KEPZ [010356]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEPZ 010356
LSREPZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
956 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0632 PM FLASH FLOOD 5 SSW LAS CRUCES 32.27N 106.79W
08/31/2008 DONA ANA NM EMERGENCY MNGR

EVACUATIONS DUE TO POSSIBLE FLOODING IN LAS PALOMAS.

0651 PM FLASH FLOOD CUCHILLO 33.13N 107.36W
08/31/2008 SIERRA NM TRAINED SPOTTER

WATER ESTIMATED AT 1 FOOT DEEP COVERING FULL WIDTH OF
CUCHILLO CREEK LOW WATER CROSSING. BARRICADES ARE UP.

0656 PM FLASH FLOOD 5 SSW TRUTH OR CONSEQUE 33.07N 107.28W
08/31/2008 SIERRA NM EMERGENCY MNGR

WATER GOING OVER BANKS OF PALOMAS CREEK IN A SOME PLACES.
DRAINAGE IS INTO ADJACENT FIELDS IN THE COMMUNITIES OF
LAS PALOMAS, CUCHILLO, WINTON AND MONTICELLO.

0748 PM FLOOD 5 SSW TRUTH OR CONSEQUE 33.07N 107.28W
08/31/2008 SIERRA NM LAW ENFORCEMENT

HOMES FLOODED. EVACUATIONS IN PLACE. HIGHWAY 187 CLOSED
AT THE PALOMAS BRIDGE.

0844 PM FLASH FLOOD 4 N ARREY 32.91N 107.32W
08/31/2008 SIERRA NM LAW ENFORCEMENT

WATER OVER HIGHWAY 187 LOW WATER CROSSINGS JUST NORTH OF
ARREY AT MILE MARKERS 15, 17 AND 20.

&&

$$

TRIPOLI

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KILM [010327]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KILM 010327
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1127 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0615 PM RIP CURRENTS WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH 34.21N 77.80W
08/31/2008 NEW HANOVER NC LAW ENFORCEMENT

27 PEOPLE RESCUED BY WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH OCEAN RESCUE
DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH 615 PM EDT.

&&

$$

PFAFF

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KILM [010324]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KILM 010324
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1124 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0545 PM RIP CURRENTS 2 S KURE BEACH 33.97N 77.91W
08/31/2008 NEW HANOVER NC LAW ENFORCEMENT

*** 1 FATAL *** 47 YEAR OLD MALE DROWNED IN A RIP CURRENT
IN FORT FISHER OFF LOGGERHEAD RD.

&&

$$

PFAFF

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch - Number 875

WWUS20 KWNS 010304
SEL5
SPC WW 010303
IDZ000-UTZ000-WYZ000-010300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - NUMBER 875
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
903 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 875 ISSUED AT 120 PM MDT FOR PORTIONS OF

IDAHO
UTAH
WYOMING

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KMSO [010234]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KMSO 010234
LSRMSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
834 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0808 PM HAIL 3 S SALMON 45.13N 113.89W
08/31/2008 E0.75 INCH LEMHI ID TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

FOSTER

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 876

WWUS20 KWNS 010156
SEL6
SPC WW 010156
ALZ000-FLZ000-LAZ000-MSZ000-CWZ000-011200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 876
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
850 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN ALABAMA
FLORIDA PANHANDLE
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 850 PM UNTIL
700 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BATON
ROUGE LOUISIANA TO 20 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF APALACHICOLA
FLORIDA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 875...

DISCUSSION...HRCN GUSTAV WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE NCNTRL GULF
COAST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. STRONGER EFFECTIVE SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF
150-200 M2/S2 WAS ALREADY OVERSPREADING PORTIONS OF THE FL PANHDL
AND SERN LA/MS DELTA REGIONS. THIS SHEAR WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE HRCN TRACKS NWWD AND
STRONGER KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT SPREAD INLAND. CURRENTLY...ONLY ISOLD
DISCRETE STORMS WITHIN THE OUTER RAINBANDS ARE EXHIBITING
PERSISTENCE AND WEAK ROTATION BASED ON AREA RADARS. WITH TIME...THE
RISK FOR MORE NUMEROUS AND STRONGER CORES WITH TORNADO POTENTIAL
SHOULD DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY NEARER THE CENTER OF THE HRCN
CIRCULATION THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 09035.

...CARBIN

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KLIX [010123]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLIX 010123
LSRLIX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
823 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0803 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 9 E LIVINGSTON 30.50N 90.59W
08/31/2008 LIVINGSTON LA EMERGENCY MNGR

A FUNNEL CLOUD WAS OBSERVED.

&&

$$

11

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KSLC [010121]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KSLC 010121
LSRSLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
721 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0315 PM TSTM WND GST 10 S LAKESIDE 41.06N 112.89W
08/31/2008 E79.00 MPH BOX ELDER UT MESONET

LAKESIDE MESONET SITE. GUSTED IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH THROUGH
330 PM.

&&

$$

MPS

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KLIX [010108]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLIX 010108
LSRLIX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
808 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0752 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 3 E GONZALES 30.22N 90.87W
08/31/2008 ASCENSION LA LAW ENFORCEMENT

A FUNNEL CLOUD WAS OBSERVED.

&&

$$

11

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KBMX [010107]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBMX 010107
LSRBMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
806 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0645 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 W TALLASSEE 32.54N 85.97W
08/31/2008 ELMORE AL EMERGENCY MNGR

SPORADIC TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN FROM FRIENDSHIP TO
DEATSVILLE. TIME OF REPORTS RANGED FROM 645 TO 725 PM.

&&

$$

JONES/90

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KSLC [010100]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KSLC 010100
LSRSLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
700 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 PM TSTM WND GST WENDOVER 40.74N 114.02W
08/31/2008 M65.00 MPH TOOELE UT MESONET

WENDOVER PORT OF ENTRY MESONET SITE.

0200 PM TSTM WND GST WENDOVER 40.74N 114.02W
08/31/2008 M70.00 MPH TOOELE UT MESONET

WENDOVER PEAK MESONET SITE.

0300 PM TSTM WND GST 9 N LAKESIDE 41.33N 112.85W
08/31/2008 M65.00 MPH BOX ELDER UT MESONET

GUNNISON ISLAND MESONET SITE. WINDS GUSTED IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH THROUGH 330 PM

0330 PM TSTM WND GST 18 ESE LAKESIDE 41.07N 112.59W
08/31/2008 M71.00 MPH BOX ELDER UT MESONET

HAT ISLAND MESONET SITE.

0330 PM TSTM WND GST 15 W WEST WARREN 41.26N 112.44W
08/31/2008 M77.00 MPH BOX ELDER UT MESONET

PROMONTORY POINT MESONET SITE. WINDS GUSTED IN EXCESS OF
58 MPH THROUGH 445 PM.

0335 PM TSTM WND GST 11 E LAKESIDE 41.22N 112.67W
08/31/2008 M68.00 MPH BOX ELDER UT MESONET

GREAT SALT LAKE UPR MESONET SITE. WINDS GUSTED IN EXCESS
OF 58 MPH THROUGH 400 PM.

0420 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 W LAYTON 41.08N 112.01W
08/31/2008 DAVIS UT NWS EMPLOYEE

ONE TREE DOWN AND LARGE BRANCHES BROKEN OFF TREES.

0431 PM FLASH FLOOD 10 N KANAB 37.16N 112.52W
08/31/2008 KANE UT PARK/FOREST SRVC

WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING DUE TO WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM
RAINFALL WITH AMOUNTS OF 1.5 INCHES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
UTAH. MANY ROADWAYS DAMAGED AND CLOSED ACROSS REGION.

0445 PM TSTM WND GST 5 ESE OGDEN 41.20N 111.88W
08/31/2008 M61.00 MPH WEBER UT MESONET

OGDEN PEAK MESONET SITE.

0500 PM TSTM WND GST SALT LAKE CITY 40.78N 111.93W
08/31/2008 M61.00 MPH SALT LAKE UT MESONET

UNIVERSITY OF UTAH MESONET SITE.

0525 PM TSTM WND GST 24 SSW DUGWAY 39.92N 112.94W
08/31/2008 E61.00 MPH TOOELE UT MESONET

0625 PM TSTM WND GST 4 NNE CALLAO 39.95N 113.70W
08/31/2008 E67.00 MPH TOOELE UT MESONET

CALLAO MESONET SITE.

&&

$$

MPS

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 010053
SWODY1
SPC AC 010051

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008

VALID 010100Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF UT AND SWRN
WY...AND INTO ADJACENT E CENTRAL NV...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION...

...PORTIONS OF UT...AND ADJACENT E CENTRAL NV/SWRN WY...
STORMS CONTINUE SHIFTING ACROSS UT...WITH THE MAIN SEVERE POTENTIAL
NOW S AND E OF SALT LAKE. GREATEST THREAT NOW APPEARS TO EXIST OVER
W CENTRAL UT...WHERE THE GREATEST SHEAR/INSTABILITY JUXTAPOSITION IS
INDICATED. STRONGER FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO SHIFT ACROSS THIS
REGION WITH TIME...HOWEVER THIS SHOULD BE OFFSET BY A DECREASE IN
INSTABILITY WITH TIME -- PARTICULARLY AFTER SUNSET. WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THIS REGION...BUT EXPECT SEVERE THREAT TO BEGIN
TO WANE LATER THIS EVENING.

...CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...
HURRICANE GUSTAV CONTINUES MOVING NWWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION...TOWARD SERN LA. LATEST NHC FORECASTS THE CENTER OF GUSTAV
TO BE ROUGHLY 70 NM SSE OF BVE /BOOTHVILLE LA/ AT 01/12Z.

WHILE A VERY LIMITED TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF WRN FL...GREATER TORNADO
PROBABILITY IS FORECAST FROM SERN LA EWD INTO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE
TONIGHT...AS LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF
GUSTAV. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO
SWOMCD #2193.

...PARTS OF WRN AND N CENTRAL ND...
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT NEAR SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL NOT OCCUR ACROSS ND...AS PERSISTENT CAPPING CONTINUES TO
PREVAIL. ELEVATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR AND JUST N OF THE
BORDER -- INTO SERN SASKATCHEWAN/SWRN MANITOBA...WHERE WARM
ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE MAXIMIZED. WITH TIME...THIS DEVELOPMENT --
ROOTED ABOVE THE CAPPING LAYER -- SHOULD CONTINUE TO BACKBUILD SWD
INTO WRN ND. SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL FOR HAIL...AND
THUS WILL MAINTAIN LOW /5%/ HAIL PROBABILITY ACROSS PARTS OF N
CENTRAL AND INTO WRN ND.

...WRN SD INTO SERN WY/NERN CO/WRN PORTIONS OF THE NEB PANHANDLE...
ISOLATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INVOF THE LEE TROUGH FROM NERN CO
NEWD TO NEAR THE BLACK HILLS...WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT FEATURING
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL SHEAR. SOME INCREASE IN THE
DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WILL OCCUR WITH TIME ACROSS THIS REGION...BUT
DIURNAL STABILIZATION SHOULD OFFSET THIS -- THUS LIKELY PRECLUDING A
MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN LOW /5%/ HAIL
AND WIND PROBABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION.

..GOSS.. 09/01/2008

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2193

ACUS11 KWNS 010048
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010047
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-010215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2193
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO COAST

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 010047Z - 010215Z

TORNADIC THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A MORE
FAVORABLE KINEMATIC/THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE GUSTAV SHIFTS NWWD TOWARDS THE N-CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO
COAST. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY AROUND 03Z.

NUMEROUS MESOCYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS HAVE PERSISTED OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS OFF THE CNTRL FLORIDA WEST COAST IN THE OUTER
CONVECTIVE BANDS OF HURRICANE GUSTAV. HERE THE NEAR-SHORE
ENVIRONMENT HAS BEEN CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S /PER BUOY 42036 AND COASTAL OBSERVATIONS/...ALONG WITH
LARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS /AS SAMPLED BY 00Z TBW RAOB/. FARTHER
N/NW...STRATIFORM RAIN BANDS...LOWER MEAN MIXING RATIOS...AND MORE
MODERATE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS /PER 00Z LIX AND TLH RAOBS/ SHOULD
MITIGATE OVERALL TORNADIC THREAT IN THE NEAR-TERM.
HOWEVER...EXPECTED NWWD TRACK OF HURRICANE GUSTAV /PER LATEST NHC
GUIDANCE/ WOULD SUGGEST EXTRAPOLATION OF THE MORE FAVORABLE
KINEMATIC PROFILE AND RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL
CORRESPONDINGLY SHIFT NWWD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AS
SUCH...TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE DURING THE LATE EVENING INTO
EARLY MON.

..GRAMS.. 09/01/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...LIX...

29979059 30598985 30968876 31068734 30848572 30268470
29528440 29268532 29338693 28898886 28579022 29079071

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KLIX [010045]: Lixwrklsr 000

NWUS54 KLIX 010045 CCA
LSRLIX

LIXWRKLSR 000
TTAA00 KLIX DDHHMM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SLIDELL LA
730 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008

TIME(CDT) .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE ...EVENT/REMARKS...
....COUNTY LOCATION....

0710 PM NEAR MOUTH OF MISS. RIVER LA TORNADO
08/31/08 PLAQUEMINES REPORTED BY RADIO OPERATOR.

$$

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KLIX [010041]: Lixwrklsr 000

NWUS54 KLIX 010041
LSRLIX

LIXWRKLSR 000
TTAA00 KLIX DDHHMM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SLIDELL LA
730 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008

TIME(CDT) .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE ...EVENT/REMARKS...
....COUNTY LOCATION....

0823 PM NEAR MOUTH OF MISS. RIVER LA TORNADO
08/31/08 PLAQUEMINES REPORTED BY RADIO OPERATOR.

$$

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KMSO [010001]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KMSO 010001
LSRMSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
601 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0314 PM HAIL 1 ENE SALMON 45.18N 113.88W
08/31/2008 E0.75 INCH LEMHI ID TRAINED SPOTTER

0329 PM HAIL 9 WNW DIVIDE 45.80N 112.92W
08/31/2008 E0.88 INCH SILVER BOW MT TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

FOSTER

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KSLC [312346]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KSLC 312346
LSRSLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
546 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0445 PM TSTM WND GST 5 ESE OGDEN 41.20N 111.88W
08/31/2008 M61 MPH WEBER UT MESONET

OGDEN PEAK MESONET SITE.

&&

$$

LCHENG

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KSLC [312337]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KSLC 312337
LSRSLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
537 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 PM TSTM WND GST WENDOVER 40.74N 114.02W
08/31/2008 M65.00 MPH TOOELE UT MESONET

WENDOVER PORT OF ENTRY MESONET SITE.

0200 PM TSTM WND GST WENDOVER 40.74N 114.02W
08/31/2008 M70.00 MPH TOOELE UT MESONET

WENDOVER PEAK MESONET SITE.

0300 PM TSTM WND GST 9 N LAKESIDE 41.33N 112.85W
08/31/2008 M65.00 MPH BOX ELDER UT MESONET

GUNNISON ISLAND MESONET SITE.

0330 PM TSTM WND GST 18 ESE LAKESIDE 41.07N 112.59W
08/31/2008 M71.00 MPH BOX ELDER UT MESONET

HAT ISLAND MESONET SITE.

0330 PM TSTM WND GST 15 W WEST WARREN 41.26N 112.44W
08/31/2008 M77.00 MPH BOX ELDER UT MESONET

PROMONTORY POINT MESONET SITE.

0335 PM TSTM WND GST 11 E LAKESIDE 41.22N 112.67W
08/31/2008 M68.00 MPH BOX ELDER UT MESONET

GREAT SALT LAKE UPR MESONET SITE.

0420 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 W LAYTON 41.08N 112.01W
08/31/2008 DAVIS UT NWS EMPLOYEE

ONE TREE DOWN AND LARGE BRANCHES BROKEN OFF TREES.

0431 PM FLASH FLOOD 10 N KANAB 37.16N 112.52W
08/31/2008 KANE UT PARK/FOREST SRVC

WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING DUE TO WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM
RAINFALL WITH AMOUNTS OF 1.5 INCHES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
UTAH. MANY ROADWAYS DAMAGED AND CLOSED ACROSS REGION.

0500 PM TSTM WND GST SALT LAKE CITY 40.78N 111.93W
08/31/2008 M61.00 MPH SALT LAKE UT MESONET

UNIVERSITY OF UTAH MESONET SITE.

0525 PM TSTM WND GST 24 SSW DUGWAY 39.92N 112.94W
08/31/2008 E61.00 MPH TOOELE UT MESONET

&&

$$

MPS

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KSLC [312324]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KSLC 312324
LSRSLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
524 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0335 PM TSTM WND GST 11 E LAKESIDE 41.22N 112.67W
08/31/2008 M68.00 MPH BOX ELDER UT MESONET

GREAT SALT LAKE UPR MESONET SITE.

0500 PM TSTM WND GST SALT LAKE CITY 40.78N 111.93W
08/31/2008 M61.00 MPH SALT LAKE UT MESONET

UNIVERSITY OF UTAH MESONET SITE.

&&

$$

LCHENG

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KEPZ [312310]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEPZ 312310
LSREPZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
510 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0930 PM FLASH FLOOD 11 S HILLSBORO 32.76N 107.55W
08/30/2008 SIERRA NM TRAINED SPOTTER

OVER 2 FEET OF WATER OVER HIGHWAY 27...COVERING AN AREA
25 FEET WIDE ACROSS THE ROAD.

1150 AM FLASH FLOOD SANTA CLARA 32.78N 108.15W
08/31/2008 GRANT NM NEWSPAPER

3 FEET OF WATER OVER TOP OF ROAD BY SANTA CLARA CREEK.

&&

$$

TRIPOLI

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KGSP [312254]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 312254
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
654 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0550 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 SW CHESTER 34.67N 81.25W
08/31/2008 CHESTER SC COUNTY OFFICIAL

COUNTY REPORTS ONE TREE DOWN ALONG MOUNTAIN LAKES ROAD.

&&

$$

BSH

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KSLC [312250]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KSLC 312250
LSRSLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
450 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0420 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 W LAYTON 41.08N 112.01W
08/31/2008 DAVIS UT NWS EMPLOYEE

ONE TREE DOWN AND LARGE BRANCHES BROKEN OFF TREES.

&&

$$

LCHENG

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KTFX [312236]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 312236
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
436 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0309 PM HAIL BOULDER 46.24N 112.12W
08/31/2008 E0.50 INCH JEFFERSON MT CO-OP OBSERVER

NNW WINDS GUSTED UP TO 42 MILES AN HOUR. 0.11
PRECIPITATION MEASURED.

&&

$$

JNS

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KSLC [312233]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KSLC 312233
LSRSLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
433 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0431 PM FLASH FLOOD 10 N KANAB 37.16N 112.52W
08/31/2008 KANE UT PARK/FOREST SRVC

WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING DUE TO WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM
RAINFALL WITH AMOUNTS OF 1.5 INCHES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
UTAH. MANY ROADWAYS DAMAGED AND CLOSED ACROSS REGION.

&&

$$

BMCINERN

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KGSP [312215]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 312215
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
615 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0550 PM TSTM WND DMG CHESTER 34.71N 81.21W
08/31/2008 CHESTER SC COUNTY OFFICIAL

COUNTY REPORTS ONE TREE DOWN ALONG HW-97.

&&

$$

BSH

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KCHS [312206]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 312206
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
606 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 PM RIP CURRENTS TYBEE ISLAND 32.00N 80.85W
08/31/2008 CHATHAM GA COUNTY OFFICIAL

TYBEE ISLAND LIFEGUARDS REPORTED NUMEROUS RIP CURRENTS.

&&

$$

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2192

ACUS11 KWNS 312158
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312158
WYZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-312330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2192
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0458 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN/W-CENTRAL UT...SERN ID...SWRN WY.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 875...

VALID 312158Z - 312330Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 875
CONTINUES.

CONTINUE WW ALONG/E OF PRIMARY BAND OF CONVECTION...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EWD TOWARD WRN WY BORDER BEFORE
WEAKENING.

WEB CAMERA IMAGERY FROM PROMONTORY POINT SHOWED
WELL-DEVELOPED/TIERED ARCUS CLOUD VISUALLY CHARACTERISTIC OF INTENSE
GUST FRONTS BEFORE 67 KT GUST WAS MEASURED THERE...AND OTHER
OBSERVING STATIONS AROUND LAKE HAVE MEASURED SVR GUSTS AS FEATURE
PASSED. MOST INTENSE WINDS SHOULD PASS OVER I-15 CORRIDOR FROM OGD
NWD TO NEAR ID LINE. HOWEVER...GIVEN SIZE/STRENGTH OF COLD POOL AND
ITS SUPERIMPOSITION ON FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER KINEMATIC PROFILES --
E.G. 40-50 KT 0-6 KM AGL SHEAR -- STG-SVR GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER
N INTO SERN ID AND S ACROSS SLC AREA AS WELL. FOREGOING BOUNDARY
LAYER OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY DEEPLY
MIXED/INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND MRGL BUOYANCY...WITH
MLCAPES UP TO 500 J/KG. DAMAGE POTENTIAL MAY BE GREATEST ON OPEN
EXPOSURES AND LOWER WRN SLOPES WHERE WIND EXPOSURE IS MAXIMIZED FOR
THIS SORT OF COLD POOL GEOMETRY.

..EDWARDS.. 08/31/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RIW...SLC...PIH...LKN...

39941414 40991266 41901227 43491156 43541102 42651056
41491009 40601072 39741160 38961301 38961403 39471419

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KSLC [312155]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KSLC 312155
LSRSLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
354 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 PM TSTM WND GST 9 N LAKESIDE 41.33N 112.85W
08/31/2008 M65.00 MPH BOX ELDER UT MESONET

GUNNISON ISLAND MESONET SITE.

0330 PM TSTM WND GST 18 ESE LAKESIDE 41.07N 112.59W
08/31/2008 M71.00 MPH BOX ELDER UT MESONET

HAT ISLAND MESONET SITE.

0330 PM TSTM WND GST 15 W WEST WARREN 41.26N 112.44W
08/31/2008 M77.00 MPH BOX ELDER UT MESONET

PROMONTORY POINT MESONET SITE.

&&

$$

LCHENG

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KTFX [312143]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 312143
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
343 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 PM HAIL WISE RIVER 45.79N 112.95W
08/31/2008 M0.88 INCH BEAVERHEAD MT PUBLIC

SECOND HAND REPORT FROM NWS MISSOULA

&&

$$

ZUMPFE

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KRAH [312128]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KRAH 312128
LSRRAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
528 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0446 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 S BAILEY 35.70N 78.13W
08/31/2008 WILSON NC COUNTY OFFICIAL

ONE TREE REPORTED DOWN ACROSS ROCK RIDGE SCHOOL ROAD...
NEAR AMBER ROAD.

&&

$$

BSD

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KMSO [312033]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KMSO 312033
LSRMSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
233 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0205 PM HAIL 5 SW BUTTE 45.95N 112.60W
08/31/2008 E0.75 INCH SILVER BOW MT TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORTED 0.5 TO 0.75 INCH HAIL.

0207 PM HAIL BUTTE 46.00N 112.53W
08/31/2008 E0.75 INCH SILVER BOW MT LAW ENFORCEMENT

POLICE OFFICER REPORTED PENNY SIZED HAIL.

&&

$$

FOSTER

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KSLC [312021]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KSLC 312021
LSRSLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
221 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 PM TSTM WND GST WENDOVER 40.74N 114.02W
08/31/2008 M65.00 MPH TOOELE UT MESONET

WENDOVER PORT OF ENTRY MESONET SITE.

0200 PM TSTM WND GST WENDOVER 40.74N 114.02W
08/31/2008 M70.00 MPH TOOELE UT MESONET

WENDOVER PEAK MESONET SITE.

&&

$$

LCHENG

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KSLC [312017]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS55 KSLC 312017
LSRSLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
217 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 N ESCALANTE 37.79N 111.60W
08/30/2008 GARFIELD UT PARK/FOREST SRVC

FLOODING REPORTED ON THE ESCALANTE RIVER. ESCALANTE RIVER
GAGE REPORTED 1088 CFS.

&&

$$

LCHENG

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 311951
SWODY1
SPC AC 311949

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0249 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008

VALID 312000Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE ERN GREAT
BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN W...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE N-CNTRL AND
NERN GULF COAST...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF WRN AND CNTRL
ND...

...ERN GREAT BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN W...

WELL-DEFINED MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW INTO GREAT
BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS
STRONG UPSTREAM JET STREAK ALONG THE PACIFIC NW COAST DIGS SEWD INTO
THE TROUGH BASE. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM LEE CYCLONE
OVER FAR WRN ND SWWD THROUGH W-CNTRL WY...NRN UT AND CNTRL NV WILL
SHIFT EWD IN ADVANCE OF STRENGTHENING UPPER SYSTEM.

TSTMS ARE SLOWLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG FRONT OVER NERN NV/NWRN UT WITHIN A STEEP LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 500 J/KG. STRENGTHENING
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT COUPLED WITH ADDITIONAL BOUNDARY
LAYER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION SHOULD RESULT IN FURTHER STORM
INTENSIFICATION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF
NRN/CNTRL UT...SERN ID AND SWRN WY. REGIONAL VADS AND SHORT TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT VERTICAL SHEAR ALONG FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS MIDLEVEL JET STREAK ROUNDS TROUGH BASE
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AS SUCH...ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE
OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELL AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES WITH THE THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

...N-CNTRL THROUGH ERN GULF COAST...

PER LATEST NHC GUIDANCE...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WILL MOVE
TO JUST OFF THE SERN LA COAST BY 01/12Z. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
STEADY INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/SRH ALONG THE N-CNTRL AND NERN
GULF COAST...N-NE OF THE CYCLONE CENTER. WHILE THIS INCREASE IN
SHEAR WILL OCCUR DURING THE DIURNAL MINIMUM IN INSTABILITY OVER
LAND...A FEW OF THE LAND FALLING SPIRAL BANDS MAY CONTAIN SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF A COUPLE OF BRIEF TORNADOES.

IN THE INTERIM...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A VIGOROUS
SPIRAL BAND CONTAINING A FEW SUPERCELLS IS SITUATED JUST OFF THE
W-CNTRL/SWRN PENINSULAR COASTS WITH ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS OF STORMS
PRESENT OVER THE FL PNHDL. OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND MODEL FORECASTS
SUGGEST THAT THE MOST FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES
WILL REMAIN JUST OFF THE W COAST OF THE FL PENINSULA THROUGH
TONIGHT. NONETHELESS...A MARGINAL THREAT FOR A BRIEF TORNADO AND/OR
LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST WITH ANY MORE INTENSE STORMS
FROM THE FL PNHDL SWD ALONG THE WRN PENINSULAR COAST.

...NRN PLAINS...

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A LEE CYCLONE OVER FAR WRN ND WITH
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM N-CNTRL ND SWWD THROUGH THIS LOW
THROUGH N-CNTRL WY TO SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE OVER NERN NV. A LEE
TROUGH WAS ALSO ANALYZED FROM THE LOW SWD INTO ERN CO. THIS FRONT
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EWD/SEWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...GRADUALLY OVERTAKING LEE TROUGH.

12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATED THE PRESENCE OF A WARM EML/STEEP LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT...BUT ONLY A SHALLOW MOIST PROFILE. THESE DATA SUGGEST
THAT TEMPERATURES OF 95-100F WILL BE REQUIRED TO OVERCOME CAP AND
INITIATE DEEP...MOIST CONVECTION. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS...CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THAT TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY WARMED TO 90-95F E OF LEE TROUGH AND
S OF FRONT OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS. THUS...IT APPEARS THAT
SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. THIS INITIATION MAY PERHAPS BE AIDED BY
A WEAK...LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW LIFTING NEWD THROUGH NWRN WY
INTO S-CNTRL MT.

PORTION OF FRONT OVER ND WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE THE MOST FAVORABLE
COLLOCATION OF 40-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY WHERE THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING
STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. OTHER MORE
ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SWD ALONG LEE TROUGH...ESPECIALLY WITH
FRONTAL/TROUGH OCCLUSION TONIGHT. WHILE A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...THE WEAKENING SHEAR WITH SWD EXTENT ALONG WITH
WEAKENING INSTABILITY SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE
THREAT.

..MEAD.. 08/31/2008

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 875

WWUS20 KWNS 311921
SEL5
SPC WW 311921
IDZ000-UTZ000-WYZ000-010300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 875
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
120 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEAST IDAHO
WESTERN AND NORTHERN UTAH
EXTREME SOUTHWEST WYOMING

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 120 PM UNTIL 900
PM MDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTHEAST OF
POCATELLO IDAHO TO 55 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF DELTA UTAH. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING GRADUALLY IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING EWD ACROSS NE NV. THE
COLD FRONT COINCIDES WITH A DEEPER BAND OF ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING EWD OVER NW NV. EXPECT THE
CONVECTION TO SPREAD EWD THIS AFTERNOON INTO W/NW UT AND SE ID AS
THE COLD FRONT ENCOUNTERS A SOMEWHAT MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT ON THE
WRN FRINGES OF A MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS UT. STRENGTHENING
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND MODEST INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A
LINE OF STORMS ALONG AND E OF THE FRONT...WITH SOME EMBEDDING
BOW/SUPERCELL STRUCTURES POSSIBLE. DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...AS WELL AS ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24030.

...THOMPSON

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KSLC [311834]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KSLC 311834
LSRSLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1234 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 N ESCALANTE 37.79N 111.60W
08/30/2008 GARFIELD UT PARK/FOREST SRVC

FLOODING REPORTED ON THE ESCALANTE RIVER. ESCALANTE RIVER
GAGE REPORTED 1088 CFS.

&&

$$

LCHENG

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2191

ACUS11 KWNS 311805
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311804
UTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-312030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2191
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0104 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL/NE NV...NW UT AND FAR SE ID

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 311804Z - 312030Z

TSTMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTN ACROSS ECNTRL/NE NV AND MOVE
ENE INTO NW UT AND FAR SE ID BY LATE AFTN. A FEW SVR TSTMS WILL BE
PSBL WITH DMGG/SVR WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. WW WILL BE PSBL FOR
PARTS OF THE REGION THIS AFTN/EVE.

RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TRENDS SHOW INCREASED DARKENING OVER N
CA/NW NV...INDICATIVE OF AN AMPLIFYING UPR IMPULSE. THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO TURN ENE AND MOVE TOWARD NW UT AND SE ID LATER THIS
AFTN. LARGER SCALE ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS N NV WAS ALREADY
RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING/DEEPENING FRONTAL CIRCULATION FROM CNTRL
ELKO SWWD INTO WRN NYE COUNTIES IN NV. VSBL SATL/RADAR SHOWS A BKN
BAND OF TSTMS DEVELOPING WITHIN THIS ZONE...ALONG WRN PERIPHERY OF
THE MONSOONAL MSTR PLUME. MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT STRONG SLY
LLVL FLOW WAS ADVECTING NEAR 50 DEG F SFC DEW POINTS NWD. COUPLED
WITH STRONG INSOLATION AND CONTINUED IMPROVING MID-LVL LAPSE
RATES...BUOYANCY WILL CONTINUE INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTN AHEAD OF
THE APCHG FRONT.

BACKING MID-LVL FLOW JUST AHEAD OF THE UPR IMPULSE WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING UNIDIRECTIONALITY TO THE WIND PROFILES. BUT...
SUFFICIENT SPEED/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SHOULD EXIST TO SUPPORT A MIXED
STORM MODE OF BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AND POSSIBLE BRIEF SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES. LARGE HAIL AND DMGG/SVR WIND GUSTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER STORMS.

EXPECT THE TSTMS WILL TAKE A WHILE TO ORGANIZE AS INSTABILITY RAMPS
UP AND PEAKS LATER THIS AFTN AND THE UPSTREAM TROUGH BEGINS TO TURN
ENE. THUS...HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR SVR TSTMS SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL MID-LATE AFTN AND GENERALLY FROM ALONG THE UT/NV BORDER ENE
INTO THE NW UT DESERTS AND FAR SE ID. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PEAK IN
INTENSITY AS IT APCHS THE GREAT SALT LAKE/URBAN CORRIDOR/WASATCH
FRONT BY EARLY EVENING.

..RACY.. 08/31/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SLC...PIH...LKN...

40471143 39691232 38931353 38871422 38921499 39291563
39581586 40581522 41581394 42511208 42501118

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 311655
SWODY2
SPC AC 311654

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1154 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND ERN
GULF COAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

MIDLEVEL TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE NRN ROCKIES INTO GREAT BASIN WILL
LOSE SOME AMPLITUDE WHILE TRANSLATING GENERALLY EWD INTO THE NRN
PLAINS BY TUESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...HURRICANE GUSTAV WILL TRACK
NWWD FROM JUST OFF THE SERN LA COAST INTO CNTRL OR W-CNTRL LA BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...CNTRL ERN GULF COAST...

GIVEN CURRENT NHC TRACK OF GUSTAV...ENVELOPE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR/SRH IN RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF SYSTEM WILL SPREAD INLAND
ACROSS ERN LA...SRN MS...AND PERHAPS AS FAR E AS SRN AL AND THE FL
PNHDL. UNCERTAINTIES EXIST IN THE DISTRIBUTION AND DEGREE OF AIR
MASS DESTABILIZATION. THOUGH...THE GREATEST SUPERCELL/TORNADO
THREAT APPEARS TO BE FROM LATE MORNING INTO EVENING WHEN DIABATIC
HEATING MAY ALLOW FOR CORRIDORS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY.

...UPPER MS VALLEY INTO CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

COLD FRONT INITIALLY FROM NERN ND SWWD INTO NRN WY WILL SHIFT
EWD/SEWD THROUGH THE PERIOD...LIKELY EXTENDING FROM FAR NWRN MN INTO
CNTRL WY BY EARLY EVENING. A LEE TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM
INTERSECTION WITH FRONT OVER NWRN NEB SWD THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH
PLAINS. APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH WILL INDUCE A SLY LLJ ACROSS
PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WHICH SHOULD SERVE TO MAINTAIN AN AXIS OF
60+ F DEWPOINTS FROM CNTRL NEB INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS.
HOWEVER...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
WEAK...LIMITING AFTERNOON MLCAPES TO 1000-1500 J/KG.

FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND DEEP-LAYER ASCENT AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON FROM ERN ND SWWD THROUGH CNTRL SD INTO WRN NEB...AND WWD
ALONG COLD FRONT INTO CNTRL WY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN ACROSS
POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS WITH GENERALLY 30 KT OR LESS ACROSS WARM
SECTOR. WHILE THE MORE INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED BY THE MARGINAL MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND VERTICAL SHEAR.

..MEAD.. 08/31/2008

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KMAF [311642]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMAF 311642
LSRMAF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1141 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 PM FLASH FLOOD MCKITTRICK CANYON 31.98N 104.77W
08/30/2008 CULBERSON TX PARK/FOREST SRVC

OVER A FOOT OF WATER ON 54, EST 5 INCHES RAIN FELL ON MT
AREAS AND 3 INCHES IN FLATES

&&

$$

JGUDMEST

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 311632
SWODY1
SPC AC 311629

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008

VALID 311630Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE N CENTRAL
GULF COAST...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR THE
NW UT AREA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TONIGHT FOR N/NW ND...

...N CENTRAL GULF COAST TONIGHT...
HURRICANE GUSTAV IS MOVING NWWD AT ROUGHLY 15 KT ACROSS THE ERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE LA COAST MONDAY
/SEE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR DETAILS/. THE OUTER NRN/NERN
CONVECTIVE BANDS WILL SPREAD INLAND OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF COAST
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...AND THE PRIMARY INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR AND THE CLOSEST APPROACH OF GUSTAV TO THE COAST WILL OCCUR THE
LAST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT THE THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS
AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES TO INCREASE GRADUALLY LATER THIS EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...THOUGH THE DIURNAL MINIMUM IN INSTABILITY
OVER LAND COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR OVERNIGHT.

...NW UT AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NRN CA THIS MORNING WILL EJECT
EWD/ENEWD TOWARD NW UT/SE ID BY EARLY TONIGHT...WHILE THE LARGER
SCALE MID LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES INLAND OVER THE INTERIOR NW. THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG EARLY SEASON COLD
FRONT. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE WRN FRINGE OF THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME THAT EXTENDS NWD FROM AZ INTO UT. STEEP LAPSE
RATES...SUFFICIENT LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE...AND INCREASING DEEP
LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH
EMBEDDED BOW/SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEFORE INSTABILITY WEAKENS OVERNIGHT.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT...
REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ATOP A
SHALLOW MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S IN
THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS SD/ND. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 95-100 F
NEEDED TO MINIMIZE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...IT APPEARS THAT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL REQUIRE SUSTAINED MESOSCALE ASCENT
ALONG EITHER THE LEE TROUGH ACROSS WRN NEB/SD...OR THE SLOW-MOVING
FRONT ACROSS NW ND TO THE NE OF THE SE LOW IN SW ND. VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL BE STRONGER ALONG THE FRONT IN ND COMPARED TO THE LEE TROUGH
FARTHER TO THE S...THUS THE THREAT FOR MORE ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL
STORMS WILL BE GREATER ALONG THE FRONT IN ND. THE COMBINATION OF
STEEP LAPSE RATES...MODEST CAPE...AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS
OF 40 KT WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING
GUSTS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TONIGHT.

...SRN AND WRN FL TODAY...
THE OUTER ERN BANDS OF GUSTAV ARE IMPACTING THE SRN AND WRN PORTIONS
OF THE FL PENINSULA. HOWEVER...WITH CONTINUED NW MOTION OF THE
STORM...WIND PROFILES WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN ACROSS FL FROM SE TO
NW...AND THE GREATER THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE
ACROSS THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO.

..THOMPSON/GRAMS.. 08/31/2008

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KKEY [311429]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 311429
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1027 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0217 AM TROPICAL STORM 8 ENE FORT JEFFERSON AT 24.69N 82.77W
08/31/2008 GMZ075 XX C-MAN STATION

A WIND GUST OF 60 KTS...OR 69 MPH...WAS MEASURED BY THE
C-MAN STATION ON PULASKI SHOAL LIGHT AT 217 AM EDT. THIS
GUST WAS FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST AND WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE GUSTAV.

0224 AM TROPICAL STORM 10 SW KEY WEST 24.46N 81.88W
08/31/2008 GMZ075 FL C-MAN STATION

A WIND GUST OF 53 KTS...OR 61 MPH...WAS MEASURED BY THE
C-MAN STATION ON SAND KEY LIGHT AT 224 AM EDT. THIS GUST
WAS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND WAS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE
GUSTAV.

0333 AM TROPICAL STORM 8 ENE FORT JEFFERSON AT 24.69N 82.77W
08/31/2008 GMZ075 XX C-MAN STATION

A WIND GUST OF 53 KTS...OR 61 MPH...WAS MEASURED BY THE
C-MAN STATION ON PULASKI SHOAL LIGHT AT 333 AM EDT. THIS
GUST WAS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE GUSTAV.

0433 AM TROPICAL STORM 10 SW KEY WEST 24.46N 81.88W
08/31/2008 GMZ075 FL C-MAN STATION

A WIND GUST OF 53 KTS...OR 61 MPH...WAS MEASURED BY THE
C-MAN STATION ON PULASKI SHOAL LIGHT AT 433 AM EDT. THIS
GUST WAS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE GUSTAV.

0502 AM TROPICAL STORM 8 ENE FORT JEFFERSON AT 24.69N 82.77W
08/31/2008 GMZ075 XX C-MAN STATION

A WIND GUST OF 53 KTS...OR 61 MPH...WAS MEASURED BY THE
C-MAN STATION ON PULASKI SHOAL LIGHT AT 502 AM EDT. THIS
GUST WAS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE GUSTAV.

0657 AM TROPICAL STORM 8 ENE FORT JEFFERSON AT 24.69N 82.77W
08/31/2008 GMZ075 XX C-MAN STATION

A WIND GUST OF 52 KTS...OR 60 MPH...WAS MEASURED BY THE
C-MAN STATION ON PULASKI SHOAL LIGHT AT 657 AM EDT. THIS
GUST WAS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE GUSTAV.

&&

$$

ROSS

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KMFL [311254]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 311254
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
854 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM TORNADO 29 W SWEETWATER 25.76N 80.84W
08/31/2008 MIAMI-DADE FL PUBLIC

PUBLIC DRIVING WEST OF U.S. 41 REPORTED OBSERVING A
TORNADO NEAR 40 MILE BEND.

&&

$$

ROTHFUSS

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 311239
SWODY1
SPC AC 311236

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0736 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008

VALID 311300Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST...

...ERN ID/FAR WRN WY/NRN-CENTRAL UT/FAR E-CENTRAL NV...
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA
EARLY TODAY AHEAD OF DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS
THE PAC NW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. SOME OF THIS EARLY
DAY ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SHIFT EWD DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LEAD
IMPULSE EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY NOW MOVING ACROSS NRN UT CONTINUES
NEWD. HOWEVER...FEED OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY HIGH PW/S
EXTENDING OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES SHOULD SUSTAIN SOME
CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON....ESPECIALLY AS LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES SPREAD NNEWD TROUGH
THE DAY. REGARDLESS...SUFFICIENT HEATING SHOULD OCCUR ALONG WRN
PERIPHERY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE FEED FOR MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND
SUPPORT INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ACTIVITY
SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE FORM OF SMALL LINES AND/OR A FEW MORE DISCRETE
CELLS AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE QUITE STRONG. ALTHOUGH FAST
MOVING SURFACE FRONT MAY SUPPORT A MORE DOMINANT LINEAR EVOLUTION
WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL...WITH SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO DWINDLE AFTER DARK.

...SRN/WRN FL INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...
HURRICANE GUSTAV IS STILL ON TRACK TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER S-CENTRAL LA /REFERENCE LATEST GUIDANCE
FROM TPC/. LARGE AREA OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BEGIN
OVERSPREADING THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TODAY...AND STEADILY INCREASE
THE RISK OF A FEW TORNADOES AS OUTER RAINBANDS BEGIN IMPACTING THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.
EARLY TODAY...FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS MAY SUSTAIN ROTATION
WITH BAND OF STRONGER STORMS PERSISTING OVER SWRN FL. HOWEVER AS
GUSTAV SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF...THIS RISK SHOULD SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.

...ND...
AS A STRONG NE-SW COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS...ASSOCIATED FRONTAL LOW IS FORECAST TO SHIFT ACROSS THE WRN
DAKOTAS. DESPITE THIS...A VERY STOUT CAP IS EXPECTED TO HINDER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE POTENTIAL ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY S OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS
APPEARS TO EXIST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT...AS LOW LEVEL WAA
ASSOCIATED WITH A SLY LOW-LEVEL JET COULD RESULT IN AMPLE MOISTENING
ABOVE THE CAP TO ALLOW ELEVATED STORM DEVELOPMENT TO CREEP SWD INTO
NRN ND. ATTM...WILL MAINTAIN A LOW PROBABILITY HAIL THREAT...AS
INCREASING FLOW ALOFT WOULD PROVIDE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS.

...CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS...
STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY OVER THE
CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF DEEPENING STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE PAC NW. STRONG HEATING/MIXING SHOULD
SUPPORT MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITHIN MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...DEEP ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW
MOVING ACROSS NRN UT SHOULD BOOST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF ERN WY/WRN NE PANHANDLE INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. STRONGER
STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL/WIND NEAR SEVERE LEVELS.

..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 08/31/2008

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KMSO [311046]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KMSO 311046
LSRMSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
446 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1220 AM HAIL 1 W DEER LODGE 46.40N 112.75W
08/31/2008 M0.75 INCH POWELL MT TRAINED SPOTTER

1231 AM HAIL 1 S DEER LODGE 46.38N 112.73W
08/31/2008 M0.75 INCH POWELL MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0320 AM HAIL GEORGETOWN 46.20N 113.25W
08/31/2008 U0.25 INCH DEER LODGE MT PUBLIC

SEVEN GABLES RESORT REPORTED HAIL ONE INCH DEEP.

0350 AM HAIL 1 W DEER LODGE 46.40N 112.75W
08/31/2008 M0.75 INCH POWELL MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0353 AM HAIL 1 S DEER LODGE 46.38N 112.73W
08/31/2008 E0.50 INCH POWELL MT TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

FELSCH

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KKEY [310853]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 310853
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
453 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0110 AM TROPICAL STORM 10 SW KEY WEST 24.46N 81.88W
08/31/2008 GMZ075 FL C-MAN STATION

A GUST OF 57 KNOTS...OR 66 MPH...FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST
WAS REPORTED BY THE SAND KEY LIGHT C-MAN PLATFORM FROM
THE PASSAGE OF A RAINBAND.

0147 AM TROPICAL STORM 6 SSW MARATHON 24.63N 81.11W
08/31/2008 GMZ053 FL C-MAN STATION

A GUST OF 41 KNOTS...OR 47 MPH..FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST
WAS REPORTED BY THE SOMBRERO KEY LIGHT C-MAN PLATFORM
FROM THE PASSAGE OF A RAINBAND.

0152 AM TROPICAL STORM 8 ENE FORT JEFFERSON AT 24.69N 82.77W
08/31/2008 GMZ075 XX C-MAN STATION

A GUST OF 60 KNOTS...OR 69 MPH...FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST
WAS REPORTED BY THE PULASKI SHOAL LIGHT C-MAN PLATFORM
FROM THE PASSAGE OF A RAINBAND.

0106 AM TROPICAL STORM KEY WEST 24.55N 81.76W
08/31/2008 LOWER KEYS IN MONR FL ASOS

A GUST OF 45 KNOTS...OR 52 MPH...FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST
WAS REPORTED BY THE KEY WEST AIRPORT ASOS FROM THE
PASSAGE OF A RAINBAND.

0131 AM TROPICAL STORM CUDJOE KEY 24.67N 81.50W
08/31/2008 LOWER KEYS IN MONR FL PUBLIC

A GUST OF 40 MPH WAS REPORTED BY A CITIZEN WEATHER
OBSERVER PROGRAM CWOP SITE ON CUDJOE KEY.

0150 AM TROPICAL STORM RAMROD KEY 24.66N 81.41W
08/31/2008 LOWER KEYS IN MONR FL PUBLIC

A GUST OF 40 MPH FROM THE SOUTHEAST WAS REPORTED BY A

CITIZEN WEATHER OBSERVER PROGRAM CWOP SITE ON RAMROD KEY.

&&

$$

PFUENTES

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KKEY [310842]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 310842
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
442 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1222 AM TROPICAL STORM 8 SSE KEY LARGO 25.01N 80.38W
08/31/2008 GMZ052 FL C-MAN STATION

A GUST OF 35 KNOTS...OR 40 MPH...FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST
WAS REPORTED THE MOLASSES REEF LIGHT C-MAN PLATFORM FROM
THE PASSAGE OF A SPIRAL RAINBAND.

1223 AM TROPICAL STORM 10 SW KEY WEST 24.46N 81.88W
08/31/2008 GMZ075 FL C-MAN STATION

A GUST OF 58 KNOTS...OR 67 MPH..FROM THE SOUTHEAST WAS
REPORTED BY THE SAND KEY LIGHT C-MAN PLATFORM FROM A
RAINBAND PASSAGE.

1233 AM TROPICAL STORM 8 ENE FORT JEFFERSON AT 24.69N 82.77W
08/31/2008 GMZ075 XX C-MAN STATION

A GUST OF 58 KNOTS...OR 67 MPH...FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST
WAS REPORTED BY THE PULASKI SHOAL LIGHT C-MAN PLATFORM
FROM A RAINBAND PASSAGE.

1236 AM TROPICAL STORM 6 SSW MARATHON 24.63N 81.11W
08/31/2008 GMZ053 FL C-MAN STATION

A GUST OF 36 KNOTS...OR 41 MPH...FROM THE EAST WAS
REPORTED BY THE SOMBRERO KEY LIGHT C-MAN PLATFROM FROM A
RAINBAND PASSAGE.

1205 AM TROPICAL STORM KEY WEST 24.55N 81.76W
08/31/2008 LOWER KEYS IN MONR FL ASOS

A GUST OF 44 KNOTS...OR 51 MPH...FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST
WAS REPORTED BY THE KEY WEST AIRPORT ASOS FROM THE
PASSAGE OF A RAINBAND.

1240 AM TROPICAL STORM LONG KEY 24.82N 80.83W
08/31/2008 MIDDLE KEYS IN MON FL PUBLIC

A GUST OF 43 MPH FROM THE SOUTHEAST WAS REPORTED BY A
CITIZEN WEATHER OBSERVER PROGRAM CWOP SITE ON LONG KEY.

&&

$$

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KKEY [310829]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 310829
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
429 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1124 PM TSTM WND GST 10 SW KEY WEST 24.46N 81.88W
08/30/2008 E0 MPH GMZ075 FL C-MAN STATION

A GUST OF 59 KNOTS...OR 68 MPH...WAS REPORTED AT THE SAND
KEY LIGHT C-MAN PLATFORM FROM THE PASSAGE OF A RAINBAND.

1126 PM TROPICAL STORM 6 SSW MARATHON 24.63N 81.11W
08/30/2008 GMZ053 FL C-MAN STATION

A GUST OF 39 KNOTS...OR 45 MPH...FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST
WAS REPORTED AT THE SOMBRERO KEY LIGHT C-MAN PLATFORM
FROM THE PASSAGE OF A RAINBAND.

1126 PM TROPICAL STORM 8 ENE FORT JEFFERSON AT 24.69N 82.77W
08/30/2008 GMZ075 XX C-MAN STATION

A GUST OF 50 KNOTS...OR 58 MPH...FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST
WAS REPORTED AT THE PULASKI SHOAL LIGHT C-MAN PLATFROM
FROM A RAINBAND PASSAGE.

1148 PM TROPICAL STORM 2 NW LONG KEY 24.84N 80.86W
08/30/2008 GMZ031 FL C-MAN STATION

A GUST OF 34 KNOTS...OR 39 MPH...FROM THE SOUTHEAST WAS
REPORTED FROM THE LONG KEY LIGHT C-MAN PLATFORM FROM THE
PASSAGE OF RAINBAND.

1135 PM TROPICAL STORM KEY WEST 24.55N 81.76W
08/30/2008 LOWER KEYS IN MONR FL ASOS

A WIND GUST OF 48 KNOTS...OR 55 MPH...FROM THE EAST
SOUTHEAST WAS RECORDED AT THE KEY WEST AIRPORT ASOS FROM
THE PASSAGE OF A RAINBAND.

1130 PM TROPICAL STORM LONG KEY 24.82N 80.83W
08/30/2008 MIDDLE KEYS IN MON FL PUBLIC

A WIND GUST OF 42 MPH WAS REPORTED BY A CITIZEN WEATHER
OBSERVER PROGRAM CWOP SITE ON LONG KEY.

1130 PM TROPICAL STORM RAMROD KEY 24.66N 81.41W
08/30/2008 LOWER KEYS IN MONR FL PUBLIC

A WIND GUST OF 39 MPH FROM THE SOUTHEAST WAS REPORTED BY
A CITIZEN WEATHER OBSERVER PROGRAM CWOP SITE ON RAMROD
KEY.

1200 AM TROPICAL STORM UPPER MATECUMBE KEY 24.92N 80.65W
08/31/2008 UPPER KEYS IN MONR FL UNKNOWN

A WIND GUST OF 51 KNOTS...OR 59 MPH...FROM THE SOUTHEAST
WAS REPORTED BY A PRIVATE COMMERICAL WEATHER INSTRUMENT.

&&

$$

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 310824
SWOD48
SPC AC 310823

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0323 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008

VALID 031200Z - 081200Z

...DISCUSSION...
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE/LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...HIGHLIGHTED BY A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
STATES. INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE THE INLAND REMNANTS OF
GUSTAV...WHICH LATEST NHC FORECASTS PLACE ACROSS THE ARKLATEX
VICINITY FOR DAY 4/WEDNESDAY. RESIDUALLY STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW
FIELDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH REMNANT GUSTAV...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL
INTERACTION OF A WEAKENING/STALLING SYNOPTIC FRONT...MAY LEAD TO
LINGERING TORNADO POTENTIAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ARKLATEX/MID-SOUTH/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH DAY
4/WEDNESDAY...AND PERHAPS EVEN DAY 5/THURSDAY. WHILE AT LEAST SOME
TORNADO RISK WILL LIKELY EXIST AS GUSTAV BECOMES INCREASINGLY
EXTRATROPICAL...INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE
POSITIONING/TIMING OF GUSTAV REMNANTS PRECLUDES A DELINEATION OF
SEVERE/TORNADO PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...TROPICAL
SYSTEM HANNA MAY ALSO EVENTUALLY BE A FACTOR FOR TORNADOES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF FL/GA/CAROLINAS LATE THIS WEEK...BUT CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.

..GUYER.. 08/31/2008

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KKEY [310814]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 310814
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
413 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 PM TROPICAL STORM 8 ENE FORT JEFFERSON AT 24.69N 82.77W
08/30/2008 GMZ075 XX C-MAN STATION

A WIND GUST OF 54 KNOTS...OR 62 MPH..FROM THE EAST WAS
RECORDED AT THE PULASKI SHOAL LIGHT C-MAN PLATFORM FROM
THE PASSAGE OF A SPIRAL RAINBAND.

1009 PM TROPICAL STORM 6 SSW MARATHON 24.63N 81.11W
08/30/2008 GMZ053 FL C-MAN STATION

A WIND GUST OF 44 KNOTS...OR 51 MPH...FROM THE EAST WAS
RECORDED AT THE SOMBRERO KEY LIGHT C-MAN PLATFORM FROM
THE PASSAGE OF A SPIRAL RAINBAND.

1031 PM TROPICAL STORM 2 NW LONG KEY 24.84N 80.86W
08/30/2008 GMZ031 FL C-MAN STATION

A WIND GUST OF 34 KNOTS...OR 39 MPH..FROM THE SOUTHEAST
WAS RECORDED AT THE LONG KEY C-MAN PLATFORM FROM THE
PASSAGE OF A SPIRAL RAINBAND.

1041 PM TROPICAL STORM 10 SW KEY WEST 24.46N 81.88W
08/30/2008 GMZ075 FL C-MAN STATION

A WIND GUST OF 58 KNOTS...OR 67 MPH...FROM THE EAST
SOUTHEAST WAS RECORDED AT THE SAND KEY LIGHT C-MAN
PLATFORM FROM THE PASSAGE OF A SPIRAL RAINBAND.

1010 PM TROPICAL STORM KEY WEST 24.55N 81.76W
08/30/2008 LOWER KEYS IN MONR FL ASOS

A GUST OF 38 KNOTS...OR 44 MPH...FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST
WAS REPORTED FROM THE KEY WEST AIRPORT ASOS FROM THE
PASSAGE OF A SPIRAL RAINBAND.

1044 PM TROPICAL STORM LONG KEY 24.82N 80.83W
08/30/2008 MIDDLE KEYS IN MON FL PUBLIC

A WIND GUST OF 42 MPH FROM THE SOUTHEAST WAS REPORTED BY
A CITIZEN WEATHER OBSERVER PROGRAM CWOP SITE ON LONG KEY.
IDENTIFER CWOP0922.

&&

$$

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 310728
SWODY3
SPC AC 310726

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF LA/MS/AR...

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRANSITIONING
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE DAKOTAS/MN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA ON
TUESDAY...WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SPREADING
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS.
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERSELY IMPACT THE
GULF COAST REGION/ARKLATEX VICINITY AS AN UPPER RIDGE PERSISTS OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY/APPALACHIANS.

...ARKLATEX/MID-SOUTH/CENTRAL GULF COAST...
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ON MONDAY...HURRICANE GUSTAV SHOULD MOVE
INLAND/SLOWLY WEAKEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION ON
TUESDAY. REFERENCE NHC GUIDANCE FOR THE LATEST FORECAST DETAILS.
ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE TIMING/POSITIONING OF
GUSTAV AS IT MOVES INLAND...AN ENVELOPE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL
WINDS/SRH WILL EXIST ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF GUSTAV TUESDAY.
AMIDST A VERY MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS WITH 70-75 F
DEWPOINTS...TORNADOES /AND CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE/ WILL
BE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY...SEEMINGLY MOST LIKELY AT THIS TIME
ACROSS PORTIONS OF MS/LA/AR. WHILE ISOLATED TORNADOES/WIND DAMAGE
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...THE GREATEST RISK SHOULD
OCCUR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS INSOLATION BOOSTS NEAR-SURFACE
CAPE/UPDRAFT VIGOR.

...UPPER MIDWEST...
AS UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONT MAKES A STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESSION
ACROSS THE REGION...SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD BE COMMON ALONG
THE FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT
SOME TSTM UPSWING MAY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER HEATS/DESTABILIZES. WITH A LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE LIKELY OWING
TO THE FRONTAL FORCING...POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/MODEST
PREFRONTAL INSTABILITY /1000 J PER KG OR LESS MLCAPE/ AND
FRONT-LAGGING MAXIMUM SHEAR WILL TEND TO LIMIT STRONG STORM
VIGOR/LONGEVITY. WHILE A MARGINAL SEVERE WIND/HAIL RISK WILL EXIST
WITH THE STRONGEST TSTMS...ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

..GUYER.. 08/31/2008

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