KDDC [160218]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KDDC 160218
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
918 PM CDT SAT SEP 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0420 PM TSTM WND GST N RICHFIELD 37.27N 101.79W
09/15/2007 E50.00 MPH MORTON KS PUBLIC

0505 PM HAIL 23 NE ELKHART 37.24N 101.60W
09/15/2007 E0.75 INCH MORTON KS PUBLIC

0510 PM HAIL 11 WNW HUGOTON 37.24N 101.53W
09/15/2007 E1.00 INCH STEVENS KS PUBLIC

0540 PM HAIL 3 SSE HUGOTON 37.14N 101.33W
09/15/2007 E0.88 INCH STEVENS KS PUBLIC

&&

$$

01

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KPSR [160128]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPSR 160128
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
628 PM MST SAT SEP 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0110 PM TSTM WND DMG COTTON CENTER 33.09N 112.67W
09/15/2007 MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

ALONG HIGHWAY 85 FROM BUCKEYE TO GILA BEND...UPROOTED
TREES AND BROKEN LIMBS...6X10 FOOT REAL ESTATE SIGNS
BLOWN OVER...20X30 ROOF BLOWN OFF A SHOP. TWO MILES SOUTH
OF COTTON CENTER POWER POLE SNAPPED. TIME IS ESTIMATED.

&&

$$

INIGUEZ

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 160053
SWODY1
SPC AC 160050

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 PM CDT SAT SEP 15 2007

VALID 160100Z - 161200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..AZ...

WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS
OF SRN AZ INTO NRN MEXICO HAS STABILIZED MUCH OF THE BUOYANCY ACROSS
THIS REGION. CONTINUED STORM MERGERS AND CLUSTERING WILL SOON
DESTROY WHAT LITTLE INSTABILITY REMAINS AND DEEP CONVECTION WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY/AREAL COVERAGE BY 03Z.

..SRN KS...

VERY WARM SFC TEMPERATURES...LOW-MID 90S...DEVELOPED ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS FROM THE NRN TX PANHANDLE INTO SWRN KS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
CERTAINLY AIDED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT INITIATED
ALONG WEAK SFC BOUNDARY SW OF DDC/GCK AREA. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING OF THIS CONVECTION...THOUGH INCREASING
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION COULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER FOR
SEVERAL HOURS AS THEY SPREAD SLOWLY EAST.

..ELSEWHERE...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE RAPIDLY WEAKENING ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AS
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD SWWD OFF THE GULF
COAST WHERE ACTIVITY MAY LINGER OVER WARMER WATERS INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

.DARROW.. 09/16/2007

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KDDC [152258]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 152258
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
558 PM CDT SAT SEP 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0540 PM HAIL 3 SSE HUGOTON 37.14N 101.33W
09/15/2007 E0.88 INCH STEVENS KS PUBLIC

&&

$$

MB

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KTWC [152252]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTWC 152252
LSRTWC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
351 PM MST SAT SEP 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0350 PM FLASH FLOOD 5 N AJO 32.46N 112.87W
09/15/2007 PIMA AZ LAW ENFORCEMENT

FLASH FLOODING ON HIGHWAY 85 NORTH OF AJO. REPORTED BY
ARIZONA DPS.

&&

$$

PYTLAK

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KFFC [152249]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KFFC 152249
LSRFFC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
649 PM EDT SAT SEP 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0310 PM HAIL 1 S VILLA RICA 33.72N 84.92W
09/14/2007 E0.75 INCH CARROLL GA STORM CHASER

STORM SPOTTER REPORTED 3/4 INCH HAIL AS WELL AS ROTATION
AT SW EDGE OF THUNDERSTORM

0350 PM HAIL 3 W DOUGLASVILLE 33.75N 84.80W
09/14/2007 E0.75 INCH DOUGLAS GA STORM CHASER

STORM SPOTTER REPORTED 3/4 INCH HAIL ALONG WITH ROTATION
AT THE SW EDGE OF THUNDERSTORM ALONG I-20 NEAR LEE ROAD.

0400 PM TSTM WND GST 1 SW LITHIA SPRINGS 33.77N 84.66W
09/14/2007 M51.00 MPH DOUGLAS GA STORM CHASER

STORM CHASER REPORTED 44 KT WIND MEASURED FROM ANEMOMETER
ALONG I-20 1 MILE WEST OF LEE ROAD.

&&

$$

SBK

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KDDC [152215]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 152215
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
515 PM CDT SAT SEP 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0510 PM HAIL 11 WNW HUGOTON 37.24N 101.53W
09/15/2007 E1.00 INCH STEVENS KS PUBLIC

&&

$$

MB

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KDDC [152209]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 152209
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
509 PM CDT SAT SEP 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0505 PM HAIL 23 NE ELKHART 37.24N 101.60W
09/15/2007 E0.75 INCH MORTON KS PUBLIC

&&

$$

JRJ

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1970

ACUS11 KWNS 152156
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152155
AZZ000-152330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1970
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0455 PM CDT SAT SEP 15 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/CENTRAL AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 152155Z - 152330Z

ADDITIONAL PULSE-TYPE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL AZ...WITH
ISOLATED STRONG...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER CORES...AND ESPECIALLY
WITHIN ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE THAT EXTENDED FROM WRN
PIMA TO SWRN/WRN MARICOPA COUNTIES.

OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED A WEAKLY SHEARED AND MOIST/MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS SRN INTO CENTRAL AZ SUPPORTIVE OF
PULSE-TYPE TSTMS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN APPARENT WEAK MID
LEVEL IMPULSE LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...WITH A SECOND NWD
MOVING IMPULSE OVER FAR NWRN MEXICO. THESE IMPULSES ARE EMBEDDED
WITHIN A PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT EXTENDED NWD FROM MEXICO
AND SURGED INTO SRN AZ THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK...ASCENT WITH THESE IMPULSES AND
SOME ASCENT AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH TRACKING EWD INTO CA WILL AID IN
ADDITIONAL TSTM ACTIVITY INTO THE EARLY EVENING. DESPITE WEAK SHEAR
LIMITING STORM ORGANIZATION...40-45 DEGREE SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS WITHIN INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL SUPPORT
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER PULSE-TYPE
TSTMS. IN ADDITION TO THIS THREAT...HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...GIVEN PW VALUES RANGING FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES.

.PETERS.. 09/15/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

32071349 32901353 33921356 34151325 34011260 34181162
33871112 32631074 31681047 31321042 31301105

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KDDC [152141]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 152141
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
441 PM CDT SAT SEP 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0420 PM TSTM WND GST N RICHFIELD 37.27N 101.79W
09/15/2007 E50 MPH MORTON KS PUBLIC

&&

$$

01

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KGSP [152123]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 152123
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
523 PM EDT SAT SEP 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0835 PM TORNADO 4 ENE CLINTON 34.50N 81.80W
09/14/2007 LAURENS SC PUBLIC

FOUR TO FIVE TREES SNAPPED...CANOPIES FELL IN VARIOUS
DIRECTIONS. FIFTEEN 8-10 INCH DIAMETER PECAN LIMBS FELL
IN NEIGHBORS YARD. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

$$

NED

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KPUB [152021]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 152021
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
221 PM MDT SAT SEP 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0150 PM HAIL 11 S SPRINGFIELD 37.25N 102.62W
09/15/2007 E0.75 INCH BACA CO TRAINED SPOTTER

PENNY SIZE HAIL FELL FOR ABOUT 10 MINUTES WHICH COVERED
THE GROUND

&&

$$

LW

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1969

ACUS11 KWNS 152009
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152009
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-152215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1969
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0309 PM CDT SAT SEP 15 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SE CO...SW KS...PARTS OF TX/OK PNHDLS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 152009Z - 152215Z

INITIATION OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS UNDERWAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
COLORADO...NEAR SPRINGFIELD...IN CENTRAL BACA COUNTY. THIS IS WHERE
DESTABILIZATION HAS BECOME MAXIMIZED...NEAR INTERSECTION OF
THERMAL/MOISTURE RIDGE AXES...IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW
WITHIN HIGH PLAINS SURFACE TROUGH. WITH LARGE SCALE UPPER FORCING
FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WEAK BENEATH BROAD MID/UPPER
RIDGE...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 23-00Z SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN
RATHER ISOLATED. BUT...A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION/GROWTH OF ONGOING
ACTIVITY SEEMS PROBABLE...WITH AN ADDITIONAL STORM OR TWO
POSSIBLE...AS MIXED LAYER CAPE PEAKS AROUND 2000 J/KG LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...IN FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME TO THE EAST
OF THE SURFACE LOW. AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL IS POSSIBLE... SUPPORTED
BY FAVORABLE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH 25-30 KT SOUTHERLY 850 FLOW
BENEATH 20-30 KT 500 WIND FIELDS. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPSCALE
CONVECTIVE GROWTH COULD OCCUR AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AFTER
00Z. BUT...THIS WILL OCCUR COINCIDENT WITH STABILIZING TRENDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND THE LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL MAY NOT PERSIST LONG THEREAFTER.

.KERR.. 09/15/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...

37530254 38230214 38320131 37720042 37160042 36800027
36190117 36300205 36760238 36950254

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 151956
SWODY1
SPC AC 151954

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 PM CDT SAT SEP 15 2007

VALID 152000Z - 161200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A FLAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A MESOSCALE LOW IS PRESENT ACROSS FAR
SE CO WITH A THERMAL AXIS EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE WRN TX PANHANDLE.
SBCAPE VALUES LOCALLY EXCEED 2000 J/KG ALONG THIS CORRIDOR AND
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED IN FAR SE CO NEAR THE SFC LOW.
THIS WILL AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SE CO AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE NM OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.
THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ON THE SRN EDGE OF STRONGER FLOW
ALOFT IN A REGION WHERE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP ASSOCIATED
WITH AN EWD EXTENTION OF THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. AS STORMS
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN...A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST
/REF MCD 1969/. HOWEVER...CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED DUE TO
LIMITED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. THE
CONVECTION MAY ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE AND A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER.
MODEL FORECASTS ALSO DEVELOP SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WRN KS
LATER TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL JET. A HAIL POTENTIAL MAY EXIST WITH THE STRONGER CELLS
WITHIN THIS CLUSTER.

..SRN AZ...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWD FROM THE GULF
OF CA ACROSS SW AZ. DEWPOINTS EWD ACROSS SRN AZ ARE IN THE 50S F AND
MLCAPE VALUES GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. WARM SFC TEMPS
AND THE INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS SRN AZ THIS AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE WEAK...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
HAVE BECOME VERY STEEP WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH
THE STRONGER CELLS.

.BROYLES.. 09/15/2007

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KCAE [151954]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS52 KCAE 151954
LSRCAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
354 PM EDT SAT SEP 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0935 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 NW EHRHARDT 33.13N 81.05W
09/14/2007 BAMBERG SC EMERGENCY MNGR

LARGE TREE DOWN ACROSS HIGHWAY 64 REPORTED TO THE CENTRAL
DISPATCH OF BAMBERG COUNTY.

&&

$$

FPW

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KCAE [151952]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCAE 151952
LSRCAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
352 PM EDT SAT SEP 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0930 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 NW EHRHARDT 33.15N 81.07W
09/14/2007 BAMBERG SC UTILITY COMPANY

SEVERAL TREES ON POWER LINES BETWEEN BAMBERG AND
EHRHARDT. REPORTED BY EDISTO COOP ELECTRIC CO.

&&

$$

FPW

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 151729
SWODY2
SPC AC 151727

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT SAT SEP 15 2007

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OFF THE NRN CA COAST WILL OPEN UP AND
MOVE EWD INTO THE SWRN U.S. TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION WILL INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND AN AXIS OF
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS AZ AND UT. SFC HEATING AND LIFT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AZ...UT AND WRN CO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COLD AIR ALOFT AND MODERATE TO STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
MARGINAL HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE FROM NRN AZ ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN UT WHERE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERTED-V PROFILES. THE MAIN THREAT ACROSS SCNTRL AZ
ALTHOUGH MARGINAL MAY BE ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WHERE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER THAN AREAS FURTHER NORTH.

.BROYLES.. 09/15/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 151622
SWODY1
SPC AC 151619

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 AM CDT SAT SEP 15 2007

VALID 151630Z - 161200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER THE
CONUS...WITH MID LEVEL TROUGHS PERSISTING OVER THE NERN STATES AND
NEAR THE PAC COAST...AND A MID LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SRN
PLAINS. IN THE WAKE OF AN INITIAL STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NEW
ENGLAND...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST...AND SLOWLY SWD ACROSS N FL AND THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
FRONTAL ZONE WILL HELP FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY FROM FL
TO S TX.

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY TONIGHT WITHIN THE LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME FROM AZ INTO
ERN UT/WRN CO. ALSO...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE
HIGH TERRAIN ACROSS NW WY/SW MT/CENTRAL ID WSWWD INTO ORE/EXTREME NW
CA...WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DAYTIME HEATING COMBINE WITH WEAK
ASCENT AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WITHIN THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION
ZONE.

AN INITIAL CLUSTER OF ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL/SE KS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH WAA AND WEAK INSTABILITY BASED IN THE 850-700 MB
LAYER. THIS CONVECTION MAY PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE BELT
OF WAA SHIFTS EWD...WHILE ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL CONVECTION SHOULD
FORM LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AS FAR E AS MO/IL AS A MID-UPPER SPEED MAX
OVER NW NEB/SW SD CRESTS THE SRN PLAINS HIGH AND MOVES ESEWD TOWARD
MO.

..SE CO AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS UNDERWAY ACROSS SE CO...AND BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS ERN NM AND THE TX
PANHANDLE ARE SPREADING NWD. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OF 85-90 F AND
DEWPOINTS OF 56-62 F WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG
AND MINIMAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN A SMALL AREA OF SE CO/WRN OK
PANHANDLE/SW KS...WHERE CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE REGION OF LOW-LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE. IF STORMS FORM...THE
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR /ON THE SRN FRINGE OF A 60
KT UPPER JET/ COULD SUPPORT A SUPERCELL OR TWO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS.

..S CENTRAL AZ THIS AFTERNOON...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN INCREASING ACROSS SRN AZ...AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS TWO POSSIBLE MCV/S S OF NOGALES. THOUGH THE 12Z
SOUNDINGS FROM PHOENIX AND TUCSON STILL SHOW A PRONOUNCED INVERSION
AROUND 500 MB...THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO SRN AZ THIS AFTERNOON.
THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS GIVEN THE
TYPICAL INVERTED-V STRUCTURE OF THE AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER.

.THOMPSON/GRAMS.. 09/15/2007

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KICT [151515]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 151515
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1014 AM CDT SAT SEP 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1014 AM HEAVY RAIN ELLSWORTH 38.74N 98.23W
09/15/2007 M2.10 INCH ELLSWORTH KS CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

$$

KRC

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KAKQ [151515]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KAKQ 151515
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1114 AM EDT SAT SEP 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1210 AM TORNADO 5 SW EXMORE 37.48N 75.89W
09/15/2007 NORTHAMPTON VA EMERGENCY MNGR

NUMEROUS TREES DOWN AND POWER OUTGAGES OCCURRED AS A
SHORT LIVED WATERSPOUT CAME ONSHORE ALONG SILVER BEACH
ROAD.

&&

$$

MRUSNAK

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KICT [151404]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 151404
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
904 AM CDT SAT SEP 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0845 AM HEAVY RAIN ELLSWORTH 38.74N 98.23W
09/15/2007 M1.75 INCH ELLSWORTH KS CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

$$

KRC

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KCHS [151258]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 151258
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
857 AM EDT SAT SEP 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0926 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 22 ESE RACCOON BLUFF 31.40N 80.87W
09/14/2007 M38 MPH AMZ354 GA BUOY

NDBC SITE AT GRAYS REEF REPORTS 33 KNOTS.

&&

$$

33

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 151244
SWODY1
SPC AC 151242

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 AM CDT SAT SEP 15 2007

VALID 151300Z - 161200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY EAST OF
THE ROCKIES...RESULTING IN MOST AREAS BEING TOO DRY AND STABLE FOR
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...SEVERAL SMALL AREAS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION
ARE NOTED BELOW.

..KS/MO/SERN CO...
BAND OF CONVECTION MOVING INTO ERN KS WAS LOCATED WITHIN STRONG WARM
ADVECTION LOCATED BETWEEN 700-850 MB. THIS CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO
SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF MO DURING THE DAY AS WARM ADVECTION SHIFTS
EWD.

DESPITE WEAK DYNAMICAL FORCING...THETA-E ADVECTION AND WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG LEE-SIDE TROUGH MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED
STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS SERN CO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF TIME...APPROXIMATELY 21-00Z...SURFACE BASED STORMS MAY
DEVELOP WITHIN A NARROW AREA WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
MAY SUPPORT A SUPERCELL OR TWO. HOWEVER...THE EXPECTED VERY ISOLATED
STORM COVERAGE PRECLUDES A SEVERE RISK ATTM.

..AZ/WRN NM...
CIRCULATION AROUND UPPER HIGH...LOCATED OVER CENTRAL TX...WILL
ADVECT PLUME OF MID/HIGH LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE NWD INTO THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS.

..FL PENINSULA...
CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE SERN STATES AS UPPER TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT SWEEP EWD INTO THE ATLANTIC. AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA...DEEP MOIST PROFILES AND WARMING SURFACE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RESULT IN NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL
DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING AS STORM OUTFLOW/S STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER.

..NWRN U.S...
CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR THE ORE/CA BORDER WILL MOVE LITTLE
DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE EAST OF THE
LOW...STRETCHING FROM ORE EWD INTO SRN MT...SHOULD RESULT IN
SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL MOISTENING AND INSTABILITY FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY BETWEEN 19Z-03Z.

..SRN TX...
CIRCULATION AROUND HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IN CENTRAL TX WILL PUSH A
WEAK ELY WAVE WWD FROM THE WRN GULF INTO A SRN TX...WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

.IMY.. 09/15/2007

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