTH CAPE AND DEEP SHEAR.

EXPANSIVE FIELD OF DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...JUXTAPOSED WITH MIDLEVEL
UVV OVER AZ...OVERLIES BROAD PLUME OF PAC MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
LOW-LEVEL WAA CONVEYOR WRAPPING INTO ERN SEMICIRCLE OF MID-UPPER
CYCLONE. ALTHOUGH WAVE ALOFT WILL WEAKEN GRADUALLY WITH TIME...THIS
REGIME WILL SHIFT EWD ATOP MRGL BUT INCREASING GULF MOISTURE IN LOW
LEVELS. WIDELY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE PERSISTED ALL NIGHT
INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS IN THIS REGIME...AND EPISODIC/EMBEDDED
THUNDER IS LIKELY WITHIN PRECIP PLUME THROUGHOUT REMAINDER PERIOD AS
IT SHIFTS SLOWLY EWD ACROSS GEN TSTM OUTLOOK. GREATEST COVERAGE MAY
OCCUR OVER PORTIONS 4-CORNERS AREA SEWD ACROSS NWRN NM...ESPECIALLY
CUMULATIVELY FROM AFTN INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS -- GIVEN SLOW
MOVEMENT OF PARENT SYSTEM...AND POTENTIAL FOR PATCHES OF FAVORABLE
DIABATIC SFC HEATING TO UNDERLIE COOLING AIR ALOFT FROM MID-AFTN
INTO EVENING. MLCAPE MAY REACH NEAR 500 J/KG OVER PORTIONS
CENTRAL/SRN NM TODAY.

..EDWARDS/COHEN.. 10/25/2013

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KGSP [251139]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 251139
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
739 AM EDT FRI OCT 25 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1129 PM SNOW 2 S BANNER ELK 36.13N 81.87W
10/24/2013 E1.0 INCH AVERY NC PUBLIC

OBSERVED ATOP SUGAR MOUNTAIN


&&

$$

CSH

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KGRR [251125]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 251125
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
724 AM EDT FRI OCT 25 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0723 AM SNOW BLOOMINGDALE 42.38N 85.96W
10/25/2013 M3.7 INCH VAN BUREN MI CO-OP OBSERVER

AMOUNT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.


&&

$$

TJT

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 250901
SWOD48
SPC AC 250900

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT FRI OCT 25 2013

VALID 281200Z - 021200Z

...DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE/MULTI-DAY SEVERE RISK WILL BE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY FOR
AT LEAST PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS ESPECIALLY AROUND DAYS 5-6
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...AND PERHAPS INTO DAY 7/THURSDAY. WHILE AT LEAST
CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISKS SEEM POSSIBLE ON ONE OR MORE
DAYS...CONSIDERABLE GUIDANCE VARIABILITY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF
THE SOUTHWEST STATES UPPER TROUGH PRECLUDES ANY SPECIFIC DELINEATION
OF 30 PERCENT EQUIVALENT SEVERE RISK AREAS. IN GENERAL...THE 00Z
ECMWF FEATURES A MUCH SLOWER SOLUTION AS COMPARED TO THE FASTER/MORE
POSITIVE-TILT 00Z GFS/UKMET GUIDANCE.

THAT SAID...CURRENT SPECULATIONS ARE THAT SOME SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUCH AS WEST/NORTHWEST TX
INTO WESTERN OK ON DAY 5/TUESDAY...WITH STRONGER TSTMS POTENTIALLY
ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF AZ/NM. A MORE WIDESPREAD
SEVERE RISK COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO DAY
6/WEDNESDAY...WITH ALL SEVERE FACETS POTENTIALLY POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OK/TX AND PERHAPS PORTIONS OF KS/ARKLATEX.

..GUYER.. 10/25/2013

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 250730
SWODY3
SPC AC 250728

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT FRI OCT 25 2013

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...DISCUSSION...
A SPLIT/QUASI-ZONAL LARGE SCALE FLOW REGIME WILL EXIST OVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONUS ON SUNDAY. A WEAKENING SOUTHERN STREAM
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE WILL SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE GULF COAST
STATES. MEANWHILE...A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY NEAR
COASTAL SOUTHERN CA...WHILE A MORE CONSEQUENTIAL UPPER TROUGH/POLAR
JET DIGS GENERALLY SOUTHWARD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

THE MAIN POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/EMBEDDED TSTMS ON SUNDAY IS EXPECTED
TO BE ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TX/UPPER TX COAST INTO LA. THIS WILL BE
TIED TO WEAK ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHEAST-MOVING/WEAKENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF A WEAKENING/STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. NO SEVERE
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED LARGE SCALE/MASS FIELD
TRENDS AND ASSOCIATED WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR/BUOYANCY.

..GUYER.. 10/25/2013

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 250559
SWODY2
SPC AC 250557

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CDT FRI OCT 25 2013

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE/SPLIT UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL EXIST OVER THE CONUS ON
SATURDAY. THE PREVALENCE OF COOL/STABLE CONDITIONS WILL SPATIALLY
CONFINE TSTMS AND ANY ASSOCIATED SEVERE POTENTIAL TO PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING FRONT.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY SATURDAY...WHILE CONTINUING TO
SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD/WEAKEN TOWARD THE ARKLATEX VICINITY
SATURDAY NIGHT. A RELATIVELY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS /MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/ WILL SPREAD GENERALLY NORTHWARD AHEAD
OF THE ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THE ASSOCIATED SOUTHEASTWARD
MOVING COLD FRONT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH/FRONTAL ZONE EARLY IN THE DAY...ALTHOUGH AT
LEAST MODEST SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR BY AFTERNOON
ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THIS MORNING ACTIVITY. THIS WILL
PRINCIPALLY BE ACROSS PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL/NORTH TX WHERE AS MUCH
AS 750-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE MAY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
MID-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS/VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK NEAR THE FRONT
ACROSS OK/FAR NORTH TX. BUT FARTHER SOUTH...SUFFICIENT
SHEAR/INSTABILITY MAY COINCIDE ACROSS PARTS OF
WEST-CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL TX FOR A FEW STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE
MULTICELL TSTMS CAPABLE OF HAIL/WIND SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING.

..GUYER.. 10/25/2013

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 250545
SWODY1
SPC AC 250543

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1243 AM CDT FRI OCT 25 2013

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SWRN U.S...

MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH LOCATED ALONG THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY
WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS AZ INTO THE SRN ROCKIES BY 26/00Z. THIS
FEATURE WAS INSTRUMENTAL IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN FROM CNTRL AZ INTO SRN NM THURSDAY AND RENEWED
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE NOTED FRIDAY DOWNSTREAM. A PLUME OF STEEP
LAPSE RATES WILL OVERSPREAD THE SRN ROCKIES AND FAVORABLE ASCENT
SHOULD ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. WHILE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
DIURNALLY MAXIMIZED...DEEPENING WLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW
CONVECTION TO SPREAD INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THE PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS NM...WHERE GREATEST
CONCENTRATION OF STORMS IS EXPECTED...EXHIBIT A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
MUCAPE AND ASIDE FROM SOME GRAUPEL OR SMALL HAIL IT APPEARS BRIEF
HEAVY SHOWERS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH CONVECTION ACROSS THIS
REGION.

..DARROW/PETERS.. 10/25/2013

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