DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 151244
SWODY1
SPC AC 151242

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 AM CDT SAT SEP 15 2007

VALID 151300Z - 161200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY EAST OF
THE ROCKIES...RESULTING IN MOST AREAS BEING TOO DRY AND STABLE FOR
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...SEVERAL SMALL AREAS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION
ARE NOTED BELOW.

..KS/MO/SERN CO...
BAND OF CONVECTION MOVING INTO ERN KS WAS LOCATED WITHIN STRONG WARM
ADVECTION LOCATED BETWEEN 700-850 MB. THIS CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO
SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF MO DURING THE DAY AS WARM ADVECTION SHIFTS
EWD.

DESPITE WEAK DYNAMICAL FORCING...THETA-E ADVECTION AND WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG LEE-SIDE TROUGH MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED
STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS SERN CO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF TIME...APPROXIMATELY 21-00Z...SURFACE BASED STORMS MAY
DEVELOP WITHIN A NARROW AREA WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
MAY SUPPORT A SUPERCELL OR TWO. HOWEVER...THE EXPECTED VERY ISOLATED
STORM COVERAGE PRECLUDES A SEVERE RISK ATTM.

..AZ/WRN NM...
CIRCULATION AROUND UPPER HIGH...LOCATED OVER CENTRAL TX...WILL
ADVECT PLUME OF MID/HIGH LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE NWD INTO THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS.

..FL PENINSULA...
CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE SERN STATES AS UPPER TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT SWEEP EWD INTO THE ATLANTIC. AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA...DEEP MOIST PROFILES AND WARMING SURFACE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RESULT IN NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL
DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING AS STORM OUTFLOW/S STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER.

..NWRN U.S...
CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR THE ORE/CA BORDER WILL MOVE LITTLE
DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE EAST OF THE
LOW...STRETCHING FROM ORE EWD INTO SRN MT...SHOULD RESULT IN
SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL MOISTENING AND INSTABILITY FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY BETWEEN 19Z-03Z.

..SRN TX...
CIRCULATION AROUND HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IN CENTRAL TX WILL PUSH A
WEAK ELY WAVE WWD FROM THE WRN GULF INTO A SRN TX...WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

.IMY.. 09/15/2007

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