DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 250559
SWODY2
SPC AC 250557

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CDT FRI OCT 25 2013

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE/SPLIT UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL EXIST OVER THE CONUS ON
SATURDAY. THE PREVALENCE OF COOL/STABLE CONDITIONS WILL SPATIALLY
CONFINE TSTMS AND ANY ASSOCIATED SEVERE POTENTIAL TO PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING FRONT.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY SATURDAY...WHILE CONTINUING TO
SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD/WEAKEN TOWARD THE ARKLATEX VICINITY
SATURDAY NIGHT. A RELATIVELY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS /MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/ WILL SPREAD GENERALLY NORTHWARD AHEAD
OF THE ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THE ASSOCIATED SOUTHEASTWARD
MOVING COLD FRONT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH/FRONTAL ZONE EARLY IN THE DAY...ALTHOUGH AT
LEAST MODEST SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR BY AFTERNOON
ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THIS MORNING ACTIVITY. THIS WILL
PRINCIPALLY BE ACROSS PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL/NORTH TX WHERE AS MUCH
AS 750-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE MAY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
MID-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS/VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK NEAR THE FRONT
ACROSS OK/FAR NORTH TX. BUT FARTHER SOUTH...SUFFICIENT
SHEAR/INSTABILITY MAY COINCIDE ACROSS PARTS OF
WEST-CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL TX FOR A FEW STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE
MULTICELL TSTMS CAPABLE OF HAIL/WIND SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING.

..GUYER.. 10/25/2013

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