SWODY2
SPC AC 311654
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1154 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND ERN
GULF COAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MIDLEVEL TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE NRN ROCKIES INTO GREAT BASIN WILL
LOSE SOME AMPLITUDE WHILE TRANSLATING GENERALLY EWD INTO THE NRN
PLAINS BY TUESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...HURRICANE GUSTAV WILL TRACK
NWWD FROM JUST OFF THE SERN LA COAST INTO CNTRL OR W-CNTRL LA BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
...CNTRL ERN GULF COAST...
GIVEN CURRENT NHC TRACK OF GUSTAV...ENVELOPE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR/SRH IN RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF SYSTEM WILL SPREAD INLAND
ACROSS ERN LA...SRN MS...AND PERHAPS AS FAR E AS SRN AL AND THE FL
PNHDL. UNCERTAINTIES EXIST IN THE DISTRIBUTION AND DEGREE OF AIR
MASS DESTABILIZATION. THOUGH...THE GREATEST SUPERCELL/TORNADO
THREAT APPEARS TO BE FROM LATE MORNING INTO EVENING WHEN DIABATIC
HEATING MAY ALLOW FOR CORRIDORS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY.
...UPPER MS VALLEY INTO CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
COLD FRONT INITIALLY FROM NERN ND SWWD INTO NRN WY WILL SHIFT
EWD/SEWD THROUGH THE PERIOD...LIKELY EXTENDING FROM FAR NWRN MN INTO
CNTRL WY BY EARLY EVENING. A LEE TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM
INTERSECTION WITH FRONT OVER NWRN NEB SWD THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH
PLAINS. APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH WILL INDUCE A SLY LLJ ACROSS
PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WHICH SHOULD SERVE TO MAINTAIN AN AXIS OF
60+ F DEWPOINTS FROM CNTRL NEB INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS.
HOWEVER...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
WEAK...LIMITING AFTERNOON MLCAPES TO 1000-1500 J/KG.
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND DEEP-LAYER ASCENT AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON FROM ERN ND SWWD THROUGH CNTRL SD INTO WRN NEB...AND WWD
ALONG COLD FRONT INTO CNTRL WY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN ACROSS
POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS WITH GENERALLY 30 KT OR LESS ACROSS WARM
SECTOR. WHILE THE MORE INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED BY THE MARGINAL MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND VERTICAL SHEAR.
..MEAD.. 08/31/2008
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